• Interior offensive linemen never get a lot of attention so from time to time I like to feature one in this blog. Today I'd like to tell you about Auburn offensive guard Tyronne Green, who is actually a much better prospect than most realize.
After initially beginning his college career as a defensive tackle Green moved to the offensive line in 2005 where he backed up Ben Grubbs before entering the starting lineup as a junior in 2007. Playing in the SEC it seems like Green faces NFL-caliber talent at defensive tackle on a weekly basis, whether it be Glenn Dorsey, Pat Sims, Marcus Harrison, Peria Jerry, Ricky Jean-Francois, etc., and when you watch him on film Green has proven very capable of holding his own. He doesn't have great size and is only about 6-2 and 300 lbs. but Green is an excellent athlete with great quickness who is very light on his feet. In addition to those intriguing physical tools Green also earns high marks in the intangibles department. When it comes to sending offensive lineman to the pros Auburn has a pretty impressive track record in recent years, from Grubbs to King Dunlap, Marcus McNeill, Kendall Simmons and even a couple of other guys in Tim Duckworth and Troy Reddick who weren't drafted but were still legit prospects. Come next April Tyronne Green's name will be added to that list.
In terms of the NFL Draft the general consensus seems to be that Green is a fringe Day One pick and I definitely concur. Historically there hasn't been a huge demand for true offensive guards in the top few rounds of the draft and in the last five years or so there has only been an average of 2-4 selected in that range. With that said Green just might have the talent to defy those long odds.
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September 29th, 2008
• Those who watched the Penn St. / Illinois game this past weekend caught a glimpse of the potential that made Derrick Williams such an elite recruit four years ago and the talent that makes him such an intriguing pro prospect now.
In 2005 Rivals named Derrick Williams the #1 recruit in the entire country. Not the #1 wide receiver, the #1 recruit regardless of position. Williams surprised some when he chose to play for the Nittany Lions but his commitment kicked off a mini resurgence for that program and helped lure other upper-echelon athletes to Penn State. Even though Williams has been a nice player for the Nittany Lions most view his college career as somewhat of a disappointment. Now if there hadn't been so much hype and fanfare before he ever stepped foot on campus that perception might be different but the bottom line is that Williams has never developed into the elite, gamebreaking player most expected. Williams might not be a superstar but his performance against the Illini last weekend was a perfect example of the type of player he could be at the next level. In addition to his 6 catches for 75 yards and a touchdown Williams also made an impact on special teams, returning 3 kicks for 133 yards (44.3 avg.) and he even took one back 94 yards to the house. Williams is never going to be a #1 wideout in the NFL but he could be a solid #2 and you have to wonder if he has been underutilized in Happy Valley. Williams has played in a relatively conservative, run-orientated offensive scheme and has also had to compete with Deon Butler and Jordan Norwood (who are also pro prospects) for touches. If he had been in a different situation would he maybe have had more of an opportunity to showcase the ability that had every big-time college coach in the country drooling over him four years ago? Despite all of the criticism Williams has received he is a great natural athlete, he has pretty good size (6-0, 194), he is very tough and a hard worker with excellent intangibles, he is a terror in the open field, and even though he may lack blazing timed speed he is very quick. Williams may not be star material but he does still have some upside and I am confident he can play at the next level in one capacity or another. Even in a worst-case scenario I think he can make it as a #3 / slot receiver and return specialist. I currently have Williams ranked as my #3 senior wideout but keep in mind that this is a very weak crop so that might be a bit misleading. Williams isn't going to be a first rounder, he probably won't be a second rounder and he might not even be a third rounder but I encourage you to keep an eye on him because he could be the type who ends up being a better pro than college player.
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September 26th, 2008
• Two years ago there were three small-school tight ends selected in the NFL Draft, Kevin Boss, Ben Patrick and Michael Allan. The 2009 NFL Draft once again features a strong crop of sleepers at the tight end position and the headliner of the group is Northeastern's Brian Mandeville.
A good natural athlete who actually began his college career as a defensive end, Mandeville has only been playing tight end for a little over two years but he has soft, reliable hands to go along with intriguing height (6-7) and the frame to bulk up further. Mandeville is still raw, doesn't have great timed speed (4.8) and needs to get stronger but it's not a stretch to say that his best football is still ahead of him. Mandeville recently caught the attention of scouts when he snared 5 passes for 83 yards against Syracuse, the lone "big" program on the Huskies schedule this season. At this point Mandeville is definitely a draftable prospect and he could even get some looks as early as the 4th or 5th round. Could he be the next Kevin Boss?
In addition to Mandeville there are also a handful of other small-school tight end prospects with legitimate shots at being drafted next April, most notably David Johnson from Arkansas St., Jared Bronson from Central Washington, and Marquez Branson from Central Arkansas. Everyone knows that if you have talent the NFL will find you and when the 2009 NFL Draft rolls around teams may once again be mining the small-school ranks for hidden gems at tight end.
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September 25th, 2008
• There was a time when the 3-4 defense was somewhat of a gimmick and only a handful of NFL teams ran it. However, in recent years the 3-4 has become much more prominent and by my count about 1/3 of the league's teams now use the 3-4 as their base scheme. A key component to any good 34 defense is a stud nose tackle, however it's becoming increasingly clear that when it comes to the NFL Draft the supply just isn't meeting the demand. In fact, last year Ahtyba Rubin was the only true 3-4 nose tackle selected and that was by Cleveland in the sixth round. The Class of 2009 isn't loaded with true nose tackles either but it does feature one prospect who will likely draw a lot of interest from teams that run a 3-4 scheme.
B.J. Raji of Boston College.
A massive widebody who checks in at a stout 6-1 and 323 lbs., Raji looks like a prototypical 3-4 nose tackle. Raji is extremely strong and does a terrific job of holding his ground against the run, however he offers very little as a pass rusher, really struggles with his stamina and has also had some issues with his surgically repaired shoulders. Raji also missed the entire 2007 season after being declared academically ineligible so his commitment and maturity have been called into question as well. Some have labeled Raji as a potential first round pick but I have a hard time envisioning a one-dimensional player with so many question marks coming off the board that early. With that said I would not be shocked to see someone take a chance on him in round two or three next April. Who might be interested in him? Miami needs a long-term answer at the position since Jason Ferguson is in his mid-thirties. The Chargers need some insurance behind Jamal Williams. Perhaps San Francisco...
Personally, I am not quite as high on Raji as most and for me he is more of a third or fourth round pick but I can certainly see how a 3-4 team in need of a nose tackle would be tempted to pull the trigger a little early. The bottom line is that Raji is a true nose tackle and those guys don't just grow on trees these days.
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September 24th, 2008
• I've held off for a few weeks but it's finally time to toot my own horn a bit.
Those who have followed this site over the years may remember that I was a big fan of Aaron Rodgers when he was coming out of California. In fact, I had Rodgers rated as the #1 prospect for the 2005 NFL Draft. Not the #1 quarterback. The #1 prospect overall. Alex Smith, who looks like a bust, was actually the top pick of that draft while Rodgers wound up falling all the way to the Packers at #24 overall and over the last few years I have often said that when Rodgers finally got his chance in Green Bay he was either going to make me look real good or real bad. Well, after three games as the full-time starter Rodgers is completing 65% of his passes, has a 102.9 quarterback rating and he has yet to throw an interception. Oh, and he has also run for a couple of scores too. It's obviously still pretty early but let's just say I really like what I have seen from Rodgers this year and he has done absolutely nothing to alter my already exceedingly lofty opinion of him.
In the interest of full disclosure I will be the first to admit that, like everyone else, I also had my fair share of misses in 2005. Even though I didn't have him as the top player or even the top quarterback I did have Alex Smith rated very high. Then there is Cedric Benson, who just might be my all-time biggest mistake to date. However, while nobody expected Rodgers to fall as far as he did on Draft Day I was much higher on him than most. I doubt you will find many who even had him as the top player at his position, let alone the top player in the whole draft. I might actually have been loyal to Rodgers to a fault... As the draft neared I ignored the talk about how Rodgers was dropping and trusted my evaluation, which is why I still had him going in the Top 5 overall of my final mock. Looking back that certainly didn't help my score in the mock draft contests but it does reaffirm just how much I thought of him. Now 2005 was not a great draft and there weren't any "Elite" prospects so had Rodgers been mixed in with the crop of talent a year before or a year later I wouldn't have had him as my top overall player and maybe not even in my Top 3. With that said Rodgers is still one of the Top 10 quarterback prospects that I have ever graded and in my opinion he was the total package in terms of both physical tools and intangibles.
I don't want to come off like I am right 100% of the time (far from it!) because in this business you are going to win some and lose some. It doesn't matter if you are Bill Polian or Mel Kiper, the NFL Draft is an inexact science. However, I will put my record over the last 10+ years up against anyone else's and Aaron Rodgers is just another feather in my cap that I'm awfully proud of.
There is actually a similar situation brewing in Cleveland right now. In 2007 I had Brady Quinn rated as my #1 quarterback and #2 player overall, even though most had the eventual top pick JaMarcus Russell ahead of him. Quinn inexplicably fell all the way to #22 but after biding his time behind Derek Anderson it looks like his opportunity to play is just right around the corner and there is no doubt in my mind that, like Rodgers, he too will make me look good. In other words you might be reading another entry like this in about a month!
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September 23rd, 2008
• If someone had asked me a couple of months ago which North Carolina wide receiver was the best pro prospect the answer would have been Brooks Foster. In fact, it would have been a no-brainer. However, I guess that is why they play the games... Not to take anything away from Foster, who is still a good player and a solid prospect in his own right, but it's his teammate Brandon Tate that really has scouts around the league buzzing.
With a grand total of 30 career receptions to his name coming into the '08 season Tate was considered by most to be, at best, a marginal late round prospect who would have to carve out a niche as a return specialist to make it at the next level. Well, Tate is still an excellent return man, averaging 31.1 yards on kicks and 28.2 yards on punts this year, but he has also emerged as a legitimate receiving threat and playmaker on offense with 11 catches for 297 yards (27.0 avg.) and 3 touchdowns in the Tar Heels first three games. For good measure Tate has also carried the ball 7 times for 141 yards (20.1 avg.) and a score.
That's what you call a jack-of-all-trades!
At 6-1 and 195 lbs. Tate definitely has the size you look for and even though his timed speed (4.5) is relatively average he plays faster once the pads are on and is very elusive. As a result of his sudden outburst scouts are becoming increasingly enamored with Tate and he has begun to see his draft stock soar. In fact, some are already stamping third and fourth round grades on Tate and if he manages to keep up this pace who knows how high he could eventually climb. Might he be a poor-man's Devin Thomas?
Every year we see prospects seemingly come out of nowhere and Tate appears to be one of those guys. In recent years it seems as though the NFL has placed more of an emphasis on versatility and game changing return men, which bodes well for Tate because he earns very high marks in both categories.
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September 22nd, 2008
• It's no secret that this crop of senior running backs leaves a lot to be desired and barring something unforeseen it doesn't look like a first round pick will emerge from that group. However, one prospect who has been making some noise in scouting circles is Javon Ringer of Michigan St.
Ringer was already widely-regarded to be one of the top three senior running back prospects in the country heading into the 2008 season but his play thus far has left a very positive impression on scouts. At 5-9 and 202 lbs. Ringer certainly isn't the biggest guy around, which has led to him being labeled as a backup or situational type. That might ultimately be the case but Ringer is actually very strong for a guy his size and he has proven to be a much better inside runner than anyone thought. In fact, Ringer has actually been a real workhorse for the Spartans this year, carrying the ball an average of 35 times per game so far this season. Through the first four games Ringer is also leading the nation in scoring (11 TD's) and is second in rushing (175 YPG). In addition to that outstanding production scouts have also come away from East Lansing extremely impressive with Ringer's work ethic, leadership and overall intangibles. Like Ray Rice a year ago concerns about Ringer's lack of ideal measurables will probably put a cap on his draft stock but if he can run in the 4.4 range in workouts Ringer could come off the board as early as the second round. Personally, I was and still am a big fan of Clemson's James Davis so it will be difficult for Ringer to overtake him for the top spot in my positional rankings but that may not be the case around the league and it looks like Ringer now has a legitimate shot to emerge as either the #1 or #2 senior at his position.
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September 19th, 2008
• USC's Mark Sanchez is emerging as a potential Top 10 overall pick.
When you think about it Sanchez probably should have been ranked among the elite quarterback prospects all along considering his pedigree. Coming out of high school most recruiting services had Sanchez rated as the #1 signal caller in the country but instead of committing to a college where he could compete for early playing time he opted for Southern Cal, where he served as the backup to Matt Leinart and John David Booty for the past three seasons. He has essentially been a prodigy incubating in a quarterback factory, preparing to follow in the footsteps of Carson Palmer and Leinart. Sanchez is finally getting his opportunity to start in 2008 and so far he has lived up to all the hype and then some, completing 68% of his passes through the Trojans first two contests.
Sanchez doesn't necessarily have a cannon for an arm but his physical tools are adequate to good across the board and he also earns high marks in the intangibles department. The biggest knock on Sanchez as a pro prospect right now is his lack of experience but that is something that will be taken care of in due time. Personally, I have a hard time seeing Sanchez challenging Matthew Stafford for the top quarterback spot, assuming both come out early that is, but in my mind there is no question he has already surpassed Tim Tebow and is now the #2 rated quarterback prospect for 2009. Will an NFL team be willing to invest a Top 10 pick on a guy with just one year of starting experience? Considering the lack of other options I think the answer is "Yes". There isn't anything close to a first rounder in the senior class and while some believe Tebow is an early first round talent he comes with a lot more question marks than Sanchez does. Think about it, if you are going to invest $50 million in a quarterback would you rather have someone who played in a pro style system like Sanchez or someone from the very same offense that produced Alex Smith?
At this point it is almost impossible to even guess whether or not Sanchez would come out early and enter the 2009 NFL Draft but if he keeps playing like this he is definitely going to have a pretty difficult decision to make in January.
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September 18th, 2008
• Less than one month after the 2006 NFL Draft I wrote this about the Minnesota Vikings selection of Tarvaris Jackson:
"The Vikings continued their downward spiral when they traded two third round picks to get back into the second round to choose Alabama St. quarterback Tarvaris Jackson, who was actually beaten out by Matt Jones when both were at Arkansas. I will be the first to admit that Jackson has some intriguing physical tools and I thought he would be a nice pick for someone in the late rounds as a developmental signal caller but for Minnesota to take him where they did was a monumental mistake. One of the biggest misconceptions out there is that Brad Johnson played great last season, which just isn't true. Johnson played solid, mistake-free football and beat some poor to mediocre teams (Green Bay twice, Detroit twice, Cleveland, St. Louis) but when he actually faced some real competition such as Pittsburgh and Chicago he laid an egg. Johnson has been a very good pro quarterback and is one of the best backups in the league but he will be 38-years-old next season and is no longer the type you want to have starting for a prolonged stretch. Even in a best-case scenario Jackson is not going to be ready to contribute for a few years and for a team who could need a new quarterback any given week it just did not make sense for them to invest so much in a long-term project. Also, you have to consider that Minnesota essentially used two 3rd rounders and a 2nd rounder to select Jackson when they could have moved up and got Jay Cutler for much less."
Well, today Jackson was officially benched in favor of Gus Frerotte and while this move leaves the Vikings in a world of trouble long-term you have to give Brad Childress credit for recognizing his mistake and trying to correct it before it was too late. As the saying goes: "Stupidity is what gets us in trouble, Pride is what keeps us there." Childress really went out on a limb when he chose Jackson as high as he did and he may have doomed the Vikings 2008 season by opting to give Tarvaris one more chance but after a disappointing 0-2 start Childress was finally forced to swallow his pride and do what needed to be done.
The 37-year-old Frerotte may be able to right the Vikings ship this season and he might not but the only certainty is that he is not the long-term solution under center in Minnesota. By benching Jackson now the team is all but admitting he isn't that guy either which means the Vikings will be in the market for a signal caller next offseason. The question is where will they find him?
Let's look at the options they may have available to them:
The In-House Candidate:John David Booty
- When the Vikings traded up in the fifth round to select Booty it looked like a good move at the time but after the way he played in the preseason (36.9 Passer Rating, 0 TD's and 3 INT's) you have to wonder if he will ever be anything more than a backup in the pros. They can't count on him to start anytime soon.
Free Agency:Matt Cassel
- It's not very often that a young, starting-caliber quarterback becomes available on the open market but assuming Cassel doesn't lay an egg for the Pats the rest of this season he should be a very valuable commodity. There will still be some risks associated with Cassel and he won't come cheap but a team that is as desperate as Minnesota just might be willing to take that leap of faith.
Trade:Brady Quinn
- If Derek Anderson is indeed the real deal then Quinn will likely be available next offseason, although the Browns aren't going to give him away. Cleveland would probably want at least a first round pick for the former Notre Dame star but that might actually be a small price to pay considering his pedigree and the fact that he already has two years of pro experience under his belt. Quinn isn't a sure-thing but he'd almost certainly be a much better option than anyone Minnesota would be able to select in the middle or latter portion of round one.
Draft:Multiple Possibilities
- If I were the Vikings I wouldn't count on getting a starting quarterback in the draft next April. Unless the wheels really fall off this year they won't be picking high enough to have a shot at the top guys like Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez or Tim Tebow and those who think they can find a savior in Clemson's Cullen Harper or Purdue's Curtis Painter later on obviously haven't read my article on the success rate of quarterbacks chosen in the second and third round.
If I were running the show in Minnesota I would pursue a trade for Brady Quinn. It will definitely be expensive but the Vikings have already shown that they aren't afraid to deal draft picks in the Jared Allen trade. With Quinn you get a guy who is ready to step in as the starter and at least manage the offense in 2009, which is important because this Vikings team is built to win now. Quinn probably has more upside than Cassel does as well. An added bonus is that Quinn is already signed to a relatively modest contract so there won't be a ridiculous financial commitment like there would be with Cassel, who might command a contract in the $50 million range. None of these options come without great risk but because the Vikings put themselves in such a tenuous position by investing so much misplaced faith in Tarvaris Jackson they have no other choice but to make a huge gamble and overpay for their next signal caller.
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September 17th, 2008
• Is Clemson's Cullen Harper damaged goods?
It's never a good sign when a quarterback has shoulder issues but that appears to be the case with Harper, who apparently sprained his AC joint in the Tigers first game against Alabama. That is the same shoulder he hurt last November that required surgery after the regular season. On one hand you have to give Harper credit for playing through the injury but it's been pretty obvious that it has been affecting his play so far this season. Harper's arm just doesn't seem to be as strong as it was in the past and he has even admitted it feels like he's battling a case of "tired arm".
Yikes.
Coming into the 2008 season Harper was widely regarded to be the top senior quarterback prospect in the country and a fringe first rounder but his slow start and questions about his health have tempered that enthusiasm. He is still one of the top senior signal callers available but at this point the first round is looking less and less likely and Purdue's Curtis Painter might be starting to close the gap. Hopefully Harper will be able to get healthy and put his best foot forward for scouts down the stretch but anytime you are talking about multiple shoulder injuries with a quarterback there has to be a certain level of concern. Needless to say Harper will be receiving a lot of attention in the medical checkups at the Scouting Combine. If he is given a clean bill of health Harper will probably be one of the first quarterbacks selected next April and a second round pick. However, if there is more than meets the eye with this shoulder situation he may begin to slide a bit.
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September 16th, 2008
• Kansas City is the worst team in the NFL.
How bad have things gotten in KC? A week ago the Oakland Raiders were widely panned for their pathetic performance in a 41-14 loss to Denver and many felt they might be the worst team in the league. Well, in Week 2 the Raiders gave Kansas City the business with the Chiefs only avoiding a shutout by punching in a garbage time score. We know the Raiders aren't that good so it must mean the Chiefs are just that bad.
Coming into the season everyone knew that 2008 was a rebuilding year for the Chiefs and many, including myself, had them picking #1 overall in their early mock drafts. Now in the NFL there are always surprises, with some teams being better than you thought and some being worse, but it looks like the Chiefs might live down to those pre-season expectations. There is still a lot of football left to be played and if Kansas City wins two or three games it could be enough to knock them out of contention for the #1 pick. However, assuming they are indeed as bad as they have looked in their first couple of contests the Chiefs will have a big decision to make next April. A team this bad obviously has a plethora of needs and you could make a strong case for Rey Maualuga, James Laurinaitis, Vontae Davis, or Michael Johnson but when push comes to shove the Chiefs have to be thinking quarterback if they wind up with the top pick. Brodie Croyle is hurt again, continuing a trend that dates back to his college days, but even when he is on the field Croyle has done more to prove he isn't the long-term answer under center than he has to prove he is. While Croyle is out Tyler Thigpen is getting a shot but he is a former 7th round pick and let's just say the early returns have not been positive. At every level of football it all begins with the quarterback and the Chiefs just don't have one. It is that simple.
There isn't a first rounder among the senior signal callers, let alone a #1 overall pick, so the Chiefs had better hope the top underclassmen opt to come out early. Topping that list is Georgia's Matthew Stafford, who has everything you look for in a franchise quarterback physically and is really starting to blossom in 2008. Next up would probably be Florida's Tim Tebow but there are a lot of question marks with him and Kansas City can't afford to take any unnecessary risks. In other words it just may be Stafford or Bust for the Chiefs.
Based on early returns teams like St. Louis, Detroit, Miami and even Cincinnati could all give the Chiefs a run for that #1 pick but assuming they do end up picking first and assuming he comes out Matthew Stafford to Kansas City might be as much of a lock as we have seen this early in the draft process.
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September 15th, 2008
• Notre Dame's Tom Zbikowski received a lot of attention while he was in college but for the most part he was pretty overrated as a pro prospect. However, this year the Irish have another safety who is in a totally different situation. Not only is David Bruton vastly under publicized but in my opinion he is also being underrated by scouts and draftniks alike.
At 6-2 and 205 lbs. with a big, rangy frame Bruton certainly has the size you look for and while he doesn't have blazing speed (4.55) he appears to be pretty athletic. Physical tools aside though Bruton is a true football player; one those guys who continually flashes and always seems to be around the action. Just to give you an idea about what kind of playmaker and hitter Bruton is take note that he has already forced three turnovers inside the five-yard line this year and the season is only two games old. In addition to his defensive prowess Bruton is also one of the top special teams mavens in the nation, showing an uncanny knack for getting down the field and making the tackle while covering kicks. A team captain and excellent student (political science major) at Notre Dame, Bruton gets high marks in the " intangibles " department as well.
Safety will arguably be one of the strongest and deepest positions in the 2009 NFL Draft but in my mind Bruton is still a legitimate third round pick. In fact, I think he is a much better prospect than Zbikowski was a year ago and the Baltimore Ravens chose him in round three. Bruton may never be a superstar in the pros but he definitely has the ability to start and even in a worst-case scenario he should still be an outstanding backup and special teams ace. Guys like Nic Harris and Kevin Ellison might have higher profiles and be getting more national attention but at the end of the day David Bruton's a better pro prospect.
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September 12th, 2008
September 13, 2008 | 8:00 PM ET on ABC
This weekends USC / Ohio State game is a draftniks dream come true.
I am not exaggerating when I say there won't be another game this year that features as many future pros as this matchup between the Trojans and the Buckeyes. The amount of talent that is going to be on that field Saturday night is mind-boggling.
Let's take a look at some of the potential draftees in this game:
And that is just the seniors!
Sure these two teams have a couple of dozen players with a realistic shot at being drafted next year, including two of the top senior prospects in the country in Maualuga and Laurinaitis, but it's when you begin to look at the underclassmen ranks that things really start to get sick. Chris "Beanie" Wells could be a Top 3 overall pick next April. Taylor Mays could be a first rounder. Mark Sanchez and Lawrence Wilson are beginning to emerge as two of the best players at their positions in the junior class. And the scary thing is USC is just absolutely loaded with talent in their sophomore class as well! It's just amazing.
Not only will this be a clash between two top ranked teams and one of the best college football games of the year but it truly is a matchup of prospect heavyweights. The Trojans and Buckeyes consistently produce top NFL talent year after year but you would be hard-pressed to find a time when both teams have had as many pro prospects as they do right now. The 2003 Fiesta Bowl that pitted Miami (FL) against Ohio State is kind of the modern day benchmark for a game that featured the most future pros but this USC / Ohio St. contest could ultimately match or [gasp!] perhaps even top it when all is said and done.
As Terrell Owens would say: "Getcha Popcorn Ready"
Don't just watch this game, tape it. Believe me, you will want to have it on hand to refer back to throughout the 2009 draft process. And 2010. And 2011...
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September 11th, 2008
• Last year Keith Rivers and Jerod Mayo were both Top 10 overall picks and from top to bottom linebacker will probably be one of the strongest positions in the 2009 NFL Draft. However, while Rey Maualuga and James Laurinaitis are getting most of the attention there is another senior 'backer who the majority of scouts view as a sure-fire 1st rounder that people don't seem to be talking about.
Aaron Curry of Wake Forest.
In fact, Curry is probably the least-heralded top prospect in the country. Not only do I have him as the #1 outside linebacker in my positional rankings but he is also #8 on my overall senior board.
So why is Curry flying under the radar? Honestly, I have no idea. You want production? As a junior in 2007 Curry had 99 tackles, including 13.5 for a loss, and also returned 3 interceptions for touchdowns. You want physical tools? He has them too, checking in at a solid 6-3/247 while running a reported 4.60 forty. In other words Curry is big and strong enough to take on blockers but also fast and athletic enough to drop back into coverage. It seems like in recent years most of the top outside linebacker prospects have been predominantly undersized weakside types but Curry is a true SAM and could play in either a 4-3 or a 3-4 scheme. He's the total package.
Even though the national media and average fans aren't paying much attention to Curry you better believe pro scouts know all about him. Curry is going to be a 1st round pick next April, the only question is how high he will go.
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September 10th, 2008
• Call me crazy but I think Percy Harvin is vastly overrated as a pro prospect.
That probably sounds like blaspheme to some because Harvin has a lot of fans out there in the draftnik community but to me he is the fourth best wide receiver prospect for the 2009 NFL Draft behind Jeremy Maclin, Darius Heyward-Bey and Michael Crabtree. There is no question that when he is healthy Harvin is one of the most explosive, dynamic weapons in the college game and can be a weapon as a receiver, runner and a return man. However the key line in that sentence is when he is healthy and those times have been few and far between the last couple of years. In fact, he is still currently battling a nagging heel injury. Also, Harvin is moved around so much in the Gators spread offense that he really isn't a very polished wide receiver. Don't quote me on this but it almost seems like he played as much running back as he did wideout for the Gators as a sophomore in 2007.
Personally, at this point I don't think he is as good of a pro prospect as either Ted Ginn or DeSean Jackson were coming out of college. Granted there is a wide gap between where those two were drafted, with one going in the top ten overall and the other falling all the way to the middle of round two, but in my mind Percy Harvin currently has more question marks than either of them did.
Does Harvin have the talent to be a first round pick in 2009?
Absolutely.
If the draft were today would I have him graded as a first rounder?
Absolutely not.
Of course it is important to keep in mind that Harvin is still only a true junior so he theoretically has the entire 2008 season and all of 2009 to get healthy and maximize his potential / pro grade. However, if he does opt to come out early he might not be chosen quite as high as some would lead you to believe, especially if all of the other top underclassmen pass catchers come out, and if someone did take him in the top half of round one I would probably be pretty critical of that decision. Like his teammate Tim Tebow it is going to be interesting to see where Percy Harvin is ultimately selected but as of this moment I have enough reservations about him that I would be relatively conservative with my grade.
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September 9th, 2008
• Those who follow this site closely already know about Ohio University's Mark Parson because he has been the cornerback on my "Underrated" list since day one. Those who weren't familiar with Parson should be now though after his excellent performance against Ohio State last weekend.
Parson was matched up against one of the best wideouts in the country in Brian Robiskie and he managed to hold him to just 3 catches for 8 yards, a 2.7 average, as the Bobcats almost upset the Buckeyes. Now Robiskie is a potential Day One pick in the 2009 NFL Draft and Parson essentially shut him down. When it comes to size (5-10, 188) and speed (4.50) Parson doesn't really stand out but he is just one of those guys who plays much bigger and faster with the pads on and unlike some cornerback prospects he is adept at matching up in man coverage. Parson is also an extremely physical player who isn't afraid to get rough with receivers at the line of scrimmage or come up to support the run. In terms of weaknesses, beyond his lack of ideal measurables Parson also needs to work on catching some of the balls he gets his hands on (23 passes defensed the past two years but only 3 interceptions) but in some ways he reminds me of a poor-man's Antoine Winfield. I don't see Parson as an early round pick and he will probably be more of a nickel or dime guy at the next level but in my mind he is certainly a draftable prospect at this point and I could even envision him sneaking up into the middle rounds if things break just right.
So remember the name Mark Parson because even though he might not be getting all of the attention he deserves people are starting to find out about him.
I can guarantee you Brian Robiskie knows who he is.
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September 8th, 2008
• It looks like Tom Brady's season might be over thanks to a knee injury.
Wow.
If Brady is indeed done for the year it is obviously devastating for him, the Patriots and the NFL as a whole. And let's not forget all the people who took him in the first round of their fantasy drafts either! We all know that injuries are a part of the game but it is still pretty shocking to see a star of this magnitude go down for the count, especially so early in the season. What a shame.
There are a lot of angles to look at this story from but it has to start with New England because this is the nightmare scenario for them. For a couple of years people have been questioning the Patriots decision to not carry a more proven backup but they apparently had a lot of confidence in Matt Cassel and now it is time to see if they will be rewarded for their loyalty. The odds-on Super Bowl favorite's fate now rests on a guy who didn't even start in college and had attempted a grand total of 57 passes in his previous four seasons as a pro. Yikes. Then again it's not like Brady was a huge superstar before he took over for Drew Bledsoe back in 2001 either.
The Patriots are bringing in Chris Simms for a tryout but why not sign Daunte Culpepper? Sure he just retired but I am sure Daunte would jump at the opportunity to join a contending team where he might even be able to compete for a starting job at some point. In Culpepper you have an experienced former Pro Bowler who should technically still be in the prime of his career and don't forget he obviously has some chemistry with Randy Moss from their days together in Minnesota. Maybe Culpepper is washed up but in my opinion it would be worth taking a flyer on him because the potential rewards far outweigh the risks. Of course by the time any newcomer, whether it be Simms or Culpepper, learns the Pats offense their season could already be in shambles...
As for Cassel this is finally his time to shine. After being stuck behind Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart in college and now Brady in the pros perhaps Cassel is actually a great player who has just never been given a real opportunity. We are going to find out if Cassel has the goods now though as he takes the reigns of an explosive offense and will be surrounded by a lot of talent. If Cassel does come through and plays well in 2008 he could be in line for a big payday next offseason, when he will be an unrestricted free agent. Cassel would obviously want an opportunity to start and that isn't happening in New England but assuming he plays well the rest of this season there will be a huge market for his services. Think about it, why invest a first round pick and a boatload of money in a guy with so many question marks like Tim Tebow when you could go get a 26-year-old veteran who is already a proven commodity? If Cassel does turn out to be the real deal the offseason quarterback market just got a major boost.
Ultimately Tom Brady's injury is terrible news (except for Matt Cassel that is) but on the bright side the '08 NFL season just got a whole lot more interesting.
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September 5th, 2008
• With such a weak crop of senior quarterbacks everyone is wondering where the first round signal callers are going to come from. Most of the talk so far has centered around Matthew Stafford and Tim Tebow but there is another junior passer who has been generating quite a bit of buzz in the scouting community.
Josh Freeman of Kansas St.
One of the top recruits in the nation coming out of high school, Freeman originally committed to Nebraska before changing course and ending up at K-State. Physically Freeman has everything you look for in a top quarterback prospect, including outstanding size (6-6, 250), a big arm and above average athleticism. Freeman is still developing as a passer but he began to emerge as a very intriguing prospect as a sophomore in '07, completing 63% of his passes for 3,300 yards with an 18-to-11 TD to INT ratio. If he can continue to improve and make similar strides as a junior Freeman could enjoy a JaMarcus Russell-esque rise up pro draft boards.
Odds are Freeman will stay in school all four years and that would probably be a wise choice because he's not a finished product by any stretch of the imagination. With that said he has a special set of physical tools that already has some scouts drooling and even though he doesn't get nearly as much ink as some of the other signal callers in his class Freeman could eventually end up being just as good of a prospect. With all the attention quarterbacks get it's rare for one to fly under the radar but that might actually be the case with this guy.
Keep a close eye on Josh Freeman, if not for 2009 then definitely for 2010.
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September 4th, 2008
• The first regular season game of 2008 is tonight so I guess it is time for my fearless (fearful?) predictions. It is awfully tough to be accurate with these given the parity we have in the NFL these days but that hasn't stopped me in the past.
So without further adieu...
• AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers
• AFC South: Indianapolis Colts
• AFC West: San Diego Chargers
• AFC East: New England Patriots
• AFC Wildcard: Jacksonville Jaguars
• AFC Wildcard: New York Jets
• NFC North: Minnesota Vikings
• NFC South: New Orleans Saints
• NFC West: Seattle Seahawks
• NFC East: Dallas Cowboys
• NFC Wildcard: Philadelphia Eagles
• NFC Wildcard: Carolina Panthers
Super Bowl: San Diego Chargers over the Dallas Cowboys
Offensive MVP Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
Offensive Rookie of the Year Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders
Defensive MVP Jared Allen, DE, Minnesota Vikings
Defensive Rookie of the Year Keith Rivers, LB, Cincinnati Bengals
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September 3rd, 2008
• Last year there were eight offensive tackles taken in the first round and while that mark probably won't be matched next spring this is once again shaping up to be a very strong crop of blockers. Everyone knows about Michael Oher, Eugene Monroe and Phil Loadholt but there are a couple of other guys who currently carry early round grades that most really don't know much about yet.
Duane Brown surprised just about everyone (except me) when he snuck into the back end of round one last April and Baylor's Jason Smith could follow his lead next year. Smith, like Brown, actually began his college career as a tight end, where started eight games as a redshirt freshman and even caught a touchdown before moving to the offensive line in 2006. An athletic left tackle with outstanding feet, Smith is still a bit raw and is a much better pass than run blocker at this point but he has the tools to protect the blind side at the next level. Others might get more attention on the national scene but Smith could very well end up being the third senior offensive tackle off the board and a first round pick in the '09 NFL Draft.
In many ways South Carolina's Jamon Meredith is similar to Smith in that he is another athletic left tackle with a reputation for being a strong pass protector. A four-year starter with experience at both right and left tackle, Meredith has all the physical tools you look for and hasn't yet reached his full potential. Some have concerns about Meredith's intangibles which is why he is probably more of a second round pick at this point but if he can put it all together as a senior in 2008 he too has the sheer talent to break into the Top 32.
Last year's draft proved once again that teams are always looking for top offensive linemen, especially true left tackles. Casual fans may not be familar with Smith and Meredith yet but they will both be highly coveted prospects next April and will help make the offensive line one of the draft's strongest positions.
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September 2nd, 2008
• Florida St. safety Myron Rolle is a rare prospect, but it's not just his play on the field that makes him so unique. Rolle has been a prominent name on the national football scene since his prep days in New Jersey when he was the #1 safety recruit in the entire nation, however it's his off-the-field exploits that have made him such an intriguing pro prospect.
I know, these days when you read "off-the-field" images of the Pacman Jones' and Chris Henry's of the world probably jump to mind but in the case of Rolle the term actually has a positive connotation.
As good of a football player as Rolle is, and he is very good, he's an even better student. In fact, he carries a 3.75 GPA and is slated to earn his undergraduate degree from Florida St. in just two-and-a-half years. Oh, and did I mention what his major is? Pre-Med! That's right, in addition to being an outstanding Division I football player Rolle is also going to complete, with honors, an extremely demanding academic program in half the time it takes most "normal" students. Absolutely amazing.
In this day and age of football factories that produce alarmingly low graduation rates there is simply no better role model or success story than Rolle.
This is where things get interesting though...
Since Rolle will have a degree in hand after his junior season most feel he is a strong candidate to leave early for the NFL Draft. However, because of his exceptional work in the classroom Rolle is going to be nominated for a Rhodes Scholarship, which is one of the most prestigious academic awards in the world. If he is selected Rolle will likely face a difficult decision: Play in the NFL or head to the United Kingdom to attend the University of Oxford for a couple of years.
Of course there is certainly no guarantee that Rolle will even win a scholarship since only 32 students from across the country are chosen each year. Nevertheless the NFL Draft hasn't seen many prospects facing this situation and even fewer who were as highly-rated as Rolle is, although Chad Pennington was a finalist back in 1999. From a football perspective the 6-2, 218 lb. Rolle is built like a linebacker and runs like a safety and with a strong 2008 campaign he could put himself in the first round mix. Some feel Rolle hasn't quite lived up to the immense hype, which is probably true to a certain degree, and is overrated as a pro prospect but even most of his detractors will admit that he's still a legitimate second or third round possibility. The real question is will a team be willing to invest such a premium draft choice on him if there is a possibility he might delay the start of his pro football career for a year or two?
This will certainly be an interesting situation to watch develop over the coming months and we should know whether or not Rolle was chosen as a recipient of one of the scholarships by late November at the latest. If he wins his draft stock will become clouded. Regardless of that outcome it truly is an honor just to be nominated and I think it's fairly safe to assume that this impressive young man is destined to be very successful in whatever he chooses to do in life.
So will he come to be known as Pro Bowler Myron Rolle or Dr. Rolle?
Knowing this guy don't be surprised if the answer is both.
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