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Scott Wright
12-20-2007, 06:39 AM
Since the draft order changed right after I finished my last mock draft update I went through and tweaked it a little bit. In all I changed six picks, including four in the Top 7. All in all I am very happy with the changes and how it turned out.

You can link to it via the main page and feel free to discuss it in this thread.

http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com

falconsrule
12-20-2007, 06:46 AM
Atlanta picked Matt Ryan while Jake Long was still on the board....WoW!!

BroadwayJoe10
12-20-2007, 07:03 AM
I thought for sure with Parcells taking over the VP of the dolphins they'd be taking Chris Long. For some reason, I just see parcells loving this kid; he is a great evaluator for talent that's for sure.

DiG
12-20-2007, 07:18 AM
jake long dropping past the Ravens surprises me.

urinemonkey
12-20-2007, 07:30 AM
I could live with Rivers for the Broncos, but I'd be very disappointed if they pass on Phillips.

Laurinaitis at #5 seems like a reach. Pats could trade down and still get him. If not, they should take Jake Long who has no business falling that far. Maybe Gholston if he grades out as a top 5 pick.

Mike Jenkins being taken before Malcolm Jenkins? As prospects they're about equal, but Malcolm has the advantage of coming from a big-time program known for churning out CBs.

Ewing
12-20-2007, 09:09 AM
I'm not a fan of taking Limas Sweed in the first round if James Hardy is available. If DeSean, Hardy and Kelly are all off the board the best pick would be a middle linebacker or DE. Dan Connor or Derrick Harvey would both be better picks over Sweed.

iloxygenil
12-20-2007, 09:36 AM
Matt Ryan to Atlanta...BOOO

gdamac
12-20-2007, 09:41 AM
Still love the Raider pick. Hoping we make it and then pick up one of these big WRs in the second round.

Sniper
12-20-2007, 09:47 AM
I'm really falling out of favor with DeSean Jackson to the Eagles. I know he's a speedster and a good returner, but his receiving skills are very meh. He had only two 100 yard games and one of them was against a very mediocre UCLA team. He was shut down numerous times, including 4 catches for 5 yards against Oregon State, 4 for 31 against Washington, 3 for 39 against Arizona amongst other terrible games.

I know he's likely the best return man in the draft, but with guys like Malcolm Jenkins, Calais Campbell, Dan Connor and Sam Baker on the board, I highly doubt that Jackson would be the pick. He could be, but I just don't see it happening

Iamcanadian
12-20-2007, 09:50 AM
Parcells won't go into the season depending on Beck to be his QB. He'll either bring in a veteran or draft Ryan who he has stated he likes a lot, so the #1 pick won't be decided until draft day itself.
I believe Gholston is too good for NE to pass at #5. I just think he will be a better pro than Laurinaitis.
I also think Scott is overrating the WR's available in this draft. I don't think more than 2 will make round 1. If Doucet times well and is completely healthy at the combine, he'll be the 1st WR drafted with Jackson being picked near the end of round 1. In the last 10 years there has never been a WR as small as Jackson who has been successful in the NFL. He will be lucky if he weighs in at 170lbs. at the combine. Sweed and Manningham are nice prospects but will have to really impress at the combine to go round 1 IMO.


I could really see Parcells trading out of the #1 pick. He's done it before when he was with the Jets and I could see him doing it again. He knows Miami needs a huge addition of talent to rebuild and will be looking for extra picks on draft day.

ATLDirtyBirds
12-20-2007, 09:52 AM
Matt Ryan to Atlanta...BOOO



Exactly. Epsically with Long on the board.

Iamcanadian
12-20-2007, 09:53 AM
I'm really falling out of favor with DeSean Jackson to the Eagles. I know he's a speedster and a good returner, but his receiving skills are very meh. He had only two 100 yard games and one of them was against a very mediocre UCLA team. He was shut down numerous times, including 4 catches for 5 yards against Oregon State, 4 for 31 against Washington, 3 for 39 against Arizona amongst other terrible games.

I know he's likely the best return man in the draft, but with guys like Malcolm Jenkins, Calais Campbell, Dan Connor and Sam Baker on the board, I highly doubt that Jackson would be the pick. He could be, but I just don't see it happening

I agree completely. Philly won't take Jackson at #15 IMO. He is a huge question mark as a pro prospect and might well weigh in at under 170lbs.

Sniper
12-20-2007, 09:55 AM
If Doucet times well and is completely healthy at the combine, he'll be the 1st WR drafted with Jackson being picked near the end of round 1.

I think Doucet might be the most overrated player in the draft. 9.5 ypc and he's supposed to be the #1 receiver?

Ewing
12-20-2007, 09:58 AM
Exactly. Epsically with Long on the board.

You really want Joey Harrington quarterbacking the team?

Sniper
12-20-2007, 10:04 AM
You really want Joey Harrington quarterbacking the team?

There ARE QBs available past the first round....And to be honest, I don't know if the difference between a guy like Brian Brohm and a Joe Flacco is THAT big that you'd feel compelled to pick a QB early.

Ewing
12-20-2007, 10:07 AM
There ARE QBs available past the first round....And to be honest, I don't know if the difference between a guy like Brian Brohm and a Joe Flacco is THAT big that you'd feel compelled to pick a QB early.

You can't guarantee Flacco will be on the board the next time the Falcons pick. Their best option is drafting one of the big three in the first round.

ATLDirtyBirds
12-20-2007, 10:08 AM
You really want Joey Harrington quarterbacking the team?



I'd prefer Harrington or Leftwich back there, with some kind of protection, handing the ball off. Instead of Matt Ryan back there under pressure making terrible decisions just like in college, throwing 20 or so INTs.

Ewing
12-20-2007, 10:11 AM
I'd prefer Harrington or Leftwich back there, with some kind of protection, handing the ball off. Instead of Matt Ryan back there under pressure making terrible decisions just like in college, throwing 20 or so INTs.

What about Woodson or Brohm?

ATLDirtyBirds
12-20-2007, 10:14 AM
What about Woodson or Brohm?


Not worth a top 5 pick. I like both, but not top 5. I think Woodson needs to sit on the bench for a year or so, and I think Brohm could be decent from the start.

Sniper
12-20-2007, 10:15 AM
You can't guarantee Flacco will be on the board the next time the Falcons pick. Their best option is drafting one of the big three in the first round.

Not really. The difference between Brohm/Ryan/Woodson and Flacco/Ainge/Henne/Brennan isn't that big.

Ewing
12-20-2007, 10:20 AM
Not really. The difference between Brohm/Ryan/Woodson and Flacco/Ainge/Henne/Brennan isn't that big.

There's a huge difference between the first three and Henne and Brennan. Flacco and/or Ainge might turn out better than the three first round quarterbacks but there's no way Chad Henne is going to be better than Andre Woodson.

Flyboy
12-20-2007, 10:53 AM
Thumbs up on the Saints selection.

bored of education
12-20-2007, 11:06 AM
i cant complain about getting Clady

PossumBoy9
12-20-2007, 11:43 AM
Scott, good job on the Rams pick. I'm pretty sure Chris Long or Gholston would be the pick there, as they are arguably the best players and defensive end is a huge need for St. Louis.

Nice to see Jake Long not linked to the Rams that high.

If not, they should take Jake Long who has no business falling that far.

I dunno. I think Scott did well on Jake Long, particularly if he thinks Atlanta is going QB.

SuperKevin
12-20-2007, 11:56 AM
jake long dropping past the Ravens surprises me.

The Ravens have a ton of young tackles in Yanda, Terry, and Gaither. They already have a logjam

BamaFalcon59
12-20-2007, 12:25 PM
Matt Ryan to Atlanta...BOOO

Co-signed.

georgiafan
12-20-2007, 12:26 PM
If the falcons don't fix there OL it doesn't matter who is the QB.

BamaFalcon59
12-20-2007, 12:26 PM
Exactly. Especially with Long on the board.

And co-signed

Oaktown1981
12-20-2007, 12:33 PM
Great pick for Oakland.

Don Killuminati
12-20-2007, 12:43 PM
Gholston for Oakland is good. If we land a DT with little-to-no motivational issues in Rd2, Gholston will look great.

picklefork
12-20-2007, 12:53 PM
Well done...you got the right Long going to the Rams....Chris!!

treyskins
12-20-2007, 12:55 PM
Good looking draft- for many teams.

From a Redskins standpoint, with rocky mcintosh's injury do you think they will look hard at getting a linebacker?
Dan Connor could start at weakside then slide across to middle when london fletcher is done.

scar988
12-20-2007, 01:00 PM
You really want Joey Harrington quarterbacking the team?
no, it's why we can take a guy in the 2nd with one of our 2 2nd round picks. OT is as big if not a bigger need than QB because it affects the whole offense.

SuperKevin
12-20-2007, 01:04 PM
When do we start seeing a 2nd round get added?

BeerBaron
12-20-2007, 03:24 PM
Im still not a fan of the bears going QB in round 1...

if they bring one in like that hes just going to get killed behind a rapidly deteriorating oline

The Legend
12-20-2007, 03:56 PM
i think falcons could get a 2nd round qb or a late 1st round if woodson drops and they wanna jump back into the 1st round

i think there main need is JAKE LONG!!!

keylime_5
12-20-2007, 07:44 PM
Not that anyone can really tell how things will shake out in December, but Malcolm Jenkins is gonna go higher than 16 overall if he comes out, he's 6-1/208 and runs a 4.4 and has been the closest thing to shutdown cover corner in college this year, and even if a team were to draft him to play free safety for them, he'd be a top 10 pick prolly.


Also I think since Miami runs a 3-4 of sort and with Bill Parcells coming in, the Dolphins might opt for fast rising Chris Long over Dorsey- a DT who doesn't fit the 3-4 at all, and the only way I see a 3-4 team drafting a guy like Dorsey is if it's later in the draft where it's simply BPA and no one like Chris Long or Jake Long is available. I'm surprised I don't see as many mocks with Chris Long going so high, he only had 14 sacks this year and was unblockable at times, and is a perfect fit in Miami considering Jason Taylor is on his way out.

P-L
12-20-2007, 08:17 PM
I will stop watching professional football until the Lions fire Matt Millen if he selects Jeff Otah. That would honestly be the last straw. Sorry, the guy screams "George Foster: Part 2" to me. He's just another big, athletic, EXTREMELY raw OT who is going to need a lot of good coaching to be successful. I don't see any indication that our current staff can turn this guy into anything more than an average starter. From what I've seen from Otah, he's ALL upside and his play on the field certainly doesn't warrant his draft stock. That is exactly the type of player that has a 0% chance for success with the Lions.

JCutlery
12-20-2007, 10:37 PM
DJ Williams successful on the strongside? Since when?

DiG
12-21-2007, 12:29 AM
Good looking draft- for many teams.

From a Redskins standpoint, with rocky mcintosh's injury do you think they will look hard at getting a linebacker?
Dan Connor could start at weakside then slide across to middle when london fletcher is done.

screw that. hb blades is fletchers successor. the playing time he has had hes looked great and hell get some more playing time to finish the year with mcintosh out. the only lber id want us to look at in rd 1 is erin henderson if he comes out.

Hurricane Ditka
12-21-2007, 12:51 AM
I don't think the Bears can afford to spend a first round pick on a quarterback with two top tier offensive tackles on the board. Especially since Woodson fits in the least with what we claim our offensive game plan is. With our offensive line as bad as it is Ryan Clady or Jeff Otah should be the pick here. If we remain a running offense we need to make the line, younger, and stronger.

Scott Wright
12-21-2007, 04:06 AM
I agree completely. Philly won't take Jackson at #15 IMO. He is a huge question mark as a pro prospect and might well weigh in at under 170lbs.

Ted Ginn weight 178 lbs. and went #9 overall and he isn't as good of a prospect as DeSean Jackson is as either a wideout or a return man. Granted Ginn was chosen too high (at least in my opinion) but Jackson is a lock for the Top 15-20.

Scott Wright
12-21-2007, 04:08 AM
When do we start seeing a 2nd round get added?

I will add a second round after the underclassmen deadline. In fact, that will probably be the last mock before I head to Mobile so it will be somewhere between January 15 and January 20.

Don Killuminati
12-21-2007, 05:04 AM
Scott...Oakland needs to go DL in both rounds....Bend to my will, Scott...

Iamcanadian
12-21-2007, 06:40 AM
Parcells passed on Orlando Pace when he had the 1st pick in the draft for the Jets on a team needing to rebuild. He traded the pick for a bunch of draft picks. So it is not inconceivable that he will do the same thing with Miami's #1 pick overall. Of course there wasn't a top 5 QB in that draft.
One area people forget when assigning top 3 picks is the financial consequences of drafting a position player over a skill player. It is quite reasonable in the cap era to pay a QB 60 million dollars, all the top QB's in the league are the top paid guys on their team. It is quite another matter to pay a position player QB money to play for you. I'm of the opinion that teams that have to draft position players with the 1st 3 picks in the draft are setting themselves up to never win the Super Bowl because they will never afford the cap space to have a franchise QB if they are already paying a position player the money they need to have a great QB. You cannot have 2 players on your team making top QB money. For proof that this may indeed influence GM's throughout the league, all you have to look at is the # of QB's taken with the 1st pick in the draft.
Based on this assumption, I think if Miami keeps the 1st pick which isn't at all certain with Parcells calling the shots and doesn't trade it, they will follow the golden rule for GM's holding the 1st overall pick, draft a potential franchise QB. Besides not recking your financial structure for success, a franchise QB is still the most important position on a football team and I believe Parcells is well aware of that fact. Beck may turnout to be an OK QB but I don't think he is franchise material.
I don't think Parcells is thinking about Miami as an average team in his rebuilding plans, I think he will act to build a championship team and he knows that starts will a franchise QB. His other alternative is to sign a veteran QB and trade the 1st overall pick to another team for multiple picks, something he has done in the past. I just don't believe he will draft Dorsey, a position player and pay him 60 million dollars to play DE on a 3-4 team. It makes absolutely no financial sense.

Iamcanadian
12-21-2007, 06:51 AM
Ted Ginn weight 178 lbs. and went #9 overall and he isn't as good of a prospect as DeSean Jackson is as either a wideout or a return man. Granted Ginn was chosen too high (at least in my opinion) but Jackson is a lock for the Top 15-20.

I can see Ginn as playing at 185lbder, I'm just not sure Jackson will ever be that big. Of course, the NFL scouts and GM's will have a lot better idea than me of what Jackson can achieve with his weight. I love him as a player but a pro team has to ask(if he has to play at 170lbs), can he last in pro football. I cannot think of another 170 lbs WR who played at a high level in the NFL.
As for Philly taking him, they tried another thin guy, Pinkston, without much success so I also wonder if they will take another shot at a thin player. So even if he's a lock for 15-20, is Philly the team that will draft him?
All I'm saying is, he is a great prospect but he looks too light to me to stay healthy in the NFL, and I think on draft day he could slide because of his weight.

D-Rod
12-21-2007, 09:50 AM
I join the chorus of Falcons fans booing the selection of Ryan.

keylime_5
12-21-2007, 11:39 AM
Ted Ginn weight 178 lbs. and went #9 overall and he isn't as good of a prospect as DeSean Jackson is as either a wideout or a return man. Granted Ginn was chosen too high (at least in my opinion) but Jackson is a lock for the Top 15-20.

Return man? Okay I might give you wideout, but Ginn has the NCAA record for returns not to mention about 2 or 3 called back by holding or a ghost penalty. Jackson had 1 this year, and that was week 1 vs Tennessee.

...Jackson's sophomore year might've been stellar, but his junior year was no where close to as good as Ginn's was.

draftguru151
12-21-2007, 11:46 AM
Return man? Okay I might give you wideout, but Ginn has the NCAA record for returns not to mention about 2 or 3 called back by holding or a ghost penalty. Jackson had 1 this year, and that was week 1 vs Tennessee.

...Jackson's sophomore year might've been stellar, but his junior year was no where close to as good as Ginn's was.

Yea I'm sure that had nothing to do with Jackson getting half the returns Ginn did his junior year.

619
12-21-2007, 02:25 PM
Return man? Okay I might give you wideout, but Ginn has the NCAA record for returns not to mention about 2 or 3 called back by holding or a ghost penalty. Jackson had 1 this year, and that was week 1 vs Tennessee.

...Jackson's sophomore year might've been stellar, but his junior year was no where close to as good as Ginn's was.

Desean is an overall superior kick returner he has the combo of speed and elusiveness only comparable to Hester though hes nowhere near him yet. Ginn is far too dependent on speed alone on his returns and the gaps close incredibly quickly on this level where you might need to resort to some sort of creativity.

Splat
12-21-2007, 02:39 PM
If Jake Long is on the board when the Chiefs pick and they don't take him I'm done 24 years of being a Chiefs fan over. That beign said I will be shocked if he last that long I have seen other mocks having the Chiefs going QB never going to happen. They still believe as do I that Croyle is the QBOTF he just has nothing around him to work with the line is the worst I have seen for the Chiefs since well maybe ever.

keylime_5
12-21-2007, 03:10 PM
Say what you guys want but Ginn was a better kick returner in college than Desean, period.

619
12-21-2007, 03:16 PM
Say what you guys want but Ginn was a better kick returner in college than Desean, period.

Maybe in college but Deseans returning skills will translate better in the pros than Ginns.

Sniper
12-21-2007, 03:32 PM
Say what you guys want but Ginn was a better kick returner in college than Desean, period.

That's weird since DeSean beat him out for the best returner of the year award. That's an award that would likely be only based on stats

Jr. Ted Ginn vs. So. DeSean Jackson

Ted Ginn: 24 PR 266 yards 11.08 YPR 1 TD, 18 KR 440 yards 24.44 YPR 1 TD
DeSean Jackson: 25 PR 455 yards 18.20 YPR 4 TD, 2 KR 38 yards 19.0 YPR

Looks like DJax only had 2 kickoff returns, so let's look at punt returns...jackson outdoes him by over 7 yards per return and 3 TD

soybean
12-21-2007, 03:48 PM
EDIT: nm came into the conversation too late.

keylime_5
12-21-2007, 05:18 PM
That's weird since DeSean beat him out for the best returner of the year award. That's an award that would likely be only based on stats

Jr. Ted Ginn vs. So. DeSean Jackson

Ted Ginn: 24 PR 266 yards 11.08 YPR 1 TD, 18 KR 440 yards 24.44 YPR 1 TD
DeSean Jackson: 25 PR 455 yards 18.20 YPR 4 TD, 2 KR 38 yards 19.0 YPR

Looks like DJax only had 2 kickoff returns, so let's look at punt returns...jackson outdoes him by over 7 yards per return and 3 TD

You wanna play the stat game you'll lose. Ginn's freshman year outdid Jackson' sophomore, and his junior year outdid Jackson's junior year. Ginn has the NCAA RECORD for return touchdowns, Jackson is a handful of TDs short.

keylime_5
12-21-2007, 05:20 PM
Maybe in college but Deseans returning skills will translate better in the pros than Ginns.

We'll get to that when they're both pros and we have some visual evidence. Ginn was a darn good return man this year despite being on a horrible unit and a one win team with a crappy coaching staff. He had a TD or two and had at least 2 TDs called back that I saw (both of which were on penalties that he wouldve scored on anyways if they weren't commited prolly). Why does this board hate Teddy so, it's gotta be the only one I've seen this bad?

fenikz
12-21-2007, 05:27 PM
Say what you guys want but Ginn was a better kick returner in college than Desean, period.

Desean>>>Ginn

Hell

Breaston>>>Ginn

keylime_5
12-21-2007, 05:39 PM
IN college Breaston couldn't hold a candle to Teddy. Desean was second rate to Ginn in college too. You can't say anything about Steve, Ted, or Desean in the pro level b/c Ginn and Breaston both had good seasons as returners as rookies, and Desean is still in college. But at least Ginn be a good WR, Breaston is only a return guy like Hester pretty much.

HECK, breaston's return numbers this year aren't even as good as Ginn's, and people on here make it sound as though Steve is so much better than anyone else but Devin at returns. Ginn has a better ypreturn in punt and kick; same # of TDs (both have 1 PR TD).

Sniper
12-21-2007, 05:54 PM
IN college Breaston couldn't hold a candle to Teddy. Desean was second rate to Ginn in college too. You can't say anything about Steve, Ted, or Desean in the pro level b/c Ginn and Breaston both had good seasons as returners as rookies, and Desean is still in college. But at least Ginn be a good WR, Breaston is only a return guy like Hester pretty much.

HECK, breaston's return numbers this year aren't even as good as Ginn's, and people on here make it sound as though Steve is so much better than anyone else but Devin at returns. Ginn has a better ypreturn in punt and kick; same # of TDs (both have 1 PR TD).

Breaston is only the Big 10's career leader in return yardage. Do you think before you hop on Ginn's knob all the time?

Ginn is averaging a mighty 0.1 ypr more on kick returns and 0.2 more on PR. MAN WAS HE WORTH THE #9 PICK!

Breaston '06 at UM: 29 PR 332 yards 11.45 yards 1 TD. 21 KR 467 yards 22.24 ypr 0 TD
Ginn '06 season at OSU: 24 PR 266 yards 11.08 yards 1 TD. 18 KR 440 yards 24.44 yards 1 TD

So um yeah Breason outdid Ginn on punts by .37 yards per and Ginn won the KR by 2.20 yards. Good thing Breaston's stats "couldn't hold a candle" to Ted Ginn's. Think before speaking ok? kthxbai!

BeerBaron
12-21-2007, 07:11 PM
Breaston is only the Big 10's career leader in return yardage. Do you think before you hop on Ginn's knob all the time?

Ginn is averaging a mighty 0.1 ypr more on kick returns and 0.2 more on PR. MAN WAS HE WORTH THE #9 PICK!

Breaston '06 at UM: 29 PR 332 yards 11.45 yards 1 TD. 21 KR 467 yards 22.24 ypr 0 TD
Ginn '06 season at OSU: 24 PR 266 yards 11.08 yards 1 TD. 18 KR 440 yards 24.44 yards 1 TD

So um yeah Breason outdid Ginn on punts by .37 yards per and Ginn won the KR by 2.20 yards. Good thing Breaston's stats "couldn't hold a candle" to Ted Ginn's. Think before speaking ok? kthxbai!

wow, are those fractions of a yard worth the difference between a #9 overall pick and what, the 5th or 6th round for breaston?

i think not.

DraftMichaelHuff
12-21-2007, 07:18 PM
Joey Harrington Byron Leftwhich and Chris Redman are far better QB's than Renardo Forster Quinn Okinyaka and Wayne Gandy are/were LT's.

If we pass on Jake Long for Matt Ryan look for another long season for ATL and then look for Ryan to turn out JUST LIKE Joey harrington & David Carr with zero confidence to air it out (that may last his entire career)because of as disasterous rookie campaign where he is sacked 5+ times a game.

A rookie qb in the top 5 will either A) will not start and not help both phases of the offense like Long will as an immeadiate starter OR B) Start from the get go and stuggle with no protection or ground game that, it could be argued, would be improved if he was a 2nd round QB because the drafting of Long in the 1st would help both the aforementioned phases.

Id even go as far as to say a round 2 QB would have more success as an immeadiate starter than a top 5 guy by virtue of the improved running game and pass protection that Long would provide.

Bad Pick IMO

Cashmoney
12-21-2007, 07:36 PM
There are literally 10 WR's I'd rather see the titans take than Sweed. Our offense lacks playmakers/speed, and I just dont see either of those in Sweed.

Sniper
12-21-2007, 07:47 PM
wow, are those fractions of a yard worth the difference between a #9 overall pick and what, the 5th or 6th round for breaston?

i think not.

What are you talking about? Ted Ginn is LIGHT YEARS ahead of Steve Breaston. ;)

scar988
12-21-2007, 08:07 PM
Judging by the reaction to my latest mock draft on the message boards it appears that Falcon fans don't want a quarterback with their top pick. In response to that I only have one question:

Are you kidding me?

Seriously, are you kidding me? Now I'll be the first to tell you that there isn't a quarterback in this draft worthy of a Top 10 pick, let alone a Top 5 pick, but need plays a bigger role than ever these days and it's pretty easy to make the argument that no team has a more gaping hole at any position than Atlanta does at quarterback. Joey Harrington. Byron Leftwich. Chris Redman! I think that says it all. Are there going to be better players available to the Falcons with that first pick? Absolutely. However in the NFL everything revolves around the quarterback position and until you are set there you really aren't going anywhere. Just ask the Chicago Bears, Baltimore Ravens and about a half dozen other teams. I know it's popular for NFL decision makers to say they are going to take the "best player available" but that, for the lack of a better word, is bull. 99% of the time they are going to take the best player who fills a major need. Falcon fans will probably tell you they'd rather take Darren McFadden or Jake Long with the first pick and then get a quarterback later but there is no guaranteeing the guy they are targeting will be available later and believe it or not Tom Brady is the exception, not the rule. Sure you can find a starting quarterback later in the draft but it's not nearly as easy as some make it out to be and if you want a true star you'll most likely have to get him in the first round. Do names like John Elway and Peyton Manning ring a bell? Obviously it's still very early and a lot can happen but at this point I would be absolutely stunned if the Falcons didn't take a signal caller with that top pick and if they don't it will be yet another huge and almost monumental mistake for that franchise.

Then again at the rate they are going maybe they won't take a quarterback...


um, no. most teams don't draft by biggest need or go by the prescribed model on how to build a franchise. a team will stick to it's board, you out of all people would know this. If a team has a QB rated 11th, and that's it's biggest need but an OT rated 3 and that's the BPA and also fits a need (RENARDO FOSTER IS OUR STARTING LT NEXT YEAR AS OF TODAY!!! ARE YOU KIDDING?) you're telling me the team will take the #11 player on it's board because other people believe it's a bigger need and other people believe that it's the right pick? NO! the team will stick to it's board and in this case take the OT.

nice try though, Scott. You are a smart man, but in this case, you're wrong. teams don't go by pure need.

Scott Wright
12-21-2007, 08:20 PM
um, no. most teams don't draft by biggest need or go by the prescribed model on how to build a franchise. a team will stick to it's board, you out of all people would know this. If a team has a QB rated 11th, and that's it's biggest need but an OT rated 3 and that's the BPA and also fits a need (RENARDO FOSTER IS OUR STARTING LT NEXT YEAR AS OF TODAY!!! ARE YOU KIDDING?) you're telling me the team will take the #11 player on it's board because other people believe it's a bigger need and other people believe that it's the right pick? NO! the team will stick to it's board and in this case take the OT.

nice try though, Scott. You are a smart man, but in this case, you're wrong. teams don't go by pure need.

Look at the Top 10 of last year's Draft and tell me what percentage of those picks were made based on need:

1. Raiders - JaMarcus Russell
2. Lions - Calvin Johnson
3. Browns - Joe Thomas
4. Bucs - Gaines Adams
5. Cardinals - Levi Brown
6. Redskins - LaRon Landry
7. Vikings - Adrian Peterson
8. Falcons - Jamaal Anderson
9. Dolphins - Ted Ginn Jr.
10. Texans - Amobi Okoye

By my count 80% of those picks were based largely on need, with only the Lions and the Vikings taking a player who played a position where they were already set. And in those cases the biggest reason was because those were special, rare, elite prospects.

In today's NFL Draft need is the #1 factor. Do they go by "pure" need? No. But it is the overriding factor.

And using your example, yes, if a team has a need at quarterback and offensive tackle they will take the signal caller 9 times out of 10, even if the other guy is rated higher on their board.

Cashmoney
12-21-2007, 08:23 PM
um, no. most teams don't draft by biggest need or go by the prescribed model on how to build a franchise. a team will stick to it's board, you out of all people would know this. If a team has a QB rated 11th, and that's it's biggest need but an OT rated 3 and that's the BPA and also fits a need (RENARDO FOSTER IS OUR STARTING LT NEXT YEAR AS OF TODAY!!! ARE YOU KIDDING?) you're telling me the team will take the #11 player on it's board because other people believe it's a bigger need and other people believe that it's the right pick? NO! the team will stick to it's board and in this case take the OT.

nice try though, Scott. You are a smart man, but in this case, you're wrong. teams don't go by pure need.

All of the falcons fans want Jake Long and their main reason is we can get a QB in the secound round. i have a question. Do you not think that you could get an OT in the second round as well? This is a deep draft for OT's as well, and from what I've seen of Jake Long nothing about him screams elite LT to me.

Scott Wright
12-21-2007, 08:28 PM
All of the falcons fans want Jake Long and their main reason is we can get a QB in the secound round. i have a question. Do you not think that you could get an OT in the second round as well? This is a deep draft for OT's as well, and from what I've seen of Jake Long nothing about him screams elite LT to me.

Excellent point. One of the strengths of this draft will be offensive tackles in the late first round or early second round. Sam Baker, Chris Williams, Tony Hills, Oniel Cousins, Carl Nicks, etc.

It's just like the Dolphins last year, which combo would you rather have: Brady Quinn and Sidney Rice or Ted Ginn and John Beck? Give me option A.

Falcon fans, which duo would you rather have:

Matt Ryan and Chris Williams

or

Jake Long and Joe Flacco

ATLDirtyBirds
12-21-2007, 08:28 PM
Look at the Top 10 of last year's Draft and tell me what percentage of those picks were made based on need:

1. Raiders - JaMarcus Russell
2. Lions - Calvin Johnson
3. Browns - Joe Thomas
4. Bucs - Gaines Adams
5. Cardinals - Levi Brown
6. Redskins - LaRon Landry
7. Vikings - Adrian Peterson
8. Falcons - Jamaal Anderson
9. Dolphins - Ted Ginn Jr.
10. Texans - Amobi Okoye

By my count 80% of those picks were based largely on need, with only the Lions and the Vikings taking a player who played a position where they were already set. And in those cases the biggest reason was because those were special, rare, elite prospects.

In today's NFL Draft need is the #1 factor. Do they go by "pure" need? No. But it is the overriding factor.

And using your example, yes, if a team has a need at quarterback and offensive tackle they will take the signal caller 9 times out of 10, even if the other guy is rated higher on their board.


First off, RB, LT, and QB are major needs all needs.

Dunn is averaging 3.1 YPC, and Jerious is an very good #2 change-up back, but definately can't handle a full load.

Renardo Foster is probably our starting LT next year at the moment. He was an UDFA who made the team because he played under Petrino.

We all know about quaterback.


I highly doubt the Falcons think any differently of the QBs then most. You are going to tell me if Darren McFadden who is this stud RB is on the board, and so is Ryan, we are going to take Ryan?

Scott Wright
12-21-2007, 08:31 PM
You are going to tell me if Darren McFadden who is this stud RB is on the board, and so is Ryan, we are going to take Ryan?

Absolutely, no question about it.

You said it yourself, with all of their needs they can't afford to address one of the few positions where they are relatively solid. Running back isn't the Falcons Top 5 needs.

ATLDirtyBirds
12-21-2007, 08:32 PM
Absolutely, no question about it.

You said it yourself, with all of their needs they can't afford to address one of the few positions where they are relatively solid. Running back isn't the Falcons Top 5 needs.



Care to explain that? Dunn at 3.1 YPC, and Jerious gets hurt when he has more then 10 carries a game.

Scott Wright
12-21-2007, 08:36 PM
For the last 5+ years the Falcons have had one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL. The reason they struggled this year was the offensive line, the change in scheme and the utter lack of a passing game. You address the issues under center and up front and the combo of Dunn and Norwood is more than adequate. Are either of them LaDainian Tomlinson or Adrian Peterson? No. But running back is the least of Atlanta's concerns.

EDIT: I don't blame Atlanta fans for wanting McFadden, he's a terrific talent and the best player in the draft, but he isn't going to be a Falcon. In fact, if they aren't choosing higher than #4 he won't be available to them anyway.

Cashmoney
12-21-2007, 08:37 PM
Care to explain that? Dunn at 3.1 YPC, and Jerious gets hurt when he has more then 10 carries a game.

Well if your front office is intelligent they will try to address at least one of your top 3 or 4 needs before the draft. RB would be the one I'd believe they'd try to address before the draft because better RB's usually hit free agency more or are easier to trade for than LT's or QB's. Michael Turner maybe?

scar988
12-21-2007, 08:39 PM
Excellent point. One of the strengths of this draft will be offensive tackles in the late first round or early second round. Sam Baker, Chris Williams, Tony Hills, Oniel Cousins, Carl Nicks, etc.

It's just like the Dolphins last year, which combo would you rather have: Brady Quinn and Sidney Rice or Ted Ginn and John Beck? Give me option A.

Falcon fans, which duo would you rather have:

Matt Ryan and Chris Williams

or

Jake Long and Joe Flacco

Jake Long and Colt Brennan

scar988
12-21-2007, 08:41 PM
For the last 5+ years the Falcons have had one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL. The reason they struggled this year was the offensive line, the change in scheme and the utter lack of a passing game. You address the issues under center and up front and the combo of Dunn and Norwood is more than adequate. Are either of them LaDainian Tomlinson or Adrian Peterson? No. But running back is the least of Atlanta's concerns.

EDIT: I don't blame Atlanta fans for wanting McFadden, he's a terrific talent and the best player in the draft, but he isn't going to be a Falcon. In fact, if they aren't choosing higher than #4 he won't be available to them anyway.

hmmm, Offensive Line. like I've been saying LT affects more of the offense than QB does. We need that LT. that Franchise LT. Long is that guy. I feel like oyu're trying to say that Renardo Foster is quality enough to be our starting LT. he isn't. the situation I see playing out, is we go Long, thne we trade up to aroudn 15-20 with our 2 2nds and get a QB there.

ATLDirtyBirds
12-21-2007, 08:43 PM
For the last 5+ years the Falcons have had one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL. The reason they struggled this year was the offensive line, the change in scheme and the utter lack of a passing game. You address the issues under center and up front and the combo of Dunn and Norwood is more than adequate. Are either of them LaDainian Tomlinson or Adrian Peterson? No. But running back is the least of Atlanta's concerns.


That rushing attack was also highly attributed to Michael Vick. Watching games will let you know that Warrick is done. He had surgery in the offseason, and was hampered by injuries. Isn't quick or shifty anymore, and at 180, he needs to be. I'm not going to buy into the it's the O-Line fault either. Our offense line isn't very good, no doubt. We aren't all that bad at run blocking. When Jerious has stepped in though, he's done just fine, but he can't handle the load.

You really don't think Atlanta will take a look and see what a team like the Vikings can do with a potent rushing attack in the weak NFC? And we will take a QB who isn't at all worth the #4 selection, and will just cripple the franchise because he is making top 5 money, and is making the same terrible mistakes he made in college?

ATLDirtyBirds
12-21-2007, 08:47 PM
Well if your front office is intelligent they will try to address at least one of your top 3 or 4 needs before the draft. RB would be the one I'd believe they'd try to address before the draft because better RB's usually hit free agency more or are easier to trade for than LT's or QB's. Michael Turner maybe?



I like Turner. I think he can be a good #1 back. At this point though, we can invest in a proven OL via FA, instead of Turner. Fact is, as good as Turner could possibly be, a proven OL is safer.

Scott Wright
12-21-2007, 08:50 PM
That rushing attack was also highly attributed to Michael Vick. Watching games will let you know that Warrick is done. He had surgery in the offseason, and was hampered by injuries. Isn't quick or shifty anymore, and at 180, he needs to be. I'm not going to buy into the it's the O-Line fault either. Our offense line isn't very good, no doubt. We aren't all that bad at run blocking. When Jerious has stepped in though, he's done just fine, but he can't handle the load.

You really don't think Atlanta will take a look and see what a team like the Vikings can do with a potent rushing attack in the weak NFC? And we will take a QB who isn't at all worth the #4 selection, and will just cripple the franchise because he is making top 5 money, and is making the same terrible mistakes he made in college?

As I said in my blog you can't compare Minnesota's situation with Peterson to Atlanta's with McFadden. The Vikings were MUCH further along in the development of their roster and could afford to take a chance like that.

There is no question that offensive tackle is a huge concern for the Falcons and Jake Long should get some consideration but they can get a starting caliber tackle at the top of round two. You aren't going to get a quarterback who you can build your team around (both on AND off the field) in the mid-30's.

scar988
12-21-2007, 08:52 PM
As I said in my blog you can't compare Minnesota's situation with Peterson to Atlanta's with McFadden. The Vikings were MUCH further along in the development of their roster and could afford to take a chance like that.

There is no question that offensive tackle is a huge concern for the Falcons and Jake Long should get some consideration but they can get a starting caliber tackle at the top of round two. You aren't going to get a quarterback who you can build your team around (both on AND off the field) in the mid-30's.so we trade up to one of the 3 who fall! BUT I think Brennan can be built around. I Also think we could build up other pieces and get the franchise QB next year

Scott Wright
12-21-2007, 08:56 PM
so we trade up to one of the 3 who fall! BUT I think Brennan can be built around. I Also think we could build up other pieces and get the franchise QB next year

I promise you the Falcons are going to get their quarterback of the future this offseason, they aren't going to wait around another year to address that position.

ATLDirtyBirds
12-21-2007, 08:56 PM
As I said in my blog you can't compare Minnesota's situation with Peterson to Atlanta's with McFadden. The Vikings were MUCH further along in the development of their roster and could afford to take a chance like that.

There is no question that offensive tackle is a huge concern for the Falcons and Jake Long should get some consideration but they can get a starting caliber tackle at the top of round two. You aren't going to get a quarterback who you can build your team around (both on AND off the field) in the mid-30's.


I agree, you can't compare Peterson's affect with McFadden. It's going to be a long time before we see another rookie preformance like that IMO. The thing is, we can still build a very solid offense by running the ball like the Vikes, and keeping our defense out there, because our defense isn't that far away from being very good.

And what's so great about Ryan that is going to make him the one to build around? It certainly isn't his decision making. He doesn't have a great arm either. I don't think he is someone you build your team around. An if you try, you are probably going to end up alot like the 49ers.

scar988
12-21-2007, 08:58 PM
I promise you the Falcons are going to get their quarterback of the future this offseason, they aren't going to wait around another year to address that position.

and who's to say we don't do it in the 2nd round?

scar988
12-21-2007, 08:58 PM
I agree, you can't compare Peterson's affect with McFadden. It's going to be a long time before we see another rookie preformance like that IMO. The thing is, we can still build a very solid offense by running the ball like the Vikes, and keeping our defense out there, because our defense isn't that far away from being very good.

And what's so great about Ryan that is going to make him the one to build around? It certainly isn't his decision making. He doesn't have a great arm either. I don't think he is someone you build your team around. An if you try, you are probably going to end up alot like the 49ers.
exactly, no QB in thsi draft can be built around in the first round. JMO

Scott Wright
12-21-2007, 09:27 PM
The thing is, we can still build a very solid offense by running the ball like the Vikes, and keeping our defense out there, because our defense isn't that far away from being very good.

But the Falcons don't have Steve Hutchinson, Matt Birk and Bryant McKinnie.

Come to think of it, they don't have Kevin or Pat Williams on defense either.

The Falcons don't have the tools to run the ball like Minnesota or play defense like them. Apples and oranges.

and who's to say we don't do it in the 2nd round?

Because you don't get franchise quarterbacks you build a team around in the second round. Don't underestimate the Falcons need for a "franchise" player who they can market to their fans and Matt Ryan offers huge potential there.

All in all there is no use arguing and everyone is entitled to their opinions so I am not going to continue going back and forth in this thread but here is how I'd break it down right now for the Falcons with their top pick:

80% Quarterback
19% Jake Long
1% Darren McFadden

ATLDirtyBirds
12-21-2007, 09:34 PM
But the Falcons don't have Steve Hutchinson, Matt Birk and Bryant McKinnie.

Come to think of it, they don't have Kevin or Pat Williams on defense either.

The Falcons don't have the tools to run the ball like Minnesota or play defense like them. Apples and oranges.



Because you don't get franchise quarterbacks you build a team around in the second round. Don't underestimate the Falcons need for a "franchise" player who they can market to their fans and Matt Ryan offers huge potential there.

All in all there is no use arguing and everyone is entitled to their opinions so I am not going to continue going back and forth in this thread but here is how I'd break it down right now for the Falcons with their top pick:

80% Quarterback
19% Jake Long
1% Darren McFadden


The Vikings don't have someone like John Abraham who is always around the quaterback though. Not a LB like Michael Boley, or a shut down corner like DeAngelo Hall. They certainly have more talent, but with a good FA period, I don't think we'd be that far behind.

I'm not sure if Matt Ryan is marketable to anybody more then the average fan. I haven't seen a Falcons fan that has liked Ryan, and the fact that he said he doesn't want to be here attributes to that as well.

Yeah, it's pretty much moot at this point though, espically if we sign Marty.

scar988
12-21-2007, 09:34 PM
Because you don't get franchise quarterbacks you build a team around in the second round. Don't underestimate the Falcons need for a "franchise" player who they can market to their fans and Matt Ryan offers huge potential there.

All in all there is no use arguing and everyone is entitled to their opinions so I am not going to continue going back and forth in this thread but here is how I'd break it down right now for the Falcons with their top pick:

80% Quarterback
19% Jake Long
1% Darren McFadden
I find it funny how you predict that. you must really be predictign us to trade down too then. cause honestly, I can't see us taking a QB at #4 overall. since NONE are worth the pick. And yes we need a franchise player, but why can't we get a guy like Drew Brees (1st pick of 2nd round in 2001) instead of wasting the first rounder on another bust like Carr or Smith were.

scar988
12-21-2007, 09:35 PM
The Vikings don't have someone like John Abraham who is always around the quaterback though. Not a LB like Michael Boley, or a shut down corner like DeAngelo Hall. They certainly have more talent, but with a good FA period, I don't think we'd be that far behind.

I'm not sure if Matt Ryan is marketable to anybody more then the average fan. I haven't seen a Falcons fan that has liked Ryan, and the fact that he said he doesn't want to be here attributes to that as well.

Yeah, it's pretty much moot at this point though, espically if we sign Marty.

I agree. I think if we got Haynesworth in FA our DT's would be comparable to the Williams's/

Turtlepower
12-21-2007, 09:36 PM
The Miami Dolphins also chose to wait and get their franchise QB after the 1st. It has really done wonders for them.

Scott Wright
12-21-2007, 09:41 PM
And how did Drew Brees work out for San Diego, the team that drafted him?

I defy you to name me one 2nd round quarterback who has worked out for the team that drafted him in the last 15 years. I will be waiting.

scar988
12-21-2007, 09:41 PM
And how did Drew Brees work out for San Diego, the team that drafted him?

I defy you to name me one 2nd round quarterback who has worked out for the team that drafted him in the last 15 years. I will be waiting.

he actually worked out great for them, they were stupid enough to draft Rivers only 3 years after they drafted Brees.

619
12-21-2007, 09:42 PM
Colt Brennan will be different than all those other 2nd round QBs..

Turtlepower
12-21-2007, 09:45 PM
he actually worked out great for them, they were stupid enough to draft Rivers only 3 years after they drafted Brees.

Do you really want to wait 3 years for the Falcons to do anything? Because in those 3 years he did nothing.

Sniper
12-21-2007, 09:45 PM
And how did Drew Brees work out for San Diego, the team that drafted him?

I defy you to name me one 2nd round quarterback who has worked out for the team that drafted him in the last 15 years. I will be waiting.

Yeesh I looked up some of the very few 2nd round QBs just since 2000...it ain't pretty.

Turtlepower
12-21-2007, 09:45 PM
Yeesh I looked up some of the very few 2nd round QBs just since 2000...it ain't pretty.

Good luck with Kevin Kolb...

Sniper
12-21-2007, 09:46 PM
Good luck with Kevin Kolb...

***Realizes Kevin Kolb was picked in 2nd round***

FIND ME A ******* GUN!

ATLDirtyBirds
12-21-2007, 09:51 PM
Yeesh I looked up some of the very few 2nd round QBs just since 2000...it ain't pretty.


There's also been some real bad 1st rounders too... And those guys are making millions and millions...

scar988
12-21-2007, 09:51 PM
Do you really want to wait 3 years for the Falcons to do anything? Because in those 3 years he did nothing.

no, but I doubt that it's going to happen like that. we need the QB. we have a situation where we can build the team from everywhere but the QB because the OL is that horrible we would have another Houston situatiion.

Scott Wright
12-21-2007, 09:54 PM
I went through and looked it up.

Here is the list of quarterbacks who went in either the 2nd or 3rd round in the 15 years prior to the 2007 NFL Draft.

1992
Matt Blundin
Tony Sacca

1993
Billy Joe Hobert

1994
None

1995
Todd Collins
Kordell Stewart
Stoney Case
Eric Zeier

1996
Tony Banks
Bobby Hoying

1997
Jake Plummer

1998
Charlie Batch
Jonathan Quinn
Brian Griese

1999
Shaun King
Brock Huard

2000
Giovanni Carmazzi
Chris Redman

2001
Drew Brees
Quincy Carter
Marques Tuiasosopo

2002
Josh McCown

2003
Dave Ragone
Chris Simms

2004
Matt Schaub

2005
Charlie Frye
Andrew Walter
David Greene

2006
Kellen Clemens
Tarvaris Jackson
Charlie Whitehurst
Brodie Croyle

Not a single one of those players turned into a great quarterback for the team that drafted them and even if I give you Drew Brees that is just 1 out of 31.

So go ahead and wait for a quarterback in round two or three Falcon fans, you will have a 3% chance of landing a stud.

ATLDirtyBirds
12-21-2007, 09:58 PM
Or you know, we could pull a true winner like Joey Harrington, David Carr, Alex Smith, and watch them destroy our franchise.

scar988
12-21-2007, 09:59 PM
ok
3% chance of landing a stud. did you even consider that this draft has less QB talent in it than the 2002 draft? and we all know how that one turned out for QB's. I would rather not go QB this offseason and sign a guy for a few eyars AND THEN in 2009 get the QB for the future. I'd feel more comfortable with Tebow leading my team than Brohm or Woodson or ryan.

Scott Wright
12-21-2007, 10:02 PM
Or you know, we could pull a true winner like Joey Harrington, David Carr, Alex Smith, and watch them destroy our franchise.

Or you could get Drew Bledsoe, Steve McNair, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Vince Young, etc.

The numbers show you have a much better chance of getting a stud quarterback in round one than you do in round two or three.

Is it a crap shoot? Sure it is. The NFL Draft is a gamble, at every position. But statistically your chances of getting a top quarterback in round one are at least ten times what they are in rounds two and three.

Scott Wright
12-21-2007, 10:03 PM
I would rather not go QB this offseason and sign a guy for a few eyars AND THEN in 2009 get the QB for the future.

That's fine and dandy but the Falcons are going to address the quarterback position one way or another THIS offseason. Guaranteed. They will not be in the market for a quarterback in 2009 so you can take that out of the equation.

619
12-21-2007, 10:04 PM
Honestly QB in the first is the way to go for the Falcons franchise, you can fulfill your other important needs at great value in the 2nd-3rd round. A developmental QB in any of those rounds would hold you guys back just a bit. Im thinking Brian Brohm still for the Falcons, hes the safest pick of the big 3 and he does not have much of a bust factor. The Falcons cant afford to miss with this pick.

Turtlepower
12-21-2007, 10:05 PM
Or you know, we could pull a true winner like Joey Harrington, David Carr, Alex Smith, and watch them destroy our franchise.

Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, Ben Roethlisberger. There is realistically a 50% chance of a bust rate for a QB in the first round. But as Scott pointed out, Drew Brees is probably the only successful QB picked after the 1st round, but during the first day. Every player is a gamble, but as in all gambles, you want to pick the one who has the highest chance of succeeding and that is a QB in the first.

scar988
12-21-2007, 10:06 PM
Honestly QB in the first is the way to go for the Falcons franchise, you can fulfill your other important needs at great value in the 2nd-3rd round. A developmental QB in any of those rounds would hold you guys back just a bit. Im thinking Brian Brohm still for the Falcons, hes the safest pick of the big 3 and he does not have much of a bust factor.

and that's fine, but I Would rather us trade down if we are plannign on QB. pick up an extra 2nd and with our 3 2nd roudn picks go OT, OT and NT. but that's just me. I just don't think a QB is worth takign top 5. make us trade down to 10 and I'll go for a QB.

Turtlepower
12-21-2007, 10:06 PM
Or you could get Drew Bledsoe, Steve McNair, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Vince Young, etc.

The numbers show you have a much better chance of getting a stud quarterback in round one than you do in round two or three.

Is it a crap shoot? Sure it is. The NFL Draft is a gamble, at every position. But statistically your chances of getting a top quarterback in round one are at least ten times what they are in rounds two and three.

Haha, didn't mean to post the exact same thing you did. Oh well, I guess it just reinforces the point that first round QB busts are just more notable because of where they are taken, but they are less likely.

Turtlepower
12-21-2007, 10:08 PM
and that's fine, but I Would rather us trade down if we are plannign on QB. pick up an extra 2nd and with our 3 2nd roudn picks go OT, OT and NT. but that's just me. I just don't think a QB is worth takign top 5. make us trade down to 10 and I'll go for a QB.

Who would want to trade up in this draft? This is a huge draft of depth with most prospects being a hair's length away from each other. Unless some there are guys who really stand out in the Senior Bowl and the Combine to a huge extent (which I doubt), trading down is very unlikely.

619
12-21-2007, 10:08 PM
and that's fine, but I Would rather us trade down if we are plannign on QB. pick up an extra 2nd and with our 3 2nd roudn picks go OT, OT and NT. but that's just me. I just don't think a QB is worth takign top 5. make us trade down to 10 and I'll go for a QB.

Very difficult to do so unless some team is really enamored with a player still on the board like Mcfadden or Jake Long for example.

scar988
12-21-2007, 10:10 PM
Or you could get Drew Bledsoe, Steve McNair, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Vince Young, etc.

The numbers show you have a much better chance of getting a stud quarterback in round one than you do in round two or three.

Is it a crap shoot? Sure it is. The NFL Draft is a gamble, at every position. But statistically your chances of getting a top quarterback in round one are at least ten times what they are in rounds two and three.

I agree with the odds, but at the same time, sometimes you eed to gamble. at worst we can trade up to the mid first with our 2nds and get a QB like Brohm there if he slip-s.

619
12-21-2007, 10:12 PM
I agree with the odds, but at the same time, sometimes you eed to gamble. at worst we can trade up to the mid first with our 2nds and get a QB like Brohm there if he slip-s.

Its not as easy as it seems though. If it were more teams would being doing that while saving money and still taking the player they wanted all along.

DraftMichaelHuff
12-21-2007, 10:13 PM
What about the Browns last year? That is EXACTLY what i want us to do. If Scott wants to give a QB to the falcons its fine i guess. But come draft day i honestly believe what the Browns did last year was the most effective way to draft when building a team.

ATL starts in the trenches with Long at #3 and then if it looks like top 3 qb will fall to #34 grab him then. IF not why not trade back into the 20's and get a top 3 guy then. But as of now i wouldnt be surprise if one of these top 3 guys fall to round 2

Fact is Joey Harrington David Carr Alex Smith have all be drafted to bad teams with horrible O Lines and turned out bad. Most of the 1st round success stories (and granted there are more of them) have been somewhat good value where they were taken AND have all gone into better O line situations than Matt RYan at #3 would be comming into.

If Atlanta had an offensive line like the Minnesota Vikings i actually feel confident saying QB and RB wouldnt be a real high need at all because Harringon/Redmen/Byron would have done an adequate QB-ing job behind Hutch Mckinnie and Birk and Norwood an Dunn would have done a great job running.

You build your line to an adequate (not an all pro) but an adequate survivable level then grab you QB.

Tell me what is better, Joey Harrington getting sacked or Matt Ryan getting sacked? Call me crazy but i dont see a difference not a 60 mil difference. Imagine if the falcons drafted Matt Ryan at #3 and then Brian Brohm or Andre Woodson is there at #34. Another slap in the face for the Franchise

scar988
12-21-2007, 10:14 PM
Its not as easy as it seems though. If it were more teams would being doing that while saving money and still taking the player they wanted all along.

I know this. but most teams don't have a high 2nd and a mid 2nd to go along with their high first. imagine a team going with an OT in the top 5 and then trading back into the first for a QB...

oh wait, it happened last year.

scar988
12-21-2007, 10:16 PM
What about the Browns last year? That is EXACTLY what i want us to do. If Scott wants to give a QB to the falcons its fine i guess. But come draft day i honestly believe what the Browns did last year was the most effective way to draft when building a team.

ATL starts in the trenches with Long at #3 and then if it looks like top # 3 will fall to #34 grab him then. IF not why not trade back into the 20's and get a top 3 guy then. But as of now i wouldnt be surprise if one of these top 3 guys fall to round 2

Fact is Joey Harrington David Carr Alex Smith have all be drafted to bad teams with horrible O Lines and turned out bad. If Atlanta had an offensive line like the Minnesota Vikings i actually feel confident saying QB and RB wouldnt be a real high need at all because Harringon/Redmen/Byron would have done an adequate QB-ing job behind Hutch Mckinnie and Birk and Norwood an Dunn would have done a great job running.

You build your line to an adequate (not an all pro) but an adequate survivable level then grab you QB.

Tell me what is better, Joey Harrington getting sacked or Matt Ryan getting sacked? Call me crazy but i dont see a difference not a 60 mil difference. Imagine if the falcons drafted Matt Ryan at #3 and then Brian Brohm or Andre Woodson is there at #34. Another slap in the face for the Franchise

exactly, and with a guy like Long at LT, Blalock at LG, and McClure at C, the blind side will at least be solid. at RG and RT we could still use help but that's what FA is for.

619
12-21-2007, 10:16 PM
What about the Browns last year? That is EXACTLY what i want us to do. If Scott wants to give a QB to the falcons its fine i guess. But come draft day i honestly believe what the Browns did last year was the most effective way to draft when building a team.

ATL starts in the trenches with Long at #3 and then if it looks like top # 3 will fall to #34 grab him then. IF not why not trade back into the 20's and get a top 3 guy then. But as of now i wouldnt be surprise if one of these top 3 guys fall to round 2

Fact is Joey Harrington David Carr Alex Smith have all be drafted to bad teams with horrible O Lines and turned out bad. If Atlanta had an offensive line like the Minnesota Vikings i actually feel confident saying QB and RB wouldnt be a real high need at all because Harringon/Redmen/Byron would have done an adequate QB-ing job behind Hutch Mckinnie and Birk and Norwood an Dunn would have done a great job running.

You build your line to an adequate (not an all pro) but an adequate survivable level then grab you QB.

Tell me what is better, Joey Harrington getting sacked or Matt Ryan getting sacked? Call me crazy but i dont see a difference not a 60 mil difference. Imagine if the falcons drafted Matt Ryan at #3 and then Brian Brohm or Andre Woodson is there at #34. Another slap in the face for the Franchise

There is NO way one of the top 3 QBs falls into round 2, maybe the latter part of the first round but not round 2.

Windy
12-21-2007, 10:16 PM
My opinion, even as a PR issue, I could see Atlanta going QB. Get Vick out of the media's mind. That's all they talk about when it relates to anything about the team. They need a "face of the franchise" player. As good as Jake Long is, he doesn't bring that image.

Turtlepower
12-21-2007, 10:17 PM
What about the Browns last year? That is EXACTLY what i want us to do. If Scott wants to give a QB to the falcons its fine i guess. But come draft day i honestly believe what the Browns did last year was the most effective way to draft when building a team.

ATL starts in the trenches with Long at #3 and then if it looks like top # 3 will fall to #34 grab him then. IF not why not trade back into the 20's and get a top 3 guy then. But as of now i wouldnt be surprise if one of these top 3 guys fall to round 2

Fact is Joey Harrington David Carr Alex Smith have all be drafted to bad teams with horrible O Lines and turned out bad. If Atlanta had an offensive line like the Minnesota Vikings i actually feel confident saying QB and RB wouldnt be a real high need at all because Harringon/Redmen/Byron would have done an adequate QB-ing job behind Hutch Mckinnie and Birk and Norwood an Dunn would have done a great job running.

You build your line to an adequate (not an all pro) but an adequate survivable level then grab you QB.

Tell me what is better, Joey Harrington getting sacked or Matt Ryan getting sacked? Call me crazy but i dont see a difference not a 60 mil difference. Imagine if the falcons drafted Matt Ryan at #3 and then Brian Brohm or Andre Woodson is there at #34. Another slap in the face for the Franchise

Except way too many teams are looking for a QB this year. Plus it is not like the Browns were planning on trading up. They were content with Charlie Frye. Also, Andre Woodson is taking a landslide as a NFL prospect and might end up as the 4th or 5th ranked QB prospect in this draft when all is said and done.

Something else to add, there is so much o-line depth in this draft that they should be able to get a starter in the second round.

Turtlepower
12-21-2007, 10:19 PM
My opinion, even as a PR issue, I could see Atlanta going QB. Get Vick out of the media's mind. That's all they talk about when it relates to anything about the team. They need a "face of the franchise" player. As good as Jake Long is, he doesn't bring that image.

Remember what happened as soon as the Dolphins passed on Quinn to draft Ginn? All hell broke loose and even though it might be a stretch, how demoralizing is it to a team when all of their fans boo them. It could really carry over to the season and could be a partial reason for the Dolphins woeful season. You never know.

scar988
12-21-2007, 10:21 PM
My opinion, even as a PR issue, I could see Atlanta going QB. Get Vick out of the media's mind. That's all they talk about when it relates to anything about the team. They need a "face of the franchise" player. As good as Jake Long is, he doesn't bring that image.

no but taking long woudl be like takign Joe Thomas last year. and then taking Quinn was the PR move. we woudl have the same situation with more likely hood for one to slip to the mid 1st into trade up range for us because of our 2nds. imagine us takign Long and then later on trading up for Brohm

ATLDirtyBirds
12-21-2007, 10:25 PM
Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, Ben Roethlisberger. There is realistically a 50% chance of a bust rate for a QB in the first round. But as Scott pointed out, Drew Brees is probably the only successful QB picked after the 1st round, but during the first day. Every player is a gamble, but as in all gambles, you want to pick the one who has the highest chance of succeeding and that is a QB in the first.



Difference? They are all better prospects then Ryan, IMO.


Believe me, if there was someone who was at the prospect level of someone like Palmer, I'd be all for it. I just don't think anyone is, or will turn out nearly as good as he did.

Turtlepower
12-21-2007, 10:38 PM
Difference? They are all better prospects then Ryan, IMO.


Believe me, if there was someone who was at the prospect level of someone like Palmer, I'd be all for it. I just don't think anyone is, or will turn out nearly as good as he did.

As a prospect, I see Matt Ryan is ahead of Ben Roethlisberger, Alex Smith, and Byron Leftwich. I could even make a case that he is better than Joey Harrington or Aaron Rodgers. I personally like Brian Brohm more than Matt Ryan, so I feel he should be the choice, but my point is that Matt Ryan might not be the best QB prospect ever, but he is much better than many other QB prospects that other teams drafted in the first.

packer_pat_4
12-21-2007, 11:39 PM
The Browns didnt plan on taking Quinn. It was abnormal, shocking, and surprising to see him fall, so they pulled the trigger. No team would ever plan on that happening. My God, that would be dumb.
The Falcons are going to be sitting there with three closely rated QB's to choose from. They will most liekly have the pleasure of evaluating them all and choosing which one they like.
Now, you are suggesting that the Falcons should take a Jake Long, and pray one of the three is there later in the draft, or should just magically make a trade with a team to go and get him? Thats not logical, come on Falcons fans.

49ersfan_87
12-22-2007, 12:34 AM
Disagree with the 49ers taking a WR. Our offensive problems are:

Offensive Coordinator
QB
OL
WR

You cant draft a OC and id rather get a prospect like Alex Brink in the 3rd or 4th to serve as competition. And since the 49ers have their LT of the future in Staley, Id like the 49ers to draft a C. I don't know if any good centers will be available at the 49ers pick though..

Turtlepower
12-22-2007, 01:02 AM
Disagree with the 49ers taking a WR. Our offensive problems are:

Offensive Coordinator
QB
OL
WR

You cant draft a OC and id rather get a prospect like Alex Brink in the 3rd or 4th to serve as competition. And since the 49ers have their LT of the future in Staley, Id like the 49ers to draft a C. I don't know if any good centers will be available at the 49ers pick though..

I sort of disregarded everything you originally said when you stated you wanted the 49ers to draft Alex Brink in th 3rd or 4th round.

49ersfan_87
12-22-2007, 01:10 AM
I sort of disregarded everything you originally said when you stated you wanted the 49ers to draft Alex Brink in th 3rd or 4th round.

Why do you feel that way?

Turtlepower
12-22-2007, 01:15 AM
Why do you feel that way?

Because Alex Brink is not even one of the better QBs in the PAC-10, let alone the country. He is slow, has a weak arm, and had a huge drop off from his junior season after his star receiver graduated. He would be lucky to be playing in the AFL let alone the NFL.

49ersfan_87
12-22-2007, 01:19 AM
Because Alex Brink is not even one of the better QBs in the PAC-10, let alone the country. He is slow, has a weak arm, and had a huge drop off from his junior season after his star receiver graduated. He would be lucky to be playing in the AFL let alone the NFL.

Well, my main point is id like the 49ers to draft an offensive lineman in the 1st, and then get a QB in the 2nd day, 3rd-4th round, whether its Brink or someone else.

I disagree with taking a WR unless hes the BPA. I think a more consistent returner is a bigger need than WR, and id rather draft a returner in the 2nd day.

Turtlepower
12-22-2007, 01:27 AM
Well, my main point is id like the 49ers to draft an offensive lineman in the 1st, and then get a QB in the 2nd day, 3rd-4th round, whether its Brink or someone else.

I disagree with taking a WR unless hes the BPA. I think a more consistent returner is a bigger need than WR, and id rather draft a returner in the 2nd day.

The problem that comes along at pick 30 is that you either get the 5th or 6th best OT or you reach for a QB because the big 3 have fallen. I think the 49ers best options there are either OG, WR, or a NT, but I agree with you that a WR can be had later, so if it was my pick, I would personally go with Dre Moore. So, really WR isn't that bad of an option just because there aren't many options.

yourfavestoner
12-22-2007, 05:32 AM
I actually agree with the Falcons fans. I think you're going to start seeing a trend develop in the NFL, and the model for it is the Cleveland Browns. Both franchise quarterback and tackle were huge needs for them. However, they knew that a rookie quarterback would likely get decimated behind their line, so they solidified it by selecting Joe Thomas instead of reaching on Brady Quinn with the third pick.

Just watch...I think the days of taking a quarterback just for the sake of taking a quarterback are over - especially if that QB isn't an absolute can't miss prospect. None of the quarterbacks in this draft is that type of player.

AND STOP GIVING THE JAGUARS MARIO MANNINGHAM. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

ATLDirtyBirds
12-22-2007, 07:51 AM
As a prospect, I see Matt Ryan is ahead of Ben Roethlisberger, Alex Smith, and Byron Leftwich. I could even make a case that he is better than Joey Harrington or Aaron Rodgers. I personally like Brian Brohm more than Matt Ryan, so I feel he should be the choice, but my point is that Matt Ryan might not be the best QB prospect ever, but he is much better than many other QB prospects that other teams drafted in the first.


Well then, this is where we disagree. Matt Ryan looks like nothing much to me. He has a poor arm, and will force the ball far too much, and will throw a bunch of INTs. Just not things that translate into being a franchise QB.

Iamcanadian
12-22-2007, 09:05 AM
ok
3% chance of landing a stud. did you even consider that this draft has less QB talent in it than the 2002 draft? and we all know how that one turned out for QB's. I would rather not go QB this offseason and sign a guy for a few eyars AND THEN in 2009 get the QB for the future. I'd feel more comfortable with Tebow leading my team than Brohm or Woodson or ryan.

That is just your opinion not the scouts or GM's and they not you will make the pick. The fact is Bletso, the scouting service used by NFL teams ranks 2 of these QB's in their top 10 so your assessment that this draft has less QB talent in it than the 2002 draft is not substantiated by the facts.

Iamcanadian
12-22-2007, 09:22 AM
I actually agree with the Falcons fans. I think you're going to start seeing a trend develop in the NFL, and the model for it is the Cleveland Browns. Both franchise quarterback and tackle were huge needs for them. However, they knew that a rookie quarterback would likely get decimated behind their line, so they solidified it by selecting Joe Thomas instead of reaching on Brady Quinn with the third pick.

Just watch...I think the days of taking a quarterback just for the sake of taking a quarterback are over - especially if that QB isn't an absolute can't miss prospect. None of the quarterbacks in this draft is that type of player.

AND STOP GIVING THE JAGUARS MARIO MANNINGHAM. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

You assessment is weak, NFL GM's will continue to draft QB's in the ton 5 picks if one is rated a top 5 talent. Paying any other position some 60 million dollars completely recks a team's cap structure and in essence destroys any chance they have to compete for the Super Bowl. Quinn did not approach a top 5 talent and that is the reason he dropped.
Not only is it foolish for a team to pay a non QB 60 million dollars in the cap era, it is still a fact that the QB position is the most important position on a football team and getting one is the dream of all teams. There is no such thing as a can't miss player at any position, the adjustment to pro ball is immense and some simply cannot make the adjustment.
50% of QB's drafted in round 1 are successful and take their teams to the playoffs, so GM's will continue to draft QB's not only with the 1st overall pick but with any pick in the 1st round if they need one.
Again, saying none of the QB's in this draft aren't top prospects simply isn't true. Bletso, the scouting service used by NFL teams indicates that Ryan and Brohm are top QB's, and I'll take their assessment over yours.

Iamcanadian
12-22-2007, 09:34 AM
I know this. but most teams don't have a high 2nd and a mid 2nd to go along with their high first. imagine a team going with an OT in the top 5 and then trading back into the first for a QB...

oh wait, it happened last year.

And what has Quinn proven = nothing and what did Gallery do for Oakland at OT with the 2nd pick = nothing. Every position is a crapshoot, they fail at OT just as often as they fail at QB. Mike Williams, Gross, Gallery, and Leonard Davis were all top 10 picks to play LT. None play that position today if they are even still in the league.
However, if you strike it rich with a QB, your team is a serious threat to make the playoffs every year for the next decade, if you strike it rich with an OT, you can still be an average team.

Iamcanadian
12-22-2007, 09:46 AM
My opinion, even as a PR issue, I could see Atlanta going QB. Get Vick out of the media's mind. That's all they talk about when it relates to anything about the team. They need a "face of the franchise" player. As good as Jake Long is, he doesn't bring that image.

This is the part of the draft that hard core fans don't want to think about. That football is entertainment business and that requires a name type player to attract the average fan. Atlanta is now tied to their QB position with Vick talk all the rage. To sell tickets to the average fan, Atlanta needs a complete new focus for the team at the QB position. OT's don't attract casual fans, QB's do. Ryan, if he gets past Miami, will be Atlanta's pick. You have to remember that Miami has a 2nd round QB leading them and they could go QB as well, as Parcells understands clearly how you build a winner and may well beat Atlanta to Ryan.

ATLDirtyBirds
12-22-2007, 09:57 AM
You assessment is weak, NFL GM's will continue to draft QB's in the ton 5 picks if one is rated a top 5 talent. Paying any other position some 60 million dollars completely recks a team's cap structure and in essence destroys any chance they have to compete for the Super Bowl. Quinn did not approach a top 5 talent and that is the reason he dropped.
Not only is it foolish for a team to pay a non QB 60 million dollars in the cap era, it is still a fact that the QB position is the most important position on a football team and getting one is the dream of all teams. There is no such thing as a can't miss player at any position, the adjustment to pro ball is immense and some simply cannot make the adjustment.
50% of QB's drafted in round 1 are successful and take their teams to the playoffs, so GM's will continue to draft QB's not only with the 1st overall pick but with any pick in the 1st round if they need one.
Again, saying none of the QB's in this draft aren't top prospects simply isn't true. Bletso, the scouting service used by NFL teams indicates that Ryan and Brohm are top QB's, and I'll take their assessment over yours.



Matt Ryan has 18 INTS... in college football. He has just 3 games in which he didn't throw an INT. How exactly is that going to translate into the NFL?

Iamcanadian
12-22-2007, 10:16 AM
Matt Ryan has 18 INTS... in college football. He has just 3 games in which he didn't throw an INT. How exactly is that going to translate into the NFL?

Personally, I might agree with you that Ryan has huge question marks. But in the end, I'm not a NFL scout and no team will consult me about the draft.
Personally I like Woodson or even Brennan a lot more than Ryan and Brohm who the scouts like. However, I don't get to interview them, work them out in practice or test their ability to assess defenses, so I have no choice but to accept the scouts assessment.
You have to remember it is early in the scouting process. The post season will give the scouts and GM's a much closer look at these players and rankings can change dramatically as they often do.
I am really addressing drafting a QB in the top 5 if one is finally given a top 5 talent rating which is yet to be determined. If one of these 4 QB's ends up with a top 5 talent rating, both Atlanta and Miami will take a very close look at him for a # of reasons I mentioned in my previous posts and one of these teams will draft that top 5 talented QB with Miami the most likely team. Atlanta would be my second choice.

Iamcanadian
12-22-2007, 10:19 AM
Or you could get Drew Bledsoe, Steve McNair, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Vince Young, etc.

The numbers show you have a much better chance of getting a stud quarterback in round one than you do in round two or three.

Is it a crap shoot? Sure it is. The NFL Draft is a gamble, at every position. But statistically your chances of getting a top quarterback in round one are at least ten times what they are in rounds two and three.

So tell me Scott, why would Miami not draft Ryan instead of depending on Beck, a second rounder to develop. I don't think you can leave Miami out of the equation either especially with Parcells running the show.

keylime_5
12-22-2007, 10:35 AM
Breaston is only the Big 10's career leader in return yardage. Do you think before you hop on Ginn's knob all the time?

Ginn is averaging a mighty 0.1 ypr more on kick returns and 0.2 more on PR. MAN WAS HE WORTH THE #9 PICK!

Breaston '06 at UM: 29 PR 332 yards 11.45 yards 1 TD. 21 KR 467 yards 22.24 ypr 0 TD
Ginn '06 season at OSU: 24 PR 266 yards 11.08 yards 1 TD. 18 KR 440 yards 24.44 yards 1 TD

So um yeah Breason outdid Ginn on punts by .37 yards per and Ginn won the KR by 2.20 yards. Good thing Breaston's stats "couldn't hold a candle" to Ted Ginn's. Think before speaking ok? kthxbai!

Breaston played four years, Ginn only about 3. Breaston never was/is as good as Ginn at returning kicks, don't go into Michigan denial. Ginn's and Breaston's numbers this year are pretty much the same, GInn's being barely better, but you guys act like Breaston is having a super awesome year and Ginn is having a super terrible one when in fact he's not. Ginn was the #9 overall pick because he can potentially be a gamebreaking playmaker wide receiver while Steve is a return man and has basically no shot of being anything more than another Dante Hall. Ginn will be a player similar to Joey Galloway.

Cashmoney
12-22-2007, 11:09 AM
I actually agree with the Falcons fans. I think you're going to start seeing a trend develop in the NFL, and the model for it is the Cleveland Browns. Both franchise quarterback and tackle were huge needs for them. However, they knew that a rookie quarterback would likely get decimated behind their line, so they solidified it by selecting Joe Thomas instead of reaching on Brady Quinn with the third pick.

Just watch...I think the days of taking a quarterback just for the sake of taking a quarterback are over - especially if that QB isn't an absolute can't miss prospect. None of the quarterbacks in this draft is that type of player.

AND STOP GIVING THE JAGUARS MARIO MANNINGHAM. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

didn't you "retire"?

BamaFalcon59
12-22-2007, 12:10 PM
All of the falcons fans want Jake Long and their main reason is we can get a QB in the secound round. i have a question. Do you not think that you could get an OT in the second round as well? This is a deep draft for OT's as well, and from what I've seen of Jake Long nothing about him screams elite LT to me.

Value of QB in round 2 > Value of LT in round 2
Value of Jake Long in round 1 > Value of Matt Ryan in round 1

BamaFalcon59
12-22-2007, 12:12 PM
Excellent point. One of the strengths of this draft will be offensive tackles in the late first round or early second round. Sam Baker, Chris Williams, Tony Hills, Oniel Cousins, Carl Nicks, etc.

It's just like the Dolphins last year, which combo would you rather have: Brady Quinn and Sidney Rice or Ted Ginn and John Beck? Give me option A.

Falcon fans, which duo would you rather have:

Matt Ryan and Chris Williams

or

Jake Long and Joe Flacco

Flacco? No. But that was obviously put out there by you to make it less attractive. I'd say...

Matt Ryan and Chris Williams

or

Jake Long and Colt Brennan/ Chad Henne

I'll take option B. Ryan screams bust, especially behind Renardo Foster and a horrible offensive line.

BamaFalcon59
12-22-2007, 12:14 PM
Absolutely, no question about it.

You said it yourself, with all of their needs they can't afford to address one of the few positions where they are relatively solid. Running back isn't the Falcons Top 5 needs.

I can say with confidence you are wrong on everything in this post.

We would take McFadden

We are not close to solid at RB

It is a top 5 need (QB, LT, NT, RB, S).

BamaFalcon59
12-22-2007, 12:15 PM
For the last 5+ years the Falcons have had one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL. The reason they struggled this year was the offensive line, the change in scheme and the utter lack of a passing game. You address the issues under center and up front and the combo of Dunn and Norwood is more than adequate. Are either of them LaDainian Tomlinson or Adrian Peterson? No. But running back is the least of Atlanta's concerns.

EDIT: I don't blame Atlanta fans for wanting McFadden, he's a terrific talent and the best player in the draft, but he isn't going to be a Falcon. In fact, if they aren't choosing higher than #4 he won't be available to them anyway.

No they are not. It might be torture, but watch the Falcons one day. Warrick Dunn is not a capable runner. Norwood is injury prone.

BamaFalcon59
12-22-2007, 12:15 PM
Care to explain that? Dunn at 3.1 YPC, and Jerious gets hurt when he has more then 10 carries a game.

Completely right.

BamaFalcon59
12-22-2007, 12:17 PM
That rushing attack was also highly attributed to Michael Vick. Watching games will let you know that Warrick is done. He had surgery in the offseason, and was hampered by injuries. Isn't quick or shifty anymore, and at 180, he needs to be. I'm not going to buy into the it's the O-Line fault either. Our offense line isn't very good, no doubt. We aren't all that bad at run blocking. When Jerious has stepped in though, he's done just fine, but he can't handle the load.

You really don't think Atlanta will take a look and see what a team like the Vikings can do with a potent rushing attack in the weak NFC? And we will take a QB who isn't at all worth the #4 selection, and will just cripple the franchise because he is making top 5 money, and is making the same terrible mistakes he made in college?

Yes sir. Our actual running game was never as good as advertized. Michael Vick inflated the stats, and he even opened up the inside.

BamaFalcon59
12-22-2007, 12:26 PM
You assessment is weak, NFL GM's will continue to draft QB's in the ton 5 picks if one is rated a top 5 talent. .

Therein lies the problem.

BamaFalcon59
12-22-2007, 12:32 PM
But the Falcons don't have Steve Hutchinson, Matt Birk and Bryant McKinnie.

Come to think of it, they don't have Kevin or Pat Williams on defense either.

The Falcons don't have the tools to run the ball like Minnesota or play defense like them. Apples and oranges.



Because you don't get franchise quarterbacks you build a team around in the second round. Don't underestimate the Falcons need for a "franchise" player who they can market to their fans and Matt Ryan offers huge potential there.

All in all there is no use arguing and everyone is entitled to their opinions so I am not going to continue going back and forth in this thread but here is how I'd break it down right now for the Falcons with their top pick:

80% Quarterback
19% Jake Long
1% Darren McFadden

The Vikings didn't have Michael Boley, John Abraham, DeAngelo Hall, Roddy White, and a ton of other young talent (on defense alone Chris Houston, Jamaal Anderson, Jimmy Williams, Jonathan Babineaux). We might be horrible but we do have some building blocks. The defense has played pretty well this year. Don't look at points allowed, we've had at least 5 touchdowns given directly on turnovers, others handed in the redzone, tons of 3 and outs, etc..

They might have had slightly more talent but we have talent as well, we just lack a few key pieces on offense. QB is among them, but runningback and offensive tackle are just as big of needs.

Cashmoney
12-22-2007, 12:39 PM
You do know you can quote more than one time in a reply right?

BamaFalcon59
12-22-2007, 12:41 PM
Yaaah, was just reading through the thread and they jsut added up.

scar988
12-22-2007, 12:55 PM
That is just your opinion not the scouts or GM's and they not you will make the pick. The fact is Bletso, the scouting service used by NFL teams ranks 2 of these QB's in their top 10 so your assessment that this draft has less QB talent in it than the 2002 draft is not substantiated by the facts.

oh really? cause BLESTO also rated Leftwich and Carr as top 5 guys back in 2002. Look how that turned out. No QB is a top 5 player this year. none are top 10 either.

scar988
12-22-2007, 12:56 PM
I can say with confidence you are wrong on everything in this post.

We would take McFadden

We are not close to solid at RB

It is a top 5 need (QB, LT, NT, RB, S).switch S to MLB and I'll agree.

Scott Wright
12-22-2007, 12:56 PM
Matt Ryan has 18 INTS... in college football. He has just 3 games in which he didn't throw an INT. How exactly is that going to translate into the NFL?

That is a little misleading. He didn't have anybody to throw to and had to try and make things happen. Sure he made mistakes but the stats don't tell the whole story there.

scar988
12-22-2007, 12:59 PM
Well then, this is where we disagree. Matt Ryan looks like nothing much to me. He has a poor arm, and will force the ball far too much, and will throw a bunch of INTs. Just not things that translate into being a franchise QB.exactly, when I see Ryan I see David Carr. I also dont' see the arm to go deep at all. his arem is way too weak.

skinzzfan25
12-22-2007, 12:59 PM
Still loving the Calais pick.

Carter - Montgomery - Golston/Griffen - Campbell

That would be nasty :)

Cashmoney
12-22-2007, 12:59 PM
Colt Brennan threw 14 INTs and he didnt even play the whole season. and I know its a pass happy offense but still....

scar988
12-22-2007, 01:00 PM
That is a little misleading. He didn't have anybody to throw to and had to try and make things happen. Sure he made mistakes but the stats don't tell the whole story there.

he still isn't a great decision maker and tries to force too many throws. we already have that in HArrington.

scar988
12-22-2007, 01:00 PM
Colt Brennan threw 14 INTs and he didnt even play the whole season. and I know its a pass happy offense but still....Brennan also is a 2nd rounder.

Cashmoney
12-22-2007, 01:03 PM
Brennan also is a 2nd rounder.

I know, Im just saying that because i forget who but one or two of the falcons fans were arguing that they would easily take brennan and long over Ryan and williams, when really brennan and ryan seem pretty similar to me.

scar988
12-22-2007, 01:12 PM
I know, Im just saying that because i forget who but one or two of the falcons fans were arguing that they would easily take brennan and long over Ryan and williams, when really brennan and ryan seem pretty similar to me.

that's the point. I'm sayin I would rather have Brennan and Long because Brennan is slightly better than Ryan IMO and Long is miles ahead of Williams.

Flyboy
12-22-2007, 01:13 PM
Atlanta should sign J.P. Losman. Just throwing it out there.

scar988
12-22-2007, 01:16 PM
Atlanta should sign J.P. Losman. Just throwing it out there.

I wouldn't mind it. He;'s not a bad QB, and he could start at least a year or 2 until our draft pick starts, that, OR he would be like Brees (4 years out of college, then explode with new team.) but he is worth takign a shot on.

BamaFalcon59
12-22-2007, 01:34 PM
I wouldn't mind it. He;'s not a bad QB, and he could start at least a year or 2 until our draft pick starts, that, OR he would be like Brees (4 years out of college, then explode with new team.) but he is worth takign a shot on.
I agree.

(10 characters minimum)

Thread Killer
12-23-2007, 04:35 PM
I went through and looked it up.

Here is the list of quarterbacks who went in either the 2nd or 3rd round in the 15 years prior to the 2007 NFL Draft.

1992
Matt Blundin
Tony Sacca

1993
Billy Joe Hobert

1994
None

1995
Todd Collins
Kordell Stewart
Stoney Case
Eric Zeier

1996
Tony Banks
Bobby Hoying

1997
Jake Plummer

1998
Charlie Batch
Jonathan Quinn
Brian Griese

1999
Shaun King
Brock Huard

2000
Giovanni Carmazzi
Chris Redman

2001
Drew Brees
Quincy Carter
Marques Tuiasosopo

2002
Josh McCown

2003
Dave Ragone
Chris Simms

2004
Matt Schaub

2005
Charlie Frye
Andrew Walter
David Greene

2006
Kellen Clemens
Tarvaris Jackson
Charlie Whitehurst
Brodie Croyle

Not a single one of those players turned into a great quarterback for the team that drafted them and even if I give you Drew Brees that is just 1 out of 31.

So go ahead and wait for a quarterback in round two or three Falcon fans, you will have a 3% chance of landing a stud.

Quite frankly, I can't help but to think that this year's so-called top 3 QBs need to join these guys outside of the 1st round.

frisby213
12-23-2007, 05:14 PM
Not a single one of those players turned into a great quarterback for the team that drafted them and even if I give you Drew Brees that is just 1 out of 31.

So go ahead and wait for a quarterback in round two or three Falcon fans, you will have a 3% chance of landing a stud.

This is one of the stupidest things I've seen posted on these boards. Are you HONESTLY trying to turn the NFL Draft into a game of statistics?

By that kind of logic, every player's fate is predetermined, and it's simply a crap-shoot at picking the right one. There isn't some kind of "percent chance" of picking a stud. And yes, OBVIOUSLY, the odds of getting a good player are higher in earlier rounds because IF THEY WEREN'T POTENTIALLY GOOD PLAYERS, THEY WOULDN'T BE GOING IN THE FIRST ROUND.

I mean really, what are you even trying to say, Scott? Brett Favre was a 2nd rounder. How'd that turn out? Brady went in, what, the 6th? Romo was undrafted. Yes, if you draft a QB in round 1, the ASSUMPTION is that he'll be better than one drafted later since, well, he was drafted before the other. But that has no impact on how well a player does.

Peyton Manning may have been an awful bust had San Diego drafted him #2. Alex Smith may have been awesome if he fell a few spots. Everything depends on what actually happens, not some crap like what round a QB was drafted in.




PS: Give me Long/Brennan over Ryan/some 2nd round LT any day of the week.

Rich Jr
12-23-2007, 05:42 PM
I wouldn't mind it. He;'s not a bad QB, and he could start at least a year or 2 until our draft pick starts, that, OR he would be like Brees (4 years out of college, then explode with new team.) but he is worth takign a shot on.Brees was a pro bowl QB before leaving San Diego.

Scott Wright
12-23-2007, 06:38 PM
This is one of the stupidest things I've seen posted on these boards. Are you HONESTLY trying to turn the NFL Draft into a game of statistics?

By that kind of logic, every player's fate is predetermined, and it's simply a crap-shoot at picking the right one. There isn't some kind of "percent chance" of picking a stud. And yes, OBVIOUSLY, the odds of getting a good player are higher in earlier rounds because IF THEY WEREN'T POTENTIALLY GOOD PLAYERS, THEY WOULDN'T BE GOING IN THE FIRST ROUND.

I mean really, what are you even trying to say, Scott? Brett Favre was a 2nd rounder. How'd that turn out? Brady went in, what, the 6th? Romo was undrafted. Yes, if you draft a QB in round 1, the ASSUMPTION is that he'll be better than one drafted later since, well, he was drafted before the other. But that has no impact on how well a player does.

Peyton Manning may have been an awful bust had San Diego drafted him #2. Alex Smith may have been awesome if he fell a few spots. Everything depends on what actually happens, not some crap like what round a QB was drafted in.




PS: Give me Long/Brennan over Ryan/some 2nd round LT any day of the week.

The numbers don't lie, the odds of getting a stud signal caller in round two or three are extremely slim. Are first rounders a sure thing? Absolutely not. But as I have proven the chances of getting one of the first round are much, much, much better.

Forenci
12-24-2007, 02:40 AM
and that's fine, but I Would rather us trade down if we are plannign on QB. pick up an extra 2nd and with our 3 2nd roudn picks go OT, OT and NT. but that's just me. I just don't think a QB is worth takign top 5. make us trade down to 10 and I'll go for a QB.

I think there is something you're forgetting: just because you want it to happen, doesn't mean it will. Just because you don't like Matt Ryan doesn't mean your team won't take him. Scott calls it a 'mock draft' for a reason because he simulates who he thinks the team will take in the Draft - not who he wants them to take. I tend to agree that the Falcons will take Ryan, regardless of your personal opinion of him.

I'd also like to ask you, exactly how many games have you watched Matt Ryan play in? Not just highlights or 'lowlights'), but legitimate from beginning to end games? A lot? If so, then perhaps your opinion is valid about him.

I had a chance to watch Ryan several times this year and he certainly doesn't have a 'weak arm' by any stretch of the imagination. Does he have a great deep ball like Carson Palmer or Peyton Manning? No, but he has passable arm strength. He's no Chad Pennington, that's for sure.

As for the INT's, those could be as Scott mentioned, a product of having a lack of weapons. If I'm not mistaken Callendar (a RB) is the leading receiver on that team. Which might show you just how much he lacks good receivers.

So just take it easy and perhaps think to yourself, "Well, just because I love Colt Brennan and Jake Long it doesn't mean that the GM of the Falcons feels the same way".

gobucks
12-24-2007, 07:58 AM
Even as an OSU homer, I'm a little surprised by the Laurinaitis pick. He's not quite AJ Hawk in both talent or playmaking ability, so I'm not sure he's worthy of a top 5 pick. Top 15 maybe, but at number 5 I'm not sure.

Splat
12-24-2007, 08:42 AM
With the Chiefs losing and the 49ers winning the Chiefs should be one step closer to getting Jake Long.:)

ATLDirtyBirds
12-24-2007, 09:32 AM
I think there is something you're forgetting: just because you want it to happen, doesn't mean it will. Just because you don't like Matt Ryan doesn't mean your team won't take him. Scott calls it a 'mock draft' for a reason because he simulates who he thinks the team will take in the Draft - not who he wants them to take. I tend to agree that the Falcons will take Ryan, regardless of your personal opinion of him.

I'd also like to ask you, exactly how many games have you watched Matt Ryan play in? Not just highlights or 'lowlights'), but legitimate from beginning to end games? A lot? If so, then perhaps your opinion is valid about him.

I had a chance to watch Ryan several times this year and he certainly doesn't have a 'weak arm' by any stretch of the imagination. Does he have a great deep ball like Carson Palmer or Peyton Manning? No, but he has passable arm strength. He's no Chad Pennington, that's for sure.

As for the INT's, those could be as Scott mentioned, a product of having a lack of weapons. If I'm not mistaken Callendar (a RB) is the leading receiver on that team. Which might show you just how much he lacks good receivers.

So just take it easy and perhaps think to yourself, "Well, just because I love Colt Brennan and Jake Long it doesn't mean that the GM of the Falcons feels the same way".


From what I've seen, he also has a good O-Line. Something he will not have if he comes here.

neko4
12-24-2007, 01:19 PM
Like to see you put Stewart to seattle, i had been seeing that as a possibility for awhile

BamaFalcon59
12-24-2007, 03:00 PM
Colt Brennan threw 14 INTs and he didnt even play the whole season. and I know its a pass happy offense but still....

This is one of the stupidest things I've seen posted on these boards. Are you HONESTLY trying to turn the NFL Draft into a game of statistics?

By that kind of logic, every player's fate is predetermined, and it's simply a crap-shoot at picking the right one. There isn't some kind of "percent chance" of picking a stud. And yes, OBVIOUSLY, the odds of getting a good player are higher in earlier rounds because IF THEY WEREN'T POTENTIALLY GOOD PLAYERS, THEY WOULDN'T BE GOING IN THE FIRST ROUND.

I mean really, what are you even trying to say, Scott? Brett Favre was a 2nd rounder. How'd that turn out? Brady went in, what, the 6th? Romo was undrafted. Yes, if you draft a QB in round 1, the ASSUMPTION is that he'll be better than one drafted later since, well, he was drafted before the other. But that has no impact on how well a player does.

Peyton Manning may have been an awful bust had San Diego drafted him #2. Alex Smith may have been awesome if he fell a few spots. Everything depends on what actually happens, not some crap like what round a QB was drafted in.




PS: Give me Long/Brennan over Ryan/some 2nd round LT any day of the week.

Great post.

scar988
12-24-2007, 03:11 PM
I think there is something you're forgetting: just because you want it to happen, doesn't mean it will. Just because you don't like Matt Ryan doesn't mean your team won't take him. Scott calls it a 'mock draft' for a reason because he simulates who he thinks the team will take in the Draft - not who he wants them to take. I tend to agree that the Falcons will take Ryan, regardless of your personal opinion of him.

I'd also like to ask you, exactly how many games have you watched Matt Ryan play in? Not just highlights or 'lowlights'), but legitimate from beginning to end games? A lot? If so, then perhaps your opinion is valid about him.

I had a chance to watch Ryan several times this year and he certainly doesn't have a 'weak arm' by any stretch of the imagination. Does he have a great deep ball like Carson Palmer or Peyton Manning? No, but he has passable arm strength. He's no Chad Pennington, that's for sure.

As for the INT's, those could be as Scott mentioned, a product of having a lack of weapons. If I'm not mistaken Callendar (a RB) is the leading receiver on that team. Which might show you just how much he lacks good receivers.

So just take it easy and perhaps think to yourself, "Well, just because I love Colt Brennan and Jake Long it doesn't mean that the GM of the Falcons feels the same way".
I've watched 6 games for Ryan this year. and in All of them, he reminded me more of Joey HArrington. his arm is too weak. and he makes poor decisions. Also whoever Atlanta takes will sit a year on the bench anyway because we need to get them an OL to protect them first. SO why would we waste a first round pick on a guy who is gonna sit for a year? though, I could see us trading down. I just don't think Ryan is worthy of a top 10 pick.
And yes he does have a weak arm. it's not Pennington but it's Lienart weak. it's WCO weak. and I don't think we're gonna bring in a WCO when we actually have the receivers for the deep ball. why waste guys who are deep ball WR's when you can't get them the ball deep? Ryan doesn't have the arm for our WR's. Ryan isn't worth the top pick. Also, Receivers don't affect INT #'s bad decisions do. and Ryan makes a lot of bad decisions. ATL will not reach for a guy who isn't worth the pick when there are guys who will be worth it. Also, Scott. who cares about %? honestly. why does it even matter? just because the % isn't there doesn't mean that the player can't change it. Brennan is a guy who can change that. He has the arm, the decision making and everythign else. He would be perfect for us, especially since he would sit for a year while we let him develop in the offense.

scar988
12-24-2007, 03:15 PM
The numbers don't lie, the odds of getting a stud signal caller in round two or three are extremely slim. Are first rounders a sure thing? Absolutely not. But as I have proven the chances of getting one of the first round are much, much, much better.

yes btu a lot has to involve the situation. Whoever the QB coming to Atlanta will have 3-4 solid WR's in White, Robinson, Jenkins and Horn, a pro bowl TE in Crumpler, a good receiving RB in Norwood and a solid FB in Mughelli. a lot of the QB being good is his situation. well in this situation we also have no OL. we would prolly sign a RT like Starks to be our RG, and then draft a LT like Long in the first, a QB like Brennan in the 2nd, and another OT like Richardson in the late 2nd. Long and Richardson at the OT spots, Starks at RG, Blalock at LG will give us a damn good pass blocking OL and a good power running one. give us that OL and those weapons and Brennan would be very successful for us.

Also, look at the situations for those 2nd rounders, most of them were in bad ones.

BamaFalcon59
12-24-2007, 04:14 PM
\Also, Receivers don't affect INT #'s bad decisions do. and Ryan makes a lot of bad decisions.\.

Michael Jenkins did drop like 3 passes that resulted in defensive touchdowns this year (Minnesota, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, any more?).

scar988
12-24-2007, 04:20 PM
Michael Jenkins did drop like 3 passes that resulted in defensive touchdowns this year (Minnesota, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, any more?).yes he has. but I don't think Ryan has one of those. all of his INT's were bad decisions, bad throws or a good defensive play on the ball

BamaFalcon59
12-24-2007, 04:22 PM
Oh, believe me I do not like Ryan at all. I've watched him a lot this year and made it pretty clear I don't like him.

EdReedUnstoppable
12-24-2007, 04:23 PM
Hate the Brohm pick with Jake Long on the board, actually I just hate the Brohm pick period.

scar988
12-24-2007, 04:30 PM
Oh, believe me I do not like Ryan at all. I've watched him a lot this year and made it pretty clear I don't like him.

I agree 100%.

49ersfan_87
12-24-2007, 09:58 PM
I wouldn't mind it. He;'s not a bad QB, and he could start at least a year or 2 until our draft pick starts, that, OR he would be like Brees (4 years out of college, then explode with new team.) but he is worth takign a shot on.

He is pretty bad actually..all he can do is connect on a deep pass with Lee Evans.

rascal
12-26-2007, 03:21 PM
I absolutely hate the Rivers pick. OT only please. Cutler is the future, and he needs some protection in case the recent games haven't illustrated that enough.

Ryan Clady should be our pick if that is how the draft unfolds.

619
12-26-2007, 03:31 PM
I absolutely hate the Rivers pick. OT only please. Cutler is the future, and he needs some protection in case the recent games haven't illustrated that enough.

Ryan Clady should be our pick if that is how the draft unfolds.

Your teams defense is aging and you need to instill some young playmakers to become a playoff team. Also the Broncos use ZBS so O-Line is not a major priority and could be found in the later rounds.

rascal
12-26-2007, 03:43 PM
Your teams defense is aging and you need to instill some young playmakers to become a playoff team. Also the Broncos use ZBS so O-Line is not a major priority and could be found in the later rounds.

Play makers can't do anything on the defense if they are constantly getting an o-lineman in their face because the front seven is horrible. We have play makers in Bly, Bailey, and DJ. We need help up front.

That second sentence makes no sense whatsoever. Broncos won their SBs with players such as Gary Zimmerman, a YOUNG Nalen, T Jones, Schlereth, and Dan Neil. Zimmerman, Nalen, Schlereth are HOF caliber players.

gsoturf
12-26-2007, 04:02 PM
Pretty nice mock, although I think a lot will change after the combine like in most years. I don't really see the hype around the Cal receiver Jackson. Any football player under 170 pounds no matter how fast of a player you are won't go in the first round IMO.

jdb1972
12-28-2007, 06:13 PM
I don't see Carolina taking Phillips at #11 (or where ever they wind up). True, they could use a free safety, but Fox and friends have a pattern of filling the non-Minter (and now non-Harris) slot with whatever waiver wire trash they can find. They're also not fond of true FSs.

Plus, consider this: Both their OTs are UFAs, and they don't really have any good backups. They will probably have to cut at least two of DeShaun Foster, Mike Wahle, Ken Lucas, Kris Jenkins, and/or Ma'ake Kemoeatu for cap purposes. Also, their #3 and #4 DTs are UFAs. Mike Rucker has probably played his last for the team. They don't really have anyone to play at RG, either, and they still desperately need a #2 WR (this year's #2 and #3 are also UFAs). And so on.

Lots of holes to fill, and a whole lot more important ones than FS. I'd say OT is the likely first priority (probably a true LT, since they seem likely to make every effort to keep Gross), followed by DE (bottom of the league in sacks), followed by RB (Fox needs a power runner to complement Williams).

BamaFalcon59
12-28-2007, 08:16 PM
Your teams defense is aging and you need to instill some young playmakers to become a playoff team. Also the Broncos use ZBS so O-Line is not a major priority and could be found in the later rounds.

The Falcons are the zone blocking scheme team that drafts offensive lineman late. Which is why our offensive line was/ is (we just switched schemes) garbage.

PossumBoy9
12-29-2007, 12:25 PM
Scott, any consideration in giving Gholston to St. Louis at #2 overall?

Scott Wright
12-29-2007, 12:27 PM
Scott, any consideration in giving Gholston to St. Louis at #2 overall?

Not really. I love Gholston but his 'tweener status would probably preclude him from going that high.

PossumBoy9
12-29-2007, 03:45 PM
Not really. I love Gholston but his 'tweener status would probably preclude him from going that high.

Thanks for the response.

diabsoule
12-29-2007, 03:54 PM
I know the Saints needs all the cornerback help they can get but I would hate to miss out on prospects like Keith Rivers or Dan Conner. I've seen the Saints pass on numerous impact linebackers in draft after draft and I'm just aching for the day that we add one, especially one from programs as rich as USC and Penn St.