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View Full Version : If you hate Matt Ryan' s 19 int look at this


Rjspartan
04-08-2008, 05:04 PM
Matt Ryan averaged an interception about every 34 passes.
Brain Brohm averaged an interception about every 39 passes.
Joe Flacco averaged an interception about every 104 passes.
Chad Henne averaged an interception about every 30 passes.
Andre Woodson averaged an interception about every 47 passes.
John David Booty averaged an interception about every 34 passes.
Colt Brennan averaged an interception about every 30 passes.

you can see that most of them are about the same.

all stats from the 2007 season.

BaLLiN
04-08-2008, 05:09 PM
Flacco really stands out there, but he did play against much weaker competition...

Addict
04-08-2008, 05:10 PM
wow... they really are all the same... So... Matt Ryan is average!

Great topic.

Jonny
04-08-2008, 05:10 PM
That's useless though. Ryan was playing teams like UMass, Army, and Duke.

A Perfect Score
04-08-2008, 05:12 PM
do it for josh johnson :) see how that one turns out for ya...

Rjspartan
04-08-2008, 05:13 PM
That's useless though. Ryan was playing teams like UMass, Army, and Duke.
Flacco and Brennan didn't play against many good teams either.

Thunder&Lightning
04-08-2008, 05:16 PM
That's useless though. Ryan was playing teams like UMass, Army, and Duke.

ya but they also beat teams like MSU, Miami, VT, Georgia Tech, NC State, and Clemson...

BamaFalcon59
04-08-2008, 05:16 PM
That's useless though. Ryan was playing teams like UMass, Army, and Duke.

Where as Brian Brohm was playing Syracuse and the tough Big East?

Joe Flacco and division 1-aa?

Chad Henne and Northwestern?

John David Booty and the Stanford and Washington State, along with the not so great defensively Pac-10?

Colt Brennan and the WAC?

Your arguement is useless.

Sportsfan486
04-08-2008, 05:18 PM
do it for josh johnson :) see how that one turns out for ya...

301 passes to one int.. kek.

Although he's only 71 passes to 1 int for his career.

P-L
04-08-2008, 05:21 PM
All those QB's played some ****** teams. Brian Brohm had 9 TD's and 0 INT's against Murray State and Middle Tennessee State. He had 21 TD's and 12 INT's in his other 10 games. Henne had 4 TD's and 1 INT against Appalachian State and Northwestern, but 13 TD's and 8 INT's in his other 8 games. Brennan threw 10 TD's and 1 INT against Northern Colorado and Louisiana Tech. He had 28 TD's and 16 INT in his other 10 games.

Rjspartan
04-08-2008, 05:22 PM
Ryan threw 654 passes last year if he threw 400 he would have only 11 picks.

ChezPower4
04-08-2008, 05:26 PM
what are you trying to prove that he screws up just as much as the second tier QBs.(exept Josh Johnson)

BamaFalcon59
04-08-2008, 05:27 PM
what are you trying to prove that he screws up just as much as the second tier QBs.(exept Josh Johnson)

Considering that turnovers are considered his biggest negative, being average in that catagory would help him.

neko4
04-08-2008, 05:38 PM
TD's, dont mean as much, but still important so i figure i'd post it anyways.Ofcourse this statistic can be affected by how often they ran it down inside the 10 and other factors

Matt Ryan 1td every 21 Attempts
Colt Brennan 1td every 13 Attempts
Brian Brohm 1td every 16 Attempts
Andre Woodson 1td every 13 Attempts
Erik Ainge 1td every 17 attempts
JD Booty 1td every 15 attempts
Chad Henne 1td every 16 attempts
Josh Johnson 1td every 7 attempts
Joe Flacco 1td every 23 attempts



BTW, John Parker Wilson 1int every 42 attempts. Just brought that up to say that i dont really care too much about stats. I have my reasons for not liking Matt Ryan other than the 19 picks, and I have reasons for liking Brennan other than the TD's.

Geo
04-08-2008, 05:43 PM
I'm not sure how much this type of thing really helps. It's not like Omar Jacobs is in the league right now, plus guys could have a much better chance in the college game than the pro game (ex. Chase Daniel of Mizzou), and so on.

SKim172
04-08-2008, 06:06 PM
Okay then, we'll play the numbers game.

Last season, Matt Ryan threw 654 passes for 388 completions. He had 4,507 yards, 31 TDs and 19 interceptions.

Completion: 59.3%
Yards per attempt: 6.89 yards
Yards per completion: 11.61 yards
Attempts per interception: 34.4 attempts
Completions per interception: 20.4 completions
Attempts per touchdown: 21.1 attempts
Completions per touchdown: 12.5 completions

Last season, Brian Brohm threw 473 passes for 308 completions. He had 4,024 yards, 30 TDs and 12 interceptions.

Completion: 65.1%
Yards per attempt: 8.51 yards
Yards per completion: 13.06 yards
Attempts per interception: 39.4 attempts
Completions per interception: 25.7 completions
Attempts per touchdown: 15.8 attempts
Completions per touchdown: 10.3 completions


Pass efficiency defense ranking of I-A opponents in 2007:

Ryan
Wake Forest: 14th
North Carolina State: 25th
Georgia Tech: 58th
Army: 88th
UMass: N/A
Bowling Green: 93rd
Notre Dame: 22nd
Virginia Tech: 5th
Florida State: 57th
Maryland: 44th
Clemson: 13th
Miami (Fla): 62nd
Michigan State: 63rd

Non-conference average: 66.5
In-conference average: 34.75
In-conference average without no-hope Miami: 30.9
In-conference average without Miami and including the second game vs VTech: 27.6
Complete average: 61

Brohm
Murray State: N/A
Middle Tennessee State: 53rd
Kentucky: 39th
Syracuse: 109th
North Carolina State: 25th
Utah: 1st
Cincinnati: 34th
UConn: 10th
Pittsburgh: 26th
West Virginia: 28th
Rutgers: 16th
USF: 8th

Non-conference average: 29.5
In-conference average: 33
In-conference average without no-hope Syracuse: 20.3
Complete average: 31.7

Tampa 2 4 life
04-08-2008, 06:20 PM
Okay then, we'll play the numbers game.

Last season, Matt Ryan threw 654 passes for 388 completions. He had 4,507 yards, 31 TDs and 19 interceptions.

Completion: 59.3%
Yards per attempt: 6.89 yards
Yards per completion: 11.61 yards
Attempts per interception: 34.4 attempts
Completions per interception: 20.4 completions
Attempts per touchdown: 21.1 attempts
Completions per touchdown: 12.5 completions

Last season, Brian Brohm threw 473 passes for 308 completions. He had 4,024 yards, 30 TDs and 12 interceptions.

Completion: 65.1%
Yards per attempt: 8.51 yards
Yards per completion: 13.06 yards
Attempts per interception: 39.4 attempts
Completions per interception: 25.7 completions
Attempts per touchdown: 15.8 attempts
Completions per touchdown: 10.3 completions


Pass efficiency defense ranking of I-A opponents in 2007:

Ryan
Wake Forest: 14th
North Carolina State: 25th
Georgia Tech: 58th
Army: 88th
UMass: N/A
Bowling Green: 93rd
Notre Dame: 22nd
Virginia Tech: 5th
Florida State: 57th
Maryland: 44th
Clemson: 13th
Miami (Fla): 62nd
Michigan State: 63rd

Non-conference average: 66.5
In-conference average: 34.75
In-conference average without no-hope Miami: 30.9
In-conference average without Miami and including the second game vs VTech: 27.6
Complete average: 61

Brohm
Murray State: N/A
Middle Tennessee State: 53rd
Kentucky: 39th
Syracuse: 109th
North Carolina State: 25th
Utah: 1st
Cincinnati: 34th
UConn: 10th
Pittsburgh: 26th
West Virginia: 28th
Rutgers: 16th
USF: 8th

Non-conference average: 29.5
In-conference average: 33
In-conference average without no-hope Syracuse: 20.3
Complete average: 31.7

Except he completely blew chunks against UConn, WVU, USF and threw two picks against Syracuse. Not to mention his racking up of the stats against MTSU and Murray St.

SKim172
04-08-2008, 06:36 PM
Obviously, you're free to draw whatever conclusions you wish. I personally would argue that Ryan completely blew chunks against VT, FSU, and UMD and that he threw two picks against Army. Not to mention his racking up of stats against Army, Bowling Green, UMass, and Notre Dame.

duckseason
04-08-2008, 06:36 PM
Yeah interception #'s and individual statistics in general are quite meaningless and manipulatable when looked upon exclusively at the surface layer of the stat sheet. When you consider all the factors that go into creating interceptions (or limiting them,) you really do need to go back and watch each play that the player in question was involved in before you can understand the numbers with any measure of accuracy.

These factors include teammate performance level, competition level, system/play-calling/game situation, weather, venue, odd bounces, etc...

I mean, there are obviously very distinct dissimilarities between an interception that occurred on 1st and 10 from the 50 in the middle of the 1st quarter where the QB had an open receiver over the middle on a slant and he just threw it behind him right into the arms of a LB- and an interception that occurred on 4th and 8 from your own 26 when you're down by 6 and there's 1:48 left in the game and everybody's covered and there's a DE closing in on you as you scramble to the left and are forced to throw into coverage because it's either that or take the sack.

There's tipped balls, receivers running the wrong route or not quite giving maximum effort, DB's with hands of glue or perhaps butterfingers, mastermind defensive coordinators who know their opponent's offense better than the sophomore QB who is running it, dinged up index fingers, rain, lack of a consistent running game, horrible blockers who allow defenders to generate constant pressure which makes every throw more difficult than it might be for the guy at the next school... I mean you really have to take a look at the tape and surrounding circumstances in order to gain any measure of insight into just how these numbers came to be.

So I guess my point is that this discussion is worthless without a glimpse or two beneath that stat sheet. You want to compare Matt Ryan's INT's to Chad Henne's, then do it.

brat316
04-08-2008, 06:38 PM
Josh Johnson 1td for every 1 pass thats something now.

BeerBaron
04-08-2008, 06:40 PM
everyone there lower than ryan i like LESS than ryan.

and woodson is a god

Tampa 2 4 life
04-08-2008, 06:43 PM
Obviously, you're free to draw whatever conclusions you wish. I personally would argue that Ryan completely blew chunks against VT, FSU, and UMD and that he threw two picks against Army. Not to mention his racking up of stats against Army, Bowling Green, UMass, and Notre Dame.

Look, you were skewing the stats by eliminating Ryan's 3rd worst opponent, and Brohm's absolute worst opponent. This isn't even getting to the point of Brohm having 3 pro prospect players on offense this year, with Ryan having one(Gosder). Ryan threw more picks than TDs in a game twice, while Brohm did it three times. Murray State, Syracuse and MTSU were collectively worse than Army, Bowling Green, and Notre Dame this year, and Kragthorpe was deliberately trying to get Brohm the Heisman.

Edit: 2500th post!

SKim172
04-08-2008, 07:10 PM
Look, you were skewing the stats by eliminating Ryan's 3rd worst opponent, and Brohm's absolute worst opponent. This isn't even getting to the point of Brohm having 3 pro prospect players on offense this year, with Ryan having one(Gosder). Ryan threw more picks than TDs in a game twice, while Brohm did it three times. Murray State, Syracuse and MTSU were collectively worse than Army, Bowling Green, and Notre Dame this year, and Kragthorpe was deliberately trying to get Brohm the Heisman.

Edit: 2500th post!


Correction: I was eliminating Matt Ryan's worst conference opponent when calculating his conference opponent average. You can't expect me to eliminate Bowling Green from the ACC schedule. Additionally, I also included a version that eliminated his worst opponent and factored in his best opponent, Virginia Tech, twice.

If you want a version simply with Ryan's best eleven opponents, including Virginia Tech twice, and eliminating his worst two opponents, it works out to 33.5 average ranking in pass efficiency defense, which is significantly better.

I realize that stats are misleading and really, they're only a small part of the game. But a) I didn't start this topic and b) I tried to include a somewhat wider sampling of data to demonstrate a gap between Ryan's numbers and the numbers of another consensus first-day pick. I didn't even mention Ryan being 61st in passer efficiency rating, behind such notables as Kyle Israel and Kellin Lewis. I simply feel that these numbers back me up when I say that there is a significant question as to how well Ryan will translate to the pros. As I said, draw what conclusions you will.

And Brohm had six pro prospects on offense this year: Douglas, Urrutia, Barnidge, Giacomini, Kuhn, and Carter, the latter three being late-round or UDFA prospects. Douglas and Barnidge were the only productive ones of the bunch - Urrutia had an inexplicable slump, Giacomini and Kuhn (the blocking TE) were little more than roadsigns on the line, and Carter was a backup.

On the other hand, you forgot to mention Challenger and Callender for BC. Is Challenger a pro-ready receiver? Probably not, but he caught 45 passes last season. Callender, on the other hand, rushed for 989 yards and caught 76 passes. He'll get some looks in free agency.

And you also forgot to mention that for BC, the best is probably yet to come. Rich Gunnell, Brandon Robinson, and Ryan Purvis are all guys who'll get looked at in 2009. Don't sell BC short - Ryan may have been the battery that made it run, but there was plenty of talent in the Golden machine.

Jonny
04-09-2008, 01:38 AM
ya but they also beat teams like MSU, Miami, VT, Georgia Tech, NC State, and Clemson...

Only VT and Clemson were any good last year.


Your arguement is useless.

This thread is about Matt Ryan. He faced the weakest competition of the BCS conference prospects this year.

JagHombre22
04-09-2008, 02:04 AM
Give me John David Booty...he can sit on the bench and learn for a couple of years and be a very good QB one day

Caddy
04-09-2008, 02:34 AM
It's is an interesting statistic and provides a nice comparison, but the failure to take into consideration competition is quite a large flaw.

eaglesalltheway
04-09-2008, 06:59 AM
Give me John David Booty...he can sit on the bench and learn for a couple of years and be a very good QB one day

That is part of the reason I like Henne.

D-Rod
04-09-2008, 07:18 AM
Any kind of statistical comparison has the fundamental flaw of excluding all kind of factors. It doesn't mean that it is useless, but as someone else said earlier, the only real analysis involves film.

If a team takes Ryan in the top 5, it won't be because they ignored the 19 INTs, it will be because they have analysed each one individually and drawn their own conclusions about Ryan's ability... just as they will do with each other player.

WCH
04-10-2008, 09:16 AM
If you're going to look at statistics, then focus on games started and completion percentage. They're the only stats that correlate with pro success among highly drafted (rds 1-2) quarterbacks:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2006/03/23/ramblings/stat-analysis/3774/

I have huge issues with Lewin's work, but it was quite groundbreaking when he first published the article and the immediate (and meteoric) rise of the draft stock of Kellen Clemens and Kevin Kolb -- not to mention the plagiarization of his work by Gil Brandt -- shows that NFL people have taken it very seriously.

marks01234
04-10-2008, 11:00 AM
I watched Ryan pad his stats against NC State. He looked very average for 3.5 quarters before finishing with some respectable numbers thanks to some very late long passes. He completed a 30 yard bomb with seconds left when they were leading by 20+.

The Hurricane
04-10-2008, 11:51 AM
On the other hand, you forgot to mention Challenger and Callender for BC. Is Challenger a pro-ready receiver? Probably not, but he caught 45 passes last season. Callender, on the other hand, rushed for 989 yards and caught 76 passes. He'll get some looks in free agency.

And you also forgot to mention that for BC, the best is probably yet to come. Rich Gunnell, Brandon Robinson, and Ryan Purvis are all guys who'll get looked at in 2009. Don't sell BC short - Ryan may have been the battery that made it run, but there was plenty of talent in the Golden machine.

Did you ever watch BC play last year? Callender and Purvis were the only bright spots in that receiving core. Our WRs could not catch. The receiving core had a couple games where they were officially credited with 6-7 drops. Challenger and Robinson each had a game with 3 individual drops. In fact I bet BC led the entire NCAA in drops(too bad i can't find that statistic anywhere).

Our receivers were terrible. At least 3 of Ryan's interceptions were balls that they tipped; I wouldn't be shocked if it was 5. If Tony Gonzalez(not related to the Chief's player) was still on the team last year, Ryan would be the consensus #1 pick in this draft.

Purvis will get drafted, Callendar will get drafted, but I would be shocked if the others do. Gunnell is young so he still has some time to develop and may eventually become a solid reciever.

psly2124
04-10-2008, 05:24 PM
Flacco couldn't cut it at Pitt...and they stunk. Overrated and a wasted pick by some team. He will never be anymore then a backup.

SKim172
04-10-2008, 05:34 PM
Flacco couldn't cut it at Pitt...and they stunk. Overrated and a wasted pick by some team. He will never be anymore then a backup.

I'm not as high on Flacco as some people. But, as a Big East fan, I will say that Coach Wannstedt of Pittsburgh is not the sharpest tool in the box and he gets by a lot on the natural talent of his players, rather than his amazing coaching.

Case in point, going for a two-point conversion against Navy in overtime, rather than tying it with a PAT, then calling the same play-action fade route that had already failed miserably earlier in the game.

Don't let that West Virginia upset fool you - Pitt's coordinators and the talent brought in by Wanny's recruiting (his best strength) were more responsible for Pitt's success than the Wannstache.

Which means take his decision on playing Palko over Flacco with a grain of salt. Palko was a solid college QB and had starter experience, as opposed to Flacco, who was unproven. And Wanny tried to keep Flacco at Pitt - he wouldn't release him from his scholarship and forced him to sit out a season.

Jonny
04-11-2008, 07:12 AM
Flacco couldn't cut it at Pitt...and they stunk. Overrated and a wasted pick by some team. He will never be anymore then a backup.

That's not really true. Palko was a good college QB, and Flacco didn't fit the scheme. Pitt had a good year before Wannstedt came in.

Larry121283
04-11-2008, 08:01 AM
What a counterproductive thread.

The only thing proven here is that Matt Ryan is still as average and mediocre as the rest of the QBs in the class at best.

I am glad my team doesn't need a QB this year.

Larry121283
04-11-2008, 08:04 AM
If you're going to look at statistics, then focus on games started and completion percentage. They're the only stats that correlate with pro success among highly drafted (rds 1-2) quarterbacks:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2006/03/23/ramblings/stat-analysis/3774/

I have huge issues with Lewin's work, but it was quite groundbreaking when he first published the article and the immediate (and meteoric) rise of the draft stock of Kellen Clemens and Kevin Kolb -- not to mention the plagiarization of his work by Gil Brandt -- shows that NFL people have taken it very seriously.
Not really all that groundbreaking...looking at numbers like C% has been used in evaluating talent since the beginning of time.

Evaluating talent has always part numbers, part eye test.

Maybe was just the first to write an article on it.

etk
04-11-2008, 01:15 PM
ya but they also beat teams like MSU, Miami, VT, Georgia Tech, NC State, and Clemson...

MSU - Pathetic defensive backs

Miami - same

VT - Good defensive backs, but Ryan struggled until the last drive. Hmm...

Georgia Tech - Average

NC State - I think they were the worst playmaking defense in the entire ACC.

Clemson - Nothing special.

Geo
04-11-2008, 01:57 PM
Did you ever watch BC play last year? Callender and Purvis were the only bright spots in that receiving core. Our WRs could not catch. The receiving core had a couple games where they were officially credited with 6-7 drops. Challenger and Robinson each had a game with 3 individual drops. In fact I bet BC led the entire NCAA in drops(too bad i can't find that statistic anywhere).

Our receivers were terrible. At least 3 of Ryan's interceptions were balls that they tipped; I wouldn't be shocked if it was 5. If Tony Gonzalez(not related to the Chief's player) was still on the team last year, Ryan would be the consensus #1 pick in this draft.

Purvis will get drafted, Callendar will get drafted, but I would be shocked if the others do. Gunnell is young so he still has some time to develop and may eventually become a solid reciever.
Can't recall exactly, but I'm not sure BC's offensive line was as stout last season as it usually is. As we expect it to be, they produce good offensive lineman at BC. Cherilus was playing at LT out of need, and did an okay job, but he is a stellar RT.

I've been wondering about Tony Gonzalez from BC. Did he ever get to a camp? I thought he was okay and liked what I saw of him, but could never find any word if and how he did anything with the pros.