PDA

View Full Version : the curse of 400= LJ decline?


bored of education
08-28-2007, 01:08 PM
Larry Johnson’s workload last year has doomed his career, according to those cynical bastards that have no clue what kind of wear his tires have. Being quick to use the 400 carry barrier as number to allow yourself to conclude such misgivings is premature.

Jamal Anderson, Eric Dickerson and some nobody previously had over 400 attempts in a season, then apparently fell of the face of the earth. Jamal Anderson was well on his way to a great career before hitting that repugnant number of 400 in 1998. After that season Anderson accumulated 973 carries at the pro level, and in college spent three years a starting running back. His career tragically ended after tearing his ACL, which has yet been proven to have any correlation with the amount of carries he had. Robert Edwards career was not full of season of 300 carries or more.

The career which must be examined even closer is that of Eric Dickerson. A workhorse of the 80’s. In his 1st four years (83-86) he amassed 55 rushing TDs and 6968 rushing yards on 1465 carries. His carry out put those 1st four years was 390, 379, 292, 404. An average of 366.25 a year. The question that remains ‘did the 404 carries cause his career to fall off a cliff?’ Look at the stats, first thing you will notice he had 3 more years of over 1,000 yards rushing after a strike shortened season in 1987. His average numbers those next three seasons 308 carries, 1327 yards. Far from abysmal. To evaluate the rest of his career may or may not have any coincidences with his breaking the 400 carry barrier in 1986.


How can you go onto say that just because he reached 400+ carries means his career is on the decline.?!.?

bored of education
08-28-2007, 01:11 PM
Sean Alexander- 1969 attempts, injury problems
Ahmen Green- 1871 attemps, old
Travis Henry- age, 28, 1321 carries, injuries.
Rudi Johnson- age 27, 1271 carries
Jama Lewis- age 27, 1522 carries
Willis McGahee- age 25, 868 carries, injuries
Willie Parker- age 26, 624 carries
Bryan Westbrook- age 27, 736, never played a full season yet (not a bad thing)
Clinton Portis- 1385 carries, age 25, injuries



LJ- 892 carries, age 27

bored of education
08-28-2007, 01:11 PM
someone help me with WHY HE WILL DECLINE?

PackerLegend
08-28-2007, 01:16 PM
this is stupid!!! Larry Johnson has touched the ball 989 times in his first 4 years thats including receptions thats only 247.25 times a year! Now LT on the other hand has touched the ball 1654 times (in his first 4 years) including receptions thats 413.5 times a year! Thats close to the double the amount LJ has touched the ball. not to mention LT played more college years then LJ. And LT may get less touches on the ground but they throw him the ball more plus they want to increase his work load. LT touched the ball 404 times last year LJ touched it 457 times receptions included.

bored of education
08-28-2007, 01:24 PM
and including ruynning styles, the line's of all these backs. LJ's skills haven't diminshed.

Someone help me here please?

PackerLegend
08-28-2007, 01:29 PM
and including ruynning styles, the line's of all these backs. LJ's skills haven't diminshed.

Someone help me here please?

LJ's skills wont diminsh unless he suffers and injury. It may become a little bit harder on him though this year because his line is falling apart and LT's line is very good. Plus they dont have Trent Green as there QB anymore so they may rely on him even more if there backup Haurd or whatever isnt that great.

bored of education
08-28-2007, 01:35 PM
He will only get approx 14-20 carries 1st game. Then from there who ever steps up Kolby Smith, Mike Bennett or Priest Holmes will take approx. 5-9 carries a game.

The Great Jonathan Vilma
08-28-2007, 01:39 PM
uh.........good thread.

its impossible to say that he will or he won't until the season. people have talked about the 400 carries and the upright style he runs with. no one can say forsure if the trend will continue, but its possible. not forsure, but possible. i'm not sure if u need a thread to cry fowl. ur opinion is urs and people are saying he might wear down because of those carries, and thats really all there is to it. i can't see anyone saying anything u don't already know already, and neither they or u can say with certainty what the outcome will be.

bored of education
08-28-2007, 01:42 PM
thank you mr. vilma!

LonghornsLegend
08-28-2007, 03:42 PM
this is stupid!!! Larry Johnson has touched the ball 989 times in his first 4 years thats including receptions thats only 247.25 times a year! Now LT on the other hand has touched the ball 1654 times (in his first 4 years) including receptions thats 413.5 times a year! Thats close to the double the amount LJ has touched the ball. not to mention LT played more college years then LJ. And LT may get less touches on the ground but they throw him the ball more plus they want to increase his work load. LT touched the ball 404 times last year LJ touched it 457 times receptions included.

and people act as if LT is made of steel, but honestly i expect Lj to play at a higher level longer then i would LT....at some point, LT's gonna have to take a load off at some point, he wont be able to do what he's doing as far as offensive production when he is 33

umphrey
08-28-2007, 04:59 PM
I think # of carries are only one of many reasons why LJ will decline this year. He is on a declining team with a crap line and no QBs or WRs. Worse yet, the Chiefs defense isn't any better than their O so he isn't gonna get set up with good field position much and the Chiefs are going to be out of games early and often. Still more, his hold out makes him less prepared for the season and he probably isn't all there mentally either; he might not even care if he's winning games for the Chiefs.

With all that LJ has going against him this year, I would be shocked if he matched his production last year, and probably call him the best running back ever because he basically has to do everything himself.

neko4
08-28-2007, 06:07 PM
LJ's skills wont diminsh unless he suffers and injury. It may become a little bit harder on him though this year because his line is falling apart and LT's line is very good. Plus they dont have Trent Green as there QB anymore so they may rely on him even more if there backup Haurd or whatever isnt that great.

My point exactly, and if LT can stay good then why cant LJ. The only reason he might do bad is because of no help, not because his skills deminshed. Call me in 2-3 years then we can talk about how bad he'll do.

neko4
08-28-2007, 06:08 PM
I think # of carries are only one of many reasons why LJ will decline this year. He is on a declining team with a crap line and no QBs or WRs. Worse yet, the Chiefs defense isn't any better than their O so he isn't gonna get set up with good field position much and the Chiefs are going to be out of games early and often. Still more, his hold out makes him less prepared for the season and he probably isn't all there mentally either; he might not even care if he's winning games for the Chiefs.

With all that LJ has going against him this year, I would be shocked if he matched his production last year, and probably call him the best running back ever because he basically has to do everything himself.

which is what LT used to have to do...
In '02 LT had around 450 touches and the next year he had close to 410

kmartin575
08-28-2007, 06:12 PM
I think # of carries are only one of many reasons why LJ will decline this year. He is on a declining team with a crap line and no QBs or WRs. Worse yet, the Chiefs defense isn't any better than their O so he isn't gonna get set up with good field position much and the Chiefs are going to be out of games early and often. Still more, his hold out makes him less prepared for the season and he probably isn't all there mentally either; he might not even care if he's winning games for the Chiefs.

With all that LJ has going against him this year, I would be shocked if he matched his production last year, and probably call him the best running back ever because he basically has to do everything himself.

That is where you are wrong and don't know what your talking about. The Chiefs defense is much better than the O.

He isn't going to care if he's winning games for the Chiefs? Where do you come up with this crap?

I guess you will just have to see when the Packers come to Arrowhead. Brett Favre has never beaten the Chiefs and I expect that streak to continue.

Ewing
08-28-2007, 06:18 PM
Here's a post I made a few weeks ago:

Everyone who has carried the ball 370 or more times in a season didn't do well the following. Let's start with the most recent...

Shaun Alexander 2006: 370 carries, 1880 yards, 5.1 AVG
Shaun Alexander 2007: 252 carries, 896 yards, 3.6 AVG

Curtis Martin 2005: 371 carries, 1697 yards, 4.6 AVG
Curtis Martin 2006: 220 carries, 735 yards, 3.3 AVG

Jamal Lewis 2003: 387 carries, 2066 yards, 5.3 AVG
Jamal Lewis 2004: 235 carries, 1006 yards, 4.3 AVG

Ricky Williams 2002: 383 carries, 1853 yards, 4.8 AVG
Ricky Williams 2003: 392 carries, 1372 yards, 3.5 AVG

Edgerrin James 2000: 387 carries, 1709 yards, 4.4 AVG
Edgerrin James 2001: 151 carries, 662 yards, 4.4 AVG

Jamal Anderson 1998: 410 carries, 1846 yards, 4.5 AVG
Jamal Anderson 1999: 19 carries, 59 yards, 3.1 AVG

Terrell Davis 1998: 392 carries, 2008 yards, 5.1 AVG
Terrell Davis 1999: 67 carries, 211 yards, 3.1 AVG

As you can see when someone carries the load 370+ times in a year the following year they either get hurt or their production drops off.

neko4
08-28-2007, 06:26 PM
ladanian tomlinson:
2002: 372 1683 4.5 (plus 79 catches)
2003: 313 1645 5.3 (plus 100 catches)

Shiver
08-28-2007, 06:27 PM
I'd like to add that the Running Backs who have long careers typically have a lot of their touches coming as receivers, statistics have shown. There is a vast difference between the wear and tear on Running Backs' whose accumulative touches are over 400 and Johnson who had 416 carries. Being hit by a LB/D-Lineman or either getting hit by a DB or going out of bounds makes a huge difference.

Shiver
08-28-2007, 06:29 PM
ladanian tomlinson:
2002: 372 1683 4.5 (plus 79 catches)
2003: 313 1645 5.3 (plus 100 catches)

Tomlinson is a once in a generation player, (my father's generation it was Walter Payton, before him it was Jim Brown) I think it's safe to say if there is any player who can be an exception to the rule it is him.

DChess
08-28-2007, 07:00 PM
thats why i stayed away from him in fantasy drafts, i just cant get it out of my mind that he carried the ball 400 times last year, and how much that takes on somebodys body. i would rather have a young back like addai or gore who wont be relied on as much, and both have better o-lines. also i wouldnt even touch Alexander in the first. i dont think he will be a very productive back, too much tred on the tires, plus the injuries, no thank you

Brodeur
08-28-2007, 07:08 PM
Here's a post I made a few weeks ago:

Everyone who has carried the ball 370 or more times in a season didn't do well the following. Let's start with the most recent...

Shaun Alexander 2006: 370 carries, 1880 yards, 5.1 AVG
Shaun Alexander 2007: 252 carries, 896 yards, 3.6 AVG

Curtis Martin 2005: 371 carries, 1697 yards, 4.6 AVG
Curtis Martin 2006: 220 carries, 735 yards, 3.3 AVG

Jamal Lewis 2003: 387 carries, 2066 yards, 5.3 AVG
Jamal Lewis 2004: 235 carries, 1006 yards, 4.3 AVG

Ricky Williams 2002: 383 carries, 1853 yards, 4.8 AVG
Ricky Williams 2003: 392 carries, 1372 yards, 3.5 AVG

Edgerrin James 2000: 387 carries, 1709 yards, 4.4 AVG
Edgerrin James 2001: 151 carries, 662 yards, 4.4 AVG

Jamal Anderson 1998: 410 carries, 1846 yards, 4.5 AVG
Jamal Anderson 1999: 19 carries, 59 yards, 3.1 AVG

Terrell Davis 1998: 392 carries, 2008 yards, 5.1 AVG
Terrell Davis 1999: 67 carries, 211 yards, 3.1 AVG

As you can see when someone carries the load 370+ times in a year the following year they either get hurt or their production drops off.

You are forgetting Eric Dickerson's numerous seasons of 370+ carries in the 80's.

nobodyinparticular
08-28-2007, 07:14 PM
You are forgetting Eric Dickerson's numerous seasons of 370+ carries in the 80's.

And Dickerson had only 5 16 game seasons in the NFL and a total of 4 seasons over 325 carries.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/DickEr00.htm

Take a look at that career and you'll see that he wasn't exactly the stalwart of iron you are making him out to be.

Bobo
08-28-2007, 07:16 PM
Jamal Anderson, Eric Dickerson and some nobody previously had over 400 attempts in a season, then apparently fell of the face of the earth.

Some nobody = Eddie George lol

Brodeur
08-28-2007, 07:24 PM
And Dickerson had only 5 16 game seasons in the NFL and a total of 4 seasons over 325 carries.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/DickEr00.htm

Take a look at that career and you'll see that he wasn't exactly the stalwart of iron you are making him out to be.

He missed 7 games in his first 7 years in the league. It's not like he missed much time in his prime, plus he had Barry Redden behind him (who was drafted in the 1st round by the Rams just a year before Dickerson) that took touches away from him until 1987, so I'd still call him an iron horse until he hit 30.

nobodyinparticular
08-28-2007, 07:26 PM
He missed 7 games in his first 7 years in the league. It's not like he missed much time in his prime, plus he had Barry Redden behind him (who was drafted in the 1st round by the Rams just a year before Dickerson) that took touches away from him until 1987, so I'd still call him an iron horse until he hit 30.

He missed 22 games in his first 7 years.

Brodeur
08-28-2007, 07:29 PM
He missed 22 games in his first 7 years.

You're looking at the year of 1987 as 2 years.

nobodyinparticular
08-28-2007, 07:30 PM
You're looking at the year of 1987 as 2 years.

Aha. Got it.

Shiver
08-28-2007, 07:34 PM
You are forgetting Eric Dickerson's numerous seasons of 370+ carries in the 80's.

He isn't saying that those are the only times Running Backs have 370+ carries. Quite often it does have a negative effect.

JK17
08-28-2007, 09:42 PM
Why does every conversation about LJ getting broken down due to carries always come back to LT...

The two players aren't the same, they have completely different running styles, and as much as their is the issue about LJ's carries, there is more of an issue with the hits he has to take, that LT has managed to avoid.

It's also not the only reason LJ might fall of this year. Chiefs fans, for the most part, continue to say that he hasnt taken too many carries, but they are ignoring that not only is the O-Line weakend, but there is no stable prescence at quarterback. If LJ slows down this year, I say its more likely because of that, and the beating on his body and legs would catch up wtih him in a year or two.

kmartin575
08-28-2007, 11:43 PM
Why does every conversation about LJ getting broken down due to carries always come back to LT...

The two players aren't the same, they have completely different running styles, and as much as their is the issue about LJ's carries, there is more of an issue with the hits he has to take, that LT has managed to avoid.

It's also not the only reason LJ might fall of this year. Chiefs fans, for the most part, continue to say that he hasnt taken too many carries, but they are ignoring that not only is the O-Line weakend, but there is no stable prescence at quarterback. If LJ slows down this year, I say its more likely because of that, and the beating on his body and legs would catch up wtih him in a year or two.

The offensive line sucked last year and there was no stable presence at QB last year. LJ still had 1,700+ yards.

Xenos
08-29-2007, 12:15 AM
and people act as if LT is made of steel, but honestly i expect Lj to play at a higher level longer then i would LT....at some point, LT's gonna have to take a load off at some point, he wont be able to do what he's doing as far as offensive production when he is 33

LT isn't made of steel, but he also doesn't run in that punishing style like LJ does. He knows when to try to push for a first down and when to get pushed out of bounds. Plus, having Turner and a good offensive line will help his longevity. Once Turner is gone, we have some promising backups to continue the role of giving LT a breather.

energizerbunny
08-29-2007, 12:30 AM
Why does every conversation about LJ getting broken down due to carries always come back to LT...

The two players aren't the same, they have completely different running styles, and as much as their is the issue about LJ's carries, there is more of an issue with the hits he has to take, that LT has managed to avoid.

It's also not the only reason LJ might fall of this year. Chiefs fans, for the most part, continue to say that he hasnt taken too many carries, but they are ignoring that not only is the O-Line weakend, but there is no stable prescence at quarterback. If LJ slows down this year, I say its more likely because of that, and the beating on his body and legs would catch up wtih him in a year or two.

QFT, LT some how manages to avoid the big contact other backs seem to get. Many times i've seen LT step out of bounds after he feels he cannot get any more yards. It'd be interesting to see how many times LT actaully got tackled in those 400+ touch seasons.


LJ on the other hand is always fighting and trying to bowl defenders over for extra yards. Which takes a much greatest toal on the human body.

kmartin575
08-29-2007, 06:41 PM
QFT, LT some how manages to avoid the big contact other backs seem to get. Many times i've seen LT step out of bounds after he feels he cannot get any more yards. It'd be interesting to see how many times LT actaully got tackled in those 400+ touch seasons.


LJ on the other hand is always fighting and trying to bowl defenders over for extra yards. Which takes a much greatest toal on the human body.

LJ NEVER, and I mean NEVER takes big hits. He gives out more hits than he receives.

I really don't understand this myth that LJ takes alot of damage. The guy has pretty much never been injured. He has his head almost ripped off by a blatant and unsportsmanlike facemask by Antrell Rolle and he still played a week later. LT is not made of steel, but LJ is.

Average OT LB
08-29-2007, 06:42 PM
LJ NEVER, and I mean NEVER takes big hits. He gives out more hits than he receives.

I really don't understand this myth that LJ takes alot of damage. The guy has pretty much never been injured. He has his head almost ripped off by a blatant and unsportsmanlike facemask by Antrell Rolle and he still played a week later. LT is not made of steel, but LJ is.

giving hits and playing through pain is probably what everyone is talking about... you know.. the myth

JK17
08-29-2007, 07:14 PM
LJ NEVER, and I mean NEVER takes big hits. He gives out more hits than he receives.

I really don't understand this myth that LJ takes alot of damage. The guy has pretty much never been injured. He has his head almost ripped off by a blatant and unsportsmanlike facemask by Antrell Rolle and he still played a week later. LT is not made of steel, but LJ is.

Yeah, well according to you, there's also nothing wrong with the Chiefs so take it for what its worth. When they're 16-0 this year I'll give you credit for it....:roll:

kmartin575
08-29-2007, 10:13 PM
Yeah, well according to you, there's also nothing wrong with the Chiefs so take it for what its worth. When they're 16-0 this year I'll give you credit for it....:roll:

I never said that. Or, If I did, it was a while back. I expect the Chiefs to have a losing season.

But that's fine by me. We need a high draft pick to help us reload. Jake Long, Sam Baker, or Barry Richardson in the first round along with the 9 or 10 other draft picks we have are really going to help improve our team next year.

energizerbunny
08-29-2007, 11:01 PM
LJ NEVER, and I mean NEVER takes big hits. He gives out more hits than he receives.

I really don't understand this myth that LJ takes alot of damage. The guy has pretty much never been injured. He has his head almost ripped off by a blatant and unsportsmanlike facemask by Antrell Rolle and he still played a week later. LT is not made of steel, but LJ is.



trust me, in terms of damage to your body the only difference between giving hits and taking them is you know its comming. Those are still 350+ collisions he's endured within a season. The biggest thing about taking that much punishment is how you rebound after the game, a younger player will start feeling better around tuesday or wednesday while a player who is a little bit older may not recover from the previous game until Saturday or Sunday if at all. That continued wear affects performance, take it that for what its worth.

With LJs high level of fitness he may be able to delay the process a year or two, I hope he proves us wrong but history shows otherwise.