2008 The Year of ...

[toonsterwu]

I'm on a thread starting craze. It's almost like a run on a position in the draft. Seriously, how often do you see me start threads that aren't in the mock draft area.

Anyhow, I left it open ended. I think it's always good to evaluate the draft as the process moves forward.

For me, as of now, 2008 will the the year of

The Overdraft.

This expands on a post I made in the one millionth Matt Ryan thread. I thought it was worth discussion, but it might not. I'm not going to copy and paste that post over, as that's pointless.

Now, every draft is relative. An overdraft could be relative to the values within said draft, or in general. And everything draft wise is subjective.

I'm focusing on the broader perspective here.

I count 4 guys that I think would be solid top 10 values year in, year out. That's it. 4. Now, certainly, in bad years, like this year, things are different. Again, very subjective and relative. These 4 guys are guys that I view as potential top 10 picks year in and year out based on their combined package: Chris Long, Jake Long, Darren McFadden, Glenn Dorsey. And Dorsey's health issues are certainly a concern. I count 12-15 guys (after the top 4) that I consider to be solid first round grades. That's me.

I mean, look at the edge players for a second. Gholston is a very good player. It's easy to forget how bad the 2005 draft was. There was a spread option QB that lacked top tools, a stud WR ... that was inconsistent, a RB that wasn't the man in college, a RB that was the man in college but had durability concerns, a RB that was the man but had wear and tear concerns, a WR that didn't play for a year, a WR that rocketed up the draft as the result of the combines and one year of play, and so forth. You get the point. And yet, in that draft, Demarcus Ware and Shawne Merriman both went in the teens. At best, Gholston is equal to them. I think he's actually behind. It's no knock on Gholston. Certainly, there's more 3-4 teams now, but there were plenty then. Sedrick Ellis. Intriguing player. What exactly does he do that makes him that superior to Mike Patterson or Tank Johnson? Kentwan Balmer? Let's not go there just yet.

Overdrafting comes in all shapes and sizes. Look at the QB class. After the top 5 or 6, maybe 7, there's a precipitous drop in QB talent. Yet, there stands to reason that a QB or 2will go from the 3rd-5th. Let's look at the WR class. The 1st round WR's will not be significantly greater in value than the 2nd rounders. TE? Same there. OT? Is Jake Long a rock solid top 5 grade? Should a 2nd OT really, from a broad perspective be considered in the top 10? I mean, look at it this way. Is Ryan Clady or Jeff Otah (both debated as the number 2 OT) guys that you feel are top 10 picks every year? There stands a high degree of certainty that one will go top 10. What's so great about the 2nd tier OT's in value?

Let's look at the rest of the defensive players. There's a significant drop in DE talent after the top 7. Yet, there's going to be DE's filling in the 2nd/3rd. What about DT's? I've spoken highly of the developing DT class, but it's all relative. LB's? It's not an impressive lot, to say the least. I'm being dead honest when I say this, but how many LB's really are guys that you view as solid top 2 round guys every year? For me? 4. CB? I don't think the top of the CB class is significantly better than guys like Richard Marshall, Justin Miller, or Chris Houston at the same point.

That said, there's a long time to go in the process. This isn't to say there isn't talent, just that there's going to be overdrafting. It's a commentary on value moreso than anything.

Now, this isn't to say there's plusses in this draft. Certainly, another possibility could be 2008, the year of CB Depth.

I must've noted around 15 CB's that I think could be in that 3rd round mix. 15 CB's are not going in that 3rd round mix.

[scottyboy]

the year of Rutgers: 3 combine invites/attendees. i think that's a record!!!!!!!!
sorry toon, you know I couldn't resist

[BaLLiN]

Team meshing- Giants not the best team before playoffs, but beat patriots because of everyone doing their jobs.

Upsets-Giants beating Patriots after being double digit underdogs and going up against a 18-0 team who couldve been regarded as the best team of all time.

[Patriots16-0]

the small school players.
Joe Flacco QB Delaware
Josh Johnson QB San Diego
Dexter Jackson WR App State
Jerome Simpson WR Coastal Carolina
Heath Benedict OT Newberry
Chad Rinehart OG Northern Iowa
Kerry Brown OG App State
Kendall Langford DE Hampton
Brian Johnston DE Gardner-Webb
Curtis Johnson DE/OLB Clark Atlanta
DRC CB Tenn St

[BuddyCHRIST]

I think the comparison between Gholston and Merriman and in relation to how Gholston is being overvalued is a bit misleading. While the 3-4 rush backer has been around for a long time it had been in a bit of a lull as far as a flat out dominating player. Merriman/Ware's success and immediate impact cause the position to be higher drafted now. Kameron Wimbley wasn't near the prospect Merriman was and he was drafted 11.

[schmiddog]

Wasn't Merriman shackled by the "doesn't live up to his physical prowess"? label (at least some of the time, i.e. some consistency problems). Gholston, it seems, isn't hindered as much by this. I could be wrong

[Cashmoney]

This will be the year of the WR. Mark it down.

[toonsterwu]

a) As noted, everything is relative and subjective.

b) By no means am I saying that draft positioning from year to year should be a permanent reference. What I saying, though, is that using it as a relative reference is a legitimate question in this context. The context of talent shouldn't be judged from the prism of one dimension. Keep in mind that there are/were many that currently feel that

i) Vernon Gholston is a better 4-3 end than a 3-4 rush backer (count me in that group)
ii) Demarcus Ware and Shawne Merriman were both considered as 4-3 ends as well (Washington took a long look at Merriman before moving forward to Carlos Rogers)

Short of it is, I'm not really looking at the position, and more the talent, and it is my belief that the talent of said Gholston is being overvalued in context to a broad perspective, not within the context of this year. Again, everything is relative and subjective, and I can buy the other argument as well.

c) Let's compare Kamerion Wimbley and Vernon Gholston for a second then. There were very few that legitimately thought of Wimbley, talent wise, as a top 10 type. Now, it isn't that fairly to compare them directly, but let's do it anyways. Both were superb athletes, Gholston with an advantage in strength, and Wimbley with an advantage in mobility (slight speed and agility advantage). Both were highly productive collegians. What distinction would merit Gholston as a superior talent?

d) One small comment: Early on, there were many that thought Gholston and Ellis were mid-firsts. Prior to the lists being finalized, that's what a lot of people were buzzing about. Problem is, the depth at the top isn't there. It's not as if anyone that was highly ranked has significantly dropped. I mean, Cherilus and Baker dropped as the season went forward. There hasn't been any specific player that I believe was highly touted that has dropped solely AFTER the season was over.

e) schmiddog, I'm not sure what you are referencing there. Shawne was a very productive player all throughout his career at MD.

f) That said, it's a long way to go. And again, subjective and relative.

[bearsfan_51]

Who is this toonster fellow? I think he's got a future here at NFLDC.

[BamaFalcon59]

Out of Robert Gallery, Joe Thomas, D'Brickshaw Furguson, and Jake Long how would you rank them?

McFadden, Peterson, Bush?

Dorsey, Amobi Okoye, Dwayne Robertson, Kevin Williams, Tommie Harris?

Chris Long, Gaines Adams, Mario Williams, Julius Peppers?

Basically, how elite are these four elite guys?

I think that Chris Long and McFadden are middle of the pack elite, while most would consider Jake Long bottum of the offensive tackle prospect list I made, although I like his style. I think only Dorsey stands above when compared to recent top defensive tackles.

Just some more bad luck for the Falcons.

[BaLLiN]

The first time in a long time where a rookie DB makes it to the pro bowl as a CB or S (not like Devin Hester for Returns)

[toonsterwu]

bf is a funny man.

Bama, depends on when you are ranking them. If you are taking it from the same point in time, process wise, I believe it would be (just to be clear folks, this isn't how I prefer it then or now, it's what I believe they would be ordered if all were in the same draft)

OT - Robert Gallery, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Joe Thomas, Jake Long

RB - Reggie Bush, Adrian Peterson, Darren McFadden

DT - Glenn Dorsey, Dewayne Robertson, Kevin Williams, Amobi Okoye, Tommie Harris

DE - Mario Williams, Julius Peppers, Chris Long, Gaines Adams

I'll stick with what I've said. If healthy, Glenn Dorsey is the elite talent in this draft. Here's a guy, when healthy, that can 2-gap, is a dominant UT. The issue is health, and until I know somethin definitive, I have a tough time moving him.

Some may take offense to the DE list with Adams last, but with Long's workouts, I think he may get the edge there. But certainly, different teams, different strokes.

I was not a huge fan of Bush or Peterson. To be honest, I may be in the small minority that prefers McFadden over Peterson still (I believe Darren hides his body better). Just to be clear, I've always fully acknowledged that Adrian could have huge years. I just am not sold on him staying healthy for a career. That said, both Reggie and Adrian, I think, were considered ahead of McFadden.

Ot is the toughest one. In retrospect, Gallery wasn't as good as advertised. But folks loved him. Just loved him. The tougher call was between Brick and Joe THomas. Keep in mind, though, that had Thomas declared a year earlier, he would've been behind Brick and many felt that, while Thomas had a good senior year, it wasn't great. Again, we are talking about them as prospects, as clearly Joe has been the better pro.

DT list was tough. It's easy to forget how much people loved Robertson, but I think Dorsey would go ahead. Williams/Okoye/Harris are all close.

[thetedginnshow]

If Gholston is drafted at #6 and Harvey at #9, who was over-drafted more?

[bearsfan_51]

I think this is the year of unbalanced positions.

What I mean by that is, there are some positions that are exceptionally strong (particularly the non-QB skill positions), and then others that are just crap (linebacker, safety). I can't remember the last time there was such extreme diversity from position to position and from round to round. Even if you look within the positions (say offensive tackle) there are huge peaks and valleys from player to player in some cases, and general consistancy in others (wide receiver).

[toonsterwu]

As a side note,

Ellis vs. Dorsey - I think a healthy Dorsey is ahead, but I think Ellis is close enough. What bridges the gap for Sedrick? I mean, I think Dorsey is the better UT and the better 2-gapper. That said, what bridges the gap is Sed's ability to leverage. I think leveraging is a lost art amongst DL talents. The ability to leverage can make up for a lot. Most times, you look for those big bodied guys or the quick guys. There's small DT's that leverage sometimes as a result of their size, not because they know how to leverage.

I think Sedrick knows how to leverage, and that's huge. That's why I think he's a good 3-4 NT fit. I want a NT that can leverage and push. Drive and explode. I think Sedrick can do that.

Now, why am I concerned about Sedrick at 3-4 NT? More because I wonder about his durability. How many plays can he work in there at a high level?

I still am not sold Sedrick is a dominant UT, but that may be a result of how he was used.

As another side note, I think Trevor Laws is good at leveraging.

[toonsterwu]

If Gholston is drafted at #6 and Harvey at #9, who was over-drafted more?

I'd say Gholston. I think of both guys, in a neutral environment, as mid-first types, with Gholston ahead, but not by that much. I still believe the better raw pass rusher, if it can be quantified, is Derrick Harvey.

[thetedginnshow]

Haha. Alright.

[eaglesalltheway]

This will be the year ofthe OT. It may not end up with the greatest amount of talent, but there could be a record set for first round OTs taken, and that is something that the media will focus on, so that is the thing that will stick around the longest, and what will be easiest to remember.

[DaBear89]

The Year of the Back-end...no real elites like you talked about up top, but from the mid/late 1st to mid 3rd, a BUNCH of quality pro prospects will be available

[DonWoods33]

Compared to the last couple of years it is a poorer draft. I did hear a guy from Ourlads saying the he had 300+ guys with draftable grades, more then most drafts. My theory has always been this, when you have a weak Quarterback class it normally is an average to mediocre draft. Conversely when you have three or four strong QB prospects it makes for a good one. Look back at the 83 draft and look how many great players there were, recently the 04 and 06 draft was the same way. When your having three quarterbacks with high grades that get picked in top dozen or so picks. I feel it really pushes down the rest of the talent, so it is more spread out. Since everyone overvalues the position so much. Thats not the case this year. I do think that this is one of the better years in a long while for potential Left Tackles. In a lot of years you hardly get three guys that even have the physical tools. This year there seems to be at least four or five, Clady, Long, Otah, Nicks, Williams, and Baker, that have solid tools at least. And it wouldn't surprise to see them all go in the first round.
Personally I don't think Gholston going first is really all that bad. Norocki on PFW has pointed to the same you have that Merriman or Ware would have been legit Overall number 1's (I guess more based on what they have done, and what the others taken above them haven't) Since they have been super productive it does make sense in a way that he would be too, given the similarities. In any case it'[s still interesting to follow. Thinking back aways it seemed that the 81 and 83 drafts were heavy on talent, but the 82 was real thin. It's kind of like the markets, booms and bust and a little in between. Oh how I wanted Mike Singletary in 81!

[BamaFalcon59]

Compared to the last couple of years it is a poorer draft. I did hear a guy from Ourlads saying the he had 300+ guys with draftable grades, more then most drafts. My theory has always been this, when you have a weak Quarterback class it normally is an average to mediocre draft. Conversely when you have three or four strong QB prospects it makes for a good one. Look back at the 83 draft and look how many great players there were, recently the 04 and 06 draft was the same way. When your having three quarterbacks with high grades that get picked in top dozen or so picks. I feel it really pushes down the rest of the talent, so it is more spread out. Since everyone overvalues the position so much. Thats not the case this year. I do think that this is one of the better years in a long while for potential Left Tackles. In a lot of years you hardly get three guys that even have the physical tools. This year there seems to be at least four or five, Clady, Long, Otah, Nicks, Williams, and Baker, that have solid tools at least. And it wouldn't surprise to see them all go in the first round.
Personally I don't think Gholston going first is really all that bad. Norocki on PFW has pointed to the same you have that Merriman or Ware would have been legit Overall number 1's (I guess more based on what they have done, and what the others taken above them haven't) Since they have been super productive it does make sense in a way that he would be too, given the similarities. In any case it'[s still interesting to follow. Thinking back aways it seemed that the 81 and 83 drafts were heavy on talent, but the 82 was real thin. It's kind of like the markets, booms and bust and a little in between. Oh how I wanted Mike Singletary in 81!

Of course the Falcons get a top three pick in a year where the quarterback would be ranked below Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Brady Quinn, JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisburger, Eli Manning, and Phillip Rivers.

[DonWoods33]

Of course the Falcons get a top three pick in a year where the quarterback would be ranked below Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Brady Quinn, JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisburger, Eli Manning, and Phillip Rivers.

Their like cursed or something. They did get to draft Steve Bartkowski pretty high, back in 75 I think. He was damn good for a while. If you think back to when they drafted Favre in 91 he went after the infamous Dan McQuire, so there is hope, if they only hadn't traded him, who knows what would have happened?

[sportsnerd23]

The year of the linemen! My latest mock has 17 in the first round

[Iamcanadian]

I heard and read more than once on NFL.com that this is the best OT class in the last 20 years. Drafts always get picked apart and drafts without a sensational QB almost always are viewed as weak. This draft like all others has its weaknesses and its strengths, besides OT's, RB's look solid, and CB looks deep.
It is always rather silly to rate a draft before 5 years have passed, I've definitely seen drafts that were a lot weaker than this one both in the top 5 and in its depth. I'd still rate this draft as average overall, just not a lot of skill players if your looking for a QB or a WR.

[jballa838]

The Year of. . . Indecision and Difference.
Why: The top of the draft is basically set in terms of who is in the top echlon, but the tops for positions is really a debatable subject. There is not a single position where the #2 is set in stone, wheither it be a battle between 1-2 (IMO DE, OLB, ILB, DT, TE, Long Snapper, Kicker, Punter) or 1/2-6+ (IMO QB, HB, FB, WR, OT, Interior Line, CB, S) and even the top 10 is debatable on who goes where and there is no true #1-3 players.

[iloxygenil]

The Falcons really are cursed...but here's to hoping that Jake Long can break that curse.

The thing about this draft that I find interesting is that I agree totally with the amount of first round talents there are this year, maybe 20 at the most, but when you look at guys who deserve a 2nd round grade, there are closer to 75 meaning that the value in this draft to me lies in the top-middle of the third round. It seems like the talent is so extremely pedestrian this year, but that talent is spread out so deep. The problem with the QBs is that NONE of them are a top 15 talent, none are a top 20 or maybe even 25...but one will be picked in the top 10 prolly and maybe as many as 4 in the first round, but there are guys who will be there the #8-10 QBs this year, in the top of the 3rd round that are on the same level as the #1 QB.

It's strange, the RBs...McFadden is 'elite' but honestly Mendenhall and Stewart are better pro prospects than he is, guys like Ray Rice and Tashard Choice who are considered 3rd round projections are guys who could really come in and be feature backs. When you look at WRs...who should go in round 1? None of them, but undoubtedly a couple of them will.

The Tackles in this class...wow...there are so many great ones. The CBs...same deal...but none of them seem to jump out ahead...sure it's nice to see Mike Jenkins run in the 4.2s unofficially (which means somewhere that's someone's official time that they're using, but that's something totally different.) DRC gets a lot of love because he's a friggin gifted athlete and his cousin is an absolute baller. But what about a Brandon Flowers? He's not a track star, but man he's a football player, and someone is going to get a STEAL out of that kid if he ends up going late round 2 early round 3 (Again where I feel the true value lies in this draft)

I'm excited to see how this plays out, I'm excited that Free Agency is going as well as it is, it's making the NFL even more interesting with all these Madden-esque trades. I'm really looking forward to see how things shake out, and I'm really hoping that everything aligns for the Falcons and they can land a Michael Turner in FA, and a Jake Long/Carl Nicks in the draft, and can be competitive this season.