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View Full Version : Here is a great read on Draft myths


Iamcanadian
04-03-2008, 07:49 AM
http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?id=09000d5d80789c94&template=with-video&confirm=true&campaign=ec0005

For all those who think you should draft a QB in round 2 with its 3% success rate, or RB's can be found in later rounds. This is a must read.

eaglesalltheway
04-03-2008, 07:56 AM
Good read, informative, and I agree with a lot of those concepts.

Caddy
04-03-2008, 08:18 AM
There really isn't any statistical evidence to balance the claims so the article doesn't impress me too much.

MetSox17
04-03-2008, 09:16 AM
There really isn't any statistical evidence to balance the claims so the article doesn't impress me too much.

Yeah, i was hoping he would use some stats to help clear those "myths",
but all he did was give his opinion with no factual evidence.

Jughead10
04-03-2008, 10:20 AM
There really isn't any statistical evidence to balance the claims so the article doesn't impress me too much.

Agreed. This doesn't support anything about drafting RBs early:


Myth No. 2: Don't waste a first-round pick on a running back. The Broncos had great success with their running game with late-round backs like Terrell Davis and Mike Anderson, to name a few over the years. The prevailing thought was that other teams should be able to succeed with late-round picks, too. How do you think the six teams that passed on Adrian Peterson feel about that concept? The Broncos' offensive line was pretty darn good and maybe, just maybe, teams made a mistake on their evaluation of Terrell Davis.
Those two examples lead me to the myth of 2008:

There are different ways to look at it. If you have a consistently very good not even great O-line, you can get away with having later picks at RB.

The CB response is even worse. He brings up the Giants as an example and then points to Corey Webster. Hate to break it to him, but Corey Webster is just average. Maybe even less than average. Three years in the league and the guy has had 4 good games. We are just lucky they all came in the playoffs.

Scott Wright
04-03-2008, 10:27 AM
I have to agree, that wasn't very well written.

I_C_DeadPeople
04-03-2008, 10:31 AM
The consistently good teams in the league draft well throughout all rounds. That is not a myth. Everything else is just manipulating draft results based on whatever scenario one wants.

Jughead10
04-03-2008, 10:33 AM
The consistently good teams in the league draft well throughout all rounds. That is not a myth. Everything else is just manipulating draft results based on whatever scenario one wants.

I somewhat agree with that. But as far as the RBs go, to me financially in this NFL it makes sense to look for later RBs. The life span on the average RB is short. I'd rather make long term investments in making a great O-line and plugging in RBs accordingly. Bottom line though you need a QB in this league. There is no arguing that.

Maybe Next Year Millen2
04-03-2008, 10:44 AM
http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=position&position=Running%20Backs
If you look at the RB draft history. Most of the recent backs that have had great/very good careers come from Round 1. LT,Alexander,Edge,LJ,,Marshall Faulk,Adrian Peterson,Eddie George, Robert Smith, Warrick Dunn, Bettis, Jamal Lewis

Also good RBs/young RBs with a ton of potential/have been very good in thier young career Steven Jackson, Lynch,McGahee,Thomas Jones,Cadillac,Ronnie Brown,Addai,Maroney,to a lesser extent DeAngelo Williams,Kevin Jones,Duckett are all Round 1 picks as well. Maybe Benson but he is leaning towards bust.

Those 2 list combined make up the majority of the league.

True busts are more in the category of Michael Bennett,Dayne,Perry,Candidate,William Green, Enis,Lawrence Phillips but compared to what you might get with the first Round 1 list I gave, its worth it to find a back in Round 1.

There are a few exceptions such as Jones-Drew,Westbrook,Portis,Gore,Rudi Johnson,Tiki,Ahman Green, Brandon Jacobs,Marion Barber, to a lesser extent Tatum Bell,Fargas,Chris Brown,Julius Jones,DeShaun Foster all come from Round 2-3 range. Round 4-7 success stories are extreme exceptions creating the myth of Terrell Davis. But given the number of picks in Round 2-4, there are bound to be some success stories if you have a good O-line like many of these backs had, other than maybe Frank Gore.

Round 1 is the way to go for running back unless you have a good line. Then you can get away with Round 2-3 for a RB. Round 4 or later you are really pushing it. You might be able to get a good support guy like Ahmad Bradshaw or get really lucky and find a Terrell Davis/possibly now Ryan Grant, but that is unlikely.

marks01234
04-03-2008, 11:31 AM
"Myth No. 2: Don't waste a first-round pick on a running back. The Broncos had great success with their running game with late-round backs like Terrell Davis and Mike Anderson, to name a few over the years. The prevailing thought was that other teams should be able to succeed with late-round picks, too. How do you think the six teams that passed on Adrian Peterson feel about that concept? The Broncos' offensive line was pretty darn good and maybe, just maybe, teams made a mistake on their evaluation of Terrell Davis.

Those two examples lead me to the myth of 2008:"

The Pats and Colts would beg to differ.

Addict
04-03-2008, 11:40 AM
Really... I don't see how this is a great read. Kirwan, although he does have the occasional nice piece, isn't a very compelling writer and you can really tell he's not a journalist. He knows football, but his writing isn't very eloquent. He has good ideas sometimes, but just doesn't do the best job possible when it comes to putting it on (digital) paper.

ChezPower4
04-03-2008, 12:29 PM
interesting