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View Full Version : ThePudge's 2008 Draft Rants (Jan. 12th)


ThePudge
01-12-2008, 11:10 PM
I'm posting this to start a few conversations, comment on whatever you like. Agree, disagree, chat. It's basically an open discussion. I'm going to post my opinions on certain things and I'd like to hear some feedback. Thank you.

- QB Joe Flacco being invited to the Senior Bowl might very well be the worst thing for him. Flacco, a 6'6 230 senior, was a two year starter at the University of Delaware. He is viewed as a first day pick by many, but others believe he's a developmental guy and may have a little too much hype around him. I belong to the latter category. He's an excellent physcial specimen, but an incomplete player mechanically. He has played only lesser competition and benefitted from an excellent ground game. So, I question whether Flacco is ready for the Senior Bowl, the most competitive of the post-season All-Star games. An alarming fact is the lack of quality senior running backs. This matters because Flacco will most likely be counted on more to throw in the game. We'll see if he is ready to throw against higher competition. He'll be able to show his arm, of course, in practice (which is his top attribute.) However, I cannot help but feel that as of now, a mechanically troubled QB that has never played top competition may be getting thrown into the fire. He'll help himself at the Combine, where his size, arm, and decent athleticism can be shown, but I feel that the Senior Bowl may not be right for him. He's a Second Day player to me, falling into that 4th Round mix.

- The closet positional battle at the top, for me, is Illinois RB Rashard Mendenhall vs. Oregon's Jonathan Stewart. Of course, Darren McFadden is the highest rated player at the position (and in the draft by many.) But, Mendenhall and Stewart both are Top 15 talents. Which one to choose? They are similar in size, (RM: 5'11 224, JS: 5'11 230) and have similar production (RM: 1,681 yds 6.4 avg 17 Td; 34 rec 318 yds 2 Td, JS: 1,722 yds 6.2 11 Td; 22 rec 145 yds 2 Td). They are both home-run threats due to their size, for example in their respective bowl games, Mendenhall scored on a 79 yard run, while Stewart broke off a 71 yd Td run of his own. So, where are these players separated? They both run hard between the tackles, but Stewart seems to be slightly harder to bring to the ground. Stewart also adds versatility, with experience as a Kick Returner. However, when all is said and done, I doubt he's 5'11, I think he's much closer to 5'10 and Mendenhall seems to have better straight line speed, which would point to a better 40 yard dash time. In the end, they are both great prospects, fast, strong, and productive. I'd take either in the Top 10-15. I really have no preference at this point. Straight up, I like Stewart, but I get that feeling that Mendenhall will have a Combine that'll make it very, very close.

- Though Glenn Dorsey is billed as the #1 prospect in the land by many and viewed as a Top 3 pick by most, I'm not buying him being chosen in the Top 3, or Top 5 for that matter. Dorsey is an excellent player and perhaps the best DT prospect seen in a very long time. Though, Sedrick Ellis, USC's stud DT may disagree. Ellis is seen as a Top 10 pick himself and he seems to be gaining momentum. That creates what I'll call the "Chris Perry factor." By that, I'm referring to 2004, when the Bengals fell in love with Chris Perry and picked him instead of the unanimous #1 RB Steven Jackson. A team like the Rams, Falcons, Raiders, or Chiefs could very well rate Ellis higher on their boards. The second issue I will touch on is what I'll call the "Big Daddy Wilkinson factor". Defensive Tackle is quite possibly the riskiest position to select in the first round, especially the Top 5-10. In the past 15 years, we've seen Dwayne Robertson, Johnathan Sullivan, Ryan Sims (a partial bust), Gerard Warren, Corey Simon (out of the league after a few solid seasons), and of course the last two DT's drafted #1 overall: Dan Wilkinson and Russell Maryland. The fact is, 1st Round DT's are USUALLY not high impact guys right away and have more bust potential than any other position in my opinion. Now, the third thing I will focus my attention on is the "Old man factor." Dorsey's bad knees are a cause for concern, I wouldn't go as far as saying he's an injury-prone player, but I would say the added risk is there. The wear and tear on an active DT like himself, after awhile, is similar to that of a Running Back that gets 25-30 carries a game. So, with that all being said, Chiefs fans, Ravens fans, Bengals fans, it's not impossible that Glenn Dorsey will be playing football for your team next year.

- What will the Patriots do with the 7th Overall pick? This is an intruiging question now that we know Malcolm Jenkins and probably James Laurinaitis are staying at Ohio State. The Pats don't need help on the D-Line, so cross off Top 10 prospects Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis, and Chris Long. They obviously don't need a QB for the next 5-7 years or so, so goodbye Matt Ryan, Andre Woodson, and Brian Brohm. They also probably won't want to put more first round money into the RB position, so even if Darren McFadden falls that far, he probably wouldn't be the pick. The Pats tend to find their OL talent later on, and haven't drafted a first round OT since 1992 (Eugene Chung), so I wouldn't count on Jake Long or Ryan Clady to be the pick if he lasted until 7. The only way the Patriots pick here, is if Vernon Gholston falls to them or if they feel that Kenny Phillips, Mike Jenkins, or Keith Rivers is worth the 7th Overall pick. An elite prospect will fall to #7, whether it be Dorsey, Long, McFadden, etc... If it's a defensive player, you can count on a trade up to steal that player away from Baltimore/Cincinnati/New Orleans. If it's a QB, a team may want to move up and get their pick before Baltimore has a chance to. An NFC team like Carolina may want to move up and grab a Jake Long or Ryan Clady, or New Orleans may want to steal Keith Rivers away from Cincinnati, possibly even a team like Minnesota who some feel is a QB away from being an elite team could move up. The truth is, the Pats don't need this pick, and are free to shop it to the highest bidder to collect additional picks and maybe even an extra first rounder for next year.

...More to come later. Feel free to voice your opinions on all these issues.

GET LOOSE
01-12-2008, 11:15 PM
i think the pats would take DMAC if he is their...but he wont be so it dosnt matter...they will go defence LB or D-line

619
01-12-2008, 11:16 PM
I would be shocked if the Pats didnt trade down, they always find a way to outsmart other teams and add additional picks maybe even another first rounder.

SchizophrenicBatman
01-12-2008, 11:17 PM
I agree with you on Flacco, think Mendenhall is a better football player than Stewart but Stewart will workout better, am apathetic towards the DTs and think the Pats will be looking at DB for the most part. Don't think they stay at #7 and pay that much money to an unproven player, though

ThePudge
01-12-2008, 11:23 PM
i think the pats would take DMAC if he is their...but he wont be so it dosnt matter...they will go defence LB or D-line

If the Pats take McFadden, I'd be shocked. As I said, you are already paying 1st Round money for Moroney, a young talented back, and getting solid play from all of their backs. New England is primarily a passing team anyway. To pay for two first round RB's, including one Top 10 pick would be too much. They obviously don't need McFadden, but there are plenty of teams that I'm sure would love to trade up there and take him.

As for defense there, I think it'd take a big rise from either Mike Jenkins or Keith Rivers for them to keep the pick.

One thing I do know about Stewart vs. Mendenhall, is that Jonathan Stewart will, without a doubt, pass the eye test for the scouts at weigh-ins, bench press, and in the bod-pod.

SchizophrenicBatman
01-12-2008, 11:38 PM
The thing that bothers me about Stewart is that I have a feeling he's going to build a mountain of hype after the combine. And while he certainly has the on-field production to back it up to an extent, I'm not sure if its enough for a LOCK top 15 pick (remember...adjust down for RBs, I'll agree he's top 15 talent, not pick) which his combine numbers will make him look. Of course, I'm one of the people who think he's going to bench ridiculous numbers, have low body fat, good 3 cone and a sub 4.4 forty. I guess the best comparison I can come up with is Vernon Davis. Was he good at Maryland? Sure. Was he 6th overall pick good? No

diabsoule
01-12-2008, 11:55 PM
New Orleans should not trade up. If anything, they should trade down.

BeerBaron
01-13-2008, 12:07 AM
i think your discouting what the pats may do with the d-line talent available. i think they'd jump at the chance to add a dorsey, long or gholston to thier front 7 rotation

lost33cause
01-13-2008, 12:57 AM
The bengals didn't choose Chris Perry of Jackson. We traded down to get an extra pick and chose Chris Perry since the Rams took jackson. It wasn't a bad decision at the time and we got a very versatile OL guy in Andrews who will be fought over in FA.

Iamcanadian
01-13-2008, 01:28 AM
[QUOTE=ThePudge;837433]I'm posting this to start a few conversations, comment on whatever you like. Agree, disagree, chat. It's basically an open discussion. I'm going to post my opinions on certain things and I'd like to hear some feedback. Thank you.

- QB Joe Flacco being invited to the Senior Bowl might very well be the worst thing for him. Flacco, a 6'6 230 senior, was a two year starter at the University of Delaware. He is viewed as a first day pick by many, but others believe he's a developmental guy and may have a little too much hype around him. I belong to the latter category. He's an excellent physcial specimen, but an incomplete player mechanically. He has played only lesser competition and benefitted from an excellent ground game. So, I question whether Flacco is ready for the Senior Bowl, the most competitive of the post-season All-Star games. An alarming fact is the lack of quality senior running backs. This matters because Flacco will most likely be counted on more to throw in the game. We'll see if he is ready to throw against higher competition. He'll be able to show his arm, of course, in practice (which is his top attribute.) However, I cannot help but feel that as of now, a mechanically troubled QB that has never played top competition may be getting thrown into the fire. He'll help himself at the Combine, where his size, arm, and decent athleticism can be shown, but I feel that the Senior Bowl may not be right for him. He's a Second Day player to me, falling into that 4th Round mix.

***Flacco is no worse than the #5 QB prospect in the draft. He needs the Senior Bowl to show he belongs or is possibly better than the big 4. In case you don't know, all the GM's and scouts go home before the game. They are far more interested in the workouts than the game itself. If he cannot handle himself in a meaningless Bowl game, how is he ever going to amount to much as a NFL QB.

- The closet positional battle at the top, for me, is Illinois RB Rashard Mendenhall vs. Oregon's Jonathan Stewart. Of course, Darren McFadden is the highest rated player at the position (and in the draft by many.) But, Mendenhall and Stewart both are Top 15 talents. Which one to choose? They are similar in size, (RM: 5'11 224, JS: 5'11 230) and have similar production (RM: 1,681 yds 6.4 avg 17 Td; 34 rec 318 yds 2 Td, JS: 1,722 yds 6.2 11 Td; 22 rec 145 yds 2 Td). They are both home-run threats due to their size, for example in their respective bowl games, Mendenhall scored on a 79 yard run, while Stewart broke off a 71 yd Td run of his own. So, where are these players separated? They both run hard between the tackles, but Stewart seems to be slightly harder to bring to the ground. Stewart also adds versatility, with experience as a Kick Returner. However, when all is said and done, I doubt he's 5'11, I think he's much closer to 5'10 and Mendenhall seems to have better straight line speed, which would point to a better 40 yard dash time. In the end, they are both great prospects, fast, strong, and productive. I'd take either in the Top 10-15. I really have no preference at this point. Straight up, I like Stewart, but I get that feeling that Mendenhall will have a Combine that'll make it very, very close.


***There are a lot more battles in the post season than just RB. Every junior will be out to prove they have a higher ceiling than the seniors and every good small college player will be out to prove they belong or are better than the big Div 1 players. There are in fact very few positions where a battle won't take place. The Senior Bowl workouts, the combine and pro days can see many prospects move way up or way down draft boards depending on their performance.

- Though Glenn Dorsey is billed as the #1 prospect in the land by many and viewed as a Top 3 pick by most, I'm not buying him being chosen in the Top 3, or Top 5 for that matter. Dorsey is an excellent player and perhaps the best DT prospect seen in a very long time. Though, Sedrick Ellis, USC's stud DT may disagree. Ellis is seen as a Top 10 pick himself and he seems to be gaining momentum. That creates what I'll call the "Chris Perry factor." By that, I'm referring to 2004, when the Bengals fell in love with Chris Perry and picked him instead of the unanimous #1 RB Steven Jackson. A team like the Rams, Falcons, Raiders, or Chiefs could very well rate Ellis higher on their boards. The second issue I will touch on is what I'll call the "Big Daddy Wilkinson factor". Defensive Tackle is quite possibly the riskiest position to select in the first round, especially the Top 5-10. In the past 15 years, we've seen Dwayne Robertson, Johnathan Sullivan, Ryan Sims (a partial bust), Gerard Warren, Corey Simon (out of the league after a few solid seasons), and of course the last two DT's drafted #1 overall: Dan Wilkinson and Russell Maryland. The fact is, 1st Round DT's are USUALLY not high impact guys right away and have more bust potential than any other position in my opinion. Now, the third thing I will focus my attention on is the "Old man factor." Dorsey's bad knees are a cause for concern, I wouldn't go as far as saying he's an injury-prone player, but I would say the added risk is there. The wear and tear on an active DT like himself, after awhile, is similar to that of a Running Back that gets 25-30 carries a game. So, with that all being said, Chiefs fans, Ravens fans, Bengals fans, it's not impossible that Glenn Dorsey will be playing football for your team next year.


*** Dorsey's injury problems are well known and could indeed drop him on draft day. However if he is healthy, he'll go top 3 or 4. There are flops at every position in the draft but pro teams trust their scouts and GM's to make good decisions and they don't care about past flops, they only care about their opinion on a prospect. Rookies in general have very little impact in their rookie year, the adjustment from college to pro ball is immense and takes time. In fact only between 23-26% of 1st round picks start the season as starters, the others have to work their way into the starting lineup. IMO, if Miami retains the top pick, Dorsey won't be the pick as he doesn't suit a 3-4 team.

- What will the Patriots do with the 7th Overall pick? This is an intruiging question now that we know Malcolm Jenkins and probably James Laurinaitis are staying at Ohio State. The Pats don't need help on the D-Line, so cross off Top 10 prospects Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis, and Chris Long. They obviously don't need a QB for the next 5-7 years or so, so goodbye Matt Ryan, Andre Woodson, and Brian Brohm. They also probably won't want to put more first round money into the RB position, so even if Darren McFadden falls that far, he probably wouldn't be the pick. The Pats tend to find their OL talent later on, and haven't drafted a first round OT since 1992 (Eugene Chung), so I wouldn't count on Jake Long or Ryan Clady to be the pick if he lasted until 7. The only way the Patriots pick here, is if Vernon Gholston falls to them or if they feel that Kenny Phillips, Mike Jenkins, or Keith Rivers is worth the 7th Overall pick. An elite prospect will fall to #7, whether it be Dorsey, Long, McFadden, etc... If it's a defensive player, you can count on a trade up to steal that player away from Baltimore/Cincinnati/New Orleans. If it's a QB, a team may want to move up and get their pick before Baltimore has a chance to. An NFC team like Carolina may want to move up and grab a Jake Long or Ryan Clady, or New Orleans may want to steal Keith Rivers away from Cincinnati, possibly even a team like Minnesota who some feel is a QB away from being an elite team could move up. The truth is, the Pats don't need this pick, and are free to shop it to the highest bidder to collect additional picks and maybe even an extra first rounder for next year.


***NE under BB, drafted a 1st round OLman in the 2005 draft by the name on Logan Mankins so your wrong on that point. I think there is a very good chance that NE drafts with the #7 pick. They know they will get an impact player drafting that high and aren't likely to pass on the opportunity.

toonsterwu
01-13-2008, 01:58 AM
1. Joe Flacco - As much as I've harped on my belief that he still has some mechanical issues, you sure make the mechanical issues sound pretty bad ... and I'm not sure they are. Sure, you'd like to see the arm angle change, although my bigger concern is that I still think he has a tiny hitch on the windup. But he gets rid of the ball quick. Now, all that said, I do think Flacco is getting a tad overhyped at this point, a product of a weak QB class. As I've noted before, I think some of the windows that he had don't exist in D-1A (uh, whatever it's called know), let alone the NFL. All that said, I don't believe that the Senior Bowl hurts him. At worst, he stays on his current low end, which is the 4th round. At best, some team gets intrigued and he goes on the high end, which is anywhere in the late first/early 2nd. I really don't think it can hurt, because at worst, he's considered a physical specimen, at best, he shows some of the promise that many feel. His other option was the Shrine Game, which is nice, but would've still left some questions in regards to caliber of competition ability. If it comes down to throwing, I do think Flacco can do as well as any QB there, if not better, during the practices. Every single QB there will have some level of warts.

2. The RB battle - I still prefer Mendenhall long run (over McFadden as well). Stewart plays lower to the ground, though. I think teams will be interested in whether or not Stewart is a quick back, or if he's a fast and quick back. If he can show he's the latter, he'll probably end up going ahead of Mendenhall. I don't think this battle gets decided on until the combines/workouts. I don't expect 3 backs to go in the top 15, though.

3. You offer some valid points on DT. Let me start with this. The big man theory (there's other names for it) will likely prevent a big drop for Dorsey or Ellis unless there is a huge medical issue. Simply put, the number of quality big mean is quite small, and in this draft, the DT crop is actually quite thin. A good one is going to go high. Dorsey is very well regarded, and based on the teams in the top 5, I don't think he actually drops out, unless there is a said medical concern. Oakland/Atlanta/Kansas City could all look to take him.

4. The Patriots certainly have a lot of options. I think their first preference will be to deal down and perhaps accumulate some futures while still staying in the first. Based on my early guesses, I think that possibility might actually develop. Let's say they can't deal down, though. I don't see Rivers - where does he fit? I don't see OT either, unless they make some moves to their current OL (no one's contract is up, so they'd have to cut/deal someone). That seems unlikely as well. I think RB is a thought but they'd have to really like someone and be souring on Maroney, which I doubt. I think Gholston and Chris Long both could be considerations, but I don't believe either will last that long in a straight down, no-trade scenario (now, I also think the Jets will look to deal, which could change things). If Gholston/Chris Long are there, I think they take either one, probably Long before Gholston. I could see Mike Jenkins or Kenny Phillips get consideration there. I think the name that most people are forgetting is Derrick Harvey. Like everyone else, I somewhat dropped him as the season progressed, but teams really like his pass rushing skillset. In fact, moving to a 3-4 OLB role may be a better move for his career. Some comparisons to Demarcus Ware coming out are fair. Now, Harvey has to work up a bit more to be considered there, as he's probably more a mid-first right now. But it is a name to keep in mind there.

Caddy
01-13-2008, 02:13 AM
***NE under BB, drafted a 1st round OLman in the 2005 draft by the name on Logan Mankins so your wrong on that point. I think there is a very good chance that NE drafts with the #7 pick. They know they will get an impact player drafting that high and aren't likely to pass on the opportunity.[/quote]

In his defense he said NE hasn't drafted a first round OT for years, not first round OG.

Iamcanadian
01-13-2008, 08:26 AM
1.

4. The Patriots certainly have a lot of options. I think their first preference will be to deal down and perhaps accumulate some futures while still staying in the first. Based on my early guesses, I think that possibility might actually develop. Let's say they can't deal down, though. I don't see Rivers - where does he fit? I don't see OT either, unless they make some moves to their current OL (no one's contract is up, so they'd have to cut/deal someone). That seems unlikely as well. I think RB is a thought but they'd have to really like someone and be souring on Maroney, which I doubt. I think Gholston and Chris Long both could be considerations, but I don't believe either will last that long in a straight down, no-trade scenario (now, I also think the Jets will look to deal, which could change things). If Gholston/Chris Long are there, I think they take either one, probably Long before Gholston. I could see Mike Jenkins or Kenny Phillips get consideration there. I think the name that most people are forgetting is Derrick Harvey. Like everyone else, I somewhat dropped him as the season progressed, but teams really like his pass rushing skillset. In fact, moving to a 3-4 OLB role may be a better move for his career. Some comparisons to Demarcus Ware coming out are fair. Now, Harvey has to work up a bit more to be considered there, as he's probably more a mid-first right now. But it is a name to keep in mind there.

The Jets are the last team NE will trade with. Not only are they division rivals and hated by the Pats, they both play a 3-4 defense and are after exactly the same players so a trade is highly unlikely.

Patriots16-0
01-13-2008, 08:52 AM
Mendenhall and Stewart over McFadden. That's one thing I would like to see.

ThePudge
01-13-2008, 12:16 PM
1. Joe Flacco - As much as I've harped on my belief that he still has some mechanical issues, you sure make the mechanical issues sound pretty bad ... and I'm not sure they are. Sure, you'd like to see the arm angle change, although my bigger concern is that I still think he has a tiny hitch on the windup. But he gets rid of the ball quick. Now, all that said, I do think Flacco is getting a tad overhyped at this point, a product of a weak QB class. As I've noted before, I think some of the windows that he had don't exist in D-1A (uh, whatever it's called know), let alone the NFL. All that said, I don't believe that the Senior Bowl hurts him. At worst, he stays on his current low end, which is the 4th round. At best, some team gets intrigued and he goes on the high end, which is anywhere in the late first/early 2nd. I really don't think it can hurt, because at worst, he's considered a physical specimen, at best, he shows some of the promise that many feel. His other option was the Shrine Game, which is nice, but would've still left some questions in regards to caliber of competition ability. If it comes down to throwing, I do think Flacco can do as well as any QB there, if not better, during the practices. Every single QB there will have some level of warts.

2. The RB battle - I still prefer Mendenhall long run (over McFadden as well). Stewart plays lower to the ground, though. I think teams will be interested in whether or not Stewart is a quick back, or if he's a fast and quick back. If he can show he's the latter, he'll probably end up going ahead of Mendenhall. I don't think this battle gets decided on until the combines/workouts. I don't expect 3 backs to go in the top 15, though.

3. You offer some valid points on DT. Let me start with this. The big man theory (there's other names for it) will likely prevent a big drop for Dorsey or Ellis unless there is a huge medical issue. Simply put, the number of quality big mean is quite small, and in this draft, the DT crop is actually quite thin. A good one is going to go high. Dorsey is very well regarded, and based on the teams in the top 5, I don't think he actually drops out, unless there is a said medical concern. Oakland/Atlanta/Kansas City could all look to take him.

4. The Patriots certainly have a lot of options. I think their first preference will be to deal down and perhaps accumulate some futures while still staying in the first. Based on my early guesses, I think that possibility might actually develop. Let's say they can't deal down, though. I don't see Rivers - where does he fit? I don't see OT either, unless they make some moves to their current OL (no one's contract is up, so they'd have to cut/deal someone). That seems unlikely as well. I think RB is a thought but they'd have to really like someone and be souring on Maroney, which I doubt. I think Gholston and Chris Long both could be considerations, but I don't believe either will last that long in a straight down, no-trade scenario (now, I also think the Jets will look to deal, which could change things). If Gholston/Chris Long are there, I think they take either one, probably Long before Gholston. I could see Mike Jenkins or Kenny Phillips get consideration there. I think the name that most people are forgetting is Derrick Harvey. Like everyone else, I somewhat dropped him as the season progressed, but teams really like his pass rushing skillset. In fact, moving to a 3-4 OLB role may be a better move for his career. Some comparisons to Demarcus Ware coming out are fair. Now, Harvey has to work up a bit more to be considered there, as he's probably more a mid-first right now. But it is a name to keep in mind there.

1. Eh, maybe I'm just not a Flacco guy. I don't see him, or any DI-AA QB, as a guy who can step in and play. The last small school QB selected on the first day was Tavaris Jackson, who has taken a little longer to develop than the Vikings probably hoped. I don't think he's ready to play right now, so I think that scares away QB needy teams. Of course, if a team falls in love, he could go anywhere. At highest, he goes #30 to San Francisco, who may wish to spice up their QB competition, but at worst I think he does slide into that fourth round and is looked at as a developmental option at QB.

2. Just to clear up a little something, I don't think there is any way that Mendenhall and Stewart (in addition to McFadden) are drafted in the Top 15, unless some trades shake it up. The teams picking that high simply don't need Running Backs. However, I think they are worth Top 15 picks in this draft.

3. I'd agree with you that Oakland, Atlanta, or Kansas City could all take him and are probably the most likely to take him. I was just saying that I don't expect him to be one of the Top 2-3 picks and wouldn't be shocked if he fell out of the Top 5 all together. Atlanta's really the X-Factor... they could go in so many directions (Jake Long, Darren McFadden, Dorsey/Ellis, Matt Ryan), it all depends on personal preference in the end, and I'm not positive it'll be Dorsey.

4. I toyed with the idea of Derrick Harvey as well, but as we stand now, he's more of a mid-first guy like you said. The Patriots don't have to reach at a guy who may be there for him at 13, 14 maybe. I think he'll move himself up with his workouts, but I don't know that he'll show he has all the tools to play 3-4 OLB. I think he very well could though, which brings up another interesting discussion. Who has the most potential to move up into the Top 10 at the Combine? It may very well be Harvey with the Jets and Patriots (6 and 7 respectively) both running a 3-4 defense. However, I still don't see the Patriots as needing this pick, so I see no reason for them to not trade it and collect extra picks for next year or later in the draft (which is what their team is built on.)

ThePudge
01-13-2008, 12:36 PM
[QUOTE=ThePudge;837433]

***Flacco is no worse than the #5 QB prospect in the draft. He needs the Senior Bowl to show he belongs or is possibly better than the big 4. In case you don't know, all the GM's and scouts go home before the game. They are far more interested in the workouts than the game itself. If he cannot handle himself in a meaningless Bowl game, how is he ever going to amount to much as a NFL QB.

***There are a lot more battles in the post season than just RB. Every junior will be out to prove they have a higher ceiling than the seniors and every good small college player will be out to prove they belong or are better than the big Div 1 players. There are in fact very few positions where a battle won't take place. The Senior Bowl workouts, the combine and pro days can see many prospects move way up or way down draft boards depending on their performance.

*** Dorsey's injury problems are well known and could indeed drop him on draft day. However if he is healthy, he'll go top 3 or 4. There are flops at every position in the draft but pro teams trust their scouts and GM's to make good decisions and they don't care about past flops, they only care about their opinion on a prospect. Rookies in general have very little impact in their rookie year, the adjustment from college to pro ball is immense and takes time. In fact only between 23-26% of 1st round picks start the season as starters, the others have to work their way into the starting lineup. IMO, if Miami retains the top pick, Dorsey won't be the pick as he doesn't suit a 3-4 team.

***NE under BB, drafted a 1st round OLman in the 2005 draft by the name on Logan Mankins so your wrong on that point. I think there is a very good chance that NE drafts with the #7 pick. They know they will get an impact player drafting that high and aren't likely to pass on the opportunity.

1. I'm aware that practices at the Senior Bowl are the more efficient evaluator for most things. I think Flacco should practice well. However, I'd like to watch the game to see how he handles himself under pressure from bigger, faster Defensive Ends. I just don't see him as good a prospect as more polished guys like Erik Ainge and Chad Henne, who may be able to get on the field earlier in their career's. But hey, maybe Flacco will blow people away and I'll change my opinion.

2. I didn't say that was the only positional battle haha. I said it was the most intruiging to me, because they are so similar. Near the top alone: Ryan/Brohm/Woodson's a nice battle, as is Dorsey/Ellis, also there's Long/Gholston. However, I decided that this one piqued my interest moreso than the others because of the similarities in the players production and measurables.

3. I believe that, if you are taking a defensive player in the Top 3, he should be a guy that can start right away. 3 of the top 7 teams selecting, run the 3-4, in which Dorsey isn't a picture perfect fit. For Oakland and Atlanta, they have to determine what their greatest needs are and which player fits it the best. It could very well be Doresy at 3 or 4. Kansas City must decide between DT, OT, and DE (pending the Jared Allen situation), assuming Mike Jenkins doesn't not vault himself into Top 5 status.

4. I said Offensive Tackle, where their starters are already getting it done there. I think for the Pats to pick there, they'd have to be rather high on either Mike Jenkins or Derrick Harvey, two current mid-first round players with potential to move up.

Babylon
01-13-2008, 12:38 PM
4. The Patriots certainly have a lot of options. I think their first preference will be to deal down and perhaps accumulate some futures while still staying in the first. Based on my early guesses, I think that possibility might actually develop. Let's say they can't deal down, though. I don't see Rivers - where does he fit? I don't see OT either, unless they make some moves to their current OL (no one's contract is up, so they'd have to cut/deal someone). That seems unlikely as well. I think RB is a thought but they'd have to really like someone and be souring on Maroney, which I doubt. I think Gholston and Chris Long both could be considerations, but I don't believe either will last that long in a straight down, no-trade scenario (now, I also think the Jets will look to deal, which could change things). If Gholston/Chris Long are there, I think they take either one, probably Long before Gholston. I could see Mike Jenkins or Kenny Phillips get consideration there. I think the name that most people are forgetting is Derrick Harvey. Like everyone else, I somewhat dropped him as the season progressed, but teams really like his pass rushing skillset. In fact, moving to a 3-4 OLB role may be a better move for his career. Some comparisons to Demarcus Ware coming out are fair. Now, Harvey has to work up a bit more to be considered there, as he's probably more a mid-first right now. But it is a name to keep in mind there.[/QUOTE]


Totally agree on your assessment of the Pats. First off i dont know how Keith Rivers keeps getting mentioned in the top half of round 1, to me he was the 3rd best LB on that SC team. They have to be thinking of somehow getting replacements for Seau and Teddy and probably down the road Vrable. My guess is if Laurinaitis is there they probably reach a little and take him or maybe even Dan Connor or a Jerod Mayo who may be just as good. I think they are always on the lookout for another receiver in the subsequent rounds and maybe a young OL type to develope. To be precise they probably look to trade down a little and take a LB.

toonsterwu
01-13-2008, 01:22 PM
The Jets are the last team NE will trade with. Not only are they division rivals and hated by the Pats, they both play a 3-4 defense and are after exactly the same players so a trade is highly unlikely.

Huh? Where did I say the Jets and Pats would look to deal? All I'm saying is that the Jets could deal down, changing the people available for New England at 7.

ThePudge
01-13-2008, 03:02 PM
Totally agree on your assessment of the Pats. First off i dont know how Keith Rivers keeps getting mentioned in the top half of round 1, to me he was the 3rd best LB on that SC team. They have to be thinking of somehow getting replacements for Seau and Teddy and probably down the road Vrable. My guess is if Laurinaitis is there they probably reach a little and take him or maybe even Dan Connor or a Jerod Mayo who may be just as good. I think they are always on the lookout for another receiver in the subsequent rounds and maybe a young OL type to develope. To be precise they probably look to trade down a little and take a LB.

Laurinaitis has yet to declare, and from what I hear, he's probably staying in school. Dan Connor and Jerod Mayo are far from being Top 10 picks, and I really don't think Mayo even fits there. Truth is, there are no ILB worth that #7 pick and I'm not sure that any are worth a Top 15 pick at this point for that matter.