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View Full Version : Football Outsiders examines runningbacks and 40 times


Geo
04-11-2008, 02:29 PM
FO on ESPN: Combine Stats Not Created Equal. (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3337822)

Interesting article and formula, necessarily adjusting 40 time for weight.

AOL Sports blog provides the calculated scores for this year's RB class. (http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2008/04/10/draft-sleeper-watch-keep-an-eye-on-chad-simpson/#cont)

Thunder&Lightning
04-11-2008, 02:32 PM
nice finds dude

princefielder28
04-11-2008, 02:33 PM
Other than Parleme and Simpson all the top RBs fit the ranking

ammandss
04-11-2008, 02:44 PM
That's a nice read. I was definitely feeling like something was missing until I read the other article that went through this year's RB class.

sprawwl
04-12-2008, 09:36 PM
Well... I guess it makes sense that the bigger and faster you are, the more likely you are to do well.

TheBuffaloBills
04-12-2008, 11:07 PM
Hmmm really good.

JagHombre22
04-12-2008, 11:57 PM
nice find....!!!

I_C_DeadPeople
04-13-2008, 10:32 AM
They call Chris Perry a bust..that is not definable. More like busted up, as in injured. His only full season though showed 60 catches and 600 yards rushing as a compliment to Rudi Johnson.

Solomon
04-14-2008, 12:12 AM
Wow, they mention Luke Staley in one of those articles. He won the Doak Walker, was 6ft 1 and 227 lbs and ran a 4.42 40 at the combine. If injuries hadn't derailed his career he might've changed how scouts evaluate white RBs.

jnew76
04-14-2008, 12:37 AM
Other than Parleme and Simpson all the top RBs fit the ranking

I have been saying that Parmele and to a lesser extent Simpson should be drafted much higher than most think. Parmele is my #6 RB and I think he will be the biggest steal in the draft if drafted after the 3rd. Of course that is all dependent on the situation he is drafted into. They do say in the AOL article that he is considered a high pick and that is the first I have heard of that. I do think that people are really waking up to him.

DeathbyStat
04-14-2008, 08:10 AM
Can some calculate the ajusted forty time values for this years propects?

I'm too lazy.

Larry121283
04-14-2008, 08:12 AM
Can some calculate the ajusted forty time values for this years propects?

I'm too lazy.
Too lazy to even click links?

One of the articles that was posted has them for this years players.

DeathbyStat
04-14-2008, 10:36 AM
Too lazy to even click links?

One of the articles that was posted has them for this years players.

Sorry i didn't see that

MasterShake
04-14-2008, 01:37 PM
Frank Gore does not score well here...

He was maybe 215 lbs coming out and ran something like a 4.65

That gives him a lowly 92 adjusted score, so this isn't to be taken as the end all and be all, but it seems to work well most of the time.

Larry121283
04-14-2008, 02:06 PM
I don't know how Rudi Johnson supposedly scored high.

I don't think he ran at all at the combine (did work out though) and then ran like a 4.7+ at his pro day.

Like always, this could be a nice tool just to get a decent gauge of who is who and what is what, but at the end of the day, I don't see how this tells you anything you didn't already know.

McFadden, Stewart, Mendenhall are studs and all could be great. Chris Johnson is a sleeper (weren't there 23423048 threads after his bowl game on here?) as are Chad Simpson and Jalen Parmele (read it somewhere on here or another forum a few weeks ago). Ray Rice and Steve Slaton are buyer beware players that teams will be all over the map on.

Larry121283
04-14-2008, 03:06 PM
I am bored at work, so I just did some figgerin'...

Here are some of the All-Time rushing leaders results in terms of this...now, they aren't the most accurate in the world, as combine numbers are not easily accessible, the numbers are rounded figures. So, give or take a few points on each player.

Emmitt Smith = 81
Barry Sanders = 111
Walter Payton = 97
Eric Dickerson = 112
Tony Dorsett = 106
Thurman Thomas = 111
Jim Brown = 129

As for All-World athlete, Bo Jackson...he would have scored a 156 in this.

Since I am bored, I'll try and hit up a few draft classes that we can now discuss on this topic.

StaticGator
04-14-2008, 03:08 PM
They call Chris Perry a bust..that is not definable. More like busted up, as in injured. His only full season though showed 60 catches and 600 yards rushing as a compliment to Rudi Johnson.

It could be argued Perry's lack of size and speed caused him to absorb more hits than his body could withstand, so it's still related.

DragonFireKai
04-14-2008, 03:10 PM
Frank Gore does not score well here...

He was maybe 215 lbs coming out and ran something like a 4.65

That gives him a lowly 92 adjusted score, so this isn't to be taken as the end all and be all, but it seems to work well most of the time.

Frank Gore was also coming off multiple ACL tears when he went through the draft. It's similar to another miami running back, Willis McGahee, who would have had a really low score if they made him run the 40 when he came out. Once Gore finished his rehabbing, he probably ran a bit faster, and thus scored a lot higher.

ChezPower4
04-14-2008, 03:21 PM
nice find, always interesting to see sports broken down into fomulas

Larry121283
04-14-2008, 03:29 PM
2003 NFL Combine...again, these are the closest 40 times from that event that I can find...

Willis McGahee = 113
Larry Johnson = 106
Musa Smith = 118
Chris Brown = 111
Justin Fargas = 122
Lee Suggs = 104
Onterrio Smith = 104
Quentin Griffin = 97
Domanick Davis (Williams) = 96
Artose Pinner = 95
LaBrandon Toefield = 104

Larry121283
04-14-2008, 03:59 PM
2002 - only for players that ran at the combine. I didn't find anything for Clinton Portis and TJ Duckett who didn't run at the combine.

William Green = 98
DeShaun Foster = 101
Mo Morris = 98
Ladell Betts = 96
Lamar Gordon = 100
Brian Westbrook = 91
Travis Stephens = 86
Larry Ned = 96
Brian Allen = 103
Chester Taylor = 96
Rock Cartwright = 118

2004

Steven Jackson = 117
Chris Perry = 102
Kevin Jones = 123
Tatum Bell = 115
Julius Jones = 107
Greg Jones = 116
Mewelde Moore = 86
Cedric Cobbs = 87
Burner Turner = 116

WCH
04-14-2008, 08:13 PM
I actually had a spreadsheet on hand with information on most of the RBs drafted in the past several seasons. Here's the data:

123.5042454 Brandon Jacobs
123.3557536 Kevin Jones
122.7289803 Chris Henry
122.3255234 Justin Fargas
120.9959996 Ronnie Brown
118.3253878 Musa Smith
117.8153646 Steven Jackson
116.8348202 Eric Shelton
116.6253547 Michael Turner
116.2626208 Tatum Bell
116.2218778 DeShawn Wynn
116.1940143 Greg Jones
115.7921249 Adrian Peterson
114.1913121 J.J. Arrington
114.1913121 Joseph Addai
113.7351788 Willis McGahee
112.6872614 Cadillac Williams
112.6469046 Nehemiah Broughton
112.056895 Jerious Norwood
111.4659599 Maurice Jones-Drew
111.2021647 Chris Brown
110.4560822 Antonio Pittman
110.2301263 Reggie Bush
109.2296697 Onterrio Smith
109.1449698 DeAngelo Williams
108.751913 Marion Barber
108.6748428 Marshawn Lynch
108.2890879 Brian Leonard
107.7401742 Laurence Maroney
107.3007164 Kolby Smith
107.2046631 Julius Jones
106.3945191 Larry Johnson
106.3252553 Quinton Ganther
106.2506787 Wali Lundy
106.1475209 Ryan Moats
105.8636869 Brandon Miree
105.3263358 Leon Washington
105.2804905 Manuel White
104.076958 LaBrandon Toefield
103.9559819 Lee Suggs
102.7250882 Adimchinobe Echemandu
102.6666582 Casey Moore
102.6613781 Chris Perry
101.7280929 Damien Nash
100.6922303 Jerome Harrison
100.5035002 Quincy Wilson
100.157819 Garrett Wolfe
99.65244315 Cedric Humes
99.63428584 Cedric Houston
99.16345353 Lionel Gates
98.86120028 Brandon Jackson
97.45745541 Cedric Benson
97.14098534 Tony Hunt
96.81720726 Quentin Griffin
96.81612294 Domanick Williams (Davis)
96.69882031 Dwayne Wright
96.54369758 Lorenzo Booker
96.44966044 DeAndra Cobb
95.47332894 Artose Pinner
95.45251558 Frank Gore
95.45251558 Kenny Irons
95.39443654 AhMaad Galloway
94.87734546 Thomas Clayton
94.57923293 Madison Hedgecock
94.08890821 Ciatric Fason
93.67884115 Darren Sproles
92.3952403 Ahmad Bradshaw
92.33616793 P.J. Daniels
92.30625482 Thomas Tapeh
92.16398675 Brian Calhoun
90.52517365 Alvin Pearman
89.91293819 Vernand Morency
89.40554815 Mewelde Moore
89.33644462 Noah Herron
87.61135964 Cedric Cobbs
87.38075202 Jason Snelling
82.89684702 Kenneth Darby

That's the computed numbers on 76 RBs. Sorry about the length, everybody.

Larry121283
04-14-2008, 09:37 PM
What these lists tell me is...

This method is worthless...

zero correlation.

DragonFireKai
04-14-2008, 09:43 PM
What these lists tell me is...

This method is worthless...

zero correlation.

Did you read the article? Or plot out the values? Or did you just eyeball the chart, find a few outliers, and make a blanket judgement?

Larry121283
04-15-2008, 07:50 AM
Did you read this thread...I also did three draft classes and some of the greatest runners of all time BEFORE that gentleman put his list out there.

I've done my homework, and I find a zero correlation to a runners success. You have runners all over the map in terms of success/fail.

DCBills
04-15-2008, 08:24 AM
Did you read this thread...I also did three draft classes and some of the greatest runners of all time BEFORE that gentleman put his list out there.

I've done my homework, and I find a zero correlation to a runners success. You have runners all over the map in terms of success/fail.

there are definitely many outliers, but the top of the list has a lot more successful running backs than the bottom of the list - the bottom 20 has about 2 or 3 decent rbs (including Gore who's number is probably off due to injury); the top 20 had predominantly successful backs, around 12 or 13. I'd say there's decent correlation there. Certainty for success? my God no.

Larry121283
04-15-2008, 09:53 AM
there are definitely many outliers, but the top of the list has a lot more successful running backs than the bottom of the list - the bottom 20 has about 2 or 3 decent rbs (including Gore who's number is probably off due to injury); the top 20 had predominantly successful backs, around 12 or 13. I'd say there's decent correlation there. Certainty for success? my God no.

That is simply the last few years of draft classes, and there is a lot wrong with the list on the whole.

If you were to expand it and add other draft classes and the like, it'd get worse, because runners from "the day" didn't often run 4.4's thus, you'll be getting weaker results and more players in the 90's that had solid to great careers. Might even start to see some more runners with 80's scores ala Emmitt.

WCH
04-15-2008, 10:57 AM
There obviously isn't "zero correlation." There's a "moderate correlation."

What they've basically done is mathematically define "size/speed ratio" and found that it acounts for roughly 20% of the variation in RB success at the NFL level.

The other 80% is something else. From this, we can probably conclude that Mike Hart isn't worth a draft pick, but I certainly am not about to proclaim Chris Johnson as being one of the top-2 backs in this draft.

Brothgar
04-15-2008, 01:26 PM
Did you read this thread...I also did three draft classes and some of the greatest runners of all time BEFORE that gentleman put his list out there.

I've done my homework, and I find a zero correlation to a runners success. You have runners all over the map in terms of success/fail.

Well according to the article there is a .36 correlation with success when success is defined by Rushes, rushing yards, and DPAR

DPAR: Defense-adjusted points above replacement. A Football Outsiders stat that compares the performance of each player, in terms of DVOA, to a baseline set not at average but roughly 14 percent below average. This statistic will increase the rating for players who have a high usage, even if their performance is average, demonstrating the importance of workhorse running backs and receivers who can draw the attention of the defense away from other players.

DVOA: The main statistic used by Football Outsiders, DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), breaks down the entire season play by play, comparing the success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables, including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter and opponent quality.
While it can be used as a measure of total team performance, it differs from other power ratings found throughout the Web because it can be broken down to analyze team effectiveness in any number of ways: down, quarter, rushing vs. receiving, location on field, passes to backs vs. passes to receivers, etc. It can also be used to analyze specific players.

For more on how DVOA is computed, read the explanation at FootballOutsiders.com. You can find current total DVOA ratings for 2007 on this page.

Current DVOA can be found here.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff.php

umphrey
04-15-2008, 01:33 PM
So what impact do you think Chris Johnson (highest adjusted and overall 40 time) will have as a rookie and who do you think might draft him?

Brothgar
04-15-2008, 01:48 PM
So what impact do you think Chris Johnson (highest adjusted and overall 40 time) will have as a rookie and who do you think might draft him?

Lions please! Not likely. But anyway I have a feeling he is going to be a Cowboy. (Not Felix Jones who BTW is sitting right behind Jamaal Charles) and I think he will at least have an immediate impact on the return game and if I'm right he will likely be a major part of the Cowboy running game.