- This was one of the most anticlimactic #1 overall picks in history, with Luck destined to be the top choice long before we even knew who would be making the selection. The Colts are in complete rebuilding mode but with a franchise quarterback now in place the biggest hurdle has now been cleared. There are no sure-thing’s in the NFL Draft but Luck is as close as it gets. My personal gold standard for quarterbacks and prospects in general has always been Peyton Manning, but it is now Andrew Luck. Not only does Luck bring everything to the table that Manning did coming out of college but he is also much more athletic and mobile. In my opinion it’s not a question of if Luck will become one of the three best signal callers in the league, but only a matter of when. This pick was an absolute slam-dunk and the Colts can now go another decade or more without having to worry about the most important position in the game. The onus is now on the Indy front office to surround Luck with talent on both sides of the ball but the road back to contention probably isn’t nearly as long as some might think.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (f/STL): ROBERT GRIFFIN III, QB, BAYLOR
- Just like the top pick, this too was a foregone conclusion as soon as the Redskins traded a King’s Ransom to move up back in March. Despite the steep price I think this was an outstanding decision by Washington because at the end of the day it’s impossible to overpay for a franchise quarterback. Not only is ”RG3” a dynamic talent but he is an even better person off the field and will be an ambassador for both the Redskins and the NFL. With that said, the talk about Griffin being a better prospect than Luck was absurd. I don’t mean that as a slight to Griffin, who would have been the #1 pick in most years, but he will have a bigger adjustment to make at the next level and durability is a concern as well. With that said, don’t be surprised if Griffin outperforms Luck next season since he landed in a much better situation with a solid core of talent already in place. This isn’t going to be a Peyton Manning / Ryan Leaf situation and I believe both Luck and Griffin are going to eventually rank among the leagues premier and most recognizable players.
- There is some debate about whether it is wise to select a running back this early since you can find productive players at the position later in the draft. In fact, I am usually the first one to make that argument. However, if there is an exception to the rule it’s Richardson, who was one of the truly elite prospects in this class and the best running back to come along since Adrian Peterson. The Browns play in a rough and tumble division where the ground game is very important and Richardson will fit right in. Cleveland was criticized by some for giving up a few mid and late round picks to swap spots with the Vikings but the Buccaneers also coveted Richardson and there was a real possibility that Tampa Bay would have leap-frogged them and stolen their guy. Why even take that chance? The Browns now have an extraordinarily competitive workhorse they can build their entire offense around it'll be an upset if Richardson does not emerge as one of the leagues premier runners sooner rather than later.
- On the eve of the draft reports surfaced that the Vikings were seriously considering taking L.S.U. CB Morris Claiborne but as it turns out that was merely a smokescreen. Claiborne is an outstanding player and would have addressed a need in Minnesota, but at the end of the day they couldn’t pass on a franchise left tackle considering how much the organization has invested in quarterback Christian Ponder. Give the Vikings credit for playing the draft game well too, finagling a few extra choices out of the Browns which in essence helped them trade back into round one later on. In Kalil the Vikings get a blue-chip talent at a premium position with the physical tools and intangibles to rank amongst the leagues best. Ponder will sleep better at night now knowing that the team has someone to slow down the likes of Julius Peppers, Clay Matthews and Cliff Avril.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (f/TB): JUSTIN BLACKMON, WR, OKLAHOMA ST.
- It appeared as though the Jags were in a very difficult position, owning the seventh pick in what most considered to be a five or six player draft. Everyone assumed Jacksonville would trade down, but they went the other direction and moved up to land the best wide receiver in this class. And all it cost them was a fourth round pick! Now I don’t think Blackmon is an elite prospect and am on the record as saying he profiles as more of a low-end #1 at the next level, but there is nothing wrong with that. I’ve compared Blackmon to Anquan Boldin throughout the entire process and if he has that type of career this choice will be a homerun. The additions of Blackmon and Laurent Robinson in free agency have dramatically improved what was by far the worst receiving corps in the league and now young quarterback Blaine Gabbert has some weapons to throw to. Not only did Jacksonville land the top rated player in the draft at a position of need but they were able to do it at a bargain basement price, which is a winning recipe in my book.
- Nobody saw this coming! It’s wasn’t necessarily a shock to see the Rams trade out, especially with Blackmon off the board, but Dallas was never mentioned as a possibility to jump up this far. What a great move though! The Cowboys had to give up their second round pick to get the deal done, but that is less than the trade value chart called for and it’s never cheap to make this type of move at the top of a draft. Dallas had already upgraded a leaky secondary with free agent Brandon Carr and the addition of Claiborne has now turned a weakness into a strength. One of the top five, if not top three, prospects in this class, Claiborne is a rangy, athletic cover guy in the mold of Joe Haden. With two stud corners the Cowboys can now be more aggressive in the front seven, which could take their defense to a whole new level and make DeMarcus Ware very happy.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (f/JAC): MARK BARRON, S, ALABAMA
- On the face this makes sense. Safety was a huge problem area for the Bucs and Barron was the clear-cut top prospect at that position in this class. With that said, I can’t agree with the decision to pass on L.S.U. CB Morris Claiborne, especially when only getting a fourth round pick in return. Claiborne is potentially a shutdown corner, which is one of the most valuable commodities in the game, so to give up the opportunity to acquire a guy like that for just a mid-rounder is questionable at best. That’s not a knock on Barron though, who is a very safe prospect that a number of teams had their eye on. Barron is a force in the box who has also shown some range and playmaking ability in coverage and he will be the field general for an up and coming young defense. In short, I like Barron and he will undoubtedly be a terrific fit in Tampa but it would have taken considerably more than what the Buccaneers got from Jacksonville for me to move down.
- First let’s all be clear that this wasn’t a Christian Ponder situation where a second round value got pushed up into the top dozen picks. Tannehill is a legitimate first round talent with all the physical tools and intangibles you look for in a potential franchise quarterback. With that out of the way, this was the right pick for a Dolphins organization that hadn’t selected a signal caller in the first round since Dan Marino in 1983. Miami was in that gray area where they weren’t good enough to be consistently competitive but not bad enough to the point where they would be picking at the top of a draft and get a shot at an Andrew Luck-level prospect. At some point they were going to have to roll the dice and Tannehill is worth the risk. Now Tannehill isn’t a sure thing and will require some development, but that patience could pay off in a big way down the road. The Dolphins new offensive coordinator Mike Sherman actually coached Tannehill in college so there is a familiarity there on both sides and with David Garrard and Matt Moore in place as veteran stop-gaps Miami can afford to bring him along slowly. Ideally the Phins will take the same approach with Tannehill that the Tennessee Titans did with Jake Locker, allowing their quarterback of the future to sit and learn for at least a year. If rushed, the consequences could be disasterous.
CAROLINA PANTHERS: LUKE KUECHLY, LB, BOSTON COLLEGE
- The consensus seemed to be that Carolina was targeting Fletcher Cox of Mississippi St. to provide the dynamic presence that the middle of their defensive line is lacking. However, it’s hard to argue against Kuechly, a tackling machine who might be the safest prospect in this class. One of the most productive linebackers in the history of college football, Kuechly has amazing instincts and is an underrated athlete who can play either inside or outside. Granted linebacker wasn’t the Panthers most pressing need but there is some uncertainty at the position with both Jon Beason and the Thomas Davis both coming off injuries. David in particular can't be counted on at this point. This wasn’t a flashy choice but when we look back on the 2012 NFL Draft in ten years it will look very, very good.
BUFFALO BILLS: STEPHON GILMORE, CB, SOUTH CAROLINA
- In the months leading up to the draft Gilmore was viewed by most as a borderline first round talent but he shot up draft boards late in the process due to an impressive combination of physical tools and intangibles. Cornerback was actually a much bigger need for the Bills than most realized and after juicing up their pass rush in free agency with Mario Williams and Mark Anderson they had made upgrading the secondary a priority in the draft. Mission accomplished as Gilmore will step right into the starting lineup and has the potential to be a top-flight cover guy, even though he didn’t always look like a Top 10 pick with the Gamecocks. The Bills have to find an offensive tackle and wide receiver at some point, but there should be good value at both positions in rounds two and three.
- I had Poe going to the Chiefs in my mock drafts for months before changing it in the final version. Doh! This was a fantastic choice for Kansas City though and gives them the stud nose tackle they need to anchor their odd front. Anyone who knows football will tell you that the nose tackle is the engine that drives any good 3-4 defense and Poe could be for Kansas City what Vince Wilfork was for their GM Scott Pioli in New England. Poe has been criticized for not being overly productive, but I am not sure what people were expecting. The guy is a nose tackle, not Ndamukong Suh! Poe’s job is to occupy blockers which allows teammates to make the splash plays. I actually compared Poe’s numbers as a junior to those of Haloti Ngata, B.J. Raji and Phil Taylor at the same point in their careers and they were very similar. Poe is the type of rare, freakish physical specimen that doesn’t come along very often and he will shore up what was a sub par run defense.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (f/SEA): FLETCHER COX, DT, MISSISSIPPI ST.
- Cox falling this far was somewhat unexpected, but the Eagles trading up to land him was not. Philadelphia tends to focus on offensive and defensive linemen in round one and they had been linked to Cox for a while, although it was unclear if they would be willing to move into the Top 10 to land him. That decision became much easier as Cox began to slide and the cost to move up became more reasonable. In many ways Cox is a defensive end in a defensive tackle’s body and he will step right into a strong defensive line rotation in Philly, providing an impact, playmaking presence on the interior. Cox was well-liked around the league amongst scouts and had the talent to come off the board a half dozen picks earlier so it’s not quite clear why he was available longer anticipated, but the Eagles were only too happy to take advantage of the situation.
- Despite a glaring need along the offensive line the Cardinals felt like they couldn’t pass on Floyd, who is arguably just as talented as Justin Blackmon but had some off-the-field baggage that pushed him down draft boards a bit. Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald both hail from Minnesota and actually had a pre-existing relationship so this is an ideal situation in which the veteran can teach the rookie all the tricks of the trade and, perhaps more importantly, how to be a professional. It also doesn’t hurt to provide the disappointing Kevin Kolb with another weapon considering how much the organization has invested in their starting quarterback. Floyd will play the same role in Arizona’s offense that Anquan Boldin did and the Cardinals once again have a dynamic one-two punch at wideout.
ST. LOUIS RAMS (f/DAL): MICHAEL BROCKERS, DT, L.S.U.
- After just missing out on Justin Blackmon before trading down the Rams once again see a top wide receiver come off the board right in front of them. However, there will be some quality pass catchers available in round two. Many felt there was a strong possibility the Rams would take Mississippi St. DT Fletcher Cox at #6 overall but they reportedly had a slightly higher grade on Brockers and were able to land him down the line a bit while also picking up an extra second rounder. An imposing physical specimen with a very large frame, Brockers is still raw after entering the draft as a redshirt sophomore but he has the potential to be one of the best defensive players to come out of this class. Brockers, who excels versus the run but a work in progress as a pass rusher, will team with free agent acquisition Kendall Langford, last year’s first rounder Robert Quinn and Chris Long to give St. Louis one of the most talented young defensive lines in the league.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (f/PHI): BRUCE IRVIN, OLB, WEST VIRGINIA
- WHOA! There is always a surprise or two on Draft Day and there is little doubt that this was it. Irvin, who wasn’t even a full-time starter in college, was expected to come off the board in the middle to late portion of round two. In fairness Irvin is an explosive pass rusher with outstanding speed who is a demon off the edge, but that is about all the guy does. So can you justify selecting a one-tricky pony with a single special trait this early? Not in my opinion, but the Seahawks obviously felt differently. Irvin will be a situational pass rusher in Seattle and could excel in that role but it’s hard to envision him being anything more in the near future. The Jaguars received a lot of criticism when they reached for Tyron Alualu at #10 a couple of years ago but at least he was widely considered to be a potential late first rounder. Irvin at #15 overall makes Alualu look like a steal.
- There was a lot of speculation about how far Coples might fall because despite Top 10 talent he did not have the big senior season that most were expecting and scouts questioned his work ethic and motor. In the end Coples didn’t drop too far, landing in a very interesting situation. The Jets plan to use Coples at defensive end in their 3-4 scheme, where he will team with last year’s first rounder Muhammad Wilkerson. That might actually be a good fit for Coples, who is certainly big enough to get the job done in that role with the frame to bulk up even further. Of course Coples won’t be able pin his ears back and rush the passer as much as he’d probably prefer, but in reality it’s not like he was all that explosive off the edge anyway. There is definitely some boom or bust potential with Coples but at this point in round one the possible rewards outweigh the risks.
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