You will often hear NFL fans and draftniks say they hope their team waits until the second or third round to draft a quarterback because taking one in the first round is just too risky. There is no denying that selecting a quarterback early in the draft is a dangerous proposition and with the way contracts for top ten picks have been spiraling out of control the financial ramifications just make it all that more daunting. However, with great risk also comes great reward. The first round waters are treacherous when it comes to signal callers but history has shown that waiting to address the game's most crucial position probably isn’t such a good idea either.

   Below you will find a list of every quarterback taken in either the second or third round of the NFL Draft for fifteen years, from 1992-2006. I chose not to include the fifteen signal callers taken in that same range the past three years because it is still too early to make a judgment about many of their careers one way or another.

   As you can see there were a total of 31 quarterbacks taken in either the second or third round from 1992-2006. There were some who started quite a few games and had varying degrees of success (i.e. Kordell Stewart, Jake Plummer, Brian Griese) while others have managed to bounce around the league for a long time (i.e. Todd Collins, Charlie Batch, Josh McCown) but overall the group leaves a lot to be desired. In fact, Drew Brees is the only one who developed into a great quarterback for the team that drafted him and he was the 32nd overall pick, which would be a first rounder today. Also, Brees was so disappointing his first few years that the Chargers moved on and used a Top 5 on Philip Rivers before he hit his stride.

   That is 1 out of 31, which equates to about a 3% success rate.

   Granted the jury is still out on Matt Schaub but thus far he has been a bit of a disappointment in Houston and let’s just say that the odds aren’t in his favor.

   Sure for every Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer there are probably three or four Ryan Leaf’s, Tim Couch’s or David Carr’s but wouldn’t you rather at least roll the dice on the 20% chance that you’ll get an elite, franchise signal caller you can build a team around instead of someone who in a best-case scenario might only be Jake Plummer?

   Some might say the best course of action is to wait until the mid or late rounds to select a passer and one could cite plenty of examples to support that theory since almost a dozen of the league’s current starting quarterbacks were chosen beyond the third round, or in some cases not even drafted at all. However, only a few of those guys are actually playing for the team that originally drafted or signed them so while it’s true you may be able to find a future starting quarterback late in the draft it will most likely be for someone else. Guys like Tom Brady and Tony Romo are the extremely rare exceptions, certainly not the rule.

   Perhaps Kevin Kolb, Trent Edwards, Brian Brohm or Chad Henne will buck the odds and become above average starting quarterbacks in the NFL over the next few years but even if that happens the success rate for signal callers selected in the second or third round is still going to be abysmal. The bottom line is that it’s a crapshoot to take a quarterback in the first round but recent history has shown us that it doesn’t get any easier to find one later on and if you do opt to wait chances are you’ll get what you pay for. Sure you might waste a high draft pick and a ton of money on the next Akili Smith but at least the potential for finding the next Donovan McNabb is there as well. That just isn’t the case in round two or three.

   There are no sure things when it comes to the NFL Draft and that is especially true when it comes to first round quarterbacks, at least until the next generation of Manning’s come along. However, you have to be in it to win it and simply avoiding the top quarterback prospects because you’re afraid to make a mistake is no way to run a team either. There will always be a high degree of risk associated with first round signal callers but if you want a stud passer the best course of action is to just take the plunge and hope you wind up with Ben Roethlisberger and not Alex Smith.

   Or you could just wait a couple of decades for Archie Manning’s grandkids…