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View Full Version : Why you CANNOT spend a top 10 pick on a QB unless you are 100% SURE he is ELITE...


FA1
03-18-2008, 08:47 PM
And maybe not even then!

Since 1998, a span of 10 drafts, there have been 16 QBs taken in the top 10 overall. I will say the jury is still out on 6 of them, all of the guys drafted in 2004 or later. Of the other 10, 6 can be considered busts (Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington, and Byron Leftwich). Of the remaining four, one is currently in jail. That means of those 10 top 10 QBs taken between 1998 and 2003, only 3 are currently legit starters in the league. This isn't baseball where .300 is considered a success. How can you invest the considerable amount of money and years of patience it takes to draft a QB in the top 10, knowing the success rate is at or under 40% (depending on whether you consider Michael Vick a success or not)?

There have been 12 other QBs taken in the 1st round since 1998, bringing the total number of 1st round QBs to 28. Again, the jury is still out on 4 more of them, although Roethlisberger has stepped into the legit category. Chad Pennington falls somewhere in the middle ground between legitimate and illegitimate, and Daunte Culpepper was legit before his injury. However, 5 more can be added to the bust column (Cade McNown, Patrick Ramsey, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, and J.P. Losman).

To recap the numbers:
Top 10 QBs
16 total
6 awaiting judgment
3 legit starters
1 phenom in jail
6 busts (60%+ failure rate)

1st round QBs
28 total
10 awaiting judgment
4 legit starters
1 formerly legit starter
1 average starter
1 phenom in jail
11 busts (61.1%+ failure rate)

Now let's attack this argument from a different angle.

There are 32 teams in the league. Four of those teams are starting Pro Bowl-caliber former 1st rounders. Nine are starting 1st rounders who I've left the jury out on, although that jury has almost reached a positive verdict on Eli Manning and a less-than-positive verdict on Alex Smith. Four teams have former 1st rounders, two of which I've labeled busts, competing for the starting job (McNair, Pennington, Harrington, and Grossman). Three teams are starting former 2nd rounders (Brees, Beck-reach, and Jackson-major reach). Three more teams are going with former 3rd rounders (Croyle, Schaub-who I compared to Brady coming out, and Edwards-who I had as a possible late 1st rounder last year). A whopping NINE teams are starting QBs who were 2nd day picks or undrafted entirely. I consider six of those nine to be at least solid starters, excluding Derek Anderson, Jon Kitna, and Jake Delhomme. Still, SIX solid NFL starting QBs taken in the 4th round or later.

If I were in charge of an NFL team, even with a dire need at QB, I would not take a QB in the top 10 unless I was 100% sure that he is an elite prospect. I am sure there is NOT an elite QB prospect in this year's class. Matt Ryan is not an elite prospect. Brian Brohm is not. Neither is Joe Flacco, nor Chad Henne. There is no Peyton Manning. No Carson Palmer.

Eli Manning, Vince Young, and JaMarcus Russell all had tools worthy of being picked in the top 10. Alex Smith did not... and we see where he is today. I thought I liked Philip Rivers more than anyone when he was coming out, as I had him slotted in the mid 1st when others still had him in the 2nd and even 3rd round. I was obviously wrong, because even I'm not sure I would have taken him in the top 10. Conversely, I was sold on Roethlisberger as a top 10 pick. Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler were right on the border and were drafted accordingly.

Maybe I've strayed from the point a bit, but to reiterate, there is no elite QB prospect in this year's draft, and I would not ever spend a top 10 pick, top 10 money, and top 10 patience on a QB I was not 100% sure of. I would rather dedicate a 2nd day pick each year to find one or more of those hidden gems.

ThePudge
03-18-2008, 08:51 PM
If you think you have a better chance at getting your starting QB in the 6th Round go right ahead, I'll stick with the good old fashioned formula...

FA1
03-18-2008, 08:52 PM
I didn't say there were better odds, I'm saying there is significantly less setback if you miss.

BaLLiN
03-18-2008, 08:58 PM
its not always the player, its also the coaches, you wont suffer as a severe setback in drafting a player BPA but if a QB is BPA then it makes sense, you can suffer a setback with any position if you select a player high, if a QB doesnt have players around him making plays then his stats are lower and it makes him seem more like a bust. While selecting any other player their stats dont show missed tackles, dropped catches, etc. QB is a much harder position so of course its going to be harder to get a franchise QB...

ThePudge
03-18-2008, 09:00 PM
Maybe so, but if I'm picking in the Top 10 and don't have a steady starter at QB, that probably means I need some help right now. Rather than try to take a flier on a late round guy and develop him, I'd go with the safer pick with more upside.

Matt Ryan does not have JaMarcus Russell's upside for example, but Ryan should be able to play from Day One which alone makes him a 1st/2nd Round QB prospect. In addition, Ryan has no true flaws physcially. He's 6'4 3/4 228, is fairly athletic (he moves very well in the pocket), he has a strong arm, is very accurate and has a maturity about him that is beyond his years. As far as upside goes, he may not be that freak like Russell or Ryan Leaf, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. Ryan is a very solid all around prospect and should be able to step in right away and help an NFL Franchise. I know it doesn't sound quite right, but one could make the argument that Matt Ryan is this year's draft's top prospect.

toonsterwu
03-18-2008, 09:01 PM
The problem is, while there is less setback, there also is less capability of finding a quality return. And in the NFL, the easiest way to building a consistently strong team is still through finding that QB. Yes, there are always hidden gems each and every year, some guys that never got the opportunity, and others that were in the wrong place, but the chances of finding a quality QB is still higher at the top of the draft than at the bottom for very understandable reasons. This isn't an argument for or againist Matt Ryan, although I think most know where I stand on that. This is an argument for drafting a franchise QB if you believe one exists.

On Alex Smith - While he deserves some of the blame for this past year, he also was injured. His supporting cast was also bad, skillwise and offensively. His OC wasn't up to the task. Short of it is, I think the jury is still out on Alex. Now, next year, it's make or break time. But it's easy to forget that it was only a year ago where people felt that Alex Smith was rapidly improving and many thought he would have a breakout year.

swordman
03-18-2008, 09:01 PM
I think that the failure rate that you are talking about is about 90% after the secound round hence if you need a franchise caller you have better chances to hit it right in the firstand secound round and since QB is the most important position on the field if you want to build a winning team you got to start by this position so you have to draft QB early

BeerBaron
03-18-2008, 09:04 PM
ive personally always believed you should totally confident in the QB you want to take anywhere in the draft.

you cant just take a guy because hes there, that really doesnt work out

BaLLiN
03-18-2008, 09:04 PM
I think that the failure rate that you are talking about is about 90% after the secound round hence if you need a franchise caller you have better chances to hit it right in the firstand secound round and since QB is the most important position on the field if you want to build a winning team you got to start by this position so you have to draft QB early

hes also talking about the setback that you could face by selecting early in the first, those players at the top of the draft are the highest caliber that year, the players that can dramatically affect your team, if you mess that pick up then you just lost a huge chance to better your team.

farfromforgotten
03-18-2008, 09:11 PM
I can kind of see what you are saying but...

At the time when Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington, and Byron Leftwich (I chose the same group that you listed as busts) where coming out of college you could have predicted that none of them deserved to be 1st round picks?

Packman1957
03-18-2008, 09:13 PM
You may have a point, but every pick is a gamble no matter what position you are picking from. Sure the success ratios may not be great with the QB position, but what other choice do teams like the Falcons have. I can gurantee they aren't going anywhere with QB's Joey Harrington or Chris Redman, I don't care if they added Jerry Rice in his prime, it won't matter because they have no QB to get him the ball. Please just name one team who made it deep in the playoffs without a good QB lately. The fact is there are none. So what are you suggesting teams without a QB should do, wait till the late rounds to try and find that rare hidden gem and just keep repeating that process until they strike gold. No that would be dumb. I almost would rather take that gamble in the early rounds, because that gamble could really pay off huge if it is successful. Also you rarely ever will find any elite quarterbacks fall into free agency, so really your only option is through the draft.

FA1
03-18-2008, 09:13 PM
Maybe so, but if I'm picking in the Top 10 and don't have a steady starter at QB, that probably means I need some help right now. Rather than try to take a flier on a late round guy and develop him, I'd go with the safer pick with more upside.

Matt Ryan does not have JaMarcus Russell's upside for example, but Ryan should be able to play from Day One which alone makes him a 1st/2nd Round QB prospect. In addition, Ryan has no true flaws physcially. He's 6'4 3/4 228, is fairly athletic (he moves very well in the pocket), he has a strong arm, is very accurate and has a maturity about him that is beyond his years. As far as upside goes, he may not be that freak like Russell or Ryan Leaf, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. Ryan is a very solid all around prospect and should be able to step in right away and help an NFL Franchise. I know it doesn't sound quite right, but one could make the argument that Matt Ryan is this year's draft's top prospect.

I have nothing wrong with taking a QB in the top 10 if I'm 100% confident in him. A big part of what I'm saying is that I do not have that confidence in any of the QBs in this year's class. Therefor, it is my firm belief that any team that were to take one of the QBs in the top 10 this year will be making an over-investment at best and a big mistake that will cost that team millions of dollars and years of hope at worst.

I am also not saying if I have a major need, I'd still wait to address it in the later rounds. I just cannot over-draft a QB in the top 10 to address the need. 2nd round? Sure. Free Agency? Trade? If the right guy is available for the right price, of course. However, I would do my best by reserving a late pick each year for a QB project, to keep the depth on the team good enough to not be ever in dire need.

neko4
03-18-2008, 09:14 PM
The problem is, while there is less setback, there also is less capability of finding a quality return. And in the NFL, the easiest way to building a consistently strong team is still through finding that QB. Yes, there are always hidden gems each and every year, some guys that never got the opportunity, and others that were in the wrong place, but the chances of finding a quality QB is still higher at the top of the draft than at the bottom for very understandable reasons. This isn't an argument for or againist Matt Ryan, although I think most know where I stand on that. This is an argument for drafting a franchise QB if you believe one exists.

On Alex Smith - While he deserves some of the blame for this past year, he also was injured. His supporting cast was also bad, skillwise and offensively. His OC wasn't up to the task. Short of it is, I think the jury is still out on Alex. Now, next year, it's make or break time. But it's easy to forget that it was only a year ago where people felt that Alex Smith was rapidly improving and many thought he would have a breakout year.

I agree about Smith. 4 different OC's in all 4 years. His development has been severly mishandled.

bored of education
03-18-2008, 09:15 PM
Your logic is to say..lets not draft a QB until the 5th, 6th, 7th round for 5 years and one is bound to be the next Tom Brady.


Their are other elements that allow for a QB to become good; coaching, line, work ethic and desire etc.

neko4
03-18-2008, 09:15 PM
Isnt the sucess rate of 2nd day picks even worse though?

toonsterwu
03-18-2008, 09:17 PM
Far worse. Now, I do buy the idea of drafting a QB every year. QB's always have the potential of getting higher than expected value. Ron Wolf did a wonderful job with that (adding QB's that is).

FA1
03-18-2008, 09:17 PM
I can kind of see what you are saying but...

At the time when Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington, and Byron Leftwich (I chose the same group that you listed as busts) where coming out of college you could have predicted that none of them deserved to be 1st round picks?

No, with those examples, I'm simply making the case that the failure rate is extremely high even among those who you DO consider elite, which is why the first line of my post says "And maybe not even then!"

FA1
03-18-2008, 09:19 PM
but what other choice do teams like the Falcons have.

Do you want a list? haha

bored of education
03-18-2008, 09:19 PM
Ryan Leaf is the only ELITE QB Prospect I can recall FLOPPING. Leftwhich, Carr, Harrington, Smith weren't even close to ELITE. Just best available QBs

FA1
03-18-2008, 09:23 PM
Please just name one team who made it deep in the playoffs without a good QB lately.

The Bears made it to the Super Bowl last year with Rex Grossman. Does that count as both recent and without a good QB?

MaxV
03-18-2008, 09:26 PM
Ryan Leaf is the only ELITE QB Prospect I can recall FLOPPING. Leftwhich, Carr, Harrington, Smith weren't even close to ELITE. Just best available QBs

Tim Couch was getting quiet a bit of hype also.

Look, I agree with the idea that a QB that is picked in the top 10 should be both talented and polished, but it's not always that easy.

No QB goes into the NFL and becomes great from day 1.

Guys like Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer both struggled during their rookie seasons.

regoob2
03-18-2008, 09:27 PM
I dont think a team can be afraid to take a guy cause of bust potential. I you like a guy take him. No 2 players are the same and you cant not take a guy cause of history.

FA1
03-18-2008, 09:28 PM
Ryan Leaf is the only ELITE QB Prospect I can recall FLOPPING. Leftwhich, Carr, Harrington, Smith weren't even close to ELITE. Just best available QBs

I was high enough on Leftwich to consider him a top 10 pick. I was hot and cold on both Carr and Harrington. I wouldn't have considered either to be top 10 picks. They were both picked out of dire need, which is what I've argued needs to be avoided. How have those teams fared since those picks? Millions of dollars lost and years of setback. I mentioned my thoughts about Smith, although I hear the arguments about his rough upbringing.

neko4
03-18-2008, 09:30 PM
2005 Draft
Orton- Illiegit, but still has some potential
Lefors- CUT
Orlovsky- Illegit
McPherson- no where to be found
Cassell- career backup
Fitzpatrick- one good game

2004 Draft
McCown- Decent backup, still has potential
Krenzel- ?
Hall- ?
Harris- ?
Sorgi- Best QB EVER!!!!!!!
Smoker- ?
Navarre- ?
Pickett- ?
Bramlet- ?
Mauck- ?
Symons- ?
Van Pelt- ?

2003
Wallace- might turn out good
St. Pierre- ?
Henson- did he go back to baseball?
Bollinger- ?
Klingsbury- ?
Hamdan- The best QB, in the NFL Europe
Dorsey- Decent backup

2002
Garrard- Decent starter
Davey- ?
Fasani- ?
Kittner- ?
Doman- ?
Nall- The future career backup behind Rodgers
O'Sullivan- Decent backup
Burford- ?
Kelly- ?
Curry- Now a WR
Pate- ?

2001
Weinke- rhymes with Twinkie
Rosenfels- potential starter
Jesse Palmer- Bachelor! ESPN Analyst
McMahon- once a starter
Feeley- backup
Booty- Older bro of JD, i think he just got a dui
Heupel- ?

2000
Bulger- finally a starter, who's future is a bit doubtful
Wynn- ?
Brady- !!!!!!!!
Husak- ?
Rattay- Decent backup
Jackson- ?
Hamilton- ?

1999
Germaine- ?
Brooks- Once a good starter, now ?
Daft- ?
Bishop
Greisen
Covington

1998
Hasselback- !!!!!!!!
Moreno- ?



Either round you pick in, your screwed

P-L
03-18-2008, 09:31 PM
The odds go down SIGNIFICANTLY as you go down each round. Here is a look at Rounds 2, 3, and 4 over the last ten years.

QB's Drafted in Round 2 (1998-2007)
Total Drafted: 10
Jury Still Out: 5
Legitimate Starters: 1
Failure Rate: 80%

QB's Drafted in Round 3 (1998-2007)
Total Drafted: 15
Jury Still Out: 3
Legitimate Starters: 1
Failure Rate: 91.6%

QB's Drafted in Round 4 (1998-2007)
Total Drafted: 11
Jury Still Out: 0
Legitimate Starters: 1
Failure Rate: 91%

Those numbers are astounding. If you draft a QB in the 1st Round, or even top 10 you have a 40% chance of hitting correctly. Odds are you will hit on either the first or second QB you drafted in the 1st Round. After that, you could realistically draft ten QB's and only one of them will be a capable starter. I'm not 100% sure that I would agree that drafting a QB in Rounds 2-7 is less of a risk. As the numbers have shown, drafting a QB outside of the 1st Round is essentially a wasted pick (5 legitimate starters, 6 if you count Derek Anderson from 1998-2004).

Billingsley26
03-18-2008, 09:35 PM
I somewhat agree. I dont think there is a need to draft a QB in the first unless, he is, like you said, and elite talent. Take this year for example. I dont think Matt Ryan would be the 3rd best QB last year. If I was ranking last year, Id have Rusell, Quinn and Edwards as 1-2-3. I dont think Ryan is better than any of them.

With that said, because this is a weak class for QB's, and he is the best, he is going to look good and be taken a lot higher than he should simplay because of that. Is he worthy of the pick that he is going to get? NO, NOT EVEN CLOSE. But he will go in the first, because teams are in need of a QB and he is the best availble one. Its sad, but its just a weak class.

To me, on a side note, given that there is no elite QB in a class, I would only draft these positions in the 1st round:

LB, OL, DL, DB.

etk
03-18-2008, 09:36 PM
I agree. All I did was read the thread title. I HATE drafting QBs early.

FA1
03-18-2008, 09:37 PM
How many of those later round guys never got the opportunity Tom Brady or Derek Anderson, or any of the later round guys did?

neko4
03-18-2008, 09:40 PM
How many of those later round guys never got the opportunity Tom Brady or Derek Anderson, or any of the later round guys did?
they wouldve showed something in camp to give teams a reason to keep them

And im not saying i totally disagree with you. Too often do teams draft a QB and throw him into the fire with no surronding talent (Carr, Harrington, Alex Smith)

ThePudge
03-18-2008, 10:59 PM
This is a direct excerpt from my Mock Draft thread. Falcons fans were arguing Jake Long over Matt Ryan. I did some research and this is what I came up with... Enjoy!

"The more I think about it, the more it fits into place for me, the more I buy Matt Ryan as a Top 3 pick in this year's draft.

I did a bit of research, found out some interesting #'s for you. It was pretty eye opening to me as well, I have to admit.

Of last year's 12 Playoff Teams, 6 (50%) were run by teams with QB's who went in the 1st Round coming into the league. Of course this is considerably greater than any other round, of those six, four were taken in the Top 5 (33.3%). Now, I looked up every starting OT of every playoff team, going by each team's Gamebook for each individual game. 3 Offensive Tackles (Walter Jones, Chris Samuels, and Marc Colombo) were selected in the first round. Three. That's good for 12.5% of the 24 starting OT's in the playoffs. One, Chris Samuels, was selected in the Top 5. That's good for 4.2%.

Matt Ryan may not be Peyton Manning, but he is a better prospect than 2004 4th Pick Overall Phillip Rivers, another Top 5 selection. So not only may Ryan bring the fresh face I was talking about, he's a more worthy gamble than a guy like Jake Long, especially in a class rich with OT talent."

Billingsley26
03-18-2008, 11:11 PM
This is a direct excerpt from my Mock Draft thread. Falcons fans were arguing Jake Long over Matt Ryan. I did some research and this is what I came up with... Enjoy!

"The more I think about it, the more it fits into place for me, the more I buy Matt Ryan as a Top 3 pick in this year's draft.

I did a bit of research, found out some interesting #'s for you. It was pretty eye opening to me as well, I have to admit.

Of last year's 12 Playoff Teams, 6 (50%) were run by teams with QB's who went in the 1st Round coming into the league. Of course this is considerably greater than any other round, of those six, four were taken in the Top 5 (33.3%). Now, I looked up every starting OT of every playoff team, going by each team's Gamebook for each individual game. 3 Offensive Tackles (Walter Jones, Chris Samuels, and Marc Colombo) were selected in the first round. Three. That's good for 12.5% of the 24 starting OT's in the playoffs. One, Chris Samuels, was selected in the Top 5. That's good for 4.2%.

Matt Ryan may not be Peyton Manning, but he is a better prospect than 2004 4th Pick Overall Phillip Rivers, another Top 5 selection. So not only may Ryan bring the fresh face I was talking about, he's a more worthy gamble than a guy like Jake Long, especially in a class rich with OT talent."


See these numbers are very misleading. Who were those 6 that led their teams to the playoffs?

Peyton Manning
Philip Rivers
Vince Young
Eli Manning
Ben Roethlisberger
Jason Campbell

All 6 of those were better prospects than Matt Ryan. At least to me they were. The only one who would be close would be Campbell. Ryan isnt close to the prospect that the other 5 were.

Thats what it comes down to. these numbers are SO MISLEADING. I dont look much into them. Sure Ryan could turn out to be as successful as Joe Montana, or be another Ryan Leaf. Who knows, but what we do know, is that he really isn't as good a prospect at he is being made out to be.

FA1
03-18-2008, 11:18 PM
Even Campbell has better tools than Ryan, so a case could be made that he IS a better prospect, as well. Also, I would take Rivers over Ryan any day of the week. As I mentioned before, I loved Rivers much more than most, but even I was surprised that he went in the top 10.

Iamcanadian
03-18-2008, 11:21 PM
The problem is, while there is less setback, there also is less capability of finding a quality return. And in the NFL, the easiest way to building a consistently strong team is still through finding that QB. Yes, there are always hidden gems each and every year, some guys that never got the opportunity, and others that were in the wrong place, but the chances of finding a quality QB is still higher at the top of the draft than at the bottom for very understandable reasons. This isn't an argument for or againist Matt Ryan, although I think most know where I stand on that. This is an argument for drafting a franchise QB if you believe one exists.

On Alex Smith - While he deserves some of the blame for this past year, he also was injured. His supporting cast was also bad, skillwise and offensively. His OC wasn't up to the task. Short of it is, I think the jury is still out on Alex. Now, next year, it's make or break time. But it's easy to forget that it was only a year ago where people felt that Alex Smith was rapidly improving and many thought he would have a breakout year.

I totally agree. Finding a QB in round 1 may be difficult, but finding a QB in rounds 2-7 is so hard you could be waiting 20 years or longer for any success.
Look at who drafted some of those flopped QB's, Carr, Couch, Akili Smith and Harrington were drafted by 4 of the worst GM's ever to be in charge of a draft.
The attack on Pennington is absurd as injuries took him down. As for Leftwich, Boller and Grossman, they were drafted in round 1 in one of the worst drafts in modern times with a huge amount of flops at almost every position.
It's easy to find flops but sometimes you have to look at who drafted them and what kind of draft forced them into round 1.
If I'm a good GM who has faith in my ability to spot talent, I have no problem taking a QB in round 1.

BamaFalcon59
03-18-2008, 11:22 PM
(Brees, Beck-reach, and Jackson-major reach).

Not really going to comment on the post, but where does all of the hate for Tarvaris Jackson come from? For a guy who two years ago was starting at a division 1-AA Alabama State team he is doing fine. A second year quarterback who went to a small school and he had a 71 passer rating last year and in his career has completed almost sixty percent of his passes. And he is also decent on the ground when he has to run.

I understand he has not been a world beater, but he has done fine. His offensive line and running game are fine, but the actual players he passes to are not so wonderful. Considering the circumstances and what was expected of him he has done pretty well. The arguement could be made that he was better statistically than Vince Young last year, and he has done more than Matt Leinart. And those two players were selected in the top ten of the draft and played at major college programs.

Paranoidmoonduck
03-18-2008, 11:25 PM
I think that for the most part there just aren't that many great quarterbacks coming into the league right now. There seems to be a much higher chance of your guy sticking if he's an early draft pick, and with a position that important you don't screw around.

ThePudge
03-18-2008, 11:26 PM
Jason Campbell a better prospect than Matt Ryan? Not sure a scout/expert in the world would back you there. Ryan is a better prospect than Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers, who were both better prospects than Campbell in 2005. Maybe you've forgotten that Matt Ryan played with very little talent around him in terms of WR's/TE's at BC yet still managed to look like an All-American. He has the same intelligence guys like Rivers and Alex Smith had coming out, and brings the mental and physcial toughness you need from a young QB. He's not a physical project like Russell, Akili Smith, or Ryan Leaf, he is rather comparable to Phillip Rivers. I think Ryan is ahead of where Rivers was mentally as a prospect coming out, though Rivers was rather good in that area, Ryan doesn't have the questions concerning his motion, he moves more fluidly and naturally inside the pocket, and has equal if not better arm strength than Rivers. Rivers may have been a bit more accurate though, but that's not to say Ryan isn't. To me Matt Ryan is a cross between 2004 First Round Picks Eli Manning and Phillip Rivers. He'll be a fine pro.

I think people are really starting to underrate Matt Ryan in this year's draft. He's a very real candidate at 1st Overall and probably won't fall out of the Top 5.

MidwayMonster31
03-18-2008, 11:27 PM
One other thing with top 10 QBs is how much money they command. This puts more pressure on the coaches to get him in right away. With the rookie salary the way it is, quarterbacks get thrown into the fire quickly and the guy has to learn quickly.
The team around him also matters. How much better would Vince Young's numbers be if he had actual talent at wide receiver? Another problem is that quarterbacks who are picked early are picked early because that team stinks and are less likely to surround them with enough talent. So there is no perfect way to do this.

Scott Wright
03-18-2008, 11:27 PM
Everyone probably knows my thoughts on this topic but as I always say the golden rule of the NFL Draft is that unless you already have a franchise quarterback you don't pass on one. A common denominator for the vast majority of bad teams is that they have issues under center and just about every good team has a good quarterback. The proof is in the pudding.

I am not Matt Ryan's biggest supporter by any stretch and while I don't consider him a "elite" signal caller I would have absolutely no problem taking him in the Top 10 if I were Atlanta, Kansas City of Baltimore.

bspen4
03-18-2008, 11:31 PM
Like I have said the only way the Chiefs take Ryan IMO is if Dorsey Ellis and J.Long are all gone.Although I wouldnt have a problem taking Ryan cuz Croyle wont ever be a franchise QB

FA1
03-18-2008, 11:32 PM
Not really going to comment on the post, but where does all of the hate for Tarvaris Jackson come from? For a guy who two years ago was starting at a division 1-AA Alabama State team he is doing fine. A second year quarterback who went to a small school and he had a 71 passer rating last year and in his career has completed almost sixty percent of his passes. And he is also decent on the ground when he has to run.

I understand he has not been a world beater, but he has done fine. His offensive line and running game are fine, but the actual players he passes to are not so wonderful. Considering the circumstances and what was expected of him he has done pretty well. The arguement could be made that he was better statistically than Vince Young last year, and he has done more than Matt Leinart. And those two players were selected in the top ten of the draft and played at major college programs.

There is no hatred towards Tarvaris, nor did I say he is progressing poorly. I simply said that the Vikings taking him at the end of the 2nd when most real scouts had him projected in the 4th or 5th rounds was a major reach, similar to the Eagles taking Kolb in the high 2nd last year when most had him slotted in the late 3rd-4th round.

bspen4
03-18-2008, 11:38 PM
There is no hatred towards Tarvaris, nor did I say he is progressing poorly. I simply said that the Vikings taking him at the end of the 2nd when most real scouts had him projected in the 4th or 5th rounds was a major reach, similar to the Eagles taking Kolb in the high 2nd last year when most had him slotted in the late 3rd-4th round.

But the Eagles taking Kolb was because Andy Reid thinks he fits their system perfectly

Iamcanadian
03-18-2008, 11:39 PM
Thats what it comes down to. these numbers are SO MISLEADING. I dont look much into them. Sure Ryan could turn out to be as successful as Joe Montana, or be another Ryan Leaf. Who knows, but what we do know, is that he really isn't as good a prospect at he is being made out to be.

And who turned you into a pro scout, GM or HC???. The final determination on Ryan was made today at his pro day and until we know the results completely, nobody on this site, not even Scott can tell for sure what Ryan's ranking will be. Did you watch him today, did you interview him, have you played pro football and watched enough pro QB's up close to have a clue about Ryan's potential. I don't think so! Quite with the "he really isn't as good a prospectas he is being made out to be" because his final rankings by those in the know are still to be released.
Sure he could flop so can every 1st rounder in the draft. what does that prove??? Every QB taken #1 overall has had numerous critics on his case from Payton to Palmer to Eli prior to the draft but that didn't stop their teams from drafting them and if say Parcells loves Ryan, he'll draft him no matter what people here sput off. If he falls to Detroit and Matt Millen drafts him then I'll be there saying he's going to flop because Millen cannot assess talent but if a decent GM drafts Ryan, I'll be confident he'll have success.

Scott Wright
03-18-2008, 11:41 PM
I live in Minnesota so I've seen a lot of Tarvaris Jackson and I highly doubt he will ever be a successful NFL quarterback.

Don't get me wrong he has some tools and he might have had a shot IF he was developed properly but that hasn't been the case. The Vikings forced him into the lineup before he was ready and he has developed a lot of bad habits. And even more disturbing is he doesn't learn from his mistakes and was making the same ones late in the season as he was early on.

Childress has pretty much hitched his wagon to Jackson so he is going to get every chance to succeed but whether it's one year from now or two years Minnesota will be in the market for a top quarterback.

FA1
03-18-2008, 11:42 PM
Jason Campbell a better prospect than Matt Ryan? Not sure a scout/expert in the world would back you there. Ryan is a better prospect than Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers, who were both better prospects than Campbell in 2005. Maybe you've forgotten that Matt Ryan played with very little talent around him in terms of WR's/TE's at BC yet still managed to look like an All-American. He has the same intelligence guys like Rivers and Alex Smith had coming out, and brings the mental and physcial toughness you need from a young QB. He's not a physical project like Russell, Akili Smith, or Ryan Leaf, he is rather comparable to Phillip Rivers. I think Ryan is ahead of where Rivers was mentally as a prospect coming out, though Rivers was rather good in that area, Ryan doesn't have the questions concerning his motion, he moves more fluidly and naturally inside the pocket, and has equal if not better arm strength than Rivers. Rivers may have been a bit more accurate though, but that's not to say Ryan isn't. To me Matt Ryan is a cross between 2004 First Round Picks Eli Manning and Phillip Rivers. He'll be a fine pro.

I think people are really starting to underrate Matt Ryan in this year's draft. He's a very real candidate at 1st Overall and probably won't fall out of the Top 5.

That year, Jason Campbell was the Joe Flacco to Smith's and Rodgers' Ryan and Brohm. He was the toolsy guy who quickly ascended up the boards and was drafted in the 1st largely based on his upside.

You are right that Ryan is much closer to Rivers than Leaf, but I will argue that not many, if any, were as mentally prepared coming out of college as Rivers was. That is why, despite his awkward delivery and relatively average arm, he rose so quickly up the boards. The Chargers, who coached him in the Senior Bowl that year, saw him chew up their playbook and spit it back out instantly.

FA1
03-18-2008, 11:44 PM
But the Eagles taking Kolb was because Andy Reid thinks he fits their system perfectly

And there was no hatred towards Kolb in that statement, either. But they did overdraft him.

Iamcanadian
03-18-2008, 11:46 PM
There is no hatred towards Tarvaris, nor did I say he is progressing poorly. I simply said that the Vikings taking him at the end of the 2nd when most real scouts had him projected in the 4th or 5th rounds was a major reach, similar to the Eagles taking Kolb in the high 2nd last year when most had him slotted in the late 3rd-4th round.

Really 'real scouts' like you or 'most' meaning you, had them rated where!!! H..mm Jackson started in his second year and Kolb was picked by Reid, I think I'll trust their judgment over yours any day of the week.
Nobody knows where Jackson and Kolb were ranked prior to the draft by most teams, so you have no way of knowing if they were reaches or not. They well might have been picked exactly where a lot of teams had them rated.

FA1
03-18-2008, 11:49 PM
Really 'real scouts' like you or 'most' meaning you, had them rated where!!! H..mm Jackson started in his second year and Kolb was picked by Reid, I think I'll trust their judgment over yours any day of the week.
Nobody knows where Jackson and Kolb were ranked prior to the draft by most teams, so you have no way of knowing if they were reaches or not. They well might have been picked exactly where a lot of teams had them rated.

I very much do know where a good number of "real" scouts had him slotted. Trust whoever you want... that's up to you.

Billingsley26
03-18-2008, 11:55 PM
And who turned you into a pro scout, GM or HC???. The final determination on Ryan was made today at his pro day and until we know the results completely, nobody on this site, not even Scott can tell for sure what Ryan's ranking will be. Did you watch him today, did you interview him, have you played pro football and watched enough pro QB's up close to have a clue about Ryan's potential. I don't think so! Quite with the "he really isn't as good a prospectas he is being made out to be" because his final rankings by those in the know are still to be released.
Sure he could flop so can every 1st rounder in the draft. what does that prove??? Every QB taken #1 overall has had numerous critics on his case from Payton to Palmer to Eli prior to the draft but that didn't stop their teams from drafting them and if say Parcells loves Ryan, he'll draft him no matter what people here sput off. If he falls to Detroit and Matt Millen drafts him then I'll be there saying he's going to flop because Millen cannot assess talent but if a decent GM drafts Ryan, I'll be confident he'll have success.

Going off his attributes, and in comparison to othr QB's who were rated at the top of their class, imo, he isnt close. Ryan Leaf, Peyton Manning, Jamarcus Russell and so on. Id be hard pressed to find a top 5 (say for rough sakes) QB taken in the draft who Matt Ryan is better than. You really would. And this is basing it off of what he has presented in his pro day and throughout his career at BC, compared to that of guys like Peyton, Leaf and Russell.

Iamcanadian
03-18-2008, 11:55 PM
I live in Minnesota so I've seen a lot of Tarvaris Jackson and I highly doubt he will ever be a successful NFL quarterback.

Don't get me wrong he has some tools and he might have had a shot IF he was developed properly but that hasn't been the case. The Vikings forced him into the lineup before he was ready and he has developed a lot of bad habits. And even more disturbing is he doesn't learn from his mistakes and was making the same ones late in the season as he was early on.

Childress has pretty much hitched his wagon to Jackson so he is going to get every chance to succeed but whether it's one year from now or two years Minnesota will be in the market for a top quarterback.

Well Scott, you were absolutely right on Losman but Jackson did come from Alabama St. and is pretty raw. Childress must see something in his makeup to start him and ride his coattails. I'm prepared to wait one more season before I write him off. Just maybe as a Minny fan, you judgment could get clouded on this one, after all 1st year starting QB's don't have the greatest track records.

Billingsley26
03-18-2008, 11:57 PM
Well Scott, you were absolutely right on Losman but Jackson did come from Alabama St. and is pretty raw. Childress must see something in his makeup to start him and ride his coattails. I'm prepared to wait one more season before I write him off. Just maybe as a Minny fan, you judgment could get clouded on this one, after all 1st year starting QB's don't have the greatest track records.

Im not going to say he was right about JP Losman, beause a) He is still in the league, and b) I believe Dick Jauron said that the starting job is still open. Believe what you want, but this is what Jauron said, Im not saying I believe it. JP could still be a success somewhere. I didnt like his fit in Buffalo as most should know, but I think that he could succeed in the right situation.

Iamcanadian
03-18-2008, 11:58 PM
Going off his attributes, and in comparison to othr QB's who were rated at the top of their class, imo, he isnt close. Ryan Leaf, Peyton Manning, Jamarcus Russell and so on. Id be hard pressed to find a top 5 (say for rough sakes) QB taken in the draft who Matt Ryan is better than. You really would. And this is basing it off of what he has presented in his pro day and throughout his career at BC, compared to that of guys like Peyton, Leaf and Russell.

I have no doubt that he isn't ranked as high as those 3, few are, but he could still be at least as good as Rivers and that isn't all that bad, is it?

Scott Wright
03-19-2008, 12:02 AM
Well Scott, you were absolutely right on Losman but Jackson did come from Alabama St. and is pretty raw. Childress must see something in his makeup to start him and ride his coattails. I'm prepared to wait one more season before I write him off. Just maybe as a Minny fan, you judgment could get clouded on this one, after all 1st year starting QB's don't have the greatest track records.

Just to be clear I am not a huge Vikings fan. Living in Minnesota all my life sure I follow them closer than other teams, it's only natural, but I definitely don't live or die with them.

As for Jackson, you are right in that he was / is very raw coming from Alabama St. which is why it was crucial to his development that he be brought along slowly and carefully. That has not been the case however and I'm afraid at this point they may have squandered away any shot he had of being a good starting quarterback in the NFL by throwing him into the fire before he was ready.

Oh, and just a side note. The Vikings LOVE Matt Ryan. L O V E him. Obviously they won't have a shot at him barring something crazy happening but it'ssomething to keep in mind and tuck away.

Billingsley26
03-19-2008, 12:03 AM
I have no doubt that he isn't ranked as high as those 3, few are, but he could still be at least as good as Rivers and that isn't all that bad, is it?

Sure he could be as good as Rivers, but is he as polished as Rivers is at this point? I dont think so. It is probably the closest comparison. And, no it isnt a bad thing.

bspen4
03-19-2008, 12:04 AM
Just to be clear I am not a huge Vikings fan. Living in Minnesota all my life sure I follow them closer than other teams, it's only natural, but I definitely don't live or die with them.

As for Jackson, you are right in that he was / is very raw coming from Alabama St. which is why it was crucial to his development that he be brought along slowly and carefully. That has not been the case however and I'm afraid at this point they may have squandered away any shot he had of being a good starting quarterback in the NFL by throwing him into the fire before he was ready.

Oh, and just a side note. The Vikings LOVE Matt Ryan. L O V E him. Obviously they won't have a shot at him barring something crazy happening but it'ssomething to keep in mind and tuck away.

They can trade up with the chiefs. I wont mind:)

Iamcanadian
03-19-2008, 12:06 AM
Im not going to say he was right about JP Losman, beause a) He is still in the league, and b) I believe Dick Jauron said that the starting job is still open. Believe what you want, but this is what Jauron said, Im not saying I believe it. JP could still be a success somewhere. I didnt like his fit in Buffalo as most should know, but I think that he could succeed in the right situation.

I was just comenting on Scott's prediction that Losman wouldn't be our starting QB within 2 years. It was a gutsy call on Scott's part considering we had nobody else at the time.
I, like you, hope we can get something for him prior to the draft but realistically it's Edwards job to lose and Jauron may be just pumping up Losman to trade him for good value.

FA1
03-19-2008, 12:06 AM
Sure he could be as good as Rivers, but is he as polished as Rivers is at this point? I dont think so. It is probably the closest comparison. And, no it isnt a bad thing.

To add to this post, with which I agree 100%, I will reiterate that as much as I loved Rivers, I still feel he was a reach in the top 10, especially ahead of Roethlisberger.

Billingsley26
03-19-2008, 12:08 AM
I was just comenting on Scott's prediction that Losman wouldn't be our starting QB within 2 years. It was a gutsy call on Scott's part considering we had nobody else at the time.
I, like you, hope we can get something for him prior to the draft but realistically it's Edwards job to lose and Jauron may be just pumping up Losman to trade him for good value.

Well, I will stand corrected if Im wrong, but I believe Scott said he would be out of the league, not just not our starting QB. But yeah, I liken this situation to that of the Digiorgio and Pos battle last year. You knew Pos would get the starting spot, but Jauron still said that it was open competition.

Iamcanadian
03-19-2008, 12:13 AM
Just to be clear I am not a huge Vikings fan. Living in Minnesota all my life sure I follow them closer than other teams, it's only natural, but I definitely don't live or die with them.

As for Jackson, you are right in that he was / is very raw coming from Alabama St. which is why it was crucial to his development that he be brought along slowly and carefully. That has not been the case however and I'm afraid at this point they may have squandered away any shot he had of being a good starting quarterback in the NFL by throwing him into the fire before he was ready.

Oh, and just a side note. The Vikings LOVE Matt Ryan. L O V E him. Obviously they won't have a shot at him barring something crazy happening but it'ssomething to keep in mind and tuck away.

I'm not from the school that thinks QB's fail because they get rushed too often or don't have enough talent around them. I believe that for a QB to succeed in the NFL, he has to have a certain makeup mentally whether he's Payton or Jackson. He has to have a certain toughness that doesn't let a whole lot bother him. If Jackson lacks that mental toughness, he'll fail anyways and if he has it, he'll succeed no matter what. He was given a year to adjust to the NFL before they started him, maybe they could have waited another year but if he's tough mentally, I don't think it will ruin him. JMO.

ThePudge
03-19-2008, 12:17 AM
Sure he could be as good as Rivers, but is he as polished as Rivers is at this point? I dont think so. It is probably the closest comparison. And, no it isnt a bad thing.

In some aspects I believe Matt Ryan is just as, if not more polished than Rivers. As I said, Rivers had that awkward throwing motion coming out that Ryan won't have to work on. Ryan is on a different level than all QB's in this class as far as being pro ready and though Rivers was as intelligent as they come Matt Ryan is not far behind. Ryan went from Penn Charter (A very good HS academically) in Philadelphia to Boston College, where a study was done and revealed their FB players to be smarter than any other team's in the country. Point being, Ryan is extremely smart, he's a student of the game, he's a natural leader. His teammates love him and he commands their respect. He makes the players around him better. In my opinion, he has just as much if not more potential as a franchise passer than Phillip Rivers and could certainly be that kind of pro (Rivers-caliber.)

His physical skills won't wow you, but they are above average. He stands at almost 6'5 weighing in at 228. Prototypical size. His 4.92 speed and mobility in the pocket is quite similar to that of a Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. Obviously he's not Vick or even Ben Roethlisberger, but Ryan is athletic enough to be a fine NFL QB. He doesn't have an arm that you could stack up next to Palmer's or Russell's, but he showed today at his Pro Day it's plenty strong and isn't just "average."

There really isn't anything not to like. Because BC was not in a BCS bowl and Ryan may not have gotten the headlines and magazine covers like Leinart, Vince Young, Brady Quinn did, everyone assumes he's overrated. Matt Ryan, at least on this board, has become underrated.

Billingsley26
03-19-2008, 12:20 AM
I'm not from the school that thinks QB's fail because they get rushed too often or don't have enough talent around them. I believe that for a QB to succeed in the NFL, he has to have a certain makeup mentally whether he's Payton or Jackson. He has to have a certain toughness that doesn't let a whole lot bother him. If Jackson lacks that mental toughness, he'll fail anyways and if he has it, he'll succeed no matter what. He was given a year to adjust to the NFL before they started him, maybe they could have waited another year but if he's tough mentally, I don't think it will ruin him. JMO.

Yeah, I do agree with this. Im all for giving about a year for a QB, unless something else rises up, such as the Brady Quinn situation. But what I think the Bengals did with Carson Palmer was perfect. Let Jon Kitna take every snap his first year and let Carson learn the ropes. Ever since, I shouldnt have to tell you.

I mean, some QB's get thrown into the fire right away, but Jackson was there to learn for a year, then play this year. He had time to learn, and adjust his game accordingly. But to be honest, I might be a little biased, in that I would take a pocket passer over a "scrambler" 11 times out of 10.

FA1
03-19-2008, 12:28 AM
Ryan is on a different level than all QB's in this class as far as being pro ready

Why, why, WHY are so many people sleeping on Brian Brohm? To say Ryan is on a different level is just plain wrong! If Ryan is #1, Brohm is still #1a, yet everyone seems to have forgotten all about him. Ryan is taller, but Brohm still has every bit the prototypical build (6'3 230) and is a slightly better overall athlete. Brohm also has a slightly BETTER arm, which is widely misperceived. And I will argue with ANYONE who questions Brohm's preparedness for the next level. Wake up, people!

Iamcanadian
03-19-2008, 12:37 AM
Yeah, I do agree with this. Im all for giving about a year for a QB, unless something else rises up, such as the Brady Quinn situation. But what I think the Bengals did with Carson Palmer was perfect. Let Jon Kitna take every snap his first year and let Carson learn the ropes. Ever since, I shouldnt have to tell you.

I mean, some QB's get thrown into the fire right away, but Jackson was there to learn for a year, then play this year. He had time to learn, and adjust his game accordingly. But to be honest, I might be a little biased, in that I would take a pocket passer over a "scrambler" 11 times out of 10.

Having followed the development of pro QB's for 55 years, I can say with certainty that most methods work well if a QB has the skill and mental makeup to succeed. I don't think it hurt Payton to start his 1st season nor Aikman or Bradshaw or Staubach.
For me the Carr's, Couch's, Akili Smith's and the Harrington's simply lacked that combination and would have failed no matter what method was used to develop them.
It's nice if you can sit for a year but most times that's not realistic.

ThePudge
03-19-2008, 12:42 AM
Why, why, WHY are so many people sleeping on Brian Brohm? To say Ryan is on a different level is just plain wrong! If Ryan is #1, Brohm is still #1a, yet everyone seems to have forgotten all about him. Ryan is taller, but Brohm still has every bit the prototypical build (6'3 230) and is a slightly better overall athlete. Brohm also has a slightly BETTER arm, which is widely misperceived. And I will argue with ANYONE who questions Brohm's preparedness for the next level. Wake up, people!

Brian Brohm's not a bad prospect. I believe I have him ranked somewhere in the 18-23 range in terms of this year. However, I do think you have mixed a few things up. Ryan's arm is slightly BETTER than Brohm's. Ryan is two inches taller (6'4 3/4 to 6'2 7/8) and is a slightly worse athlete than Ryan. Brohm is the same size as Henne who is considered undersized, yet Brohm is the prototype? Brohm is smart also, he is solid, but he's not the leader Ryan is. BC lived and died with Matt Ryan. There is some argument whether backup QB Hunter Cantwell was better than Brohm (though I side with Brohm of course.) Brohm put up numbers. He played in a pass happy offense with NFL prospects Harry Douglas, Mario Urrutia, and Gary Barnridge. Ryan's numbers still mean more to me considering there isn't a receiver he had that will be drafted and he played in a more pro style offense. As for preparedness, I think Brohm is pretty ready, as is Chad Henne, but I still think Ryan's on that level of his own.

Iamcanadian
03-19-2008, 12:43 AM
Why, why, WHY are so many people sleeping on Brian Brohm? To say Ryan is on a different level is just plain wrong! If Ryan is #1, Brohm is still #1a, yet everyone seems to have forgotten all about him. Ryan is taller, but Brohm still has every bit the prototypical build (6'3 230) and is a slightly better overall athlete. Brohm also has a slightly BETTER arm, which is widely misperceived. And I will argue with ANYONE who questions Brohm's preparedness for the next level. Wake up, people!

Just maybe after interviewing them both, the scouts, GM's and HC's were far more impressed with Ryan's mental makeup than Brohm's. They have all been in close contact with successful Pro QB's and just maybe know something about the type of personality it takes to succeed at the position. They see it in Ryan, they don't see it that much in Brohm.
There are probably dozens of QB's who have the skills to start in the NFL, it's finding one with the mental toughness to fail and still get up and come back at you without letting that failure bother them that seperates the good ones from the mediocre types.

Billingsley26
03-19-2008, 12:44 AM
Having followed the development of pro QB's for 55 years, I can say with certainty that most methods work well if a QB has the skill and mental makeup to succeed. I don't think it hurt Payton to start his 1st season nor Aikman or Bradshaw or Staubach.
For me the Carr's, Couch's, Akili Smith's and the Harrington's simply lacked that combination and would have failed no matter what method was used to develop them.
It's nice if you can sit for a year but most times that's not realistic.

Ive been preaching these things for so long, probably since my time on this site. My father is a pretty well established coach in Ontario, coaching at all levels of football. Winning highschool championships, and winning a Vanier with U of T when they were respectable, and there is nothing bigger that he taught me than mental toughness. This is why guys like the Tom Brady's succeed. The one that always sticks out in my mind, is in the AFCCG where NE travelled to IND, and when Addai scored that late TD with about a minute left. Tom Brady was quickly shown on the screen and he was warming up his arm, and when they scored the TD he was nodding his head as if to say "Ok Peyton, now we got a game, lets go, lets roll". Shows the type of guy he is. Granted he threw a pick on that drive, but I dont think I need to speak more about Brady's mental toughness.

Its why I would take a pure football guy, who has the mental toughness and character over some freak athlete who just surges up the draft board. Call me old school if you want, cause Im fine with that. But I would take those guys 11 times out of 10.

Scott Wright
03-19-2008, 12:51 AM
Well, I will stand corrected if Im wrong, but I believe Scott said he would be out of the league, not just not our starting QB.

Definitely didn't say that Losman would be out of the league in two years, just that the Bills regime didn't like him.

I am actually a Losman fan and I think he can succeed somewhere else.

FA1
03-19-2008, 12:52 AM
Brian Brohm's not a bad prospect. I believe I have him ranked somewhere in the 18-23 range in terms of this year. However, I do think you have mixed a few things up. Ryan's arm is slightly BETTER than Brohm's. Ryan is two inches taller (6'4 3/4 to 6'2 7/8) and is a slightly worse athlete than Ryan. Brohm is the same size as Henne who is considered undersized, yet Brohm is the prototype? Brohm is smart also, he is solid, but he's not the leader Ryan is. BC lived and died with Matt Ryan. There is some argument whether backup QB Hunter Cantwell was better than Brohm (though I side with Brohm of course.) Brohm put up numbers. He played in a pass happy offense with NFL prospects Harry Douglas, Mario Urrutia, and Gary Barnridge. Ryan's numbers still mean more to me considering there isn't a receiver he had that will be drafted and he played in a more pro style offense. As for preparedness, I think Brohm is pretty ready, as is Chad Henne, but I still think Ryan's on that level of his own.

No, I have nothing mixed up. I stand by my statements. If you want to get into combine numbers to verify, which I don't, we can.

Show me one person who says either Brohm or Henne is undersized and I'll show you an idiot.

Brohm is not a fiery leader, but you cannot discount his leadership capabilities. I have many contacts on and around both teams, and the L'ville guys live and die with Brohm every bit as much as the BC guys do with Ryan.

Also, Brohm's NFL prospects? Harry Douglas will be a 5th rounder, Barnidge maybe a 6th, and please don't speak of Urrutia. He hurt Brohm more than he ever helped him.

Also, Brohm played under a former NFL OC in Petrino and a former NFL QB coach in Kragthorpe, so I have no problem with the offensive schemes he's played in.

Iamcanadian
03-19-2008, 12:54 AM
Ive been preaching these things for so long, probably since my time on this site. My father is a pretty well established coach in Ontario, coaching at all levels of football. Winning highschool championships, and winning a Vanier with U of T when they were respectable, and there is nothing bigger that he taught me than mental toughness. This is why guys like the Tom Brady's succeed. The one that always sticks out in my mind, is in the AFCCG where NE travelled to IND, and when Addai scored that late TD with about a minute left. Tom Brady was quickly shown on the screen and he was warming up his arm, and when they scored the TD he was nodding his head as if to say "Ok Peyton, now we got a game, lets go, lets roll". Shows the type of guy he is. Granted he threw a pick on that drive, but I dont think I need to speak more about Brady's mental toughness.

Its why I would take a pure football guy, who has the mental toughness and character over some freak athlete who just surges up the draft board. Call me old school if you want, cause Im fine with that. But I would take those guys 11 times out of 10.

Well we do agree on that, however what gets me, is thinking that great athletes cannot have good mental toughness as well. Most of the athletes taken in round 1 have shown their respective teams that side of them, of course there is a wide range of abilities among GM's to assess talent and it always amazes me how many flops occur to those GM's who cannot assess character like Matt Millen.
The trouble with drafting pure football players(I coach and love them as well), to play in the NFL, is that most NFL starters are pure football players with great athletic skills not just athletic freaks as some seem to think, and a pure football player without athletic skills will struggle at that level.

Billingsley26
03-19-2008, 12:54 AM
Definitely didn't say that Losman would be out of the league in two years, just that the Bills regime didn't like him.

I am actually a Losman fan and I think he can succeed somewhere else.

Ok, then corrected I stand. Im not much of a Losman fan myself, but I do think that under certain circumstances, he could succeed. Buffalo just wasnt a fit for him, but I think that a team that is run similarly to say Jacksonville would be a great fit for him. Where he can use his athleticism, throw fewer times than he was in Buffalo, and just manage the game, and allow the run game to take over.

FA1
03-19-2008, 12:56 AM
Just maybe after interviewing them both, the scouts, GM's and HC's were far more impressed with Ryan's mental makeup than Brohm's. They have all been in close contact with successful Pro QB's and just maybe know something about the type of personality it takes to succeed at the position. They see it in Ryan, they don't see it that much in Brohm.
There are probably dozens of QB's who have the skills to start in the NFL, it's finding one with the mental toughness to fail and still get up and come back at you without letting that failure bother them that seperates the good ones from the mediocre types.

So after ripping a couple of us for "assuming" what real scouts think, now you're doing the same. I'm not saying the NFL scouts are sleeping on Brohm, because I know they aren't. I'm calling out all the people on these sites and ESPN and whatnot... they are the ones sleeping on Brohm. I know of many "real" scouts that have Brohm ahead of Ryan. I know of a few that have Flacco ahead of both.

BamaFalcon59
03-19-2008, 12:56 AM
No, I have nothing mixed up. I stand by my statements. If you want to get into combine numbers to verify, which I don't, we can.

Show me one person who says either Brohm or Henne is undersized and I'll show you an idiot.

Brohm is not a fiery leader, but you cannot discount his leadership capabilities. I have many contacts on and around both teams, and the L'ville guys live and die with Brohm every bit as much as the BC guys do with Ryan.

Also, Brohm's NFL prospects? Harry Douglas will be a 5th rounder, Barnidge maybe a 6th, and please don't speak of Urrutia. He hurt Brohm more than he ever helped him.

Also, Brohm played under a former NFL OC in Petrino and a former NFL QB coach in Kragthorpe, so I have no problem with the offensive schemes he's played in.

I think Douglas gos higher than that, but even if not so having three draftable players to throw to is very good. Ryan's receivers and tight end will not even be invited to a NFL camp from what I hear.

Iamcanadian
03-19-2008, 01:01 AM
So after ripping a couple of us for "assuming" what real scouts think, now you're doing the same. I'm not saying the NFL scouts are sleeping on Brohm, because I know they aren't. I'm calling out all the people on these sites and ESPN and whatnot... they are the ones sleeping on Brohm. I know of many "real" scouts that have Brohm ahead of Ryan. I know of a few that have Flacco ahead of both.

Well, you sure seem to know a lot of scouts and they sure seem like they tell you more than they tell anybody else, since most are pretty mute to the public before the draft. I'm expecting a dead on mock from you with all this insider information, when are you going to post it???

FA1
03-19-2008, 01:02 AM
I think Douglas gos higher than that, but even if not so having three draftable players to throw to is very good. Ryan's receivers and tight end will not even be invited to a NFL camp from what I hear.

I was saying not to speak of Urrutia because he is not a draftable player.

Billingsley26
03-19-2008, 01:04 AM
Well we do agree on that, however what gets me, is thinking that great athletes cannot have good mental toughness as well. Most of the athletes taken in round 1 have shown their respective teams that side of them, of course there is a wide range of abilities among GM's to assess talent and it always amazes me how many flops occur to those GM's who cannot assess character like Matt Millen.
The trouble with drafting pure football players(I coach and love them as well), to play in the NFL, is that most NFL starters are pure football players with great athletic skills not just athletic freaks as some seem to think, and a pure football player without athletic skills will struggle at that level.

Not entirely. If a team plays to their strength and advantage, then it will hie the lack of athleticism. Being a smart football player on defense, allows the player to get to the ball, or where he needs to be in the shortest time possible. Thus with the proper technique and awareness, that player is able to make the play in the same time the so called freak does.

Its been proven so many times, and I will continue to stand by it. Like I said, call me old school, but the true football mind will always win.

initial_flo
03-19-2008, 01:14 AM
Everyone probably knows my thoughts on this topic but as I always say the golden rule of the NFL Draft is that unless you already have a franchise quarterback you don't pass on one. A common denominator for the vast majority of bad teams is that they have issues under center and just about every good team has a good quarterback. The proof is in the pudding.

I am not Matt Ryan's biggest supporter by any stretch and while I don't consider him a "elite" signal caller I would have absolutely no problem taking him in the Top 10 if I were Atlanta, Kansas City of Baltimore.

See I wouldn't take him because everything about him just screams average. His career was pretty good, his size is good, his throwing is good, and I don't really know how to value intangibles. Sounds too much like Harrington, Couch, or Carr when they came out...

I would much rather have an LT for the next decade or a gamebreaking DE then roll the dice on Ryan.

Now if it were one of those guys with a great arm that doesn't cause problems on or off the field and has confidence and swagger, I'd wait for that guy. No matter if you wait till a later round or another year.

FA1
03-19-2008, 01:18 AM
Well, you sure seem to know a lot of scouts and they sure seem like they tell you more than they tell anybody else, since most are pretty mute to the public before the draft. I'm expecting a dead on mock from you with all this insider information, when are you going to post it???

I have made a lot of friends and proven to be trustworthy. People know when they talk to me, while I may pass along some information, their names and teams are never mentioned, specifically.

At the same time, I know that sometimes I'm given some misleading information, but I can generally sort that out because the bad information seldom comes from multiple sources, while the good information generally does.

As far as a mock, it's a bit of a tricky road because obviously it matches teams with players. I do have a top 10 with pretty in-depth analysis in the Mock Drafts forum. I believe it has slipped to the top of page 2 now. By all means check it out. I may come out with a full 1st round, but it's not at the top of my priority list. More important to me is positional and overall rankings, which I will gladly offer up.

FA1
03-19-2008, 01:20 AM
I think Douglas gos higher than that, but even if not so having three draftable players to throw to is very good. Ryan's receivers and tight end will not even be invited to a NFL camp from what I hear.

To add to my previous reply, Ryan's TE this season, Ryan Purvis, is considered a potential 3rd round pick in next year's draft. Brandon Robinson also is a pretty decent WR.

Forenci
03-19-2008, 01:22 AM
Of course, the statement made in the title of this thread is some what misleading. No player is 100% full proof, no matter what position or spot they play, it's always a risk.

If a team is diligent in their draft process, they'll watch the tapes a hundred times, they'll talk to their coaches, they'll see what can and can't be coached, and they'll make the selection.

My personal feelings are some teams pay too much attention to upside, 40 times, physical attributes and not enough time looking into the players work ethic, their coachability and whether or not they were productive in college.

Obvisouly I could be dead wrong about this, but that's just how I feel.

So no, I don't consider Ryan to be an elite quarterback, I feel like he's got superb intangibles. That alone goes a long way in my eyes. Whether or not his on the field talent matches his off the field mental capcity, who knows?

There's the gamblin' man and the cautious man, however, a great GM needs to be both.

Iamcanadian
03-19-2008, 01:23 AM
Not entirely. If a team plays to their strength and advantage, then it will hie the lack of athleticism. Being a smart football player on defense, allows the player to get to the ball, or where he needs to be in the shortest time possible. Thus with the proper technique and awareness, that player is able to make the play in the same time the so called freak does.

Its been proven so many times, and I will continue to stand by it. Like I said, call me old school, but the true football mind will always win.

I never said draft a freak without a good deal of pure football sense and pure football guys do play in the NFL and sometimes even become starters but in round 1 and probably round 2, the solid GM's are looking for a combination of both, great athlete with pure football sense. After round 2, and especially in round 3 and 4 a lot of teams will give a lot more emphasis on pure football ability and leave rounds 5-7 for the more athletic types who they aren't sure about.
I think you mind frame really suits the non pro sector more. In college, a HC isn't always blessed with an array of skilled athletes who have pure football sense and is often put in a position of deciding between athletic skill vs pure football talent and more often than not will start pure football players over athletic freaks. I know I would. However at the pro level this differential is pretty narrow and athletic freaks with poor football knowledge rarely ever start. It's is pretty hard for a pure football player who lacks any kind of athletic skill to stay with another pro who has both. A CB who has all the intangibles in the world but lacks 40 speed just isn't going to be able to cover a WR who has solid 40 speed plus good football sense, consistantly on long passes. There are limits at the pro level for guys who just have great pure football sense but lack the athletic ability to get to the right place at the right time.

Brent
03-19-2008, 07:23 AM
Not really going to comment on the post, but where does all of the hate for Tarvaris Jackson come from? For a guy who two years ago was starting at a division 1-AA Alabama State team he is doing fine. A second year quarterback who went to a small school and he had a 71 passer rating last year and in his career has completed almost sixty percent of his passes. And he is also decent on the ground when he has to run.

I understand he has not been a world beater, but he has done fine. His offensive line and running game are fine, but the actual players he passes to are not so wonderful. Considering the circumstances and what was expected of him he has done pretty well. The arguement could be made that he was better statistically than Vince Young last year, and he has done more than Matt Leinart. And those two players were selected in the top ten of the draft and played at major college programs.
Didn't he transfer from Alabama to Alabama State because he couldn't win the starting job over Croyle?

regoob2
03-19-2008, 07:29 AM
I have made a lot of friends and proven to be trustworthy. People know when they talk to me, while I may pass along some information, their names and teams are never mentioned, specifically.

At the same time, I know that sometimes I'm given some misleading information, but I can generally sort that out because the bad information seldom comes from multiple sources, while the good information generally does.

As far as a mock, it's a bit of a tricky road because obviously it matches teams with players. I do have a top 10 with pretty in-depth analysis in the Mock Drafts forum. I believe it has slipped to the top of page 2 now. By all means check it out. I may come out with a full 1st round, but it's not at the top of my priority list. More important to me is positional and overall rankings, which I will gladly offer up.You got any insider info on the bears?

Billingsley26
03-19-2008, 11:31 AM
I never said draft a freak without a good deal of pure football sense and pure football guys do play in the NFL and sometimes even become starters but in round 1 and probably round 2, the solid GM's are looking for a combination of both, great athlete with pure football sense. After round 2, and especially in round 3 and 4 a lot of teams will give a lot more emphasis on pure football ability and leave rounds 5-7 for the more athletic types who they aren't sure about.
I think you mind frame really suits the non pro sector more. In college, a HC isn't always blessed with an array of skilled athletes who have pure football sense and is often put in a position of deciding between athletic skill vs pure football talent and more often than not will start pure football players over athletic freaks. I know I would. However at the pro level this differential is pretty narrow and athletic freaks with poor football knowledge rarely ever start. It's is pretty hard for a pure football player who lacks any kind of athletic skill to stay with another pro who has both. A CB who has all the intangibles in the world but lacks 40 speed just isn't going to be able to cover a WR who has solid 40 speed plus good football sense, consistantly on long passes. There are limits at the pro level for guys who just have great pure football sense but lack the athletic ability to get to the right place at the right time.

But your last point about the CB can be debated. There are many CB out there who aren't as fast ast their opposing WR. But like I mentioned before, teams will put you in a position to your advantage. If he isn't the fastest, he must have great reflexes, be a ball hawk and an excellent zone guy. So in the case, he isn't left on an island covering this WR man to man. A good team will always play to their players strength.

BBIB
03-21-2008, 10:28 PM
I haven't followed this process closely until recently.


And if players have been overvalued like Matt Ryan, I understand the high bust ratio.

I mean here's a guy based on no merit is getting hyped up as a top 5 pick. People always blame the organization or the QB himself, but what about these so called experts that hype these guys up?


How do they possibly think based on completely unquantifiable evidence that Matt Ryan is a top 5 pick?


How did they think a guy from the WAC in a gimmick offense with no physical tools in Alex Smith should be worth a #1 pick overall?


How can these guys be so overpaid?

FA1
03-21-2008, 11:17 PM
How did they think a guy from the WAC in a gimmick offense with no physical tools in Alex Smith should be worth a #1 pick overall?

Certainly with no intentions of being an ass, but Utah is in the MWC. Fresno State (Carr) is in the WAC.

BBIB
03-23-2008, 04:26 PM
Certainly with no intentions of being an ass, but Utah is in the MWC. Fresno State (Carr) is in the WAC.

Thanks for the correction. But neither one of those conferences are exactly what I would call formidable competition. But of course it can't all be about competition, it's about the scheme a player runs and the physical tools they have.

How the hell did anyone think Alex Smith showed enough in that offense in that conference, with that lack of physical tools?


And didn't Carr run a gimmick offense as Fresno State?


Seriously, how do these guys make so much money (the scouts I mean)?

luee
03-23-2008, 04:43 PM
You have to separate a true number one from the only QB availible. You end up with a Peyton, Carson, or Eli you should have an easy run for a decade. Vick was the only unanimous #1 to run into problems. Better to bust going for a franchise QB over a DT or RB.

BamaFalcon59
03-23-2008, 05:17 PM
Didn't he transfer from Alabama to Alabama State because he couldn't win the starting job over Croyle?

Brodie Croyal wasn't exactly a slouch in college, and he is now a starting NFL quarterback, even if it does not last too long.

BamaFalcon59
03-23-2008, 05:20 PM
You have to separate a true number one from the only QB availible. You end up with a Peyton, Carson, or Eli you should have an easy run for a decade. Vick was the only unanimous #1 to run into problems. Better to bust going for a franchise QB over a DT or RB.

Eli Manning might have won a superbowl, but I don't think he has impressed too much. Vick wasn't bad either until the dog issues. Too bad him and Bobby Petrino never got a shot together.

DawgBone
03-23-2008, 05:52 PM
And maybe not even then!

Since 1998, a span of 10 drafts, there have been 16 QBs taken in the top 10 overall. I will say the jury is still out on 6 of them, all of the guys drafted in 2004 or later. Of the other 10, 6 can be considered busts (Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington, and Byron Leftwich). Of the remaining four, one is currently in jail. That means of those 10 top 10 QBs taken between 1998 and 2003, only 3 are currently legit starters in the league. This isn't baseball where .300 is considered a success. How can you invest the considerable amount of money and years of patience it takes to draft a QB in the top 10, knowing the success rate is at or under 40% (depending on whether you consider Michael Vick a success or not)?

There have been 12 other QBs taken in the 1st round since 1998, bringing the total number of 1st round QBs to 28. Again, the jury is still out on 4 more of them, although Roethlisberger has stepped into the legit category. Chad Pennington falls somewhere in the middle ground between legitimate and illegitimate, and Daunte Culpepper was legit before his injury. However, 5 more can be added to the bust column (Cade McNown, Patrick Ramsey, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, and J.P. Losman).

To recap the numbers:
Top 10 QBs
16 total
6 awaiting judgment
3 legit starters
1 phenom in jail
6 busts (60%+ failure rate)

1st round QBs
28 total
10 awaiting judgment
4 legit starters
1 formerly legit starter
1 average starter
1 phenom in jail
11 busts (61.1%+ failure rate)

Now let's attack this argument from a different angle.

There are 32 teams in the league. Four of those teams are starting Pro Bowl-caliber former 1st rounders. Nine are starting 1st rounders who I've left the jury out on, although that jury has almost reached a positive verdict on Eli Manning and a less-than-positive verdict on Alex Smith. Four teams have former 1st rounders, two of which I've labeled busts, competing for the starting job (McNair, Pennington, Harrington, and Grossman). Three teams are starting former 2nd rounders (Brees, Beck-reach, and Jackson-major reach). Three more teams are going with former 3rd rounders (Croyle, Schaub-who I compared to Brady coming out, and Edwards-who I had as a possible late 1st rounder last year). A whopping NINE teams are starting QBs who were 2nd day picks or undrafted entirely. I consider six of those nine to be at least solid starters, excluding Derek Anderson, Jon Kitna, and Jake Delhomme. Still, SIX solid NFL starting QBs taken in the 4th round or later.

If I were in charge of an NFL team, even with a dire need at QB, I would not take a QB in the top 10 unless I was 100% sure that he is an elite prospect. I am sure there is NOT an elite QB prospect in this year's class. Matt Ryan is not an elite prospect. Brian Brohm is not. Neither is Joe Flacco, nor Chad Henne. There is no Peyton Manning. No Carson Palmer.

Eli Manning, Vince Young, and JaMarcus Russell all had tools worthy of being picked in the top 10. Alex Smith did not... and we see where he is today. I thought I liked Philip Rivers more than anyone when he was coming out, as I had him slotted in the mid 1st when others still had him in the 2nd and even 3rd round. I was obviously wrong, because even I'm not sure I would have taken him in the top 10. Conversely, I was sold on Roethlisberger as a top 10 pick. Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler were right on the border and were drafted accordingly.

Maybe I've strayed from the point a bit, but to reiterate, there is no elite QB prospect in this year's draft, and I would not ever spend a top 10 pick, top 10 money, and top 10 patience on a QB I was not 100% sure of. I would rather dedicate a 2nd day pick each year to find one or more of those hidden gems.

You cant take a top rated QB and exspect him to succeed because the team is picking early. Usually that means the team has poor talent. It doesnt allways mean that player wasnt any good. That same player on the Patriots might be pro bowl worthy.

Also top 10 drafted QB's have to almost allways play early despite the fact that they arent ready to. Later round QB's usually allways get their time to develope properly.

That is why top 10 QB's dont allways work out.

Why do I allways think of Ryan Leaf when I see a topic like this?

DonWoods33
03-23-2008, 07:39 PM
Well dude the grass isn't much greener on the DT side of the ball either. I pulled a ten year sample for DT's (figuring the Atl will either draft a DT or Matt Ryan) Some of these flames out were worse then the QBs. I mean some of the QBs actually were able to savage a career. Based on top 15 picks, years 1994 to 2004.


1994 - Defensive Tackles
Rd Sel # Player School Team
1 1 Dan Wilkinson Ohio State Cincinnati Bengals-I would like to consider him a bust never since came close to living up to his draft position, but if I am not going to call Trent Difer a bust for stinkin in Tampa. I guess I can't call him one either. NB
1 7 Bryant Young Notre Dame San Francisco 49ers-Had a nice career and some very productive years. Non Bust

1995 - Defensive Tackles
Rd Sel # Player School Team
1 12 Warren Sapp Miami (Fla.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Next stop Canton NB

2000 - Defensive Tackles
Rd Sel # Player School Team
1 6 Corey Simon Florida State Philadelphia Eagles
Injuries and illness have cut short a fairly productive career8 of 18 productive (minimum 4 years with the team that drafted him (44%) -NB

2001 - Defensive Tackles
Rd Sel # Player School Team
1 3 Gerard Warren Florida Cleveland Browns
Played ok for Denver one year, but thats not enough-Bust
1 6 Richard Seymour Georgia New England Patriots
One of the best 3-4 ends in Football-NB
1 12 Damione Lewis Miami (Fla.) St. Louis Rams
Sorry I can't even recall this guy. If you can let me know. BUST
1 13 Marcus Stroud Georgia Jacksonville Jaguars
Very productive for a while at least. His career is now at a crossroads-NB

2002 - Defensive Tackles
Rd Sel # Player School Team
1 6 Ryan Sims North Carolina Kansas City Chiefs
Traded (no make that given) to Tampa where he had a grand total of one sack this year -BUST
1 9 John Henderson Tennessee Jacksonville Jaguars
Pro-Bowl caliber Player-NB
1 12 Wendell Bryant Wisconsin Arizona Cardinals
Wow the Cardinals have a huge problem drafting DL-Bust
1 15 Albert Haynesworth Tennessee Tennessee Titans
Was heading to the bust bin, but he had a career this year. You see this a lot in Baseball, guys have a career year, then return to mediocrity. Jury is still out.

2003 - Defensive Tackles
Rd Sel # Player School Team
1 4 Dewayne Robertson Kentucky New York Jets
Really hard to know what to say about him. Has been playing out of position for the last few years. Jury is still out then.
1 6 Johnathan Sullivan Georgia New Orleans Saints
Out of football in three years. BUST
1 12 Jimmy Kennedy Penn State St. Louis Rams
With guys like Kennedy, Michael Haynes, and Courtney Brown they won't be calling it DLineman U anytime soon. BUST

2004 - Defensive Tackles
Rd Sel # Player School Team
1 14 Tommie Harris Oklahoma Chicago Bears
Good player, bordering on great in-fact, but like Cory Simon. He can't seem to stay healthy. NB

Score Card 19 drafted in the top 15 since 94. 6 Flat out Busts (31.5%), 2 Awaiting Verdict. 1 Hall of Famer, 10 of 19 productive (minimum 4 years with the team that drafted him (53%) Note: I was brought to my attention that Kevin Williams DT Minn. and Vince Wilfolk NT NE are not in the sample. The data came from the nfl.com site, and they had them noted as DE in their records, but since they both have played DT since their time in the league. I will change the numbers. Williams was a fast riser in 03, he was the guy Minn. drafted after the clock ran out twice on their pick. Now that is lucky. They make the total 19.

Quarterbacks
1994 - Quarterbacks
Rd Sel # Player School Team
1 3 Heath Shuler Tennessee Washington Redskins
This guy was a hell of a prospect. Had it all, but just didn't have "it" He's running for congress or something I heard, maybe thats his deal. BUST
1 6 Trent Dilfer Fresno State Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Was a bust in Tampa, but has had a decent time in the NFL including starting for a Super Bowl winner. Boy did Mel rip the Colts a new one for not drafting him. NB

1995 - Quarterbacks
Rd Sel # Player School Team
1 3 Steve McNair Alcorn State Houston Oilers
2003 NFL Player of the Year. Kept the Titans competitive for years. NB
1 5 Kerry Collins Penn State Carolina Panthers
Had his issues in Carolina, and New Orleans. But remember he did get the Panthers to the NFC title game, and was the Giant's starter in Super Bowl XXXV-NB

1998 - Quarterbacks
Rd Sel # Player School Team
1 1 Peyton Manning Tennessee Indianapolis Colts
Going down as one of the all time greats-NB
1 2 Ryan Leaf Washington State San Diego Chargers
Went down as one of the all time great busts-BUST

1999 - Quarterbacks
Rd Sel # Player School Team
1 1 Tim Couch Kentucky Cleveland Browns
His career never got off the ground, and it kind of took Chris Palmer's rep as a QB guru with it. BUST
1 2 Donovan McNabb Syracuse Philadelphia Eagles
A Great Player, although I have always thought miscast in Reid's dink and dunk offense. Gets a lot of the blame here in Phllytown, but one year he had a real weapon. He was flat out awesome. NB
1 3 Akili Smith Oregon Cincinnati Bengals
He washed out in two sports fairly quickly didn't he? BUST
1 11 Daunte Culpepper Central Florida Minnesota Vikings
Although his career has been in a steep decline the last three years. He was a pro bowl caliber QB at one point. NB
1 12 Cade McNown UCLA Chicago Bears
Bears fans have to be doubly pizzed off at McNown. Not only did he stink, but he forced them to take Rex four years later. BUST

2001 - Quarterbacks
Rd Sel # Player School Team
1 1 Michael Vick Virginia Tech Atlanta Falcons
His career was red hot at one point, and I have my issues with heavy handed law enforcement, but Mike you got to be smart enough to know you're living in the Fishbowl. NB

2002 - Quarterbacks
Rd Sel # Player School Team
1 1 David Carr Fresno State Houston Texans
Use to think it was the team he played for, but it's not-Bust
1 3 Joey Harrington Oregon Detroit Lions
Ditto for him-Bust

2003 - Quarterbacks
Rd Sel # Player School Team
1 1 Carson Palmer USC Cincinnati Bengals
Was headed to greatness, then his knee got ripped up. Still a very good player, but something has changed. Maybe its the team. NB
1 7 Byron Leftwich Marshall Jacksonville Jaguars
Another guy who started out well. Could he be the next Jim Plunkett and savage his career somewhere else? Jury is still out.

2004 - Quarterbacks
Rd Sel # Player School Team
1 1 Eli Manning Mississippi San Diego Chargers
Silencing his critics, and you will never take his Super Bowl away from him. NB
1 4 Philip Rivers North Carolina State New York Giants
So far, so good for him. Next few years are telling for him. They are man for man the most talented roster in the NFL. Jury is still out.
1 11 Ben Roethlisberger Miami (Ohio) Pittsburgh Steelers
Like Eli, he had a big hand in a Super Bowl win. NB

Scorecard
19 top 15 picks. 7 flat out busts (37%). 2 awaiting Jury verdicts. 8 very serviceable of at least four years, but two not with the same team (Collins, Difer). Minimum four years of production scorecard with same team 6 of 19(31.5%)

For those fans of Jake Long I will do a OT sample when I have time (the quick look shows about 33% rate). One final thought, if your GM tells you, there isn't some luck with all this. Then he's a damn liar, and you should run him out of town. Enjoy

etk
03-23-2008, 07:44 PM
Ryan Sims was never cut, he was traded to the Bucs for a late round pick. Replace his name with Jonathan Sullivan and the explanation is correct.

Way to have a non-biased sample too....you left out Kevin Williams and Vince Wilfork among others I assume.

DonWoods33
03-23-2008, 08:00 PM
Ryan Sims was never cut, he was traded to the Bucs for a late round pick. Replace his name with Jonathan Sullivan and the explanation is correct.

Way to have a non-biased sample too....you left out Kevin Williams and Vince Wilfork among others I assume.

Fixed it. Williams and Wilfolk were drafted as DE's according to NFL.com. So are you happy now? Not sure what your driving at saying I am biased, was merely raising the issue. So many experts on here, and too little research.

Dam8610
03-23-2008, 08:07 PM
Sometimes teams are 100% sure that the guy they drafted is elite...and they're wrong. I'm sure the teams you listed there didn't draft their highly touted QB thinking "well, this guy might be the real deal, but we're not sure". Considering how highly most of the players that were involved were drafted, those teams had to feel pretty sure about those QBs, because if they weren't, why wouldn't they make a pick they felt better about at another position of need?

etk
03-23-2008, 08:10 PM
Fixed it. Williams and Wilfolk were drafted as DE's according to NFL.com. So are you happy now? Not sure what your driving at saying I am biased, was merely raising the issue. So many experts on here, and too little research.

It would appear that you had an agenda since you ommited the 2, but I guess it's not your fault. No harm, no foul.

DonWoods33
03-23-2008, 08:20 PM
It would appear that you had an agenda since you ommited the 2, but I guess it's not your fault. No harm, no foul.

I will fix it. They are primarily DT you're right on that. It will raise the average a little bit. Didn't mean to be defensive, but really I have no agenda. As I recall you are a Falcon's fan I believe. I know your pain. I have been a Charger fan my whole life and have known more bad then good.

mqtirishfan
03-23-2008, 08:23 PM
Am I the only one wondering who considered Andre Wadsworth to be a DT?

DonWoods33
03-23-2008, 08:36 PM
Am I the only one wondering who considered Andre Wadsworth to be a DT?

My bust I thought for sure he played DT. Lots big changes in my life since 98.

TimD
03-23-2008, 08:47 PM
Am I the only one wondering who considered Andre Wadsworth to be a DT?

Cut from a 5-11 team this year. ouch

mqtirishfan
03-23-2008, 08:51 PM
Cut from a 5-11 team this year. ouch

Well, he is 32 and has bad knees.

DawgBone
03-23-2008, 09:55 PM
Sometimes teams are 100% sure that the guy they drafted is elite...and they're wrong. I'm sure the teams you listed there didn't draft their highly touted QB thinking "well, this guy might be the real deal, but we're not sure". Considering how highly most of the players that were involved were drafted, those teams had to feel pretty sure about those QBs, because if they weren't, why wouldn't they make a pick they felt better about at another position of need?

Sometimes the guys they draft are elite, but they quit working for one reason or another. Some people get payed then never work as hard again.

FA1
03-24-2008, 12:04 AM
didn't Carr run a gimmick offense as Fresno State?

Actually, the offense Carr ran at Fresno wasn't bad.

Seriously, how do these guys make so much money (the scouts I mean)?

Because favoritism and nepotism is still widespread in the industry. A lot of guys don't have their jobs based on merit, but instead because who they know.

SchizophrenicBatman
03-24-2008, 12:09 AM
Damione Lewis has been a solid rotation guy since signing with Carolina. One dimensional, and certainly not a 1st rounder, but solid nonetheless

With regards to Carr, I think Tedford had his fingers on the offense and David in Fresno some, despite moving on early in his career

FA1
03-24-2008, 12:10 AM
Brodie Croyal wasn't exactly a slouch in college, and he is now a starting NFL quarterback, even if it does not last too long.

Actually, Jackson transfered from Arkansas, where he failed to beat out Matt Jones at QB.

adamprez2003
03-24-2008, 01:51 AM
And maybe not even then!

Since 1998, a span of 10 drafts, there have been 16 QBs taken in the top 10 overall. I will say the jury is still out on 6 of them, all of the guys drafted in 2004 or later. Of the other 10, 6 can be considered busts (Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington, and Byron Leftwich). Of the remaining four, one is currently in jail. That means of those 10 top 10 QBs taken between 1998 and 2003, only 3 are currently legit starters in the league. This isn't baseball where .300 is considered a success. How can you invest the considerable amount of money and years of patience it takes to draft a QB in the top 10, knowing the success rate is at or under 40% (depending on whether you consider Michael Vick a success or not)?

There have been 12 other QBs taken in the 1st round since 1998, bringing the total number of 1st round QBs to 28. Again, the jury is still out on 4 more of them, although Roethlisberger has stepped into the legit category. Chad Pennington falls somewhere in the middle ground between legitimate and illegitimate, and Daunte Culpepper was legit before his injury. However, 5 more can be added to the bust column (Cade McNown, Patrick Ramsey, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, and J.P. Losman).

To recap the numbers:
Top 10 QBs
16 total
6 awaiting judgment
3 legit starters
1 phenom in jail
6 busts (60%+ failure rate)

1st round QBs
28 total
10 awaiting judgment
4 legit starters
1 formerly legit starter
1 average starter
1 phenom in jail
11 busts (61.1%+ failure rate)

Now let's attack this argument from a different angle.

There are 32 teams in the league. Four of those teams are starting Pro Bowl-caliber former 1st rounders. Nine are starting 1st rounders who I've left the jury out on, although that jury has almost reached a positive verdict on Eli Manning and a less-than-positive verdict on Alex Smith. Four teams have former 1st rounders, two of which I've labeled busts, competing for the starting job (McNair, Pennington, Harrington, and Grossman). Three teams are starting former 2nd rounders (Brees, Beck-reach, and Jackson-major reach). Three more teams are going with former 3rd rounders (Croyle, Schaub-who I compared to Brady coming out, and Edwards-who I had as a possible late 1st rounder last year). A whopping NINE teams are starting QBs who were 2nd day picks or undrafted entirely. I consider six of those nine to be at least solid starters, excluding Derek Anderson, Jon Kitna, and Jake Delhomme. Still, SIX solid NFL starting QBs taken in the 4th round or later.

If I were in charge of an NFL team, even with a dire need at QB, I would not take a QB in the top 10 unless I was 100% sure that he is an elite prospect. I am sure there is NOT an elite QB prospect in this year's class. Matt Ryan is not an elite prospect. Brian Brohm is not. Neither is Joe Flacco, nor Chad Henne. There is no Peyton Manning. No Carson Palmer.

Eli Manning, Vince Young, and JaMarcus Russell all had tools worthy of being picked in the top 10. Alex Smith did not... and we see where he is today. I thought I liked Philip Rivers more than anyone when he was coming out, as I had him slotted in the mid 1st when others still had him in the 2nd and even 3rd round. I was obviously wrong, because even I'm not sure I would have taken him in the top 10. Conversely, I was sold on Roethlisberger as a top 10 pick. Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler were right on the border and were drafted accordingly.

Maybe I've strayed from the point a bit, but to reiterate, there is no elite QB prospect in this year's draft, and I would not ever spend a top 10 pick, top 10 money, and top 10 patience on a QB I was not 100% sure of. I would rather dedicate a 2nd day pick each year to find one or more of those hidden gems.

Its a nice post and you bring up alot of valid points but it seems to me that unless a QB has top 5 athleticism (arm or legs) you wouldnt draft them top 10. I definitely believe that athleticism is the most important facet when picking top ten just not with QBs. With QBs I'm looking for brains, accuracy, some mobility and a minimum arm strength equivalent of Tom Brady. I think Ryan has all those qualities so to me he qualifies. Having said that, one would always prefer to have a Carson Palmer arm with Michael Vick legs

adamprez2003
03-24-2008, 01:57 AM
Why, why, WHY are so many people sleeping on Brian Brohm? To say Ryan is on a different level is just plain wrong! If Ryan is #1, Brohm is still #1a, yet everyone seems to have forgotten all about him. Ryan is taller, but Brohm still has every bit the prototypical build (6'3 230) and is a slightly better overall athlete. Brohm also has a slightly BETTER arm, which is widely misperceived. And I will argue with ANYONE who questions Brohm's preparedness for the next level. Wake up, people! I agree about Brohm but for different reasons. I do feel that he got slammed too hard for Louisville's failures this year. To me he's a top ten prospect but only if you run a west coast or a system like Cameron will run in Baltimore. Is he top ten based on talent? No, but he is top ten based on the difficulty in finding legitimate QB prospects year to year. I dont think you would consider him if you run a vertically based offensive scheme. If you run a west coast offense the guy is perfect

Dam8610
03-24-2008, 07:44 AM
Sometimes the guys they draft are elite, but they quit working for one reason or another. Some people get payed then never work as hard again.

That's one thing that can happen, sometimes guys lose their confidence, and sometimes they're just not as talented as everyone thought they were coming out, but regardless, if an NFL team doesn't feel like they're getting a franchise QB, they're not going to pick that player in the first round.

I agree about Brohm but for different reasons. I do feel that he got slammed too hard for Louisville's failures this year. To me he's a top ten prospect but only if you run a west coast or a system like Cameron will run in Baltimore. Is he top ten based on talent? No, but he is top ten based on the difficulty in finding legitimate QB prospects year to year. I dont think you would consider him if you run a vertically based offensive scheme. If you run a west coast offense the guy is perfect

Brian Brohm's 2007 = Carson Palmer's 2007 = Peyton Manning's 2001, perceived regression due to lack of any support from any other part of the team. I think whoever picks Brohm will end up with the best QB of this class.

Halsey
03-24-2008, 08:16 AM
You can never be 100% sure a QB is elite...

Many fans have become foolish with the way they view QB's. QB is not the only position in which there have been a lot of busts. Every position has a lot of busts. People just remember QB's better. Qb is a high risk/high reward position. 2 of the last 3 Super Bowl winning teams had #1 overall picks at QB. 3 of the last 3 super Bowl winning QB's were picked top 15. The Colts, Giants, Chargers, Titans, Bangals, etc all agree that picking a QB top 10 can be a good move. I'll take thier opinions over message board experts.

FA1
03-24-2008, 03:33 PM
Its a nice post and you bring up alot of valid points but it seems to me that unless a QB has top 5 athleticism (arm or legs) you wouldnt draft them top 10. I definitely believe that athleticism is the most important facet when picking top ten just not with QBs. With QBs I'm looking for brains, accuracy, some mobility and a minimum arm strength equivalent of Tom Brady. I think Ryan has all those qualities so to me he qualifies. Having said that, one would always prefer to have a Carson Palmer arm with Michael Vick legs

No, athleticism is a nice bonus, but is certainly not as important in a QB. I look for leadership, timing, awareness, and accuracy ahead of arm strength and overall athleticism. However, I'm just simply not sold on Matt Ryan. I do like his leadership and demeanor under pressure, but he makes a lot of bad decisions and doesn't have the overwhelming arm or athleticism to make up for it. To me, in a normal year, he is a 16-25 range prospect. In a poor year like this, maybe 11-20. Having seen hundreds of QBs go through college, the draft, and onto the pros, he's just not a top 10 talent to me.

AdropOFvenom
03-24-2008, 11:05 PM
Three more teams are going with former 3rd rounders (Croyle, Schaub-who I compared to Brady coming out, and Edwards-who I had as a possible late 1st rounder last year). A whopping NINE teams are starting QBs who were 2nd day picks or undrafted entirely. I consider six of those nine to be at least solid starters, excluding Derek Anderson, Jon Kitna, and Jake Delhomme. Still, SIX solid NFL starting QBs taken in the 4th round or later.

I would rather dedicate a 2nd day pick each year to find one or more of those hidden gems.

From 1996-2005, 84 Quarterbacks were selected from the 3rd Round to the 7th Round of the NFL Draft. I'm excluding the last 2 drafts because it's too soon to tell with them. Of them, only 6 became what you could classify as a 'Franchise Quarterback' (Derek Anderson, Matt Schaub, David Garrard, Marc Bulger, Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck). Of course, Derek Anderson was originally drafted by the Baltimore Ravens and was cut, so really that only makes 5 successes for the team that drafted them (Hasselbeck and Schaub were traded for more then they were drafted for, which I term a success).

That is a 5.9% Success rate for your lofty expectations.

Or in other words, it's the NFL's equivilant of hitting the lottery. So you can sit there and pluck away at late round QB after late round QB, hoping that you hit the 1 in 20 odds that you find a Franchise QB in there (And even if you do that you didn't give up on him before then), but I'll take my chances with the best prospect available.

(I would expand this to include UDFA's except there's no way of finding out how many tried out only to fail, but the odds would drop even more, trust me.)

Staubach12
03-24-2008, 11:42 PM
From 1996-2005, 84 Quarterbacks were selected from the 3rd Round to the 7th Round of the NFL Draft. I'm excluding the last 2 drafts because it's too soon to tell with them. Of them, only 6 became what you could classify as a 'Franchise Quarterback' (Derek Anderson, Matt Schaub, David Garrard, Marc Bulger, Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck). Of course, Derek Anderson was originally drafted by the Baltimore Ravens and was cut, so really that only makes 5 successes for the team that drafted them (Hasselbeck and Schaub were traded for more then they were drafted for, which I term a success).

That is a 5.9% Success rate for your lofty expectations.

Or in other words, it's the NFL's equivilant of hitting the lottery. So you can sit there and pluck away at late round QB after late round QB, hoping that you hit the 1 in 20 odds that you find a Franchise QB in there (And even if you do that you didn't give up on him before then), but I'll take my chances with the best prospect available.

(I would expand this to include UDFA's except there's no way of finding out how many tried out only to fail, but the odds would drop even more, trust me.)

That's one every 20 picks. Have fun looking for a QB for 20 years, FA.

FA1
03-24-2008, 11:56 PM
Many, many of those late round QBs are simply an unknown because they never got the chance to start. Also, how much money was invested in those late round QBs? Anywhere near as much as the 1st rounders? Furthermore, how many late round QBs have set their organization back 3 or 4 years by failing to live up to their expectations?

Find out how many of those 84 QBs got a shot to start... then divide your starters from that pool. I agree the percentage will still be lower, but for the money invested, I'd take my chances and trust my eye for talent and coaching staff to find a guy who can and prepare him to get the job done.

Again, I am NOT necessarily advocating only taking 2nd day QBs. I am advocating NOT taking a QB in the top 10 unless you have FULL confidence in that guy or his upside is just too much to pass up. And I am saying that there is no QB like that in this year's draft.

JT Jag
03-25-2008, 01:19 AM
It's not about the quarterback: It's about the team around him.

Develop a good offensive line first--- so your stopgap doesn't get killed.

Then grow some position player talent. WRs. RBs. Tight ends are critical for young QBs.

After you have a solid defense and an ok offense WITHOUT a franchise quarterback... get your franchise quarterback.

This strategy has worked wonders for Carson Palmer (albeit sans the solid defense part).

Staubach12
03-25-2008, 12:13 PM
Many, many of those late round QBs are simply an unknown because they never got the chance to start.

Oh, no. Why would that ever happen?! Maybe because they didn't show potential in practice? The coaches know the players...


Also, how much money was invested in those late round QBs? Anywhere near as much as the 1st rounders?

If you pick one every year like you said, that's going to add up.


Furthermore, how many late round QBs have set their organization back 3 or 4 years by failing to live up to their expectations?

Well, it'll make one when the Joe Shmoe you draft turns out to be a nobody.


Find out how many of those 84 QBs got a shot to start... then divide your starters from that pool. I agree the percentage will still be lower, but for the money invested, I'd take my chances and trust my eye for talent and coaching staff to find a guy who can and prepare him to get the job done.

However, you're suggesting drafting one QB every year. Money adds up, and you can't keep 20 QBs on your roster, so you'd eventually have to give up on them.


Again, I am NOT necessarily advocating only taking 2nd day QBs.

I recall you saying "I'd take a QB 2nd day every year to find that hidden gem."


I am advocating NOT taking a QB in the top 10 unless you have FULL confidence in that guy or his upside is just too much to pass up. And I am saying that there is no QB like that in this year's draft.

On this note, I agree. High five.


My responses in bold.

luee
03-25-2008, 01:25 PM
Eli Manning might have won a superbowl, but I don't think he has impressed too much. Vick wasn't bad either until the dog issues. Too bad him and Bobby Petrino never got a shot together.


I do not understand the lack of respect Eli gets. 3 straight play-offs, a high amount of TD passes, a comeback kid, everyone he plays with on offense has career years, and he gets no recognition. He was a unanimous one coming out of school and has surpassed the expectations. No it was not Tiki who made him.

Is it the draft day refusal, anti NY bias, his quiet nature? The perspective should change drasticly after the SB MVP year.

Staubach12
03-25-2008, 01:45 PM
I do not understand the lack of respect Eli gets. 3 straight play-offs, a high amount of TD passes, a comeback kid, everyone he plays with on offense has career years, and he gets no recognition. He was a unanimous one coming out of school and has surpassed the expectations. No it was not Tiki who made him.

Is it the draft day refusal, anti NY bias, his quiet nature? The perspective should change drasticly after the SB MVP year.

I've actually begun to eat some crow about Eli. For a while, I maintained that his accuracy issues and questionable leadership would only allow him to be an average QB. However, he's worked out a lot of those issues and it's obvious that he can lead a team as he's QB of the superbowl champs. I respect him, and I think it's time everyone else did, as well.

mqtirishfan
03-25-2008, 04:10 PM
I do not understand the lack of respect Eli gets. 3 straight play-offs, a high amount of TD passes, a comeback kid, everyone he plays with on offense has career years, and he gets no recognition. He was a unanimous one coming out of school and has surpassed the expectations. No it was not Tiki who made him.

Is it the draft day refusal, anti NY bias, his quiet nature? The perspective should change drasticly after the SB MVP year.


I think it has a lot to do with his career 73.4 QB rating, 54.7 completion percentage, the fact he had more turnovers than TD passes this year, his 64 Interceptions in 57 games, etc.

JT Jag
03-25-2008, 08:43 PM
Eli honestly reminds me of a younger Elway.

A lot of similarities in their two careers so far.

AdropOFvenom
03-25-2008, 10:50 PM
Many, many of those late round QBs are simply an unknown because they never got the chance to start.

In most cases, they didn't do anything to deserve an opportunity to start. In fact, I would venture to guess that at least 30% of them didn't even make the team out of camp. But by a quick count at least 31 of them started at least 1 game in the NFL to my knowledge, I probably missed a few.

Also, how much money was invested in those late round QBs? Anywhere near as much as the 1st rounders? Furthermore, how many late round QBs have set their organization back 3 or 4 years by failing to live up to their expectations?

Not a ton of money, although it would add up, but....if you began to draft a Day 2 QB to start year after year in hopes of finding a Franchise QB I would imagine you would set your organization back even longer then that, perhaps decades, before you hit the lottery and find a Franchise QB.

Find out how many of those 84 QBs got a shot to start... then divide your starters from that pool. I agree the percentage will still be lower, but for the money invested, I'd take my chances and trust my eye for talent and coaching staff to find a guy who can and prepare him to get the job done.

That's assuming that there's many hidden studs out there that just haven't gotten the chance to shine yet. There might be 1 or 2 of them like that (Sage Rosenfels seems the most likely), but the heavy majority of those QB's did nothing to warrent the opportunity to start. Thus why shouldn't you completely neglect them, as there's more then a 50% chance you get one of them.

Again, I am NOT necessarily advocating only taking 2nd day QBs. I am advocating NOT taking a QB in the top 10 unless you have FULL confidence in that guy or his upside is just too much to pass up. And I am saying that there is no QB like that in this year's draft.

Fair enough, but if you're going to be like that there might be 1 QB every decade that you have absolutely no doubt in your mind that he's going to be a Stud. Peyton Manning was the last one that fit that description with me. At some point you're going to have to take a chance on some kid who is 95% there and bank that you can coach up, or hide, the other areas of weakness.