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Geo
08-28-2007, 11:06 PM
Ten NFL Truths

10. Green Bay Packers GM Ted Thompson is quietly but surely building one of the best defenses in the NFC. I’m not sold on the Packers making the playoffs though. Their schedule doesn’t look good for them at all, and I would be wary about Al Harris and Charles Woodson staying healthy for all 16 games - with little in the way of depth behind them. The offense doesn’t have a running game to take the ball out of Brett Favre’s hands, which means too much is on him and the career interceptions record is impending. Opponents know they just have to put their best corner on Donald Driver or double him. Mike McCarthy isn’t anything special as a head coach or offensive mind, let’s be real. Despite a superb front seven that includes the best starting LB core in the league, I think a tough year awaits the Pack in 2007 though the future is bright afterwards.

9. Champ Bailey will not repeat his career season of 2006. Everything went right for Bailey last year - being healthy, breaking down film, having great practices, being tested, making great decisions, footballs and bounces going his way, etcetera - but Bailey won’t repeat one of the best seasons we’ve seen from a cornerback in the last decade for a consecutive year.

8. The two most exciting teams will be the Arizona Cardinals and the Cincinnati Bengals. Both teams have offenses that can score on anybody and both have defenses that can’t stop anybody. The Bengals and Cardinals will do a respectable job against the run, but neither can generate a pass rush to help protect porous young secondaries. Russ Grimm is the best addition the Cardinals made this past off-season, given the improvement he will engineer in the offensive line that will benefit both the running game and the passing game - where the Cardinals have stellar skill position players. Both teams could make a run at the wild card in their respective conferences, and I surprisingly favor Cincinnati in that regard despite playing in the superior AFC.

7. The NFC South is intriguing.

a. The New Orleans Saints team looks like a great pick to be the first repeat division champ since realignment in 2002. The Saints have one of the best offenses in football helmed by Sean Payton, Drew Brees, and Reggie Bush, and while the defense overachieved last year, the additions they made in the offseason help alleviate their woes (though not solve them). Don’t overlook the acquisition of Olindo Mare, kicking indoors should help his accuracy and should only help his great kickoff capability. Although the Jacksonville Jaguars will bully the Saints in Week 9, look at the Saints’ schedule thereafter: versus St. Louis, at Houston, at Carolina, Tampa Bay, at Atlanta (Monday), Arizona, Philadelphia, @ Chicago. Excellent matchups and dome games abound except for the season finale at Soldier Field, but it’s likely the Bears will have locked up their seeding by then and will sit their starters for a considerable amount of time (as was the case last year), benefiting the Saints a great deal. If the Saints are to travel to Solder Field in the postseason however, that is not a game they will win.

b. On the other hand, any other team in the division can put together a great year and manage to win the division crown. Too much was made about Jeff Garcia this offseason, but he definitely gives the Bucs a semblance of a competent quarterback that they haven’t had in a good while. With an improved offensive line, that means Cadillac Williams will have the chance to succeed and the offense can move the chains after the abortion of a season in 2006. Still not sold on the defense, however.

c. The Atlanta Falcons could put together a regular season like the Saints last year, IF they can create and execute great gameplans, overachieve defensively, stay healthy, and have balls bounce their way as the 2006 Saints did. It is possible, but not likely. Joey Harrington has received a worse rap than he should, in fact I’ve liked the guy and for what it’s worth now he has the best offensive line and overall receiving core yet in his career; not to mention he’s a better fit for Bobby Petrino’s offense, a system which props up quarterbacks better than they actually are. But the Falcons desperately need the front four to put together career years in disruption and effectiveness, because of how poor that secondary currently is. If new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer dares to blitz, he should hope that the pressure reaches the quarterback else the coverage (or lack thereof) will further be exposed. When the best defensive back in coverage on the roster is horribly overrated twerp DeAngelo Hall, trepidation is assuredly nigh.

6. With regards the Denver Broncos, I would hold on drinking the Colorado Kool-Aid. Coach Teflon made big changes this past off-season in hopes of improving both the offense and the defense, including the hire of Jim Bates as the Broncos’ defensive coordinator which is a great move. Although it will take time for the defense to fully implement his defense as envisioned, especially the young players the team recently drafted who the Broncos need making plays as soon as possible. The offensive line is old and not what it once was, some of the changes to the defensive line are more cosmetic than anything, and the team as a whole could be faster. Not only do I not expect the Broncos to be the AFC favorite they were made out to be in the offseason, in the wake of their acquisitions, I also think it’s very possible that they miss out on the tournament for a consecutive year.

5. Expect to see the passing of the torch and the dawn of new eras at the quarterback position this year.

a. The Browns’ long-overdue franchise quarterback Brady Quinn will take the reins after the Week 6 home contest against the Dolphins, as the team enters their Week 7 bye. Quinn returned for his senior year of college ball and was overanalyzed and unfairly criticized, as is the ridiculous case nowadays, but he’s by far the best quarterback on the Browns roster. Moreover, head coach Romeo Crennel needs his offense to score as many points as possible given a porous defense that isn’t stout up front or in the back, plus starting Quinn also gives him his best chance at another year. Bill Cowher‘s name may come up, but he will be announced as the Washington Redskins‘ new head coach less than a year from now.

b. The perennially underachieving Carolina Panthers will bench Jake Delhomme for the superior quarterback in David Carr, most likely in time of their road trip to Tennessee in Week 9, in hopes of turning the season around and making the playoffs. You can’t ever accuse Delhomme of not caring, but reality is, he’s not a good enough passer to make up for his gunslinging mistakes nor is he efficient enough to competently manage the game. As much as any starting quarterback in the league, Delhomme needs a strong running game to carry him and mask his faults, but the Panthers lack that as they have for the last few years. To be fair to Delhomme, the offensive line even when healthy could be much better and there isn’t a legitimate receiving option (who isn’t a runningback) not named Steve Smith. I don’t expect much at all from Dwayne Jarrett in the pros.

c. The aforementioned Green Bay Packers finally begin the Aaron Rodgers era, as the young signal caller will take over by the team’s Week 14 home contest against the Oakland Raiders. (That is, of course, if Brett Favre stays healthy by then. It’s not a definite.) Favre will continue his compiling ways of the last number of years and break the records - and I’d emphatically point out the career interceptions record in tandem with the other records - but with the Pack out of playoff contention and the franchise moving on, Rodgers takes over and won’t look too bad doing it in the final quarter of the season.

d. Two situations not mentioned are the Kansas City Chiefs and the New York Jets. I’ve never been a big fan of Brodie Croyle and think talk of him as a franchise quarterback is wishful thinking; Damon Huard by far gives a rebuilding Chiefs team their best chance to win. Thus, Croyle will sit on the bench for most of the 2007 season. As for the Jets, I’ve been equally convinced that Kellen Clemens is undoubtedly the best quarterback prospect on the roster since he was drafted, but Chad Pennington is an experienced veteran who will likely hold him off for 2007. The Jets won’t fluke their way into the playoffs this season, as they did in 2006, and the stage will be set in the offseason for Clemens to take the starting role.

4. Too much is being made about the roster turnover the Colts have incurred this offseason. Quite honestly, it is more of a story made for story’s sake. The Colts have been amongst the most active and successful teams of the last 5 years in roster turnover, in fact. In every case, the team has an extremely talented and younger player ready to play in place of the departed or injured player, and with exception to Tony Ugoh and Ed Johnson have upgraded from before. Statistically the run defense will improve (hah) and the pass defense will worsen, but the defense itself that the Colts will field is actually better than a year ago. The team still has the best offense in all of football, thanks to Peyton Manning who is the engine to it all. The challenging 2006 regular season schedule helped prepare the Colts for the postseason, whereas the opposite was true in 2005, and the 2007 regular season schedule looks to do the same. Most notably, the challenging stretch after the Week 6 bye: at Jacksonville (Monday), at Carolina, New England, at San Diego, Kansas City, at Atlanta (Thursday/Thanksgiving), Jacksonville, and at Baltimore in Week 14.

3. Don’t overlook homefield advantage for the playoffs. Come January there isn’t a team in the league that can beat the Bill Belichick-led New England Patriots in Foxboro, regardless of the overrated addition of Randy Moss, but the Indianapolis Colts can potentially wear down anyone in a 60-minute span if they can secure playoff matchups in the RCA Dome for one last postseason. As for the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Washington Redskins have the best chance of beating the Chicago Bears on Soldier Field.

2. The San Diego Chargers aren‘t as good as they were last season. The Chargers have the best offensive line, the best runningback, and the best tight end in all of football, which translates to regular success. Yet the receiving core leaves far too much to be desired, which cripples the team come the postseason when they have to make tough third down conversions. The Chargers pass rush will regress some from the phenomenal 2006 season, allowing the secondary to be exposed for what it truly is - as was the case in 2004 and 2005. The loss of Donnie Edwards may not look much on paper, but he was by far the best pass coverage linebacker on the team and replacing him with an unproven player further hurts the defense’s third down efficiency nevermind sorely needed veteran leadership in the linebacker core. And most importantly, the team has replaced Marty Schottenheimer with a horrible head coach in Norv Turner, a greater liability come the postseason and the biggest reason why the number of penalties the Chargers will commit this season will increase. The Chargers will win their division by virtue of being the best team by a healthy margin and featuring great talent, but the team will continue their early postseason ineptitude come January.

1. Scoring won’t go down this season. Touched on earlier in a few cases, don’t expect overall scoring to decrease thanks to the lacking secondaries and the pass-rushing capabilities being fielded across the league, despite the league-wide state of quarterbacks also being poor. Teams like the Houston Texans feature a superb player like Dunta Robinson who is better than the rest of the secondary combined, and the front seven while solid can‘t generate a consistent pass rush to save its life. Whether because talent is being diluted across 32 teams, rules that favor the offense in some spots, and/or other factors, scoreboards will be lighting up just as much if not more so (which is likely I think).

Shiver
08-28-2007, 11:09 PM
I got to hand it to you. Me and BBD agree way too much, finally something I can disagree with! I have to do something right now so I will get around to a true reply soon enough.

neko4
08-28-2007, 11:17 PM
I partially agree with 10
I do agree with 5a and 5b, but too bench Favre is like smacking the pope, plus week 14 GB should still be in the hunt.
On another note a reason for so many of Favre's INTs is all the passes (especially the last 2 years) that hes had to throw, 2nd all-time in att's, 1st in comp's.

PalmerToCJ
08-28-2007, 11:18 PM
I love these threads. The Bengals Dline has actually been very effective at generating a pass rush this preseason (Ahmad Brooks is a very good blitzer as well). With out 11 sacks we're 2nd in the preseason. Getting Johnathan Joseph back is a big help in the secondary.

PACKmanN
08-28-2007, 11:20 PM
Ok if you think our gm is building an great defense in the NFC whats with the negatives in the post? no depth. We are not going to be a top 5 defense but I wouldn't rule out top 10.

Geo
08-29-2007, 12:22 AM
Looking forward to it, Shiv. I like that you and BBD talked up the Redskins, which I did two months or so ago in my NFC East write-up and said that they would make the playoffs as a wild card team.

The Packers talk ruffled some feathers, I see. As for them being in the hunt around Week 14, 3-9 or 4-8 isn't in the hunt in my eyes. As for the point about no depth at cornerback: Harris (who was a Top 5 CB in 2006) and Woodson were one of the best corner tandems last season, and more importantly, their man coverage ability helps mask the pass coverage deficiencies of the Packers safeties. If Green Bay loses either one, they are in trouble. And as much as I like the front seven of the Packers, they will wear down thanks to time of possession and big plays given up by the aforementioned secondary.

About the Bengals pass defense: their ends are better suited for the run than the pass, and their talented young corners (I like both) are gaining valuable experience. Good for them for putting up sacks in the preseason, although I'm left wondering how many are valid in terms of consideration, but we'll see come the regular season, I suppose.

It just occured to me that I forgot to mention a major point I meant to address in this write-up. Hmm.

Boston
08-29-2007, 12:39 AM
Looking forward to it, Shiv. I like that you and BBD talked up the Redskins, which I did two months or so ago in my NFC East write-up and said that they would make the playoffs as a wild card team.

The Packers talk ruffled some feathers, I see. As for them being in the hunt around Week 14, 3-9 or 4-8 isn't in the hunt in my eyes. As for the point about no depth at cornerback: Harris (who was a Top 5 CB in 2006) and Woodson were one of the best corner tandems last season, and more importantly, their man coverage ability helps mask the pass coverage deficiencies of the Packers safeties. If Green Bay loses either one, they are in trouble. And as much as I like the front seven of the Packers, they will wear down thanks to time of possession and big plays given up by the aforementioned secondary.

About the Bengals pass defense: their ends are better suited for the run than the pass, and their talented young corners (I like both) are gaining valuable experience. Good for them for putting up sacks in the preseason, although I'm left wondering how many are valid in terms of consideration, but we'll see come the regular season, I suppose.

It just occured to me that I forgot to mention a major point I meant to address in this write-up. Hmm.

3-9, 4-8? I don't really agree with any of this post. Having a .500 record by week 14 isn't a crazy idea at all. With basically the same young team from last year having gotten one year older, it isn't crazy to say we've improved from last year. Our schedule, though it isn't as easy as last year, shouldn't be much of a problem this year. I agree with the fact that the safeties cause problems in pass coverage, but Nick Collins is a good, young FS with speed, and Manuel, who was a big problem last year, has been replaced by Bigby. The front seven wearing down made me laugh.

Geo
08-29-2007, 01:38 AM
I can't disagree enough with the schedule "shouldn't be much of a problem this year" for the Green Bay Packers.

Quite honestly, I'll be surprised if the Packers are better than 1-5 going into their Week 7 bye. Their first six oppponents: Philly, at NY Giants, San Diego, at Minny, Chicago, and Washington. They play better at home, but consider the opponents involved.

Weeks 8 through 13: at Denver (Monday Night Football), at Kansas City, Minny, Carolina, at Detroit (Thursday/Thanksgiving), and at Dallas (Thursday). That's 4 tough (for the Packers) road games in less than 6 full weeks.

Something to consider about the Packers, that I had in one of my initial drafts of this write-up: they were +9 in turnovers in their eight wins and -9 in turnovers in their eight losses last season.

PACKmanN
08-29-2007, 01:55 AM
Philly- Finally we are at home, they lost there man in the middle and we could have an easy running day. If we stop Westbrook we have a shot at winning this game
NY Giants- If we lose this game, I will never again think that this team has a shoot at the playoffs this year. We get tested vs the pass and we are more able to send in a blitz vs a weak oline.
San Diego- I don't except a win, I would like a fight till the end.
Minny- Minny has some rebuilding to do in the offense and our defense might take over that game.
Chicago- I hope Grossman has a pretty or thinking of going to a pretty during this game
Washington- Manny might think this game should be our win but I don't think it will, Portis, Moss, Bettis, Cooley, Llyod, Randell. I hope our defense is up for the challenge.

We could be a 5-1 team or a 4-3 team.

Boston
08-29-2007, 03:15 AM
I can't disagree enough with the schedule "shouldn't be much of a problem this year" for the Green Bay Packers.

Quite honestly, I'll be surprised if the Packers are better than 1-5 going into their Week 7 bye. Their first six oppponents: Philly, at NY Giants, San Diego, at Minny, Chicago, and Washington. They play better at home, but consider the opponents involved.

Weeks 8 through 13: at Denver (Monday Night Football), at Kansas City, Minny, Carolina, at Detroit (Thursday/Thanksgiving), and at Dallas (Thursday). That's 4 tough (for the Packers) road games in less than 6 full weeks.

Something to consider about the Packers, that I had in one of my initial drafts of this write-up: they were +9 in turnovers in their eight wins and -9 in turnovers in their eight losses last season.

Let me rephrase that. Everybody is making the Packers out to be a 3-13, 4-12 team this year due to the overwhelming schedule we have. But when you look at it, it's not that bad. Sure there's a couple, 1 or 2, games that we really have no chance of winning, but other than that, we have a good chance in every other game we play. I think the Packers will surprise people this year. That is, if we establish a legitimate running game.

BlindSite
08-29-2007, 04:07 AM
Man you could've avoided wasting a lot of typing time and just posted.

PANTEHRS SUKC

For a start, Delhomme's stats were down last year for a couple of reasons.
a) The Panthers were missing our left tackle
b) The Panthers were missing the starting centre
c) The Panthers missed Steve Smith for 2 games
d) Jake Delhomme had a hand injury and missed three games

You're talking about a team here missing two key cogs for an entire year on the offensive line. Despite that the running game managed just over 1400 yards for the season, which isn't good at all, but not altogether disheartening since we had an inept offensive coordinator who's since been fired.

So lets look at the cause of Delhomme's failures:
Poor pass protection
Poor Running game
injuries
Poor play calling

Pass protection, all healthy on the offensive line and two fold improvements with the addition of Ryan Kalil, the best centre prospect in the draft and the return of two starting players.

Poor running game, experience now added to DeAngelo williams, better play calling, zone blocking system, which suits both the linemen and backs better

Injuries, he's now healthy

Play Calling, Jeff Davidson has now come to carolina and has overhauled the running game and how he's getting receivers involved.


AS for the comments about the saints. You mentioned the Panthers as an easy target, in case you missed the last few matchups, maybe you should check history.

Besides which we're geared to stop them. Strong defensive line for good pressure and a stout run defense.

Fast, tackling linebackers who've been drafted for their coverage ability.

Stable nickel cornerbacks.

The only negative on the Panthers defense is that we've got a weak safety spot.

Don't count the team out, because you can't do your research before you write.

Caddy
08-29-2007, 08:11 AM
I honestly can't see the Cardinals being one of the most exciting teams in the NFL. Sure Fitzy and Boldin are great, and Leinart is maturing, the line is going to deny them offensive excitement. Maybe in a year or 2.

Geo
08-29-2007, 10:25 AM
I'm saying that the Carolina Panthers are a better team with David Carr as the starting QB, and that the sooner they install Carr as the quarterback, the better their playoff chances. I didn't call for them to finish with the worst record in the league and the first overall pick. In fact, I consider(ed) them to make a run at the division crown as I hinted at in my bit about the NFC South (although I didn't mention them specifically there).

Delhomme is stuck between gunslinger and game manager but can't do either well, and ultimately it's holding the team back. They don't have a mauling offensive line and a power back as they did a few years ago, they need to move the chains and wear opponents down so DeShaun Foster and Deangelo Williams can slice and dice in the second halves of games. If the Panthers want to build a passing game with a bunch of servicable roster guys and Steve Smith, than they need a more efficient and accurate quarterback who can spread the ball around.

I'm not sold that the offensive line will automatically turn into one of the league's elite units now that they are healthy, given the schematic change they are trying to enact (ZBS). There will be some struggles in the first half of the season, but the line might come together and likely play better in the second half.

The Panthers have one of the best front fours in the league, and the only team that I can recall that has spent a 1st round picks on all of their starting LBs: Dan Morgan, Thomas Davis, and Jon Beason. I don't like them replacing Rod Perry with Tim Lewis as their defensive backs coach at all (though as a Colts fan I'm ecstatic they could replace Leslie Frazier with Rod Perry), and as you noted the staring safety duo of Chris Harris and Deke Cooper (?) leaves the most to be desired of that defensive unit. Hence why I think their front four needs to be as disruptive as possible else the pass defense might give up some plays throughtout the year.

Notice how I never once said that John Fox would be fired in my write-up. Personally I think he should, but he won't - even if the Panthers fall just short of the playoffs.

scottyboy
08-29-2007, 10:34 AM
Philly- Finally we are at home, they lost there man in the middle and we could have an easy running day. If we stop Westbrook we have a shot at winning this game
NY Giants- If we lose this game, I will never again think that this team has a shoot at the playoffs this year. We get tested vs the pass and we are more able to send in a blitz vs a weak oline.
San Diego- I don't except a win, I would like a fight till the end.
Minny- Minny has some rebuilding to do in the offense and our defense might take over that game.
Chicago- I hope Grossman has a pretty or thinking of going to a pretty during this game
Washington- Manny might think this game should be our win but I don't think it will, Portis, Moss, Bettis, Cooley, Llyod, Randell. I hope our defense is up for the challenge.

We could be a 5-1 team or a 4-3 team.

the Giants have a weak Oline? this is news to me...

KILLERSANTA
08-29-2007, 10:41 AM
the Giants have a weak Oline? this is news to me...

Maybe he means LT......

scottyboy
08-29-2007, 10:44 AM
Maybe he means LT......

once again, this is news to me. they're weak at LG, but not LT...

but this isnt a GIants discussion at all....

i agree that the Pack do have a good D. their DL is strong and deep. I love Hawk and Barnett, but think they could do a little better than popinga

Sniper
08-29-2007, 10:54 AM
Philly- Finally we are at home, they lost there man in the middle and we could have an easy running day. If we stop Westbrook we have a shot at winning this game





Please. Trotter sucked last year and was probably headed for worse. I think our D will be vastly improved with Gaither who is much quicker and faster and Spikes on the outside. Helps you guys don't have a running back, and Gunslinger will be chucking into triple coverage, which isn't good because our secondary is damn good. Don't bet the bank on stopping Westbrook, he's going to get the ball 20-25 times and few teams can stop him with that many touches.

PalmerToCJ
08-29-2007, 11:40 AM
About the Bengals pass defense: their ends are better suited for the run than the pass, and their talented young corners (I like both) are gaining valuable experience. Good for them for putting up sacks in the preseason, although I'm left wondering how many are valid in terms of consideration, but we'll see come the regular season, I suppose.

It just occured to me that I forgot to mention a major point I meant to address in this write-up. Hmm.

In terms of the ones that matter our starting UT John Thornton had two last week, Ahmad Brooks has one and several hurries, Madieu Williams/Justin Smith/Domata Peko all are starters and have one vs. starting Olines. I've been very impressed with our pass rush this preseason.

I'm not here to say our pass D will be better (although it would be hard not to), I think it'll be rough in the first half but come around in the second half because of our youth at the position. I'm confident our run D (which was 15th best last year) will improve and our pass rush will be better, it's just a matter of the secondary playing together.

neko4
08-29-2007, 11:56 AM
Looking forward to it, Shiv. I like that you and BBD talked up the Redskins, which I did two months or so ago in my NFC East write-up and said that they would make the playoffs as a wild card team.

The Packers talk ruffled some feathers, I see. As for them being in the hunt around Week 14, 3-9 or 4-8 isn't in the hunt in my eyes. As for the point about no depth at cornerback: Harris (who was a Top 5 CB in 2006) and Woodson were one of the best corner tandems last season, and more importantly, their man coverage ability helps mask the pass coverage deficiencies of the Packers safeties. If Green Bay loses either one, they are in trouble. And as much as I like the front seven of the Packers, they will wear down thanks to time of possession and big plays given up by the aforementioned secondary.


Our front seven rivals chicago's in both depth and ability. It isnt as good but its very close behind.

neko4
08-29-2007, 11:58 AM
Please. Trotter sucked last year and was probably headed for worse. I think our D will be vastly improved with Gaither who is much quicker and faster and Spikes on the outside. Helps you guys don't have a running back, and Gunslinger will be chucking into triple coverage, which isn't good because our secondary is damn good. Don't bet the bank on stopping Westbrook, he's going to get the ball 20-25 times and few teams can stop him with that many touches.

Trotter was definitly getting old, but the packers D is much better than when they last faced Westbrook.

MichaelJordanEberle (sabf)
08-29-2007, 11:59 AM
I think the Broncos will make the playoffs(possibly win the division, but only if San Diego falters), but probably not make it past the second round, at best. Our defense just doesn't look good enough so far. Our offense, if Henry is healthy, should be good enough to get us 10-11 wins if our defense is just slightly above average.

neko4
08-29-2007, 12:09 PM
I can't disagree enough with the schedule "shouldn't be much of a problem this year" for the Green Bay Packers.

Quite honestly, I'll be surprised if the Packers are better than 1-5 going into their Week 7 bye. Their first six oppponents: Philly, at NY Giants, San Diego, at Minny, Chicago, and Washington. They play better at home, but consider the opponents involved.

Weeks 8 through 13: at Denver (Monday Night Football), at Kansas City, Minny, Carolina, at Detroit (Thursday/Thanksgiving), and at Dallas (Thursday). That's 4 tough (for the Packers) road games in less than 6 full weeks.

Something to consider about the Packers, that I had in one of my initial drafts of this write-up: they were +9 in turnovers in their eight wins and -9 in turnovers in their eight losses last season.

NY Giants- Unless Brandon Jacobs turns into the messiah we should win easily.

Philly- This will be a very very very close.

Denver- We should have trouble with

KC- If we stop LJ we win, that is a tough task but that is what must be done.

Minny- Their secondary is a pin cushion and they wont be able to throw at all. Yes i know they have AD and Taylor, but Taylor has had 35 carries for 1259(3.5) in the two times he played us. So shuting down Taylor can be done and we'll have to see about AD.

Carolina- This will be a close one, but i think we can pull it out.

Detroit- How are they considered tough? All we have to do is control the pass. We have a great DL who would who would easily dominate their OL. Plus no defense in detroit.

San Diego- We'll probably lose

Washington- If we can rattle Campbell we can win, but they do have a very good duo in Portis/Betts (who i think is superior to AD/Taylor) so it will be close. Offensivly we have a chance of starting the running game.

Geo
08-29-2007, 12:23 PM
The Broncos probably did overpay for Travis Henry and Dan Graham, but they are trying to surround young Jay Cutler with experience, productive players. There is some concern that Henry has played only one full 16-game season in his career (2002), but he also played a 15-game season as the Bills workhorse back (touching the ball 350+ times again) the next season. I tend to think he'll be okay for the next two years at least, and Mike Bell is actually quicker so he might not be that much of a drop-off rushing-wise, but maybe it's something to keep an eye on.

Defensively, I thought the hiring of Jim Bates was an excellent move by Shanny. It just remains to be how soon the defense will improve, and when players like Jarvis Moss and Marcus Thomas can contribute. The sooner the better for the Broncos, Sam Adams isn't going to add much and Jimmy Kennedy even less so. Bailey and Bly are certainly among the league's best CB tandems.

Geo
08-29-2007, 12:46 PM
figures that you'd pretty thoroughly hate on the broncos. i know it's just bitterness from last season when i correctly predicted the colts defensive let-down. =P
Oh, I was being nice. Heh.

If the Broncos miss out on the playoffs, it won't be by much. They've assembled the pieces but it remains to be seen if they will gel in time to reap the benefits this season. Javon Walker and Champ Bailey almost single-handedly took them to the playoffs last year, maybe they can do it again.

it's interesting that you think david carr is the better quarterback on the panther's roster. i'm not sure there's any real evidence to support that. his adjusted yards/attempt were bad at best (half a yard worse than delhomme - http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=264) and i'm not sure you can make a strong argument that delhomme had significantly better offensive weapons/offensive play-calling to account for that.
Carr isn't perfect, but to me he gives the Panthers their best chance at success. Especially when every other division rival will either blitz or play some form of a Cover 2 to protect their secondaries, if Delhomme is back there than expect forced fumbles/sacks and continued third down inefficiency. Plus Carr has better mobility out of the pocket, which the Panthers offense could definitely use.

also interesting. what makes you think that cowher would a) be a good fit for the skins and b) be capable of co-existing with snyder (especially if snyder starts returning shanahan's phone calls again)?
The Redskins have already won the bidding war for Cowher, it's a good roster and a great franchise in general that he's inheriting, and he gets to coach in the NFC leaving his time/legacy in Pittsburgh intact. And Snyder, or anyone else in the NFC, should never take calls from Shanny again! ;)

i'm also unconvinced that 9 is a strong prediction (it would be difficult to allow ~6 catches on the season two straight years), but i don't see any reason to believe he can't do it. our defensive line couldn't be worse than it was last year. it would be difficult for john lynch to be slower than he was and still be capable of suiting up for a game and nick ferguson belonged on a high school field last year, too. i'm not sure there's much environmentally that would affect (positively or negatively) bailey's potential to repeat that season.
I think it's asking for too much, quite honestly. It was a superb year, a career year, and there will be some natural drop-off (Bailey will still be among the league's best, if not the best, as long as he stays healthy). I recall hearing Eric Allen talk about Bailey last year, saying how everything was going right for him and it was all coming together perfectly. I suppose it's similar to the offensive players who have had record-breaking years we've seen in the last five years.

bigbluedefense
08-29-2007, 02:43 PM
You went out on a limb here. Like to see that :)

I agree about the packers, theyre slowly building a defensive unit that will be very good in a couple of years. Im not a fan of KGB, but Kappman is solid, they have a great LB core, and are a safety and possibly DE away from being solid throughout the defense.


I also think that the Colts losses are exaggerated (outside of Glenn). They had a great draft, and their losses on defense weren't as big as people think. They will suffer a little bit because of the losses, but its not the end of the world.

Good thread.

Shiver
08-29-2007, 02:50 PM
I will reply with my points of contention.

Ten NFL Truths

10. Green Bay Packers GM Ted Thompson is quietly but surely building one of the best defenses in the NFC. I’m not sold on the Packers making the playoffs though. Their schedule doesn’t look good for them at all, and I would be wary about Al Harris and Charles Woodson staying healthy for all 16 games - with little in the way of depth behind them. The offense doesn’t have a running game to take the ball out of Brett Favre’s hands, which means too much is on him and the career interceptions record is impending. Opponents know they just have to put their best corner on Donald Driver or double him. Mike McCarthy isn’t anything special as a head coach or offensive mind, let’s be real. Despite a superb front seven that includes the best starting LB core in the league, I think a tough year awaits the Pack in 2007 though the future is bright afterwards.

I was this close to using this in my "Truths" thread. What stopped me? I love the Packers' front seven, but I have concerns regarding their secondary. Prior to last season everyone thought Charles Woodson was done. His resurgence was impressive, but I can't feel that maybe it was an aberration from a very up-n-down player. Al Harris has stayed remarkably productive, he is probably the best press corner in the league. Yet he is nearing the age of 34, just how long will he be able to stay productive at a high level? Corners at his age, when they fall off, they fall off hard and fast.

7. The NFC South is intriguing.

b. On the other hand, any other team in the division can put together a great year and manage to win the division crown. Too much was made about Jeff Garcia this offseason, but he definitely gives the Bucs a semblance of a competent quarterback that they haven’t had in a good while. With an improved offensive line, that means Cadillac Williams will have the chance to succeed and the offense can move the chains after the abortion of a season in 2006. Still not sold on the defense, however.

I personally anticipate Jeff Garcia performing like the Cleveland/Detroit QB, not the pro-bowl QB for the 49ers/Eagles. Cadillac Williams has a lot to prove. I remember when he came out I had questions about his durability and those concerns have been verified. Joey Galloway is aging and is still an injury risk. If he goes down, who steps up in his place?

c. The Atlanta Falcons could put together a regular season like the Saints last year, IF they can create and execute great gameplans, overachieve defensively, stay healthy, and have balls bounce their way as the 2006 Saints did. It is possible, but not likely. Joey Harrington has received a worse rap than he should, in fact I’ve liked the guy and for what it’s worth now he has the best offensive line and overall receiving core yet in his career; not to mention he’s a better fit for Bobby Petrino’s offense, a system which props up quarterbacks better than they actually are. But the Falcons desperately need the front four to put together career years in disruption and effectiveness, because of how poor that secondary currently is. If new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer dares to blitz, he should hope that the pressure reaches the quarterback else the coverage (or lack thereof) will further be exposed. When the best defensive back in coverage on the roster is horribly overrated twerp DeAngelo Hall, trepidation is assuredly nigh.

I agree with this take a lot. DeAngelo Hall is maddening to watch, he's like Michael Vick was on offense. He has all the potential to be great but ruins it with poor fundamentals, weak mental game and overall inconsistency. I am hoping that he will eventually become the player he should be and has flashed the ability to be. He is still only 23 and Mike Zimmer has an incredible resume regarding DBs, so I still have hope. That performance in the pre-season was certainly not what I wanted to see. That being said, according to metrics he is the same player as Chris Gamble. They are too aggressive, try too hard to make plays (although they do get high interception numbers) and get burned because of it. If Gamble made the Pro-Bowl like Hall does, then Gamble would be overrated.

6. With regards the Denver Broncos, I would hold on drinking the Colorado Kool-Aid. Coach Teflon made big changes this past off-season in hopes of improving both the offense and the defense, including the hire of Jim Bates as the Broncos’ defensive coordinator which is a great move. Although it will take time for the defense to fully implement his defense as envisioned, especially the young players the team recently drafted who the Broncos need making plays as soon as possible. The offensive line is old and not what it once was, some of the changes to the defensive line are more cosmetic than anything, and the team as a whole could be faster. Not only do I not expect the Broncos to be the AFC favorite they were made out to be in the offseason, in the wake of their acquisitions, I also think it’s very possible that they miss out on the tournament for a consecutive year.

I know I definitely do not agree on this. I think the Broncos will surpass the Chargers as the best team in the AFC West. The O-Line is old, no doubt, but I think that as long as the scheme stays intact, they will be effective. You don't need top notch talent in a Z.B.S, which is why they can plug in players and not see a cataclysmic failure on the offense. Daniel Graham made Matt Light look great last year, ask any Patriots fan, his addition won't show in in the box score but will have an impact on the team's success. Travis Henry is perfect for the running system, unlike Tatum Bell who never panned out. Javon Walker will only be stronger with another year removed from that ACL tear. Anyone can read my article and see what I think about Jay Cutler.

On defense, I believe they have certainly become better. They have added a lot of bodies on the D-Line. They do not need magnificent play from any one player, they have the rotation that will make the difference for that defense. Dre' Bly will be like a new man now that he's escaped the Tampa-2 scheme. He will certainly be an upgrade over what the Broncos have had opposite Champ Bailey.

5. Expect to see the passing of the torch and the dawn of new eras at the quarterback position this year.

b. The perennially underachieving Carolina Panthers will bench Jake Delhomme for the superior quarterback in David Carr, most likely in time of their road trip to Tennessee in Week 9, in hopes of turning the season around and making the playoffs. You can’t ever accuse Delhomme of not caring, but reality is, he’s not a good enough passer to make up for his gunslinging mistakes nor is he efficient enough to competently manage the game. As much as any starting quarterback in the league, Delhomme needs a strong running game to carry him and mask his faults, but the Panthers lack that as they have for the last few years. To be fair to Delhomme, the offensive line even when healthy could be much better and there isn’t a legitimate receiving option (who isn’t a runningback) not named Steve Smith. I don’t expect much at all from Dwayne Jarrett in the pros.

If they think David Carr is "superior" to Jake Delhomme, John Fox needs to be fired on the spot. Although I agree that Jake Delhomme is definitely not the answer for the Panthers and they will go no where with him 'leading' the team, I cannot agree that Carr is any better. I think he has been the worst starting QB in the NFL for a while now. David Carr's inability to show leadership, deliver strikes down the field, make quick decisions are the reason he failed and the reason the O-Line looked so porous all these years. I think Matt Schaub will come in and will expose Carr for what he was. Just like when Romo came in he wasn't being sacked like Bledsoe was because he could actually make quick decisions and get rid of the ball.

I will let video evidence back up my stance: LINK (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMd3FdudDH0)

c. The aforementioned Green Bay Packers finally begin the Aaron Rodgers era, as the young signal caller will take over by the team’s Week 14 home contest against the Oakland Raiders. (That is, of course, if Brett Favre stays healthy by then. It’s not a definite.) Favre will continue his compiling ways of the last number of years and break the records - and I’d emphatically point out the career interceptions record in tandem with the other records - but with the Pack out of playoff contention and the franchise moving on, Rodgers takes over and won’t look too bad doing it in the final quarter of the season.

I have never been a fan of Rodgers, I would live to mention. That being said I think they should put him in if they are out of it, I just don't think that is realistic. This will be Favre's last season and McCarthy would be committing coach suicide if he benched him, period. Those fans would never forgive him. They could care less if Rodgers was supposed to be "the QB of the future" or not.

d. Two situations not mentioned are the Kansas City Chiefs and the New York Jets. I’ve never been a big fan of Brodie Croyle and think talk of him as a franchise quarterback is wishful thinking; Damon Huard by far gives a rebuilding Chiefs team their best chance to win. Thus, Croyle will sit on the bench for most of the 2007 season. As for the Jets, I’ve been equally convinced that Kellen Clemens is undoubtedly the best quarterback prospect on the roster since he was drafted, but Chad Pennington is an experienced veteran who will likely hold him off for 2007. The Jets won’t fluke their way into the playoffs this season, as they did in 2006, and the stage will be set in the offseason for Clemens to take the starting role.

I agree completely with both. It's amazing just how many people agree that it's when Kellen Clemens plays this year, not if he plays.

4. Too much is being made about the roster turnover the Colts have incurred this offseason. Quite honestly, it is more of a story made for story’s sake. The Colts have been amongst the most active and successful teams of the last 5 years in roster turnover, in fact. In every case, the team has an extremely talented and younger player ready to play in place of the departed or injured player, and with exception to Tony Ugoh and Ed Johnson have upgraded from before. Statistically the run defense will improve (hah) and the pass defense will worsen, but the defense itself that the Colts will field is actually better than a year ago. The team still has the best offense in all of football, thanks to Peyton Manning who is the engine to it all. The challenging 2006 regular season schedule helped prepare the Colts for the postseason, whereas the opposite was true in 2005, and the 2007 regular season schedule looks to do the same. Most notably, the challenging stretch after the Week 6 bye: at Jacksonville (Monday), at Carolina, New England, at San Diego, Kansas City, at Atlanta (Thursday/Thanksgiving), Jacksonville, and at Baltimore in Week 14.

You really think having Tony Ugoh replacing the Colts' "best lineman" (thanks Peyton) is being overblown? He would have to have a season on par with Marcus McNeil to make that the case. Even D'Brickashaw Ferguson gave up 10 sacks last year as a rookie, it's just very hard to instantly transition into that role. As seen when mediocre DE, Kalimba Edwards sacked Peyton Manning in the pre-season game. The Colts' O-Line wasn't even that good before, they were held together by strong play from Glenn and Saturday and good schemes. Without Glenn, Peyton will have the worst protection he's ever seen as a pro and I have to say that will cause a negative cascade on the entire team.

Dominic Rhodes was invaluable in last year's Super Bowl run, culminating in the actual Super Bowl. He caught passes and softened up defenses for Addai to take advantage. Now Addai is thrust into the feature back role, with only DeDe Dorsey to spell him. Joseph Addai's biggest flaw coming out of LSU was his injury concerns and the fact that he was always in a platoon situation. That's why he had so much success in tandem with Rhodes last season. Can he be like Edgerrin James? Maybe, but it's to soon to make a call on that one.

The addition of Anthony "Booger" McFarland, along with the return of Bob Sanders, is what helped that defense transform before our eyes. Now he is gone. He isn't special, sure, but he's solid. Now you have a bunch of rookies, late round and undrafted ones at that, who have to man that critical NT position. Don't expect much to change for the Colts run defense. They will be back to the level of 150+ yards per game on the ground at 5 YPC and the offense will struggle to see the field, again.

neko4
08-29-2007, 03:02 PM
You went out on a limb here. Like to see that :)

I agree about the packers, theyre slowly building a defensive unit that will be very good in a couple of years. Im not a fan of KGB, but Kappman is solid, they have a great LB core, and are a safety and possibly DE away from being solid throughout the defense.


I also think that the Colts losses are exaggerated (outside of Glenn). They had a great draft, and their losses on defense weren't as big as people think. They will suffer a little bit because of the losses, but its not the end of the world.

Good thread.

We have Cullen Jenkins at DE, and KGB comes in on passing sit. Cullen played very well last year and had somewhat of a breakout season.

BlindSite
08-29-2007, 03:36 PM
I'm saying that the Carolina Panthers are a better team with David Carr as the starting QB, and that the sooner they install Carr as the quarterback, the better their playoff chances. I didn't call for them to finish with the worst record in the league and the first overall pick. In fact, I consider(ed) them to make a run at the division crown as I hinted at in my bit about the NFC South (although I didn't mention them specifically there).

You said "turn it around" by week nine as if the team is going to be useless up until then. When the team has been healthy 03, 05 and hopefully in 07 Delhomme has been a great leader and has taken the team deep into the playoffs, in fact his passer rating is the highest amongst active QBs in the postseason.

David Carr is one of my favourite players and I was the first on the SING CARR bandwagon, but I don't want him as our starter yet. He's not ready.


Delhomme is stuck between gunslinger and game manager but can't do either well, and ultimately it's holding the team back. They don't have a mauling offensive line and a power back as they did a few years ago, they need to move the chains and wear opponents down so DeShaun Foster and Deangelo Williams can slice and dice in the second halves of games. If the Panthers want to build a passing game with a bunch of servicable roster guys and Steve Smith, than they need a more efficient and accurate quarterback who can spread the ball around.
Part of that was because of the offensive playbook. Dan Hennings calls were awful. I mean that in the harshest possible terms. He called draw plays on third and long, he tried to keep the mauling system and crashing running when we had Foster and a lighter, faster, smaller offensive line.

That has now been changed. A ZBS will suit our backs and our linemen perfectly, hopefully if it all goes well we'll see the running game Delhomme needs. Add in a tight end who can catch, at least three receivers who can make up for the lack of a second and Smith he should be able to score enough points to help the defense win games. With the defense the panthers have (top ten for the last two years) the Panthers don't need to be the Colts on offense.


I'm not sold that the offensive line will automatically turn into one of the league's elite units now that they are healthy, given the schematic change they are trying to enact (ZBS). There will be some struggles in the first half of the season, but the line might come together and likely play better in the second half.

I have never said they'll be elite, what I said was they'll be good, as in above average, which I think they will be. Kalil and Gross are the only two with no experience in the system. Kalil may only start two games before bridges comes back and Gross is a pretty good lineman in his own right. So if a right tackle is the only cog that has trouble I'm not too worried.

Besides, even if the line does have some growing pains, look at the first 8 opponents....


The Panthers have one of the best front fours in the league, and the only team that I can recall that has spent a 1st round picks on all of their starting LBs: Dan Morgan, Thomas Davis, and Jon Beason. I don't like them replacing Rod Perry with Tim Lewis as their defensive backs coach at all (though as a Colts fan I'm ecstatic they could replace Leslie Frazier with Rod Perry), and as you noted the staring safety duo of Chris Harris and Deke Cooper (?) leaves the most to be desired of that defensive unit. Hence why I think their front four needs to be as disruptive as possible else the pass defense might give up some plays throughtout the year.

You're saying one safety spot is going to cause the downfall of 10 others I dunno about that one.

Notice how I never once said that John Fox would be fired in my write-up. Personally I think he should, but he won't - even if the Panthers fall just short of the playoffs.

Why fire one of the best head coaches in the NFL?

Geo
08-29-2007, 10:49 PM
You really think having Tony Ugoh replacing the Colts' "best lineman" (thanks Peyton) is being overblown? He would have to have a season on par with Marcus McNeil to make that the case. Even D'Brickashaw Ferguson gave up 10 sacks last year as a rookie, it's just very hard to instantly transition into that role. As seen when mediocre DE, Kalimba Edwards sacked Peyton Manning in the pre-season game. The Colts' O-Line wasn't even that good before, they were held together by strong play from Glenn and Saturday and good schemes. Without Glenn, Peyton will have the worst protection he's ever seen as a pro and I have to say that will cause a negative cascade on the entire team.
I just don't think the drop-off will be that great, to be perfectly honest. That's not to discount Glenn, who I thought should have gone to the Pro Bowl more years than he did (but didn't thanks to Jonathan Ogden living off the reputation of his earlier years). More a vote of confidence in Tony Ugoh, the quarterback he's playing with, the system and offense he's coming into, the veterans in the offensive line around him, and most especially the benefit of OL coach Howard Mudd's tutelage. Ugoh has the physical skills and the athletic ability, the onus now is to refine technique and make Jeff Saturday's line calls second nature.

Really, the Colts OL don't have to hold their blocks that long thanks to Peyton, and as Ugoh refines his technique he'll do a better job of turning his defender outside like Glenn did - we've already seen this begin this preseason. Ugoh has learned from his mistakes and played better the next week. If memory serves correct, veteran right tackle Ryan Diem has given up more sacks than Ugoh actually. Although he's not where he will be strength-wise coming into the league as a rookie, Ugoh is a good run blocker thanks to the years spent in Huston Nutt's offense at Arkansas.

The Colts under Bill Polian and Coach Dungy have done a very good job of grooming their first round picks, and while Ugoh may be starting a year earlier than originally envisioned when the Colts traded their 2008 1st round pick and one of their 2007 4th round picks to obtain him, I really think Ugoh is walking into a situation where he is much more likely to succeed than fail (much like Marcus McNeil last year as you noted).

Note: Glenn missed 6 games in the 2003 season thanks to injury, not playing in Weeks 6, 8, 10, 11, 12, and 13. Per Football Outsiders' metrics/analysis, the average Offense DVOA in those 6 games was 17.4%, compared to the season average Offense DVOA of 17.3%. Last season the Colts gave up no Coverage Sacks and had the fewest number of passes marked Hit in Motion. The synergy of the offense can't be stated enough, with Manning, Harrison, Wayne, and so on. Again, Manning is the key to it all.

Dominic Rhodes was invaluable in last year's Super Bowl run, culminating in the actual Super Bowl. He caught passes and softened up defenses for Addai to take advantage.
The last impression is the greatest, I see. For about 5/6 of a 24-game season, start to finish, the biggest contribution Dom Rhodes made was spelling Joseph Addai and helping the rookie stay as fresh as possible for the season and the postseason especially. Rhodes was better running North-South and sometimes in the red zone, but the Colts ran the stretch play anyways which didn't suit Rhodes well most of the time and Addai scored in the end zone himself.

The postseason success Rhodes exhibited was thanks mainly to Addai starting the games, which allowed a fresh Rhodes to enter and take advantage of (slightly) worn defenses - especially in the second-halves of games. Credit to him for his tough running in that capacity, and not fumbling the ball as much as he did in the regular season (every carry was an adventure, believe me). But Addai was and is undoubtedly the best back on the roster, especially on pass protection, and there's no way the Colts would have paid Rhodes $8M over 2 years like the Raiders.

Now Addai is thrust into the feature back role, with only DeDe Dorsey to spell him. Joseph Addai's biggest flaw coming out of LSU was his injury concerns and the fact that he was always in a platoon situation. That's why he had so much success in tandem with Rhodes last season. Can he be like Edgerrin James? Maybe, but it's to soon to make a call on that one.
Addai's touches will go up, but don't put much stock in fantasy analysts pegging him for 300-plus carries. The Colts aren't stupid, they can see for themselves how much better their running game was in the postseason - playing against the Chiefs, Ravens, Patriots, and Bears defenses - when they had runningbacks with fresher legs as opposed to a workhorse who touched the ball around 400 times. Whether it's speedy DeDe Dorsey or CFL veteran Kenton Keith (who reminds me of Rhodes), the Colts will make sure a second back gets some touches to spell the young Addai.

The addition of Anthony "Booger" McFarland, along with the return of Bob Sanders, is what helped that defense transform before our eyes. Now he is gone. He isn't special, sure, but he's solid. Now you have a bunch of rookies, late round and undrafted ones at that, who have to man that critical NT position. Don't expect much to change for the Colts run defense. They will be back to the level of 150+ yards per game on the ground at 5 YPC and the offense will struggle to see the field, again.
I think you'll be surprised. The run defense won't be as bad, by virtue of the personnel on the field - despite Bogger's absence. So many of the big runs last year where thanks to blown assignments and broken tackles. The run defense won't be elite, but 4.5 ypc is much more likely than 5.0 ypc. Watch.

Of course, the greater matter is the defense overall and its efficiency on third downs. I'm more concerned in that area than the run defense, although not giving up so many yards rushing on first and second down certainly help the chances of getting off the field after third down.

neko4
08-29-2007, 10:52 PM
I was this close to using this in my "Truths" thread. What stopped me? I love the Packers' front seven, but I have concerns regarding their secondary. Prior to last season everyone thought Charles Woodson was done. His resurgence was impressive, but I can't feel that maybe it was an aberration from a very up-n-down player. Al Harris has stayed remarkably productive, he is probably the best press corner in the league. Yet he is nearing the age of 34, just how long will he be able to stay productive at a high level? Corners at his age, when they fall off, they fall off hard and fast.


Al is 31, 3 years from 34(if you can do math), so I wouldnt worry about him this year, and hopefully we'll get a top CB in the draft

Shiver
08-29-2007, 10:59 PM
Al is 31, 3 years from 34(if you can do math), so I wouldnt worry about him this year, and hopefully we'll get a top CB in the draft

Neither of us were right. Al Harris is 32 now and will be in December. Either way, it's still very old for a cover corner.

Shiver
08-29-2007, 11:01 PM
Geo, that was a good read. I think we will agree to disagree and we shall see as things turn out. I've been wrong before, but then again I am sure you have been too.

Geo
08-29-2007, 11:31 PM
Oh, agreed. My prediction last year that Baltimore would finish with a Top 5 pick and Blowhard Billick would get canned was awesome. :p

neko4
08-29-2007, 11:38 PM
Neither of us were right. Al Harris is 32 now and will be in December. Either way, it's still very old for a cover corner.

I was closer :)
But anyway, he has one good year left IMO, so my point is we should go out and get a top a top rated college CB this draft

princefielder28
08-29-2007, 11:38 PM
You went out on a limb here. Like to see that :)

I agree about the packers, theyre slowly building a defensive unit that will be very good in a couple of years. Im not a fan of KGB, but Kappman is solid, they have a great LB core, and are a safety and possibly DE away from being solid throughout the defense.




The DE they have found is Cullen Jenkins and he is a beast, but I do agree the Packers need a solid safety next to Collins before they enter the top tier

Boston
08-30-2007, 12:18 AM
The DE they have found is Cullen Jenkins and he is a beast, but I do agree the Packers need a solid safety next to Collins before they enter the top tier

I'm hoping Bigby will adapt to starting and playing in the NFL. Collins plus Bigby would be an amazing combo.

Sniper
08-30-2007, 01:05 AM
Trotter was definitly getting old, but the packers D is much better than when they last faced Westbrook.

Unfortunately for the Packers Westbrook is also better and Reid actually remembers he has a do it all RB.

Boston
08-30-2007, 01:27 AM
Unfortunately for the Packers Westbrook is also better and Reid actually remembers he has a do it all RB.

Of course he is. So is Brett Favre.

neko4
08-30-2007, 01:28 AM
Unfortunately for the Packers Westbrook is also better and Reid actually remembers he has a do it all RB.

We have a very strong DT rotation that allows them to stay fresh, so he wont be able to easily run it inside. With AJ flying around and the progress made by Kampman and Cullen at DE, running to the outside will be tough too. So they'll have to rely heavily on Donovan and the WR's. Reggie Brown(e?) will have a tough time against our CB's, so if the Eagles are to win they'll have to look for LJ Shelton to have a big game, and Westbrook catching the ball. This is gonna be a good defensive battle.

Sniper
08-30-2007, 01:41 AM
We have a very strong DT rotation that allows them to stay fresh, so he wont be able to easily run it inside. With AJ flying around and the progress made by Kampman and Cullen at DE, running to the outside will be tough too. So they'll have to rely heavily on Donovan and the WR's. Reggie Brown(e?) will have a tough time against our CB's, so if the Eagles are to win they'll have to look for LJ Shelton to have a big game, and Westbrook catching the ball. This is gonna be a good defensive battle.

LJ Smith, Reggie Brown. I'm not all that worried about Green Bay's line because I'd put our O-line in the top 2 in the league. Westbrook makes big plays, and he's going to make some in this game. That and GB hasn't fared well lately vs. Philly. 27-14 Philly

Boston
08-30-2007, 01:43 AM
LJ Smith, Reggie Brown. I'm not all that worried about Green Bay's line because I'd put our O-line in the top 2 in the league. Westbrook makes big plays, and he's going to make some in this game. That and GB hasn't fared well lately vs. Philly. 27-14 Philly

Don't get confident, by any means. I love how you brought up a game from 2 years ago to assist your arguement.

Shiver
08-30-2007, 01:44 AM
Yikes, trash talking already? I can't wait to start some mess with Vikings fans!

Sniper
08-30-2007, 01:55 AM
Don't get confident, by any means. I love how you brought up a game from 2 years ago to assist your arguement.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=261002021
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=251127021
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=241205021
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=231110009
http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=240111021

I'm sorry, were you saying something?

neko4
08-30-2007, 01:59 AM
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=261002021
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=251127021
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=241205021
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=231110009
http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=240111021

I'm sorry, were you saying something?

I really dont care what happened in the past, its a new season.

And top2 thats a little high dont ya think?

Sniper
08-30-2007, 02:16 AM
I really dont care what happened in the past, its a new season.

And top2 thats a little high dont ya think?

I'd say the same thing if my argument got **** on like his did...

Nope, I don't think it's too high. Other than the Chargers, who's got a better O-line?

Boston
08-30-2007, 02:19 AM
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=261002021
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=251127021
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=241205021
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=231110009
http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=240111021

I'm sorry, were you saying something?

Yes, I was, and apparently you didn't catch a word of it. Do you even have any idea how different this team from teams of the past three or four years? I would hope you know how much different the Eagles are. If you want to give youself false hope because of games that happened 2-3 years ago, go ahead.

Sniper
08-30-2007, 02:24 AM
Yes, I was, and apparently you didn't catch a word of it. Do you even have any idea how different this team from teams of the past three or four years? I would hope you know how much different the Eagles are. If you want to give youself false hope because of games that happened 2-3 years ago, go ahead.

I said the Packers have not had success against Philly lately. You said " I love how you use one game two years ago". I point out 5-6 games in a row and all of a sudden it's "blah blah blah the teams are different" Really? The teams are different? NO WAY! Recently, the Eagles have had the Packers' number, like it or not.

Boston
08-30-2007, 02:28 AM
I said the Packers have not had success against Philly lately. You said " I love how you use one game two years ago". I point out 5-6 games in a row and all of a sudden it's "blah blah blah the teams are different" Really? The teams are different? NO WAY! Recently, the Eagles have had the Packers' number, like it or not.

For the Packers, I'm not talking about one or two starters different. I'm basically talking the entire team. If I could just find the damn article.... It says something to the extent of having like 15/21 new starters since like 04 or 05.

And also, like I said, the Eagles aren't as good as they were a couple years ago.

Sniper
08-30-2007, 02:32 AM
For the Packers, I'm not talking about one or two starters different. I'm basically talking the entire team. If I could just find the damn article.... It says something to the extent of having like 15/21 new starters since like 04 or 05.

And also, like I said, the Eagles aren't as good as they were a couple years ago.

They're about the same as they were a couple years ago.

Boston
08-30-2007, 02:39 AM
They're about the same as they were a couple years ago.

I hope to god you don't mean personel* wise.

Average OT LB
08-30-2007, 02:43 AM
The thing about the chargers is very basic information taken at face value. I think you will be right however, but on accident. to prevent sounding like a homer, ill leave my opinions about the players out of it. I feel the chargers will win less games and lose in the playoffs because: A) they won 14 games, they cant repeat that plus they had a record setting streak of comeback wins which wont happen again B) winning in the playoffs is hard, especially in the AFC.

To say they will lose because of the WR core, to say that Donnie edwards was anything more than over rated garbage, and to say that sacks will go down for any reason other than our blitz happy coach is gone .. is an uneducated guess..

Sniper
08-30-2007, 02:44 AM
I hope to god you don't mean personel* wise.

Personnel, yes. Because if that personnel plays to its potential, they are significantly better. We actually have an OLB now. We have a consistent RB. Gaither can be better than Trotter, all the potential in the world.

Boston
08-30-2007, 02:47 AM
Personnel, yes. Because if that personnel plays to its potential, they are significantly better. We actually have an OLB now. We have a consistent RB. Gaither can be better than Trotter, all the potential in the world.

OK, good, you're talking about the Eagles.

Sniper
08-30-2007, 02:55 AM
OK, good, you're talking about the Eagles.

Yes, I am. I think the Packers have improved a lot but I still believe the Eagles are a better team.

Boston
08-30-2007, 02:56 AM
Yes, I am. I think the Packers have improved a lot but I still believe the Eagles are a better team.

Well, needless to say, I'm looking forward to that game.

BlindSite
08-30-2007, 03:18 AM
My best ever projection was that Denver would trade up to get Jay Cutler before they even had a higher first round pick.

I made that projection in I think early January.

I've also got another theory for the superbowl this year. I'm pickin' the chargers.

Sniper
08-30-2007, 03:48 AM
My best ever projection was that Denver would trade up to get Jay Cutler before they even had a higher first round pick.

I made that projection in I think early January.

I've also got another theory for the superbowl this year. I'm pickin' the chargers.

With Norv Turner? Gutsy

Average OT LB
08-30-2007, 03:57 AM
With Norv Turner? Gutsy

im a chargers fan and i dont believe in him..

awfullyquiet
08-30-2007, 04:15 AM
I think you'll be surprised. The run defense won't be as bad, by virtue of the personnel on the field - despite Bogger's absence. So many of the big runs last year where thanks to blown assignments and broken tackles. The run defense won't be elite, but 4.5 ypc is much more likely than 5.0 ypc. Watch.

Of course, the greater matter is the defense overall and its efficiency on third downs. I'm more concerned in that area than the run defense, although not giving up so many yards rushing on first and second down certainly help the chances of getting off the field after third down.

ARE YOU SERIOUS?
To think that booger caused all of these blown assignments and broken tackles? (In reality, June was just as much as fault IMO, but he's gone, so i could BARELY see your argument).

You don't just take out your stud DT and say your run defense is going to get better... It doesn't work that way. Never will. Short yardage, first, second downs, will kill the colts, wear down the mediocre defense, and cause peyton to get bored on the sidelines.

in dungy's cover-2, i'm sure you know this, you're a smart individual, but for the rest of the class, dungy's cover-2, like all cover twos, rely on the front four to dictate the pace of the defense. with just freeney commanding real respect on the line, and klecko and brock anchoring the line (klecko being a 5'11, 270lbs... dear god.)... and a trio of rather uninspring LB's not in the same league of any other cover-2 system (i'm sure they'd love to have hunter hillenmeyer). It doesn't work. They're servicable at best (Morris, Brackett, and any number of rookies they have that may be able to not completely suck). and to reach 4.5ypc they're going to have to overachieve and hope that some pansy ass RB's show up instead of their first string counterparts.

Geo
08-30-2007, 11:57 AM
Dan Klecko won't start at NT, rookie Ed Johnson will. And fellow rookie Quinn Pitcock won't be far behind.

Xenos
08-30-2007, 12:55 PM
Ten NFL Truths

2. The San Diego Chargers aren‘t as good as they were last season. The Chargers have the best offensive line, the best runningback, and the best tight end in all of football, which translates to regular success. Yet the receiving core leaves far too much to be desired, which cripples the team come the postseason when they have to make tough third down conversions. The Chargers pass rush will regress some from the phenomenal 2006 season, allowing the secondary to be exposed for what it truly is - as was the case in 2004 and 2005. The loss of Donnie Edwards may not look much on paper, but he was by far the best pass coverage linebacker on the team and replacing him with an unproven player further hurts the defense’s third down efficiency nevermind sorely needed veteran leadership in the linebacker core. And most importantly, the team has replaced Marty Schottenheimer with a horrible head coach in Norv Turner, a greater liability come the postseason and the biggest reason why the number of penalties the Chargers will commit this season will increase. The Chargers will win their division by virtue of being the best team by a healthy margin and featuring great talent, but the team will continue their early postseason ineptitude come January.

I just find your comments about Edwards interesting since people were saying how much the Cato June loss would affect your team. But you know that Freddie(he was in my Comm class at SDSU) is going to step it up. Just like I know Matt Wilhelm is going to step it up and improve on a 34 year old Edwards. Oh and Edwards wasn't a leader on the field.
Additionally, Norv isn't a postseason liability like Marty simply because he never has made it to the postseason as much as Marty so that's still a mystery. And the penalties that you mention were cut down to only 1 in the third preseason game. I suspect we'll be up and down like we were last season in terms of penalties.

Xenos
08-30-2007, 01:01 PM
With Norv Turner? Gutsy

Turner will do wonders for this offense. It's the defense that is still a mystery.

Dam8610
08-30-2007, 09:03 PM
ARE YOU SERIOUS?
To think that booger caused all of these blown assignments and broken tackles? (In reality, June was just as much as fault IMO, but he's gone, so i could BARELY see your argument).

I'm pretty sure he was saying Booger was part of the solution, not the problem, but at the same time, the Colts won't be absolutely atrocious in run defense as they were at times last year thanks to less blown assignments. I don't know how you gathered that he was blaming Booger for the run defense problems from that.

You don't just take out your stud DT and say your run defense is going to get better... It doesn't work that way. Never will. Short yardage, first, second downs, will kill the colts, wear down the mediocre defense, and cause peyton to get bored on the sidelines.

Stud DT? Thanks for the laugh. Booger was a servicable starter, nothing more, nothing less. In comparison to the other options the Colts had for most of 2006, he looked a stud, but that speaks more to the quality (or rather lack thereof) of the Colts' DT depth in 2006 than it does to McFarland's talent level.

in dungy's cover-2, i'm sure you know this, you're a smart individual, but for the rest of the class, dungy's cover-2, like all cover twos, rely on the front four to dictate the pace of the defense. with just freeney commanding real respect on the line, and klecko and brock anchoring the line (klecko being a 5'11, 270lbs... dear god.)... and a trio of rather uninspring LB's not in the same league of any other cover-2 system (i'm sure they'd love to have hunter hillenmeyer). It doesn't work. They're servicable at best (Morris, Brackett, and any number of rookies they have that may be able to not completely suck). and to reach 4.5ypc they're going to have to overachieve and hope that some pansy ass RB's show up instead of their first string counterparts.

The Opening Day starter at NT looks to be Ed Johnson, not Dan Klecko. I don't think even Ron Meeks would start 2 players who barely qualify as UTs as the opening day DTs, and Johnson has impressed throughout camp and preseason. You've also completely forgotten about Bob Sanders, whose mere presence in the lineup in this scheme is worth at least 50 yards of run defense per game in and of itself. If you don't believe that, ask Bears fans (I'm referring to Mike Brown, not the Super Bowl Bears fans).

Geo
09-16-2007, 03:28 PM
I'm disappointed I was so off the mark on the Bengals defense, two weeks into the season. :rolleyes:

BlindSite
09-17-2007, 02:14 AM
It was only 51 points .64 points every minute.

LOL, more than one tenth a point every second.

Dam8610
09-17-2007, 02:37 AM
It was only 51 points .64 points every minute.

LOL, more than one tenth a point every second.

Your math is way off here.

51/60 = .85 points per minute

.85/60 = .014 points per second

Shiver
09-17-2007, 02:44 AM
So far it looks like all of the "Truths" threads are hit and miss. Some really good calls and some 'how did this happen' ones as well.

BlindSite
09-17-2007, 03:01 AM
Your math is way off here.

51/60 = .85 points per minute

.85/60 = .014 points per second

I hit 8 instead of 6.

I need a dialing wand :(

Vince Lombardi
09-24-2007, 07:24 PM
Your Packers predictions are looking like big misses at this point. ;)

Geo
10-18-2007, 04:41 PM
My major concern for the Packers remains: Al Harris, Charles Woodson, and Brett Favre have to stay healthy for all 16 games for them to make the playoffs. I didn't/don't think it would happen, which would severely hurt the Packers chances. But so far, so good, although Harris was dinged up in Week 1 and I think I read it's been nagging him some. I howled for Harris to make the Pro Bowl last year, he was locking down opposing WR1s all year and I had him as the best corner in 2006 not named Bailey or Asomugha. He better get to the Pro Bowl this year.

I've been gushing over the Packers defense for months, well before the season started and Peter King started slobbing knobs, and even supported Ted Thompson's drafting of Justin Harrell for that purpose. He wisely ignores Favre's bitching and is building one of the best defenses in the conference to give them an chance to win the division every year.

The Packers, obviously, fared much better in the record so far than I anticipated. I was wrong there, although to be fair they completely fluked wins against the Eagles and Redskins. But they are wins nonetheless, and I was wrong there.

So far everything looks good except #5 and anything mentioning David Carr. Yikes, please disregard that.

JF4
10-18-2007, 04:50 PM
Brett Favre...injured?

I don't think that can happen.

But I understand your concerns.

Flyboy
10-18-2007, 05:00 PM
So far it looks like all of the "Truths" threads are hit and miss. Some really good calls and some 'how did this happen' ones as well.

Well, it is the NFL...

Geo
11-29-2007, 08:34 PM
Well, hmm ...

bored of education
11-29-2007, 09:10 PM
Wow, Geo. I'm impressed with some of these. Aaron Rodgers is taking over as we speak!

SuperMcGee
11-29-2007, 09:15 PM
Except that his basis for the prediction was waaaay off, and this won't be long term

Geo
11-29-2007, 09:15 PM
Yeah, it's eerie. Charles Woodson has had difficulty staying healthy before 2006, so that wasn't that big of a stretch, I guess. But I thought Favre having to air it out so much would expose him to hits, and he's not the youngest guy as we all know. Al Harris was actually dinged up in Week 1, but he's played through it like the Pro Bowl corner he is.

That said, I thought the Packers wouldn't make the playoffs if any of these three missed time, and that's obviously wrong. The Packers are definitely making the playoffs.

SAGA45
11-29-2007, 11:26 PM
Quite honestly, I'll be surprised if the Packers are better than 1-5 going into their Week 7 bye. Their first six oppponents: Philly, at NY Giants, San Diego, at Minny, Chicago, and Washington. They play better at home, but consider the opponents involved.

Weeks 8 through 13: at Denver (Monday Night Football), at Kansas City, Minny, Carolina, at Detroit (Thursday/Thanksgiving), and at Dallas (Thursday). That's 4 tough (for the Packers) road games in less than 6 full weeks.

Interesting

JT Jag
11-30-2007, 09:20 AM
Well Geo, you missed on #8... but right on almost all other counts.

ks_perfection
11-30-2007, 06:48 PM
Even if the Pack lost all there remaing games they'd still win there division. The only question is would they still get a bye, and I'd answer yes to that question.

Geo
12-31-2007, 07:31 PM
1. Scoring won’t go down this season. Touched on earlier in a few cases, don’t expect overall scoring to decrease thanks to the lacking secondaries and the pass-rushing capabilities being fielded across the league, despite the league-wide state of quarterbacks also being poor. Teams like the Houston Texans feature a superb player like Dunta Robinson who is better than the rest of the secondary combined, and the front seven while solid can‘t generate a consistent pass rush to save its life. Whether because talent is being diluted across 32 teams, rules that favor the offense in some spots, and/or other factors, scoreboards will be lighting up just as much if not more so (which is likely I think).
Per NFL Network:

11,104 points were scored this season, the most in NFL history.

Yay!

BlindSite
01-01-2008, 02:41 AM
Yeah, but a lot of that is due to the best offense ever being assembled.

neko4
01-01-2008, 02:52 AM
Seriously geo, benching Favre for Rodgers would be like impeaching Washington for Rutherford B Hayes

Boston
01-01-2008, 02:59 AM
Yeah, but a lot of that is due to the best offense ever being assembled.

You mean slightly more than 5%, right?

MichaelJordanEberle (sabf)
01-01-2008, 10:47 AM
I noticed the points thing too. I think passing games have just gone off the charts this year. 6 players have 100+ catches. The top 2 leading receivers have more yards than the leading rusher. The top two TD getting receivers have more than the leading TD rusher.

In 2006, one receiver hit the 100 catch mark. 13 was the highest receiving TD mark, 10 lower than this year, and much less than LDT's 28 on the ground. Yardage wise, the leader had 1369. That would be FIFTH this year. SIX players in 2006 had more rush yards than the first place runner this year. Last year Manning lead the league with 31 pass TDs, which would be 4th this year. In 2006, 18 QBs finished completing 60% or more of their passes. That number rose to 25 in 2007. Last year, 11 players hit the 7 yards per attempt or more. 18 achieved the feat in 07. 10 players in 06 had a QB rating of 85 or higher. 15 had one in 07.

This means either, we're seeing much better QB play league-wide, or the rules are really starting to take effect hurting DBs and making passing games almost TOO easy.

JagHombre22
01-01-2008, 10:58 AM
It wasn't the Patriots doing all of the scoring...the last nine games the Jaguars played they averaged 33.4 points per game, and they scored 50+ touchdowns...that's amazing for a defensive minded team...

Caddy
01-05-2008, 01:21 AM
Sold on the Buccaneers defense now Geo?

Geo
01-05-2008, 01:41 AM
To be brutally honest, not really ... although maybe that's my fault, for not having seen enough of the Bucs this season. I still come away thinking they need more on the defensive line, it's the lifeblood of the defensive scheme. Gaines Adams was a great pick, the step in the right direction. But I just have the feeling a good offensive line can handle their def line, and I think we'll see it this weekend with the Giants. We'll see though, I could very well be wrong.

Congrats to the Bucs for winning the division though, Jeff Garcia was a very good signing and Earnest Graham was stellar in place of injured Cadillac and Pittman. I never liked Chris Simms ever nor will I ever like him, him trying to run Gruden's offense is laughable, so it's good to see the team have a real quarterback to lead the offense that has some solid rushing.

Caddy
01-05-2008, 01:58 AM
The Buccaneers weren't dominant by any means, but were consistently good enough to post the #2 defense in the NFL.