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View Full Version : Football factories not living up to the hype with its prospects?


Geo
03-20-2008, 12:14 AM
Another thread to drum up discussion.

This is something that's reeeaaaally been on my mind. Namely big schools that are delivering big duds in terms of prospects.

Maybe culprit numero uno is Southern Cal. Look at all the prospects from the school who don't do anything versus the ones who actually do. It's a bundle versus a handful, seems like. And I think it continues this year, I don't think Fred Davis works as well in the pros as he did his senior year in college. Sed Ellis will, Keith Rivers ... eh, probably does. Terrell Thomas? Lawrence Jackson?

Another school - Oklahoma. What was the last prospect they delivered that actually lived up to their promise, nevermind didn't suck? Adrian Peterson who is amazing but we knew that since he graced their campus, and Tommie Harris in 2004 was probably the one before that. Wow, I hope I'm missing someone, because that's awful otherwise.

Who was the last nameworthy Georgia Bulldogs player? Richard Seymour? Reggie Brown is playing in the league and all, but come on. Tim Jennings is doing alright with the Colts, I suppose.

What's going on with these "football factories" producing disappointment after disappointment? Meanwhile some other schools like Ohio State, LSU, Michigan, and even Texas despite bad coaching (!) are churning out pros like they should. Thank goodness Nick Saban is back.

Is Florida under Urban Meyer the next culprit? Another school you've got in mind? Are you like I am, especially leery of another Trojans player because of the great bust rate they've shown for themselves in prospects the last half-dozen years or so?

Chime in.

Brent
03-20-2008, 12:18 AM
Texas despite bad coaching (!) is churning out pros like they should.
I have heard several times that their players come into the league underdeveloped in comparison to their physical talents. Which makes sense because, and even my UT friends will agree, Mac Brown relies more on a player's abilities then bothering to coach them up.

Personally, it seems like the only consistent football factory is Miami.

Cashmoney
03-20-2008, 12:18 AM
I've been dissappointed lately with Tennessee's prospects. Hefney fell off the face of the earth, Eric Young has never impressed me as much as other people on this board, Erik Ainge isn't going to go high. We just haven't churned out as much pro talent lately, especially elite talents. (i.e. Manning, Henderson, Stallworth, Haynesworth)

Geo
03-20-2008, 12:21 AM
I bet if you polled one hundred Cowboys fans, a quarter would know that the best tight end in the league in Jason Witten played at Tennessee.

Cashmoney
03-20-2008, 12:25 AM
I bet if you polled one hundred Cowboys fans, a quarter would know that the best tight end in the league in Jason Witten played at Tennessee.

Yea, we are definitely not known for producing NFL TE's, so I'm pretty excited to see what happens with Cottam and if some team gives Chris Brown a shot.

DragonFireKai
03-20-2008, 01:13 AM
Another thread to drum up discussion.

Another school - Oklahoma. What was the last prospect they delivered that actually lived up to their promise, nevermind didn't suck? Adrian Peterson who is amazing but we knew that since he graced their campus, and Tommie Harris in 2004 was probably the one before that. Wow, I hope I'm missing someone, because that's awful otherwise.

Jamaal Brown. Who are these prospects who've sucked from Oklahoma recently?

schmiddog
03-20-2008, 01:21 AM
Geo-Regardless of USC's past history, you simply cannot, given the inexact nature of draft evaluation, use your own opinions (I'm talking about your assessment of the currently draft eligible USC prospects) to objectively make the assessment you're making about the school as a "faux" football factory...

The past is the past, but the future cannot be projected in such an absolute way.

DragonFireKai
03-20-2008, 02:10 AM
Well, let's look at the first round picks from those schools since 2002, and see who's got the biggest bust ratio. I'll throw out the 07 class, because some players haven't gotten a chance to start.

USC
Busts: Kenichi Udeze 04 (I know he has leukemia, but that didn't make ernie davis any less of a wasted pick.), Mike Williams 05, Reggie Bush 06, Matt Leinart 06,
Not: Carson Palmer 03, Troy Polamalu 03, Mike Patterson 05,
Bust Ratio: 57%

OU
Bust: Andre Woolfork 03
Not: Roy Williams 02, Tommie Harris 04, Jamaal Brown 05, Mark Clayton 05, Davin Joseph 06,
Bust Ratio: 17%

UGA
Bust: Jonathon Sullivan 03, David Pollack 05
Not: Charles Grant 02, George Foster 03, Ben Watson 04, Thomas Davis 05,
Bust Ratio: 33%

OSU
Bust: Michael Jenkins 04, Bobby Carpenter 06,
Not: Will Smith 04, Chris Gamble 04, AJ Hawk 06, Donte Whitner 06, Santonio Holmes 06, Nick Mangold 06
Bust Ratio: 25%

LSU
Bust: Michael Clayton 04 (I know he got 1,100 yards as a rookie, but he fell off harder than Ang Lee's career post hulk),
Not: Marcus Spears 05, Joseph Addai 06
Bust ratio: 33%

UMich
Bust: Chris Perry 04,
Not: Braylon Edwards 05, Marlin Jackson 05
Bust Ratio: 33%

UT
Bust: Marcus Tubbs 04, Cedric Benson 05
Not: Mike Williams 02, Quentin Jammer 02, Roy E. Williams 04, Derrick Johnson 05, Vince Young 06, Michael Huff 06,
Bust Ratio: 25%

UF
Bust: Rex Grossman 03,
Not: Lito Sheppard 02,
Bust Ratio: 25%

UMia
Bust: Phillip Buchanon 02, Mike Rumph 02, Jerome McDougle 03, William Joseph 03
Not: Bryant McKinnie 02, Jeremy Shockey 02, Ed Reed 02, Andre Johnson 03, Willis McGahee 03, Sean Taylor 04, Kellen Winslow 04, Jon Vilma 04, DJ Williams 04, Vernon Carey 04, Vince Wilfork 04, Antrell Rolle 05, Kelly Jennings 06
Bust Ratio: 24%

USC and Florida are higher than the rest, Florida is more due to their infitesimal sample size (The same as Oregon State, but OSU 1st rounders were all hits, truly THE OSU). Both Florida and USC had subpar coaching for a stretch. As a testament to Carroll's recruiting acumen, 2003 coincides with the senior year of Carroll's first recruiting class, it produced 2 pro bowl first rounders. The previous 5 years produced only two first rounders, both of whom were busts.

Addict
03-20-2008, 03:05 AM
the U's list looks very scary.

FA1
03-20-2008, 08:45 AM
USC
Busts: Kenichi Udeze 04 (I know he has leukemia, but that didn't make ernie davis any less of a wasted pick.), Mike Williams 05, Reggie Bush 06, Matt Leinart 06,
Not: Carson Palmer 03, Troy Polamalu 03, Mike Patterson 05,
Bust Ratio: 57%

You can't call any player who has only been in the league for 2 years either a bust or not.

UGA
Bust: Jonathon Sullivan 03, David Pollack 05
Not: Charles Grant 02, George Foster 03, Ben Watson 04, Thomas Davis 05,
Bust Ratio: 33%

You can't call David Pollack a bust for getting injured. Besides that, how can you not consider George Foster a bust?

MetSox17
03-20-2008, 09:11 AM
I have heard several times that their players come into the league underdeveloped in comparison to their physical talents. Which makes sense because, and even my UT friends will agree, Mac Brown relies more on a player's abilities then bothering to coach them up.

Personally, it seems like the only consistent football factory is Miami.

I agree whole heartedly.
I have been one of the biggest Mack Brown critics that's also a Longhorn fan.
Hate the way he recruits, hate the fact that his loyalty gets in the way of being a football coach sometimes, and I also hate that the talent he has
never seems to develop.

They get 5 stars on 5 stars, and most of them don't get to see
the field until they're jr's, or unless they're really needed. I guess
that's why the only play that has left as a junior before this year
was Vince Young.

With all that being said, they're still churning out pro's like
it's no one's business. I guess from a GM's standpoint it's a good thing
that their players usually take a year or two to really develop
as pro's, seeing as they can take them later on in the draft.

I still like the players The U puts out. Seems like every year
they're still putting out first round talents. Can't help but think
how they don't win a lot more than they do with the players
that they have..

georgiafan
03-20-2008, 10:05 AM
I don't think it's fair to call Pollack a bust since he was hurt. But the last few years there hasn't been a lot of big time prospects for UGA, but that should change in the next few years. Matthew Stafford, Knowshon Moreno, Trinton Sturdivant, Rashard Jones, Geno Atikns, and Asher Allen and a few more have 1st round potential.

Geo
03-20-2008, 10:30 AM
Geo-Regardless of USC's past history, you simply cannot, given the inexact nature of draft evaluation, use your own opinions (I'm talking about your assessment of the currently draft eligible USC prospects) to objectively make the assessment you're making about the school as a "faux" football factory...

The past is the past, but the future cannot be projected in such an absolute way.
I think Carroll running such a loose ship though is relevant though, some of the talent he's bringing in isn't developing enough of a work ethic. In a similar vein, the size they've recruited at receiver, helps them succeed in the college game but is negated in the pros and points out their lack of speed and quickness, and stresses the need of a work ethic to produce.

Obviously, not every player from Southern Cal comes to the league without enough of a work ethic of their own, there are guys who definitely do. Some prospects just aren't factors when they are playing an NFL team, rather than this week's group drubbing of Oregon State. But there are definitely guys who deliver on the playing field and on the practice field, guys like Mike Patterson, Lofa Tatupu, and so on.

I'm not saying I expect all guys from Southern Cal to fail. Still, some guys I would be cautious with, especially after seeing what happened before with the school's prospects at the particular positions.

kmartin575
03-20-2008, 10:38 AM
Well, let's look at the first round picks from those schools since 2002, and see who's got the biggest bust ratio. I'll throw out the 07 class, because some players haven't gotten a chance to start.

USC
Busts: Kenichi Udeze 04 (I know he has leukemia, but that didn't make ernie davis any less of a wasted pick.), Mike Williams 05, Reggie Bush 06, Matt Leinart 06,
Not: Carson Palmer 03, Troy Polamalu 03, Mike Patterson 05,
Bust Ratio: 57%

OU
Bust: Andre Woolfork 03
Not: Roy Williams 02, Tommie Harris 04, Jamaal Brown 05, Mark Clayton 05, Davin Joseph 06,
Bust Ratio: 17%

UGA
Bust: Jonathon Sullivan 03, David Pollack 05
Not: Charles Grant 02, George Foster 03, Ben Watson 04, Thomas Davis 05,
Bust Ratio: 33%

OSU
Bust: Michael Jenkins 04, Bobby Carpenter 06,
Not: Will Smith 04, Chris Gamble 04, AJ Hawk 06, Donte Whitner 06, Santonio Holmes 06, Nick Mangold 06
Bust Ratio: 25%

LSU
Bust: Michael Clayton 04 (I know he got 1,100 yards as a rookie, but he fell off harder than Ang Lee's career post hulk),
Not: Marcus Spears 05, Joseph Addai 06
Bust ratio: 33%

UMich
Bust: Chris Perry 04,
Not: Braylon Edwards 05, Marlin Jackson 05
Bust Ratio: 33%

UT
Bust: Marcus Tubbs 04, Cedric Benson 05
Not: Mike Williams 02, Quentin Jammer 02, Roy E. Williams 04, Derrick Johnson 05, Vince Young 06, Michael Huff 06,
Bust Ratio: 25%

UF
Bust: Rex Grossman 03,
Not: Lito Sheppard 02,
Bust Ratio: 25%

UMia
Bust: Phillip Buchanon 02, Mike Rumph 02, Jerome McDougle 03, William Joseph 03
Not: Bryant McKinnie 02, Jeremy Shockey 02, Ed Reed 02, Andre Johnson 03, Willis McGahee 03, Sean Taylor 04, Kellen Winslow 04, Jon Vilma 04, DJ Williams 04, Vernon Carey 04, Vince Wilfork 04, Antrell Rolle 05, Kelly Jennings 06
Bust Ratio: 24%

USC and Florida are higher than the rest, Florida is more due to their infitesimal sample size (The same as Oregon State, but OSU 1st rounders were all hits, truly THE OSU). Both Florida and USC had subpar coaching for a stretch. As a testament to Carroll's recruiting acumen, 2003 coincides with the senior year of Carroll's first recruiting class, it produced 2 pro bowl first rounders. The previous 5 years produced only two first rounders, both of whom were busts.


Give me a break, how is Leinart a bust? He was actually pretty damn good as a rookie. So because he got injured he is now a bust?

And David Pollack doesn't count as a bust either. Having your neck broken is an unfortunate incident and in no way a reason to call him a bust.

soybean
03-20-2008, 10:53 AM
LSU
Bust: Michael Clayton 04 (I know he got 1,100 yards as a rookie, but he fell off harder than Ang Lee's career post hulk),
Not: Marcus Spears 05, Joseph Addai 06
Bust ratio: 33%


yeah, winning an academy award for brokeback mountain was nothing special...

ps. some would consider antrel rolle a bust or at least not living up to expectations.

soybean
03-20-2008, 10:58 AM
I think Carroll running such a loose ship though is relevant though, some of the talent he's bringing in isn't developing enough of a work ethic. In a similar vein, the size they've recruited at receiver, helps them succeed in the college game but is negated in the pros and points out their lack of speed and quickness, and stresses the need of a work ethic to produce.

Obviously, not every player from Southern Cal comes to the league without enough of a work ethic of their own, there are guys who definitely do. Some prospects just aren't factors when they are playing an NFL team, rather than this week's group drubbing of Oregon State. But there are definitely guys who deliver on the playing field and on the practice field, guys like Mike Patterson, Lofa Tatupu, and so on.

I'm not saying I expect all guys from Southern Cal to fail. Still, some guys I would be cautious with, especially after seeing what happened before with the school's prospects at the particular positions.

it has nothing to do with carroll. the ones that struggle in the pros are those that receive all the hype in college. look at the ones that receive relatively low hype, they turn out to be pretty damn good player. it's not the coaches' fault it's the media.

fenikz
03-20-2008, 11:01 AM
yeah, winning an academy award for brokeback mountain was nothing special...

ps. some would consider antrel rolle a bust or at least not living up to expectations.

I would just say he was playing the wrong position and under a terrible coach(Denny Green)

last year under good coaching and in the right scheme he had one of the greatest games by a CB ever

soybean
03-20-2008, 11:06 AM
luckily these trojans aren't getting that much hype individually, but rather as a team. most of them seem like good quality guys.

the one i would be weary about is rey rey. if he had the right coach he could be one of the best LBs in the league.

watch out for galippo in a few years, definition of a hard working quality guy that also just happens to be a damn good football player.

DragonFireKai
03-20-2008, 11:29 AM
You can't call any player who has only been in the league for 2 years either a bust or not.

Most players are either a servicable starter in 3 years, or getting replaced. The league has a brutal turnover rate these days.

You can't call David Pollack a bust for getting injured. Besides that, how can you not consider George Foster a bust?

Because George Foster gave Denver a servicable starter for three years, Pollack gave Cincy a servicable backup for one.

Give me a break, how is Leinart a bust? He was actually pretty damn good as a rookie. So because he got injured he is now a bust?

As of right now, he hasn't thrown more TDs than INTs in any season, and got benched in favor of Kurt Warner before he got hurt. He can still turn it around, but it's not looking good. QBs typically get 3 years, then they get tossed aside if they don't meet expectations.

And David Pollack doesn't count as a bust either. Having your neck broken is an unfortunate incident and in no way a reason to call him a bust.

So Tim Couch wasn't a bust? Charles Rogers wasn't a bust? Injuries are a sad fact of life in football, they can cause someone to fail to meet expectations, and fail to be a productive player. That's the criteria I was using. I can't honestly say Pollack met expectations, same with Udeze. The Bengals were expecting to get a good starting LB/DE, and all they got was more dead money tied up in their cap. They didn't even get a backup level player out of the equation.

yeah, winning an academy award for brokeback mountain was nothing special...

That was Ang Lee? Damn. I didn't like that movie, but it was succesful. Well, I stand corrected.

ps. some would consider antrel rolle a bust or at least not living up to expectations.

He's been a servicable starter, and his skill set points more towards FS/Nickelback anyways.

Iamcanadian
03-20-2008, 11:58 AM
Looks like somebody hates USC. Labelling guys busts who still have a legitimate chance to be good is really off the wall for me.

keylime_5
03-20-2008, 12:05 PM
Miami is ridiculous. USC has a great coaching staff, but a lot of guys like Dwayne Jarrett, Mike Williams, Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush have skills that are perfect for college, but far from perfect for the NFL game. The jury's still out on Bush and Leinart, but unless they both take big steps forwards they're not gonna be considered successes.

keylime_5
03-20-2008, 12:07 PM
Give me a break, how is Leinart a bust? He was actually pretty damn good as a rookie. So because he got injured he is now a bust?

And David Pollack doesn't count as a bust either. Having your neck broken is an unfortunate incident and in no way a reason to call him a bust.

Injuries are an unfortunate part of the game, but you can be a bust even if you are a decent player. See Courntey Brown, Rashaan Salaam, Kijana Carter, Andy Katzenmoyer, Ernie Davis. Busts due to injuries happen all the time.

JT Jag
03-20-2008, 12:22 PM
Jamaal Brown. Who are these prospects who've sucked from Oklahoma recently?I dunno, but Clint Ingram has done well for us in the time since we've drafted him. He isn't asked to do much (we prefer the nickel package without a strongside backer over a normal 4-3), but when he's on the field he doesn't make many mistakes and does what he's asked to do well.

DragonFireKai
03-20-2008, 12:29 PM
Looks like somebody hates USC. Labelling guys busts who still have a legitimate chance to be good is really off the wall for me.

What's hilarious is that I got labeled as a USC Homer in another thread. Theoretically, any player who is still physically capable of playing could concievably turn it around. Theoretically.

I assume you're talking about Matt Leinart. Look at some of the other QBs drafted recently.

Alex Smith played better in 06 than Leinart has in either of his seasons, but one season later, and he's being thrown out.

Jason Campbell has played much better than Leinart, and there's talk about replacing him.

JP Losman got hit with injuries, but despite a good showing in 06, most people accept that he's going to be replaced, either by an incoming rookie or game managing specialist Trent Edwards.

Byron Leftwich was gone after 3.5 seasons

Kyle Boller played very close to how Leinart did, and got replaced after 2.5 seasons.

Rex Grossman got 1.5 seasons as a starter before being benched.

David Carr got 5 seasons, but the Texans we literally starting from scratch.

Joey Harrington got 4 seasons.

Patrick Ramsey got 1.5 seasons before they brought in Marc Brunell.

Drew Brees got three years before the chargers drafted Rivers.

Typically, you can tell within by the second season as a starter if a QB is going to be a servicable starter. Brees was the exception.

JT Jag
03-20-2008, 12:41 PM
*snip*I'd remove the '06 draft class from consideration and also include the second round to get a better idea.

DragonFireKai
03-20-2008, 12:51 PM
I'd remove the '06 draft class from consideration and also include the second round to get a better idea.

Second rounders are far more likely to not get playing time, and eventually surface somewhere else. They aren't anywhere near the commitment that a first rounder is.

Twiddler
03-20-2008, 12:51 PM
it has nothing to do with carroll. the ones that struggle in the pros are those that receive all the hype in college. look at the ones that receive relatively low hype, they turn out to be pretty damn good player. it's not the coaches' fault it's the media.

I see your point but you can't put all of the blame on the media. Carroll has something to do with it also. If you look at other teams there are players who get a lot of attention but the coaches can also keep them grounded by reminding them that they are just in college and have not done a thing to prove themselves in the pros. The coach just doesn't get off scot-free.

soybean
03-20-2008, 01:17 PM
I see your point but you can't put all of the blame on the media. Carroll has something to do with it also. If you look at other teams there are players who get a lot of attention but the coaches can also keep them grounded by reminding them that they are just in college and have not done a thing to prove themselves in the pros. The coach just doesn't get off scot-free.

his first priority is to win football games for his employer/school. I know he's got an obligation to the kids, but it's not like he could've foresaw his athletes turning toward the wrong end.

and carroll can hardly be blamed for mike williams.

also, we're forgetting that the teams that draft these players also have an obligation to make sure they succeed, i'd argue they have more of an obligation than the player's alma mater.

BuddyCHRIST
03-20-2008, 01:19 PM
I don't really consider USC to be a pro football factory, they put out good prospects but they aren't close to what Miami was for a few years. Carrol deserves alot of credit because evidently he's having so much success with guys who aren't as talented as we seem to think.

bearsfan_51
03-20-2008, 01:44 PM
Wait, Roy Williams isn't a bust? Really? Mike Williams isn't a bust? REALLY?

bearsfan_51
03-20-2008, 01:46 PM
I don't really consider USC to be a pro football factory, they put out good prospects but they aren't close to what Miami was for a few years. Carrol deserves alot of credit because evidently he's having so much success with guys who aren't as talented as we seem to think.
It's not just about talent.

The difference is that EVERYONE has great talent in the NFL. USC can just show up and win 70-80% of the time in the Pac-10. Mike Williams knew he was going up against an inferior player most of the time, so he obviously didn't work that hard. It doesn't work that way in the pros. If you have sloppy mechanics and a poor work ethic (see:Cedric Benson and many other UT players), you're going to flop.

roidrunner
03-20-2008, 01:47 PM
I've been dissappointed lately with Tennessee's prospects. Hefney fell off the face of the earth, Eric Young has never impressed me as much as other people on this board, Erik Ainge isn't going to go high. We just haven't churned out as much pro talent lately, especially elite talents. (i.e. Manning, Henderson, Stallworth, Haynesworth)

dont say that.... we draft Harrell last year, and i have high hopes for him

DragonFireKai
03-20-2008, 02:01 PM
Wait, Roy Williams isn't a bust? Really? Mike Williams isn't a bust? REALLY?

With mike williams, I'm being pretty lenient, I was on the fence about him, but I prefered to err on the conservative side. As for Roy Williams, while he was overated for a long time, he's no where near bad enough to be considered a bust.

It's not just about talent.

The difference is that EVERYONE has great talent in the NFL. USC can just show up and win 70-80% of the time in the Pac-10. Mike Williams knew he was going up against an inferior player most of the time, so he obviously didn't work that hard. It doesn't work that way in the pros. If you have sloppy mechanics and a poor work ethic (see:Cedric Benson and many other UT players), you're going to flop.

It's not a matter of competition faced in the PAC 10. They wouldn't have a significantly harder time in the Big 10, Big 12, or any other conference. USC steamrolls pretty much everyone they face recently, even the top tier non conference teams they face. Carroll runs a particular offensive passing system that gears itself towards bigger recievers. Most NFL teams don't run the same style. Mike Williams had poor work ethic in the season that he sat out. The NCAA is more reponsible for Williams failure than Carroll was.

bearsfan_51
03-20-2008, 02:07 PM
It's not a matter of competition faced in the PAC 10. They wouldn't have a significantly harder time in the Big 10, Big 12, or any other conference. USC steamrolls pretty much everyone they face recently, even the top tier non conference teams they face. Carroll runs a particular offensive passing system that gears itself towards bigger recievers. Most NFL teams don't run the same style. Mike Williams had poor work ethic in the season that he sat out. The NCAA is more reponsible for Williams failure than Carroll was.

I just said the Pac-10 because that's the league they are in.

And the NCAA was right. Williams and Clarrett both tried to break the rules and exposed the fact that both were lazy, me-first guys, that didn't really want to work for anything. I'm not blaming Carroll, Tressell, or the NCAA for that.

DragonFireKai
03-20-2008, 02:11 PM
I just said the Pac-10 because that's the league they are in.

And the NCAA was right. Williams and Clarrett both tried to break the rules and exposed the fact that both were lazy, me-first guys, that didn't really want to work for anything. I'm not blaming Carroll, Tressell, or the NCAA for that.


Clarrett was trying to dodge a suspension that everyone knew was coming down the pipes. Williams was simply taking advantage of a court ruling, and get to the NFL when his value was peaked, no different than anyone else who declares early. But Williams got shafted when the decision got overturned, and the NCAA decided to twist the knife.

Cashmoney
03-20-2008, 02:25 PM
dont say that.... we draft Harrell last year, and i have high hopes for him

I think Harrell can be a beast if he stays healthy. If there's one Position Tennessee is known for for churning out pro prospects it's DT.

etk
03-20-2008, 02:57 PM
UMia
Bust: Phillip Buchanon 02, Mike Rumph 02, Jerome McDougle 03, William Joseph 03
Not: Bryant McKinnie 02, Jeremy Shockey 02, Ed Reed 02, Andre Johnson 03, Willis McGahee 03, Sean Taylor 04, Kellen Winslow 04, Jon Vilma 04, DJ Williams 04, Vernon Carey 04, Vince Wilfork 04, Antrell Rolle 05, Kelly Jennings 06
Bust Ratio: 24%



PBuc is not a bust....when Ronde retires he'll be our #1 corner.

fenikz
03-20-2008, 03:10 PM
PBuc is not a bust....when Ronde retires he'll be our #1 corner.

ya definitely not, he has been on some bad teams but overall he has played well, averaging about 4 INTs per year i think

so that drops it down to about a 18% bust rate

BufFan71
03-20-2008, 03:40 PM
Injuries are an unfortunate part of the game, but you can be a bust even if you are a decent player. See Courntey Brown, Rashaan Salaam, Kijana Carter, Andy Katzenmoyer, Ernie Davis. Busts due to injuries happen all the time.

such a beast in college

roidrunner
03-20-2008, 04:10 PM
yea until he blazed his way out of the NFL. what a waste of talent. a pick i truely feel sorry for the bears ever making

Iamcanadian
03-20-2008, 06:50 PM
What's hilarious is that I got labeled as a USC Homer in another thread. Theoretically, any player who is still physically capable of playing could concievably turn it around. Theoretically.

I assume you're talking about Matt Leinart. Look at some of the other QBs drafted recently.

Alex Smith played better in 06 than Leinart has in either of his seasons, but one season later, and he's being thrown out.

Jason Campbell has played much better than Leinart, and there's talk about replacing him.

JP Losman got hit with injuries, but despite a good showing in 06, most people accept that he's going to be replaced, either by an incoming rookie or game managing specialist Trent Edwards.

Byron Leftwich was gone after 3.5 seasons

Kyle Boller played very close to how Leinart did, and got replaced after 2.5 seasons.

Rex Grossman got 1.5 seasons as a starter before being benched.

David Carr got 5 seasons, but the Texans we literally starting from scratch.

Joey Harrington got 4 seasons.

Patrick Ramsey got 1.5 seasons before they brought in Marc Brunell.

Drew Brees got three years before the chargers drafted Rivers.

Typically, you can tell within by the second season as a starter if a QB is going to be a servicable starter. Brees was the exception.

I suppose the Giants should have dumped Eli by your formula, It took Tony Romo 6 seasons, Anderson has been in the league 4 years, Schaub has been in the league 5 years, Garrard took 7 seasons, etc. etc. I don't know where you come up with 2 years determining a QB's fate. There is nothing theoretical about QB's taking quite some time to succeed.
Leinart, Campbell and Alex Smith are not done yet, I believe all 3 will start this coming season, heck even Alex Smith finally has a real shot to succeed at a high level. He was injured all of last year and Martz was hired to ensure he has a good shot this year to become a pretty good QB. Nobody is throwing these 3 QB's away just yet.
Losman doesn't fit Jauron's idea of a QB but could fit in well in another system.
Reggie Bush hasn't had great success yet as a runner but he is a great receiver and hardly a complete bust.
I have never ever seen anywhere that you can tell if a player is a bust after just 2 seasons. Drafts are seriously reviewed after 5 seasons to tell just how good a draft was. Look, only about 23% of 1st round rookies open the season as starters and it is a good 3 years before they reach a stage where you can be sure they've made it.

DragonFireKai
03-20-2008, 07:14 PM
I suppose the Giants should have dumped Eli by your formula, It took Tony Romo 6 seasons, Anderson has been in the league 4 years, Schaub has been in the league 5 years, Garrard took 7 seasons, etc. etc. I don't know where you come up with 2 years determining a QB's fate. There is nothing theoretical about QB's taking quite some time to succeed.
Leinart, Campbell and Alex Smith are not done yet, I believe all 3 will start this coming season, heck even Alex Smith finally has a real shot to succeed at a high level. He was injured all of last year and Martz was hired to ensure he has a good shot this year to become a pretty good QB. Nobody is throwing these 3 QB's away just yet.
Losman doesn't fit Jauron's idea of a QB but could fit in well in another system.
Reggie Bush hasn't had great success yet as a runner but he is a great receiver and hardly a complete bust.

Way to not read a thing I wrote, and set up a lovely little straw man.

In Eli's second season as a starter, he threw more TDs than INTs, and while he hasn't been great, he's been a servicable starter ever since.

Romo made the pro bowl in his first half season as a starter, Anderson did it in his first full season. Schaub got halfway through his first season as a starter, and showed much more production than Leinart has. Garrard still has less than two seasons worth of starts under his belt, but had a QB rating over 100 in his second season as a starter.

Judgement is based on demonstrated ability. All those players you named didn't have the chance to demonstrate anything their first few years, but once they showed their ability as a starter, they took off quickly.

Drew Brees aside, name one recent QB who flat out sucked for their first two seasons as a starter? For every one QB who showed no sign of development in their first few seasons and eventually broke through, I can name a dozen who failed.

Smith's been thrown under the bus by everyone on his team, up to the head coach. Leinart got benched in favor of a 38 year old Kurt Warner. Campbell is suffering from the same whisperings as Losman, Campbell's situation is in my opinion a bit unfair, but he's on a very fickle team, that took Patrick Ramsey in the first and discarded him in no time in favor of Campbell.

And as for Reggie Bush, ask yourself honestly, is he what the Saints thought they were getting?

Iamcanadian
03-20-2008, 07:56 PM
[QUOTE=DragonFireKai;961114]Way to not read a thing I wrote, and set up a lovely little straw man.

In Eli's second season as a starter, he threw more TDs than INTs, and while he hasn't been great, he's been a servicable starter ever since.

Romo made the pro bowl in his first half season as a starter, Anderson did it in his first full season. Schaub got halfway through his first season as a starter, and showed much more production than Leinart has. Garrard still has less than two seasons worth of starts under his belt, but had a QB rating over 100 in his second season as a starter.

Judgement is based on demonstrated ability. All those players you named didn't have the chance to demonstrate anything their first few years, but once they showed their ability as a starter, they took off quickly.

Excuse me but these QB's rode the bench for years learning their position. Nobody ever mistook them for sure fire starters when they entered the league.
An actual second year year player cannot be judged in the same way. If Leinart rides the bench next year, then you may be able to question his ability to succeed but after just 2 seasons, nobody can say with any certainty that he is a flop. You do know that you can learn a lot by sitting and studing.
Alex Smith was injured all of his 3rd season and just couldn't play through it though he tried. The team hasn't thrown him under the bus, they brought in Mike Martz, a QB guru to help him reach his potential.
I fully expect Leinart to win the starting QB position this coming season, I also expect Campbell to continue starting and I expect Losman will be traded to a team where he will most likely start. Nobody knows yet whether or not they will succeed or fail.
Your argument that these other QB's would have succeed immediately if they had been given the chance just isn't bore out by the facts. Most of them rode the bench because their HC's didn't think they could handle starting when they came into the league. Scouts and GM's drafted these guys later in the draft because they were definitely projects who would need a lot of work before even having an opportunity to start.
Your rush to judgment to prove a point is absurb. QB is the hardest position to adjust to when coming from college football and few do much before their 3rd season in the league, some take longer. In fact few draftees can be called truly successful before their 3rd year and I can give you plenty of examples of players who took longer.
Nobody ever judges a player a flop after just 2 seasons except casual fans who knows little about the realities of pro football.

DragonFireKai
03-20-2008, 08:21 PM
Excuse me but these QB's rode the bench for years learning their position. Nobody ever mistook them for sure fire starters when they entered the league.

That's because they weren't given the chance.

An actual second year year player cannot be judged in the same way. If Leinart rides the bench next year, then you may be able to question his ability to succeed but after just 2 seasons, nobody can say with any certainty that he is a flop. You do know that you can learn a lot by sitting and studing.

You'll know if the ability to learn is there. You don't learn how to go from being a backup calibur player to being a Pro Bowl Calibur player by riding the pine.

Alex Smith was injured all of his 3rd season and just couldn't play through it though he tried. The team hasn't thrown him under the bus, they brought in Mike Martz, a QB guru to help him reach his potential.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/11/15/SPLNTCBH1.DTL

"That's the first I heard of it. ... I think it'd be a good idea if he said it to me first. Everybody is sore. I'm sore. Has that affected my performance? Maybe, but I'm not going to talk about it. A lot of guys are sore."

Smith turned around and accused Nolan of "Undermining" his authority in the locker room. Several players came out and accused Smith of making his injury out to be worse than it was. Smith's reputation is fried.

I fully expect Leinart to win the starting QB position this coming season, I also expect Campbell to continue starting and I expect Losman will be traded to a team where he will most likely start. Nobody knows yet whether or not they will succeed or fail.

Of those, Campbell is the only one who seems salvagable to me, but Washington's FO is comprised of a bunch of monkeys and Dan Snyder, so logic isn't a great strength of that franchise.

Your argument that these other QB's would have succeed immediately if they had been given the chance just isn't bore out by the facts. Most of them rode the bench because their HC's didn't think they could handle starting when they came into the league. Scouts and GM's drafted these guys later in the draft because they were definitely projects who would need a lot of work before even having an opportunity to start.
Your rush to judgment to prove a point is absurb. QB is the hardest position to adjust to when coming from college football and few do much before their 3rd season in the league, some take longer. In fact few draftees can be called truly successful before their 3rd year and I can give you plenty of examples of players who took longer.
Nobody ever judges a player a flop after just 2 seasons except casual fans who knows little about the realities of pro football.

Once again, name a few QBs who failed to perform at a servicable level within two years of becoming the starter and went on to have a good career. Then I'll name 12 who didn't for each one you can name.

scottyboy
03-20-2008, 08:28 PM
Rutgers has an outstanding bust rate of 0%!!!! BALLIN'

past 5 years guys picked in top 2 rounds:

Super sweet amazingly godly studs: Brian Leonard
Busts: none

Iamcanadian
03-20-2008, 09:06 PM
Once again, name a few QBs who failed to perform at a servicable level within two years of becoming the starter and went on to have a good career. Then I'll name 12 who didn't for each one you can name.

Well, your talking about 80% of the starting QB who ever played the game. Most broke out in their 3rd or 4th season but up until that point they all looked pretty mediocre. Of course, you want to say that their mediocrity indicated success to you, like Eli of the Giants, but to most observers only a very few ever approached being servicable QB's by their 2nd year. Even a lot of HOF QB's weren't a heck of a lot by year 2, yes some were very noticable as quick learners and everybody could see they would be great but the vast majority of QB's weren't so easily spotted as serviceable in their second season starting.
I love the way you call flops servicable when it suits your need and can see into every organization and know what they think about a prospect.
You just know that San Fran has given up on Smith and Washington only continues to start Campbell because they are run by a bunch of idiots. That's why San Fran hired Martz a QB guru and haven't made any attempt to improve their QB position and cut Dilfer, their starter from last year. Yeah, it sure looks like they have just given up on Smith. And of course, your right, Campbell who was hand picked by Gibbs, a HOF HC only is around because of the idiots who run the show in Washington, Gibbs hasn't a clue about talent.
It is pretty hard to argue with a person who redefines servicable every time his definition is challenged and actually thinks he's proven something.
Yes, if only Tony Romo had started in his rookie year, he'd have been a success by your definition and servicable in year 2. What a waste, having him ride the bench for 5 years, of course Bill Parcells wasn't completely sure if Romo was ready in his 5th season to start but what does Bill Parcells know? You on the other hand know everything, I'm sure Bill Parcells and Joe Gibbs would take your argument to heart, however, my guess is that they would role over laughing at your ridiculous argument and just walk away at such foolishness.

bearsfan_51
03-21-2008, 12:03 AM
Rutgers has an outstanding bust rate of 0%!!!! BALLIN'

past 5 years guys picked in top 2 rounds:

Super sweet amazingly godly studs: Brian Leonard
Busts: none
That's some killer analysis Scotty. Ray Rice has a 100% chance of succeeding based on that.

nobodyinparticular
03-21-2008, 12:40 AM
Kai, I whole-heartedly disagree with your assessment that Ben Watson is not a bust. He was taken early in the 1st round and never has actually put a good season together. He has speed, but doesn't seem to be able to find a way to get open well. And when Brady throws to him, he often drops the ball.

BaLLiN
03-21-2008, 01:08 AM
Rutgers has an outstanding bust rate of 0%!!!! BALLIN'

past 5 years guys picked in top 2 rounds:

Super sweet amazingly godly studs: Brian Leonard
Busts: none

you called?

Miami is definately if not the best, really up there. Merriweather looked really good IMO, Beason was a beast, two really good players last year.

DragonFireKai
03-21-2008, 04:50 AM
Jeez, wall of text.

Well, your talking about 80% of the starting QB who ever played the game. Most broke out in their 3rd or 4th season but up until that point they all looked pretty mediocre. Of course, you want to say that their mediocrity indicated success to you, like Eli of the Giants, but to most observers only a very few ever approached being servicable QB's by their 2nd year.

Let's look at the state that the successful Starting QBs were in during their 1st two years starting 10 games or more.

Tom Brady: threw more TDs than Ints and completed over 60% of his passes his first year starting, and looked better ever since.

Chad Pennington: 22 TDs to 6 INTs in his first year starting, and a 68% completion percentage.

Trent Green: threw 23 TDs to 11 Ints in his first season starting.

Ben Roethlisberger: ORoY year 1, Super Bowl year 2. QB rating in the 90's both seasons.

Derek Anderson: 29 TDs to 19 Ints first season starting, Pro Bowl appearance.

Carson Palmer: 32 TDs to 12 Ints 2nd year starting, pro bowl appearance.

Steve McNair: 15 Tds to 10 Ints, 4 rushing TDs in second season starting.

Peyton Manning: 26 TDs to 15 Ints in 2nd year starting, Pro Bowl apearance.

David Garrard: 18 TDs to 3 Ints in 2nd year starting, 102.2 QB rating.

Vince Young: ORoY and Pro Bowl in First season starting.

Phillip Rivers: 22 TDs to 9 Ints in first season starting.

Jay Cutler: 20 TDs to 14 Ints in first season starting.

Tony Romo: 19 TDs to 13 Ints and a pro bowl appearance in First Season starting.

Eli Manning: 24 TDs to 17 Ints in first season starting.

Donovan McNabb: 21 Tds to 13 Ints, second in MVP voting in first year starting.

Brett Favre: 18 TDs to 13 Ints and 64% completion in first year starting.

Jeff Garcia: 31 TDs to 10 Ints and pro bowl appearance in 2nd season starting.

Drew Brees: Threw 17 TDs to 16 Ints, over 60% completion first year starting. was marginal enough that the Chargers spent a top 5 pick to replace him in 04.

Jake Delhomme: 19 TDs to 16 Ints in first season starting.

Matt Hasselbeck: 15 TDs to 10 Ints, 63% completion, in 2nd season starting.

Kurt Warner: 41 TDs to 13 Ints, Pro Bowl, MVP, in first season starting.

Marc Bulger: 22 TDs, 63% completion, Pro Bowl in first season as a starter.

Daunte Culpepper: 33 TDs to 16 Ints, Pro Bowl appearance in first season as starter.

Did I miss anyone?

Even a lot of HOF QB's weren't a heck of a lot by year 2, yes some were very noticable as quick learners and everybody could see they would be great but the vast majority of QB's weren't so easily spotted as serviceable in their second season starting.

Troy Aikman: didn't emerge until year 3 as a starter.

Sammy Baugh: All Pro rookie season.

Terry Bradshaw: took the Steelers to the conference championship in 2nd year starting.

John Elway: 18 TDs to 15 Ints and playoff berth in second season.

Jim Finks: Pro Bowl first season starting.

Dan Fouts: suffered a lot of injuries and didn't emerge until 3rd full year starting.

Otto Graham: all pro in first season.

Bob Griese: Pro Bowl in first Season.

Sonny Jurgenson: All Pro, Pro Bowl, 32 TDs in first season starting.

Jim Kelly: Absurd career in USFL, Pro Bowl in second season starting in NFL.

Sid Luckman: All Pro, Pro Bowl in first season starting.

Dan Marino: All Pro, Pro Bowl as a rookie.

Joe Montana: All Pro, Pro Bowl in first season starting.

Warren Moon: Absurd CFL career, but didn't adjust well until 4th season in NFL.

Joe Namath: Pro Bowl rookie season.

Bart Starr: came in just under the 10 start cut line in a few early season. By that criteria, he was All Pro and Pro Bowl in his second season starting, but it was really his third season worth of games.

Roger Staubach: All Pro, Pro Bowl in first season starting.

Fran Tarkenton: More TDs than Ints in rookie year.

Johnny Unitas: Pro Bowl, All Pro, First Season starting.

Norm Van Brocklin: Pro Bowl first season starting.

Bob Waterfield: All Pro in Rookie year.

Steve Young: Good Career in USFL, one season starting in Tampa, next season starting was in San Francisco with a QB rating of 101.

I love the way you call flops servicable when it suits your need and can see into every organization and know what they think about a prospect.
You just know that San Fran has given up on Smith

There are news articles where their head coach and other players throw Smith under the bus.

and Washington only continues to start Campbell because they are run by a bunch of idiots.

No, if you actually read anything I said, you'd note that I think that Campbell has been showing promise and is getting a raw deal in having to deal with QBs of the moment. Very similar to how Patrick Ramsey got run out.

That's why San Fran hired Martz a QB guru and haven't made any attempt to improve their QB position and cut Dilfer, their starter from last year.

They hired Martz because of their commitment to playing offense, not to a particular QB. Smith is walking into an open competition with Shaun King. Hardly the annointment of a former first round pick.

And of course, your right, Campbell who was hand picked by Gibbs, a HOF HC only is around because of the idiots who run the show in

A hall of fame head coach, who the moment he retired again, the owner canned every coach who was remotely atatched to him.

It is pretty hard to argue with a person who redefines servicable every time his definition is challenged and actually thinks he's proven something.

Where have I redefined anything? All I ask for a modern QB to be servicable is to throw more TDs than Ints and over 50% completion. I make an exception for Vince Young, due to his unique skill set.

Yes, if only Tony Romo had started in his rookie year, he'd have been a success by your definition and servicable in year 2. What a waste, having him ride the bench for 5 years, of course Bill Parcells wasn't completely sure if Romo was ready in his 5th season to start but what does Bill Parcells know?

Considering that Parcells was still retired in 02 when Romo came out, I don't think he really knew a whole lot about him. But you've once again completely ignored everything I've said in favor of your straw man argument. The true test of a player is on the playing field, not the practice field. There are preconceptions built around established players and flashier prospects, they get the first chance to prove themselves. Undrafted FAs like Romo are the bottom of the totem pole. They don't get a chance unless everyone above them have proven themselves untennable.

You on the other hand know everything, I'm sure Bill Parcells and Joe Gibbs would take your argument to heart, however, my guess is that they would role over laughing at your ridiculous argument and just walk away at such foolishness.

It's Ironic that you bring up Joe Gibbs and Bill Parcells, both of whom are notorious for dropping their QB at the first sign of weakness. Parcells went through 4 starting QBs in 4 years in Dallas, 3 Starting QBs in 3 years with the Jets. And Gibbs, who went through 7 starting QBs in 16 years with the Redskins, or a QB every 2.2 years.

Kai, I whole-heartedly disagree with your assessment that Ben Watson is not a bust. He was taken early in the 1st round and never has actually put a good season together. He has speed, but doesn't seem to be able to find a way to get open well. And when Brady throws to him, he often drops the ball.

Really? Early in the First round? Exactly how early?

I mean, jeez, he was only 6th among tight ends in TDs this season, despite having Moss Soak up all the TDs. In 06, when he wasn't having to fight Welker, Moss, and Stallworth for catches, he was top ten among TEs in Recieving Yards. Oh, and he caught 73% of passes thrown to him this season. Compare that to Antonio Gates (64%), Jason Whitten (68%), or Tony Gonzalez (64%). Obviously a waste of a pick. It's a wonder he's still in the league.

you called?

Miami is definately if not the best, really up there. Merriweather looked really good IMO, Beason was a beast, two really good players last year.

What makes the U scary isn't the success rate. That's not significantly better than most other makor schools. What's scary is that they've got a slightly better success rate, despite pumping far more prospects.

Iamcanadian
03-21-2008, 09:51 AM
Well, I thought I'd go over the stats of some the QB's you mentioned to see if your list is correct. I started with Chad Pennington QB, New York Jets and these are his 2nd year stats.

2001 New York Jets 2 0 10 20 50.0 92 4.6 1 0 1 8 79.6 1 11 11.0 0 -- --

Now there's a sure sign that success lay just around the corner.

He broke out in his 3rd season. But I have to remember your theory rests on why QB's didn't do it right away and had to ride the pine until their HC's thought they were ready. Your argument that they would have done fine if only they had been allowed to start is rather bogus as I'll take a HC's opinion over yours every day of the week.
Your argument that a QB like Tony Romo rode the bench because his HC had no faith in his ability to produce and would have done great if they had only allowed him to start, has absolutely no merit. It is just plain supposition on your part. You are asking people to believe you knew what was best for their QB's and they didn't have a clue. Excuse me if I find that argument insulting to everybody's intelligence.
As for Alex Smith, your telling me you really believe that San Fran intends to go with Shaun King as their starting QB next season and that is why they cut Dilfer, again excuse me if I find that quite ridiculous. WOW, Smith must be shaking in his boots worrying that King will beat him out.

"Considering that Parcells was still retired in 02 when Romo came out, I don't think he really knew a whole lot about him. But you've once again completely ignored everything I've said in favor of your straw man argument. The true test of a player is on the playing field, not the practice field. There are preconceptions built around established players and flashier prospects, they get the first chance to prove themselves. Undrafted FAs like Romo are the bottom of the totem pole. They don't get a chance unless everyone above them have proven themselves untennable."

Again your assertion that players ride the bench no matter how talented they appear to be because the HC is going to give high draft picks the job even if they cannot do it, is rather absurd. I guess that means that undrafted FA's have no chance to make an impression, oh, wait, close to 25% of players in the NFL were UDFA's, now how could that happen in your system.
I guess your right, NFL HC's cannot see talent and are determined to start higher draft picks over lessor guys. Talent never comes into the equation for them. They are all deaf, dumb and blind.
Tell me, how can you really believe that a NFL HC cannot spot talent but is led by his nose to accept preconceptions built around established players and flashier prospects. Have you ever coached??? HC's don't care where a player is drafted, once the draft is over and they all go to training camp, everybody in at least successful organizations, is on an equal footing and wins or loses his job based on his ability to get the job done. Preconceptions and flashier prospects are food for fans who have no clue what it is like in a training camp.
This argument is becoming rather a big waste of my time. Hard to have any kind of a discussion with someone who bases his theories on suppositions and clique's and thinks he knows more than NFL HC's about talent.

nobodyinparticular
03-21-2008, 10:52 AM
Really? Early in the First round? Exactly how early?

I mean, jeez, he was only 6th among tight ends in TDs this season, despite having Moss Soak up all the TDs. In 06, when he wasn't having to fight Welker, Moss, and Stallworth for catches, he was top ten among TEs in Recieving Yards. Oh, and he caught 73% of passes thrown to him this season. Compare that to Antonio Gates (64%), Jason Whitten (68%), or Tony Gonzalez (64%). Obviously a waste of a pick. It's a wonder he's still in the league.

My bad, #32 overall. And yet he has once gotten over 600 yards and this past year in such a wide open offense had a stellar 389 yards. Over 4 years, he has 1489 yards--a yearly average of 372 yards. That's pretty awesome...

No, that's a flatout bust for a 1st round pick.

DragonFireKai
03-21-2008, 03:04 PM
Well, I thought I'd go over the stats of some the QB's you mentioned to see if your list is correct. I started with Chad Pennington QB, New York Jets and these are his 2nd year stats.

2001 New York Jets 2 0 10 20 50.0 92 4.6 1 0 1 8 79.6 1 11 11.0 0 -- --

Now there's a sure sign that success lay just around the corner.

He broke out in his 3rd season.

Once again, check what I said, he broke out in his first year starting. He started 0 games in 2001. I don't know why you're having such a hard time making the distinction.

But I have to remember your theory rests on why QB's didn't do it right away and had to ride the pine until their HC's thought they were ready. Your argument that they would have done fine if only they had been allowed to start is rather bogus as I'll take a HC's opinion over yours every day of the week.
Your argument that a QB like Tony Romo rode the bench because his HC had no faith in his ability to produce and would have done great if they had only allowed him to start, has absolutely no merit. It is just plain supposition on your part. You are asking people to believe you knew what was best for their QB's and they didn't have a clue. Excuse me if I find that argument insulting to everybody's intelligence.

So, since you can't find anything that disproves what I'm saying, you resto simply insulting me.

As for Alex Smith, your telling me you really believe that San Fran intends to go with Shaun King as their starting QB next season and that is why they cut Dilfer, again excuse me if I find that quite ridiculous. WOW, Smith must be shaking in his boots worrying that King will beat him out.

"Considering that Parcells was still retired in 02 when Romo came out, I don't think he really knew a whole lot about him. But you've once again completely ignored everything I've said in favor of your straw man argument. The true test of a player is on the playing field, not the practice field. There are preconceptions built around established players and flashier prospects, they get the first chance to prove themselves. Undrafted FAs like Romo are the bottom of the totem pole. They don't get a chance unless everyone above them have proven themselves untennable."

Again your assertion that players ride the bench no matter how talented they appear to be because the HC is going to give high draft picks the job even if they cannot do it, is rather absurd. I guess that means that undrafted FA's have no chance to make an impression, oh, wait, close to 25% of players in the NFL were UDFA's, now how could that happen in your system.

As for UFAs, that 25% figure is inflated by special teams players and fullbacks, were you can get a good starter without using a draft pick. At QB, there were 64 QBs to start a game last season, and 12 were not drafted. that's only 18%, and that number drops if you take out the guys like Matt Moore and Brock Berlin who were their team's 4th option at QB.

I guess your right, NFL HC's cannot see talent and are determined to start higher draft picks over lessor guys. Talent never comes into the equation for them. They are all deaf, dumb and blind.
Tell me, how can you really believe that a NFL HC cannot spot talent but is led by his nose to accept preconceptions built around established players and flashier prospects. Have you ever coached??? HC's don't care where a player is drafted, once the draft is over and they all go to training camp, everybody in at least successful organizations, is on an equal footing and wins or loses his job based on his ability to get the job done. Preconceptions and flashier prospects are food for fans who have no clue what it is like in a training camp.
This argument is becoming rather a big waste of my time. Hard to have any kind of a discussion with someone who bases his theories on suppositions and clique's and thinks he knows more than NFL HC's about talent.

Don't believe me? Ask Doug Flutie. He blasted NFL coaches in an ESPN interview after he went to New England. He explicitly stated that there was a modus operandi pervading the league that the higher payed player should start. And there's a basis for that. The contract a player signs represents an investment in him, and teams don't want to waste their investments. That's why every QB drafted in the 1st round eventually gets a chance to start for the team that drafted them.

And how am I basing my argument on cliques? Do you even know what that means?

My bad, #32 overall. And yet he has once gotten over 600 yards and this past year in such a wide open offense had a stellar 389 yards. Over 4 years, he has 1489 yards--a yearly average of 372 yards. That's pretty awesome...

No, that's a flatout bust for a 1st round pick.

Way to skew the stats. Watson spent just about his entire rookie season on IR. In the 3 seasons that he's actually seen decent playing time, he's averaged 491 yards and 4 TDs. Let's compare that to other 1st round TEs with at least three years in the league since 2000.

Ben Watson: 491 yards, 4 TDs
Heath Miller: 472 yards, 6 TDs
Dallas Clark: 446 yards, 5 TDs
Jeremy Shockey: 704 yards, 4 TDs
Daniel Graham: 273 yards, 3 TDs
Jerramy Stevens: 275 yards, 3 TDs
Todd Heap: 557 yards, 4 TDs
Bubba Franks: 288 yards, 4 TDs
Anthony Becht: 176 yards, 2 TDs

So what are you expecting from first round tight ends? Your expectations are unreasonable if you think that Watson's a bust.

SpottedCow
03-21-2008, 04:07 PM
Another thread to drum up discussion.

This is something that's reeeaaaally been on my mind. Namely big schools that are delivering big duds in terms of prospects.

Maybe culprit numero uno is Southern Cal. Look at all the prospects from the school who don't do anything versus the ones who actually do. It's a bundle versus a handful, seems like. And I think it continues this year, I don't think Fred Davis works as well in the pros as he did his senior year in college. Sed Ellis will, Keith Rivers ... eh, probably does. Terrell Thomas? Lawrence Jackson?

Another school - Oklahoma. What was the last prospect they delivered that actually lived up to their promise, nevermind didn't suck? Adrian Peterson who is amazing but we knew that since he graced their campus, and Tommie Harris in 2004 was probably the one before that. Wow, I hope I'm missing someone, because that's awful otherwise.

Who was the last nameworthy Georgia Bulldogs player? Richard Seymour? Reggie Brown is playing in the league and all, but come on. Tim Jennings is doing alright with the Colts, I suppose.

What's going on with these "football factories" producing disappointment after disappointment? Meanwhile some other schools like Ohio State, LSU, Michigan, and even Texas despite bad coaching (!) are churning out pros like they should. Thank goodness Nick Saban is back.

Is Florida under Urban Meyer the next culprit? Another school you've got in mind? Are you like I am, especially leery of another Trojans player because of the great bust rate they've shown for themselves in prospects the last half-dozen years or so?

Chime in.

I think you are right. Some of these schools aren't doing what they used to. Remember when Miami had 5+ first round picks and they'd send 10 to NFL camps. They have really come down to earth in recent years. And remember FLorida State. They haven't produced crap into the NFL the last few years.

DragonFireKai
03-21-2008, 04:20 PM
I think you are right. Some of these schools aren't doing what they used to. Remember when Miami had 5+ first round picks and they'd send 10 to NFL camps. They have really come down to earth in recent years. And remember FLorida State. They haven't produced crap into the NFL the last few years.

Florida State's been producing plenty.

Let's look at them.

FSU:
Bust: Travis johnson 05
Not: Ernie Sims 06, Kamerion Wimbly 06, Broderick Bunkley 06, Antonio Cromarte 06, Alex Barron 05, Javon Walker 02.

nobodyinparticular
03-21-2008, 06:42 PM
Way to skew the stats. Watson spent just about his entire rookie season on IR. In the 3 seasons that he's actually seen decent playing time, he's averaged 491 yards and 4 TDs. Let's compare that to other 1st round TEs with at least three years in the league since 2000.

Ben Watson: 491 yards, 4 TDs
Heath Miller: 472 yards, 6 TDs
Dallas Clark: 446 yards, 5 TDs
Jeremy Shockey: 704 yards, 4 TDs
Daniel Graham: 273 yards, 3 TDs
Jerramy Stevens: 275 yards, 3 TDs
Todd Heap: 557 yards, 4 TDs
Bubba Franks: 288 yards, 4 TDs
Anthony Becht: 176 yards, 2 TDs

So what are you expecting from first round tight ends? Your expectations are unreasonable if you think that Watson's a bust.

Now wait a second... David Pollack is a bust because of his lack of performance due to injury, right? Therefore we have to factor in Watson's injury season. You can't have it both ways.

I see a total of 4 busts on that list--Graham, Stevens, Franks and Becht--full-bore busts. Heap had his first season cut short by injury too. If you look at his true numbers in his second and third years in the league, he had over 830 and nearly 700 yards. Look who's skewing the stats now.

That leaves Dallas Clark, Heath Miller and Jeremy Shockey. As you can see Shockey has clearly out played Watson so leaving only Clark and Miller to address. Miller plays in an offense ridiculously shifted toward the run game and apart from that, the jury is still out on whether or not he actually is a good TE. And Dallas Clark... solid and unspectacular. Is that what you want out of a first round pick? Last year Ben Watson ranked #23 among all TEs in receptions and #22 in yards--behind players like Greg Olsen, Marcedes Lewis and Zach Miller. He was #11 in yards in 2006 and #23 in 2005 again.

That's hardly the expected production out of a 1st round draft pick, is it? If you take a 1st round pick, do you want 20+ players to be better than him?

nobodyinparticular
03-21-2008, 07:00 PM
wait, who cares about any of this. did i see someone suggest george foster was anything but a massive, worthless bust? said person should probably visit a doctor or perhaps watch football before speaking of it.

Well njx, I couldn't have said it better myself.

BigJohn98
03-21-2008, 08:02 PM
I think you are right. Some of these schools aren't doing what they used to. Remember when Miami had 5+ first round picks and they'd send 10 to NFL camps. They have really come down to earth in recent years. And remember FLorida State. They haven't produced crap into the NFL the last few years.

Really? Besides Travis Johnson, name someone who hasn't done anything.

DragonFireKai
03-21-2008, 08:32 PM
Now wait a second... David Pollack is a bust because of his lack of performance due to injury, right? Therefore we have to factor in Watson's injury season. You can't have it both ways.

Taking away Watson's one season due to injury is simply removing an outlier. David Pollack's entire career was lost to injury. When Watson is healthy, which has been the rest of his career thus far, his performance is in line with Heath Miller and Dallas Clark. Even if you don't consider Pollack's injured seasons, and look at him as a rookie coming into the league, he has about as much potential as Stephen Hawking. It's not that the Bengals spent their pick on someone who got hurt, it's that they spent their pick on someone who can't play.

I see a total of 4 busts on that list--Graham, Stevens, Franks and Becht--full-bore busts.

So three pro bowls makes Franks a bust? That's proof positive that your standards are unreasonable. You're the only person I know who'd be dissapointed to get a multiple pro bowler with your first round pick.

Heap had his first season cut short by injury too. If you look at his true numbers in his second and third years in the league, he had over 830 and nearly 700 yards. Look who's skewing the stats now.

Heap played in 12 of the games his rookie season. Watson played in 1. Getting injured in the first half of the first game, you might as well have not have even played that season. there's a big difference. But if it makes you happy, we could do it on a per 16 game basis.

That puts Heap at 708 yards and 5 TDs, it also pushes Watson's numbers to 581 yards and 5 TDs.

That leaves Dallas Clark, Heath Miller and Jeremy Shockey. As you can see Shockey has clearly out played Watson so leaving only Clark and Miller to address. Miller plays in an offense ridiculously shifted toward the run game and apart from that, the jury is still out on whether or not he actually is a good TE. And Dallas Clark... solid and unspectacular. Is that what you want out of a first round pick? Last year Ben Watson ranked #23 among all TEs in receptions and #22 in yards--behind players like Greg Olsen, Marcedes Lewis and Zach Miller. He was #11 in yards in 2006 and #23 in 2005 again.

Behind players like Greg Olsen and Marcedes Lewis, two other first round picks, and Zach Miller, who was drafted 6 picks later?

That's hardly the expected production out of a 1st round draft pick, is it? If you take a 1st round pick, do you want 20+ players to be better than him?

You don't seem to understand the difference between what you wish for, and what you expect from a first round pick. You want every player you pick to be the best in the league, but your expectations need to be more realistic, especially with a late first rounder. You want a solid starter. And if you look at a 5 year window, and realize that you've got the 3rd best tight end taken in the first round during that time, then you're doing pretty well. The Patriots aren't looking to replace him, just like the Colts aren't looking to replace Clark, and the Steelers aren't hunting for Miller's replacement. 400-500 yards and 4-6 TDs is about par for the course for a team that doesn't make the Tight End the focal point of it's offense.

iloxygenil
03-21-2008, 09:01 PM
I don't think it's fair to call Pollack a bust since he was hurt. But the last few years there hasn't been a lot of big time prospects for UGA, but that should change in the next few years. Matthew Stafford, Knowshon Moreno, Trinton Sturdivant, Rashard Jones, Geno Atikns, and Asher Allen and a few more have 1st round potential.

I see what you're saying, he's not a BUST, but he is a busted pick...I mean injuries bite everyone, just really hampered that poor kid. I didn't want the Falcons to draft him, but there were a lot of Falcon fans who did, and I thought he had good potential to be a consistent performer for a team, maybe not a super stud, but a good solid contributor. Sad that he got attack by a swarm of injury bugs...

Bearsfan123
03-21-2008, 11:07 PM
The big problem with 1st rd qbs is that they get thrown into the fire to quickly. The time table SHOULD read 1-3 years-sit on bench and learn with some playing time thrown in 4-5- start and progress to starter levels 6+- Productive to franchise starter. Thats my opinion anyway. By this thought process Kyle Orton has a good chance to become a solid starter

MidwayMonster31
03-22-2008, 12:46 AM
Although it is unfair to call someone a bust because of injury. The bottom-line is they didn't give the production that was expected of the pick. It is unfair, but it is reality. Look at the Vikings with their defensive ends, James has had knee problems and Udeze hopefully beats leukemia, but the Vikings still need defensive ends.

nobodyinparticular
03-22-2008, 01:15 PM
Although it is unfair to call someone a bust because of injury. The bottom-line is they didn't give the production that was expected of the pick. It is unfair, but it is reality. Look at the Vikings with their defensive ends, James has had knee problems and Udeze hopefully beats leukemia, but the Vikings still need defensive ends.

True you aren't getting the kind of production you want from these 1st rounders. But in this context it doesn't really apply to call them busts due to injury. Georgia's football program had very little to do with David Pollack's career threatening neck injury. And USC's program had very little to do with Kenechi Udeze developing leukemia. And Wisconson had little to do with James' knee problems.

For these purposes, we are critiquing whether or not the "football factories" are failing to develop good players like they are expected to do. These types of injuries have absolutely no reflection on said schools' ability to develop the corresponding players.

MidwayMonster31
03-22-2008, 01:24 PM
I agree. You can't blame the program for a player getting hurt.

JagHombre22
03-22-2008, 01:26 PM
well...Clint Ingram from Oklahoma has been a two year starter and has probably lived up past his third round expectation...

but that's just me throwing Jags players out there...lol