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bearsfan_51
10-28-2007, 08:40 PM
This is my guess for the BCS Championship series.

Rose Bowl- January 1st, Pasedena, California
Arizona State (#4) vs. Michigan (#12)

Sugar Bowl- January 1st, New Orleans, Louisiana
LSU (#3) vs. Oklahoma (#6)

Fiesta Bowl- January 2nd, Glendale, Arizona
Kansas (#8) vs. Oregon (#5)

Orange Bowl- January 3rd, Miami, Florida
Connecticut (#13) vs. Georgia (#10)

BCS Championship Game- January 7th, New Orleans, Louisiania
Ohio State (#1) vs. Boston College (#2)


I realize that it's weeks away, and some of these teams would likely eliminate each other, but I was curious myself and tried to lay it out.

Here's what I think:

Once you lay out the current conference champions (OSU, BC, Kansas, Connecticut, LSU, Arizona State) you're left with 4 at large teams.

-Unfortunately for Hawaii they aren't in the top 12 yet, and Connecticut (current Big East champ) is one spot ahead of them at #13.

-Missouri (#9) is automatically disqualified because there's no chance in hell they're going to take Missouri over Oklahoma.

-This leaves Oregon, West Virginia, Georgia, Virginia Tech, and Michigan for the 3 remaining at-larges.

-Even though Michigan is the lowest at #12, there's no way the Rose Bowl passes on an opportunity to have a Pac-10, Big Ten matchup.

-Virginia Tech has a strong fan base, but not a huge one, and they're the lowest, thus they're out.

-Oregon at this point is #5, which isn't an automatic but might as well be (unless you're BYU).

-That leaves West Virginia and Georgia. In my opinion Georgia would take it because:

a) Oregon seems more likely for the Fiesta Bowl, and thus they wouldn't have two Big East teams in the Orange Bowl (one is an automatic)
b)Georgia has a larger and richer national fan-base.
c)Georgia has a strong football tradition and history (plus the SEC would likely trump the Big East)
d)Georgia is closer to Miami.

-The only upside I could see to West Virginia would be star power (White and Slaton) and to maintain the order of the BCS.

Like I said, it won't matter much next week anyway, but I was interested in looking at how things stood as of now.

jballa838
10-28-2007, 08:46 PM
thats interesting. i like it.
plus i like the BYU joke.

BrownsTown
10-28-2007, 08:47 PM
Isn't it top 14 for Hawaii? Or top 16 and above a conference champion, which would be irrelevant. But they'd get in above Michigan.

I think WV would get in ahead of Michigan, definately. I think it would be automatic since their ranked so high, but I can't see Michigan getting in ahead of them.

bearsfan_51
10-28-2007, 08:49 PM
In case anyone is unclear on the rules (probably should have explained that) here's a quick overview:


-The top two teams are given automatic berths in the BCS National Championship Game.
-The champions of the ACC (Orange), Big 12 (Fiesta), Big East (At-Large), Big Ten (Rose), Pac-10 (Rose), and SEC (Sugar) conferences are guaranteed automatic BCS bowl appearances.
-The highest ranked champion of a non-BCS conference will receive an automatic berth if:
-It is ranked in the top twelve, or
-Ranked in the top sixteen and higher than another BCS Conference champion.
-A special case is made for independent Notre Dame, which receives an automatic berth if they finish in the top eight.
-The third-ranked team will receive an automatic berth, if it has not already received one.
-If the third-ranked team did not require an at-large berth, then the fourth-ranked team will receive an automatic berth, if it has not already received one.
-No more than 2 teams from any one conference may receive berths in BCS games.
-After the automatic berths have been granted, the remaining berths, known as "at-large" berths, are filled from a pool of teams who are ranked in the top fourteen and have at least nine wins. The actual teams that are chosen for the at-large births are determined by the individual bowl committees

bearsfan_51
10-28-2007, 08:52 PM
Isn't it top 14 for Hawaii? Or top 16 and above a conference champion, which would be irrelevant. But they'd get in above Michigan.

I think WV would get in ahead of Michigan, definately. I think it would be automatic since their ranked so high, but I can't see Michigan getting in ahead of them.

No. Hawaii either has to

A)Finish in the top 12 (they are 14th)
B)Finish ahead of a conference champion and be in the top 14 (Connecticut is closest at 13th).

As for the Rose Bowl committee willingly choosing Hawaii over Michigan I say this:

http://www.biblehelp.org/images/stacks%20of%20money.jpg

It makes the world, and the BCS, go round.



And as the rules I showed listed, nothing outside of the top 4 is automatic unless you win your conference (or you're Notre Dame).

BrownsTown
10-28-2007, 08:54 PM
With this format, the champions of the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pacific-10 and Southeastern Conferences will continue to play annually in one of the BCS bowls through the post-season following the regular season. In addition, one conference champion from among Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West, Sun Belt, and Western Athletic Conferences will automatically qualify to play in a BCS bowl if it is:

(1) ranked among the top 14 teams in the final BCS standings; or

(2) ranked among the top 16 teams in the final BCS standings and ranked higher than the champion of one of the conferences whose champion has an annual automatic berth in a BCS bowl.

http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/bcs_explained.html

BrownsTown
10-28-2007, 08:54 PM
No. Hawaii either has to

A)Finish in the top 12 (they are 14th)
B)Finish ahead of a conference champion and be in the top 14 (Connecticut is closest at 13th).

As for the Rose Bowl committee willingly choosing Hawaii over Michigan I say this:

http://www.biblehelp.org/images/stacks%20of%20money.jpg

It makes the world, and the BCS, go round.

Not Hawaii, but #7 West Virginia?

Chaucer
10-28-2007, 08:58 PM
Rose Bowl would be ASU vs Oklahoma and Sugar Bowl would be LSU vs Michigan.

-Michigan has been to Pasadena 3 of the last 4 years and the fans wouldn't care about ASU so they wouldn't travel.

-The Rose Bowl committee would take Oklahoma as their fan base would more than likely bring in more revenue.

-Michigan would then be selected to play LSU because its a rare matchup of two prestigious schools.

bearsfan_51
10-28-2007, 08:59 PM
Actually we're both wrong:

A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

http://www.bcsfootball.org/bcsfb/eligibility


Either way, no I think the Rose Bowl would absolutely try to maintain the Big Ten-Pac Ten matchup at all costs. Not to mention that Michigan would bring them MUCH more money.

The West Virginia-Georgia decision is debateable. I just think Georgia would pull out as the BCS committee usually has an anti-Big East bias as none of those teams draw that well or have exceptionally large fan bases that travel.

bearsfan_51
10-28-2007, 09:01 PM
Rose Bowl would be ASU vs Oklahoma and Sugar Bowl would be LSU vs Michigan.

-Michigan has been to Pasadena 3 of the last 4 years and the fans wouldn't care about ASU so they wouldn't travel.

-The Rose Bowl committee would take Oklahoma as their fan base would more than likely bring in more revenue.

-Michigan would then be selected to play LSU because its a rare matchup of two prestigious schools.
I still find it very hard to believe the Rose Bowl would ever pass on a Big Ten or Pac Ten team if they had the chance. They by far have been the biggest against the BCS system and were dissapointed the year that they had to choose Oklahoma because there wasn't a second option available.

And Michigan has a larger fan base than Oklahoma. It's debateable how much Michigan fans would be apathetic about a Rose Bowl game against ASU. I'm doubting they would be to the degree that you think.

BrownsTown
10-28-2007, 09:01 PM
Actually we're both wrong:

A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

http://www.bcsfootball.org/bcsfb/eligibility


Either way, no I think the Rose Bowl would absolutely try to maintain the Big Ten-Pac Ten matchup at all costs. Not to mention that Michigan would bring them MUCH more money.

The West Virginia-Georgia decision is debateable. I just think Georgia would pull out as the BCS committee usually has an anti-Big East bias as none of those teams draw that well or have exceptionally large fan bases that travel.

They don't try THAT hard, especially considering how bad Michigan is this year. They'd take #7 over #12 any day.

P-L
10-28-2007, 09:01 PM
Even if they don't deserve it (yet at least...) Michigan would get in. bf51 is right, it's all about the money. Unfortunately for WVU and Hawaii, Michigan would produce more money.

bearsfan_51
10-28-2007, 09:03 PM
They don't try THAT hard, especially considering how bad Michigan is this year. They'd take #7 over #12 any day.

No...they really wouldn't. There is a stong precedence for this. It's the reason why they allow the commitees to choose all the way to the 14th team, so they can try to get as many BIG schools into the big games as they can.

Chaucer
10-28-2007, 09:04 PM
Even if they don't deserve it (yet at least...) Michigan would get in. bf51 is right, it's all about the money. Unfortunately for WVU and Hawaii, Michigan would produce more money.
I would argue this for WVU.

Michigan fans have been to L.A a lot lately and a lot don't really care for this years team allll that much. WVU, rarely gets into BCS games which would make the fan base more likely to travel.

There were talks about Michigan being skipped last year even.

bearsfan_51
10-28-2007, 09:06 PM
I would argue this for WVU.

Michigan fans have been to L.A a lot lately and a lot don't really care for this years team allll that much. WVU, rarely gets into BCS games which would make the fan base more likely to travel.

There were talks about Michigan being skipped last year even.
I'm not sure how much ratings have to do with it (I'm assuming quite a bit), but a Michigan game would get stronger ratings than a WVU game would. Football fans might prefer to see Slaton and White, but for the vast majority of Rose Bowl viewers that just watch to see the uniforms, would be more inclined to tune into a Michigan game.

Michigan
10-28-2007, 09:24 PM
They don't try THAT hard, especially considering how bad Michigan is this year. They'd take #7 over #12 any day.

Dude, we've won 7 straight games, the defense has been great, and our offense is getting healthy. We started horribly, but we'll be 9-2 entering the final week...

T-RICH49
10-28-2007, 09:29 PM
tha KU/ORE game would be intriguing.KU's tough run D vs Dennis Dixon and the Oregon run game

BrownsTown
10-28-2007, 09:36 PM
Dude, we've won 7 straight games, the defense has been great, and our offense is getting healthy. We started horribly, but we'll be 9-2 entering the final week...

You still lost to Appalachian State brudda.

yo123
10-28-2007, 09:52 PM
Dude, we've won 7 straight games, the defense has been great, and our offense is getting healthy. We started horribly, but we'll be 9-2 entering the final week...


I'd hardly say that you guys beating Wisky is a sure thing.

P-L
10-28-2007, 09:56 PM
You still lost to Appalachian State brudda.

Oh, I forgot that the 1st game of the season is the only one that matters. You know, I heard they're planning on moving to a 1 game season next year and then playing the Bowl game shortly after.

iowatreat54
10-28-2007, 10:01 PM
I'd hardly say that you guys beating Wisky is a sure thing.

I would give that about a 75%-80% chance of happening though...Michigan is rolling now and Wisconsin isn't that good (they are good but very, very beatable to an average team)...Michigan's D will contain Wisky IMO and Wisky's defense just isn't good enough to stop Hart, and if they have any success passing then Michigan will win

and anyone who doesn't think that the Rose Bowl would take Michigan over a higher ranked team like Oklahoma, WVU, etc. is insane...if you know anything really about the history of the Rose Bowl in the BCS era, the Rose Bowl rarely ever takes a non-Big Ten/non-Pac Ten team or both (outside of the BCS championships and 2003)...even though Michigan has sucked in the Rose Bowl the last 2 years, there's no way they pass on a big name, Big Ten team...oh, and whoever said that they would take WVU or Oklahoma because they would have a much better following, bring in more revenue, etc. is ridiculous

Sniper
10-28-2007, 10:11 PM
Oh, I forgot that the 1st game of the season is the only one that matters. You know, I heard they're planning on moving to a 1 game season next year and then playing the Bowl game shortly after.

You are correct.

Come on BT, if you're gonna make up a crock of ****, make it a believable crock of ****. Get out of the week 1 bubble. We're 7-2

Sniper
10-28-2007, 10:12 PM
I would give that about a 75%-80% chance of happening though...Michigan is rolling now and Wisconsin isn't that good (they are good but very, very beatable to an average team)...Michigan's D will contain Wisky IMO and Wisky's defense just isn't good enough to stop Hart, and if they have any success passing then Michigan will win

and anyone who doesn't think that the Rose Bowl would take Michigan over a higher ranked team like Oklahoma, WVU, etc. is insane...if you know anything really about the history of the Rose Bowl in the BCS era, the Rose Bowl rarely ever takes a non-Big Ten/non-Pac Ten team or both (outside of the BCS championships and 2003)...even though Michigan has sucked in the Rose Bowl the last 2 years, there's no way they pass on a big name, Big Ten team...oh, and whoever said that they would take WVU or Oklahoma because they would have a much better following, bring in more revenue, etc. is ridiculous


Dude, they lost by one to Texas. They got pimp smacked by SC, but Texas won on a partially blocked FG

iowatreat54
10-28-2007, 10:16 PM
Dude, they lost by one to Texas. They got pimp smacked by SC, but Texas won on a partially blocked FG

sorry by sucked I meant can't win...not that they actually sucked, but that they get the image of sucking in the Rose Bowl...either way, it still wouldn't prevent them from going to the Rose Bowl this year was my point

neko4
10-28-2007, 10:32 PM
Very nice writeup
And as much as ive had a love affair w/ Hawaii this year, theyll have to kill every team they play for the rest of the year to get into a BCS IMO and the toughest part of their sched is coming up(Fresno St, Nevada, Boise St, Washington)

bearsfan_51
10-28-2007, 10:36 PM
Very nice writeup
And as much as ive had a love affair w/ Hawaii this year, theyll have to kill every team they play for the rest of the year to get into a BCS IMO and the toughest part of their sched is coming up(Fresno St, Nevada, Boise St, Washington)
Actually their best bet is hoping that an upset occurs in one of conference championship games, meaning that they could stay at #14 and make it.

I dunno...some of it depends on the voters, but I think they have a good chance.

I also think they'll lose to Boise State though so it doesn't matter.

Apriori
10-28-2007, 10:48 PM
People in the know:
If Michigan loses to Ohio State in a not-blowout, sending OSU to championship game, how likely is Michigan to get invited to Pasadena?
Thanks.

kwilk103
10-28-2007, 10:59 PM
for having a small fan base, wvu travels extremely well

prob 10,000 at the usf game; there were a lot for the ul game last year, the gator bowl, and the sugar bowl

bcs bowl we'd bring a lot more, as people would make a vacation out of it

bearsfan_51
10-28-2007, 11:01 PM
for having a small fan base, wvu travels extremely well

prob 10,000 at the usf game; there were a lot for the ul game last year, the gator bowl, and the sugar bowl

bcs bowl we'd bring a lot more, as people would make a vacation out of it
Michigan is going to bring more fans, media interest, ratings than WVU. There's no question about that.

Georgia is debateable like I said. But Georgia has a much bigger fan base, tradition, name, etc.