FA1
03-13-2008, 11:34 PM
1. Miami Dolphins - Chris Long, 34OLB, Virginia
With change to the 34 scheme and the FA additions of Jason Ferguson to play NT and Randy Starks to play DE, DTs Glenn Dorsey and Sedrick Ellis, who were once considered top candidates, are now pretty much out of the equation. Bill Parcells loves two things more than anything else in football: running the ball behind a powerful OL and edge rushers like Lawrence Taylor and DeMarcus Ware. That brings three candidates to the front: DE/OLBs Chris Long and Vernon Gholston and OT Jake Long, and I believe that is their order on the Dolphins' board. Chris Long, to me, is the top overall player in the draft. Forget the bloodlines, although it does help, this guy goes 100% on every play and has proven to be a better athlete than most expected. He is a natural to play OLB in the 34. Vernon Gholston is more of a physical presence, but is not as fluid or natural in space as Chris. OT Jake Long is simply not worthy of the #1 overall pick, in my opinion.
2. St. Louis Rams - Vernon Gholston, 43DE, Ohio State
Contrary to popular belief, the Rams are actually in decent shape at DT, having moved last year's 1st rounder Adam Carriker inside. It's true that La'Roi Glover's football days are nearly over, but Clifton Ryan and Claude Wroten are waiting in the wings. DE is a position of much greater need, with the release of James Hall, Leonard Little's best days behind him, and no depth to speak of. OT Jake Long has been a popular choice, citing the deteriorating health and overall play of franchise LT Orlando Pace. The fact of the matter is, if Pace can remain healthy, with former 1st round pick Alex Barron manning the other side and waiting to take over at LT, the Rams would be spending the #2 pick, and the money that comes with it, on an OG, while still having a glaring need on the other side of the ball. It's just not practical.
3. Atlanta Falcons - Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Everywhere I look, I see people picking Matt Ryan to the Falcons. If that happens at #3, I feel this franchise, which cannot afford any more mistakes, is making another big one. Regardless of what anyone says, I will not believe Ryan is worthy of being a top 5 pick. I don't even consider him a top 10 pick. I'm not even sold on him being the best QB in the draft. The Falcons would be much better served to target Joe Flacco or Chad Henne with their 2nd round pick. By waiting, they may even get lucky enough to find either Ryan or Brohm still available in the 2nd. I'm not saying that will happen, but I'm saying it could. The Falcons obviously need a QB, but they also have desperate needs at both DT and OT, with much more worthy players, Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis, and Jake Long, available to fill one of those needs. Dorsey would be the most fan-pleasing pick, and since that is very important to the organization at this point, that is the way they have to lean.
4. Oakland Raiders - Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
This is where it all gets interesting... I have no doubt that the top two players on Oakland's board are DEs Chris Long and Vernon Gholston. Chris Long obviously carries his dad's legacy with the silver and black, while Gholston is the freakish athlete Al Davis covets. In this scenario, however, both are off the board. However, as Davis checks his board, he can't help but notice that Darren McFadden is still available. Davis will obviously be tempted, but he cannot, in good sense, take McFadden, especially after re-signing Justin Fargas, a similar style RB, to an extension. That doesn't mean he won't, just that he can't in good sense.
However, with McFadden on the board, it opens up trade possibilities that the Raiders would love to explore. Having to pay the money for last year's #1 overall pick, and overpaying numerous free agents this off-season, the Raiders are pretty strapped for cash and would benefit from not having to pay this year's #4 pick. They also have more holes than one pick can fill, so they would greatly benefit from having the extra picks a trade would bring. This may be where Jerry Jones steps up and makes his move, although it cannot be assumed.
Speaking of those many holes, with the retirement of Warren Sapp and the release of Barry Sims, the Raiders have huge needs at both DT and OT. They did sign OT Kwame Harris for whatever that's worth. At those two positions, with Dorsey off the board, they're looking at Sedrick Ellis and Jake Long. Ellis would be more of a fan-favorite pick, being from USC, but there are two strong cases to be made for Long. First, they need to protect their prized QB JaMarcus Russell. Second, it would keep him away from the division rival Chiefs, who are salivating at the opportunity to draft him. However, despite the strong cases I just made, I still believe if the choice is between those two, the selection will be Ellis.
5. Kansas City Chiefs - Jake Long, OT, Michigan
Rejoice! While it is certain that Jake Long is the top player on their board, it is far from certain that he will be available. Every team picking ahead of them can make a strong case to select Long and it obviously just takes one deciding to pull the trigger to kill the Chiefs' dreams. If Long is off the board, the Chiefs' first instinct will be to move down 3-7 spots to be in better position not to reach for OTs Ryan Clady or Chris Williams. If McFadden is on the board, as he is in this case, they will have suitors. If they cannot find a trade partner, I believe they would rather select DT Sedrick Ellis or Glenn Dorsey, if they're available, than reach for Clady or Williams.
6. New York Jets - Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
The Jets would love to trade out of this spot to grab a WR later in the round. As I've said for the third straight pick, if McFadden is on the board, there will be suitors, especially Jerry Jones. At this point, if they cannot find a partner, and with Gholston off the board, it would surprise everyone if McFadden is not the pick. If both Gholston and McFadden are off the board and they can't move down, I believe they would go for Keith Rivers. You can never have too many LBs, especially running a 34 scheme, and it would keep him from the rival Patriots.
7. New England Patriots - Keith Rivers, ILB, USC
With the losses of Asante Samuel (Phi) and Randall *** (NO) in free agency, CB is a position of definite need and they are likely to use multiple draft picks to address that need. However, Samuel was a 4th round pick and *** was an UFA. Returning starter Ellis Hobbs was a 3rd round pick. The Patriots simply know how to draft CBs later in the draft and will likely target guys like Brandon Flowers, who would be a perfect fit should he be around when they pick in the 2nd, Trae Williams, or DeJuan Tribble, who would be a great fits in the 4th. Along with those facts, there are no CBs in this draft worth the #7 overall pick. That said, with Teddy Bruschi and Junior Seau nearing the end of their careers and no depth behind them, ILB is also a huge need. True, Mike Vrabel and Adalius Thomas are both capable of playing inside, but they shouldn't. Why hurt one position to help another? Keith Rivers is a fast and fluid LB, who played outside at USC, but would be a perfect fit inside in the Patriots' 34 scheme.
8. Baltimore Ravens - Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
The Ravens could go many ways with this pick, depending on who is available. They could take a QB, considering their endless struggles at the position, however, having busted on Kyle Boller, they may hesitate to pull the trigger in the 1st. They may determine that it would be better to take their chances with whoever falls to them in the 2nd, likely Flacco or Henne. With the aging of their starters at CB, they could go in that direction, likely targeting Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Should DTs Glenn Dorsey or Sedrick Ellis or LB Keith Rivers be available, they would be hard to let pass. However, their biggest need is at OT, where they need to find a replacement for Jonathan Ogden. It may be that they already have his replacement in Jared Gaither, although if they don't have that confidence in him, they would likely select either Ryan Clady or Chris Williams here. The two are very closely rated, but for now, I give Clady the slight advantage.
9. Cincinnati Bengals - Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame
This scenario pretty much plays out as the worst-case for the Bengals, with both top DTs and Keith Rivers off the board.. or does it? In reality, Laws may be exactly what this organization needs. He is the type of all-out player that could raise the level of play of the entire defense. Many expect them to target a DE, citing the departure of Justin Smith, but they signed Antwan Odom to replace him and still have Robert Geathers on the other side. It may not be great, but it's a lot better than what they have inside. The LB position is a terrible mess, but it's too high for Dan Connor here. "Oh, but it's not too high for Trevor Laws?" you ask. Well, I firmly believe that Laws is near, if not in the same class as Dorsey and Ellis.
10. New Orleans Saints - Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State
Despite the additions of Jason David last year and Randall *** this off-season, the CB position is far from solid. The same can be said about the LB position, despite the recent additions of Jonathan Vilma and Dan Morgan. However, with Keith Rivers off the board, there is no LB worthy of the pick. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is a long, lean, super-athletic small-school CB who has proven since his first day in Mobile that he belongs with the big boys. He is the tallest (6'1.5"), fastest (4.29/4.33), and overall most athletic (38.5" vj, 10'11" bj, 4.17 ss, 6.74 3-cone) of the top CBs, also possessing the best ball skills and play-making ability and more than adequate strength (17 reps of 225). I don't even need to bring up his relation to not only SD CB Antonio Cromartie, but also former Oakland Raiders 1st round pick Fabian Washington, because he's a good enough player in his own right. I know I just did, but I didn't need to.
With change to the 34 scheme and the FA additions of Jason Ferguson to play NT and Randy Starks to play DE, DTs Glenn Dorsey and Sedrick Ellis, who were once considered top candidates, are now pretty much out of the equation. Bill Parcells loves two things more than anything else in football: running the ball behind a powerful OL and edge rushers like Lawrence Taylor and DeMarcus Ware. That brings three candidates to the front: DE/OLBs Chris Long and Vernon Gholston and OT Jake Long, and I believe that is their order on the Dolphins' board. Chris Long, to me, is the top overall player in the draft. Forget the bloodlines, although it does help, this guy goes 100% on every play and has proven to be a better athlete than most expected. He is a natural to play OLB in the 34. Vernon Gholston is more of a physical presence, but is not as fluid or natural in space as Chris. OT Jake Long is simply not worthy of the #1 overall pick, in my opinion.
2. St. Louis Rams - Vernon Gholston, 43DE, Ohio State
Contrary to popular belief, the Rams are actually in decent shape at DT, having moved last year's 1st rounder Adam Carriker inside. It's true that La'Roi Glover's football days are nearly over, but Clifton Ryan and Claude Wroten are waiting in the wings. DE is a position of much greater need, with the release of James Hall, Leonard Little's best days behind him, and no depth to speak of. OT Jake Long has been a popular choice, citing the deteriorating health and overall play of franchise LT Orlando Pace. The fact of the matter is, if Pace can remain healthy, with former 1st round pick Alex Barron manning the other side and waiting to take over at LT, the Rams would be spending the #2 pick, and the money that comes with it, on an OG, while still having a glaring need on the other side of the ball. It's just not practical.
3. Atlanta Falcons - Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Everywhere I look, I see people picking Matt Ryan to the Falcons. If that happens at #3, I feel this franchise, which cannot afford any more mistakes, is making another big one. Regardless of what anyone says, I will not believe Ryan is worthy of being a top 5 pick. I don't even consider him a top 10 pick. I'm not even sold on him being the best QB in the draft. The Falcons would be much better served to target Joe Flacco or Chad Henne with their 2nd round pick. By waiting, they may even get lucky enough to find either Ryan or Brohm still available in the 2nd. I'm not saying that will happen, but I'm saying it could. The Falcons obviously need a QB, but they also have desperate needs at both DT and OT, with much more worthy players, Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis, and Jake Long, available to fill one of those needs. Dorsey would be the most fan-pleasing pick, and since that is very important to the organization at this point, that is the way they have to lean.
4. Oakland Raiders - Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
This is where it all gets interesting... I have no doubt that the top two players on Oakland's board are DEs Chris Long and Vernon Gholston. Chris Long obviously carries his dad's legacy with the silver and black, while Gholston is the freakish athlete Al Davis covets. In this scenario, however, both are off the board. However, as Davis checks his board, he can't help but notice that Darren McFadden is still available. Davis will obviously be tempted, but he cannot, in good sense, take McFadden, especially after re-signing Justin Fargas, a similar style RB, to an extension. That doesn't mean he won't, just that he can't in good sense.
However, with McFadden on the board, it opens up trade possibilities that the Raiders would love to explore. Having to pay the money for last year's #1 overall pick, and overpaying numerous free agents this off-season, the Raiders are pretty strapped for cash and would benefit from not having to pay this year's #4 pick. They also have more holes than one pick can fill, so they would greatly benefit from having the extra picks a trade would bring. This may be where Jerry Jones steps up and makes his move, although it cannot be assumed.
Speaking of those many holes, with the retirement of Warren Sapp and the release of Barry Sims, the Raiders have huge needs at both DT and OT. They did sign OT Kwame Harris for whatever that's worth. At those two positions, with Dorsey off the board, they're looking at Sedrick Ellis and Jake Long. Ellis would be more of a fan-favorite pick, being from USC, but there are two strong cases to be made for Long. First, they need to protect their prized QB JaMarcus Russell. Second, it would keep him away from the division rival Chiefs, who are salivating at the opportunity to draft him. However, despite the strong cases I just made, I still believe if the choice is between those two, the selection will be Ellis.
5. Kansas City Chiefs - Jake Long, OT, Michigan
Rejoice! While it is certain that Jake Long is the top player on their board, it is far from certain that he will be available. Every team picking ahead of them can make a strong case to select Long and it obviously just takes one deciding to pull the trigger to kill the Chiefs' dreams. If Long is off the board, the Chiefs' first instinct will be to move down 3-7 spots to be in better position not to reach for OTs Ryan Clady or Chris Williams. If McFadden is on the board, as he is in this case, they will have suitors. If they cannot find a trade partner, I believe they would rather select DT Sedrick Ellis or Glenn Dorsey, if they're available, than reach for Clady or Williams.
6. New York Jets - Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
The Jets would love to trade out of this spot to grab a WR later in the round. As I've said for the third straight pick, if McFadden is on the board, there will be suitors, especially Jerry Jones. At this point, if they cannot find a partner, and with Gholston off the board, it would surprise everyone if McFadden is not the pick. If both Gholston and McFadden are off the board and they can't move down, I believe they would go for Keith Rivers. You can never have too many LBs, especially running a 34 scheme, and it would keep him from the rival Patriots.
7. New England Patriots - Keith Rivers, ILB, USC
With the losses of Asante Samuel (Phi) and Randall *** (NO) in free agency, CB is a position of definite need and they are likely to use multiple draft picks to address that need. However, Samuel was a 4th round pick and *** was an UFA. Returning starter Ellis Hobbs was a 3rd round pick. The Patriots simply know how to draft CBs later in the draft and will likely target guys like Brandon Flowers, who would be a perfect fit should he be around when they pick in the 2nd, Trae Williams, or DeJuan Tribble, who would be a great fits in the 4th. Along with those facts, there are no CBs in this draft worth the #7 overall pick. That said, with Teddy Bruschi and Junior Seau nearing the end of their careers and no depth behind them, ILB is also a huge need. True, Mike Vrabel and Adalius Thomas are both capable of playing inside, but they shouldn't. Why hurt one position to help another? Keith Rivers is a fast and fluid LB, who played outside at USC, but would be a perfect fit inside in the Patriots' 34 scheme.
8. Baltimore Ravens - Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
The Ravens could go many ways with this pick, depending on who is available. They could take a QB, considering their endless struggles at the position, however, having busted on Kyle Boller, they may hesitate to pull the trigger in the 1st. They may determine that it would be better to take their chances with whoever falls to them in the 2nd, likely Flacco or Henne. With the aging of their starters at CB, they could go in that direction, likely targeting Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Should DTs Glenn Dorsey or Sedrick Ellis or LB Keith Rivers be available, they would be hard to let pass. However, their biggest need is at OT, where they need to find a replacement for Jonathan Ogden. It may be that they already have his replacement in Jared Gaither, although if they don't have that confidence in him, they would likely select either Ryan Clady or Chris Williams here. The two are very closely rated, but for now, I give Clady the slight advantage.
9. Cincinnati Bengals - Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame
This scenario pretty much plays out as the worst-case for the Bengals, with both top DTs and Keith Rivers off the board.. or does it? In reality, Laws may be exactly what this organization needs. He is the type of all-out player that could raise the level of play of the entire defense. Many expect them to target a DE, citing the departure of Justin Smith, but they signed Antwan Odom to replace him and still have Robert Geathers on the other side. It may not be great, but it's a lot better than what they have inside. The LB position is a terrible mess, but it's too high for Dan Connor here. "Oh, but it's not too high for Trevor Laws?" you ask. Well, I firmly believe that Laws is near, if not in the same class as Dorsey and Ellis.
10. New Orleans Saints - Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State
Despite the additions of Jason David last year and Randall *** this off-season, the CB position is far from solid. The same can be said about the LB position, despite the recent additions of Jonathan Vilma and Dan Morgan. However, with Keith Rivers off the board, there is no LB worthy of the pick. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is a long, lean, super-athletic small-school CB who has proven since his first day in Mobile that he belongs with the big boys. He is the tallest (6'1.5"), fastest (4.29/4.33), and overall most athletic (38.5" vj, 10'11" bj, 4.17 ss, 6.74 3-cone) of the top CBs, also possessing the best ball skills and play-making ability and more than adequate strength (17 reps of 225). I don't even need to bring up his relation to not only SD CB Antonio Cromartie, but also former Oakland Raiders 1st round pick Fabian Washington, because he's a good enough player in his own right. I know I just did, but I didn't need to.