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View Full Version : a Challenge for ONE super-fan


AtariBigby
04-11-2008, 09:14 AM
I don't have time, maybe someone else does?

I'd like to see how often that the first QB taken in a draft actually ends up being the BEST QB from that year's draft.

Most of them have to be clear-cut yes or no.

In the case of Elway (#1) and Marino (#6 QB of the same class), that can be called a tie.

In the case of Eli Manning #1, Rivers #2, and Roethlisberger #3, I don't know how to call that one....... but all others should be obvious.

Anyone have time to do something like this today? If not, I might this weekend.

The point I am getting at is I do not think that Matt Ryan will be the best QB from this class. Will there be another Favre from round 2? Or Brady from round 5 or 6? Montana from round 3? Romo undrafted? Kurt Warner undrafted? Drew Brees in round 2?
I'd say there's a better chance of that then Ryan being an Aikman or Peyton Manning for sure.

Sveen
04-11-2008, 10:29 AM
Here (http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=position) is the list of all QB's drafted since 1936.

toonsterwu
04-11-2008, 11:46 AM
Using the at least 3 years rule (thus, 2006 and 2007 judgments can wait). My perspective.

2005 - I think most would say Derek Anderson is the best. Of course, that's because Alex Smith is coming off a poor year. Last year at this time, most would've said Alex. Somewhat up in the air, but used the 3 year rule.

2004 - Certainly more debatable, but I'd go with Rothlisberger. A case could be made for Eli, though.

2003 - I think Carson has clearly been the best QB so far, so there's one top QB that was the best.

2002 - David Garrard looks like the best.

2001 - Drew Brees gets the nod.

2000 - Brady.

1999 - McNabb.

1998 - Easily Peyton. There's the 2nd top QB.

1997 - Plummer.

1996 - Um, ouch. I don't remember that year I guess. I'll go with Tony Banks, so your 3rd top QB being the best of a really bad lot.

1995 - Steve McNair here. 4th top QB to be the best.

1994 - Probably Dilfer.

1993 - Bledsoe. 5th top QB.

1992 - Brad Johnson, 9th rounder.

1991 - Favre.

1990 - Neil O'Donnell.

1989 - Aikman. 6th top QB.

1988 - Probably Chandler. 7th top QB.

Hmm ... that's better ratios than I thought.

Gay Ork Wang
04-11-2008, 11:48 AM
considering 1 vs 10 in about every draft

eaglesalltheway
04-11-2008, 12:15 PM
Using the at least 3 years rule (thus, 2006 and 2007 judgments can wait). My perspective.

2005 - I think most would say Derek Anderson is the best. Of course, that's because Alex Smith is coming off a poor year. Last year at this time, most would've said Alex. Somewhat up in the air, but used the 3 year rule.

2004 - Certainly more debatable, but I'd go with Rothlisberger. A case could be made for Eli, though.

2003 - I think Carson has clearly been the best QB so far, so there's one top QB that was the best.

2002 - David Garrard looks like the best.

2001 - Drew Brees gets the nod.

2000 - Brady.

1999 - McNabb.

1998 - Easily Peyton. There's the 2nd top QB.

1997 - Plummer.

1996 - Um, ouch. I don't remember that year I guess. I'll go with Tony Banks, so your 3rd top QB being the best of a really bad lot.

1995 - Steve McNair here. 4th top QB to be the best.

1994 - Probably Dilfer.

1993 - Bledsoe. 5th top QB.

1992 - Brad Johnson, 9th rounder.

1991 - Favre.

1990 - Neil O'Donnell.

1989 - Aikman. 6th top QB.

1988 - Probably Chandler. 7th top QB.

Hmm ... that's better ratios than I thought.

That is what i was thinking too.(referencing ratios)

Brothgar
04-11-2008, 12:53 PM
Using the at least 3 years rule (thus, 2006 and 2007 judgments can wait). My perspective.

2005 - I think most would say Derek Anderson is the best. Of course, that's because Alex Smith is coming off a poor year. Last year at this time, most would've said Alex. Somewhat up in the air, but used the 3 year rule.

2004 - Certainly more debatable, but I'd go with Rothlisberger. A case could be made for Eli, though.

2003 - I think Carson has clearly been the best QB so far, so there's one top QB that was the best.

2002 - David Garrard looks like the best.

2001 - Drew Brees gets the nod.

2000 - Brady.

1999 - McNabb.

1998 - Easily Peyton. There's the 2nd top QB.

1997 - Plummer.

1996 - Um, ouch. I don't remember that year I guess. I'll go with Tony Banks, so your 3rd top QB being the best of a really bad lot.

1995 - Steve McNair here. 4th top QB to be the best.

1994 - Probably Dilfer.

1993 - Bledsoe. 5th top QB.

1992 - Brad Johnson, 9th rounder.

1991 - Favre.

1990 - Neil O'Donnell.

1989 - Aikman. 6th top QB.

1988 - Probably Chandler. 7th top QB.

Hmm ... that's better ratios than I thought.

Before 87 it really goes in favour of the first QB taken

1987 - Jim Harbaugh = Vinny Testaverde (1st QB taken) > Rich Gannon

1986 - Jim Everett (1st QB taken)> Chuck Long

1985 - Randall Cunningham (First QB Taken) > Doug Flutie > Steve Bono > Bernie Kosar

1984 - Steve Young > Boomer Esiason (1st QB taken) > Jeff Hostetler

1983 - Elway (1st QB taken) = Marino > Jim Kelly > Ken O'Brian (ha ha Jets)

That's as far as I'm willing to go.

AtariBigby
04-11-2008, 01:41 PM
So what percentage has the first QB taken actually turned out to be a star?

By the way, Aaron Rodgers is, and always was, better than Alex Smith. He was better in college, and was rated higher coming out..... until the combine BS and his better size being foolishly criteria'd too much.
In 1991, Seattle's War Room was split on who to draft between QB Brett Favre and QB Dan McGwire. So the owner at that time asked "which one is taller". They said McGwire, so he replied "Take McGwire then".

Size matters in some things, but QB's and RB's often slip thru the cracks because they are 'too small'.


Anyway, it seems that less than half the time the first QB taken turns out to be the best.
I'm on record here and now saying Matt Ryan will NOT be the best QB from this class.

Gay Ork Wang
04-11-2008, 01:50 PM
its not like the position where he was picked make him better/worse. If favre wouldve been the first one taken he still wouldve been farve...

TheGreatEscape
04-11-2008, 01:54 PM
A lot of a QB's success depends on the team he's drafted by, i hring this when looking at Alex Smith and David Carr, both haven't had any continuity in the coaching and have had limited weapons alongside shoddy oline play, on the otherhand Anderson has a top 10 oline and two of the better young weapons in the game. I'm not high on drafting a QB in the first unless you're sure he's the guy to lead you greatness because otherwise IMO it's better to build up your oline and then grab a developmental guy.

AtariBigby
04-11-2008, 03:59 PM
True.
Wonder what would have happened to Tom Brady if someone like the Lions or Cardinals, or Vikings had selected him in one of the first 198 picks before the Patriots took a flyer on him at pick #199.

Would he still be Tom Brady?
He surely wouldn't have 3 Super Bowl rings, or have impregnated one actress while dating a supermodel at the same time. :o)

Brent
04-11-2008, 04:01 PM
By the way, Aaron Rodgers is, and always was, better than Alex Smith. He was better in college, and was rated higher coming out..... until the combine BS and his better size being foolishly criteria'd too much.
Yeah, that's not blatant bias or anything.

toonsterwu
04-11-2008, 04:30 PM
So what percentage has the first QB taken actually turned out to be a star?

By the way, Aaron Rodgers is, and always was, better than Alex Smith. He was better in college, and was rated higher coming out..... until the combine BS and his better size being foolishly criteria'd too much.
In 1991, Seattle's War Room was split on who to draft between QB Brett Favre and QB Dan McGwire. So the owner at that time asked "which one is taller". They said McGwire, so he replied "Take McGwire then".

Size matters in some things, but QB's and RB's often slip thru the cracks because they are 'too small'.


Anyway, it seems that less than half the time the first QB taken turns out to be the best.
I'm on record here and now saying Matt Ryan will NOT be the best QB from this class.

Rodgers size wasn't the problem. It was more his mechanics and QB IQ that were being questioned, whether fair or not, along with his arm strength. But the reason Smith went ahead, and I had Smith ahead as well, was because, IMO, his QB IQ was ahead of Rodgers.

Addict
04-11-2008, 04:34 PM
Am I the only one who noticed Atari Bigby here stopped capping random words?

AtariBigby
04-11-2008, 07:50 PM
Am I the only one who noticed Atari Bigby here stopped capping random words?

YES you are. Nobody else cares about things like that, which is kinda anal actually.

Back to Rodgers: the main reason the Niners liked Smith more was he was bigger and they thought a better arm. The main knock on Rodgers had nothing to do with Rodgers, but was actually the Jeff Tedford factor. Rodgers got penalized because of the failures of the bums that Tedford previously coached. Rodgers always was a better QB than Smith.

Football IQ is nice, but it's not like whoever's higher will be a better player.

Our only worries about Rodgers is will he stay healthy. Alex Smith has already proven he can't. Same with Leinart and Vince Young.

Brothgar
04-11-2008, 08:07 PM
So what percentage has the first QB taken actually turned out to be a star?

By the way, Aaron Rodgers is, and always was, better than Alex Smith. He was better in college, and was rated higher coming out..... until the combine BS and his better size being foolishly criteria'd too much.
In 1991, Seattle's War Room was split on who to draft between QB Brett Favre and QB Dan McGwire. So the owner at that time asked "which one is taller". They said McGwire, so he replied "Take McGwire then".

Size matters in some things, but QB's and RB's often slip thru the cracks because they are 'too small'.


Anyway, it seems that less than half the time the first QB taken turns out to be the best.
I'm on record here and now saying Matt Ryan will NOT be the best QB from this class.

the percentage is 45.456% - 54.545% from 1983 - 2005 its looking to increase when you include 06 next year. One of them was a lucky finds (Steve Young > Boomer ) (I even without Tom Brady Marc Bulger > Chad Pennington)

Brothgar
04-11-2008, 08:21 PM
Since that is essentially taken care of here is another draft myth/truth I'd like to tackle. What percentage of QB's taken in each round 1-7 have been to at least 1 probowl? + rep for the answer (as I am too lazy to do it myself)

Cashmoney
04-11-2008, 08:36 PM
YES you are. Nobody else cares about things like that, which is kinda anal actually.

Back to Rodgers: the main reason the Niners liked Smith more was he was bigger and they thought a better arm. The main knock on Rodgers had nothing to do with Rodgers, but was actually the Jeff Tedford factor. Rodgers got penalized because of the failures of the bums that Tedford previously coached. Rodgers always was a better QB than Smith.

Football IQ is nice, but it's not like whoever's higher will be a better player.

Our only worries about Rodgers is will he stay healthy. Alex Smith has already proven he can't. Same with Leinart and Vince Young.

Please explain how Vince Young has PROVEN he can't stay healthy.

AtariBigby
04-12-2008, 09:51 AM
Please explain how Vince Young has PROVEN he can't stay healthy.

Did he miss more starts in his 2-year career as Favre did in his 17 year career?
That's what I mean.... also Peyton Manning has missed zero starts as well in 10 seasons.

AtariBigby
04-12-2008, 09:53 AM
So who here thinks that MATT RYAN will end up being the best QB from the class of 2008?

I say NO.

I'll take the field, which includes Brohm, Henne, Booty, Brennan, Keller, Woodson, Johnson, and all the others. Remember a year ago, had Brennan or Brohm declared, they'd have been very high picks. And Woodson 3/4 of the way thru this season was a first rounder too. Things change.

bam bam
04-12-2008, 10:33 AM
Yeah, that's not blatant bias or anything.

Neither is that

bam bam
04-12-2008, 10:35 AM
Am I the only one who noticed Atari Bigby here stopped capping random words?

and am I the only one here who has noticed his unhealthy obsession for another grown man?

LonghornsLegend
04-12-2008, 10:52 AM
Did he miss more starts in his 2-year career as Favre did in his 17 year career?
That's what I mean.... also Peyton Manning has missed zero starts as well in 10 seasons.

Everybody would be injury prone if you try to compare then to Favre or Peyton manning, lets be serious...

sprawwl
04-12-2008, 03:13 PM
YES you are. Nobody else cares about things like that, which is kinda anal actually.

Nah, I saw it too.

neko4
04-12-2008, 03:44 PM
YES you are. Nobody else cares about things like that, which is kinda anal actually.

Back to Rodgers: the main reason the Niners liked Smith more was he was bigger and they thought a better arm. The main knock on Rodgers had nothing to do with Rodgers, but was actually the Jeff Tedford factor. Rodgers got penalized because of the failures of the bums that Tedford previously coached. Rodgers always was a better QB than Smith.

Football IQ is nice, but it's not like whoever's higher will be a better player.

Our only worries about Rodgers is will he stay healthy. Alex Smith has already proven he can't. Same with Leinart and Vince Young.

And ya know Alex Smith was incredibly smart both on the field and off

Also how has Alex Smith proven he cant stay healthy, in 06 he threw every single pass for the niners, the first ever guy to do that