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View Full Version : The Colts, Sleepers and Game Film


NittanyLion2k7
09-07-2007, 12:15 PM
Courtesy of Slate.com and a writer/football scientist named Aaron Schatz... I present you 3 different articles on varying subjects.

http://www.slate.com/id/2173233/entry/2173237/

(Note click the numbers at the top to see the 3 seperate articles)

The first focuses on why the Colts were such an odd Super Bowl team and why their success will never be repeated... most of us can probably come up with the reasons but when the statistics are thrown in, the scenario becomes that much more unlikely to be repeated.

The second article details on how they pick sleeper teams using a statistic called "DVOA" which breaks down every single play a team runs and compares the statistical result to the league average. Grueling and mind numbing work I'm sure but ultimately seems to hold merit.

The last article is the most interesting in my opinion. It's akin to KC Joyner who breaks down alot of game tape to dissect players. He talks about how the NFL is holding back its fans from truly appreciating the game, by not releasing game tape to the general public. He also talks about how offensive lineman and defensive players in general are neglected by the NFL's stat recorders and game tape is necessary in order to truly assess one of these player's strengths and weaknesses.

E.G. he make the claim that Dwight Freeney was still one of the best pass rushers in the league... despite only having 5.5 sacks last year.

Must reads for any NFL Fans, especially those with an eye for numbers and stats. Perhaps it won't be long before the NFL goes the way of the MLB where stats are secondary to none and the fans will get to see game tape like the Teams do...

Enjoy

niel89
09-08-2007, 03:14 AM
i do wish they would allow the public to see all of the game film. not that i would spend hours watching it but it would be very educational to break down a game on your own.

Dam8610
09-08-2007, 04:03 AM
Article #1 simply stresses the point that Bob Sanders is a VITAL cog to the Colts' defense, but says it in a different way. He's trying to point out what was wrong with the Colts' defense during the regular season, but could've saved himself a lot of writing by trimming it all down to this one part of one of his sentences:

Sanders played in only four games during the 2006 regular season...

That's it. That was the big, "magical" defensive turnaround.

Eaglez.Fan
09-08-2007, 08:13 AM
I picked up that book a couple weeks ago. Great read.

P-L
09-08-2007, 09:42 AM
Article #1 simply stresses the point that Bob Sanders is a VITAL cog to the Colts' defense, but says it in a different way. He's trying to point out what was wrong with the Colts' defense during the regular season, but could've saved himself a lot of writing by trimming it all down to this one part of one of his sentences:



That's it. That was the big, "magical" defensive turnaround.

I like Bob Sanders a lot. But I do not buy that any safety is the difference between giving up 173 rushing yards per game (Colts in the regular season) and giving up 82 per game (Colts in the playoffs). That is just too high of a difference to claim that the turnaround was solely because Sanders came back. Here is a statistic that pretty much disproves that the theory that the turnaround was just because of Bob Sanders. In the four games that Bob Sanders played in the regular season, the Colts defense gave up an average of 162 rushing yards per game. That is just less than double of what they gave up in the playoffs.

keylime_5
09-08-2007, 09:50 AM
Kinda OT: But regarding Scott's blog about the Saints/Colts game I think he gives a little too much credit to Jackson, Hayden, Johnson, and Ugoh. Ugoh got owned all night but just b/c he didn't give up a sack doesn't mean he played that well. Keiaho was the one new starter on Indy that I thought was impressive, the others did solid jobs but that game was not necessarily a sign of things to come. Indy's defense probably won't be that good all year, especially on the road.

21ST
09-08-2007, 10:29 AM
I like Bob Sanders a lot. But I do not buy that any safety is the difference between giving up 173 rushing yards per game (Colts in the regular season) and giving up 82 per game (Colts in the playoffs). That is just too high of a difference to claim that the turnaround was solely because Sanders came back. Here is a statistic that pretty much disproves that the theory that the turnaround was just because of Bob Sanders. In the four games that Bob Sanders played in the regular season, the Colts defense gave up an average of 162 rushing yards per game. That is just less than double of what they gave up in the playoffs.

I was thinking exactly the same thing because there is no way someone so far away from the LOS can have that much of an impact in the run game.

RCAChainGang
09-08-2007, 10:57 AM
I like Bob Sanders a lot. But I do not buy that any safety is the difference between giving up 173 rushing yards per game (Colts in the regular season) and giving up 82 per game (Colts in the playoffs). That is just too high of a difference to claim that the turnaround was solely because Sanders came back. Here is a statistic that pretty much disproves that the theory that the turnaround was just because of Bob Sanders. In the four games that Bob Sanders played in the regular season, the Colts defense gave up an average of 162 rushing yards per game. That is just less than double of what they gave up in the playoffs.

I think he was the hype of our D. He's a leader on the defense. Thats my point of view, but I have wondered also how we pulled off that in the postseason. I don't think Bob Sanders was all of it...

bernbabybern820
09-08-2007, 11:08 AM
I think he was the hype of our D. He's a leader on the defense. Thats my point of view, but I have wondered also how we pulled off that in the postseason. I don't think Bob Sanders was all of it...

Well both DE's started pinching down inside and played the run other than on 3rd and long. The lbs were also more aggressive which led to quite a few completions on play actions if i remember correctly.

Philliez01
09-08-2007, 11:17 AM
Kinda OT: But regarding Scott's blog about the Saints/Colts game I think he gives a little too much credit to Jackson, Hayden, Johnson, and Ugoh. Ugoh got owned all night but just b/c he didn't give up a sack doesn't mean he played that well. Keiaho was the one new starter on Indy that I thought was impressive, the others did solid jobs but that game was not necessarily a sign of things to come. Indy's defense probably won't be that good all year, especially on the road.

Ugoh looked solid. He did have a few rookie mistakes, which was expected but the work he did on screen passes were amazing. He moves so fluently for an OT.

I think Jackson did a fairly good job last night. Actually I could say a very good job by Marlin.

How about the play of Rob Morris? That deserves a lot of mention as he really stepped up. Having Morris at SAM and Keiaho at WILL is way better than having Gardner at SAM and June at WILL.

MaxV
09-08-2007, 12:50 PM
Ugoh looked solid. He did have a few rookie mistakes, which was expected but the work he did on screen passes were amazing. He moves so fluently for an OT.

I think Jackson did a fairly good job last night. Actually I could say a very good job by Marlin.

How about the play of Rob Morris? That deserves a lot of mention as he really stepped up. Having Morris at SAM and Keiaho at WILL is way better than having Gardner at SAM and June at WILL.

That's a huge understatement.

Colts' D has PLENTY of talent, more then enough to be a solid unit this season.

NittanyLion2k7
09-08-2007, 02:18 PM
Well I'm glad some of you guys actually have the patience to read an article. I was seeing like 90 page views and 0 responses to the thread...

What do you guys think about his 3rd article where he says alot of the work that Lineman and Defensve players do goes unnoticed?

Dwight Freeney lead the league in QB Hurries according to Schatz...

MaxV
09-08-2007, 03:53 PM
BTW, it's funny how it works.

When Rob Morris was a 1st round pick and was underachieving, the Colts fans were really bashing him.

After he replaced Gilbert Gardner, he has shown good hustle and instincts and have become one of fan-favorites.

ks_perfection
09-08-2007, 07:46 PM
The biggest difference was there hustle, effort and making tackles. In the end of the regular season MJD would run through a number of colts to big gains, they just weren't tackling or hustling. In the playoffs that changed, they went after runners hard and made tackles. Sanders definitly helped, but they just hustled like a team in the playoffs and not one coasting to the playoffs.

BlindSite
09-09-2007, 12:36 AM
Well I'm glad some of you guys actually have the patience to read an article. I was seeing like 90 page views and 0 responses to the thread...

What do you guys think about his 3rd article where he says alot of the work that Lineman and Defensve players do goes unnoticed?

Dwight Freeney lead the league in QB Hurries according to Schatz...

Yeah, but Shatz's stats aren't coming from the most reliable source.

Not just that but Freeney might've got pressure but he's still not good enough against the run to be worth the money he's getting paid.

NittanyLion2k7
09-09-2007, 05:36 AM
We don't have any statistics to prove or disprove that. Is there a stat for tackles vs. the run? There clearly isn't... so how do we know who's the best run stopper? And its also on an individual basis since the Colts play a cover 2 and most of the run stopping responsibility falls to the Linebackers.

bernbabybern820
09-09-2007, 10:13 AM
BTW, it's funny how it works.

When Rob Morris was a 1st round pick and was underachieving, the Colts fans were really bashing him.

After he replaced Gilbert Gardner, he has shown good hustle and instincts and have become one of fan-favorites.

I like the number 60 DE guy from the colts. He has the most hustle ive ever seen in my life.

MaxV
09-09-2007, 11:16 AM
I like the number 60 DE guy from the colts. He has the most hustle ive ever seen in my life.

That's Jeff Charleston, an UFA rookie out of Idaho State. He wasn't even suppose to make the team, but looked very impressive during pre-season.

He seems like he has pretty good Size/Quickness combination, along with a good motor.

BlindSite
09-10-2007, 04:45 AM
We don't have any statistics to prove or disprove that. Is there a stat for tackles vs. the run? There clearly isn't... so how do we know who's the best run stopper? And its also on an individual basis since the Colts play a cover 2 and most of the run stopping responsibility falls to the Linebackers.

The eyes in my head seem to be a pretty good indicator.

Dam8610
09-10-2007, 10:31 PM
I like Bob Sanders a lot. But I do not buy that any safety is the difference between giving up 173 rushing yards per game (Colts in the regular season) and giving up 82 per game (Colts in the playoffs). That is just too high of a difference to claim that the turnaround was solely because Sanders came back. Here is a statistic that pretty much disproves that the theory that the turnaround was just because of Bob Sanders. In the four games that Bob Sanders played in the regular season, the Colts defense gave up an average of 162 rushing yards per game. That is just less than double of what they gave up in the playoffs.

Look at the difference between the Bears without and without Mike Brown last year in terms of rushing yardages allowed (which was over 50 YPG). Now consider Bob Sanders is a better safety playing with worse help around him. I'll admit saying he was all of it is a bit of a stretch, but the only other factor I saw that can be cited is more sensible DL calls by Meeks which forced the RB to the holes to which the defense wants him to go. When the right D gap (from the defense's perspective) wasn't occupied only by the backside contain man (the SLB), the RB couldn't simply cutback to it for a 10+ yard gainer every time the designed hole closed up.

Philliez01
09-10-2007, 10:36 PM
I like the number 60 DE guy from the colts. He has the most hustle ive ever seen in my life.

Matt Giordano of the Colts is easily the most hustling player on the team.

awfullyquiet
09-10-2007, 11:46 PM
Look at the difference between the Bears without and without Mike Brown last year in terms of rushing yardages allowed (which was over 50 YPG). Now consider Bob Sanders is a better safety playing with worse help around him. I'll admit saying he was all of it is a bit of a stretch, but the only other factor I saw that can be cited is more sensible DL calls by Meeks which forced the RB to the holes to which the defense wants him to go. When the right D gap (from the defense's perspective) wasn't occupied only by the backside contain man (the SLB), the RB couldn't simply cutback to it for a 10+ yard gainer every time the designed hole closed up.

The bears was more due to losing tommie harris than mike brown. Although mike browns loss hurt. no doubt.

BlindSite
09-11-2007, 01:53 AM
Chris Harris played damn well in his place though.

Dam8610
09-11-2007, 01:56 AM
The bears was more due to losing tommie harris than mike brown. Although mike browns loss hurt. no doubt.

When the Bears lost Tommie Harris, that's when they started giving up points in bunches. I think they averaged something around 125 rushing yards per game with Harris and without Brown (6 weeks) though.