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View Full Version : Mayock: Lions take Mayo @ 15


Addict
04-04-2008, 10:03 PM
Figured that was thread-worthy... our need at LB that big and is Mayo's stock really high enough?

WMD
04-05-2008, 12:33 AM
I wouldn't like that. Especially because there's a good chance either one of the Top OT's, Derrick Harvey, Rashard Mendenhall, or Branden Albert will be there at 15.. and any of them would be a better pick, IMO. We wouldn't be getting very good Value for the pick and I think we'd be better off taking Jonathan Goff in Round 3.

ChezPower4
04-05-2008, 03:22 AM
I have to agree with you. LB is far from your most pressing need, i think that it is O-Line and RB. I think that Mayo may slip to the second round and maybe Millien would trade up to get him in the second. That would make a lot of sence. I think that Mayo is a great fit for the Tampa 2 defence that the lions play.

Geo
04-05-2008, 09:25 AM
Wow, that strikes me as waaay too high. Forget that imo.

Addict
04-05-2008, 11:10 AM
You're both right, but I think Mayo's stock right now couldn't be higher and if we want him we might actually have to trade up quite a bit (at cost of draft picks, which are much-needed to fill holes.

But with Mendenhall, Chris Williams, Branden Albert and Derrick Harvey still available I don't think reaching for Mayo would help us.

P-L
04-05-2008, 11:18 AM
I could actually see this happening. I believe in my last mock I had Mayo going to the Lions at #17 (before the draft order was set). I'm not sure if I would be a fan of the move, but I do think this has a realistic chance of happening.

Geo
04-05-2008, 11:23 AM
I'd rather not draft Mayo at all than draft him with the 15th overall pick. The Lions have bigger needs, with better players available at those other positions.

Prowler
04-05-2008, 12:28 PM
great talent, but he should not go higher than ray lewis did...i'd rather have chris williams and he's probably my 3rd choice at that spot.

Addict
04-05-2008, 01:29 PM
great talent, but he should not go higher than ray lewis did...i'd rather have chris williams and he's probably my 3rd choice at that spot.

That might be the single dumbest argument not to take a player. Ray Lewis was a freakin' steal. With that reasoning taking a quarterback before round six is insane considering Tom Brady was there, DE in round one? rediculous, Chiefs got Jared Allen in round 3!

I suppose you were against Patrick Willis in the top 20 as well? Hell he was drafted 15 spots earlier than Lewis, which is crazy! Brian Urlacher was drafted 17 picks earlier than Lewis... that's proposterous!

My point is Ray Lewis was drafted 26th overall in a time when inside linebackers, like safeties weren't taken high a lot. There are exceptions, of couse. If anything guys like Ray Lewis are the REASON teams are willing to take a linebacker early simply because of the impact he and his kind have on the game.

Lionsfan93
04-05-2008, 02:38 PM
rather take Albert at 15 than Mayo

Scotty D
04-05-2008, 03:38 PM
I like it. I was speculating on this the last couple of days in the discussion thread.

Prowler
04-06-2008, 12:46 PM
my point is that he's just not there yet. he's not ray lewis and not patrick willis. he's still a bottom 1st/ top 2nd round pick. if we want him then lets just trade back into the bottom of the 1st, plenty of people will want to move down.

Prowler
04-06-2008, 12:53 PM
I suppose you were against Patrick Willis in the top 20 as well? Hell he was drafted 15 spots earlier than Lewis, which is crazy! Brian Urlacher was drafted 17 picks earlier than Lewis... that's proposterous!


also, don't be stupid patrick willis was a way different prospect than mayo, he wasn't a middle of the pack player who worked his way up into first round consideration, he was a stud from the beginning who happened to also run a 4.37 in his pro day to earn his elite grade. and urlacher earned his elite grade. mayo is great but not elite, so don't confuse them.

Nitschke-Hawk
04-06-2008, 12:58 PM
With Ernie Sims there I don't think a 1st rounder needs to be spent on Mike Linebacker for the Tampa 2. They can be found anywhere. Gary Brackett wasn't even drafted.

DoWnThEfiElD
04-06-2008, 01:04 PM
Well hopefully we would trade down before making this pick at 15.

Scotty D
04-06-2008, 01:07 PM
With Ernie Sims there I don't think a 1st rounder needs to be spent on Mike Linebacker for the Tampa 2. They can be found anywhere. Gary Brackett wasn't even drafted.

Johnny Baldwin!

asmitty45
04-06-2008, 02:38 PM
I wouldnt be too upset, id rather mendenhall but we did stretch to take ESims and he turned into a probowler so if they like him enough i think they should take him, but I'd rather trade back up into the first and take him.

Geo
04-06-2008, 02:53 PM
With Ernie Sims there I don't think a 1st rounder needs to be spent on Mike Linebacker for the Tampa 2. They can be found anywhere. Gary Brackett wasn't even drafted.
That's true, Brackett was an undersized UDFA out of Rutgers who eventually became the starter in his third season.

You know, someone I would like for the Lions is Jolonn Dunbar of Boston College. Having seen him play and contribute, I came away liking him as an underrated prospect. Natural leader/MIKE imo, I think he could fit the scheme.

Addict
04-06-2008, 03:19 PM
That's true, Brackett was an undersized UDFA out of Rutgers who eventually became the starter in his third season.

You know, someone I would like for the Lions is Jolonn Dunbar of Boston College. Having seen him play and contribute, I came away liking him as an underrated prospect. Natural leader/MIKE imo, I think he could fit the scheme.

he's a thrid-round kind of guy right?

detroit4life
04-06-2008, 07:05 PM
i wouldnt be too upset about the pick. A lot of ppl probably dont like it because he use to be a guy we thought we would take with our second round pick.

Geo
04-06-2008, 07:24 PM
he's a thrid-round kind of guy right?
Probably even later than that, it seems like.

i wouldnt be too upset about the pick. A lot of ppl probably dont like it because he use to be a guy we thought we would take with our second round pick.
I can't imagine him being worth the pick, but to be fair, a lot of that is I haven't seen much of Mayo. Whereas I had seen, say Donte Whitner for example play a good deal, and didn't have a problem with the Bills taking him at 8th overall while the talking heads bitched their fickle heads off.

Although in that case, strong safety is an important part of the defensive scheme. I personally think the Lions would be better served addressing another position, despite a need at MLB, but maybe they're building a worst case scenario if all the other players they have in mind don't reach their pick. Ex. even if it's not a RB or OT, Derrick Harvey seems to be the best fit at DE and he might be gone too before their pick.

detroit4life
04-06-2008, 09:14 PM
i think if harvey or a top OT is there they take them over mayo. I do see us moving up into the first for mayo but i dont htink theyll do it at 15

Brothgar
04-06-2008, 11:38 PM
i think if harvey or a top OT is there they take them over mayo. I do see us moving up into the first for mayo but i dont htink theyll do it at 15

I have to agree full heartedly. If you think of it as a whole story (as opposed to a pick by pick situation) there is no way you take Mayo at 15.

We have 4[5] possitions we would think about taking at 15 RB, OT, DE, MLB, [OG], Maybe CB but I don't see it considering the off season thus far.

First lets look at what players you could get in round 2 in comparison to the ones you get in round 1.

DE
Round 1 - Derrick Harvey, Philip Merling.
Round 2 - Calalis Campbell (Maybe) Jason Jones
Round 3 - Chris Ellis

Looking at it from the worst case scenerio What is the talent difference between Philip Merling and Jason Jones? I'd put it as very significant difference and a less significant difference between Jones and Ellis.

MLB
Round 1 - Jarod Mayo, Dan Connor
Round 2 - Curtis Lofton
Round 3 - Philip Wheeler, Tavaras Gooden, Johnathan Goff

Now there is no need to look at this situation in anything other than the best case becasue lets face it there isn't going to to be 3 ILBs taken before the 15th pick in the 2nd round. So what is the talent drop between Mayo and Lofton. It really isn't nearly as significant as the talent dropoff at DE or OT and it is a slightly more dropoff between a Lofton and a Goff (I personally am not sold as much on Goff's coverage abilities as others are)

OT

Round 1- Jeff Otah, Chris Williams Godser Cherillus.
Round 2- Sam Baker (Maybe), Carl Nicks
Round 3 - Anthony Collins, Oneil Cousins.

OK so first and foremost I must reiterate that we need a RT so I think that Chris Williams may not be of interest (He's not really a Mauler) What is the talent gap betweem Otah and Nicks? Moderate I'd say although Cherillus may slip to the late 1st early 2nd which we could trade up for but I really don't see us taking an OT after the 2nd round and have them start next season. That isn't a testiment to how good George Foster is as much as it is a testiment on how many OT's will be taken before the 3rd round.

RB
Round 1 - Mendenhall or Stewart (maybe)
Round 2 - Chris Johnson or Felix Jones (which ever Dallas doesn't take), and Ray Rice.
Round 3 - Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, Jamaal Charles.

There isn't that much of a dropoff between round 1 and 2 (don't get me wrong there is a drpoff but not nearly the dropoff between the distance betwen round 1 DE and Round 2 DE. And there are still some very serviceable RBs in round 3.

Brandon Albert he is by far the best OG in this very weak OG class. But I'm not sure if he isi good enough to constitute using a pick at 15 on an OG.



So lets think about what would make the best overall draft.

Are you willinjg to risk having no DE drafted this year I am but I don't think that most of you are. Now if I was 100% certain that Campbell would be around in the 2nd round I'd pass on Harvey and Merling. But I'm not that certain that Campbell will be there so I'd prepose that if Harvey are Merling is available at 15 we'd have to take him.

In the second round it pretty much has to be an OT I don't trust George Foster to carry us into next season so we have to take Sam Baker or Carl Nicks unless we package a 2nd and later 3rd to move up and take Cherillus. Either way if we take Merling or Harvey in round 1 we have to take an OL in round 2 to get a starter for next season or even make it worth geting a OT at all.

Leaving round 3 to grab a RB and a ILB or OLB. Bit the 3rd pick likely making the 1st pick the best RB available and the 2nd 3rd round pick will have to be for a ILB/OLB but honestly I'd rather wait till next year for an ILB but it just isn't likely.


In summation
Rnd 1 Harvey Merling
Rnd 2 Baker, Nicks, or trade up for Godser
Rnd 3a Matt Forte
Rnd 3b(if applicable) Johnathan Goff.

wingboy2999
04-06-2008, 11:39 PM
Way too high for someone that won't even play MLB immediately.

Iamcanadian
04-07-2008, 09:20 AM
The real point is, if Millen takes anybody at #15, will there be anybody here who thinks he choice is a sure thing or was he suckered again into taking somebody nobody else really wanted. It doesn't really matter who he takes with the #15th pick since he hasn't a clue how to assess talent and you and I could probably have done better pulling a name out of a hat.
We are talking about the worst drafting GM in the history of the NFL, why, because no owner before Ford ever permitted a GM to have 7 rotten seasons without firing him.

Addict
04-07-2008, 11:52 AM
The real point is, if Millen takes anybody at #15, will there be anybody here who thinks he choice is a sure thing or was he suckered again into taking somebody nobody else really wanted. It doesn't really matter who he takes with the #15th pick since he hasn't a clue how to assess talent and you and I could probably have done better pulling a name out of a hat.
We are talking about the worst drafting GM in the history of the NFL, why, because no owner before Ford ever permitted a GM to have 7 rotten seasons without firing him.

we should persuade Millen to join the forum! that way we can give him tips!

Iamcanadian
04-07-2008, 12:06 PM
we should persuade Millen to join the forum! that way we can give him tips!

Unfortunately, he doesn't take advice well, just ask Mooch. He's from the Al Davis school of managment where the head honcho makes all the decisions and the coaches just have to live with it.

Maybe Next Year Millen2
04-08-2008, 09:08 AM
Unfortunately, he doesn't take advice well, just ask Mooch. He's from the Al Davis school of managment where the head honcho makes all the decisions and the coaches just have to live with it.

Yeah the defensive guru Mooch didn't want any offensive players or Jeff Garcia. Oh wait...........

casskid
04-12-2008, 12:33 PM
I dont really think that Lions could make a wrong pick at 15. I know that right decision and Lions dont belong in the same sentence, but the team has so many wholes that any number of picks could be the way to go. RB, LB, DE, OT, DT, etc all need help. So if the Lions took Mayo at 15 it would be a slight overvaluation of him, but in the end he helps fill a position of need and puts more talent on the team.

WMD
04-12-2008, 01:44 PM
Millen is good at trading on Draft Day.. I think he'll swing a trade down and get Mayo at better value, or we'll trade down, and then trade back up with our extra picks.. I don't like the thought of taking him at #15, though.

wingboy2999
04-12-2008, 03:45 PM
Millen is good at trading on Draft Day.. I think he'll swing a trade down and get Mayo at better value, or we'll trade down, and then trade back up with our extra picks.. I don't like the thought of taking him at #15, though.

Yeah, can anyone tell me what exactly he did to shoot up from round 2 to #15? I didn't see anything that would make me think he'd explode like that.

Geo
04-12-2008, 04:04 PM
Probably the performance at the Combine, the 4.5 40 time especially. Some other ILBs prospects didn't run as well.

casskid raised a good point, the Lions are going to get a great player with the 15th overall pick at their disposal. One might argue Ernie Sims was drafted too high considering the defensive scheme, but he's the best defensive player for the Lions right now and fans love him, so I don't think they really think of where he was drafted exactly.

Personally, I think I'd wait until the 2nd round if not later, Dan Connor might fall (maybe trade up for him like the Bills traded up for Paul Poz last year) and Curtis Lofton also seems like a very good prospect, but that's me looking from the outside in. We've seen some excellent ILBs taken in the 2nd round area the last few years, but there's no guarantee that will continue this year too maybe.

wingboy2999
04-12-2008, 04:19 PM
I'd be VERY happy with Lofton. I think he'd be a great find in the 2nd so we can go RB/OL in the 1st.

Scotty D
04-12-2008, 04:25 PM
I don't think Lofton makes it to our pick in the second. If we don't get Mayo, I've heard Dizon is going to be the guy most likely.

wingboy2999
04-12-2008, 04:30 PM
Dizon should be taken in the 3rd - 4th... NOT the 2nd.