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View Full Version : Matt Ryan is so overrated it's a joke...


MikeMayockSux
04-03-2008, 01:46 PM
Completions:
35
121
263
388

TOTAL: 807

Attempts:
71
195
427
654

TOTAL: 1,347

Yards:
350
1514
2942
4057

TOTAL: 8,863

Completion Percentage:
49.3
62.1
61.6
59.3

AVG: 59.9% (807/1347)

Yards Per Attempt:
4.93
7.76
6.89
6.89

Touchdowns:
2
8
15
31

TOTAL: 56

INT's:
3
5
10
19

TOTAL: 37


Tell me again why he's worth a Top 10 pick? Bottom line, he isn't. If Brady Quinn wasn't worth a Top 10 pick, then this scrub Matt Ryan isn't worth one.

toonsterwu
04-03-2008, 01:51 PM
You do realize that almost everyone has Ryan as the top QB in the draft and a top 10 pick. Even the most negative Ryan supporter almost acknowledges that his firewall is Baltimore.

And as for his value and why he's a top 10 pick and a top 5 value for most people, part of the equation is about how a player projects to the NFL. I'm not even a huge Ryan fan (Flacco's my personal favorite), but Ryan projects well to the NFL and he's the most ready of all the QB's. Furthermore, this is a draft where the top is relatively weak overall.

ChezPower4
04-03-2008, 01:57 PM
Need also has to be takin into consideration every year their are teams at the top of the draft board that need QBs wether those QBs deserve a top pick is debateable but I think that matt ryan is not a top 10 pick but i know that he will be takin in the top 10 because of need.

MikeMayockSux
04-03-2008, 01:58 PM
You do realize that almost everyone has Ryan as the top QB in the draft and a top 10 pick. Even the most negative Ryan supporter almost acknowledges that his firewall is Baltimore.

And as for his value and why he's a top 10 pick and a top 5 value for most people, part of the equation is about how a player projects to the NFL. I'm not even a huge Ryan fan (Flacco's my personal favorite), but Ryan projects well to the NFL and he's the most ready of all the QB's. Furthermore, this is a draft where the top is relatively weak overall.

Ryan is the Top QB because this is a weak QB draft. Just because it's a weak QB draft doesn't mean teams have to be morons and take the guy high.

It's why so many teams in the NFL continually suck and miss the boat when it comes draft time.

Ryan isn't worth a Top 10 pick...PERIOD.

Glenn Dorsey
Jake Long
Chris Long
Vernon Gholston
Sedrick Ellis
Keith Rivers
Darren McFadden
Rashard Mendenhall
Leodis McKelvin
Ryan Clady

are the only players worth Top 10 picks in this draft. Any team in the Top 10 that picks one of those guys is getting a good player, no questions asked, and potentially a great player.

BaLLiN
04-03-2008, 02:02 PM
Also this draft really doesnt have an elite QB. Ryan is the top QB, those numbers really dont matter to me because he didnt have the same supporting cast as Brady Quinn, most of those guys will be mid to late round picks if even drafted.

Ryan can make the majority of throws required in the NFL, he is more than just a pocket passer, but he is still not WORTH a top 10 pick IMO. However need really changes value.
Their runningback really impresses me though...

toonsterwu
04-03-2008, 02:09 PM
Ryan is the Top QB because this is a weak QB draft. Just because it's a weak QB draft doesn't mean teams have to be morons and take the guy high.

It's why so many teams in the NFL continually suck and miss the boat when it comes draft time.

Ryan isn't worth a Top 10 pick...PERIOD.

Glenn Dorsey
Jake Long
Chris Long
Vernon Gholston
Sedrick Ellis
Keith Rivers
Darren McFadden
Rashard Mendenhall
Leodis McKelvin
Ryan Clady

are the only players worth Top 10 picks in this draft. Any team in the Top 10 that picks one of those guys is getting a good player, no questions asked, and potentially a great player.

I'll disagree with that easily. Irrespective of position, I think Matt Ryan is a top 10 grade. When you factor in position, then Ryan is a possible top 5.

I've made my case before, so this is the short version (even though Ryan is, in terms of how I like the QB's, my 3rd guy) Ryan sees the planes of the field well. He makes the tough intermediate throws, feels the pocket well. He has good arm strength. He has solid mechanics, but also fluid mechanics, which is what you desire. Those are all positive attributes in regards to pro projection. And I managed all that without bringing up the dreaded "I" word (Intangibles). Furthermore, I also did that without bringing up the dreaded "lack of talent argument" (and the argument shouldn't be on Ryan's skill players, but rather on the OL in front of him).

Is he a perfect QB prospect? No. But he's a very good prospect. Will he definitely succeed and will he definitely go high? That's yet to be seen. But value wise, yes, I think he's worth it up there.

thebow305
04-03-2008, 03:28 PM
Regardless of his lovefest for Matt Ryan, your Forum Name is blasphemous!!

Halsey
04-03-2008, 03:45 PM
Stats tell it all. Andre Ware and Tim Couch had great stats.

Woody56
04-03-2008, 04:27 PM
Another thing with Ryan that has to be take into consideration is not one of his skill players will be drafted. The guy didn't exactly have talent around him.

toonsterwu
04-03-2008, 04:28 PM
Another thing with Ryan that has to be take into consideration is not one of his skill players will be drafted. The guy didn't exactly have talent around him.

Somewhat nitpicking, but that's not exactly true. His TE, um, Purvis, should be drafted next year. Overall, yes, the skill talent around him was pretty bad. Worse than, say, Cutler a few years back. On an aside, the offensive line, IMO, was a bigger issue than the lack of skill talent around him.

JagHombre22
04-03-2008, 04:38 PM
why does this guy continue to make errant threads?

katnip
04-03-2008, 04:55 PM
He'll be puttingup derek anderson type numbers with a decent offense and proper coaching. The Jets should get him. I'm tired of Chad's wimpy arm. And Clemens I don't think he will lead us to the playoffs consistenly.

bearsfan_51
04-03-2008, 04:57 PM
Doesn't Kellen Clemens have a very good arm?

katnip
04-03-2008, 04:59 PM
I think he could be a decent to good nfl qb based on his measureables. Don't think he's got the mental to suceed.

ThePudge
04-03-2008, 05:14 PM
I think he could be a decent to good nfl qb based on his measureables. Don't think he's got the mental to suceed.


hahaha This one has to be a joke...

katnip
04-03-2008, 05:16 PM
What? you like him?

neko4
04-03-2008, 05:23 PM
Its not the mental part of his game i question so much as his mentality matched with his skillset.
He's got Brett Favre's brain and Chad Pennington's arm

ThePudge
04-03-2008, 05:33 PM
I do like Matt Ryan. He is very smart and very tough. From an intangibles standpoint he has all you could ask for in a rookie Qb. He's further along mentally than any QB prospect in recent years, including Brady Quinn and Alex Smith. He has experience in a Pro-Style offense (unlike Smith), has all the tools, can make all the throws, and is a proven winner. He is athletic, not a scrambler, but he has an excellent pocket presence and moves around very well back there. If I need to get it done with two minutes left, down by 6, I want the ball in Matt Ryan's hand rather than Brohm's, Henne's, or Flacco's. I think Matt Ryan, though he doesn't have the college production to match, is a much different, but slightly more NFL-ready QB than Brady Quinn.

Remember too that Brady Quinn was regarded unanimously as a Top 5, Top 10 value. He fell because of the teams around him, namely Miami who fell in love with John Beck and Cleveland who was sold on Joe Thomas as a LT. Ryan, in my opinion, shouldn't get out of the Top 5. He's not a freak physically such as JaMarcus Russell, and may lack upside at first glance. However, the two best QB's in the league Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are both similar players. Manning is a bit more intimidating physically, but was a similar player coming out. Brady is very similar to Ryan, Ryan's a bit better as an athlete, both excellent field generals with all the tools, both step up in the clutch (though Brady has really taken off in this department in the NFL), both had their ups and downs in college. Now, I am not saying Ryan will be Manning or Brady, but his mental makeup and leadership skills give him a lot of potential to rise and should give the team that drafts him a lot of hope.

Ryan may not be the most physically talented player in this class, but his mental ability and leadership puts him on a different level. He is smart enough to quickly digest a playbook and start from Day One. His mechanics may need a bit of tweaking, adjusting to the NFL speed can be very tough, but even Peyton Manning took his lumps as a rookie and in his first few seasons. The type of player you may be able to build a franchise around in my opinion.

bearsfan_51
04-03-2008, 05:35 PM
Man you are way too high on Ryan. To even compare him to Peyton Manning is like comparing Michaelangelo to the guy that draws Scooby Doo.

ThePudge
04-03-2008, 05:43 PM
Its not the mental part of his game i question so much as his mentality matched with his skillset.
He's got Brett Favre's brain and Chad Pennington's arm

Also not true. Not sure where these conflicting reports are coming from. Ryan has a relatively strong arm. It's not a cannon (i.e. JaMarcus Russell or Carson Palmer), but he can make all the throws and is more than capable (i.e. Matt Hasselbeck, Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, etc.) People are putting too much into his stats. (Not saying you do, but it's something to note)

http://youtube.com/watch?v=ri1Kl-5YZgY

The famous Matt Ryan drive vs an elite defense in Virginia Tech that probably includes up to seven potential NFL draft picks just this year (Brandon Flowers, Chris Ellis, Xavier Adibi, Vince Hall, Barry Booker, Carlton Powell, D.J Parker) and a couple other big-time performers (namely CB Macho Harris.)

The reason I gave you that clip to watch is because of his throw at 1:36. An across the body, opposite end of the field, pass spanning roughly 50 yards on the run, though he released at the 28 yard line. A brilliant drive that really illustrates his ability to bounce back (threw 2 Int's earlier in the game), shows his excellent confidence & leadership, and his ability to escape pressure.

Addict
04-03-2008, 05:50 PM
Man you are way too high on Ryan. To even compare him to Peyton Manning is like comparing Michaelangelo to the guy that draws Scooby Doo.

... wow are you saying that Michaelangelo is less of an artist than the Scooby Doo drawing guy? Because your order of appearences does indicate that :|

ThePudge
04-03-2008, 05:57 PM
Man you are way too high on Ryan. To even compare him to Peyton Manning is like comparing Michaelangelo to the guy that draws Scooby Doo.

To quote Pro Football Weekly's Nolan Nawrocki, a respected draft analyst.

"Has nearly everything a team could want in a quarterback. Has proven he could drive an offense down the field with very little talent around him, carry an offense on his back and continually thrive in high-pressure situations. Should develop into a franchise quarterback and could be a perennial Pro Bowler. A top-10 cinch who easily could be the first player drafted. Has a similar mental make-up to Peyton Manning and Tom Brady and may be further along in his development at this stage of his career."

I am not going to go as far as to say all that, but I think a lot of people dislike Matt Ryan and are a little too hard on him. Sure, JaMarcus Russell would be drafted ahead of him were you to throw him into this draft, but Ryan has plenty of ability and upside himself.

Mike Mayock also is in love with Matt Ryan, he's been the top player on his board for awhile now. There, however, there seems to be a bit of Boston College bias.

He is also 3rd on Mel Kiper's Big Board. Tied for the 1st Spot in Scouts Inc.'s Big Board (Darren McFadden, Chrise Long, Jake Long, Glenn Dorsey, and he are all graded at 98).

Now, pay attention to the next thing I will say, for I think it's fairly important. I'm not saying these analysts/groups are the be-all end-all, I brought these sources in to illustrate my point, which is as follows: There are plenty of people that are high on Matt Ryan. Men smarter than ourselves. It's prefectly good to have your own opinion, but personally I share the opinion that Ryan is a Top-5 value. I am the only one high on him here at NFLDC.

Thunder&Lightning
04-03-2008, 06:11 PM
youv based you opinion off of stats...

RaiderFan
04-03-2008, 06:16 PM
Matt Ryan is ok, but not Top 20 material in a normal draft, with a Actual elite Graded QB's(ie Eli,Peyton,Jamarcus,Carson)
Sure some teams will reach for need....And they will look like idiots in 5 years most likely.

farfromforgotten
04-03-2008, 06:17 PM
Ryan is the Top QB because this is a weak QB draft. Just because it's a weak QB draft doesn't mean teams have to be morons and take the guy high.

It's why so many teams in the NFL continually suck and miss the boat when it comes draft time.

Ryan isn't worth a Top 10 pick...PERIOD.

Glenn Dorsey
Jake Long
Chris Long
Vernon Gholston
Sedrick Ellis
Keith Rivers
Darren McFadden
Rashard Mendenhall
Leodis McKelvin
Ryan Clady

are the only players worth Top 10 picks in this draft. Any team in the Top 10 that picks one of those guys is getting a good player, no questions asked, and potentially a great player.

Since you like to place so much of an emphasis on stats I will give you a couple of the players you have listed as sure fire top 10 picks above.

Keith Rivers average season in 4 years at USC is 60 tackles and 1.5 sacks per year. He only had 5.5 sacks his entire college career.

Leodis McKelvin average season in 4 years at Troy is 40 tackles and 1 int per year. He only had 4 career ints in college.

Glenn Dorsey had 13 sacks his entire college career.

I will be the first to admit that I use stats to back up my claims about certain players, but I make sure I know what I'm talking about before I post them. Stats dont always tell the whole story.

Addict
04-03-2008, 06:25 PM
Matt Ryan is ok, but not Top 20 material in a normal draft, with a Actual elite Graded QB's(ie Eli,Peyton,Jamarcus,Carson)
Sure some teams will reach for need....And they will look like idiots in 5 years most likely.

Well... that's not sure, Ryan is a pretty good QB so they won't look bad. The chance the Raiders look like idiots for taking Russell is just as present by the way.

bearsfan_51
04-03-2008, 06:30 PM
To quote Pro Football Weekly's Nolan Nawrocki, a respected draft analyst.

"Has nearly everything a team could want in a quarterback. Has proven he could drive an offense down the field with very little talent around him, carry an offense on his back and continually thrive in high-pressure situations. Should develop into a franchise quarterback and could be a perennial Pro Bowler. A top-10 cinch who easily could be the first player drafted. Has a similar mental make-up to Peyton Manning and Tom Brady and may be further along in his development at this stage of his career."

I am not going to go as far as to say all that, but I think a lot of people dislike Matt Ryan and are a little too hard on him. Sure, JaMarcus Russell would be drafted ahead of him were you to throw him into this draft, but Ryan has plenty of ability and upside himself.

Mike Mayock also is in love with Matt Ryan, he's been the top player on his board for awhile now. There, however, there seems to be a bit of Boston College bias.

He is also 3rd on Mel Kiper's Big Board. Tied for the 1st Spot in Scouts Inc.'s Big Board (Darren McFadden, Chrise Long, Jake Long, Glenn Dorsey, and he are all graded at 98).

Now, pay attention to the next thing I will say, for I think it's fairly important. I'm not saying these analysts/groups are the be-all end-all, I brought these sources in to illustrate my point, which is as follows: There are plenty of people that are high on Matt Ryan. Men smarter than ourselves. It's prefectly good to have your own opinion, but personally I share the opinion that Ryan is a Top-5 value. I am the only one high on him here at NFLDC.
A couple of things, neither Mel Kiper, Mike Mayock, or McShay is even remotely close to being as intelligent as I am. But I'm assuming you meant in terms of scouting, and I will grant that, though I think scouting is about as scientific as throwing darts. I also absolutely hate Mike Mayock. He is completely biased in his opinions, says things purely to draw attention to himself, and constantly will back up his ridiculous arguments by saying, "well have you looked at the tape". He acts as if he's the only person that has access to a VCR and an opinion. It's absolutely ridiculous. I've seen Marshall Faulk and Jamie Dukes make him look like a jackass, and that's saying something.

Also, you're also far from the only one high on him here. I'll grant you that the opinion is more negative than positive however.

In terms of Peyton Manning as a prospect I wouldn't even put Ryan in the same ballpark. I wouldn't even put him in the same ballpark as Philip Rivers. I'm not saying that my opinion should be taken as the holy mantra of draft analysis, but I also won't concede for a minute that I'm in the wrong simply because a bunch of over-hyped media gabs say so.

The only thing special about Ryan that I've ever heard from anyone is his "intangibles and leadership", and to me, that's worth the equivalent of a bus pass and a bag of cheetos. People are falling in love with him for all the reasons that a scout should be objective on, and I have yet to see a quantifiable answers as to why he is head and shoulders above the rest of a pretty crappy QB class.

BeerBaron
04-03-2008, 06:33 PM
A couple of things, neither Mel Kiper, Mike Mayock, or McShay is even remotely close to being as intelligent as I am. But I'm assuming you meant in terms of scouting, and I will grant that, though I think scouting is about as scientific as throwing darts. I also absolutely hate Mike Mayock. He is completely biased in his opinions, says things purely to draw attention to himself, and constantly will back up his ridiculous arguments by saying, "well have you looked at the tape". He acts as if he's the only person that has access to a VCR and an opinion. It's absolutely ridiculous. I've seen Marshall Faulk and Jamie Dukes make him look like a jackass, and that's saying something.

Also, you're also far from the only one high on him here. I'll grant you that the opinion is more negative than positive however.

In terms of Peyton Manning as a prospect I wouldn't even put Ryan in the same ballpark. I wouldn't even put him in the same ballpark as Philip Rivers. I'm not saying that my opinion should be taken as the holy mantra of draft analysis, but I also won't concede for a minute that I'm in the wrong simply because a bunch of over-hyped media gabs say so.

The only thing special about Ryan that I've ever heard from anyone is his "intangibles and leadership", and to me, that's worth the equivalent of a bus pass and a bag of cheetos. People are falling in love with him for all the reasons that a scout should be objective on, and I have yet to see a quantifiable answers as to why he is head and shoulders above the rest of a pretty crappy QB class.

temptation.......to.....rant.......against.......r yan.......strong.........must.......resist......

i will say that 51 summed up some of the things i dislike about ryan right there though.

bearsfan_51
04-03-2008, 06:33 PM
I also have, for the record, said that I think Matt Ryan to the Ravens would be a very good pick. They need a quarterback and while he's not elite, he's pretty good, would come at a point in the draft where salaries are not so astronomical (particularly for a quarterback).

Brent
04-03-2008, 06:39 PM
Awesome way to start off here.

toonsterwu
04-03-2008, 07:11 PM
Doesn't Kellen Clemens have a very good arm?

From what I recall, Clemens had better arm velocity than arm strength, so comes down to what you are referencing (not that he had bad arm strength, he had good arm strength as well).

toonsterwu
04-03-2008, 07:12 PM
Its not the mental part of his game i question so much as his mentality matched with his skillset.
He's got Brett Favre's brain and Chad Pennington's arm

That's a bit overboard. Ryan's got far better arm strength than Pennington. He doesn't have Jamarcus Russell arm strength, but he's got far better arm strength than Pennington.

toonsterwu
04-03-2008, 07:22 PM
Well, I guess I'll be defending Ryan again, even though I'm not even high on him.

To suggest that Ryan is simply intangibles and leadership is flawed, in my opinion.

By no means is Matt Ryan a perfect QB prospect. In fact, I think I've noted before that, in a really strong draft at the top, I could see Ryan falling to the mid-first grade wise. This, though, is not a really strong draft at the top.

What does Ryan offer? First off, yes, he needs to improve his decision making. Certainly, a litany of reasons could be put forth about some of his mistakes, but short of it is, he does need to explain his reasons. This, though, does not take away from the fact that Matt Ryan sees the planes of the field real well. That's not something every QB can do. Alex Smith was good in that regards. Bruce Gradkowski was good, but well, he had no arm. Colt Brennan does a good job of it, but well, he's got some other issues to contend with.

Matt Ryan does not have a bad arm. I'm not sure where that came from. Here's a guy that has good arm strength and gets solid velocity on his balls. He also throws a catchable ball. Moreso than any other QB in this draft, Ryan has shown the ability to make the tough throws and to project his ability to make said tough throws at the next level (two similar, but slightly different areas). He's shown the ability to hit the tough outs. He's shown the ability to drive it into the seams.

Ryan also has good footwork. Agility and 40 times for QB's aren't the biggest things to me. Footwork is more important. He's shown a good feel for the pocket, an ability to maintain his vision downfield while going through his reads. Now again, certainly his decision making needs some work, because the reality is, no matter what explanations and reasons his supporters give, he made some bad decisions.

Ryan is projectable. Most people believe that he can probably put on more good weight. What is solid arm strength now could be good arm strength in a few years (not that I am comparing Matt Ryan to Tom Brady overall, but Brady's arm strength entering the league wasn't as good as it is now; same with Ken Dorsey, but granted, that's a far different spectrum, as Dorsey basically went from poor arm strength to decent).

There are definitely positive attributes to Matt Ryan that extend beyond intangibles and leadership.

bearsfan_51
04-03-2008, 08:18 PM
I never said he didn't have other positive attributes, I said that when people state why he is an elite prospect, it usually comes down to vague generalizations like "intagibles" and "leadership", neither of which do I really believe is worth much of anything (Scott, on other hand, has said he believes that is the most important aspect for a QB as I recall).

Ryan has a pretty good arm. Does he have a top 5 arm? Not in my opinion.

So what is pushing him up? The lack of quarterback competition, and the media. What I said was that people like Mayock, McShay, etc., are falling in love with him because of things that, I believe, a scout should not judge a player on. It goes back to the statement that the guy from Draftdaddy made about shaking hands with a prospect and all those "un-measurables" that the media like to talk about.

But he won't go in the top 5 most likely, because I don't think that any teams will fall in love with him for the same reasons. It's happened before though.

etk
04-03-2008, 08:27 PM
Ryan should not be a top 10 pick. Last year he would've been the 3rd QB selected. The year before he would've been the 4th QB selected. The year before that he would've been the 4th QB selected. The year before that he would've been 4th or 5th. In this draft I think he is the 3rd best QB, and a late first candidate.

thebow305
04-03-2008, 08:27 PM
I just love the name of this thread. It makes me smile :)

princefielder28
04-03-2008, 08:28 PM
Ryan should not be a top 10 pick. Last year he would've been the 3rd QB selected. The year before he would've been the 4th QB selected. The year before that he would've been the 4th QB selected. The year before that he would've been 4th or 5th. In this draft I think he is the 3rd best QB, and a late first candidate.

3rd best = correct

toonsterwu
04-03-2008, 09:05 PM
In terms of recent history, I'd place Ryan, when judging at similar reference points

2007 - 2nd (behind Jamarcus)
2006 - 4th. (behind all of the big 3, although that's more of a general board perspective, my own feelings would place him 3rd)
2005 - 1st.
2004 - 3rd (although I, and many others, had Roethlisberger 2nd that year).
2003 - 3rd. (behind Palmer and Leftwich)
2002 - 1st.
2001 - 2nd.
2000 - 1st.

I'm tempted to throw in my 2 cents on how Ryan would compare to 1999 at similar reference points, but that would lead into a huge debate which I don't really care for, which should give away something.

d34ng3l021
04-03-2008, 09:19 PM
Heres my take on Matt Ryan. I am not as qualified as the other people in this thread, but whatever.

At first, I thought Matt Ryan was bad. His interception numbers were high, and he had nothing that stood out, other than his intangibles. Because we used to be a lock to take Matt Ryan, I was pretty upset.

Now the more I think about it, I think Ryan would be a very good pick for us. He is no Russell or Leinart or Cutler, but I like how he would translate to a Pro (his translation looks alot better than alot of other guys). Sure he doesnt have outstanding arm strength, but does he need it? Absolutely not. What he does have is an arm that can deliver a ball quickly. It wouldnt be like Vick's where its too fast, and it won't be like Harrington, where the ball drops to the ground 5 yards before it reachers the receiver. Its very good and helps the receiver alot. Another one of his Pros is the offense he played in. It was very much like a Pro system and he was consistently making great Pro throws. Deep out or comeback. Slants. Thats where its all at in the NFL, not 80 yard bombs. He has shown he can do that consistently well in college, and I expect him to do the same in the NFL. He made those throws so well in college, and thats sometime I like alot out of him.
Along with his accuracy and good arm strength, he has great intangibles and his ability to be a leader is outstanding. Sure his high interception numbers are concerning, but it shows alot about his confidence. You need confidence at the QB position if you are going to get your team the Ws.

I think he actually has alot going for him in the Pros. I dont mind his lack of massive arm strengths at all. He doesnt need to be making 70 or 80 yard bombs. A 20 yard out is fine with me, and Matt Ryan will make that throw 9/10 times to a receiver who will catch it.

His decision making ability is reflected by his interceptions, but what you dont see are the amount of passes he has thrown. His interception ratio is around there with every other QB. Sure its more, but nothing eye popping. I am sure with some good coaching and consistent work with a better cast of WRs and OL, that problem should be fixed.

I actually kind of like him now.

Nitschke-Hawk
04-03-2008, 09:23 PM
Anybody wondering why Ryan's worth a top 10 pick should look at the history of the draft.

The year 2000 was the last time a QB wasn't taken in the top 10.

The only thing keeping that from being the worst QB draft ever is somehow both Marc Bulger and Tom Brady were picked in the 6th round.

TACKLE
04-03-2008, 09:29 PM
Completions:
35
121
263
388

TOTAL: 807

Attempts:
71
195
427
654

TOTAL: 1,347

Yards:
350
1514
2942
4057

TOTAL: 8,863

Completion Percentage:
49.3
62.1
61.6
59.3

AVG: 59.9% (807/1347)

Yards Per Attempt:
4.93
7.76
6.89
6.89

Touchdowns:
2
8
15
31

TOTAL: 56

INT's:
3
5
10
19

TOTAL: 37


Tell me again why he's worth a Top 10 pick? Bottom line, he isn't. If Brady Quinn wasn't worth a Top 10 pick, then this scrub Matt Ryan isn't worth one.

That's such an ingnorant post. It shows your complete lack of understanding of the game of football. I would be willing to bet a lot of money that you have never actually seen Matt Ryan play. To judge a Quarteback or any position for that matter you can't judge solely on stats and then declare a guy is or isn't a Top 10 pick. Here's another stat for you to add to your list: two 10 win seasons. Why don't you turn on your TV on Saturday afternoons from September to November and actually watch some football before you say somebody is "so overrated it's a joke", whatever that means.

Also, you said Brady Quinn was not worth a Top 10 pick which isn't the case either. He didn't fall because he wasn't worth a Top 10 pick, he fell because there were a lot of teams that didn't need to spend their 1st round pick on a new franchise QB. He fell because of need, not because of ability.

Paranoidmoonduck
04-03-2008, 09:32 PM
Matt Ryan is an interesting prospect for me, because the more tape I've been able to watch and the more information I gather on him, the higher my appreciation becomes. This typically isn't the case with me, because when I do re-watch games, I'm looking more for damaging plays more than anything else. Around the end of the season, I kept hearing these amazing things said about Ryan, and I didn't see any real evidence for them. I actually knocked him down my board as a reaction to this, but everything I've seen since has made me eager to rectify this.

He definitely doesn't have elite tools, and in that manner he is a bit of a novelty in the draft process, which has mostly seen those passers with great tools get elevated above those who do not, often ignoring other, more important, factors. This is due mostly to a weak draft and a weak quarterback class, but it is also a welcome change, in my opinion. In the end, having a great arm or great mobility is merely going to help maximize the effectiveness of the decisions you make.

In watching Ryan on the field, a few things become really apparent. First off, the guy sees the whole field very well. This is not small deal, because a lot of recent quarterback prospects who most would consider superior I would consider markedly less able in this department. Even more, Ryan doesn't seem to lock onto receivers all that often. This could partially be due to the fact that, for the most part, Boston College didn't even have one of "those guys" (i.e. receivers worth focusing attention on), but Ryan distributes the ball judiciously.

Second off, the guy is really tough. He isn't overly big or strong, but I've never seen him wilt after taking a shot. Add in the seemingly accurate perception that the guy is both a very hard worker and a good team leader, and it's hard to not get at least a little excited about his pro prospects.

In the end, Matt Ryan is a guy who talks and acts like consummate professional, goes through his progression quickly and finds open receivers very well, and at least has the minimum amount of physical tools you need to succeed in the NFL.

There are definite arguments that can be made about his decision making, although I will say that in watching some of the plays that did result in interceptions or batted balls, they were mistakes you can live with your quarterback making (more daring and less foolhardy).

However, when comparing him to other quarterback prospects in this class, it is evident he is #1. Brian Brohm was never really asked to make the sort of reads Ryan was, and he worked in a drastically better situation. Chad Henne is a bad game manager who gets flustered easily. Joe Flacco didn't even make playcalls to his offensive teammates. I do think that Ryan has been driven up draft boards higher than perhaps I would assert him being deserving of, but that's the manner of the draft and of the position of quarterback.

Staubach12
04-03-2008, 10:04 PM
Football isn't about stats, it's about the game. If you could judge a player by his stats alone, Colt Brennan would go #1.

SKim172
04-03-2008, 11:14 PM
And if you remove the stats completely, then Ryan Leaf, with his size and arm, was the best pick ever.

I'm tired of ranting about Matt Ryan. I look at him and I see a serviceable starter at best and a quality backup at worst. Ignore the stats, watch the tape? Fine.

Pop in his game against Maryland. Or Florida State. Or hell, the Virginia Tech game. Does two minutes of brilliance redeem a horrible performance for 58 minutes of utter suck?

And don't kid yourselves - Matt Ryan sucked the first 58 minutes against Virginia Tech.

And what was Ryan doing in those sucky moments? Playing worse as the game went on. As the lead got bigger and the clock wound down, he was throwing into heavy coverage, lofting jump balls, and unraveling in his judgment. He would try to force deep balls to covered receivers instead of making the short completions, he would dance unnecessarily in the pocket. He showed nothing of the composure that's supposed to be his strength.

If you want to know a player's strengths and weaknesses, you watch those games where they struggle, not when they put up 40 points on a I-AA team. And I lost all faith in Matt Ryan by halftime of the VTech game. Not even two minutes of throwing to wide-open, uncovered receivers waving from the end zone can bring that back.

And that's why I support Brian Brohm. Because this past season, you saw the worst of Brian Brohm on the field, but unlike Ryan, he doesn't crack when he's down by 7, 14, 28 points. He's always consistent, making the completions, choosing the right target, protecting his receivers. He's not Trent Dilfer - he's the guy that will read the right plays and making 69% completion every time.

And by the by, STOP SAYING BC HAS NO TALENT. Jesus, Mayock says one thing and everyone runs with it. BC had five receivers with 45+ catches on the season and only two will be leaving school this season. One doesn't fit well in the pros, and the other's a running back in a deep class - that's why they won't be drafted, not because they're absolute nothings without Ryan.

And on that topic, Mayock and all his kind are completely screwing BC's prospects by proclaiming that statement. Now when people look at Andre Callender, they don't think, "He could be the next Kevin Faulk," they're thinking, "Meh - it was all Ryan."

How much does that suck, to lead your team in catches and still be told it's not enough because Mike Mayock said so?

The Great Jonathan Vilma
04-03-2008, 11:20 PM
wow, this guy should be a scout. He's got it all!! Check out how he uses the stats to make his case! FLAWLESS! Hey everyone, lets listen to this guy who just throws out stats and doesn't use any sort of visual evidence to support his claim!!

Ya, and Mike Mayock sux.....get real

bearsfan_51
04-03-2008, 11:24 PM
Mike Mayock definately does suck.

toonsterwu
04-03-2008, 11:26 PM
Leaving the QB discussion alone for a second (although I think I made a perfectly valid argument without the whole lack of talent argument ... and as noted somewhere, I think the talent argument should be directed towards the OL, where there was talent but miscast ... Chris Ellis absolutely demolished Gosder Cherilus. Cherilus wasn't a LT, and they started a kid at RT who's name slips my mind but he was pretty bad, and the interior wasn't good), this might be the 5th or 6th time that I've seen someone say "Callender and Kevin Faulk" and my only response is, huh? I wish Callender the best, but he's not Kevin Faulk. Callender is a small RB (190?) with poor speed (4.6ish), poor shiftiness, and decent hands. Faulk was a 205 pound RB with a decent speed, good shiftiness and who has shown overall ability and production that was far better than Callender's. Look, whether or not Callender gets drafted isn't the point of this post in particular. This is more a post for Kevin Faulk. People forget that Faulk was, at one point, considered a possible first round prospect before his senior season. I think people are easily forgetting how well thought of Kevin Faulk was at one point in time, and what a big prospect Kevin Faulk was coming out of HS.

ThePudge
04-03-2008, 11:41 PM
Does two minutes of brilliance redeem a horrible performance for 58 minutes of utter suck?

And don't kid yourselves - Matt Ryan sucked the first 58 minutes against Virginia Tech.


I wanted to comment on this. Yes, it most certainly does redeem a horrible performance for 58 minutes. I watched that game, Ryan didn't play well at all. I won't get in to the weather, the Offensive Line, or the lack of a serviceable running game for those 58 minutes. So, I will let you have your point that he sucked.

But his will-power, his leadership, his confidence never left him. He was able to pull it together and move a formerly anemic offense down the field at Virginia Tech in a hostile environment, against a good defense, in rainy conditions, and with the Offensive Line play still not helping him out (had to make most of his throws out of the pocket.) This is what separates Matt Ryan from a guy like Rex Grossman. He could have easily given up, he was having a poor game, nothing was going his way, but he came up in the clutch when it mattered the most.

Matt Ryan won that game for his team and those two minutes far eclipse his problems in those first 58 minutes. Boston College had no business being in that game against Virginia Tech up in Blacksburg. That was one of the most gutsy performances I've ever seen. I was rooting against BC, against Matt Ryan, but for God's sake, give the man what he is due!

MidwayMonster31
04-04-2008, 12:01 AM
While we're kicking the troll's corpse.
The Florida State game raised much bigger concerns for me about Ryan than the Virginia Tech game. The 'Noles could attack him up the middle and he handled the pressure terribly. He could never set his feet in the Florida State game or the Virginia Tech game.
He didn't have any good skill position players around him, so we don't know much about his vertical passing game. Baltimore will definitely be a better fit for him than Atlanta, because I think he is a very good prospect, but a weak QB class is pushing him up the boards.

bearsfan_51
04-04-2008, 12:39 AM
This is what separates Matt Ryan from a guy like Rex Grossman.
Well, now that we've established he's better than Rex Grossman, let's give him a 30 million dollar signing bonus.

thebow305
04-04-2008, 02:29 AM
I just think that it's very sad this year. I think Mayock is losing all his credibility with all draftniks out there. For even the casual draft fan, Mayock seems to be making a fool out of himself this year. He is my favorite draft analyst by far, and when it comes down to it, he studies more film and knows more about the draft than any other draft analyst out there, no question about it. He is also usually very accurate with his mocks every year, along with surprise picks. His BC bias and lovefest for Matt Ryan this year is really blinding him though and IMO he needs to drop it and get back to what he does best. Ryan is NOT the best player in this year's draft that's very easy to see. He's probably not even a top 5 talent either. As a matter of fact, he is an above average passer in a BAD QB class and is benefitting from that very much so. In last year's draft he would have been a 2nd rounder. I have no doubt about that. It would have been 1. Jamarcus Russell 2. Brady Quinn 3. Matt Ryan and that's that.

Listen, I am a HUGE Canes fan, and Calais is my favorite prospect in this year's draft, with Kenny a close second. And you don't see me parading around here now saying they are AMAZING and should go #1 and #2 in the draft. No, I realize they are late 1st rounders at best. I may have said that before the season, but that is when their stock's were at the highest, but after their poor seasons, I realize where they are at now when it comes to the draft. It should be the same for Mayock with Ryan. Mayock needs to realize this and stop being so damned biased. Come on Mike, you're better than that!

BamaFalcon59
04-04-2008, 05:05 PM
I just think that it's very sad this year. I think Mayock is losing all his credibility with all draftniks out there. For even the casual draft fan, Mayock seems to be making a fool out of himself this year. He is my favorite draft analyst by far, and when it comes down to it, he studies more film and knows more about the draft than any other draft analyst out there, no question about it. He is also usually very accurate with his mocks every year, along with surprise picks. His BC bias and lovefest for Matt Ryan this year is really blinding him though and IMO he needs to drop it and get back to what he does best. Ryan is NOT the best player in this year's draft that's very easy to see. He's probably not even a top 5 talent either. As a matter of fact, he is an above average passer in a BAD QB class and is benefitting from that very much so. In last year's draft he would have been a 2nd rounder. I have no doubt about that. It would have been 1. Jamarcus Russell 2. Brady Quinn 3. Matt Ryan and that's that.

Listen, I am a HUGE Canes fan, and Calais is my favorite prospect in this year's draft, with Kenny a close second. And you don't see me parading around here now saying they are AMAZING and should go #1 and #2 in the draft. No, I realize they are late 1st rounders at best. I may have said that before the season, but that is when their stock's were at the highest, but after their poor seasons, I realize where they are at now when it comes to the draft. It should be the same for Mayock with Ryan. Mayock needs to realize this and stop being so damned biased. Come on Mike, you're better than that!

He would have went round one, at latest to the Baltimore Ravens. Also, some think Ryan is a better prospect than Brady Quinn was. I think the fans just dislike him. He is a fine quarterback, not sure where the hate comes from.

Turtlepower
04-04-2008, 05:06 PM
I just think that it's very sad this year. I think Mayock is losing all his credibility with all draftniks out there. For even the casual draft fan, Mayock seems to be making a fool out of himself this year. He is my favorite draft analyst by far, and when it comes down to it, he studies more film and knows more about the draft than any other draft analyst out there, no question about it. He is also usually very accurate with his mocks every year, along with surprise picks. His BC bias and lovefest for Matt Ryan this year is really blinding him though and IMO he needs to drop it and get back to what he does best. Ryan is NOT the best player in this year's draft that's very easy to see. He's probably not even a top 5 talent either. As a matter of fact, he is an above average passer in a BAD QB class and is benefitting from that very much so. In last year's draft he would have been a 2nd rounder. I have no doubt about that. It would have been 1. Jamarcus Russell 2. Brady Quinn 3. Matt Ryan and that's that.

Listen, I am a HUGE Canes fan, and Calais is my favorite prospect in this year's draft, with Kenny a close second. And you don't see me parading around here now saying they are AMAZING and should go #1 and #2 in the draft. No, I realize they are late 1st rounders at best. I may have said that before the season, but that is when their stock's were at the highest, but after their poor seasons, I realize where they are at now when it comes to the draft. It should be the same for Mayock with Ryan. Mayock needs to realize this and stop being so damned biased. Come on Mike, you're better than that!

Weren't you saying for a good portion for the year that the Dolphins should take Campbell at #1?

adamprez2003
04-04-2008, 05:43 PM
Completions:
35
121
263
388

TOTAL: 807

Attempts:
71
195
427
654

TOTAL: 1,347

Yards:
350
1514
2942
4057

TOTAL: 8,863

Completion Percentage:
49.3
62.1
61.6
59.3

AVG: 59.9% (807/1347)

Yards Per Attempt:
4.93
7.76
6.89
6.89

Touchdowns:
2
8
15
31

TOTAL: 56

INT's:
3
5
10
19

TOTAL: 37


Tell me again why he's worth a Top 10 pick? Bottom line, he isn't. If Brady Quinn wasn't worth a Top 10 pick, then this scrub Matt Ryan isn't worth one.

Wow you joined NFLDC just to trash Mayock and Ryan. LOL. Relax man, its not like they slept with your girlfriend or anything

adamprez2003
04-04-2008, 05:49 PM
Man you are way too high on Ryan. To even compare him to Peyton Manning is like comparing Michaelangelo to the guy that draws Scooby Doo. A better comparison is a poor man's peyton manning. People forget peyton manning wasnt PEYTON MANNING when he came out. Its the reason alot of people had Ryan Leaf rated ahead of him. Leaf was the guy with the cannon arm, the number prototype body, etc...Read his scouting reports coming out of college. Decent arm, can make all the throws, average athlete, smart, great intangibles. What seperated Manning from Ryan however was the sick intereception rate Peyton had, less than 1%. In almost every other category they are similar however (coming out of college that is)

adamprez2003
04-04-2008, 06:02 PM
Matt Ryan is an interesting prospect for me, because the more tape I've been able to watch and the more information I gather on him, the higher my appreciation becomes. This typically isn't the case with me, because when I do re-watch games, I'm looking more for damaging plays more than anything else. Around the end of the season, I kept hearing these amazing things said about Ryan, and I didn't see any real evidence for them. I actually knocked him down my board as a reaction to this, but everything I've seen since has made me eager to rectify this.

He definitely doesn't have elite tools, and in that manner he is a bit of a novelty in the draft process, which has mostly seen those passers with great tools get elevated above those who do not, often ignoring other, more important, factors. This is due mostly to a weak draft and a weak quarterback class, but it is also a welcome change, in my opinion. In the end, having a great arm or great mobility is merely going to help maximize the effectiveness of the decisions you make.

In watching Ryan on the field, a few things become really apparent. First off, the guy sees the whole field very well. This is not small deal, because a lot of recent quarterback prospects who most would consider superior I would consider markedly less able in this department. Even more, Ryan doesn't seem to lock onto receivers all that often. This could partially be due to the fact that, for the most part, Boston College didn't even have one of "those guys" (i.e. receivers worth focusing attention on), but Ryan distributes the ball judiciously.

Second off, the guy is really tough. He isn't overly big or strong, but I've never seen him wilt after taking a shot. Add in the seemingly accurate perception that the guy is both a very hard worker and a good team leader, and it's hard to not get at least a little excited about his pro prospects.

In the end, Matt Ryan is a guy who talks and acts like consummate professional, goes through his progression quickly and finds open receivers very well, and at least has the minimum amount of physical tools you need to succeed in the NFL.

There are definite arguments that can be made about his decision making, although I will say that in watching some of the plays that did result in interceptions or batted balls, they were mistakes you can live with your quarterback making (more daring and less foolhardy).

However, when comparing him to other quarterback prospects in this class, it is evident he is #1. Brian Brohm was never really asked to make the sort of reads Ryan was, and he worked in a drastically better situation. Chad Henne is a bad game manager who gets flustered easily. Joe Flacco didn't even make playcalls to his offensive teammates. I do think that Ryan has been driven up draft boards higher than perhaps I would assert him being deserving of, but that's the manner of the draft and of the position of quarterback. Good post. I had the same type of evolution with Ryan. When I first started watching the guy I was thinking nice QB, nothing special, maybe a 2nd or 3rd round prospect. But the more I watched (eventually 7 games) the more he grew on me. I rarely get really excited by a QB and never, I repeat never, do I get as interested in a QB who has a "decent" arm. I am one of those guys that wants to see a howitzer on a top ten QB. I didnt like Quinn, I didnt like Leinart, I didnt even like Russell though he had the howitzer I love to see. The last QB that I was high on was Cutler. But having said that, there is something about Ryan that is exceptional and I dont know how else to put it but he's just a winner. I dont think Ive ever had that as the reason a prospect is going to be very good but I guess there's a first for everything. There is omething about this guy that you will miss if you only see one or two games. You really have to see him the entire season almost to really get what he's all about. In a weird way, even though they are completely different athletes he reminds me of Bernie Kosar

SKim172
04-04-2008, 06:13 PM
But having said that, there is something about Ryan that is exceptional and I dont know how else to put it but he's just a winner.

See, personally, I'm not satisfied with that explanation, for Ryan or anyone else. "I don't know what, but he's a winner"? How does that translate into the NFL? I see a lot of prospects who get that on their scouting report - some translate to winners in the NFL, but I don't think it had anything to do with their winning in college.

How come John David Booty doesn't get that on his scouting report? He won plenty of games at USC.

Saying "I don't know what" is the athletic equivalent of the artistic phrase "Je ne sais quoi." In fact, in French, that's precisely what it means. And in the art world, it's used by critics as a way of saying that they like something, but they don't know why.

So transfer that to the sports world: it means you, personally, like Matt Ryan. That's fine. That's completely okay. But it shouldn't be used as a positive on Ryan's scouting report.

adamprez2003
04-04-2008, 06:22 PM
See, personally, I'm not satisfied with that explanation, for Ryan or anyone else. "I don't know what, but he's a winner"? How does that translate into the NFL? I see a lot of prospects who get that on their scouting report - some translate to winners in the NFL, but I don't think it had anything to do with their winning in college.

How come John David Booty doesn't get that on his scouting report? He won plenty of games at USC.

Saying "I don't know what" is the athletic equivalent of the artistic phrase "Je ne sais quoi." In fact, in French, that's precisely what it means. And in the art world, it's used by critics as a way of saying that they like something, but they don't know why.

So transfer that to the sports world: it means you, personally, like Matt Ryan. That's fine. That's completely okay. But it shouldn't be used as a positive on Ryan's scouting report. Oh its not like I dont have a list of reasons. Its not as simplistic as that. The reasons have been stated by other posters on this thread far more eloquently than I could. I'm just saying that for every QB there is usuaully one sentence you put at the top to describe why you would take this guy. For example Joe Flacco "What an arm", Cutler same thing. But with Ryan it really is the intangibles that everyone talks of. I'm just summing it up that the guy is a winner rather than writing a half page synopsis of everything he does well. Bernie Kosar was the same. Try coming up with a one sentence description of why you should have drafted Bernie Kosar

toonsterwu
04-04-2008, 06:24 PM
That's fine. I can buy it. Intangibles can only go so far.

That said, I'm wondering what your response is to (random order)

a) Ryan's footwork/pocket presence is good
b) Ryan's ability to see the different planes of the field is good
c) Ryan's solid, but fluid, mechanics is a positive
d) Ryan's arm strength is solid, and some suggest it can get better
e) Ryan throws a catchable ball, good placement and solid velocity
f) Ryan can make the tough outs, the challenging intermediate throws

Certainly there are flaws. The main ones people note are

a) His inconsistent deep ball - but this is certainly an area that can be improved with work. It's not as if he lacks the arm strength.

b) His decision making -definitely something that can improve, although if you watch the games, he actually has a very fluid understanding of the field.

IowaJag
04-04-2008, 06:29 PM
That's fine. I can buy it. Intangibles can only go so far.

That said, I'm wondering what your response is to (random order)

a) Ryan's footwork/pocket presence is good
b) Ryan's ability to see the different planes of the field is good
c) Ryan's solid, but fluid, mechanics is a positive
d) Ryan's arm strength is solid, and some suggest it can get better
e) Ryan throws a catchable ball, good placement and solid velocity
f) Ryan can make the tough outs, the challenging intermediate throws

Certainly there are flaws. The main ones people note are

a) His inconsistent deep ball - but this is certainly an area that can be improved with work. It's not as if he lacks the arm strength.

b) His decision making -definitely something that can improve, although if you watch the games, he actually has a very fluid understanding of the field.

I agree on all the positives. But, some of the negatives you point out, however I do not see as BAD (in the long run). Im sure as you know, not ALL teams run a down the field pass happy offense. His intermediate near perfection would be a great asset to a team lacking a true #1 WR. Obviously, he would be awfull in a Colts O, and/or 2000 Rams O. His decision making I see as immaturity, not a bad thing. Something that can improve, sure. But, I see it as a young man trying to make plays and score TD's no matter what it takes, alla Brett Favre.

adamprez2003
04-04-2008, 06:37 PM
That's fine. I can buy it. Intangibles can only go so far.

That said, I'm wondering what your response is to (random order)

a) Ryan's footwork/pocket presence is good
b) Ryan's ability to see the different planes of the field is good
c) Ryan's solid, but fluid, mechanics is a positive
d) Ryan's arm strength is solid, and some suggest it can get better
e) Ryan throws a catchable ball, good placement and solid velocity
f) Ryan can make the tough outs, the challenging intermediate throws

Certainly there are flaws. The main ones people note are

a) His inconsistent deep ball - but this is certainly an area that can be improved with work. It's not as if he lacks the arm strength.

b) His decision making -definitely something that can improve, although if you watch the games, he actually has a very fluid understanding of the field.

I think you have to go back to his junior year when he had half the interceptions but was playing more conservative. Remember Jagodzinksi came in and told Ryan he wanted him to be more agressive. Still he has a flaw reading underneath coverage. To me, the thing that makes or breaks him as a top five pick is the interview teams will have with him trying to get into his head and figuring out why he has a problem with that. If you feel that you can correct the underneath read then I think he has enough to go with top 5. If you cant really get a good answer to that you should probably pass on him. To me it seems correctable but I'm not the guy signing a 30 million dollar check. As to the deep ball I think he throws a pretty good fade. Some debate on that but he has no receivers to throw to deep. I'm sure the personell workouts concentrated on that to an extent. Once again the edge the pros have over us amateurs lol

IowaJag
04-04-2008, 06:41 PM
Something I thought of when everyone was saying a area of strengh is the fade is the new rule. How effective are fades going to be when a DB can hold a WR in the air and carry him out of the endzone. I see this being a rule that will only last a year or two..

adamprez2003
04-04-2008, 06:48 PM
Something I thought of when everyone was saying a area of strengh is the fade is the new rule. How effective are fades going to be when a DB can hold a WR in the air and carry him out of the endzone. I see this being a rule that will only last a year or two.. good point. i think the rule is going to creat a ton of unintended consequences

IowaJag
04-04-2008, 06:55 PM
Imagine a WR goes up for a ball and a DB catches him, and another DB helps to carry the WR twenty feet to the sidelines and lets him go. If you want to see outrage...Youve found it.

BamaFalcon59
04-04-2008, 07:03 PM
I think you have to go back to his junior year when he had half the interceptions but was playing more conservative. Remember Jagodzinksi came in and told Ryan he wanted him to be more agressive. Still he has a flaw reading underneath coverage. To me, the thing that makes or breaks him as a top five pick is the interview teams will have with him trying to get into his head and figuring out why he has a problem with that. If you feel that you can correct the underneath read then I think he has enough to go with top 5. If you cant really get a good answer to that you should probably pass on him. To me it seems correctable but I'm not the guy signing a 30 million dollar check. As to the deep ball I think he throws a pretty good fade. Some debate on that but he has no receivers to throw to deep. I'm sure the personell workouts concentrated on that to an extent. Once again the edge the pros have over us amateurs lol

Not sure he has a problem with the underneath passes. He knows where his receivers are at all times, and disects the blitz with quick reads. Accurate and all. Watch the ACC Championship game against Virginia Tech., it was silly what he did to us with the short passing game. Especially in the first half.

IowaJag
04-04-2008, 07:06 PM
I'll sum up my opinion. Is the best QB in the draft RIGHT NOW. I can see Henne or Flacco being better in the long run. But, hes a good QB, but not worth a top 10 selection. First round, yes. Elite, no.

adamprez2003
04-04-2008, 07:45 PM
I'll sum up my opinion. Is the best QB in the draft RIGHT NOW. I can see Henne or Flacco being better in the long run. But, hes a good QB, but not worth a top 10 selection. First round, yes. Elite, no. Agree with Flacco. Disagree on Henne. I just think Henne will always be a disaster in the pocket when under pressure. He's going to look like a million dollars if he can have Tom Brady time but get an ounce of pressure on that guy and I think he's going to fold. Could be wrong on him but I dont trust his pocket presence one bit

adamprez2003
04-04-2008, 07:49 PM
Not sure he has a problem with the underneath passes. He knows where his receivers are at all times, and disects the blitz with quick reads. Accurate and all. Watch the ACC Championship game against Virginia Tech., it was silly what he did to us with the short passing game. Especially in the first half. He loses sight of the middle linebacker and short safety at times. Look at the bowl game against Michigan State. The other picks for the most part didnt bother me since alot of times he gave the receiver a chance to make a play on the ball and his receivers almost always failed to come up with it. About half the interceptions Ive seen from Ryan were either all or in part the fault of the receivers. The other half fell on Ryan's shoulders although some were due to trying to make a play and werent the bonhead variety like someone else noted

BBIB
04-04-2008, 09:14 PM
You do realize that almost everyone has Ryan as the top QB in the draft and a top 10 pick. Even the most negative Ryan supporter almost acknowledges that his firewall is Baltimore.

And as for his value and why he's a top 10 pick and a top 5 value for most people, part of the equation is about how a player projects to the NFL. I'm not even a huge Ryan fan (Flacco's my personal favorite), but Ryan projects well to the NFL and he's the most ready of all the QB's. Furthermore, this is a draft where the top is relatively weak overall.


The fact that he's such a consensus top 5-10 pick is the reason why it's a joke.

A player being this hyped up based on unquantifiable reasons is unprecedented.

His entire average combo of body of work, decision making skills, and physical tools is ignored because people are saying he has intangibles.


Like those intangibles completely negate all the tangibles that he is lacking in.


He's the most NFL ready QB to throw INTs and lots of them.


He will be a colossal bust and it will not be hindsight by those who see through the media hype machine.


This is the most overrated prospect ever.


At least guys like Bush put up numbers. Even Ryan Leaf had physical tools and production. Ryan is one of a kind in terms of being overrated.

BBIB
04-04-2008, 09:20 PM
I wanted to comment on this. Yes, it most certainly does redeem a horrible performance for 58 minutes. I watched that game, Ryan didn't play well at all. I won't get in to the weather, the Offensive Line, or the lack of a serviceable running game for those 58 minutes. So, I will let you have your point that he sucked.

But his will-power, his leadership, his confidence never left him. He was able to pull it together and move a formerly anemic offense down the field at Virginia Tech in a hostile environment, against a good defense, in rainy conditions, and with the Offensive Line play still not helping him out (had to make most of his throws out of the pocket.) This is what separates Matt Ryan from a guy like Rex Grossman. He could have easily given up, he was having a poor game, nothing was going his way, but he came up in the clutch when it mattered the most.

Matt Ryan won that game for his team and those two minutes far eclipse his problems in those first 58 minutes. Boston College had no business being in that game against Virginia Tech up in Blacksburg. That was one of the most gutsy performances I've ever seen. I was rooting against BC, against Matt Ryan, but for God's sake, give the man what he is due!

Yeah 2 minutes against Prevent Defense w/o Vince Hall who would have been in position to pick off that ridiculous ill advised pass (like he did in rematch), proves Matt Ryan is a top 5 pick.

Ryan is a joke. In half of his games with 15+ attempts in school he fails to record more TDs than INTs.

What separates Grossman from Ryan is that Grossman actually has a great arm.


Ryan combined poor decision making with average arm strength. And even Grossman took better care of the football in school than Ryan.

adamprez2003
04-04-2008, 09:38 PM
Yeah 2 minutes against Prevent Defense w/o Vince Hall who would have been in position to pick off that ridiculous ill advised pass (like he did in rematch), proves Matt Ryan is a top 5 pick.

Ryan is a joke. In half of his games with 15+ attempts in school he fails to record more TDs than INTs.

What separates Grossman from Ryan is that Grossman actually has a great arm.


Ryan combined poor decision making with average arm strength. And even Grossman took better care of the football in school than Ryan. The VTech defense had 7 future pros and the BC offense had maybe 4? Think there's a mismatch there?

BamaFalcon59
04-04-2008, 10:05 PM
The VTech defense had 7 future pros and the BC offense had maybe 4? Think there's a mismatch there?

Nine future pros on Virginia Tech's defense.

Vince Hall
Xavier Adibi
Macho Harris
Brandon Flowers
Chris Ellis
Carlton Powell
Barry Booker
Kam Chancellor
DJ Parker

SenorGato
04-04-2008, 11:37 PM
I like, but don't love Ryan. Honestly, the best QB prospect since Palmer was Cutler, and it's going to take someone special to pass him. When I first saw Ryan I thought "Matt Hasselback." I'm not a fan of Ryan's deep ball at all. I think if a coach can calm his gunslinger BS, he'd be very good in one of those Chiefs/Chargers/Seahawks/Eagles/Pats pre-'07 type passing games.

That said:

A top-10 cinch who easily could be the first player drafted. Has a similar mental make-up to Peyton Manning and Tom Brady and may be further along in his development at this stage of his career."

Maybe Brady, but there won't be a QB prospect more prepared for the pros than Peyton Manning for a looooooong time.

BlindSite
04-05-2008, 02:15 AM
Matt Ryan is a better prospect than Russel was a year ago.

toonsterwu
04-05-2008, 03:33 AM
The fact that he's such a consensus top 5-10 pick is the reason why it's a joke.

A player being this hyped up based on unquantifiable reasons is unprecedented.

His entire average combo of body of work, decision making skills, and physical tools is ignored because people are saying he has intangibles.


Like those intangibles completely negate all the tangibles that he is lacking in.


He's the most NFL ready QB to throw INTs and lots of them.


He will be a colossal bust and it will not be hindsight by those who see through the media hype machine.


This is the most overrated prospect ever.


At least guys like Bush put up numbers. Even Ryan Leaf had physical tools and production. Ryan is one of a kind in terms of being overrated.

I'm wondering what you have to say to my argument on his tangibles being worthy. (from above post, shortened version)

That said, I'm wondering what your response is to (random order)

a) Ryan's footwork/pocket presence is good
b) Ryan's ability to see the different planes of the field is good
c) Ryan's solid, but fluid, mechanics is a positive
d) Ryan's arm strength is solid, and some suggest it can get better
e) Ryan throws a catchable ball, good placement and solid velocity
f) Ryan can make the tough outs, the challenging intermediate throws

TAMBA is HUNGRY!!!!
04-05-2008, 09:48 AM
If Matt Ryan was in that 2004 class, he would be picked between Big Ben and J.P. Losman, not sure but it would be somewhere between 11-23. And that's where Ryan should be picked.

619
04-05-2008, 09:56 AM
Matt Ryan is a better prospect than Russel was a year ago.

No comment to your stupidity.

BlindSite
04-05-2008, 07:36 PM
No comment to your stupidity.

People forget how big the questions behind the mental status or Jamarcus Russel and the fact that before his final season in College he almost didn't win the starting job.

Matt Ryan has been intangibles than Russel's been able to show.

90/100 for intangibles
65/100 for physical ability

Russel is more

50/100 intangibles
100/100 for physical ability

That's why he went higher than Quinn, which I still don't think was the right option.

SchizophrenicBatman
04-06-2008, 03:28 AM
I've stayed quiet on the Ryan debate for a while now. Well ok, I was quieted on all debate for a month for other reasons, but this in particular I wouldve stayed away from anyway. Because I was hating on him before it got cool, and once it got cool, it got ridiculous. However, the initial backlash seems to have subsided some by those more acquainted with Ryan, so I figure it's time to re-enter the fray.

With that said, Matt Ryan is not a bad QB prospect. In fact, I see what people like about him and I'd probably like him a good deal too if he wasn't the consensus #1 QB of this class, and in some minds, a top 5 talent.

He has the IT factor, and to some extent I view this differently than the all-encompassing buzzword "intangibles," but it is in definition an intangible. To me, it's easiest to spot in MLBs. Guys who just have an elite feel for the game, knowing what to do and when to do it. Before I go on, this is NOT the "gamer" thing or the "makes big plays in big games" praise. I'm not excited by Jamie Silva, just as I wasn't excited by Jon Abbate. What it is, is why I was all over DeMeco Ryans' nuts a couple years ago and why I was all over Willis even before his 40. Another guy who I felt this from the first time I watched him was Richard Marshall. I'm not doing this to gloat (because I have been wrong on a great deal of players as well), but rather to give you an idea of what I'm speaking of. Go back and watch the college film on those players, hell even the highlight reels will work. If you want something more present, a guy I get that vibe from this year is Dwight Lowery. At MLB, try Curtis Lofton

If you're looking for a point from the above paragraph, it's that there's a reason Ryans and Marshall lasted until the second round (though Ryans was completely ridiculous - shouldve been a late first at worst). And there's a reason Lowery is projected around the 5th. They have this knack about them you can't ignore, but they have their flaws as well.

Now with the intangible factor out of the way:



That said, I'm wondering what your response is to (random order)

a) Ryan's footwork/pocket presence is good
b) Ryan's ability to see the different planes of the field is good
c) Ryan's solid, but fluid, mechanics is a positive
d) Ryan's arm strength is solid, and some suggest it can get better
e) Ryan throws a catchable ball, good placement and solid velocity
f) Ryan can make the tough outs, the challenging intermediate throws

Certainly there are flaws. The main ones people note are

a) His inconsistent deep ball - but this is certainly an area that can be improved with work. It's not as if he lacks the arm strength.

b) His decision making -definitely something that can improve, although if you watch the games, he actually has a very fluid understanding of the field.

A) Conceded, he moves well in the pocket and as I praised him for before, he feels his way around (in this case, pressure) well. One complaint I have about him, however, is that he is not afraid to throw off his back foot or when he's off balance. I don't necessarily view this is a bad thing, but it's just not something I'm used to seeing in golden boy prospects when they come out. It's more of a trait you see in the UDFAs like Romo and Delhomme. The closest you get with a recent high 1st rounder is Roethlisberger I suppose, and to a much lesser extent, Cutler.

B) I agree with you to an extent here, but I'm not sure how much of an affect this should have. The first time you explained this - and for good reason, as I am sure there could be some vagueness in its pure explanation - you stated the last two quarterbacks to do this well coming out were Alex Smith and, I believe (correct me if I'm wrong, memory is lost a bit here), Aaron Rodgers. While each has their own set of flaws unique to them and not Ryan, this hasn't helped them overcome much early in their careers. In fairness to Rodgers, he hasn't played, but there's a reason no one touched him until the Packers. I actually liked Smith a good deal coming out, so again, I'm not sure this persuades me. Obviously, there are many NFL quarterbacks (most of which possess the top tier) who currently possess this trait, but I don't see it as a dealbreaker. I'd need more time (and study) to figure out why, but it's either because it can be learned easily under the right tutelage, or because it's a benchmark, not a selling point.

C) Again, is this a benchmark or a selling point? Given the way Andre Woodson has been treated this offseason, I'd go with the former. Personally, I'm not a big stickler on mechanics to begin with, unless it's something really awkward or the combination of a short QB and a low release point. I do agree with you that, while in the flow of the game, his mechanics are very fluid and adaptive. When he sets and throws, he looks a little deliberate to me, but I don't view that as a big issue. In fact, someone told me Troy Smith's motion was too mechanical last offseason and, while I didn't disagree, I didn't understand what difference it made.

D) I've never contested this, and I've never understood those who did. Matt Ryan's arm is fine, and while he probably can't throw the ball 80 yards from his knees, I'm not sure why exactly he should have to. To quote a cliche, he "can make all the NFL throws." He does a particularly good job of getting the ball to the sidelines (be it on an out or otherwise) with the right amount of zip on it. I don't have an issue with Ryan's arm, and I don't think I'd like him any more if he had Kyle Boller's attached instead.

E) I believe I covered this some above. He throws the ball at the right velocity when he is capable (IE when he isnt throwing crossfield off his back foot). This again traces back to my benchmark or selling point question.

F) Whoops, well I guess I took out both E and F in D. Either way, yes I agree. This question is, why are we asking this to begin with? Shouldn't QBs who can't do this be a massive outlier and widely panned if they don't stand out in some other fashion? Is this year's competition so weak that we're resorting to "he throws the out well?" Wait, don't answer that. I forgot that Chad Henne is emerging as the consensus #2

As for a2, I don't see this as a huge issue with Ryan. I actually have more of a problem with Flacco's deep ball, and he's got one of the better arms we've seen in a while.

b2) Well, this is the big issue isn't it? Here's the thing - it's not just the number of interceptions that bother me with Ryan. Results based analysis is inherently flawed. Rather, when I watch him play, I see a fearlessness which suggests he'll never worry about (or consciously attempt to correct) throwing up that number of INTs. It's why I compare him to Delhomme and, I assume, why you compare him to Romo. I don't necessarily view this as a complete killer to his status as a prospect (as some others do) but I find it exceptionally strange in a prospect as widely loved as Ryan. It's somewhat conflicting for me, because I enjoy watching QBs like this play; I appreciate the fearlessness, but I'm just not acquainted to seeing a top pick have this trait. For that very reason, I assume it's not one that is appreciated.

In the end, I really do not see what stands out about Matt Ryan. As you pointed out, he meets all the standards, and does a few things very well, though nothing important exceptionally. Here's the final breakdown:

+ Won
+ Intangibles
+ Size
+ Doesn't have a critical flaw

- Completion percentage
- Doesn't mind throwing it up for grabs
- Arm is more than adequate, but is not good enough to throw the ball up for grabs all the time

Weighing intangibles is the problem I suppose, but for that reason if you remove it (and winning for that matter) you're left with size and that "he can make all the throws, is good mechanically and throws the out well" for his pluses. The size thing bothers me about him as well. It's the reason I haven't liked him from the start. Dating back to last year everyone wanted him to do well because he has "the look" of an NFL QB. I find this a dangerous course to follow and while I'm probably off on a tangent, it's something you find in baseball with scouts giving certain players too many chances or undeserved ones to begin with. All based on "the good face" like we're basing this on how marketable they are.

So, removing size as well, you're left with a guy who's just good enough in many facets. Even adding size back in, he doesn't stand out in any aspect. He's not huge, and certainly doesn't shed tacklers a la Big Ben, ie he's got prototypical size, but it's just a plus, not plus plus. And we've been through every other aspect of his game. What I'm left with is a guy who, at the extremes, doesn't have anything going against him (other than decision making) or anything going for him (besides intangibles). As I opened, this doesn't make him a bad prospect. But does it make him an elite one?

Just out of curiosity, what separates Matt Ryan from a guy like Matt Moore? Was it the extra year of exposure? The wins? The intangibles? What? In retrospect, Moore going undrafted was a mistake by the NFL, but he was certainly not a first round prospect by any measure (I believe the highest praise was Jaws, who said he was the 3rd best QB. Any two bit hack couldve said he was good, even Reggie McNeal can say he was rated the #1 QB of his draft by someone, yet Moore wasn't). Now, I'm not saying Moore is close to equaling Ryan when he came out, I'm saying they look extremely similar to me in certain aspects and that in the other's shoes their situations could be reversed.

I think the problem is not that the NFL has made a mistake in recognizing Matt Ryan as a desirable QB. It's that they don't recognize what a desirable QB should be (in other words, NOT Chad Henne) and therefore don't have a proper evaluation line with guys that are. Ryan should not be a top 5 pick, and Moore should not have been undrafted.

BamaFalcon59
04-06-2008, 09:34 AM
I have given my opinion on Matt Ryan many times. Tough comparison, I think. I'll go outside the box and say a rich man's Jake Plummer. He has better size, and a better arm. But I see some similarities. I think they both have sneaky mobility, even if Plummer's speed was better Ryan moves very well. They both throw on the run very well. Sometimes get risky with the ball. Get overconfident with their arms. Throw off their back feet. Good leaders. Clutch late in the game. Better deep ball than arm strength. Plummer had a mediocre arm but his deep ball was very good. They might both struggle with their first team, also known as the team that drafts them. Never a very, very high completion percentage. I think Ryan's will get into the 65% range in his best year. So better than Plummer's, but nothing exceptional.

Anyway, there is my 'out of the box' comparison for Matt Ryan. I think Ryan will be better, and he has more tools as far as arm strength and size. But there are some similarities.

AtariBigby
04-06-2008, 09:54 AM
I agree Matt Ryan is overrated.... I mean we say Tom Brady (pick #199) is the exception, but there's also Faver in round two, Romo and former MVP Warner undrafted. Hasselback round 6, Marino went after 5 other QBs....etc..... while David Carr was #1, Ryan Leaf #2, Akili Smith and Joey Harrington #3, Byron Leftwich top ten, etc.....

The scouts are not geniuses. They are more like handicappers, and if any of you are serious gamblers on sporting events, you know 99% of handicappers are no better in the long run than flipping coins. Same way with the way they grade QBs.

Matt Ryan should be a decent QB in the NFL. But he's no Manning or Aikman or Elway.

BamaFalcon59
04-06-2008, 10:00 AM
I agree Matt Ryan is overrated.... I mean we say Tom Brady (pick #199) is the exception, but there's also Faver in round two, Romo and former MVP Warner undrafted. Hasselback round 6, Marino went after 5 other QBs....etc..... while David Carr was #1, Ryan Leaf #2, Akili Smith and Joey Harrington #3, Byron Leftwich top ten, etc.....

The scouts are not geniuses. They are more like handicappers, and if any of you are serious gamblers on sporting events, you know 99% of handicappers are no better in the long run than flipping coins. Same way with the way they grade QBs.

Matt Ryan should be a decent QB in the NFL. But he's no Manning or Aikman or Elway.

Most of the NFLs good QBs were round one picks. The percentage of success drops big after that. Manning, Aikman, and Elway all went number one overall.

toonsterwu
04-06-2008, 10:22 AM
This is a post somewhat in response to schizo - didn't feel like quoting the post for obvious reasons (length).

a) I wouldn't necessarily equate throwing off his back foot with footwork/pocket presence, at least, that wasn't my intent. I was referencing more to his feel for the pocket. Now, I will say a bunch of top QB prospects had a tendency to throw off the back foot in college. Jamarcus Russell did last year.

b) Actually, it wasn't Aaron Rodgers. Aaron was Tedford-ized. Thus, it was hard to see if he could see the planes of the field well. Alex Smith was one of the better ones in recent memory. Jay Cutler also had a very good sense of the different planes of the field, and to an extent, Matt Leinart did as well from what I recall. Jamarcus Russell was solid in that regards, which was enough as his arm let him get away with a lot. I think the other guy I might've mentioned before was Bruce Gradkowski. Colt Brennan sees the different planes fairly well as well. Seeing the planes of the field is a huge attribute, but you have to have the tools (which Ryan does). It's the difference between an elite QB and a good QB. It's a combinaiton of the ability to maintain vision and to go through the reads at a rapid pace, to give it a loose explanation. In my opinion, it's something that's hard to improve significantly on at this stage in their careers, as it comes largely through experience and practice, and there's a certain innate aspect to it.

c) Definite selling point. Mechanics are huge. They are the biggest indicator of bust factor. I'm a huge fan of Andre' Woodson. Look at the history of QB's. Most elite QB's, which is what you are looking for in the first, have good mechanics. Good doesn't mean perfect, though. There has to be some fluidity to the mechanics, which is why a guy like Aaron Rodgers had to have his mechanics broken down a bit. I can't answer on Troy right now, as it's been a long time since I've taken a look at Troy and Ohio State. But "perfect" mechanics are often a bit stiff.

Somewhat to tie in d/e/f - I think these are very significant aspects (that is, selling point). Upside is important, but you also want a guy that's partly ready. Not every QB can make these tough throws, and those factors are significant in determining value. Look around the league right now. The ability to make those tough intermediate throws on a consistent basis ... well there aren't many QB's that can do that. Now, this is just perception, and every Qb, in moving to the NFL, will have to adjust, so this doesn't guarantee that he'll adjust well. But to see that ability in college, something most QB prospects lack out of college is a selling point for me (for a variety of factors, some see the planes well, but can't make the throws from a physical ability, others are poor in other areas). Is it the end all and be all? No, you still have to have the tools first.

I think the thing on fearlessness is this - again, all these attributes I noted above sort of tie together in many key ways. If you are fearless, but able to diagnose things, that's a combination you want in a winning QB. Now, the next step beyond that is improving the decision making, but of all the assets, that's more teachable, particularly if the talent level around you is higher.

Let me get back to you on Matt Moore at a later date. It's been awhile since I considered Moore in college as well. Off the top, I would argue that Ryan's better physical tools, better QB IQ in college made him a far superior prospect to Moore. Was Moore overlooked? Yes. But I don't believe they compare all that well off the top.

toonsterwu
04-06-2008, 10:45 AM
One additional comment - felt like doing it on a separate post as the other one was getting long

First off, I want to reiterate, Matt Ryan isn't my own personal favorite. I'm not a Matt Ryan cheering section. I recognize his value, but my personal favorite is Joe Flacco. A year or two adjusting to the speed and with a good QB coach, I'd take my chances. After that, I should know better, but I still like Andre' Woodson. Give him 2 or 3 years with a QB coach that can tinker with his mechanics ... and I'd be intrigued. If I had a lot of time, I'd go with Kevin O'Connell, as all the raw tools are there (although that's probably 3-4 years of development, perhaps).

That said, and this is somewhat towards schizo, as he was the one framing the questions earlier, but also to everyone else - If not the above attributes, then what? The above basically covers a QB's mental aptitude, a QB's awareness, a QB's physical capabilities/potential, and a QB's current ability.

In my opinion, and reasonable people can differ:

a) There is no such thing as a perfect QB prospect.

I think everyone can agree with this. There's no college QB that's stepping into the NFL and lighting everything up.

b) A top QB prospect must have all the physical tools.

There isn't anyway to really define what is enough, but put it this way - if a 1-10 scale is used for the physical tools, I'd say that a top QB prospect has to have at least a 7. I'd put Ryan at a 7 or 8.

c) A top QB prospect's developed positive attributes should at least encompass areas that are harder to teach.

Somewhat lengthy. But a top QB prospect needs to

know where to place the ball,
how to process information fast,
how to see the different planes,
when to zip it in,
when to put a bit more touch,
be able to feel the pocket, instead of having to see it
and so forth

All these assets, imo, Matt Ryan has. And all these assets are tough to teach.

d) A top QB prospect's flaws should be areas that are easier to teach.

BamaFalcon59
04-06-2008, 11:08 AM
Who has more physical tools, Matt Ryan or Matt Leinart?

toonsterwu
04-06-2008, 11:12 AM
Physical tools? Hmm ... that's a tough one. They are about similar, outside of the obvious physical difference (righty/lefty). I think Ryan has better physical potential at the same point, but they are probably similar at the same points of reference.

Actually, Matt Ryan and Matt Leinart is a decent comparison that I've never really given much thought to until right now.

MidwayMonster31
04-06-2008, 01:02 PM
I would think Ryan has the stronger arm, but Leinart is more accurate. Ryan also seems like a better athlete. I always compared Ryan to pre-injury, Chad Pennington, but Leinart also works.

adamprez2003
04-06-2008, 01:26 PM
One thing with Ryan is he has the body to get bigger and therefore his arm strength could be improved over the next two years ala Tom Brady

yourfavestoner
04-06-2008, 02:35 PM
I would think Ryan has the stronger arm, but Leinart is more accurate. Ryan also seems like a better athlete. I always compared Ryan to pre-injury, Chad Pennington, but Leinart also works.

That's funny, because I always compared Leinart to a pre-injury Pennington. The more I think about it, the more similarities I see between the three of them.

This is hypothetical, but I guarantee if you put Ryan on USC's star studded team, he wouldn't have as many haters as he does.

BlindSite
04-06-2008, 05:48 PM
This is a post somewhat in response to schizo - didn't feel like quoting the post for obvious reasons (length).

a) I wouldn't necessarily equate throwing off his back foot with footwork/pocket presence, at least, that wasn't my intent. I was referencing more to his feel for the pocket. Now, I will say a bunch of top QB prospects had a tendency to throw off the back foot in college. Jamarcus Russell did last year.

b) Actually, it wasn't Aaron Rodgers. Aaron was Tedford-ized. Thus, it was hard to see if he could see the planes of the field well. Alex Smith was one of the better ones in recent memory. Jay Cutler also had a very good sense of the different planes of the field, and to an extent, Matt Leinart did as well from what I recall. Jamarcus Russell was solid in that regards, which was enough as his arm let him get away with a lot. I think the other guy I might've mentioned before was Bruce Gradkowski. Colt Brennan sees the different planes fairly well as well. Seeing the planes of the field is a huge attribute, but you have to have the tools (which Ryan does). It's the difference between an elite QB and a good QB. It's a combinaiton of the ability to maintain vision and to go through the reads at a rapid pace, to give it a loose explanation. In my opinion, it's something that's hard to improve significantly on at this stage in their careers, as it comes largely through experience and practice, and there's a certain innate aspect to it.

c) Definite selling point. Mechanics are huge. They are the biggest indicator of bust factor. I'm a huge fan of Andre' Woodson. Look at the history of QB's. Most elite QB's, which is what you are looking for in the first, have good mechanics. Good doesn't mean perfect, though. There has to be some fluidity to the mechanics, which is why a guy like Aaron Rodgers had to have his mechanics broken down a bit. I can't answer on Troy right now, as it's been a long time since I've taken a look at Troy and Ohio State. But "perfect" mechanics are often a bit stiff.

Somewhat to tie in d/e/f - I think these are very significant aspects (that is, selling point). Upside is important, but you also want a guy that's partly ready. Not every QB can make these tough throws, and those factors are significant in determining value. Look around the league right now. The ability to make those tough intermediate throws on a consistent basis ... well there aren't many QB's that can do that. Now, this is just perception, and every Qb, in moving to the NFL, will have to adjust, so this doesn't guarantee that he'll adjust well. But to see that ability in college, something most QB prospects lack out of college is a selling point for me (for a variety of factors, some see the planes well, but can't make the throws from a physical ability, others are poor in other areas). Is it the end all and be all? No, you still have to have the tools first.

I think the thing on fearlessness is this - again, all these attributes I noted above sort of tie together in many key ways. If you are fearless, but able to diagnose things, that's a combination you want in a winning QB. Now, the next step beyond that is improving the decision making, but of all the assets, that's more teachable, particularly if the talent level around you is higher.

Let me get back to you on Matt Moore at a later date. It's been awhile since I considered Moore in college as well. Off the top, I would argue that Ryan's better physical tools, better QB IQ in college made him a far superior prospect to Moore. Was Moore overlooked? Yes. But I don't believe they compare all that well off the top.

Matt Moore is still a great candidate for the future and to be honest i'd like to see the Panthers lock him up long term and annoint him Delhomme's replacement of the future.

Moore saw his first regular season action against the New Orleans Saints (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Orleans_Saints) in the 5th game of the season. Quarterback David Carr (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Carr) (who was playing in place of injured starter Jake Delhomme (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jake_Delhomme)) left the game with a back injury after being sacked near the end of the first quarter. His first NFL completion was a 43-yard pass to Keary Colbert (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keary_Colbert), but his playing time was brief as Carr returned to the field near the end of the first half. Matt started his first NFL game on December 16, 2007 against the Seattle Seahawks. He led the Panthers to victory against the Seahawks while completing 19 of 27 passes for 208 yards without a turnover. For his performance, Moore was named NFL Rookie of the month for December.

His last three games he had a combined 62% completion rate, 3 TDs 2 INT and 564 yards.

That's not too bad for a guy in his first three starts. I'll admit it wasn't always that promising but to find a guy who's a better starting QB that two other guys who combined have more years playing in the NFL than he's been alive is pretty good.

Moore showed a lot of poise, accuracy and for a rookie who missed all of training camp with the Panthers showed a lot of knowledge of the playbook.

In Matt Ryan what I see is a lot of the same as Moore has but on higher levels. Moore doesn't avoid the rush anywhere near as well as Ryan is capable of. His arm strength may be better but his release is slower and I think that at times he'll lock on to his receiver too long whereas Ryan has quick reads similar to what Manning was able to do coming out. See the field, see all his receivers quickly and then pick the best option for success. To do so in 3 seconds or less as time in the pocket dictates is a rare and valuable thing.

Ryan is capable of things mentally that no QB since Eli Manning came out was capable of doing. Ryan of course has the same propensity to throw it up there when its a 20/80 chance of being caught or picked but that can be weeded out.

SchizophrenicBatman
04-07-2008, 12:26 AM
Alright, let's see if I can catch up without writing another essay...

First off, I'll take Ryan's physical tools over Leinart any day of the week. I'd take Ryan straight up over Leinart as well, though at each stage of their draft status I'd say Leinart rates higher (dont bother trying to rationalize this). It's strange though, because I do see them as close, and I never particularly liked either. Leinart is much more the typical top QB prospect, the guy who seems calm and in control. They're similar, but polar opposites in how they approach the game. It'll be interesting to see which direction their respective careers go

Moore vs Ryan, I think BlindSite did an excellent job breaking it down. I was hoping toonster could, just so he could highlight which of the advantages Ryan had over Moore as a prospect are so vitally important. Ryan certainly moves from read to read quicker, probably a product of each's environment, and Moore, if I understand what you mean by seeing the planes (which I believe I do), doesn't match Ryan there either.

Physical tools wise, I think it's a push. Moore has slightly better arm strength, though Ryan has a better body for developing it in the future. Moore was also slight when he came out, while Ryan is at an adequate weight. Beyond that, what tools does he have on him? Moore actually scrambles better in my eyes, though Ryan moves around in the pocket better. And from every scouting report I can dredge up on Moore he's described as athletic (a fit for the WCO even) but erratic. While Ryan is considered an average athlete at best. QB IQ is a given, but obviously I was hoping for a more in depth breakdown and which aspects of Ryan's game are better and how important they are

I've probably failed my goal to keep this short but let me re: the original questions

a) Footwork and the final delivery are separate yes, but it was the closest I could throw that complaint in. I didn't worship at the altar of JaMarcus Russell personally, but the idea of drafting him was to take a physical marvel and mold him into something. And while throwing off the back foot causes problems with accuracy more than anything, I'll say I'm less concerned about the consequences of it when you have an arm like Russell's. Doesn't mean it's not still a concern (Boller), but yea

b) Ah yes, I believe it was Gradkowski I remembered, and obviously he comes without the requisite physical ability to do much with it. And yes on Rodgers, he was a Tedford QB, which is why I never paid much attention to him in the first place, and also why it threw me off some on this since I've considered field vision and reading the levels of the field always a concern with them (it's also a concern to me in the Petrino system). I know exactly what you're speaking of, and I agree that Ryan does it well and it's what separates the good from the great. The debate here, is if Ryan is good enough to be able to make that leap

c) "Biggest indicator of bust factor" "what you are looking for first, good mechanics" sounds a lot more like benchmark than selling point to me. Semantics aside, we see eye to eye here. On Woodson, he's very interesting to me as well, I think I feel almost exactly the same about him as you do. What I like from him stands out the most of any QB this year but the mechanics and his complete inability to feel pressure are huge red flags.

d-f) Eh, as I said. It should be a huge red flag if a QB can't do it. If you feel it's easily correctable (a prospect throws a wobbly ball on the out but has a rocket arm, a guy has good touch on short-intermediate routes but no touch on screens/passes to the flats) no big deal. If not, he needs something that really stands out (like Pennington's accuracy or Vick's scrambling) to counteract it.

SchizophrenicBatman
04-07-2008, 12:26 AM
the idea to keep this short was a massive failure, so I broke it up into two posts:

I don't know how teachable decision making is. Favre was still Favre in old age, and I remember hearing a story about a guy Ryan is often compared to, Hasselbeck (not a comp I'm a big fan of, but regardless), who threw high interception rates on a play-action pass down the seams that he loved audibling to. The coaches told him about it, and nothing changed. He still loved the play because it went for long yardage or a TD when it worked. In response, they just removed it from the playbook altogether. The result? His 2005 season. The apparent counter is, "well, team X could just do that with Ryan" yet that's exactly why I don't like the comparison. Despite throwing up a couple 15 INT seasons, Hasselbeck has never struck me as a gambler. Sure, he's going to pick up a few of those traits studying under Favre but overall, he's more Leinart (who, ironically, has racked up his fair share of NFL INTs simply through poor play) than Ryan in my eyes. You can't remove one play from Matt Ryan because he plays like that on every deep pass

I'd like to debate Flacco with you some time, but that's for another thread. I'm not convinced O'Connell will ever develop (if people criticize Woodson for running hot and cold with accuracy, brace yourself for his tape) but he certainly has the most intriguing raw tool set in this class. I'd at least like someone who is halfway there, which is why I'd go the Josh Johnson route if I want an upside play.

toonster post2

a) Sure, but you can say this for any of a number of guys who have been pushed down while Ryan was pushed up

b) I'd put Ryan at a low 6 with the potential to grow into an 8 1/2. This is the only place I really think the Brady comparison fits, though Brady was much more slight out of college

c) A few of these I'm not sure fit in as much others but in general you've hit a strong point. THIS is what an NFL quarterback prospect should have. It's why I went off on the Matt Moore tangent and criticized NFL scouts. It's also a laundry list of attributes I'm not sure Chad Henne does very well. Alone solely I don't believe it's enough to take a guy in the top 5. Matt Ryan has more selling points on top of it than a guy like Moore did, but I still don't view it as enough. I'm not asking him to be perfect, I'm just asking him to be a little better. Ryan is on a short list of quarterbacks I wouldn't mind my team drafting. And that is a high complement from me - I don't believe in drafting a QB unless I think he can be THE GUY at some point in the future. Of course, I wouldn't want to use a top 5 pick on him, just as I wouldn't want to use a first day pick on Josh Johnson/whatever your lower tier QB of preference

BlindSite
04-07-2008, 12:35 AM
Above two posts were absolutely brilliant.

RaiderFan
04-07-2008, 12:38 AM
Matt Ryan is a better prospect than Russel was a year ago.

Really why and how? are you trying to get a rise out of Me. Russell was a ELITE PROSPECT.....Matt Ryan would have been a 2nd Rounder last year its that simple.

Russell has Better
Accuracy
Arm strength
Mobility
Winning percentage
Better Competition
Taller

They both have Comparable
Footwork
Quick Release

And Russell has the Intangible Edge
Confidence
Good Work Ethic
Great Leader


Not even close
Russell>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Ryan

SchizophrenicBatman
04-07-2008, 12:57 AM
Without giving more than seconds thought to it, here would be my Russell break down

++ Size (in every aspect, he has the potential to shed tacklers better than Roethlisberger)
++ Arm
+ Deep ball (related to arm, but not always coincides with it)
+ Quick Release
+ Getting it into tough spots

- Gets clogged in pocket traffic a bit much, likely never adjusted since he could just shrug off most college defenders
- Side arms it/back foots too much
- Believes in his arm, almost to a fault
- Work ethic, maturity
- LSU doesn't run a system, but they had a LOT of passes behind the line of scrimmage
- Throwing mechanics need a little adjustment, but nothing major. Dont mess with the release, please
-- I thought Matt Flynn was better than him two years ago

kiwicard
04-07-2008, 04:02 AM
Matt Ryan is overrated. He throws very well on the run, but often throws middle routes off the back foot, he has nowhere near the arm strength that people give him credit for and his deep balls will float often.

His accuracy and decision making are what concern me the most. He doesn't compete 60% of his passes, and his receivers did not drop that many passes. combine that with a YPA of under 7 and having ovver 40% of his completions go to TE's or Backs, and I see a guy who does make reads well, but has very shotty accuracy one he has to throw further than 25 yards. In terms of a draft prospect he does remind me a little bit of a Jay Cutler without the cannon, becasue of his ability to throw the ball on the run, but he is definately going to have most success if he is drafted to a WCO team.

My #1 QB is Brohm, how does a guy go from a top 5 picks (in a draft with Quinn and Russell), go out have his best ever season in an O that is not only one of the most pro style in college football, but also his first in the specific offence, to a late 1st pick?. He has great feet in the pocket and an arm much more accurate and similar in strength to Ryan. His only real knock is the injuries that he has sustained and that he is not mobile (BTW ran a 4.67 40).
Brohm is the most ready of the class.

The reason I see Ryan being projected higher is because he has the ability to create time with his feet if he goes to a high team without a great OL. Whereas Brohm will be able to succeed without any receivers, but will need an OL. That is why I think if Atlanta or Miami go QB Ryan is the pick, If Baltimore goes QB then Brohm is their guy.

BlindSite
04-07-2008, 04:33 AM
Without giving more than seconds thought to it, here would be my Russell break down

++ Size (in every aspect, he has the potential to shed tacklers better than Roethlisberger)
++ Arm
+ Deep ball (related to arm, but not always coincides with it)
+ Quick Release
+ Getting it into tough spots

- Gets clogged in pocket traffic a bit much, likely never adjusted since he could just shrug off most college defenders
- Side arms it/back foots too much
- Believes in his arm, almost to a fault
- Work ethic, maturity
- LSU doesn't run a system, but they had a LOT of passes behind the line of scrimmage
- Throwing mechanics need a little adjustment, but nothing major. Dont mess with the release, please
-- I thought Matt Flynn was better than him two years ago

...and people call me a homer.