View Full Version : PFT reporting new draft trade chart

04-04-2008, 12:24 PM


Matthew Jones
04-04-2008, 12:30 PM
Nice. I'll have to take a look later!

04-04-2008, 12:32 PM
interesting stuff...money plays a big part in this

04-04-2008, 12:38 PM
Ha! I'm sorry but that's a bit too extreme to the other side. Yes these contracts are out of hand, but you're telling me that I can trade up from the 2nd pick to the 1st pick by trading a 6th rounder?

04-04-2008, 12:39 PM
Ha! I'm sorry but that's a bit too extreme to the other side. Yes these contracts are out of hand, but you're telling me that I can trade up from the 2nd pick to the 1st pick by trading a 6th rounder?

I agree the values are awful and regardless of the money necessary to get these players, their value is far greater than this

04-04-2008, 12:40 PM
Ha! I'm sorry but that's a bit too extreme to the other side. Yes these contracts are out of hand, but you're telling me that I can trade up from the 2nd pick to the 1st pick by trading a 6th rounder?

There should really be a rule against PFT articles being given their own threads. There is no way that any team would use that chart.

04-04-2008, 12:45 PM
Wow look at the difference between the last pick in the 1st and the first pick in the 2nd.

Apparently it only takes a 6th rounder to move up from #2 to #1 but a high 3rd rounder to move from #33 to #32.

04-04-2008, 01:25 PM
On a separate note, something that most haven't discussed is this - let's say that some people get a new chart agreed upon this year. The chances of it fully getting implemented within a year, even two, seems slim to me. You have to get all these teams to agree on new values, which seems problematic.

Of course, if the team at the top is willing to play by the new chart, then, maybe it goes quicker.

04-04-2008, 02:26 PM
I doubt that NFL teams are actually using one of these value charts when they make, all teams value there picks differently and I'm sure that there chart reflects it in such a way

Dr. Gonzo
04-04-2008, 02:27 PM
I like the idea of lower values at the top but there is no way values at the top will ever be that low. I can see a trade chart emerging though that is somewhere between the current one and that one.

04-04-2008, 02:27 PM
I doubt that NFL teams are actually using one of these value charts when they make, all teams value there picks differently and I'm sure that there chart reflects it in such a way

If you look at the majority of trades, they often coincide very closely with the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. The variables are usually how much teams value future picks and things of that nature.

04-04-2008, 02:33 PM
In a few years, this projection should be more accurate than the one traditionally used today. If the NFL does not fix the CBA, and the league has uncapped years, small market teams will be held hostage. Teams will be forced out of top 5-10 picks due to the lack of funding to spend on a 30 million guaranteed. Its interesting to speculate what direction the league will take when only large market teams can afford top draft positions and small market teams the rest.

04-04-2008, 02:48 PM
Agreed that this seem out of whack. To move up from 10 overall to 1 overall only takes a mid second rounder?

04-04-2008, 02:50 PM
firstly, the uncapped year thing isnt going to happen. to allow that would be suicide for both sides since it would essentially be killing the goose that lays the golden egg.

so we can just throw that out right now. worst case scenario, one sides makes some last minute concessions to keep the cap in place and what not for a few more years....

anyway, onto the new chart.

i am very much in favor of a new trade chart being worked out. I think that its completely asinine that the top picks are so hard to trade into (or out of) considering the amount of money teams have to pay to unproven players there.

now, i was a little disappointed in the PFT one when i saw it. it takes what i would like to see a little too far...but im glad to see he was trying.

and ill never, EVER understand why people hate PFT so much. he touches on issues and reports things days or sometimes weeks before the real media will and is right about it 90% of the time. id take knowing things that much sooner for that once every-now-and-then chance that hes mistaken. he does such great work imo. PFT is my homepage and im always clicking back there for updates.

but like i said, the trade chart DOES need changed and at least he tried something. now it should be a little harder to trade than just to throw 6th round picks in but hey, he tried something. I respect that and i wish the NFL would take it a little further.

i always point to last year as an example of something stupid happening because the trade chart is out of whack.

i think its clear that lions wanted (and needed) gaines adams and the bucs wanted (and needed) calvin johnson.

the browns, the team between them, were very unlikely to take either of those guys, so we can throw them out as ******* it up.

now, if i recall correctly, the lions basically wanted everything bucs had for them to move up to #2. the trade value chart was on the lions side there i believe.

but, tehre are several problems with that.

a.) your going to get adams at #4 for a reduced price than what youd have to pay anyone at #2
b.) the browns aren't going to take adams (i didnt believe) so you dont have to worry about them
c.) you can pick up just an extra 3rd rounder and still come out on top.

both teams could end up with the players they wanted by trading and the lions could have just picked up a free 3rd rounder, AND paid the guy they wanted a whole lot less.

its just stupid...the chart needs changed

04-04-2008, 02:58 PM
From PFT : (this wasn't posted when the chart went up initially)

Posted by Mike Florio on April 4, 2008, 2:48 p.m.

For those of you who have managed to stay awake through some of the less intriguing stuff that gives us a little street cred in the football bidness, here’s one that will be sure to put you to sleep.

We’re unveiling today our initial proposal for a new draft trade chart.

The current version, which can be inspected right here, was developed in the 1990s. But the skyrocketing of rookie contracts paid to the guys at the top of round one have rendered the current chart obsolete.

Under the current chart, the No. 1 overall pick is worth 3,000 points. The value drops by 400 points per pick over the next three selections. Then, the drop is 100 per pick for the next four, 50 per pick for the next ten selections, 25 per pick for a few choices, then 20 for several picks, and then finally ten per pick at the bottom of round one and into round two.

So if the Dallas Cowboys were to package the No. 22 and No. 28 overall picks in an effort to move up for a crack at Arkansas running back Darren McFadden, the two first-rounders would be worth 1,440 points, enough to move up only to No. 8. To get to No. 1, the Cowboys would need another 1,560 points.

Under the new chart, the No. 1 overall pick is worth 1,000 points. The biggest drop in the round (100 points) occurs between picks number 16 and 17, since the maximum length of the rookie deal as of the seventeenth pick is five years. For the first sixteen selections, the maximum duration is six.

There’s an even bigger dip from the bottom of round one to the top of round two, since the maximum contract length beginning with round two is four years.

The value doesn’t change at all from the bottom of round two to the top of round three, because the new draft format gives the team with the first pick in round three much more time to contemplate the pick. Starting this year, only the first round and second round will be selected on Saturday. On Sunday morning, the third round begins.

We’re not quite sure how the current trade chart became gospel, but the thing is now outdated. We plan to possibly tweak the new numbers based on input from league insiders and readers. For now, however, we think that the proposed chart is a huge upgrade over the version that has been in place, but only because of the changes in the dynamics of paying players at the top of round one.

04-04-2008, 03:56 PM
I absolutely agree that the old draft trade chart is outdated and could use replacing. However, this looks to be a pretty poor attempt.

04-04-2008, 05:48 PM
I doubt that NFL teams are actually using one of these value charts when they make, all teams value there picks differently and I'm sure that there chart reflects it in such a way

They most certainly do use a chart like this to assess point values but there is a science and hypothesis behind it. Past drafts where great players were picked. Cost to sign the player. Evaluated Talent in this particular draft. The factors are many but this one seems little far fetched to see that big of a disparity to give you the ability to move up that much for a 6th rd pick ?!

04-04-2008, 06:52 PM
BeerBaron...I usually love your posts, and really respect you as a reader (yet, new poster). But, as much as it hurts me, espcially as a small market team fan, I see the cap "ending". I put that in quotes because I see the "Cap" being something that only the elite teams will be able to reach. Dallas, NY, Pats, and Washington will be the only ones who can really push the limits of it. The rest will still be in the middle, and some near the bottom. I dont think its so far fetched. Several of the owners at the last owners meeting said they could build a succesfull team without a salary cap. (Implying they have a plan for the future). Personally, an uncapped system would force an evolution of the game. You would see small market teams attempting new and unattempted things. I think it would be fun to watch, but in the long run....I want a cap.

04-04-2008, 09:02 PM
I'm really suprised that everyone is so shocked by the new chart. I'm of the belief that Parcells would probably give away a late round pick to move out of the first spot. The salary structue is so screwed up that there is very little value at the top of the draft. With the amount the Top 5 picks are taking up in the cap they need to play at or near a Hall of Fame level to justify thier salary and god forbid if you grab a guy that falls out of the league. I'm probably being a bit extreme, but overall I don't think this chart is that bad.

04-07-2008, 11:40 AM
Originally Posted by Iamcanadian
I completely disagree. GM's don't really give a damn about salaries when drafting, they are all looking for impact players at primary positions and for the most part those are found in the top 5 picks followed by the 6-10 group. That is never going to change.
In the history of the NFL, trading up to secure a top 5 pick has always been rare and such trades are few and far between. The same holds true today.
The top 5 picks now sign for 4-6 seasons and guaranteeing them in the 30 million range is actually cheap if the pick pans out with the team retaining a lot of options if it doesn't.
I guarantee you, if Miami or any top 5 team would accept 1000 points for their top 5 picks, everyone of them would be traded. Fans worry about money, GM's worry about finding stars. Sure, if a GM is stuck drafting a secondary position in the top 5, the money issue will be a serious question but drafting star potential prospects at primary positions isn't going to even make them break a sweat.

I definitely disagree, money is playing a major role in the NFL Draft these days and we have seen a decline in Top 5 trades because of it. obviously the draft pick compensation to move up is also a major factor but money is right there with it.

Scott, I checked back till 1980 and in the 80"s there appears to have been 2 top 5 picks traded(I could have easily forgotten 1 or 2), one of which was the John Elway forced trade, in the 90's there were 3 top 5 picks traded(again it is possible I forgot 1 or 2) and in the 2000's there have been 3 top 5 picks traded, so I do not see where you can justify the argument that money is playing a major role in trading top 5 picks any more so than in the past.
Trading top 5 picks has always been rare, at least for the last 27 years.
If money is such an important factor, why aren't teams trading out of the top 5 by devaluing the pick and accepting far less in return. Why do GM's insist on using the Trade Value Chart at least as a starting point for any trade. Traditionally, top 5 teams, even if they want to trade down, have always been very reluctant to trade out of the top 5, and trades in the top 5 have usually involved a QB as the primary reason to trade up. Since, 2004, there hasn't really been a QB who was a sure fire franchise type except maybe Russell and Oakland wanted Russell for themselves. Certainly, Alex Smith and Vince Young weren't in strong demand and the teams that drafted them were very weak at QB anyways and probably had no interest in trading down.
So I just don't see any concrete evidence that money in today's draft plays anymore importance than in the previous 27 years.

04-07-2008, 11:44 AM
Like everyone has already said the value is awkward, and makes no sense...But even with the real chart, its just a guideline, teams will still drive up the price if they dont to move, or they will take less then the value if they feel like its smarter to do so...but this value is all over the place with this chart and makes no sense.