• With the exception of specialists (sorry kickers, punters and long-snappers) no position gets less attention than center and for the most part that also holds true on Draft Day. In this decade there have only been three centers chosen in round one (Jeff Faine '03, Chris Spencer '05, Nick Mangold '06) and at best there is usually only two or three taken on the first day of the draft. That could all change next April though because the 2009 NFL Draft features an embarrassment of riches at the center position.

    Topping the list is Cal's Alex Mack and in my opinion he is a legitimate first round pick. Whether you're talking about run blocking or pass blocking, measurables or intangibles, Mack is the total package. As I mentioned it's rare for a true center to come off the board in round one but Mack could defy those odds. After that there is some discrepancy as to who is #2 and you'd probably get a bunch of different answers depending on who you ask but odds are it will be one of three guys. Arkansas' Jonathan Luigs is the reigning Rimington Trophy winner and even though he might not be quite the pro prospect his press clippings would lead you to believe that doesn't mean he isn't a very good player. In a lot of ways Luigs is a poor-man's Alex Mack because he basically does everything well but is just a notch below Mack across the board. Perhaps the most intriguing center prospect is Oregon's Max Unger, who might not even be a center. Even though Unger isn't as physical, athletic or mobile as guys like Mack and Luigs he makes up for it with his versatility. In fact, Unger could realistically project to center, tackle or guard at the next level. Then there is Louisville's Eric Wood, who I think is a little underrated at this point. When it comes to working out in shorts Wood isn't going to be overly impressive but the guy is a true football player who understands the game and plays it with a nasty demeanor. I'd be remiss if I didn't also mention Antoine Caldwell of Alabama, who doesn't have great size but is an experienced four-year starter in the SEC and could be a mid-rounder.

    As I pointed out Mack has a shot at breaking into the first round but there is also a chance that Luigs, Unger and even Wood could all be second rounders as well and they should all be off the board before the end of round three. Now that is impressive! Not only is this one of the strongest groups of centers to come along in many years but it's quite possibly the best collection of talent that I have seen at the position in my 15+ years of observing and covering the NFL Draft. Needless to say this is a great time to be a team in the market for a pivot.

• Two potential Day One picks in the 2009 NFL Draft have unfortunately seen their college careers come to a premature end due to relatively serious injuries.

    Wisconsin's Travis Beckum, one of the nation's top senior tight ends, fractured his left fibula against Illinois on October 25. Beckum underwent successful surgery to repair the break but he will not play again this year. A first-team All-American as a junior, Beckum battled shoulder and hamstring ailments early in the '08 season before breaking his leg and finished the year with 23 receptions for 264 yards and no touchdowns in just 6 games. It remains to be seen if this injury will affect Beckum's ability to participate in the post-season All-Star games such as the Senior Bowl or work out at the Scouting Combine but this is certainly a major setback for him. Prior to the injury I thought Beckum might have a chance at breaking into the latter part of round one but when you factor in his one-dimensional style and the health issues he is probably more of a second or even third rounder at this point.

    Maryland cornerback Kevin Barnes, who had already received a Senior Bowl invite, fractured his shoulder-blade against Wake Forest on October 18 and after surgery he will have to rehab for five or six months. Needless to say that time frame will prohibit him from playing in the Senior Bowl but he is hoping to be healthy enough to take part in the Scouting Combine. One of the top senior cover guys in the country, Barnes could still work his way into the second round but even in a worst-case scenario it's pretty unlikely he would get past Round 4.

    Speaking of Barnes, this is a great opportunity to show the clip of him lighting up Cal's Jahvid Best back in September, which is one of the best hits of the year:

• I have already talked at length about how weak this crop of senior quarterbacks is and about how the '09 Draft is going to rely heavily on underclassmen signal callers. Everyone knows about Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez and even Josh Freeman but there is another junior quarterback who could be a factor in the 2009 NFL Draft: Nate Davis of Ball St.

    Davis might not play for a big-time program but recent history has shown it would be a mistake to sleep on those MAC quarterbacks. Guys like Ben Roethlisberger, Chad Pennington, Byron Leftwich, Charlie Frye, Bruce Gradkowski (as well as a handful of others) have parlayed their success in the Mid-American Conference into successful pro careers and Davis will likely follow in their footsteps. The big knock on Davis is his size because he checks in at a shade under 6-2 but he does have a solid build (217 lbs.) and is also a pretty good athlete. A three-year starter who has been extremely productive for the Cardinals, Davis has the arm strength to make all the throws and when it comes to intangibles he gets high marks across the board. The guy is just a winner, a leader and tough as nails.

    Where Davis would project in the draft if he came out early would obviously depend on which other underclassmen signal callers opt to come out but it's not a stretch to think he would immediately leapfrog all of the seniors at his position on most draft boards around the league. Personally, with the possible exception of Rhett Bomar there isn't another senior quarterback in the country I'd take over Davis. Right now I see Davis as a legitimate second or third round possibility if he does come out, regardless of which other underclassmen go pro.

    So while all your draftnik friends are touting the achievements of Central Michigan's Dan LeFevour, another MAC quarterback, you should drop the name Nate Davis into the conversation. Davis may not get nearly the amount of national attention that LeFevour does but he is actually a better pro prospect.

• The 2009 NFL Draft is still a long ways off but if the Cincinnati Bengals end up with the #1 overall pick, which is a distinct possibility considering they are still winless at 0-8, I think there is a pretty good chance that they would trade it.

    Unlike a lot of teams that are in contention for the top overall selection Cincinnati is set at the quarterback position with Carson Palmer so they could put the pick on the market and let teams like Detroit, Kansas City and San Francisco bid against each other. If the Bengals kept the pick a guy like Chris "Beanie" Wells would address their most glaring need but considering the financial commitment required it just doesn't make sense to use the #1 pick on a running back these days, let alone one with durability concerns. The other option would probably be James Laurinaitis or Rey Maualuga and while they would certainly provide a huge upgrade at middle linebacker it remains to be seen if either will ultimately rank among the top handful of prospects in this draft. Some might say that an offensive lineman like Andre Smith would be Plan "A" if the Bengals wound up with the top pick but even though they have struggled mightily up front in 2008 I'm not convinced. Cincy already has a bunch of money tied up in Levi Jones and Stacy Andrews, not to mention Andrew Whitworth who could also kick outside to tackle, and if they did want to go the offensive line route they could easily move down 2-3 picks and still get a top blocker such as Smith, Michael Oher or Eugene Monroe.

    Georgia's Matthew Stafford is considered to be almost a mortal lock to come out early and if both Sam Bradford and Mark Sanchez opt to stay in school he will be an extremely valuable commodity on Draft Day. There are plenty of teams in desperate need of a top young signal caller and Stafford might wind up being the only game in town. Cincinnati shouldn't expect to get a blockbuster deal for #1 because in today's landscape teams just aren't willing to give up a king's ransom to move up in the draft. However, you have to think Kansas City would be willing to part with a decent compensation package to land Stafford and avoid another year of that Croyle / Huard / Thigpen three-headed monster.

    We're only at the halfway point of the NFL season and if the Bengals manage to pull off a couple of wins down the stretch this could all be a moot point. However, if Cincinnati does "earn" the #1 overall pick in the '09 Draft it could set up a number of interesting scenarios and add additional layers of intrigue and excitement to what's become one of the most popular events in all of sports.

• In case you had any doubts about how stacked USC is in the talent department even their backups are now emerging as exceptional NFL prospects.

    Clay Matthews began his college career as a walk-on at Southern Cal in 2004 but despite making a name for himself as a special teams standout he only had two career starts heading into his senior year. In fact, Matthews began the 2008 season in a backup role as well but as it turns out he was just too good to keep off the field. Playing a hybrid DE / OLB that the Trojans call the "elephant" position Matthews is 5th on the team in tackles, has accumulated 4.5 TFL and his 3.5 sacks is more than double the totals of Rey Maualuga and Brian Cushing combined. As far as the next level is concerned many scouts feel Matthews is capable of projecting to any of the linebacker positions or perhaps defensive end but in my opinion he looks like a prototypical 3-4 outside linebacker.

    Needless to say his breakout season has sent Matthews' draft stock skyrocketing and like his father Clay, who played in the NFL from 1978 to 1996, and his uncle Bruce, who is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame following a 19-year career with the Houston Oilers / Tennessee Titans, he will soon be drawing a paycheck from the NFL. After entering his senior season as a late rounder or undrafted free agent possibility Matthews is now a potential mid-round pick and I would not be at all surprised if he is a second or third round pick when all is said and done. I currently have Matthews as the #7 senior outside linebacker in my rankings but after recently seeing him in action again against Arizona I'd say there is an excellent chance he will move up even further in the near future.

    Keep a close eye on Matthews, he is becoming a very intriguing prospect.

• The 49'ers finally pulled the plug on Head Coach Mike Nolan this week but even though the win / loss record may not show it he actually left that franchise in much better shape than it was in when he found it.

    In the interest of full disclosure I have to admit I am a fan of Nolan's. San Francisco has coached in the Senior Bowl the past few years and in that time I've come to like Nolan and his style. He's smart, funny and more importantly he knows football. Things didn't work out in San Fran but I still think he can be a successful coach in the NFL and at the very least he will be a fantastic defensive coordinator.

    Ultimately I think it was the Alex Smith pick, instability on the coaching staff and their inability to shore up the defensive front seven that doomed Nolan but when you look at the core group of players that the 49'ers will build around they were all brought in during Nolan's tenure. Frank Gore. Patrick Willis. Joe Staley. Nate Clements. Sure there were also plenty of acquisitions that ended up being clunkers but those are four high-quality, Pro Bowl-caliber players that were brought into the fold under his watch and I guarantee you there are plenty of teams that have had no where near that level of success on the player personnel front in the same time period. Nolan probably deserved to be fired but he also laid a solid foundation in San Francisco that their next coach will benefit from.

    Speaking of the next head coach, Mike Singletary got the gig for the rest of this year and barring a complete collapse they will probably offer him a long-term pact after the season. Despite his relative inexperience I think Singletary is a rising star in the coaching world and he should do a fine job in San Francisco. It sounds like he will be more of a manager and motivator than an X's and O's guy but there is certainly nothing wrong with that. Looking ahead to next offseason, the Niners have plenty of holes to fill and will once again own a very high draft pick. Whether it be a quarterback, an offensive lineman, a wide receiver or a pass rusher the Niners need to land an impact player with that Top 10 pick. Personally, I think finding a signal caller should be their #1 priority so they'd better hope a bunch of underclassmen come out early.

    Even though there is still plenty of work to be done in San Francisco the franchise isn't in nearly as deep of a hole as it was 4-5 years ago. The Niners are at least two years away from contending for a playoff spot but they aren't a lost cause like some teams (Sorry Detroit) and there is plenty of hope for the future.

• When it comes to running backs in the NFL Draft underclassmen are the lifeblood. The '08 Draft provided a perfect example as 8 of the first 10 running backs selected were juniors. However, that mass exodus left this year's senior class extremely thin and it doesn't look like there will be one selected in the first round. That just opens the door for more youngsters though. Everyone knows about Beanie Wells, Knowshon Moreno, LeSean McCoy and C.J. Spiller but there are couple of other underclassmen shooting up draft boards who might have a decision to make in January.

    Iowa's Shonn Greene is an extremely impressive physical specimen at 5-11 and 235 pounds and while he doesn't have great speed (4.60?) it is adequate for a guy his size. In just 8 games this season Greene has already gone over 1,000 yards and is averaging 6.5 yards per carry to go along with 10 touchdowns. Greene actually sat out the 2007 season while he attended a community college to get his grades in order and also attended a prep school for a year before joining the Hawkeyes so he's a bit older than the normal redshirt junior. It will be interesting to see whether Greene's age (24-years-old next fall) and the outstanding season he is having will push him toward leaving early for the pros.

    Connecticut's Donald Brown hasn't take quite as interesting of a path to success as Greene but the on-field results have been every bit as impressive. After redshirting in 2005 Brown stood out in a part-time role early in his college career, rushing for more than 800 yards in '06 and '07, but to say he has taken things to the next level in 2008 would be an understatement. In fact, Brown is actually leading the nation in rushing through 7 games with 1,174 yards (5.7 avg.) and has also reached the endzone 12 times. At 5-10 and 210 lbs. Brown has decent size and can run inside but even though his timed speed (4.50) is merely average he has also shown the ability to get outside and turn the corner.

    There is no question that, as usual, underclassmen running backs are going to play a huge role in the 2009 NFL Draft. Greene and Brown might not be household names yet but they have both probably moved into the third round area should they choose to come out early and Day One is very real a possibility.

• If you didn't notice I updated the Mock Draft today so be sure to check it out.


    One of the most difficult things about doing mocks this time of the year is deciding which underclassmen to incorporate. You obviously can't include just seniors because then any semblance of accuracy goes right out the window. Not that mocks done six months in advance are going to be overly accurate anyway. However, it's easy to overdo it as well and if you used every underclassmen who could technically come out there would probably only be 5-10 seniors in the first round. It's a very fine line. Essentially what I try to do is limit myself to about a dozen juniors or redshirt sophomores and then use a combination of sources and my own best judgment to make educated guesses about who is most likely to come out early. It's certainly not a scientific process but there really is not much else you can do this far in advance.

    Without question the toughest decisions I had to make with this mock was whether or not to include Sam Bradford and / or Mark Sanchez. As always there are plenty of teams in need of an upgrade at quarterback and with such a dearth of talent in the senior class there is a terrific opportunity for underclassmen signal callers to come out and fill the gaps. However, I opted not to include either Bradford or Sanchez this time around, even though they could both potentially be Top 10 picks. The main reason behind excluding them is I just don't think they will come out this year. When it comes to quarterbacks scouts place a huge emphasis on experience and neither Bradford or Sanchez have it. In fact, a study by Football Outsiders in their Pro Football Prospectus book determined that college starting experience is one of the key determining factors for successful NFL signal callers. Basically it said that the more you played in college the better chance you had of making it at the next level. Bradford is in his second year as the Sooners starter but it is very rare to see a redshirt sophomore quarterback enter the draft, let alone come off the board in round one. To the best of my knowledge it has only happened once in the last 15 years and that was Michael Vick in 2001. There is no question that Bradford is getting a lot of buzz right now and some even feel he is a better prospect than Matthew Stafford but I still have some reservations. Bradford certainly has the size you look for and he is extremely accurate but average arm strength and a lack of experience make me hesitate. Also, even though he is putting up some impressive statistics it's important to keep in mind that he's doing it in a hurry-up shotgun offense. As for Sanchez, he has all the physical tools you look for in a franchise quarterback but this is just his first year as the Trojans starter and he has struggled to stay healthy in that limited action. I will concede that if Bradford or Sanchez opted to enter the 2009 NFL Draft there is a good chance that at least one of them would be a Top 10 overall pick, maybe even Top 5, but at this point I have been given absolutely no indication that either of them are seriously considering going pro early and history leads me to believe they won't.

    The underlying caveat in all of this is a rumored rookie salary cap that could be on the horizon. If people around Bradford, Sanchez or any of the other top underclassmen convince them that a rookie pay scale is imminent they might opt to strike while the iron is hot rather than wait a year and potentially risk losing tens of millions of dollars. I am on the record as being a fierce supporter of getting these outrageous rookie contracts under control but personally I don't see anything happening on that front in the near future and certainly not soon enough to affect the 2009 NFL Draft and maybe not even 2010. However, all it takes is one person to get in these kids ears and convince them a cap is looming.

    Anyone who likes to sketch out early mock drafts struggles with which underclassmen to include and which ones to leave out and there really is no precise formula. Fortunately the official deadline for underclassmen to declare is only a few months away so we'll have a concrete pool of players soon enough!!!

• Every year we see prospects who played one position in college get asked to move to a new position in the NFL but it looks as though Oklahoma's Nic Harris is already getting a jump start on the process.

    After playing free and strong safety for most of his career the Sooners recently moved Harris to middle linebacker to replace Ryan Reynolds, who is out for the season with a knee injury. As a safety I have always felt Harris was overrated because despite his 6-3, 230 lb. frame he only runs in the 4.65 - 4.70 range, which isn't going to cut it at the next level. However, Harris now goes from a slow, in-the-box safety to a speedy, athletic linebacker and his pro prospects all of the sudden look a whole lot brighter.

    Harris is still obviously a work in progress and whether or not he is physical enough to play linebacker remains to be seen but at least scouts will now have some extensive film of him playing the position so it won't be as much of a projection. If Harris can show an aptitude for the position down the stretch he could potentially come off the board as early as the mid-rounds, most likely as a weakside linebacker. Could he be the next Cato June? An added bonus is how well Harris has handled the move because by all accounts he has embraced it and been a real team player. It will be interesting to watch Harris the rest of this season and the post-season All-Star games will be a great opportunity to see where he is in his development but, at least in my opinion, he has now gone from a late round afterthought to a relatively intriguing prospect.

• We don't see many legitimate two-sport stars in the NFL Draft, at least not to the point where it could potentially affect their desire to play pro football, but we could have the next Jeff Samardzija on our hands in Eric Decker of Minnesota.

    Decker has carried the momentum from his breakout sophomore campaign ( 67 REC | 909 YDS | 9 TD's ) over into the 2008 season and he has already caught 59 balls for 782 yards and 5 touchdowns in the Gophers high-powered spread attack. The 6-2, 215 pound Decker is quickly emerging as one of the top junior wide receiver prospects in the country and he could ultimately be a second or third round pick, whether it be next year or down the line in 2010.

    This is where it gets a little tricky though...

    Like Samardzija before him Decker is also a very good baseball player and by all accounts a legitimate Major League talent. The question then becomes is he a good enough baseball prospect that the Major League's could lure him away from a potential NFL career? I posed this question to Jim Callis of Baseball America and he doesn't seem to think so. According to Callis Decker would be, at best, a 3rd round pick in next spring's Amateur Draft, which is certainly nothing to sneeze at. However, in order for Decker to match the $1.5 to $3 million guaranteed he might get as a 2nd or 3rd round pick in the NFL Draft some Major League team would have to select him in the middle of round one. So, assuming it comes down to dollars and cents (at least in his first contract) it looks like it will be more lucrative for Decker to go the football route. Now if Decker truly loves baseball more then all bets are off...

    Keep an eye on Decker because he could be one of those guys who opts to come out early to take advantage of a rather lackluster crop of senior wideouts.

• Kickers generally don't get a lot of attention and for the second consecutive year there isn't a slam-dunk draftable prospect at the position. While there may not be anyone in the same league as guys like Nate Kaeding, Mike Nugent and Mason Crosby when they were coming out of college there are some interesting prospects and perhaps the most intriguing of all is Jose Martinez out of U.T.E.P.

    Martinez spent two years at Bakersfield College and then redshirted in 2006, his first year with the Miners. Martinez finally got his opportunity in 2007 and the results were very solid as he connected on 17 of 20 field goal attempts with a long of 57. Martinez is off to a good start in 2008 as well and through six games he has converted 11 of 15 attempts with a long of 64 yards. Yes, you read that right, 64 yards!

    The ability to hit those long field goals definitely catches your eye but what impresses me most about Martinez is that he also makes the ones he supposed to. Of the seven field goal attempts he has missed in the last two years five of them have been from beyond 50 yards. That means from 49 yards on in he is 26 of 28 (93%). As a prospect Martinez is still raw, needs to get more loft under his kicks and hasn't necessarily been tested in many pressure situations in college but he has a lot of upside and the tools to be a starter at the next level. In addition to field goals Martinez is capable of handling kickoffs and has also proven adept at executing successful onside kicks.

    Right now I have Martinez as my top rated kicker for the 2009 NFL Draft and while that doesn't mean he is going to be an early pick I feel he is worth taking a flyer on in the late rounds. Martinez has the potential to move up further depending on how he performs down the stretch and in the All-Star games but I, for one, really like his combination of leg strength and consistency.

• I am often asked my opinion on the best way to develop quarterbacks and when someone recently brought it up again on the message boards I thought it sounded like a great topic for the blog.

    First of all it's important to note that, like at other positions, some quarterbacks are just busts. Whether they were misevaluated in the first place or just didn't have what it takes there will be times that guys simply don't pan out. With that said here is my playbook for developing a franchise quarterback:

The Golden Rule

    The Golden Rule of the NFL Draft is that unless you already have a franchise quarterback you don't pass on one. This is a phrase all NFL teams should live by. Quarterback is the most important position in the game and if you neglect it odds are it will come back to haunt you. And I don't want to hear about how the Ravens won a Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer. Sure they overcame Dilfer's mediocre play but they also had to have one of the best defenses of all time to do it. Oh, and Dilfer was a former #6 overall pick by the way. The reality is that 99% of the NFL's best teams have good quarterbacks. That is not a coincidence.

Philosophy

    I am a big proponent of taking quarterbacks early in the draft. As I have detailed the success rate for finding elite signal callers in the second and third round is abysmal and even though Tom Brady was a late round pick and Tony Romo was an undrafted free agent they were rare exceptions, not the rule. Selecting quarterbacks in the Top 10 overall is a risky proposition, especially these days with rookie contracts spiraling out of control, but with great risk also comes great reward. For every Ryan Leaf or Akili Smith there is a John Elway or a Peyton Manning and I always say that if you give me even a 25% chance of landing a superstar, Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback like that I'll jump at it.

Scouting

    When scouting quarterbacks it's easy to fall in love with the cannon arms and prototypical size but while those things are important to a degree they aren't everything. The #1 thing I look for in a quarterback are intangibles. Are they a leader? Are they smart? Do they truly love the game? Are they a hard worker? Those are the first questions I ask. If all it took to be a great quarterback was a strong arm then Jeff George would be in the Hall of Fame. After that you move on to physical tools and while a guy doesn't necessarily need to be 6-5 / 230 and throw the ball 100 miles per hour there are, in general, certain minimum requirements. Then of course there are countless hours of film review in which you evaluate accuracy, decision making, vision, etc. The final factor for me is my gut. Sometimes there are players that I just get a feeling about and in all honesty I think that has been one of the keys to my success in evaluating signal callers over the years. Now I, just like everyone else, have had my fair share of misses as well (i.e. Harrington, Joey) but the four best quarterbacks I have ever graded are, in order: Peyton Manning, Brady Quinn, Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. Three of those four are already wearing Super Bowl rings, which bodes well Cleveland Browns fans. Get out there and make me look good Brady!

Environment

    This is a big one. If I am going to invest $50+ million in a young quarterback I am going to put him in a position to succeed. The first thing I want is continuity in the coaching staff. If I were an owner whose team just drafted or was going to draft a quarterback in the Top 10 and there was even the slightest chance I might fire my coach in the next year or two I would give him his pink slip immediately. It's better to start fresh with a new staff who is going to be around in this potential franchise players formative years than put his development at risk by creating a tenuous situation around him. This guy is hopefully going to be the face of my team for the next decade. Giving him the stability he needs to develop properly / maximize his potential is my top priority.

When to Play

    This is tricky and there really is no clear-cut right or wrong answer. For me though the determining factor above all else would be the offensive line. If I am not confident that my offensive line can protect him then he isn't playing. Period. In my opinion nothing can ruin a young quarterback quicker than a bad offensive line because it leads to bad habits and undermines his psyche. The other main factor is whether or not a guy is ready. Well, actually no young quarterback is totally ready and even Peyton Manning threw more interceptions than touchdowns as a rookie but some are more ready than others. For example, everyone said that Matt Ryan was qualified to step in and start right away and he was but in the case of Vince Young I think the Tennessee Titans rushed him and long-term it has hurt his career. Why was Ryan ready but Young was not? Well, Ryan had proven he could make his reads and run a pro-style offense in college but Young played in a spread attack at Texas so the learning curve was going to be much steeper for him. There could be another classic example in the 2009 NFL Draft, with one guy in Matthew Stafford who is prepared to start early on in his pro career and another in Tim Tebow who may be at least a couple of years away. This is another area where having a stable coaching staff comes into play. A coach on the hot seat might feel pressure from fans and front office execs to play the young quarterback before he is ready but it's important to keep the big picture in perspective. At the end of the day if a guy is ready and the o-line can protect him then by all means throw him in the fire and let him learn on the job. Every situation is different though.

    So there you have it. It might not be foolproof but that is how I would go about finding and developing a franchise quarterback. Even in the best of circumstances there will never be a sure-thing but I have a feeling that if more teams followed this blueprint the bust rate for first round quarterbacks would not be nearly as daunting as it is now. In fact, I am available and ready to enact this plan for an NFL team today so please feel free to give me a call... Mr. Ford.

• Yesterday was the NFL's trade deadline. More often than not it passes without so much as a whimper, unlike its exciting counterpart in the other three major sports, but there was actually a couple of pretty significant deals made this year.

    The headliner was the Detroit Lions sending WR Roy Williams and a 7th round pick in 2010 to the Dallas Cowboys in exchange for a 1st, 3rd and 6th rounder in 2009. You can make the case that Dallas slightly overpaid for Williams, especially considering he was due to become a free agent and they had to fork over a five-year contract extension worth $45 million as well, but this just might be the type of deal that works out for everyone involved. With Calvin Johnson emerging as their #1 target it was obvious that Williams was not in Detroit's long-term plans, which set up a potentially sticky situation next offseason in which they likely would have had to franchise him. This trade gets that out of the way early and gives the new Lions regime a couple more premium draft picks to address some of their glaring weaknesses. Perhaps now Detroit can take quarterback Matthew Stafford with their first pick and come back with a defensive end (Brian Orakpo / George Selvie) or a left tackle (Jason Smith) later in round one. For Dallas this gives them even more offensive firepower and addresses arguably their greatest need. I actually had the Cowboys taking a wide receiver in my mock draft but instead of bringing in a rookie who might take years to develop they get a proven pass catcher who is capable of being a #1 target. As for Williams he goes from a winless team to a playoff contender, gets to go home to Texas where he grew up and played his college ball and also lands the new contract with $20 million guaranteed he was searching for. If you ask me everyone comes out smelling like roses on this one.

    Even though it isn't getting as much ink as the Williams deal I also think the Colts acquisition of DT John McCargo from the Bills for a mid-to-late round pick is noteworthy as well. I have never been as high on McCargo as most and when Buffalo traded up to take him with the 26th pick in the 2006 NFL Draft I said it was a major reach. In fact, that year I had McCargo rated as a mid-third rounder. McCargo never lived up to expectations in Buffalo and he was actually outplayed by Kyle Williams, their 5th round pick that same year, but he is getting a new lease on life with Indy. McCargo is a penetrating one-gapper who was notorious for making plays in opponents backfields while in college, which makes him a perfect for Indy's defensive scheme. Perhaps he can be a very poor-man's Warren Sapp. As an added bonus he is also signed through 2010 at very reasonable salaries. Following the unexpected retirement of Quinn Pitcock and release of Ed Johnson the Colts had a major need in the middle of their line. I applaud them for taking advantage of this low risk / high reward opportunity.

    In Major League Baseball, the NBA and the NFL the trade deadline has become a quasi event unto itself but for one reason or another the NFL has failed to follow suit. However, there was actually a fair amount of intrigue, speculation and action this time around. Let's hope it is a sign of things to come.

• We are now down to just two winless teams in the NFL and since I already talked about one of them, the Cincinnati Bengals, in this space a couple of weeks ago it's time to take a look at the potential draft plans of the Detroit Lions.

    Like most bad teams the Lions have no shortage of needs but based on their depth chart and the talent that figures to be available I see three main possibilities, assuming they end up with a Top 5 pick:

Quarterback - We know Jon Kitna isn't the long-term answer under center but Detroit needs to make a determination as to whether either Dan Orlovsky or Drew Stanton are starting material. If the answer is no then Georgia's Matthew Stafford comes into play. In my opinion unless Orlovsky or Stanton really show something down the stretch Stafford should be at the top of the Lions draft board. Assuming he is still available when they pick that is...

Defensive End - The Lions pass defense has just been atrocious and their lack of a pass rush is the main culprit. Dewayne White is a solid starter who is good for 5-6 sacks per year but beyond him the cupboard is essentially bare. Georgia Tech's Michael Johnson could be a possibility, although I think Top 5 would be too early for him, and if he comes out Greg Hardy of Ole Miss could jump to the top of the defensive end rankings.

Middle Linebacker - Even though they used an early round pick in the 2008 NFL Draft on Jordon Dizon this position continues to be a problem for the Lions. Dizon might still turn out to be a good player but I'm not sure he's the type you pass on a guy like James Laurinaitis for. Twenty years ago Detroit chose another Buckeye 'backer by the name of Chris Spielman and he was a stalwart of their defense for many years. It might be time to go back to the well.

    It is still early and a lot can (and will) change between now and Draft Day '09 but those are their options as I see them right now. What direction the Lions go with their top pick will obviously hinge on a number of factors, not the least of which is who takes over their front office now that Matt Millen is gone and whether or not Rod Marinelli is retained as head coach. I am confident in saying they won't take a wide receiver in round one though. It's the dawning of yet another new era in Detroit but no decision they make next offseason will have a more profound effect on their future than who they opt for in round one.

• While some were jumping on the Tim Tebow bandwagon and proclaiming him a future Top 3 overall pick I have always maintained that I needed to see a lot more of him before I passed any judgment, positive or negative. Well, after watching the Florida / L.S.U. game this past weekend I think I have another piece of the puzzle. Unfortunately that piece does not necessarily fit in the NFL.

    First of all let me re-emphasize how extremely difficult it is to evaluate Tebow in Urban Meyer's spread offense. In fact, against L.S.U. I'm not sure he was asked to make more than two or three "NFL" throws. Physically Tebow has the size and arm strength to excel at the next level and his athleticism, toughness and intangibles are all top-notch. With that said you just can't underestimate how much of an adjustment it will be for Tebow to make the move to a pro-style offense and that is why I think it would be a monumental mistake to take him in the top half of the first round. The first thing that has to happen is Tebow needs to learn to work from under center because in college he takes the majority of his snaps in the shotgun. Now this might seem like a small thing but believe me it is not. In fact, sources have told me that Tebow has devoted some practice time to the dropback but the results have been mixed at best. I could go on and on about things Tebow will need to work on and I will eventually detail all of them in my scouting report but in addition to all those technical aspects Tebow will essentially need to re-learn the game. Think about it, Tebow has played in the spread offense for seven years, dating back to his high school days. In a pro-style offense almost everything will be different from what he is used to, from the defenses he sees to the throws he is asked to make to the timing, etc. It's no different than if you were a computer repairman who had worked on PC's for almost a decade and decided to take a job working on Mac's. Sure certain aspects of the job will be the same but it will also require a lot of re-training and you certainly won't be qualified to fix an AirBook overnight. Tebow has enjoyed a lot of success in Gainesville and I'm sure he wouldn't change a thing but the Gators haven't done him any favors when it comes to preparing him for the next level. When it comes right down to it, strictly from a prospect perspective Tebow probably would've been much better off at Alabama.

    After reading all that you probably think I would advise Tebow to stay in school for his senior year and wait for the 2010 NFL Draft but, as Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast my friend,". Tebow has already won a National Championship, won a Heisman Trophy and basically accomplished everything he can at the college level so it may be time to move on. Some might say he needs more development and I would agree with that whole-heartedly, but he needs NFL development. Another year in the Gators system would just further ingrain the style and principles that he and NFL coaches are going to have to work so hard to change. It will just retard his development for another year. If he asked me I would of course advise Tebow to investigate the decision thoroughly by consulting with his coaches, family and others but in all honesty I just don't see how another year at Florida will make him a better pro prospect.

    I have said on more than one occasion that Tebow reminds me an awful lot of Steve Young and I think he may need to follow the same type of career path. Following a brief two-year stint in the USFL Young started a grand total of 29 games in his first six NFL seasons and 19 of those came while he was with Tampa Bay. Sure in another situation Young probably would have been starting but long-term getting stuck behind Joe Montana was the best thing that ever happened to his career. Young was able to learn from one of the best and master the West Coast offense so when it was his time he could make a seamless transition. More importantly Young took over a pretty good team. Most remember Young as this historically efficient quarterback but keep in mind that when he was with the Bucs he was a 53% passer. Over the next 13 seasons in San Francisco he completed 66% of his attempts. Whether it was a product of his development or the improved supporting cast there is no question that Young thrived in the 49'er system and that method should serve as a blueprint for any team that brings Tebow into the fold. If Tebow comes into the NFL as a Top 10 draft pick and is forced into the starting lineup as a rookie I think he'll most likely fail to live up to expectations. However, if he is handled properly Tebow might have a chance to be a transcendent talent like Steve Young was. Perhaps the most important factor of all is Tebow needs to be selected by a team with an established, secure coaching staff. Alex Smith, who was also an Urban Meyer protégé, had four different offensive coordinators in four years and that is just a recipe for disaster. Of course for Tebow to land with a stable team that would be capable of developing him properly he would have to slide a bit on Draft Day but, as they say, it's not where you start it's where you finish. Short-term it might cost Tebow some money but long-term it would give him the best opportunity to succeed at the pro level. So who might be candidates to take this approach with Tebow? First and foremost how about the New York Jets? Kellen Clemens has already shown he isn't the guy and since Favre is the undisputed starter Tebow would have at least a year or two to learn from the master. That recipe sure seems to have worked out pretty well for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers! The Seattle Seahawks would probably be the next best option followed by teams like Carolina, Tampa Bay and maybe even Indianapolis or Tennessee but the list isn't very long. Even if all those stars align Tebow could still fizzle out because, as Vince Young has shown, even the best conditions don't guarantee success. However, if Tebow is to even have a chance to realize his full potential in the NFL he will have to be handled with kid gloves.

    There is no question that Tim Tebow is a phenomenal college football player but because he is such a unique talent his development will require a unique approach. If handled correctly and in the right situation Tim Tebow is a potential star but there is very little margin for error and in my opinion he is the ultimate boom or bust prospect. There are no sure-things when it comes to the NFL Draft, especially at the quarterback position, but you can minimize risk and considering all of the question marks surrounding Tebow I would have a hard time investing a Top 10 pick and $50 million in him. Now that's not to say I wouldn't take him in the first round but it would probably be more in that 20-32 range and the conditions would have to be just right. The only thing I am certain of at this point is that Tim Tebow is a project and that he will continue to be one of the most controversial and hotly debated prospects we have ever seen.

October 11, 2008 | 12:00 PM ET on ABC

• Each weekend always offers a handful of intriguing matchups but every once in while a real special college football game comes along. Even though this year's first such matchup (Southern Cal versus Ohio St.) wound up being quite a bummer there is another one of those "Can't Miss" games just on the horizon.

    I am talking, of course, about the Red River Rivalry.

    #1 Oklahoma vs. #5 Texas

    There are a lot of great storylines in this game, ranging from the intense rivalry between the two schools, the Big 12 and National Championship implications, the Heisman showdown between Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy... However, since this is an NFL Draft site I want to focus on the prospect angle.

    This is actually a down year for the Longhorns, at least by their standards, but they still have a number of prospects to check out. First and foremost this will be a great opportunity to see defensive end Brian Orakpo, a potential first round pick who is having a fantastic senior season, go up against NFL caliber blockers like Phil Loadholt and Duke Robinson. Also keep an eye on offensive guard Cedric Dockery, corner Ryan Palmer, defensive tackle Roy Miller and wideout Quan Cosby, all of whom are legitimate mid to late round possibilities.

    While Texas might not have as many pro prospects as we have become accustomed to in recent years Oklahoma is absolutely loaded with talent which more than makes up the difference. It's hard to know exactly where to start but the offensive linemen I mentioned earlier are as good a place as any. Just as this is a great chance to see how Orakpo does against them this is also a terrific opportunity to see how Loadholt and Robinson handle a talented Longhorn defensive line. Also from the senior class there is wide receiver Juaqin Iglesias, safety Nic Harris, center Jon Cooper and defensive end John Williams. As far as the underclassmen go keep an eye on Jermaine Gresham, who could be the first tight end selected if he decides to come out early, defensive tackles Gerald McCoy and DeMarcus Granger, running back DeMarco Murray, and defensive end Auston English. I still think redshirt sophomore Sam Bradford will stay in school for at least one more year but he has emerged as one of the top quarterback prospects in all of college football, second only to Matthew Stafford.

    Whether you are a die-hard draftnik or just an average college football fan this is a must-see game. It is entirely possible that this game will produce as many as a half dozen first round picks in the 2009 NFL Draft and when it comes to bang-for-your-buck that's about as good as it gets. DON'T MISS IT!

• With such a weak crop of senior quarterbacks it was inevitable that some were going to get overrated, by fans and scouts alike, but in my opinion the most glaring example of this is Purdue's Curtis Painter.

    There is certainly plenty to like about Painter, most notably his production and experience, but from what I have seen of him his arm strength isn't anything special and he really struggles to throw the ball accurately. Just how bad is Painter struggling right now? Well, Boilermakers head coach Joe Tiller recently called him out in the media and actually benched him towards the end of their loss to Penn St. Coming into the 2008 season I viewed Painter as a second round pick but not anymore. In fact, at this point I think Kyle Orton was probably a better pro prospect coming out of college and he was a fourth round pick in 2005.

    I do still have Painter rated as my #4 senior signal caller but that is more a byproduct of the lack of quality at the position. In my Top 100 rankings Painter checks in at #80, but bear in mind that is only the seniors so once you factor in underclassmen Painter actually grades out as more of a fourth rounder in my book. There is still a lot of time left for Painter to turn things around, including All-Star games such as the Senior Bowl, but while some are still buying into all of the preseason hype there's no question that Painter's draft stock is trending sharply downward.

• There is a chance that the senior defensive tackle class won't produce a single first round pick next April but that doesn't mean there won't be some very good football players available. One guy who I like a lot is Missouri's Evander Hood.

    Had he entered the 2008 NFL Draft after his junior season the NFL's Underclassmen Advisory Panel felt "Ziggy" would have been a third round pick and that may be a worst-case scenario for him in 2009. In terms of measurables Hood is more than adequate across the board at 6-3 and 295 lbs. with 5.00 speed but it's his quickness, intangibles and motor that really set him apart. Simply put, this guy never lets up and it's that hustle, toughness and intensity that allow him to make so many plays in pursuit. Just to give you an idea about his work ethic in the weight room, "Ziggy" has added 40-45 pounds to his frame since he first set foot on the Mizzou campus in '05.

    Hood most likely projects as a three-technique at the next level and while not many are talking about him as a first round possibility I think he could be right on the fringe when all is said and done. In fact, if I were Bill Polian and the Indianapolis Colts I'd be looking very closely at Hood. He may not be flashy or get a lot of pub on the national level but "Ziggy" is one of the best senior defensive tackles in the country and in my opinion he should compete with guys like Peria Jerry and Terrance Taylor for the top spot in the months leading up to the 2009 Draft.

• While tweaking my positional rankings recently I had to ask a question:

    Why shouldn't Brian Orakpo be ahead of Michael Johnson?

    Everyone knows that production isn't everything when it comes to evaluating pro prospects but at the same time you'd certainly like to see first round picks dominate their college competition. Coming into their senior seasons Johnson's and Orakpo's career totals for sacks were about the same, with Orakpo getting the edge in tackles for a loss, but so far in 2008 Orakpo has 8.0 TFL and 6.0 sacks compared to 3.5 and 1.5 for Johnson. There is no denying that Johnson is a rare athlete with great size and speed but Orakpo is a workout warrior in his own right. Also, while Johnson will be limited to a 4-3 scheme at the next level and might only be used as a pass rush specialist Orakpo has the potential to be a 34 outside linebacker as well so he will get the nod in the versatility department.

    Ultimately I gave Johnson the ever so slight edge in my rankings based on his upside but Orakpo is right behind him and they are #8 and #9 on my overall list. Still, with things seemingly so close why is Johnson considered to be a potential Top 10 pick while Orakpo is viewed as more of a fringe first rounder?

    Basically what I am trying to say is that Johnson isn't the clear-cut top senior defensive end like some might think and even though I have him #1 and Orakpo #2 you can easily make a strong case that the order should be reversed.

• Ole Miss already has one sure-fire first rounder in Michael Oher and another potential first round pick in Peria Jerry but if Greg Hardy chooses to come out after his junior season he could wind up being the first Rebel selected next April.

    Anyone who follows the NFL Draft, or football in general for that matter, knows how valued pass rushers are and Hardy might be the best the college game has to offer. A fantastic athlete who actually played basketball for the Rebels early in his college career, Hardy has all the measurables you look for including size (6-4, 265), speed (4.75), a massive wingspan, outstanding quickness and a burst to close. In addition to those physical tools Hardy also possesses a great motor and is an all-around player, not just an edge pass rusher who relies solely on his speed. Hardy isn't just a workout warrior though because he also has the on-field production to compliment his impressive physical gifts. In fact, Hardy has averaged one sack for every game he played in college! Durability has been an issue for Hardy and he missed the start of the 2008 season following foot surgery but he made his presence known once he returned, notching 2.5 tackles for a loss and 1.5 sacks in the Rebels surprising win over Florida in The Swamp.

    As far as the draft goes, if Hardy comes out early he could be in the mix to be the first defensive end selected. His main competition for that spot (Michael Johnson, Brian Orakpo, George Selvie) all have some serious question marks and Hardy probably has the best mix of measurables and production. Think of him as a poor-man's Julius Peppers. If I were to include Hardy with the seniors in my rankings he would most likely be my #1 rated defensive end and while it's still early he might be a better pro prospect than Derrick Harvey, who went #8 overall last year. I'm not quite ready to say that Hardy is a future Top 10 pick just yet but he'll definitely be in Round 1 the next time I update my mock draft.

    I've talked about how impressive the crop of pass rushers in the junior class is on more than one occassion but even though Hardy doesn't get nearly as much pub as some of them don't be surprised if he ends up being the best pro prospect.

Alabama OT Andre Smith

• I have to admit that prior to the start of the 2008 season I was not completely sold on Alabama offensive tackle Andre Smith. At least not to the extent that some were. However, after evaluating Smith on two separate occasions this year I can see why he was the #2 ranked player in the entire country coming out of high school and I too am now convinced that he is indeed a top prospect.

    He might even be Top 10 overall material.

    The biggest reservation I had about Smith was his weight (340 lbs.), specifically whether it would allow him to remain at left tackle at the next level. There is no question that Smith is still battling the bulge to a certain degree and that is something he will need to continue to work on but based on what I've seen from him it won't necessitate a move to right tackle or guard in the pros. Although bear in mind he could still play those positions and excel at them. Despite his substantial girth Smith is very athletic and agile with terrific feet but he also displays the power to lock on and dominate defenders in the run game. In other words he's an all-around player. Sure he might not be quite as tall as you'd prefer and his weight might always be an issue but the on-field results don't lie and Smith has been extremely impressive both times I have seen him this season. Smith actually reminds me of Jason Peters and that's not a bad guy to be compared to considering he is one of the premier left tackles in the game.

    The senior class already features two offensive tackles who are potential Top 10 overall picks but last year's draft showed there is always room for stud blockers in round one. Andre Smith has the talent to rank right up there with Eugene Monroe and Michael Oher and if he does decide to enter the draft after his junior season it's not a given that he will be the third offensive tackle chosen.

    He could even compete for the top spot.

    Because of the lingering weight and potential position issues I still have a hard time classifying Smith as a sure-fire franchise left tackle prospect but I've now seen enough to feel comfortable in labeling him as a Top 10-15 overall pick.

• It's not uncommon to see two pro prospects from the same school who play the same position but the Cincinnati Bearcats have a trifecta on their hands.

    Most draftniks and college football fans know all about Mike Mickens but he might not even be the best cornerback prospect on his own team. Or even the second best! DeAngelo Smith has been overshadowed by Mickens for most of his college career but he is a very good player in his own right and there is even a chance he could be drafted ahead of his more highly-touted teammate. At 6-0 and 190 lbs. Smith has good size and even though his timed speed is just average (4.55) he is very physical and has proven to be a playmaker in the secondary. Smith has actually been playing safety as a senior and that versatility will only make him more attractive on Draft Day. The arrival of Brandon Underwood is the reason DeAngelo Smith was kicked inside to safety this year, which speaks volumes about the talent level of that young man. A transfer from Ohio St., Underwood didn't make much of an impact during his days as a Buckeye but even though he only has one season to play and make his mark at Cincinnati he is doing an outstanding job of making up for lost time. Underwood has all the physical tools you look for at 6-1 and 190 lbs. with 4.4 speed and it appears he is finally putting it all together in 2008. You have to be concerned about the one-year wonder factor with Underwood but his stock is soaring right now and he has already gone from a guy who was barely even on scout's radars prior to the start of the season to a potential mid-round pick. As for Mickens, he isn't quite the pro prospect that his college press clippings might lead you to believe but he is still one of the better cover guys in the country and could come off the board as early as the second or third round and probably no later than the fifth.

    It's looking more and more like all three of these Bearcat defensive backs are going to be drafted next April. In fact, they could all potentially come off the board before the 5th round. Now that would really be quite an accomplishment.

• "You win with character, not with characters."

    It seems like just yesterday that the Cincinnati Bengals were one of the NFL's most exciting, up-and-coming young teams but now there is a very distinct possibility that they are the league's worst team. How did it come to this? The easy answer is they just took too many risks on guys with questionable character. Odell Thurman. Chris Henry. Frostee Rucker. A.J. Nicholson. Heck, as of the 2008 NFL Draft they still hadn't learned their lesson because they chose Jason Shirley in the fifth round even though his rap sheet indicated he was a Pacman Jones in training. Now a team doesn't fall this far this fast for any one reason but I definitely believe that the Bengals affinity for drafting "turds" has been the single overriding factor in their demise.

    The question now becomes how do you fix this mess?

    The first thing the Bengals need to do is clean house. Marvin Lewis and the coaching staff? Gone. Whoever was responsible for drafting all those prospects with character issues? Gone. Any players who create distractions or get in trouble off-the-field. Gone. A couple of months ago I would have said that Cincy might have to take a step backward to institute these changes but at an ugly 0-4 they can't sink much lower so there is really no reason not to purge the franchise of these problems. Once that is out of the way Cincinnati needs to turn their attention to the draft because at the rate things are going they are going to own a Top 10 pick. Heck, it might even be Top 3-5! What direction might the Bengals be looking to go with their top pick next April? Honestly, the only position I would rule out is quarterback. Other than that I think they could realistically justify addressing any other position on either side of the ball. It might truly be a case of taking the "Best Player Available". With that said I think there are two distinct possibilities that stand out above the rest: Beanie Wells and James Laurinaitis. Sure both are local Buckeye products and that certainly wouldn't hurt their cases because if any team needs some positive P.R. it's the Bengals. However, both Wells and Laurinaitis just happen to be excellent fits in the talent and need departments as well. Rudi Johnson was released before the start of the season and Chris Perry while never been able to stay healthy and isn't exactly setting the world on fire now that he's the starter. It's tough to swallow taking a running back that high in the draft these days, especially one with durability concerns, but Wells is the type of talent who could prove to be worth that risk. On defense, even though they took Keith Rivers in the first round last year, linebacker is still a problem area for Cincinnati and Laurinaitis would represent a major upgrade over Dhani Jones. In addition to his physical contributions Laurinaitis would also provide the type of leadership and intangibles that this Bengals defense has been lacking for many years now.

    Things are probably going to get worse before they start getting better in Cincy but on the bright side change is coming. It's only a matter of time until this dysfunctional regime is shown the door, then the healing can finally begin.