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ChiFan24
02-20-2008, 01:48 AM
I'm going to finish the third round, but I'm tired right now, and I wanted to post this before the coin flip ruins everything. Some of the early comments may be outdated, as I started this a couple weeks ago, but the picks are not.

And since I've never posted one of these here, a little disclaimor: I know what I'm talking about. If you think I forgot to fill one of your team's needs, I didn't. I know all your team's needs, and I tried to fill them when possible. However, I don't just match a player with a certain position with a team according to need; I put MUCH more thought into the draft than that. I try to look at past draft trends, GM draft philospohies, system fit, etc. The result is some surprise/unconventional picks, but IMO, a decent picture as to how the draft might actually go. Basically, if someone held a gun to my head and told me to tell them EXACTLY what would happen on draft day, this is what I would tell them. So thoughtful comments would be appreciated. If you think a certain pick is bad, then I want to know why.




Pre-draft Trades

1. Denver trades WR Javon Walker to Washington for #84 overall
2. Detroit trades DT Shaun Rogers to the New York Jets for a fifth and conditional 2009 3rd or 4th round pick


1. Miami Dolphins – Chris Long DE Virginia
Right now this seems like the obvious pick. Long is probably the best overall defensive player in the draft, and he has played the 3-4 DE spot in college. He has the work ethic that Parcells/Sparano will love, and there’s the Al Groh connection to take into account as well. His versatility is intriguing as well (some believe he can stand up in the 3-4).

2. Saint Louis Rams – Vernon Gholston DE/OLB Ohio State
The word is that the Rams are going to stay with the 4-3 in 2008, but implement more 3-4 looks. They have solid pieces in place for a potential move; a defensive line of Carriker/Ryan/Adeyanju is certainly passable (depth can be added later on), while Draft and Witherspoon are both fits as ILB. What they lack is edge talent, with Leonard Little having lost more than a step, and James Hall/Brandon Chillar/Pisa Tinoisamoa only average fits at OLB. I, along with everyone else in the draft world, expect Gholston to have an amazing combine, which should be enough to bring him into top two consideration. He can give St. Louis a pass rushing threat at end, where production was non-existent last season, and in the 3-4 looks, he can give the Rams a Merriman-like presence.

3. Oakland Raiders – Darren McFadden RB Arkansas
This comes down to two guys – McFadden and Sedrick Ellis – and IMO it will be Al Davis vs. Lane Kiffin. With Justin Fargas back, I think Kiffin will be content with his RB situation, and look to bolster the other side of the ball with a Southern Cal guy in Sedrick Ellis. However, Al Davis has proven time and time again that his opinion is the only one that matters, and it seems like a Davis move to go after the big name RB in McFadden.

4. Atlanta Falcons – Sedrick Ellis DT Southern California
Dimitroff has already stated that he’s going to look at need and system fit before all else, and that QB isn’t necessarily a round one look. Ryan isn’t good value here anyway, so he’s out. For me, it comes down to Jake Long and Sed Ellis, who IMO, will have no trouble jumping Glenn Dorsey for the title of top DT. From a pure need standpoint, it’s probably Long – the Falcons have an unproven running game, and at some point, will have a young QB behind center – Long would be a big help at LT. But from a system standpoint, and a potential standpoint, it’s undoubtedly Ellis – Smith’s system is reliant upon strong, disruptive DT play (see Stroud/Henderson), and Dimitroff is from a team whose three defensive linemen were all first rounders. Ellis is the pick here.

5. Kansas City Chiefs – Jake Long OT Michigan
The Chiefs went after Alex Gibbs earlier in the offseason, whose zone blocking scheme may have made a first round offensive lineman questionable. But with Chan Gailey in, and a “safe” left tackle prospect in Jake Long still on the board, this would seem like the obvious pick. Dorsey would get a look here as well.

6. New Orleans Saints (f/NYJ) – Glenn Dorsey DT Louisiana State
TRADE: New York trades #6 overall and a fourth rounder to New Orleans for #10 overall and #40 overall
With Dorsey falling down the board, the Jets find themselves in a pretty good position of power. With nothing particularly enticing here, they decide to take the best offer. I’d expect a mini-bidding war here between Denver and New Orleans, with the Saints eventually agreeing to surrender some value. They’ll jump at the opportunity to take a big disruptive force in the middle rather than waiting at 10 and taking another CB.

7. New England Patriots (f/SF) – Leodis McKelvin CB Troy
Making a guess here was difficult before the super bowl, but now that they lost it, it’s bordering on impossible. What can the Patriots POSSIBLY do this offseason? They had the greatest team of all time, the greatest season of all time, and because of one game, they get nothing for it. How do you prepare for another 16-20 games? Randy Moss and Asante Samuel are free agents, as are Tedy Bruschi, Junior Seau, Randall ***, Eugene Wilson, and Jabar Gaffeny. Stallworth was essentially a one-year deal. Which guys do they bring back? Which guys want to come back? This is my guess – Stallworth is gone, obviously. Bruschi retires, while *** and Wilson walk. Roosevelt Colvin is restructured. Moss, Seau, and Gaffney are re-signed. I’m on the fence with Samuel. They can’t go into the season with Ellis Hobbs and a rookie starting at corner, but can they fit Samuel under the cap? And even if they can, isn’t that a bit un-Patriots-like? Ugh...I’ll have to assume he walks. But I’m not ruling anything out. Instead, I’ll say New England signs Ty Law. With the pick, New England takes the best overall corner, who seems to do just about everything well, and can return kicks while competing with Hobbs and Law for a starting role. If Samuel comes back, I’m leaning towards Clady or a trade down, BTW.

8. Baltimore Ravens - Matt Ryan QB Boston College
Baltimore could go DE, OT, or CB here, but I think they’ll be looking for a QB. Boller isn’t as terrible as some make him out to be, but I doubt he’ll have too many supporters now that Billick and company are gone. McNair will be released, and Troy Smith is no more than a backup, IMO. I see Cameron pushing for a young QB to groom, and I think Ryan grades out highest. Clady is the other option with Jonathan Ogden probably retiring, though I doubt the Ravens will want to block Jared Gaither; I think they’ll have him compete with Adam Terry on the left side, with the loser competing with Marshall Yanda on the right.

9. Cincinnati Bengals – Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon
The defense is probably the biggest problem with this team, but when Marvin Lewis comes out and states the team’s top priority is to surround Carson Palmer with more talent, I don’t know how else that can be interpreted. Rudi Johnson was hurt this season, and when he did play, he was awful. Chris Perry is constantly injured. Kenny Watson could walk in free agency. I can see Cincinnati entering the season with a rookie as the full time back, Kenny Irons a change of pace guy, and Dede Dorsey the third guy. I give Stewart the edge over Mendenhall, he’ll give the Bengals the multi-dimensional back they lacked this season.

10. New York Jets (f/NYJ) – Kentwan Balmer DE/DT North Carolina
I was thinking Derrick Harvey here as a rush backer, but that doesn’t really seem like the most Jets-like thing to do (and by Jets-like, I mean Patriots like). I wouldn’t completely rule him out, but I’m not sure that Tangini will value a pure rush backer highly. Instead I’m going to give the Jets a Ty Warren. Balmer will give New York some much-needed size at DE as well as a guy who can penetrate and collapse the pocket. This will probably be seen as a semi-reach on draft day, but you can never go wrong with the Pioli philosophy.

11. Buffalo Bills – Keith Rivers WLB Southern California
Extremely tough call here for Buffalo; especially now that Levy is out as GM and Fairchild is out as OC. If Fairchild had remained in Buffalo, I could comfortably rule out the big, slower Malcolm Kelly. Levy had shown the tendency to reach for need for the Bills’ cover 2 (Whitner, McCargo). I’ve narrowed the decision to Derrick Harvey and Keith Rivers. The value is similar, and Rivers would fill the more pressing need, but my issue is that Buffalo may see some other guys later in the draft more than capable of playing WLB in their scheme, particularly Ali Highsmith, while a pass rusher of Harvey’s caliber is going to be tough to find. I guess the determining factor is going to be money – Schobel and Kelsay make a lot of it, and they may not want to spend too much on a rotational player. Rivers is the call.

12. Denver Broncos – DeSean Jackson WR California
I’m sure a lot of Broncos fans would be against this, but I doubt any would argue that it’s something Shanahan would do – especially if Javon Walker is dealt (which is the case here). He’d replace Walker and give Denver a speed threat opposite the big Brandon Marshall, while also returning punts. I thought about Clady here, but I’m not so sure Shanahan will be looking offensive line in the first – he tried it with Foster, and he was a bust. I think he’ll stick with what has worked for him – finding system fits in mid-rounds. He’ll look for a RT later on (Zuttah?) and have Harris and Pears compete at LT.

13. Seattle Seahawks (f/Car) – Rashard Mendenahall RB Illinois
TRADE: Carolina trades #13 overall to Seattle for #25 overall, #55, and a 2009 third.
I’m guessing neither team’s fans will be too happy with this trade (but then again, I don’t care!). From Seattle’s perspective, I see RB as the biggest need by a fairly good margin. While RB is deep in this draft, Mendenhall is probably the only remaining back capable of stepping in and carrying the load, and he won’t make it to Seattle with Chicago, Detroit, Arizona, Houston, Tampa Bay, and Dallas picking ahead of them. Holmgrem will want to load up for a super bowl run before he goes out, so I doubt he has any problem parting with the extra picks. Carolina fans will probably be even more against this, as Clady would be great value here, but as I see it, they’re one of those teams that will never turn down the right offer (as they showed in a similar deal last year), and IMO, they may have another target in mind later in round one. [EDIT: Eh, I was going to give Carolina Sam Baker at #25, but they re-signed Wharton. I still like this trade].

14. Chicago Bears – Ryan Clady OT Boise State
As a Bears fan, I can definitely see Angelo bypassing the great value in Clady here in favor of Kenny Phillips, a guy who can fill the Mike Brown role when Brown isn’t available (which is often, unfortunately). I can also see Angelo reaching for Otah or Chris Williams, both being more of the mauler type than Clady. However, I’m going with the value here; Clady can hopefully start at LT with Tait sliding over to the right side (vice versa if Clady isn’t ready). A left guard will be added in free agency (I’m of the mindset that Faneca is ours, though I think I’d prefer a cheaper guy like Smiley or Lilja).

15. Philadelphia Eagles (f/Det) – Kenny Phillips S Miami
TRADE: Detroit trades #15 overall to Philadelphia for #19 overall and a third round pick.
I’m not crazy about this trade because even if Kenny Phillips doesn’t fall to Philly at #19 (which he would not), I think they’d be perfectly fine taking Calais Campbell there. However, there’s no guarantee that Calais falls either, so Philly gets aggressive and goes for their top choice – Phillips is the terrific in the box player/blitzer that Quinton Mikell is not, and he’d be a dream for Jim Johnson. The pick would give Philly some more depth at the position, where Brian Dawkins has been fragile. The two would make for a formidable duo.

16. Arizona Cardinals – Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt
Kind of a tough call here. Three guys stand out (and yes, I’m typing this before the pick) – a rush backer like Derrick Harvey, a corner like Mike Jenkins, and a left tackle like Chris Williams. I’ll rule out Jenkins because I think the Cards will be looking for a little more impact with this pick than a raw nickelback. Corner seems like more of a round 2 need, and Whisenhunt/Grimm seem like trench guys anyway. Harvey seems like the obvious way to go here...but I can’t seem to stray from the surprise pick in Williams. The Cardinals started looking for a young left tackle the second they drafted Levi Brown to play the right side...I don’t think Whisenhunt will pass on the chance to solidify his line.

17. Minnesota Vikings – Phillip Merling DE Clemson
The pick is definitely DE here, it’s just a matter of which one – Merling, Campbell, or Harvey. Harvey is the best value, and he would give the Vikings a consistent pass rushing threat off the edge – however, in Ray Edwards and Brian Robison, they already have a couple of good speed guys. LDE is the bigger concern with the unfortunate news of Kenechi Udeze’s leukemia. Merling gives Minnesota a dual threat that can rush the passer and hold up against the run.

18. Jacksonville Jaguars (f/Hou) – Derrick Harvey DE Florida
TRADE: Houston trades #18 overall and a fourth rounder to Jacksonville for #26 overall and #58 overall
I’m a little bit hesitant on this deal because it’s between two AFC South teams, but interdivision trades aren’t completely unheard of (see Philly-Dallas last year), especially when it makes complete sense for both ends. Houston trades back and picks up the second that they lost to Atlanta, while Jacksonville moves ahead of Detroit to grab a pure speed rusher. Harvey can replace Bobby McCray in Jacksonville’s end rotation and give them a pure pass rush threat that they’ve lacked.

19. Detroit Lions (f/Phi) – Dan Connor MLB Penn State
I’m not crazy about the value here, but I think Connor will top Detroit’s draft board at this point, and I don’t see many viable trade down options. The Lions cannot afford to go into 2008 with Paris Lenon as its MLB, so they bypass a shot at Derrick Harvey in order to deal down and grab the Penn State backer. I think Connor is basically a better version of Posluzsny, who is the Bills’ starter at the same position. Connor should have no trouble fitting in Marinelli’s system.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Brian Brohm QB Louisville
This pick has taken me longer than all others. I’ve been able to narrow it down to four names – Brian Brohm, Mario Manningham, Calais Campbell, and Trevor Laws. Laws would be an enormous reach here – while it wouldn’t shock me to see the Bucs take him, I can’t do it. The only other teams in the first that would even remotely consider him are the Giants and the Chargers (and those are long shots). They’d be better off hoping he falls to the second round pick. The choice between Manningham and Campbell is nearly impossible for me. I’m sure Gruden would love to have a another speed guy like Manningham opposite Galloway, but then again, a slot guy like Donnie Avery or Eddie Royal could be had later on, and give Tampa their first real return threat in the franchise’s history (Michael Spurlock doesn’t count, though, I swear to God, I called his TD before that game happened). I think I’d go Campbell over Manningham. The real question, though, is whether Tampa Bay would take Brohm. It doesn’t seem like a particularly great idea considering the holes this team has, but in the long run, it could really pay off. Brohm could come in and compete with McCown for the backup job, while taking over for Garcia in 2009 or 2010. And Gruden is a QB man....argh.....I’m going with Brohm.

21. Washington Redskins – Calais Campbell DE Miami
If not for the Walker trade, this is Malcolm Kelly, no doubt. However, I think the move makes a lot of sense, and it screams “Daniel Snyder” to me. So I look elsewhere. Corner is a need, but I think they address that in free agency – either by adding a big name guy like Samuel or Trufant, or a moderately priced guy like *** or Drayton Florence (depending on money). Either way, corner would become a later round need. I’m going to go with Calais Campbell – he fills a need, he fits the system, and he’s great value. I was also thinking Jeff Otah or Branden Albert here.

22. Dallas Cowboys (f/Cle) – Felix Jones RB Arkansas
If there’s one thing Dallas needs to come away with, it’s a RB to take some pressure off of Marion Barber III, ala Julius Jones. My only problem with this pick is that I can’t completely buy Jones topping Dallas’ draft board at this point, but with another pick six spots later, I’m not sure that really matters. With Houston sitting at #26, I think they make certain they land Jones, who, unlike a guy like Chris Johnson, could probably carry the load if Barber were to ever go down.

23. Pittsburgh Steelers – Branden Albert OG/OT Virginia
My first instinct was Jeff Otah to come in and play RT....but when making a mock, that first instinct is usually wrong. I think Albert makes more sense. He can play an effective left guard from day one as Alan Faneca’s replacement. I’m not so sure the same can be said about Jeff Otah at right tackle – at least, I’m not sure he’d be any better than Willie Colon was. Both have left tackle potential, but again, I think Albert may be the better option to play there immediately. Albert is the pick here, with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie drawing some consideration as well.

24. Tennessee Titans – Mario Manningham WR Michigan
This was actually a pretty easy pick for me. I realize most would go Malcolm Kelly here, but why? Why does Tennessee need another possession receiver? Drew Bennett, Bobby Wade, Justin Gage, Eric Moulds, Brandon Jones...that’s all Vince Young has had. Granted, Kelly is better than all of those guys, but I think Young needs a speedy playmaker to throw to. Manningham is the call.

25. Carolina Panthers (f/Sea) – Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB/S Tennessee State
When I first made this trade, I was pretty excited about it, because I was thinking that Sam Baker was such a great fit at left tackle for Carolina. Once Wharton was re-signed, I was going to undo the trade, but then I realized that Seattle still has every reason to deal up, and that Carolina has no reason not to deal down (especially with the value they received). And THEN I realized Baker still makes some sense here – either he or Wharton (probably Wharton) can move inside to play left guard, enabling Carolina to release Justin Hartwig. So Baker draws consideration. But I’m going with a surprise pick that would probably be ripped apart if there were any Panthers fans here. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Carolina has always struck me as a BPA team, and that’s definitely DRC here. Ken Lucas and his big contract can be released, allowing Richard Marshall to step in and start opposite Chris Gamble. Cromartie can either play nickel or free safety.

26. Houston Texans (f/Jax) – DaJuan Morgan S North Carolina State
Once people begin to look at DaJuan Morgan more closely, he’ll begin to rise – I actually flirted with the idea of Houston staying at #18 and taking him there. He’s got just about all you could want in a safety – top end speed and athleticism, good instincts, and he’s an excellent tackler. Texans fans may prefer Mike Jenkins here, but Fred Bennett was outstanding, from what I saw. Morgan, on the other hand, would be a significant upgrade over the group of castoffs Houston has at safety. Sam Baker was the other consideration.

27. San Diego Chargers – Jeff Otah OT Pittsburgh
Defensive back is always a consideration here, but the Chargers already drafted Paul Oliver with their fifth rounder, and they also seem to have some faith in Cletis Gordon. If the Chargers want another safety, I’d imagine A.J. Smith uses some of that cap space on one of the veteran free agents like Madieu Williams. With this pick, I think they look to address that hole at right tackle, where it seems like they’ve given up on Shane Olivea (possibly moving to guard?), and Jeromey Clary is no more than a versatile backup. I wasn’t too sure whether Otah or Cherilus would be the better fit, so I’ll just go with the value. Otah it is.

28. Dallas Cowboys – Aqib Talib CB Kansas
After taking Felix Jones with their first pick, Dallas really doesn’t have many other immediate needs, so they can just take the top player on its big board. At this spot its either Mike Jenkins, Aqib Talib, or Malcolm Kelly. I think Wade Phillips will see a little bit of Antonio Cromartie in Aqib Talib, especially if he runs well. Talib is the call.

29. Kansas City Chiefs (f/SF/f/Ind) – Mike Jenkins CB South Florida
TRADE: San Francisco trades #29 overall to Kansas City for #35 overall and a fourth round pick
The guy I’ve got in mind for San Francisco isn’t very good value, so they look to trade down. Mike Jenkins has tumbled down the board, and with a cornerback run possible near the end of the first, the Chiefs decide to deal up and grab him. Jenkins is a solid fit for the cover two, and he’s terrific value at this point. He could potentially start right away in Ty Law’s place.

30. Green Bay Packers – Sam Baker OT/OG Southern California
After missing out on Jenkins, Green Bay looks to its problems on the offensive line. Baker can step in and compete for a starting job at a guard spot, and in the long run, replace Chad Clifton or Mark Tauscher at tackle. Charles Godfrey was also a thought.

31. New York Giants – Tracy Porter CB Indiana
Porter fits the Spagnuolo mold for many of the same reasons that Aaron Ross did. He’s not overly physical and will give receivers a cushion, but he’s got a great burst to close and has terrific ball skills. He can be left on an island with a receiver, and he won’t allow anything to get past him.

ROUND TWO

32. Miami Dolphins – Joe Flacco QB Delaware
With all of the talent remaining on the board, and all the needs that Miami has, I’d normally just go with the best talent available (Kelly, Cherilus, Groves, Sims). But I’ve read that Miami has shown a lot of interest in Flacco, and after the combine, they may be fortunate if he falls to them at the top of round two. Miami would essentially be giving up on John Beck, but I doubt the new regime cares.

33. Buffalo Bills (f/STL) – Malcolm Kelly WR Oklahoma
TRADE: St. Louis trades #33 to Buffalo for #41, a fifth round pick, and a 2009 third round pick
With Kelly still on the baord, Buffalo decides to surrender some value for the chance to take a guy who they considered in the first round. He’ll give Buffalo the big receiver that they’ve lacked.

34. Atlanta Falcons – Chad Henne QB Michigan
Again, while there may be better value on the board for a team with a ton of needs, they may not want to miss out on their guy. I highly doubt Atlanta passes on all of that first round talent in favor of Matt Ryan, but they do need to add a young QB at some point. Henne can come in and compete with Redman and Harrington for the starting job.

35. San Francisco 49ers (f/KC) – Andre Caldwell WR Florida
Caldwell is one of the most underrated prospects in the draft, in my opinion. He’s polished in just about every aspect – he runs terrific routes, he’s got good size and is built well, he’s got outstanding speed and quickness, and he’s terrific after the catch. I think after seeing him play at the Senior Bowl, Nolan and Martz will agree.

36. New York Jets – Gosder Cherilus OT Boston College
Anthony Clement is below average at right tackle, and Cherilus is polished enough to take over for him immediately.

37. Oakland Raiders – Pat Sims DT Auburn
After going McFadden in the first, a defensive lineman is a must in round 2. Though knowing Al Davis, this could just as easily be Reggie Smith.

38. Baltimore Ravens – Quentin Groves DE/OLB Auburn
Groves gives the Ravens another edge threat to rotate, and insurance in case Terrell Suggs doesn’t sign a long term extension. Patrick Lee is a thought as well.

39. San Francisco 49ers – Trevor Laws DE/DT Notre Dame
Another guy that Nolan saw plenty of during the Senior Bowl (though from the opposite sideline). Laws is a little lacking in height for a 3-4 end, but he excelled in the system at Notre Dame. He’s got a terrific motor and is very stout at the point.

40. New York Jets (f/NO) – Donnie Avery WR Houston
If Laveranues Coles holds out or is dealt, New York will be down to Jerricho Cotchery and Brad Smith, who are #2 and #4 types, respectively. Avery would give the Jets an explosive slot guy and a deep throat for Kellen Clemens to throw to.

41. St. Louis Rams (f/Buf) – Oniel Cousins OT/OG Texas El Paso
Cousins will likely test very well at the combine and get a little first round buzz before all is said and done. He can come and and compete for a guard spot, while serving as the third tackle.

42. Denver Broncos – Reggie Smith S Oklahoma
I thought long and hard about Tarvares Gooden here, but I decided to go with the value. Smith can compete with Hamza Abdullah for the free safety job immediately.

43. Carolina Panthers – Tarvares Gooden OLB Miami
Another workout warrior who could get some first round buzz. He’s very similar to Jon Beason, only a little more raw. He could back up the Na’il Diggs before eventually taking over the weakiside.

44. Chicago Bears – Jamaal Charles RB Texas
Angelo has stated his intent on bringing in competition for Cedric Benson, and Charles would give the Bears a nice contrasting style of back. Ray Rice is a possibility as well.

45. Detroit Lions – Brandon Flowers CB Virginia Tech
Detroit lucks out and has the draft’s second best corner fall to them in the second round. Flowers is perfect for the cover 2 – he’s very intelligent, he’s physical and isn’t afraid to tackle, and he breaks on the ball better than anyone in this draft. BTW, I have Michael Turner going to Detroit, if that helps.

46. Cincinnati Bengals – Jerod Mayo LB Tennessee
It couldn’t hurt to add another athletic linebacker to the mix – Ahmad Brooks has some injury concerns, and Odell Thurman is always a question mark. If Brooks and Thurman can play without issue, Mayo is still an upgrade over Rashard Jeanty.

47. Minnesota Vikings – Fred Davis TE Southern California
While there’s pretty good talent available at WR, Childress and company opt to take the first tight end off the board. Davis is relatively short, but he’s got a good frame and top athleticism. He can be used like Dallas Clark or L.J. Smith.

48. Atlanta Falcons (f/Hou) – Philip Wheeler LB Georgia Tech
Offensive line is still a question and Carl Nicks would be a solid fit, but middle linebacker is also a need, and Wheeler fits the qualifications perfectly – good size, sideline to sideline speed, terrific instincts.

49. Philadelphia Eagles – Charles Godfrey CB Iowa
After trading up for Kenny Phillips, Philadelphia could still use a better nickel corner than the artis formerly known as William Peterson. Godfrey wll give them an Al Harris like presence vs. the slot receiver.

50. Arizona Cardinals – Patrick Lee CB Auburn
Part of me wants to go Justin King, and another part wants to go Chris Ellis, but I’ll just give them the best value on the board.

51. Washington Redskins – Heath Benedict OG/OT Newberry
Benedict gives the Redskins versatility on the offensive line; he can conceivably play four different positions. He can replace Pete Kendall or Jon Jansen in the long run.

52. St. Louis Rams (f/TB) – Devin Thomas WR Michigan State
TRADE: Tampa Bay trades # 52 overall to St. Louis for #65 overall and Buffalo’s fourh.
The guy I have in mind for Tampa is a reach, and Thomas is tumbling down the board, so they look to deal. St. Louis needs an eventual replacement for Isaac Bruce, and Devin Thomas is an intriguing size/speed combination.

53. Pittsburgh Steelers – James Hardy WR Indiana
Ben Roethlisberger wants a big receiver to play the Plaxico Burress role, and Hardy fits the part. He can replace Cedrick Wilson in Pittsburgh’s multiple receiver sets, sub into Pittsburgh’s redzone package, and eventually replace Hines Ward.

54. Tennessee Titans – John Carlson TE Notre Dame
After adding a speed threat in round one, the Titans get Vince a tight end who can hang onto the football. Carlson is a very good blocker as well.

55. Carolina Panthers (f/Sea) – Chris Ellis DE Virginia Tech
Ellis, at worst, can give Carolina a more reliable speed rusher than Stnaley McClover, though with a little added weight, he can become an every down end opposite Julius Peppers.

56. Cleveland Browns – Ahtyba Rubin NT Iowa State
I’m not completely sure I buy Rubin as a second rounder, but at this point, he may be worth the risk. He’d make a nice rotation partner for Ethan Kelley.

57. Miami Dolphins (f/SD) – Carl Nicks OT Nebraska
They considered taking him with the #32, so at #57, Nicks is a steal. I’m really not a fan, and would go Anthony Collins, but Sparano seems to prefer the mauler type.

58. Houston Texans (f/Jax) – Anthony Collins OT Kansas
Another one of the most underrated prospects in the draft, IMO. Charles Spencer may not be able to play LT again, if he returns, and Ephraim Salaam is only average. An athletic tackle like Collins could be a steal at this point.

59. Indianapolis Colts – Lawrence Jackson DE Southern California
The Colts’ depth behind Freeney and Mathis is a problem; Jackson won’t be quite the speed threat that Freeney and Mathis are, but he’ll give them an all around Alex Brown type to rotate.

60. Green Bay Packers – Justin King CB Penn State
I really wanted to go Jonathan Hefney here, who I think projects very well to nickel corner, but I decided it was too much of a reach. I go with more of a project in Justin King.

61. Dallas Cowboys – Lavelle Hawkins WR California
With Crayton replacing Terry Glenn as the team’s second wideout, a slot receiver would make some sense here. Hawkins is very quick and is not afraid to catch the ball in the middle of the field.

62. New England Patriots – Chris Johnson RB East Carolina
New England will try to end up with Johnson and Curtis Lofton with their next two picks. Johnson is more likely to be picked before #68, so he’s the call. He can return kicks and eventually take Kevin Faulk’s place as a third down back.

63. New York Giants – Jason Jones DE Eastern Michigan
Michael Strahan has one year left, at most. It couldn’t hurt to add another young end to the rotation to eventually take Strahan’s role, especially if Mathias Kiwanuka is to stay at WLB.

ROUND 3

64. Miami Dolphins - Limas Sweed WR Texas
I think Sweed is going to fall down the boards because of that injury, but the Dolphins decide to take a flier here. He can compete with Hagan and Ginn for playing time.

65. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (f/STL) - Eddie Royal WR Virginia Tech
Just so the Bucs can see their second pick. Royal gives Tampa Bay their first real return threat ever, as well as a very capable slot receiver.


More to come....

Caddy
02-20-2008, 01:52 AM
You seem well versed in the needs of the Buccaneers although I don't really agree with the picks. Brohm would be a decent selection, but QB isn't a drastic need yet and Campbell or Manningham would help with much bigger holes in the lineup. I hate the Royal pick. The top of the 3rd is a reach and I don't think he will really leap frog anybody already on the active roster.

vidae
02-20-2008, 02:34 AM
I'm not at all unhappy with the KC picks. Nice mock.

Hella Hyphy
02-20-2008, 03:24 AM
In that situation there the niners would draft kelly and not trade out unless they got more than a extra fourth

Addict
02-20-2008, 03:45 AM
I agree about Connor not being the best possible pick for us there. I love flowers in the second, that does make up for it. Not sure who else could be our selection at 19 though.

Matthew Jones
02-20-2008, 06:51 AM
You wrote a very good first round explanation for New England but Leodis is deficient in zone coverage and that is the defense we mostly run, so he's not a good fit

Xiomera
02-20-2008, 07:04 AM
2. Detroit trades DT Shaun Rogers to the New York Jets for a fifth and conditional 2009 3rd or 4th round pick


Umm . . . shall I say . . . NO CHANCE IN HELL!

We would never make this deal.

T-RICH49
02-20-2008, 07:25 AM
Long and Jenkins = nice KC draft

DiG
02-20-2008, 07:33 AM
i dont see walker going for more than a 4th with his injury and history of now wanting to leave two teams in a row.

other than that Id rather see cb in the first round for the skins. theres no way we could afford trufant or asante so its pointless to consider them.

Bills2083
02-20-2008, 08:40 AM
+rep for you.
And lots of it.

You give us Keith Rivers in the 1st, and you have a perfect explanation. Even how the Bills have invested a lot of money in Kelsay and Schobel, and we shouldnt spend a lot of money on a rotational player. Good Job

Great 2nd round choice too.
BTW, giving up our 2nd, 4th, and 7th for 33 would be pretty close in trade value. I'd rather do that.

AkiliSmith
02-20-2008, 08:53 AM
The Bengals will take a defensive lineman with one of the first two picks.

Mr. Myogi
02-20-2008, 09:07 AM
Chad Henne? You serious?

Sveen
02-20-2008, 09:10 AM
Glenn Dorsey :D

thebow305
02-20-2008, 10:09 AM
That's a pretty nice phins draft, but give us a corner, linebacker, or defensive lineman there in the 3rd instead of Sweed. There is no way Parcells goes offense with 3 of his first 4 picks, no chance at all.

neko4
02-20-2008, 10:21 AM
I'd like Godfrey in Green Bay in the first over Baker, but Baker is a nice fit for the scheme

regoob2
02-20-2008, 10:43 AM
Why would you want Charles over Limas Sweed, Carl Nicks, Devin Thomas, or even James Hardy?? Charles wouldn't push Benson for the starting job. I'd prefer everyone of those guys in that order ahead of him. Sweed and Nicks are 1a, 1b with me right now.

hugegmenfan
02-20-2008, 10:59 AM
good 1st round pick for the giants, but the 2nd is just eh. until strahan and kiwi make decisions give us like an OLB, DT or a S

Diehard
02-20-2008, 11:25 AM
12. Denver Broncos – DeSean Jackson WR California
I’m sure a lot of Broncos fans would be against this, but I doubt any would argue that it’s something Shanahan would do – especially if Javon Walker is dealt (which is the case here). He’d replace Walker and give Denver a speed threat opposite the big Brandon Marshall, while also returning punts. I thought about Clady here, but I’m not so sure Shanahan will be looking offensive line in the first – he tried it with Foster, and he was a bust. I think he’ll stick with what has worked for him – finding system fits in mid-rounds. He’ll look for a RT later on (Zuttah?) and have Harris and Pears compete at LT.

I think this is a very accurate assessment of the situation. Jackson has been my "darkhorse" 1st round pick for a while now. The allure of a top flight KR/PR will be very strong, as the Broncos have been badly burnt by opposing returners recently.

No matter what happens, I expect the Broncos Faithful to be unhappy with the first round pick. Only a stud DT (Dorsey or Ellis) is really going to be universally accepted, and that isn't going to happen unless we give up a lot on a trade up.

k0ng
02-20-2008, 11:40 AM
Pretty good bears draft. Clady and Charles would be awesome. I don't think we are going to sign Faneca either. I look for us to go after someone like Smiley...a guy we have had interest in before.

BeerBaron
02-20-2008, 12:01 PM
hit the needs of the bears pretty well. good job

Mr.Regular
02-20-2008, 01:06 PM
Great mock. Excellent explanations as well. I dont see anything that stands out as terrible, maybe no Early Doucet (I think hes a day 1 talent)...but really nothing to complain about. Packers picks were good (Godfrey would make a ton of sense, as would Flowers in round 1), but Baker is a possibility too.
Good work

Number 10
02-20-2008, 01:17 PM
Kiwanuka is a SLB

And if Sweed is there at 63...I don't see Reese passing on him.

foozball
02-20-2008, 01:19 PM
great texans draft

Number 10
02-20-2008, 01:25 PM
Ah I should have told you....that was a good mock. We actually have a scary amount of the same picks and I am on the fence between Dorsey and Ellis. I think Ellis has a higher upside....and Dorsey falling out of the top 5 is a definite possibility.

BaLLiN
02-20-2008, 02:38 PM
31. New York Giants – Tracy Porter CB Indiana
Porter fits the Spagnuolo mold for many of the same reasons that Aaron Ross did. He’s not overly physical and will give receivers a cushion, but he’s got a great burst to close and has terrific ball skills. He can be left on an island with a receiver, and he won’t allow anything to get past him.

You dont want corners to give big cushions in press coverage, he looked great at the senior bowl good pick, but id prefer Reggie Smith over him.

63. New York Giants – Jason Jones DE Eastern Michigan
Michael Strahan has one year left, at most. It couldn’t hurt to add another young end to the rotation to eventually take Strahan’s role, especially if Mathias Kiwanuka is to stay at WLB.

When the giants looked at him at the Senior Bowl i think they were looking mostly for a DT seeing how he really is a DT/DE hybrid in a 4-3. It really wouldnt make much sense to pick him to fill in for Strahan when we signed Tuck back to do that, Kiwanuka was announced to stay at WLB as of now. But Tollefson didnt do horrible in the playoffs, id like to see more an then we can make a judgement.

BigJohn98
02-20-2008, 02:57 PM
Sorry, the Jags would not trade with a division rival.

GB12
02-20-2008, 03:17 PM
I don't like Baker in the first, and absolutely hate King in the second.

Vikes99ej
02-20-2008, 03:27 PM
17. Minnesota Vikings – Phillip Merling DE Clemson
however, in Ray Edwards and Brian Robison, they already have a couple of good speed guys.



No. Give us Harvey, he's a perfect fit for our defense. Trust me, we do not need any more run-stoppers.

defensiveback23
02-20-2008, 03:33 PM
27. San Diego Chargers – Jeff Otah OT Pittsburgh
Defensive back is always a consideration here, but the Chargers already drafted Paul Oliver with their fifth rounder, and they also seem to have some faith in Cletis Gordon. If the Chargers want another safety, I’d imagine A.J. Smith uses some of that cap space on one of the veteran free agents like Madieu Williams. With this pick, I think they look to address that hole at right tackle, where it seems like they’ve given up on Shane Olivea (possibly moving to guard?), and Jeromey Clary is no more than a versatile backup. I wasn’t too sure whether Otah or Cherilus would be the better fit, so I’ll just go with the value. Otah it is.


Nailed the Chargers' needs down very accurately. Otah would be an excellent selection and is the perfect piece to hopefully solidify the oline. I think he is a better pick than Cherilus because he fits the mold of a true road grading RT. Madieu Williams would be the ultimate free agent signing for the Chargers in this year's class imo. Also, Olivea is now the heir apparent at RG to Goff and Oliver is being groomed to play a hybrid CB/S role in the dime defense.

xooberon
02-20-2008, 03:40 PM
this was very detailed and clearly you put in a lot of effort but i just don't like the panthers picks. the whole team and FO pretty much agrees that we need offensive playmakers so i would be pretty pissed off if we went all defense for our first three picks. we need to give whoever it is at QB, be it Jake, Moore, whoever, the best chance to succeed and ultimately they need more weapons to do this.

thefridge15
02-20-2008, 04:57 PM
Good picks for the Vikes but give us Harvey instead of Merling. Robison was a rook last year so were not expecting him to save us, and Edwards is/was on the juice and dissapointed this season. Even though Udeze was our run stopper, we still need a pass rusher because right now the run defense is the best in the league and pass d is the worst so theres a alot more to worry about in the pass d.

SaintsFanForLife
02-20-2008, 05:03 PM
I would be happy with Glenn D. I just dont see the Saints moving up that far if at all. But if it did happen it would be great pickup.

summond822
02-20-2008, 07:02 PM
angry is one way to describe how the seattle-carolina trade makes me feel...

I can understand why it makes sense to you, but it goes against the Seahawks style to trade up, they generally trade down and I find it hard to believe that they will part with their first and second and a third next year to grab a guy who will probably be there when they pick.

Unless they absolutely fall in love with Mendenhall at the combine and at his pro day workout i find it hard to believe they will pick him, let alone trade up to get him...Stewart though is another story

andyjo672
02-20-2008, 07:24 PM
Not thrilled with the Vikings draft but you deserve some serious rep for the write up. Good work, seems like we got another new valuable poster to the board.

doingthisinsteadofwork
02-20-2008, 07:29 PM
I like your Oakland mock and the reasoning as well.

G-Men88
02-20-2008, 07:54 PM
Good effort, but there is no way the Giants pass on Reggie Smith or take a DE during the whole draft.

Cashmoney
02-20-2008, 08:06 PM
Finally someone who realizes that the Titans already have a Limas Sweed in Justin Gage. Very nice second rounder because thats one of our top 3 needs as well.

DeathbyStat
02-20-2008, 08:27 PM
I'm going to finish the third round, but I'm tired right now, and I wanted to post this before the coin flip ruins everything. Some of the early comments may be outdated, as I started this a couple weeks ago, but the picks are not.

And since I've never posted one of these here, a little disclaimor: I know what I'm talking about. If you think I forgot to fill one of your team's needs, I didn't. I know all your team's needs, and I tried to fill them when possible. However, I don't just match a player with a certain position with a team according to need; I put MUCH more thought into the draft than that. I try to look at past draft trends, GM draft philospohies, system fit, etc. The result is some surprise/unconventional picks, but IMO, a decent picture as to how the draft might actually go. Basically, if someone held a gun to my head and told me to tell them EXACTLY what would happen on draft day, this is what I would tell them. So thoughtful comments would be appreciated. If you think a certain pick is bad, then I want to know why.




Pre-draft Trades

1. Denver trades WR Javon Walker to Washington for #84 overall
2. Detroit trades DT Shaun Rogers to the New York Jets for a fifth and conditional 2009 3rd or 4th round pick


1. Miami Dolphins – Chris Long DE Virginia
Right now this seems like the obvious pick. Long is probably the best overall defensive player in the draft, and he has played the 3-4 DE spot in college. He has the work ethic that Parcells/Sparano will love, and there’s the Al Groh connection to take into account as well. His versatility is intriguing as well (some believe he can stand up in the 3-4).

2. Saint Louis Rams – Vernon Gholston DE/OLB Ohio State
The word is that the Rams are going to stay with the 4-3 in 2008, but implement more 3-4 looks. They have solid pieces in place for a potential move; a defensive line of Carriker/Ryan/Adeyanju is certainly passable (depth can be added later on), while Draft and Witherspoon are both fits as ILB. What they lack is edge talent, with Leonard Little having lost more than a step, and James Hall/Brandon Chillar/Pisa Tinoisamoa only average fits at OLB. I, along with everyone else in the draft world, expect Gholston to have an amazing combine, which should be enough to bring him into top two consideration. He can give St. Louis a pass rushing threat at end, where production was non-existent last season, and in the 3-4 looks, he can give the Rams a Merriman-like presence.

3. Oakland Raiders – Darren McFadden RB Arkansas
This comes down to two guys – McFadden and Sedrick Ellis – and IMO it will be Al Davis vs. Lane Kiffin. With Justin Fargas back, I think Kiffin will be content with his RB situation, and look to bolster the other side of the ball with a Southern Cal guy in Sedrick Ellis. However, Al Davis has proven time and time again that his opinion is the only one that matters, and it seems like a Davis move to go after the big name RB in McFadden.

4. Atlanta Falcons – Sedrick Ellis DT Southern California
Dimitroff has already stated that he’s going to look at need and system fit before all else, and that QB isn’t necessarily a round one look. Ryan isn’t good value here anyway, so he’s out. For me, it comes down to Jake Long and Sed Ellis, who IMO, will have no trouble jumping Glenn Dorsey for the title of top DT. From a pure need standpoint, it’s probably Long – the Falcons have an unproven running game, and at some point, will have a young QB behind center – Long would be a big help at LT. But from a system standpoint, and a potential standpoint, it’s undoubtedly Ellis – Smith’s system is reliant upon strong, disruptive DT play (see Stroud/Henderson), and Dimitroff is from a team whose three defensive linemen were all first rounders. Ellis is the pick here.

5. Kansas City Chiefs – Jake Long OT Michigan
The Chiefs went after Alex Gibbs earlier in the offseason, whose zone blocking scheme may have made a first round offensive lineman questionable. But with Chan Gailey in, and a “safe” left tackle prospect in Jake Long still on the board, this would seem like the obvious pick. Dorsey would get a look here as well.

6. New Orleans Saints (f/NYJ) – Glenn Dorsey DT Louisiana State
TRADE: New York trades #6 overall and a fourth rounder to New Orleans for #10 overall and #40 overall
With Dorsey falling down the board, the Jets find themselves in a pretty good position of power. With nothing particularly enticing here, they decide to take the best offer. I’d expect a mini-bidding war here between Denver and New Orleans, with the Saints eventually agreeing to surrender some value. They’ll jump at the opportunity to take a big disruptive force in the middle rather than waiting at 10 and taking another CB.

7. New England Patriots (f/SF) – Leodis McKelvin CB Troy
Making a guess here was difficult before the super bowl, but now that they lost it, it’s bordering on impossible. What can the Patriots POSSIBLY do this offseason? They had the greatest team of all time, the greatest season of all time, and because of one game, they get nothing for it. How do you prepare for another 16-20 games? Randy Moss and Asante Samuel are free agents, as are Tedy Bruschi, Junior Seau, Randall ***, Eugene Wilson, and Jabar Gaffeny. Stallworth was essentially a one-year deal. Which guys do they bring back? Which guys want to come back? This is my guess – Stallworth is gone, obviously. Bruschi retires, while *** and Wilson walk. Roosevelt Colvin is restructured. Moss, Seau, and Gaffney are re-signed. I’m on the fence with Samuel. They can’t go into the season with Ellis Hobbs and a rookie starting at corner, but can they fit Samuel under the cap? And even if they can, isn’t that a bit un-Patriots-like? Ugh...I’ll have to assume he walks. But I’m not ruling anything out. Instead, I’ll say New England signs Ty Law. With the pick, New England takes the best overall corner, who seems to do just about everything well, and can return kicks while competing with Hobbs and Law for a starting role. If Samuel comes back, I’m leaning towards Clady or a trade down, BTW.

8. Baltimore Ravens - Matt Ryan QB Boston College
Baltimore could go DE, OT, or CB here, but I think they’ll be looking for a QB. Boller isn’t as terrible as some make him out to be, but I doubt he’ll have too many supporters now that Billick and company are gone. McNair will be released, and Troy Smith is no more than a backup, IMO. I see Cameron pushing for a young QB to groom, and I think Ryan grades out highest. Clady is the other option with Jonathan Ogden probably retiring, though I doubt the Ravens will want to block Jared Gaither; I think they’ll have him compete with Adam Terry on the left side, with the loser competing with Marshall Yanda on the right.

9. Cincinnati Bengals – Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon
The defense is probably the biggest problem with this team, but when Marvin Lewis comes out and states the team’s top priority is to surround Carson Palmer with more talent, I don’t know how else that can be interpreted. Rudi Johnson was hurt this season, and when he did play, he was awful. Chris Perry is constantly injured. Kenny Watson could walk in free agency. I can see Cincinnati entering the season with a rookie as the full time back, Kenny Irons a change of pace guy, and Dede Dorsey the third guy. I give Stewart the edge over Mendenhall, he’ll give the Bengals the multi-dimensional back they lacked this season.

10. New York Jets (f/NYJ) – Kentwan Balmer DE/DT North Carolina
I was thinking Derrick Harvey here as a rush backer, but that doesn’t really seem like the most Jets-like thing to do (and by Jets-like, I mean Patriots like). I wouldn’t completely rule him out, but I’m not sure that Tangini will value a pure rush backer highly. Instead I’m going to give the Jets a Ty Warren. Balmer will give New York some much-needed size at DE as well as a guy who can penetrate and collapse the pocket. This will probably be seen as a semi-reach on draft day, but you can never go wrong with the Pioli philosophy.

11. Buffalo Bills – Keith Rivers WLB Southern California
Extremely tough call here for Buffalo; especially now that Levy is out as GM and Fairchild is out as OC. If Fairchild had remained in Buffalo, I could comfortably rule out the big, slower Malcolm Kelly. Levy had shown the tendency to reach for need for the Bills’ cover 2 (Whitner, McCargo). I’ve narrowed the decision to Derrick Harvey and Keith Rivers. The value is similar, and Rivers would fill the more pressing need, but my issue is that Buffalo may see some other guys later in the draft more than capable of playing WLB in their scheme, particularly Ali Highsmith, while a pass rusher of Harvey’s caliber is going to be tough to find. I guess the determining factor is going to be money – Schobel and Kelsay make a lot of it, and they may not want to spend too much on a rotational player. Rivers is the call.

12. Denver Broncos – DeSean Jackson WR California
I’m sure a lot of Broncos fans would be against this, but I doubt any would argue that it’s something Shanahan would do – especially if Javon Walker is dealt (which is the case here). He’d replace Walker and give Denver a speed threat opposite the big Brandon Marshall, while also returning punts. I thought about Clady here, but I’m not so sure Shanahan will be looking offensive line in the first – he tried it with Foster, and he was a bust. I think he’ll stick with what has worked for him – finding system fits in mid-rounds. He’ll look for a RT later on (Zuttah?) and have Harris and Pears compete at LT.

13. Seattle Seahawks (f/Car) – Rashard Mendenahall RB Illinois
TRADE: Carolina trades #13 overall to Seattle for #25 overall, #55, and a 2009 third.
I’m guessing neither team’s fans will be too happy with this trade (but then again, I don’t care!). From Seattle’s perspective, I see RB as the biggest need by a fairly good margin. While RB is deep in this draft, Mendenhall is probably the only remaining back capable of stepping in and carrying the load, and he won’t make it to Seattle with Chicago, Detroit, Arizona, Houston, Tampa Bay, and Dallas picking ahead of them. Holmgrem will want to load up for a super bowl run before he goes out, so I doubt he has any problem parting with the extra picks. Carolina fans will probably be even more against this, as Clady would be great value here, but as I see it, they’re one of those teams that will never turn down the right offer (as they showed in a similar deal last year), and IMO, they may have another target in mind later in round one. [EDIT: Eh, I was going to give Carolina Sam Baker at #25, but they re-signed Wharton. I still like this trade].

14. Chicago Bears – Ryan Clady OT Boise State
As a Bears fan, I can definitely see Angelo bypassing the great value in Clady here in favor of Kenny Phillips, a guy who can fill the Mike Brown role when Brown isn’t available (which is often, unfortunately). I can also see Angelo reaching for Otah or Chris Williams, both being more of the mauler type than Clady. However, I’m going with the value here; Clady can hopefully start at LT with Tait sliding over to the right side (vice versa if Clady isn’t ready). A left guard will be added in free agency (I’m of the mindset that Faneca is ours, though I think I’d prefer a cheaper guy like Smiley or Lilja).

15. Philadelphia Eagles (f/Det) – Kenny Phillips S Miami
TRADE: Detroit trades #15 overall to Philadelphia for #19 overall and a third round pick.
I’m not crazy about this trade because even if Kenny Phillips doesn’t fall to Philly at #19 (which he would not), I think they’d be perfectly fine taking Calais Campbell there. However, there’s no guarantee that Calais falls either, so Philly gets aggressive and goes for their top choice – Phillips is the terrific in the box player/blitzer that Quinton Mikell is not, and he’d be a dream for Jim Johnson. The pick would give Philly some more depth at the position, where Brian Dawkins has been fragile. The two would make for a formidable duo.

16. Arizona Cardinals – Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt
Kind of a tough call here. Three guys stand out (and yes, I’m typing this before the pick) – a rush backer like Derrick Harvey, a corner like Mike Jenkins, and a left tackle like Chris Williams. I’ll rule out Jenkins because I think the Cards will be looking for a little more impact with this pick than a raw nickelback. Corner seems like more of a round 2 need, and Whisenhunt/Grimm seem like trench guys anyway. Harvey seems like the obvious way to go here...but I can’t seem to stray from the surprise pick in Williams. The Cardinals started looking for a young left tackle the second they drafted Levi Brown to play the right side...I don’t think Whisenhunt will pass on the chance to solidify his line.

17. Minnesota Vikings – Phillip Merling DE Clemson
The pick is definitely DE here, it’s just a matter of which one – Merling, Campbell, or Harvey. Harvey is the best value, and he would give the Vikings a consistent pass rushing threat off the edge – however, in Ray Edwards and Brian Robison, they already have a couple of good speed guys. LDE is the bigger concern with the unfortunate news of Kenechi Udeze’s leukemia. Merling gives Minnesota a dual threat that can rush the passer and hold up against the run.

18. Jacksonville Jaguars (f/Hou) – Derrick Harvey DE Florida
TRADE: Houston trades #18 overall and a fourth rounder to Jacksonville for #26 overall and #58 overall
I’m a little bit hesitant on this deal because it’s between two AFC South teams, but interdivision trades aren’t completely unheard of (see Philly-Dallas last year), especially when it makes complete sense for both ends. Houston trades back and picks up the second that they lost to Atlanta, while Jacksonville moves ahead of Detroit to grab a pure speed rusher. Harvey can replace Bobby McCray in Jacksonville’s end rotation and give them a pure pass rush threat that they’ve lacked.

19. Detroit Lions (f/Phi) – Dan Connor MLB Penn State
I’m not crazy about the value here, but I think Connor will top Detroit’s draft board at this point, and I don’t see many viable trade down options. The Lions cannot afford to go into 2008 with Paris Lenon as its MLB, so they bypass a shot at Derrick Harvey in order to deal down and grab the Penn State backer. I think Connor is basically a better version of Posluzsny, who is the Bills’ starter at the same position. Connor should have no trouble fitting in Marinelli’s system.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Brian Brohm QB Louisville
This pick has taken me longer than all others. I’ve been able to narrow it down to four names – Brian Brohm, Mario Manningham, Calais Campbell, and Trevor Laws. Laws would be an enormous reach here – while it wouldn’t shock me to see the Bucs take him, I can’t do it. The only other teams in the first that would even remotely consider him are the Giants and the Chargers (and those are long shots). They’d be better off hoping he falls to the second round pick. The choice between Manningham and Campbell is nearly impossible for me. I’m sure Gruden would love to have a another speed guy like Manningham opposite Galloway, but then again, a slot guy like Donnie Avery or Eddie Royal could be had later on, and give Tampa their first real return threat in the franchise’s history (Michael Spurlock doesn’t count, though, I swear to God, I called his TD before that game happened). I think I’d go Campbell over Manningham. The real question, though, is whether Tampa Bay would take Brohm. It doesn’t seem like a particularly great idea considering the holes this team has, but in the long run, it could really pay off. Brohm could come in and compete with McCown for the backup job, while taking over for Garcia in 2009 or 2010. And Gruden is a QB man....argh.....I’m going with Brohm.

21. Washington Redskins – Calais Campbell DE Miami
If not for the Walker trade, this is Malcolm Kelly, no doubt. However, I think the move makes a lot of sense, and it screams “Daniel Snyder” to me. So I look elsewhere. Corner is a need, but I think they address that in free agency – either by adding a big name guy like Samuel or Trufant, or a moderately priced guy like *** or Drayton Florence (depending on money). Either way, corner would become a later round need. I’m going to go with Calais Campbell – he fills a need, he fits the system, and he’s great value. I was also thinking Jeff Otah or Branden Albert here.

22. Dallas Cowboys (f/Cle) – Felix Jones RB Arkansas
If there’s one thing Dallas needs to come away with, it’s a RB to take some pressure off of Marion Barber III, ala Julius Jones. My only problem with this pick is that I can’t completely buy Jones topping Dallas’ draft board at this point, but with another pick six spots later, I’m not sure that really matters. With Houston sitting at #26, I think they make certain they land Jones, who, unlike a guy like Chris Johnson, could probably carry the load if Barber were to ever go down.

23. Pittsburgh Steelers – Branden Albert OG/OT Virginia
My first instinct was Jeff Otah to come in and play RT....but when making a mock, that first instinct is usually wrong. I think Albert makes more sense. He can play an effective left guard from day one as Alan Faneca’s replacement. I’m not so sure the same can be said about Jeff Otah at right tackle – at least, I’m not sure he’d be any better than Willie Colon was. Both have left tackle potential, but again, I think Albert may be the better option to play there immediately. Albert is the pick here, with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie drawing some consideration as well.

24. Tennessee Titans – Mario Manningham WR Michigan
This was actually a pretty easy pick for me. I realize most would go Malcolm Kelly here, but why? Why does Tennessee need another possession receiver? Drew Bennett, Bobby Wade, Justin Gage, Eric Moulds, Brandon Jones...that’s all Vince Young has had. Granted, Kelly is better than all of those guys, but I think Young needs a speedy playmaker to throw to. Manningham is the call.

25. Carolina Panthers (f/Sea) – Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB/S Tennessee State
When I first made this trade, I was pretty excited about it, because I was thinking that Sam Baker was such a great fit at left tackle for Carolina. Once Wharton was re-signed, I was going to undo the trade, but then I realized that Seattle still has every reason to deal up, and that Carolina has no reason not to deal down (especially with the value they received). And THEN I realized Baker still makes some sense here – either he or Wharton (probably Wharton) can move inside to play left guard, enabling Carolina to release Justin Hartwig. So Baker draws consideration. But I’m going with a surprise pick that would probably be ripped apart if there were any Panthers fans here. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Carolina has always struck me as a BPA team, and that’s definitely DRC here. Ken Lucas and his big contract can be released, allowing Richard Marshall to step in and start opposite Chris Gamble. Cromartie can either play nickel or free safety.

26. Houston Texans (f/Jax) – DaJuan Morgan S North Carolina State
Once people begin to look at DaJuan Morgan more closely, he’ll begin to rise – I actually flirted with the idea of Houston staying at #18 and taking him there. He’s got just about all you could want in a safety – top end speed and athleticism, good instincts, and he’s an excellent tackler. Texans fans may prefer Mike Jenkins here, but Fred Bennett was outstanding, from what I saw. Morgan, on the other hand, would be a significant upgrade over the group of castoffs Houston has at safety. Sam Baker was the other consideration.

27. San Diego Chargers – Jeff Otah OT Pittsburgh
Defensive back is always a consideration here, but the Chargers already drafted Paul Oliver with their fifth rounder, and they also seem to have some faith in Cletis Gordon. If the Chargers want another safety, I’d imagine A.J. Smith uses some of that cap space on one of the veteran free agents like Madieu Williams. With this pick, I think they look to address that hole at right tackle, where it seems like they’ve given up on Shane Olivea (possibly moving to guard?), and Jeromey Clary is no more than a versatile backup. I wasn’t too sure whether Otah or Cherilus would be the better fit, so I’ll just go with the value. Otah it is.

28. Dallas Cowboys – Aqib Talib CB Kansas
After taking Felix Jones with their first pick, Dallas really doesn’t have many other immediate needs, so they can just take the top player on its big board. At this spot its either Mike Jenkins, Aqib Talib, or Malcolm Kelly. I think Wade Phillips will see a little bit of Antonio Cromartie in Aqib Talib, especially if he runs well. Talib is the call.

29. Kansas City Chiefs (f/SF/f/Ind) – Mike Jenkins CB South Florida
TRADE: San Francisco trades #29 overall to Kansas City for #35 overall and a fourth round pick
The guy I’ve got in mind for San Francisco isn’t very good value, so they look to trade down. Mike Jenkins has tumbled down the board, and with a cornerback run possible near the end of the first, the Chiefs decide to deal up and grab him. Jenkins is a solid fit for the cover two, and he’s terrific value at this point. He could potentially start right away in Ty Law’s place.

30. Green Bay Packers – Sam Baker OT/OG Southern California
After missing out on Jenkins, Green Bay looks to its problems on the offensive line. Baker can step in and compete for a starting job at a guard spot, and in the long run, replace Chad Clifton or Mark Tauscher at tackle. Charles Godfrey was also a thought.

31. New York Giants – Tracy Porter CB Indiana
Porter fits the Spagnuolo mold for many of the same reasons that Aaron Ross did. He’s not overly physical and will give receivers a cushion, but he’s got a great burst to close and has terrific ball skills. He can be left on an island with a receiver, and he won’t allow anything to get past him.

ROUND TWO

32. Miami Dolphins – Joe Flacco QB Delaware
With all of the talent remaining on the board, and all the needs that Miami has, I’d normally just go with the best talent available (Kelly, Cherilus, Groves, Sims). But I’ve read that Miami has shown a lot of interest in Flacco, and after the combine, they may be fortunate if he falls to them at the top of round two. Miami would essentially be giving up on John Beck, but I doubt the new regime cares.

33. Buffalo Bills (f/STL) – Malcolm Kelly WR Oklahoma
TRADE: St. Louis trades #33 to Buffalo for #41, a fifth round pick, and a 2009 third round pick
With Kelly still on the baord, Buffalo decides to surrender some value for the chance to take a guy who they considered in the first round. He’ll give Buffalo the big receiver that they’ve lacked.

34. Atlanta Falcons – Chad Henne QB Michigan
Again, while there may be better value on the board for a team with a ton of needs, they may not want to miss out on their guy. I highly doubt Atlanta passes on all of that first round talent in favor of Matt Ryan, but they do need to add a young QB at some point. Henne can come in and compete with Redman and Harrington for the starting job.

35. San Francisco 49ers (f/KC) – Andre Caldwell WR Florida
Caldwell is one of the most underrated prospects in the draft, in my opinion. He’s polished in just about every aspect – he runs terrific routes, he’s got good size and is built well, he’s got outstanding speed and quickness, and he’s terrific after the catch. I think after seeing him play at the Senior Bowl, Nolan and Martz will agree.

36. New York Jets – Gosder Cherilus OT Boston College
Anthony Clement is below average at right tackle, and Cherilus is polished enough to take over for him immediately.

37. Oakland Raiders – Pat Sims DT Auburn
After going McFadden in the first, a defensive lineman is a must in round 2. Though knowing Al Davis, this could just as easily be Reggie Smith.

38. Baltimore Ravens – Quentin Groves DE/OLB Auburn
Groves gives the Ravens another edge threat to rotate, and insurance in case Terrell Suggs doesn’t sign a long term extension. Patrick Lee is a thought as well.

39. San Francisco 49ers – Trevor Laws DE/DT Notre Dame
Another guy that Nolan saw plenty of during the Senior Bowl (though from the opposite sideline). Laws is a little lacking in height for a 3-4 end, but he excelled in the system at Notre Dame. He’s got a terrific motor and is very stout at the point.

40. New York Jets (f/NO) – Donnie Avery WR Houston
If Laveranues Coles holds out or is dealt, New York will be down to Jerricho Cotchery and Brad Smith, who are #2 and #4 types, respectively. Avery would give the Jets an explosive slot guy and a deep throat for Kellen Clemens to throw to.

41. St. Louis Rams (f/Buf) – Oniel Cousins OT/OG Texas El Paso
Cousins will likely test very well at the combine and get a little first round buzz before all is said and done. He can come and and compete for a guard spot, while serving as the third tackle.

42. Denver Broncos – Reggie Smith S Oklahoma
I thought long and hard about Tarvares Gooden here, but I decided to go with the value. Smith can compete with Hamza Abdullah for the free safety job immediately.

43. Carolina Panthers – Tarvares Gooden OLB Miami
Another workout warrior who could get some first round buzz. He’s very similar to Jon Beason, only a little more raw. He could back up the Na’il Diggs before eventually taking over the weakiside.

44. Chicago Bears – Jamaal Charles RB Texas
Angelo has stated his intent on bringing in competition for Cedric Benson, and Charles would give the Bears a nice contrasting style of back. Ray Rice is a possibility as well.

45. Detroit Lions – Brandon Flowers CB Virginia Tech
Detroit lucks out and has the draft’s second best corner fall to them in the second round. Flowers is perfect for the cover 2 – he’s very intelligent, he’s physical and isn’t afraid to tackle, and he breaks on the ball better than anyone in this draft. BTW, I have Michael Turner going to Detroit, if that helps.

46. Cincinnati Bengals – Jerod Mayo LB Tennessee
It couldn’t hurt to add another athletic linebacker to the mix – Ahmad Brooks has some injury concerns, and Odell Thurman is always a question mark. If Brooks and Thurman can play without issue, Mayo is still an upgrade over Rashard Jeanty.

47. Minnesota Vikings – Fred Davis TE Southern California
While there’s pretty good talent available at WR, Childress and company opt to take the first tight end off the board. Davis is relatively short, but he’s got a good frame and top athleticism. He can be used like Dallas Clark or L.J. Smith.

48. Atlanta Falcons (f/Hou) – Philip Wheeler LB Georgia Tech
Offensive line is still a question and Carl Nicks would be a solid fit, but middle linebacker is also a need, and Wheeler fits the qualifications perfectly – good size, sideline to sideline speed, terrific instincts.

49. Philadelphia Eagles – Charles Godfrey CB Iowa
After trading up for Kenny Phillips, Philadelphia could still use a better nickel corner than the artis formerly known as William Peterson. Godfrey wll give them an Al Harris like presence vs. the slot receiver.

50. Arizona Cardinals – Patrick Lee CB Auburn
Part of me wants to go Justin King, and another part wants to go Chris Ellis, but I’ll just give them the best value on the board.

51. Washington Redskins – Heath Benedict OG/OT Newberry
Benedict gives the Redskins versatility on the offensive line; he can conceivably play four different positions. He can replace Pete Kendall or Jon Jansen in the long run.

52. St. Louis Rams (f/TB) – Devin Thomas WR Michigan State
TRADE: Tampa Bay trades # 52 overall to St. Louis for #65 overall and Buffalo’s fourh.
The guy I have in mind for Tampa is a reach, and Thomas is tumbling down the board, so they look to deal. St. Louis needs an eventual replacement for Isaac Bruce, and Devin Thomas is an intriguing size/speed combination.

53. Pittsburgh Steelers – James Hardy WR Indiana
Ben Roethlisberger wants a big receiver to play the Plaxico Burress role, and Hardy fits the part. He can replace Cedrick Wilson in Pittsburgh’s multiple receiver sets, sub into Pittsburgh’s redzone package, and eventually replace Hines Ward.

54. Tennessee Titans – John Carlson TE Notre Dame
After adding a speed threat in round one, the Titans get Vince a tight end who can hang onto the football. Carlson is a very good blocker as well.

55. Carolina Panthers (f/Sea) – Chris Ellis DE Virginia Tech
Ellis, at worst, can give Carolina a more reliable speed rusher than Stnaley McClover, though with a little added weight, he can become an every down end opposite Julius Peppers.

56. Cleveland Browns – Ahtyba Rubin NT Iowa State
I’m not completely sure I buy Rubin as a second rounder, but at this point, he may be worth the risk. He’d make a nice rotation partner for Ethan Kelley.

57. Miami Dolphins (f/SD) – Carl Nicks OT Nebraska
They considered taking him with the #32, so at #57, Nicks is a steal. I’m really not a fan, and would go Anthony Collins, but Sparano seems to prefer the mauler type.

58. Houston Texans (f/Jax) – Anthony Collins OT Kansas
Another one of the most underrated prospects in the draft, IMO. Charles Spencer may not be able to play LT again, if he returns, and Ephraim Salaam is only average. An athletic tackle like Collins could be a steal at this point.

59. Indianapolis Colts – Lawrence Jackson DE Southern California
The Colts’ depth behind Freeney and Mathis is a problem; Jackson won’t be quite the speed threat that Freeney and Mathis are, but he’ll give them an all around Alex Brown type to rotate.

60. Green Bay Packers – Justin King CB Penn State
I really wanted to go Jonathan Hefney here, who I think projects very well to nickel corner, but I decided it was too much of a reach. I go with more of a project in Justin King.

61. Dallas Cowboys – Lavelle Hawkins WR California
With Crayton replacing Terry Glenn as the team’s second wideout, a slot receiver would make some sense here. Hawkins is very quick and is not afraid to catch the ball in the middle of the field.

62. New England Patriots – Chris Johnson RB East Carolina
New England will try to end up with Johnson and Curtis Lofton with their next two picks. Johnson is more likely to be picked before #68, so he’s the call. He can return kicks and eventually take Kevin Faulk’s place as a third down back.

63. New York Giants – Jason Jones DE Eastern Michigan
Michael Strahan has one year left, at most. It couldn’t hurt to add another young end to the rotation to eventually take Strahan’s role, especially if Mathias Kiwanuka is to stay at WLB.

ROUND 3

64. Miami Dolphins - Limas Sweed WR Texas
I think Sweed is going to fall down the boards because of that injury, but the Dolphins decide to take a flier here. He can compete with Hagan and Ginn for playing time.

65. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (f/STL) - Eddie Royal WR Virginia Tech
Just so the Bucs can see their second pick. Royal gives Tampa Bay their first real return threat ever, as well as a very capable slot receiver.


More to come....

I hope the bungals are dumb enough to take offense in the first round as you suggest they will.

They should draft D the first four rounds or more.

Cashmoney
02-20-2008, 08:40 PM
Why in the blue hell would you quote the whole mock over again?

ThePudge
02-20-2008, 09:30 PM
Solid Mock Draft Overall, fairly creative which is always nice to see. You seem to be an open minded guy which is also good. I'd like to kind of confront you about the Bengals picks though.

Jonathan Stewart is a great player and an excellent physical specimen. However, the Bengals drafting a running back there makes no sense to me. The running game suffered this year, no doubt about that. However, you have to remember the Bengals have Rudi Johnson (who has a nice large contract), Chris Perry (still riding that rookie contract), Kenny Watson, DeDe Dorsey, and 2007 2nd Round pick Kenny Irons, who was the talk of training camp until an unfortunate knee injury. The amount of money that'd be invested in the running back positional would be absolutely insane if the Bengals were to use their Top 10 pick on Stewart. Not to mention the position still has plenty of talent and potential with Rudi between the tackles, Irons as a speed back, and Watson as 3rd Down receiver. The rushing stats for the Bengals were greatly affected last year by injuries and injuries to offensive linemen (Levi Jones, Willie Anderson, Eric Ghaiciuc).

Now, am I going to sit here and say to you for sure who they will take? Absolutely not. I can't say with confidence that the Bengals will go defense in the First Round. With Stacy Andrews being tagged as the team's franchise player I now doubt that they'll be thinking OT early, where as before I thought a guy like Jeff Otah was a strong posibility because of his size, athleticism, and maybe even versatility. Though it remains a distant thought. DeSean Jackson is a faint possibility, his PR value would be an excellent addition to a struggling returns unit, and he would help ease the Chad Johnson situation, providing insurance there and an additional deep threat. However, while all of that remains possible, a guy like Donnie Avery, Dexter Jackson, or Eddie Royal in the 2nd or 3rd would be a more reasonable guess.

I can say, with some confidence, that the Bengals will go Defensive Line in the first round if they do not address those needs in free agency. Marvin Lewis did say the the offseason's #1 priority was to improve the teams lines (more particularly the Defensive Line.) A defensive end like Phillip Merling or Derrick Harvey could be the guy, as could Kentwan Balmer. It would not shock me if the Bengals reached at #9, in fact, I'd actually be willing to wager that they will take a player that is not a consensus Top 10 or 15 pick (That is unless Ellis, Gholston, Dorsey fell). The Bengals, who may be moving to a 3-4 could definitely use any of these guys, Balmer/Merling at DE, or Derrick Harvey at OLB.

As for the 2nd Round, I'm not sure about Mayo there. Word is the new defensive coordinator and linebackers coach favor bigger LB's (see Baltimore Ravens). Nevada's Ezra Butler could be a nice addition as a big guy with tremendous athleticism or (less of a reach) even Phillip Wheeler if they do, in fact, go Linebacker in the 2nd. If a 3-4 is, in fact, in the works Quentin Groves makes sense there. For the first time in awhile the Bengals have actually come out and said they need an athletic, receiving threat at TE, which was one of the main things Marvin meant when he said Carson Palmer needed help. Fred Davis or Martellus Bennett are two options in the 2nd Round who "could be taught to block" (quote from Marvin Lewis and Tight Ends coach Jon Hayes). Though it's more likely, I believe, the team chases a guy like Dustin Keller or Jermichael Finley in the 3rd or 4th. (Though Finley could definitely rise into the 2nd with an impressive workout this week).

A big question through all of this is how much the Bengals trust 2nd-Year FS Marvin White. Madieu Williams will almost certainly be gone next year, but how much does the team think they'll miss him. Personally, I think they'll take the gamble, playing White, signing a veteran backup as a mentor and insurance policy. If the team, though, thought that this was an issue Kenny Phillips arises as a possibility in the 1st (though Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie can also play there) or perhaps DaJuan Morgan in the 2nd (though I believe he'll rise as well). Stay tuned on that situation.

fenikz
02-20-2008, 09:41 PM
You would of been much better off giving us Jenkins, Harvey, or DRC in the 1st, we have spent quite a bit of money on Gandy and he most definitely earned it, Grimm loves the guy and the Cardinals gave up the 8th fewest sacks in the league while passing the 2nd most times

Yung Flippa
02-20-2008, 10:10 PM
Okay 1st for Baltimore. Good 2nd rounder.
I don't sure about Morgan to Houston in the 1st. In the 2nd, I think they'd rather take Justin King for Depth at the Corner spot or Lavalle Hawkins for depth at the wideout.

jetsman309
02-20-2008, 10:30 PM
40. New York Jets (f/NO) – Donnie Avery WR Houston
If Laveranues Coles holds out or is dealt, New York will be down to Jerricho Cotchery and Brad Smith, who are #2 and #4 types, respectively. Avery would give the Jets an explosive slot guy and a deep throat for Kellen Clemens to throw to.

I actually like what you did with the Jets and I think you have a good perspective on what we need except the only thing i hope is that donnie avery is more of a deep threat than a deep throat for Kellen Clemens

iloxygenil
02-21-2008, 03:44 PM
I know Atlanta needs a QB...but man it'd be nice to get Ellis and Cherilus AND Wheeler in the first 2 rounds...

So swapping Henne with Cherilus could be better for the team...although I do like Henne...

sportsnerd23
02-21-2008, 04:09 PM
Nice trade for the eagles. Like the pick.