• One of the most stunning developments of the 2009 NFL season has been the sudden and dramatic decline of the Tennessee Titans. After winning 13 games a year ago, which was best in the league, Tennessee entered this season with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. However, instead of contending for a championship the Titans have been one of the league’s worst teams and through seven weeks they have yet to win a single game. The low point came a couple of weeks ago when they were absolutely embarrassed by the New England Patriots, getting blown out 59-0. There will be plenty of time to dissect and analyze the reasons behind the Titans stunning downfall but since this is an NFL Draft blog let’s look at the situation from that perspective.

    Right now the Titans, along with St. Louis and Tampa Bay, are winless and one of the front-runners to land the #1 overall pick. I believe that Tennessee will eventually get on the board but even if they win three or four games that could still secure them a spot in the Top 3-5 overall. So if the Titans do unexpectedly end up with a premium draft pick what direction will they go? At this point there appears to be three distinct possibilities:

1) Quarterback

    It was recently announced that Vince Young would get another crack at the starting job and how he plays down the stretch will determine whether or not the Titans will be in the market for a franchise signal caller. 37-year-old Kerry Collins is clearly not the answer but if Young can somehow revert to the promising form he showed his first couple of years in the league the Titans may be inclined to give the former #3 overall pick another shot in 2010. However, if Young continues to struggle it will likely be the end of the line for him in Tennessee, especially since the coaching staff has shown little or no faith in him and he is due to receive a $4 million roster bonus in March. If they do opt to go with a quarterback in the Top 5 then Washington’s Jake Locker and Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford will be the two most likely targets next April.

2) Defensive Tackle

    In less than a year the Titans have gone from one of the league’s best teams to one of the worst and the only major difference was the loss of Albert Haynesworth. Not only was Haynesworth a force against the run but he also made things easier for their linebackers and secondary so his loss has had a ripple effect on Tennessee’s entire defense. After finishing 7th in the league in total defense in 2008 the Titans currently rank 31st. Yikes. The addition of a stud defensive tackle might be the best way for the Titans to turn things around and get back into contention next season so they will have to strongly consider Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh and Oklahoma’s Gerald McCoy. Both of those guys are impact players and true difference-makers, although if the Titans were reluctant to pay an All-Pro like Haynesworth you have to wonder if they will be willing to shell out $30+ million in guaranteed money to an unproven rookie.

3) Cornerback

    Cortland Finnegan emerged as a Pro Bowl cover guy for the Titans in 2008 but beyond him the cupboard is pretty bare. Nick Harper is 35-years-old, Ryan Mouton is a better return man than cornerback and late round picks like Devin McCourty and Cary Williams are only seeing significant action because they don’t have any better options. There isn’t going to be a Deion Sanders or Champ Bailey type of prospect in this draft but the Titans could opt for local Tennessee product Eric Berry. Even though Berry plays safety for the Vols he excels in coverage and many feel he has the athleticism and speed to play corner at the next level. It might not be a perfect fit but the Titans need to address their horrendous pass defense and Berry will be the best defensive back available.

    The season is only half over and there is always the potential for Tennessee to go on a run and play their way out of the cellar. However, if the Titans do end up with a Top 5 overall pick they are going to have a huge decision to make. Do they opt for the quick fix and go with a defensive tackle or defensive back or do they take advantage of the rare opportunity to add a top young quarterback to build around for the long-term? It’s an interesting dilemma and one that the Titans organization probably never imagined they’d have to deal with this year.

• Talk about a Love / Hate relationship!

    Depending on the type of defensive scheme a team runs Alabama’s Terrence Cody will either be one of the most coveted prospects in the 2010 NFL Draft or a complete afterthought. Nothing in between. That is why he could end going as high as the Top 15 overall or slip all the way to round two.

    Coming out of high school in Fort Myers, Florida Cody reportedly had an opportunity to attend Miami but he didn’t qualify academically, which led to a stint at Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College. Following that two-year detour Cody was rated as the #47 JUCO prospect in the country by Rivals and he chose to sign with Alabama, where he was a perfect fit for the defense that Nick Saban was installing. Cody only had two seasons of Division I eligibility remaining when he arrived in Tuscaloosa but he certainly didn’t waste any time asserting himself. In fact, not only did Cody start every game for the Crimson Tide as they made a BCS run in 2008 but he also earned 1st Team All-SEC honors and was a consensus 1st Team All-American. Not a bad debut! After seriously considering entering the 2009 NFL Draft, where he was considered to be a borderline first rounder, Cody opted to return for his senior year and headline one of the nations most dominating defenses.

    At 6-5 and 365 pounds you just don’t see many players built like “Mount Cody”, which is both a good thing and a bad thing. Cody has always struggled with his conditioning and stamina and he has reportedly weighed as much as 400 pounds at times. Then again, as former New York Giants General Manager George Young’s “Planet Theory” states, there are only so many people on the planet with that type of size and athleticism. In other words Cody’s rare mass is essentially a double-edged sword. On one hand Cody is an extremely unique individual with the potential to be one of the best players in the NFL at his position but on the other hand there is a good chance he will eat his way out of the league. When it comes to his game Cody is basically a one-dimensional player. Teams that want their defensive tackles to get after the quarterback should look elsewhere because Cody has only registered half a sack in 20 career games at Alabama and they will likely need a sundial to time his forty yard dash at the Scouting Combine. Because of those limitations Cody will be viewed as an overweight, situational player by teams that run a 4-3 scheme. However, when it comes to occupying multiples blockers, pushing the pocket and stuffing the run Cody has few peers and that makes him an ideal fit at nose tackle in a 3-4 scheme. Luckily for Cody the “30” front is very much en vogue these days, with at least half of the leagues teams now running it in one form or another. Even though they don’t get as much publicity as the pass rushing outside linebackers a stud nose tackle is actually the key to any successful 3-4 defense and guys like Casey Hampton, Jamal Williams and Vince Wilfork don’t just grow on trees. It’s a thankless but extremely important job and Cody is basically the prototype. As an added bonus Cody can also make his presence felt on special teams, as evidenced by his two blocked kicks against Tennessee last weekend including what would have been the game-winner. The bottom line is that while Cody is far from a well-rounded player he happens to do what he does extremely well.

    It is going to be very interesting to see where Cody is ultimately selected in the 2010 NFL Draft and in many ways he is a Boom or Bust type of prospect. There is no question that Cody has some things working against him, most notably his weight and lack of versatility, so it would not be a total shock if he slid a bit on Draft Day. However, when you consider how difficult it is to find true nose tackles and the fact that so many teams now run a 3-4 scheme there is also a strong possibility that someone could pop him earlier than expected.

    When it comes to Terrence Cody beauty will be in the eye of the beholder.

• Will the NFL Draft go down the same dark road as Major League Baseball’s?

    In 2010 it might.

    Those who haven’t followed what Major League Baseball calls their “First-Year Player Draft” lately probably aren’t familiar with the term “signability”. However, that concept has become more and more of a factor in recent years and in many ways it has corrupted the entire event. In short “signability” essentially refers to how difficult it will be to sign a player. Unlike the NBA and NFL, where there are at least some salary restrictions in place for drafted prospects, there are no constraints in Major League Baseball. That means a player can ask for as much money as they want and in many cases teams will pass on a more talented prospect in favor of someone who they feel they can sign. At times this has led to elite prospects falling all the way to the end of round one or beyond to large market teams such as the Yankees and Red Sox, who are willing to pay their asking price. Needless to say this has perverted the draft process and instead of the league’s worst teams getting the best players to rebuild around the rich just keep getting richer.

    So what does that have to do with the NFL? Everyone knows that unless the owners and players can reach an accord on a new collective bargaining agreement there will be no salary cap for the 2010 season. Teams will be able to spend as much or as little as they want. As it turns out the NFL Draft could be affected as well though. The league actually has the option of dropping the current rookie salary pool, which in essence caps the amount of money teams can spend on their draft picks, and if that is the direction they decide to go all hell will break loose. Let me lay out an example of something that could happen if there is no salary cap or rookie pool in place: Let’s say the Washington Redskins have the #5 pick and they decide that "Player A" is the guy they want. Unfortunately for them the St. Louis Rams have the #1 pick and they also want "Player A". The Redskins could go to "Player A" and say “We’re prepared to pay you $100 million”. What if the Rams can’t match that offer or just aren’t willing to? Or what if "Player A" simply prefers to play in Washington? Sure St. Louis could call their bluff and take the player anyway but that would be a huge risk and most teams probably won’t want to deal with the headache or run the chance of wasting their top pick. The draft would essentially become an auction, with prospects going to the highest bidder. The possibilities are endless and you better believe the Daniel Snyders’ and Jerry Jones’ of the world would jump at the opportunity to throw their money around and exploit this loophole.

        Eric Berry to Dallas in the 20's?

        Russell Okung to the Redskins in Round 2?

    Don't laugh, it could happen.

    The league has until 60 days before the draft to notify the players union of their intentions, which is almost a month after the deadline for underclassmen to declare. That means prospects with eligibility remaining may be forced to make their decisions about whether or not to go pro without knowing what the owners plan to do. Even if the NFL opts to keep the status quo there will probably be a record number of underclassmen coming out this year. Not only do players want to beat the rookie wage scale that will likely be in place by 2011 but the injury factor has never loomed so large after what has happened to guys like Sam Bradford and Jermaine Gresham. However, the mere possibility of really striking it rich and basically being able to name your price could prove awfully enticing and agents will certainly be hammering that scenario home in their recruiting conversations this fall. In other words get ready to see a flood of youngsters unlike anything the NFL Draft has ever seen in January.

    Nobody really knows how this whole situation is going to play out but it certainly adds yet another layer of intrigue to this year's draft. With that said, if the owners do indeed drop the rookie salary pool the 2010 NFL Draft will become just as much about money as it is about talent and that would be sad.

• "Jimmy Clausen is the real deal."

            - Scott Wright, The Wright Stuff Draft Blog (9/11/07)

    I wrote that in this very blog more than two years ago, even though Clausen had only played in a grand total of two college games at the time. Despite that relatively limited track record I felt comfortable going out on a limb and since then Clausen has done nothing to change my opinion. In fact, he has developed into an even better player than I imagined.

    A highly-touted recruit who was being hailed as the "LeBron James of College Football" before he ever stepped foot on campus, Clausen was in an impossible position and the odds of him ever living up to the excessive hype seemed long. However, Clausen has somehow managed to fulfill most of those unrealistic expectations and he just might be the best signal caller in the nation. Like all young quarterbacks Clausen had his fair share of ups and downs but he still completed 59% of his passes with 32 touchdowns and just 23 interceptions as a freshman and sophomore. Now a junior, Clausen has really taken his game to the next level and so far in 2009 he is throwing for more than 300 yards per game, completing 65% of his passes and sports a sterling 7-1 TD-to-INT ratio. Even more impressive than all of those gaudy statistics is the maturity Clausen has demonstrated. Early in his career Clausen would often exhibit bad body language on the field and pout on the sidelines when things weren’t going his way but he has since emerged as a respected team leader and was even voted a captain by his teammates. Clausen also appears to have ice water in his veins and anyone who’s seen him lead the Irish offense on long drives late in close games against Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Washington and USC this year had to have come away impressed. The bottom line is that as long as he is given time to throw Clausen can carve up a defense with the best of them.

    As a pro prospect Clausen doesn’t really qualify as “Elite” in either the physical tools or intangibles departments but he possesses a very good mix of the two. Over the course of the past few years Clausen has bulked up his once thin frame and he now checks in at a solid 6-3 and 223 pounds, which is more than adequate. Nobody will mistake Clausen for JaMarcus Russell or Matthew Stafford when it comes to sheer arm strength but he is capable of making all of the necessary throws with some zip and can fit the ball into tight spaces when needed. Some have questioned Clausen’s mechanics but he is an extremely accurate passer with good touch and timing and I don’t see his throwing motion as an issue. If it was one of his numerous position specific coaches / quarterback gurus would have corrected it by now. Clausen also does a good job when it comes to ball security and he isn’t afraid to just throw it away, which is something that most signal callers his age struggle with. It’s important to note that Clausen has three full years of starting experience in a pro style offense so he knows how to work from under center, read defenses and go through his progressions. There won’t be nearly as much guesswork when evaluating Clausen as there is with some other quarterback prospects who play in spread systems because scouts have tons of film of him operating in an NFL environment. Don’t underestimate the Charlie Weis factor either because regardless of how people feel about him as a head coach there is no denying his ability to mentor quarterbacks. Weis played a key role in turning late round pick Tom Brady into a future Hall of Famer and he has already produced one first round signal caller while at Notre Dame (Brady Quinn). It looks as though Weis has once again worked his magic with Clausen. I am often asked to compare current prospects to other players and in my opinion Clausen is a more talented and advanced version of Aaron Rodgers when he was coming out.

    If Jimmy Clausen opts to enter the 2010 NFL Draft he will definitely be a first round pick and would most likely compete with Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford and Washington’s Jake Locker to be the first quarterback selected. There is no question that another year in college would be beneficial to Clausen’s long-term development but there will be a lot of dynamics that come into play. By all accounts the Clausen family isn’t hurting for money so it’s not like Jimmy will be forced out the door by financial considerations. However, they may want to beat the inevitable rookie salary scale and take advantage of what could be an uncapped year. Would he pass on what could be $30 million, or more, guaranteed? Then there is always the risk of injury (just ask Sam Bradford) and Clausen has already dealt with some minor foot ailments, although he has done an admirable job of toughing them out. Another season with the Irish would also open Clausen up to the type of overanaylsis and criticism that has plagued other top seniors who have passed up big paydays in recent years (Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn, Brian Brohm, etc.) and there is no shortage of people who love to hate Notre Dame. Perhaps the most important factor in all of this is that Jimmy has essentially been groomed to be a professional football player since he was very young and the NFL has always been the families ultimate goal. Clausen’s older brothers Casey and Rick were never able to live out that dream despite playing for big-time college programs so he might be inclined to strike while the iron is hot and carry the torch for them. If Clausen does go back to South Bend for his senior year he will once again be surrounded by a wealth of skill position talent (Michael Floyd, Golden Tate, Kyle Rudolph), have a legitimate opportunity to compete for a Heisman Trophy and could be the front-runner to be the #1 overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. There are pros and cons on both sides of the argument but it looks as though there will be more incentive for Clausen to leave than stay and sources close to the Notre Dame program aren’t very optimistic he’ll be back next year. The other thing to keep an eye on is Notre Dame's coaching situation because if they choose to make a change it would in essence seal the deal for Clausen as well. If Charlie Weis isn't going to be coaching the Fighting Irish next season then Clausen will almost assuredly bolt for the NFL and not even think twice.

    At this point I am still not quite ready to label Jimmy Clausen a can’t miss franchise quarterback but he is definitely heading in that direction and based on the way he is currently playing you can make the case that he is in fact the premier draft-eligible signal caller in the country. Assuming he can keep up this pace down the stretch Clausen will have a major decision to make in January but regardless of whether he comes out early or puts off the pros for another year it’s beginning to look like he is destined to become a Top 10 overall pick.

• Mention the South Florida program to a casual college football fan and the names that will probably come up are George Selvie and Matt Grothe. Ask a draftnik about potential first round safety prospects and they will most likely talk about Taylor Mays and Eric Berry. However, despite not being the best safety in the country or even the most well-known player on his own team Nate Allen could have the last laugh on Draft Day next April.

    A three-year starter for the Bulls, Allen appears to be the total package when it comes to physical tools and intangibles. Allen checks in at 6-2 and 207 pounds with 4.5 speed, excellent athleticism and a burst so he certainly has the measurables you look for and to top it all off he’s also very smart with terrific instincts. Even though Allen is known as more of a rangy centerfielder he isn’t afraid to mix it up, showing a willingness to hit and support the run. In fact, through the first five games of the 2009 season Allen is actually leading the Bulls in tackles. Allen isn’t quite in the same league as Berry when it comes to being a ballhawk in the secondary but he’s no slouch either, with 6 career interceptions and counting. In fact, Allen recently earned Defensive Player of the Week honors after his 8 tackle, 2 interception performance against Syracuse. In the last decade South Florida has developed quite a reputation for producing NFL-quality defensive backs and Allen will attempt to follow in the footsteps of Anthony Henry, J.R. Reed and his former teammates Mike Jenkins and Trae Williams.

    There is no question that Taylor Mays is the best senior safety in the country and if Eric Berry comes out he will undoubtedly be one of the elite prospects in this class, regardless of position. With that said Nate Allen has made quite an impression on scouts in the early going and he may not be quite as far behind those two as most think. Heading into his senior season Allen was widely considered to be a legitimate second round pick but based on the way he has been playing there is now a very real chance he could sneak into the latter part of round one. Keep an eye on Allen down the stretch and in all of the pre-draft showcases because he is shooting up draft boards and at this point it looks as though he will indeed be the #3 rated safety prospect for the 2010 NFL Draft.

• Over the last decade or so NFL running backs have primarily been African American. Not only aren’t there any Caucasian running backs starting in the league right now but there isn’t even one who is the primary backup. In fact, Cincinnati Bengals third-stringer Brian Leonard is basically the only white running back who sees any sort of significant action for his team. That wasn’t always the case though and in the coming months Stanford’s Toby Gerhart could have a chance to defy that convention.

    Gerhart, who is leading the nation in rushing with 650 yards, is a big reason why the Cardinal boast a 4-1 record and sit atop the Pac-10 standings. In recent weeks Gerhart has begun to generate some Heisman Trophy buzz and after entering the season projected as a third or fourth round pick his draft stock is on the rise as well. A great athlete who is also a standout baseball player, Gerhart could have an opportunity to pursue a Major League Baseball career as an outfielder but based on the way he is toting the rock this year it’s becoming clear that his future is on the gridiron. The amazing thing is Gerhart probably hasn’t come close to reaching his full potential as a football player because up until now he has spent his offseasons on the baseball diamond rather than lifting weights and preparing for the fall. A big (6-1, 235), tough, physical, aggressive runner with good vision and patience, Gerhart doesn’t go down easily and also has a nose for the endzone, as evidenced by his 20 touchdowns in the last 17 games. Gerhart isn’t real shifty and he lacks elite timed speed, which has caused some to label him a RB / FB ‘tweener, and after missing most of the 2007 season with a knee injury durability might be a concern as well. Still, Gerhart has a unique skill set that will allow him to play a number of different roles and fit into just about any type of offensive system. Gerhart has often been compared to former Stanford star “Touchdown” Tommy Vardell, who the Cleveland Browns chose with the #9 overall pick in the 1992 NFL Draft, but in reality he might be more similar to Tampa Bay Buccaneer star Mike Alstott.

    Much like Brian Leonard when he was coming out of Rutgers the type of player that Gerhart will become in the NFL is heavily dependant upon the team that selects him. Some teams will view him one way, others will view him another. With that said he legitimately has the ability to play running back, fullback or perhaps even a hybrid of the two at the next level and that versatility will work in his favor on Draft Day. There is no question that Toby Gerhart is emerging as one of college football’s premier players but for one reason or another some still don’t consider him to be anything more than an average pro prospect. Who knows whether or not his skin color has anything to do with that but regardless of whether he is white, black, purple or green there is no denying that Gerhart is a heck of a football player and will be playing on Sunday’s.

• Clemson’s C.J. Spiller and California’s Jahvid Best will likely compete with Georgia Tech’s Jonathan Dwyer to be the first running back selected in the 2010 NFL Draft. Unlike the 235 pound Dwyer neither Spiller or Best really fit the mold of what most consider to be a first rounder at the position, checking in at just a shade under 200 pounds. However, in recent years teams have shown a willingness to invest first round picks on running backs that may not necessarily be every-down workhorses, starting with Reggie Bush in 2006 followed by Felix Jones and Chris Johnson a couple of years later. It looks as though Spiller and Best will soon add their names to that list.

    When it comes right down to it both Spiller and Best compare favorably with their predecessors. Spiller, who recently became the ACC’s career leader in all-purpose yards, is a threat to put six points on the board every time he touches the ball. In fact, he has already scored touchdowns as a rusher and receiver as well as on a kickoff and punt return this year! Spiller isn’t very physical and tends to bounce everything outside so, like Felix Jones, he will probably be best utilized in a tandem or situational role at the next level. Still, few can match Spiller when it comes to sheer speed and explosiveness. If Spiller is the next Felix Jones then Jahvid Best may be the next Chris Johnson. Best hasn’t really proven himself to be a dynamic return man like Spiller has but he is a more physical runner, showing some toughness and a willingness to run inside. That is why, despite his lack of bulk, Best has a shot at being a starting running back in the NFL. Make no mistake about it Best is every bit as dangerous as Spiller with the ball in his hands and he can take it to the house at any time from anywhere on the field. Both Spiller and Best have been bothered by minor, nagging injuries throughout their college careers so that is definitely a valid concern which must be taken into account but when healthy they're the types of players that keep coaches and defenders up at night.

    It will be interesting to see where Spiller and Best are ultimately selected because, in all honesty, they are luxury picks. When Dallas and Tennessee drafted Jones and Johnson they already had established veterans in place and weren’t counting on them to be featured runners. It would be hard for a team with a lot of glaring needs to justify taking someone who will most likely be a part-time player early in the first round. That means Spiller and Best will slide a bit, which could be a blessing in disguise because it will allow them to land with a good team that can put them in the best position to succeed. In a day and age where speed kills there aren’t many who are more deadly than Spiller and Best, which is why they will be extremely valuable commodities on Draft Day.

• Jake Locker just might be the best pro quarterback prospect in the country.

    The key words in that sentence are obviously “pro” and “prospect” because there are certainly a number of signal callers with more impressive college resumes. However, when it comes to projecting him to the next level Locker has as much, if not more, potential than anyone in the nation.

    Locker has been playing in relative obscurity for a downtrodden Washington program the past few years, and an injury that wiped out most of his 2008 season sure didn’t help matters either. Most casual fans just discovered Locker a few weeks ago when he valiantly led the Huskies to an upset win over a Southern Cal team that was ranked #3 in the country at the time but pro scouts have been on him for years. A highly-regarded recruit from Ferndale, Washington, Locker held scholarship offers from just about every top school in the land but he chose to stay home and be the centerpiece of Tyrone Willingham’s rebuilding effort. After redshirting his first year Locker assumed the starting job in 2007 and racked up some impressive numbers with both his arm and feet, earning Pac-10 Freshman of the Year honors as well as Freshman All-American notice. Big things were expected of Locker the following year but unfortunately he broke his thumb while executing a downfield block and only played in four contests. Now a junior, Locker is off to a great start and through four games he has completed 58.1% of his passes (which is a huge improvement) for 1,001 yards with a 2-to-1 TD / INT ratio while still proving to be a dangerous threat on the ground.

    Known as more of a “thrower” and “athlete” early in his career, Locker was often referred to as a “West Coast Tim Tebow” but he always had the sheer talent and elite intangibles to be a star. Checking in at a solid 6-3, 225 pounds with speed rumored to be in the 4.4 range, Locker was such a good centerfielder in high school that he was selected in the Major League Baseball Amateur Draft on two separate occasions and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim recently paid him $300,000 just to maintain his rights, even though he made it clear that his focus was on football. Determined to take his game on the gridiron to the next level, Locker spent this past offseason overhauling his throwing motion and mechanics with noted quarterback guru Steve Clarkson and his new Head Coach Steve Sarkisian and the work has really paid off. In many ways he has made the types of strides as a passer that we just haven’t seen from Tebow. Needless to say all of those NFL scouts that were already extremely impressed with Locker have now become captivated by the new and improved version.

    It’s important to stress that Locker is by no means a finished product and another year in college would certainly be beneficial to his development. However, Locker will at least have one year of experience in a pro style offense, which is more than you can say for Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy and Tim Tebow, and based on the way his draft stock is skyrocketing it may be in his best interests to come out early. Why risk injury or perhaps have to deal with the looming rookie salary scale when you are already a sure-fire first round pick with Top 10 potential? It will be interesting to see if Locker can continue to evolve and maintain this momentum throughout the rest of the season but based on the way he is playing it is probably time to start including his name in the conversation of top quarterback prospects for the 2010 NFL Draft.