PDA

View Full Version : My Take on the #1 Pick


thebow305
04-02-2008, 12:24 AM
WARNING: LONG POST! :)

Look as this logic everyone and see if you either agree and just see the angle I am coming from.

These past two days from the Owners' Meeting have answered almost all questions for the #1 pick, IMO. Today, Sparano really cleared things up. At least for me anyway. He denounced just about every prospect except Vernon Gholston and Chris Long.

McFadden is out: Sparano mentioned today how he would like to get Lorenzo Booker on the field more and find more plays to utilize him as a player. He mentioned that he feels confident that Ronnie will be back in time and ready for camp. He also said that having to find carries for Ricky and Ronnie both this season is a good problem to have.

Glenn Dorsey is out: Well they finally did it! The FO has announced that we will be running a full-fledged 3-4 this season on defense. If that alone doesn't exclude Dorsey from our plans. This probably does: Sparano named the likely starters for next season as Roth at DE, Ferguson at NT, and Holiday at the other End. He also mentioned that new FA pickup Randy Starks has the ability to play all positions on that line and will be the primary backup for all three. Not to mention our up and coming youngsters Rodrique Wright and Paul Soliai. So whichever position, E or NT you were thinking Dorsey might fit at, he won't, at least not for us anyway!

Matt Ryan is out: This is what I feel really good about, as a big John Beck Supporter. Sparano has talked in length the past two days about how impressed he is with Beck as a worker and the progression he is making as a player. He also mentioned how he sees him as a part of the Future nucleus of this team along with Ronnie and Teddy Ginn. Just to add to it, he mentioned that having a young QB in the league getting ready to start is something very hard to do. Beck has SOME experience in the NFL, Ryan has NONE. From that perspective, Ryan will have to go through more of a progression when he enters the league. There are not many young QB's that come in and are ready to contribute right away. This will not be any different for Mr. Ryan. It just seems to me that they are already having to do this with Beck, why would they want to take another young QB at #1 and have to do this with him as well. It seems like this FO wants to win sooner rather than later and Beck gives them the slight edge in that department, IMO.

Jake Long is out: It has been talked about on here that Ireland does not believe in drafting based on need early on in the draft. OT seems to be our biggest need in this draft, and if Ireland goes based on BPA, Jake is certainly not that, especially because he will never be an ELITE Left Tackle in the NFL based on the perspective of many NFL draft experts. And if he is a RT for sure, then the value is certainly not there with the #1 overall pick. I don't know of many NFL Teams who would put the ultimate premium of the #1 pick in the draft on a Right Tackle. (Unless we had a Lefty QB, of course. But we don't!) All of this speculation alone should put the Jake Long to Miami supporters to rest. But that was before Sparano dropped the "bombshell" today that Vernon Carey will remain out starting LEFT TACKLE next season. The common fan would look at this and not think much of it. Not us. Not the same Miami Dolphins that are fluttering helplessly day in and day out for answers, any slight hints as to what we will do with the all important Number One overall pick. Well, Sparano gave it today! Sort of. It won't be Jake Long at least. If Carey is our for sure LT heading into next season, no questions asked, then Jake Long would be our RT, if drafted #1. And that my friends, simply wil not happen. Especially when our New VP of football operations, Mr. Bill Parcells does not put a premium on drafting OT's early on in the draft. ESPECIALLY RIGHT TACKLES! Most of time, his philosophy is that you can find quality ones later on in the draft that can help out significantly, and that is certainly the case with a RT, as there are some very quality ones in the 2nd-4th round range this year. Guys such as Gosder Cherilus, Sam Baker, Carl Nicks, Anthony Collins, King Dunlap, Duane Brown, Barry Richardson, etc. are all ones that come to mind as very possible, cheaper solutions at RT. And trust me, the "Big Tuna" knows this, which is why he won't waste the #1 pick on Jake Long, who could be better than all of those guys at RT, maybe or maybe not, but certainly not at the price of what the # 1 pick will garner. Like it or not, it's the truth!

Now it comes to to the other Long, Chris, and The Hul....I mean Vernon Gholston. My logic says that if Jason Taylor is not dealt at all, Vernon Gholston is the pick for sure. The reason being, at the risk of contradicting myself and my previous argument against Ryan, is the immediate impact standpoint. With JT as one of the greatest mentors of all time at the same position, it could help Gholston to learn the nuances of the position early on. He may have to sit for the first few games, or be a situational pass rusher to start the season off. Most people would cringe at this idea. But my reasoning is that, in time, and with the right coaching or leadership, Gholston WILL be a better Pro than Chris Long. That is a HUGE IF though. He has all the potential in the world and I see him as having a Joey Porter-like impact on the league, from Joey's dominant days in Pittsburgh. The comparison stems from Porter's below average coverage abilities for the majority of his career, and his superior pass rushing abilities. I see the same attributes for Gholston and how his career will pan out. Funny I mention Porter though because that is who Gholston would likely replace at OLB later into the season if he was the pick. Let's get one thing straight, our #1 pick will contribute early and often, he will not be brought in to sit on the bench, not for long anyway. That being the case, VG would likely finish out the season opposite JT at OLB, with Porter switching roles with VG as the situational pass rusher (If you ask me, that's what he is better suited for anyway at this point of his career), or possibly Porter even kicking inside to finish out the season. Many of you cringe at this idea as well, but for as bad as Porter is in coverage or how bad of a fit many of you think he would be at ILB, I have a hard time believing he won't be better there than Reggie Torbor, Charlie Anderson, or even his possible inside mate Channing Crowder. As well, it would give Pasqualoni a better 2nd option than than he had in Dallas with Akin Ayodele, who Porter is certainly better than as well. This scenario would allow us to get our Biggest, most physically dominant LB's on the field at one time and could give us possibly the best Defensive, pass rushing Front in the league. We would not have a starting LB under 245 pounds; Possible Lineup and weights: OLB Vernon Gholston: 266 lbs, ILB Joey Porter: 250 lbs, ILB Channing Crowder: 245 lbs, OLB: Jason Taylor: 255 lbs.... And that's just how Parcells likes it!

Now, if we do trade Jason Taylor, my focus turns dramatically, as I feel Chris Long would be the pick almost certainly. This is because we will need a guy who is NFL-ready, we will need the guy who is the most complete player right now and who is ready to step in Day One as our starting OLB to replace the departed Taylor. That player would be Chris Long. Chris Long will be ready to play Week One, Gholston most likely will not, simple as that. Leadership is also a main cause for concern with the #1 pick. This is certainly the case for us, especially if JT is dealt. One of the main things that a team will look for with a high draft pick, especially #1 overall, is the ability for that player to take control of his team and be the face of the franchise for the next 10 years or so. And for a team such as ourselves, in the same offseason where we would be losing our two only team leaders and faces of our franchise for the last decade in Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor, this factor would become all that much more important and vital to our team. Chris Long would be the face of our franchise for a long time, I have no doubt about that. He is THAT player and would help ease the loss of JT and ZT in a big way, which is why he is my favorite to be the pick in this scenario. Vernon Gholston could also very well be the pick in this scenario as well, but Long is the favorite here, as is VG in the other.

For the last time, it will be either Chris Long or Vernon Gholston on April 26th, if we keep the #1 pick. So take your pick!

Mine is Gholston. But you already knew that I'm sure.

JagHombre22
04-02-2008, 12:26 AM
that's good analysis...but I still think it's all up in the air...

Paranoidmoonduck
04-02-2008, 12:32 AM
Of course, anything said this time of year, especially at the owner meetings, should be taken with a grain of salt.

If one were to take to heart the comments that Lane Kiffin made yesterday, McFadden isn't even a remote possibility for Oakland.

Flyboy
04-02-2008, 12:32 AM
If one were to take to heart the comments that Lane Kiffin made yesterday, McFadden isn't even a remote possibility for Oakland.

ORLY? What did he say?

Paranoidmoonduck
04-02-2008, 12:41 AM
ORLY? What did he say?

He was asked about the mock drafts that have McFadden going to Oakland, and said that he didn't consider runningback a need, then spoke at length of how pleased he was with Oakland's runningback depth.

He also hinted that defensive line is at the very top of Oakland list, whether they manage to trade down or not. He also expected that this year's draft room will be run much like last year's, which should suggest that Kiffin should have as much or more say that anyone else there (Al included).

An interesting tidbit that Kiffin also noted: Rob Ryan apparently thinks that Tommy Kelly is the best 3-technique in the NFL.

thebow305
04-02-2008, 12:49 AM
Of course, anything said this time of year, especially at the owner meetings, should be taken with a grain of salt.



Very true.. It's just my thoughts though on the subject. And BTW, just in case anyone was wondering why this is here. I put it in the Phins Team Forum as well, but I wanted to get some feedback on this from all sides of the NFL and everyone here at the Countdown. Everyone, not just the Phins Fans.

Scott Wright
04-02-2008, 12:58 AM
Good post.

However, the first problem is it would be a huge mistake to believe anything a coach, G.M., scout, owner, etc. says this time of the year. Everyone has an agenda.

And why isn't Jake Long the best player available at #1? Sure he isn't Joe Thomas but there isn't anyone in this draft who is on the same level as a prospect as he was, with the possible exception of McFadden. In my opinion Jake Long is the clear #2 player in this draft and I think there is a big drop-off after him and McFadden.

thebow305
04-02-2008, 01:02 AM
Good post.

However, the first problem is it would be a huge mistake to believe anything a coach, G.M., scout, owner, etc. says this time of the year. Everyone has an agenda.

And why isn't Jake Long the best player available at #1? Sure he isn't Joe Thomas but there isn't anyone in this draft who is on the same level as a prospect as he was, with the possible exception of McFadden. In my opinion Jake Long is the clear #2 player in this draft and I think there is a big drop-off after him and McFadden.

So you don't think that Chris Long is at the same level as Jake as a prospect? I think you would be in the minority in that assumption as there are tons of other experts that have him rated #1 this year. And I also think Gholston's potential TRUMPS Jake Longs. My case and point for both being the favorites over Jake, besides the fact he would be a RT for us, apparently as of right now.

Geo
04-02-2008, 01:07 AM
Jake Long will never be an elite left tackle ... because of draft/football "experts?" The only experts I'd listen to are my scouts and my coaches, personally.

As for comparison to Joe Thomas, I've got Jake Long absolutely equal to Thomas. I always have, it's funny how a superb rookie year by Thomas has retroactively enhanced how he was/is viewed as a draft prospect. He had just as many concerns, meanwhile we're additionally penalizing Long as being more of a right tackle because he played right tackle his first two years at Michigan. He handled the left side exceptionally well the last two years, transitioning to a zone-blocking scheme.

Does that mean Long will perform as well as a rookie/pro as Thomas did? Not necessarily, but we're judging them as prospects.

vidae
04-02-2008, 01:07 AM
I'm not nearly the draftniks you guys are, but I think Gholston will be the pick. He can play multiple positions, he's fast.. he is a gamechanger on defense and that's the kind of person Parcells will want, I think.

I don't see them taking Jake Long first overall, even though I think he is a better prospect than you do, thebow.

Scott Wright
04-02-2008, 01:26 AM
I don't think Jake Long is ever going to be Jon Ogden or Walter Jones, but then against Chris Long is never going to be Lawrence Taylor or Dwight Freeney either.

There is a lot less guess work with Jake Long and I don't see any way he is not going to be at least a very, very good starting tackle in the NFL, regardless of which side it is on. Can you honestly say that about Chris Long?

I don't want to knock Chris because I think he's a heck of a football player and my Top 5 overall players in this draft, but I think Jake is easily the superior prospect in my book.

thebow305
04-02-2008, 01:33 AM
I don't think Jake Long is ever going to be Jon Ogden or Walter Jones, but then against Chris Long is never going to be Lawrence Taylor or Dwight Freeney either.

There is a lot less guess work with Jake Long and I don't see any way he is not going to be at least a very, very good starting tackle in the NFL, regardless of which side it is on. Can you honestly say that about Chris Long?

I don't want to knock Chris because I think he's a heck of a football player and my Top 5 overall players in this draft, but I think Jake is easily the superior prospect in my book.

To answer your question about Chris: I don't see any real scenario where he is not at least a very good, solid starting OLB/DE for whichever team he ends up with. I see him as the absolute safest pick in this year's draft and the proverbial "Can't Miss" player.

Maybe he will never be Elite, but maybe he will.

Gholston could be though. He could certainly end up as a Lawrence Taylor-like impact player for the team that picks him. He is the ultimate high-risk/high-reward, boom-or-bust player in this year's draft for sure. It just depends on whether Parcells thinks he will be worth it in the end.

Scott, I haven't heard you talk in depth, pertaining to Gholston as the #1 pick to Miami. I would like to get your opinion on it. And your thoughts about my insight into it.

Paranoidmoonduck
04-02-2008, 01:53 AM
Personally, I've never really gotten the perception that Gholston is somehow a better fit to stand up and play linebacker than Chris Long.

Long got way more time at Virginia playing upright that Gholston did at Ohio State, takes better angles to the football, and showed much more ability against the run (something that should indicate his ability to work through traffic and make an impact outside the hashmarks). To top it all off, Long posted better agility numbers across the board than Gholston, and looked markedly better in linebacker drills.

Perhaps someone thinks they could turn Gholston into an outside 'backer, but to suggest that he's as suited for the move as, say, DeMarcus Ware was coming out of Troy looks flat out false to me.

Scott Wright
04-02-2008, 01:56 AM
Any time you are projecting a player to a position he hasn't played before it's a risky proposition. That alone makes Chris a riskier prospect than Jake.

As far as Gholston to Miami, I don't believe he is really in the picture, at least at #1. He and Chris Long are similar players and they prefer Long. Now if they moved down Gholston could be a consideration.

Oh, and one more thing...

Pop Quiz:

How many 3-4 outside linebackers have gone in the Top 5 overall in the last five years?

Answer: Zero.

In, fact, only one has gone in the Top 10 overall in that same time span (Terrell Suggs, #10 in 2003)

D-Rod
04-02-2008, 03:40 AM
Miami are just having fun at the moment with the public statements. Their tactical situation is that they don't want anyone to have a clue whom they are planning to take. That way, they don't rule out any potential trades. Trying to analyse what they say is a total waste of time.

I agree that they should take Jake Long. He's safe, the money isn't totally out of whack, and the position is definitely a need. Carey could possibly start at LT, but he's just as suited, if not more so, to RT. I hope they don't, since I want JL for the Falcons, but I'm not overly optimistic.

Incidentally, Scott, since when was there a big gap between Dorsey and JL as prospects? If you're taking into account the injury rumours, fine, but given that we don't have the medical reports, and Dorsey never missed a game, that seems a little foolish. Dorsey, ignoring the injury rumours, is the closest to an elite prospect that this draft has.

What really stands out about Dorsey is that he has elite tools, elite performance on film, AND elite character; most of all, he compares favourably to any DT prospect in the past five years. You can't make the respective claim for any other player in this draft.

Scott Wright
04-02-2008, 05:12 AM
Miami are just having fun at the moment with the public statements. Their tactical situation is that they don't want anyone to have a clue whom they are planning to take. That way, they don't rule out any potential trades. Trying to analyse what they say is a total waste of time.

I agree that they should take Jake Long. He's safe, the money isn't totally out of whack, and the position is definitely a need. Carey could possibly start at LT, but he's just as suited, if not more so, to RT. I hope they don't, since I want JL for the Falcons, but I'm not overly optimistic.

Incidentally, Scott, since when was there a big gap between Dorsey and JL as prospects? If you're taking into account the injury rumours, fine, but given that we don't have the medical reports, and Dorsey never missed a game, that seems a little foolish. Dorsey, ignoring the injury rumours, is the closest to an elite prospect that this draft has.

What really stands out about Dorsey is that he has elite tools, elite performance on film, AND elite character; most of all, he compares favourably to any DT prospect in the past five years. You can't make the respective claim for any other player in this draft.

Very true, there isn't as much of a gap between Jake Long and Glenn Dorsey as there is between Jake Long and Chris Long (in my mind) and Dorsey will probably be moving back up to the #3 spot in my overall rankings.

With that said all things being equal in terms of need I would without question take Jake Long over Dorsey just because I feel he is a safer pick. I know the durability issue might be overblown to a certain degree and he hasn't really missed time because of them but it is still a concern for me.

D-Rod
04-02-2008, 06:01 AM
Very true, there isn't as much of a gap between Jake Long and Glenn Dorsey as there is between Jake Long and Chris Long (in my mind) and Dorsey will probably be moving back up to the #3 spot in my overall rankings.

With that said all things being equal in terms of need I would without question take Jake Long over Dorsey just because I feel he is a safer pick. I know the durability issue might be overblown to a certain degree and he hasn't really missed time because of them but it is still a concern for me.

Fair enough. I think Dorsey's upside is higher than that of JL, but the security of the pick probably balances that out.

Personally, I'd have Dorsey and JL as the clear cut top 2 guys, with McFadden penalised for character - yes, it hasn't been a huge problem, but with character being such an issue right now, and with JL and Dorsey having such impressive character in contrast to DMC, I think that it's enough to push McFadden out of that two-man top tier as an overall prospect.

A Perfect Score
04-02-2008, 07:49 AM
does anyone else see the chris long/patrick kerney comparison? so my question to you, thebow, is would you be willing to draft patrick kerney with the #1 overall pick, passing on say, oh i dunno, a possible dominant run blocking/good pass blocking LT?

come on, this theory that Jake Long cant play LT in the pros is way overblown. ALot of it has to do with scheme, first off, and whether the coaches decide to leave him alone on an island with a dwight freeney (which, when we look at what freeney did to ogden a few years ago, is a bad idea no matter who is playing LT) or whether they decide to utilize him properly.

IMO, chris long is not a #1 overall pick. Hes good yes. He will be solid. I cna see him as a consistent 8-10 sack guy. But in football, you can get that in the 4th round. His name is Jared Allen. thats just an example. Case in point, there are plenty of pass rushers in this draft. If miami wants a hybrid, they can pick up a shawn crable, a marcus howard, a cliff avril, or someone else later in the draft. The way i see it, they dont even need a pss rusher outside anyways. Wat is wrong with joey porter, reggie torbor, and jason taylor? That seems pretty damn good to me. Now having vernon carey, a RT, playing LT? seems much less secure then their OLB position...

I think jake long should be the pick. I have him as a hair below joe thomas, and as a much better prospect then levi brown. And as im not a fan of mcfadden at all, jake long is the #1 prospect on my board this year. I just dont see how Miami can not take him, when it is their biggest need, he is one of the few players with adequate value, and he is a pretty sure thing, although thatts wat they said about Robert gallery too (my point being, nothing is a sure bet in the draft)

AtariBigby
04-02-2008, 08:45 AM
CHRIS LONG is clearly the #1 prospect in this draft. Not even close.
Size, speed, strength, intelligence, football intelligence, health, and bloodlines, plus work ethic...... what more could anyone ask for?

The BIG TUNA Bill Parcells is well aware of all this, having coached against Howie Long. There are NO QUESTIONS whatsoever about CHRIS LONG.

Pencil him into Miami, and move on to what the Rams will do at #2 between the blocker Long or the Dorsey/Gholston debate in St Louis.....I'd take Jake Long if I was them, with fragile Bulger there, and a great RB in Jackson.

BeerBaron
04-02-2008, 10:33 AM
i look at it from a money standpoint personally. i dont think chris long is worth #1 overall money.

look at what russell got last year. now, if i recall correctly, each year, it seems that players get about a 5-7% raise over what the guy taken in their spot last year got.

now, russell was a QB and was bound to get more money, but to anyone here willing to argue that chris long, a great all around, high motor, do everything DE imo but a bad fit at either 34 DE or OLB in the pros, is worth close to or more than what JaMarcus Russell got last year....well your foolish.

Now if long were a guy who would be getting you 12 sacks at least every year and dominating the line of scrimmage, forcing offenses to take him into full account, well then yes, sure.

but hes not that guy. hes well rounded, hell do everything well for ya, but hes not a stud pass rusher and thats the only way a DE should get #1 overall money.

just an opinion but if looking at who is actually worth that much money it comes down to a QB (and i hate ryan) or a potential franchise tackle, which jake long is the closest thing in this draft to

thebow305
04-02-2008, 10:57 AM
i look at it from a money standpoint personally. i dont think chris long is worth #1 overall money.

look at what russell got last year. now, if i recall correctly, each year, it seems that players get about a 5-7% raise over what the guy taken in their spot last year got.

now, russell was a QB and was bound to get more money, but to anyone here willing to argue that chris long, a great all around, high motor, do everything DE imo but a bad fit at either 34 DE or OLB in the pros, is worth close to or more than what JaMarcus Russell got last year....well your foolish.

Now if long were a guy who would be getting you 12 sacks at least every year and dominating the line of scrimmage, forcing offenses to take him into full account, well then yes, sure.

but hes not that guy. hes well rounded, hell do everything well for ya, but hes not a stud pass rusher and thats the only way a DE should get #1 overall money.

just an opinion but if looking at who is actually worth that much money it comes down to a QB (and i hate ryan) or a potential franchise tackle, which jake long is the closest thing in this draft to

I don't know how you can completely dismiss Chris Long as a dominating pass rusher. We have no reason to believe he won't be exactly that. His dad was, h seemed pretty good at in in college, and all the workouts are right on par with the other workouts of the great pas rushers in recent past drafts, if not better. The main argument in this thread sees to be about him not being worth the #1 pick and the money being put into it. But you guys keep beating the same dead horse. We know this is a terrible year to have the #1 pick. There is NO ONE worth the pick this year, so we must make do with what we have, because after all, we HAVE to take someone. Jake Long coud very well be the pick as most of you are saying, but I see him as very far from a SURE thing. Which is why my bet goes on Chris Long or Vernon Gholston, two guys that play Parcells favorite position, and are pretty darn good at it. Whether you want to argue it or not, you ustdon't take a Right Tackle at #1 overall. And for all the bellyaching about paying Gholston or Chris that type of money, you wouldn't mind paying Howie Long or Lawrence Taylor that if they did indeeed turn out to be as good as these players, which is POSSIBLE. 'm not saying it WILL happen but it is POSSIBLE. Even if Chris were to turn out to be Patrick Kearney, the man is a Pro Bowler, and a VERY good player in this league for a long time. And he is a sure thing! I don't see Jake being any better than Jon Runyan, who is a very good player in his own right so don't get me wrong. But he could also be Robert Gallery. IMO, I would rather give the money to the guy with the great bloodlines, apparent leadership ability, and field savvy to be the face of our franchise for a long time once JT is no longer apart of it, which could be sooner than later. And that guy is Chris Long.

Also, about the ability of VG against Chris to play LB, I don' know what you guys are talking about. Chris Long played a very limited role at OLB towards the end of the season. The majority of the year was spent at 3-4 DE for him. Gholston on the other hand, had a handful of plays designed for him this past yer, dropping back into coverage and playing that hybrid OLB spot. Gholston has played much more of it than Chris Long I would say, although he did not look as impressive as Long doing so in all the workouts, he does have the experience edge. But just by a little, every little bit counts though!

BeerBaron
04-02-2008, 11:07 AM
I don't know how you can completely dismiss Chris Long as a dominating pass rusher. We have no reason to believe he won't be exactly that. His dad was, h seemed pretty good at in in college, and all the workouts are right on par with the other workouts of the great pas rushers in recent past drafts, if not better. The main argument in this thread sees to be about him not being worth the #1 pick and the money being put into it. But you guys keep beating the same dead horse. We know this is a terrible year to have the #1 pick. There is NO ONE worth the pick this year, so we must make do with what we have, because after all, we HAVE to take someone. Jake Long coud very well be the pick as most of you are saying, but I see him as very far from a SURE thing. Which is why my bet goes on Chris Long or Vernon Gholston, two guys that play Parcells favorite position, and are pretty darn good at it. Whether you want to argue it or not, you ustdon't take a Right Tackle at #1 overall. And for all the bellyaching about paying Gholston or Chris that type of money, you wouldn't mind paying Howie Long or Lawrence Taylor that if they did indeeed turn out to be as good as these players, which is POSSIBLE. 'm not saying it WILL happen but it is POSSIBLE. Even if Chris were to turn out to be Patrick Kearney, the man is a Pro Bowler, and a VERY good player in this league for a long time. And he is a sure thing! I don't see Jake being any better than Jon Runyan, who is a very good player in his own right so don't get me wrong. But he could also be Robert Gallery. IMO, I would rather give the money to the guy with the great bloodlines, apparent leadership ability, and field savvy to be the face of our franchise for a long time once JT is no longer apart of it, which could be sooner than later. And that guy is Chris Long.

Also, about the ability of VG against Chris to play LB, I don' know what you guys are talking about. Chris Long played a very limited role at OLB towards the end of the season. The majority of the year was spent at 3-4 DE for him. Gholston on the other hand, had a handful of plays designed for him this past yer, dropping back into coverage and playing that hybrid OLB spot. Gholston has played much more of it than Chris Long I would say, although he did not look as impressive as Long doing so in all the workouts, he does have the experience edge. But just by a little, every little bit counts though!

you point to one of the few OT busts in recent memory, that of gallery, and say that long is less like a sure thing that guys at the DE position where it seems like theres always a few people who bust each year.

now, i feel like chris long may be the safest player in draft since hes much more well rounded than your standard pass rushing DE. and if the dolphins ran a 43, id be all for him and his well-roundedness and his motor as teh #1 overall pick.

problem is, they dont. he may have been a great 34 end in college but at 270, hes a good 25-30 pounds smaller than your average nfl 34 end. look at guys successful as 34 ends in the pros for examples. aaron smith of the steelers is at least 290, seymour of the pats is a good 300 pounds, both of the chargers guys are at least 290....

sure long could add weight to be as stoud as them, but then he would sacrifice his speed and some pass rushing ability with it.

switching to a 34 olb is also possible, but if they were going to do taht with him, id just go with gholston because i think he has a different kind of athleticism that lends itself more playing that position in the pros.

i dont think long or gholston would be bad picks, but to hand jamarcus russell money to one of them for the impact they would have just isnt worth it to me. if football wasnt a buisness and you just wanted the best player available, then i would listen much more to calls for the pick to be chris long or gholston.

but like i said before, i feel that it just makes sense to pay a potential franchise OT that money

toonsterwu
04-02-2008, 11:25 AM
switching to a 34 olb is also possible, but if they were going to do taht with him, id just go with gholston because i think he has a different kind of athleticism that lends itself more playing that position in the pros.

I'm intrigued by the quote. What type of athleticism are you referencing? Gholston's big advantage to Chris is in straight line speed, whereas Long's shown better quickness and agility.

iloxygenil
04-02-2008, 11:45 AM
I think that #3 is the perfect spot for Dorsey Scott, and I think that your analysis of the 2 players Long and Dorsey with Long being the safer pick is spot on, and that's why I think the Falcons won't get a shot at him come the end of the month, so I think the Falcons get 'stuck' with Dorsey, but turn out extremely happy.

thebow305
04-02-2008, 12:27 PM
you point to one of the few OT busts in recent memory, that of gallery, and say that long is less like a sure thing that guys at the DE position where it seems like theres always a few people who bust each year.

now, i feel like chris long may be the safest player in draft since hes much more well rounded than your standard pass rushing DE. and if the dolphins ran a 43, id be all for him and his well-roundedness and his motor as teh #1 overall pick.

problem is, they dont. he may have been a great 34 end in college but at 270, hes a good 25-30 pounds smaller than your average nfl 34 end. look at guys successful as 34 ends in the pros for examples. aaron smith of the steelers is at least 290, seymour of the pats is a good 300 pounds, both of the chargers guys are at least 290....

sure long could add weight to be as stoud as them, but then he would sacrifice his speed and some pass rushing ability with it.

switching to a 34 olb is also possible, but if they were going to do taht with him, id just go with gholston because i think he has a different kind of athleticism that lends itself more playing that position in the pros.

i dont think long or gholston would be bad picks, but to hand jamarcus russell money to one of them for the impact they would have just isnt worth it to me. if football wasnt a buisness and you just wanted the best player available, then i would listen much more to calls for the pick to be chris long or gholston.

but like i said before, i feel that it just makes sense to pay a potential franchise OT that money

The problem with giving either player JaMarcus Russell money is that, plainly, even JaMarcus Russell didn't deserve JaMarcus Russell money. That is exactly the problem with paying any of these untested college players tha type of money. It's ridiculous to be paying these guys this type of money before they have ever even played a down of football in the NFL yet. And it gets worse every year, as the percentage of guaranteed money and salary get more expensive for the top picks. The fact of the matter is, it's much more worth it to ive the money to a player, regardless of whether it's Jake Long, Chris Long, or Vernon Gholston, that will play right away and make an immediate contribution. I was never a big fan of Russell as it was, and he, like many other top QB picks, sat his butt on the bench for the majority of the season, not contributing one bit. But since he is a QB, and all the others do it, it's ok? Give me a friggin break! That is a terrible argument, Peyton came right in an played right away, athough unsuccessful at first, but look how that turned out. At least he was out there earning that money. If it's me shelling out the money, and I HAVE to give it to SOMEONE, I'm taking someone who's starting Week One - Week 17, barring injuries, BOTTOM LINE. Whether it be Chris Long, Jake Long or Vernon Gholston, someone is gonna get the money, and will play right away, whether successful or not, we will have to wait and see, at least we will know we have a Player, not a Bench Warmer.

BeerBaron
04-02-2008, 12:34 PM
I'm intrigued by the quote. What type of athleticism are you referencing? Gholston's big advantage to Chris is in straight line speed, whereas Long's shown better quickness and agility.

well my thinking was that if your going to be pass rushing from a standing up postion, that straight line speed would be very nice to have. long is not slouch of a pass rusher but i think his abilities translate to being a hand-in-the-dirt end, plus i also like his ability to be stout and stop the run

thebow305
04-02-2008, 05:06 PM
well my thinking was that if your going to be pass rushing from a standing up postion, that straight line speed would be very nice to have. long is not slouch of a pass rusher but i think his abilities translate to being a hand-in-the-dirt end, plus i also like his ability to be stout and stop the run

Chris appears to be the better run-stopper, but I think Gholston has the slight edge in getting to the QB with that straight line speed.

Paranoidmoonduck
04-02-2008, 05:18 PM
Chris appears to be the better run-stopper, but I think Gholston has the slight edge in getting to the QB with that straight line speed.

But a defensive end can get away with being a pure edge rusher. A linebacker, even a specialized 3-4 outside linebacker, cannot. Gholston will still have to track down runners on outside runs and he'll still have to drop back into coverage. It's unavoidable, and considering the question marks surrounding his ability to do that, one would wonder if he even warrants consideration as a 3-4 linebacker being selected #1 overall.

Perhaps Ware and Merrimen make the biggest headlines with their sack numbers, but those guys are excellent in run support, work well in space, and at least Ware will make standout plays in coverage. Gholston might not even be a 3-down player in a 3-4 right now.

And, you know, for all the talk of Gholston having better speed, he and Chris Long had the exact same 10-yard dash time at the combine. Gholston's real value comes in the burst he gets when he's playing with his fist in the dirt, which would seem to point towards him being a far better fit in a 4-3 scheme.

thebow305
04-02-2008, 07:19 PM
But a defensive end can get away with being a pure edge rusher. A linebacker, even a specialized 3-4 outside linebacker, cannot. Gholston will still have to track down runners on outside runs and he'll still have to drop back into coverage. It's unavoidable, and considering the question marks surrounding his ability to do that, one would wonder if he even warrants consideration as a 3-4 linebacker being selected #1 overall.

Perhaps Ware and Merrimen make the biggest headlines with their sack numbers, but those guys are excellent in run support, work well in space, and at least Ware will make standout plays in coverage. Gholston might not even be a 3-down player in a 3-4 right now.

And, you know, for all the talk of Gholston having better speed, he and Chris Long had the exact same 10-yard dash time at the combine. Gholston's real value comes in the burst he gets when he's playing with his fist in the dirt, which would seem to point towards him being a far better fit in a 4-3 scheme.

You could be dead on with this assessment, but you forget that Merriman has very average coverage skills as well, so for just being a dominant edge rusher, Gholston could probably get by on just that.

etk
04-02-2008, 07:35 PM
Good post, couldn't have said it better myself. I think you overanalyzed it when the simple logic should be:

"The Dolphins will take an OLB with the #1 pick. Vernon Gholston is the best prospect for that system. Vernon Gholston will be the pick."

swollja
04-02-2008, 08:33 PM
this may sound ridiculous but i think some people think long is less athletic than golston because long's white. long is a much more fluid athlete. rushing the passer will be running around guys or juking them even along with obvious block shedding. they won't even run a straight line for 5 yards.

ThePudge
04-02-2008, 09:12 PM
What I got from that post (a day or two ago) with Sparano, Ireland, etc., is that the team isn't going Matt Ryan. If they were trying to lure a team to trade up, they'd imply that Ryan is the pick and try to draw Atlanta or Kansas City into trading up. However, they didn't do that. Instead, Sparano states that he's a John Beck fan and is on board with Project Beck.

McFadden was never an option, if you are selecting a player 1st Overall he should fill a need, which he wouldn't. Also, McFadden is far from a perfect or even safe prospect. There is plenty to criticize (ex. Running style, character issues, lack of lower body strength, build.)

I don't think it necessarily implied Jake Long won't be the pick, guaranteed. Though, I think it state that the team did think it could find someone in the 2nd/3rd (likely G. Cherilus or C. Nicks at RT.)

I like Chris Long over Gholston though as a 3-4 OLB. Gholston has played LB, but he's not a natural fit, despite his athleticism. Long has played in that stand up role and succeeded, he's even losing weight currently to add speed and quickness for the LB spot. He's down almost 15-20 lbs or so from his playing weight at Virginia and has looked great. I think the Dolphins look Gholston, but in the end go with Long.

If it were to be put in percentages...

50% Chris Long
35% Vernon Gholston
10% Jake Long
5% Matt Ryan (Never say never) - On his way out though

LonghornsLegend
04-02-2008, 09:38 PM
@TheBow, I think its a little much to just rule out Jake Long, thats your personal opinion but im almost certain when it comes down to Parcells if he hasnt already decided on Jake he's surely still in the picture more so then Gholston is...Scott already said they prefer Chris Long over Gholston, just because he has immense potential doesnt mean they feel he's suited to be taken at that spot.


If you guys pass on Jake Long you might potentially have a huge dropoff at the next tackle you get with your 2nd rd pick, and there still will be plenty of pass rushing olb's available at that spot...All this about Jake Long not being able to play LT, do you have any quotes from Parcells or Sparano? Because this is just internet rumors about him not playing there, no one has came out and said he's a RT for sure and he has no shot at LT, I think certain people have been running with that as if its fact and its unproven.

thebow305
04-02-2008, 10:47 PM
@TheBow, I think its a little much to just rule out Jake Long, thats your personal opinion but im almost certain when it comes down to Parcells if he hasnt already decided on Jake he's surely still in the picture more so then Gholston is...Scott already said they prefer Chris Long over Gholston, just because he has immense potential doesnt mean they feel he's suited to be taken at that spot.


If you guys pass on Jake Long you might potentially have a huge dropoff at the next tackle you get with your 2nd rd pick, and there still will be plenty of pass rushing olb's available at that spot...All this about Jake Long not being able to play LT, do you have any quotes from Parcells or Sparano? Because this is just internet rumors about him not playing there, no one has came out and said he's a RT for sure and he has no shot at LT, I think certain people have been running with that as if its fact and its unproven.

So just because Scott says we would prefer Chris Long over Gholston, it's a sure thing? Scott has been wrong before and could be very much so here, JMO.

Iamcanadian
04-02-2008, 11:15 PM
Well, after reading all these posts, it is pretty obvious that whoever Miami takes at #1 will come as a surprise to some as it still appears to be wide open and will remain so because Parcells wants to trade down, and the whole process so far is to convince as many top 5 drafting teams that they may not get the player they want without trading with Miami.
Parcells is trying to influence a team to trade up by being very closed mouth about who he will take. I'm sure he has made up his mind long ago who he will take if he's stuck with the #1 overall pick, but we won't know until draft day.

toonsterwu
04-02-2008, 11:27 PM
well my thinking was that if your going to be pass rushing from a standing up postion, that straight line speed would be very nice to have. long is not slouch of a pass rusher but i think his abilities translate to being a hand-in-the-dirt end, plus i also like his ability to be stout and stop the run

I would think quickness would have more significance as a 3-4 edge rusher than straight line speed. Certainly, straight line speed for a 3-4 OLB is a bit more important than for a 4-3 end, but the ability to be quicker is always the breaking factor (when it comes to speed vs. quickness) for me.

In all honesty, if we're going off just physical skillset, I would argue (and I'm surprised I'm even doing this, considering I started the cycle off lukewarm on Long's chances of going this high) that Long is the better 3-4 OLB and Vernon Gholston's strength makes him a better 4-3 end between the two that is. Now, Long's technical ability pulls him equal to Gholston's as a 4-3 end. His advantage as a 3-4 OLB is his ability to mirror in coverage.

Now, that said, I think both could be fine for both systems, and part of it comes down to how you utilize your OLB's.

A Perfect Score
04-03-2008, 08:27 AM
I would think quickness would have more significance as a 3-4 edge rusher than straight line speed. Certainly, straight line speed for a 3-4 OLB is a bit more important than for a 4-3 end, but the ability to be quicker is always the breaking factor (when it comes to speed vs. quickness) for me.

In all honesty, if we're going off just physical skillset, I would argue (and I'm surprised I'm even doing this, considering I started the cycle off lukewarm on Long's chances of going this high) that Long is the better 3-4 OLB and Vernon Gholston's strength makes him a better 4-3 end between the two that is. Now, Long's technical ability pulls him equal to Gholston's as a 4-3 end. His advantage as a 3-4 OLB is his ability to mirror in coverage.

Now, that said, I think both could be fine for both systems, and part of it comes down to how you utilize your OLB's.

i agree with this, i think that gholston is too stiff to be a pure 3-4 OLB...i guess i could see him succeeding in a sort of hybrid offense that runs some 4-3 and 3-4...does anyone else see teh vernon gholston/terrell suggs comparison? gholston is faster straight line, but same type of player...suggs has never been amazing in coverage either, but as long as we utilize him properly he is a weapon. I can see the same type of thing for gholston...

Scott Wright
04-03-2008, 08:32 AM
So just because Scott says we would prefer Chris Long over Gholston, it's a sure thing? Scott has been wrong before and could be very much so here, JMO.

I've been wrong? I don't recall that... :)

Seriously though I would be flabbergasted if Parcells didn't prefer Chris Long to Vernon Gholston.

thebow305
04-03-2008, 11:15 AM
I've been wrong? I don't recall that... :)

Seriously though I would be flabbergasted if Parcells didn't prefer Chris Long to Vernon Gholston.

But weren't you flabbergasted when we passed Quinn for Ginn last year?

History could repeat itself my friend. :)

keylime_5
04-03-2008, 12:18 PM
There was a lot of smoke that the Dolphins were in love with Ginn last year, and most people thought that if Levi Brown and Brady Quinn were gone that Ginn was definitely gonna be their pick, me included. The surprise wasn't that they wanted Ginn it was that they took him with Quinn still available. There is no way Miami is gonna take Gholston over Long #1 overall. Vernon can definitely play OLB in a 3-4, but he is not as ideal as a fit there as some make him out to be, in other words he doesn't move as fluidly as Merriman, Ware, Wimbley, McGinest, etc. Chris Long is a better prospect than Gholston which is why Miami is not going to pass on him for Vernon. In fact the only guy they'll consider other than Chris at #1 is Jake.

keylime_5
04-03-2008, 12:21 PM
I've been wrong? I don't recall that... :)

Seriously though I would be flabbergasted if Parcells didn't prefer Chris Long to Vernon Gholston.

This is totally OT, but Scott you're in Minnesota, what's the deal with Lutefisk? Stinky jello fish, I don't get how people can eat that. :)