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View Full Version : The Joe Staley trade one year later


Geo
04-11-2008, 03:20 PM
The Joe Staley trade one year later (http://www.sacbee.com/static/weblogs/49ers/archives/011733.html), by 49ers beat writer Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee. Very interesting read, check it out.

I agree in thinking the trade was worth it for the 49ers, as I think Staley works out to be a (very) good LT and the 49ers obviously need that. That's one of the premium positions in the league, and the 49ers are paying Staley as the 28th pick in the 2007 Draft instead of paying a 7th overall pick. Goodness knows they've spent enough money on Top 10 picks in recent years, and Willis is the only one producing much at the moment.

I'm not sure how many realize this, but assuming everyone plays well through their rookie contracts, the 7th overall pick costs more than or almost as much as Willis, Staley, and the 29th overall pick this year combined. Unless the 7th overall guy disappoints and/or doesn't reach incentives I suppose, like Cedric Benson.

But I do think it's presumptious to assume the 49ers could have just taken Tony Ugoh with the 42nd overall pick. Who's to say how they graded Ugoh exactly, and they could have still accepted the trade from the Colts to get their 08 1st round pick. Sure in retrospect they could have done that, but teams could do a number of things differently in retrospect.

DragonFireKai
04-11-2008, 03:24 PM
I love these kind of retrospectives when their done well. The best one I've seen was a 5 year retrospective look at the Tomlinson Vick trade done by FO. They figured out that both teams were worse off than they would have been not making the trade.

farfromforgotten
04-11-2008, 03:29 PM
Good article. I've made similar claims on here about why I'm not bummed that the 49ers dont have the 7th pick in this years draft. I never really thought about the money part of it though.

toonsterwu
04-11-2008, 03:32 PM
I thought it was a grade trade then, and I still think it's a good trade now. Whether or not a trade works out should not be the defining factor as to whether or not it's a good trade. Certainly, it should play a role, and we won't know for a few more years how it will turn out.

That said, the dynamics at the time certainly should be a factor. And at the time, the 49ers were coming off a much improved year with a lot of optimism. They had been aggressive in free agency, adding players that many believed shored up key needs for them. Their QB looked like he was on the way up.

They were aggressive, and I don't think you can fault them for that, particularly since their rumored targets were Bowe or Staley. Both were potential areas of need for them, and LT is obviously a premium position. Most believed that there was another dip after Staley last year as well, although not as big as the Levi Brown to Joe Staley dip.

LonghornsLegend
04-11-2008, 03:42 PM
Well, its too a little early...They would of probably taken Clady this year, if he ends up a HOF and Staley ends up solid they probably wont look at the trade the same...in the short term yes its fine because of the cost, and you get your guy earlier to get seasoned alot sooner..But if the gap between Staley and Clady or Williams isnt that huge, great trade for the Niners.

619
04-11-2008, 03:45 PM
I don't think the gap between Staley and let's say the #2 OT this year is that big anyways so it looks to be an all-around great trade especially when you take into account the financial differences.

toonsterwu
04-11-2008, 03:46 PM
In a hypothetical situation where they didn't deal up last year, still did poorly, and had their pick, I would think they would look awful long at Matt Ryan. As much as I am a fan of Alex Smith, he hasn't done enough. Shaun Hill and JT O'Sullivan really shouldn't be challenging for starting jobs. Considering the deep OT class, they might've felt comfortable waiting a round for OT help (perhaps a similarly athletic OT like Duane Brown in the 2nd).

Of course, this scenario doesn't exist.

49ersfan_87
04-11-2008, 04:13 PM
In a hypothetical situation where they didn't deal up last year, still did poorly, and had their pick, I would think they would look awful long at Matt Ryan. As much as I am a fan of Alex Smith, he hasn't done enough. Shaun Hill and JT O'Sullivan really shouldn't be challenging for starting jobs. Considering the deep OT class, they might've felt comfortable waiting a round for OT help (perhaps a similarly athletic OT like Duane Brown in the 2nd).

Of course, this scenario doesn't exist.

I dont know. I dont want to sound like a homer because i think a lot of the board believes he is a bust, but last season is almost a wash. He played 3 games with the worst offensive line and WR core (led the league in drops at that time) and a terrible rookie OC. Then he goes and seperates his shoulder after 1 series in week 4, and when he comes back he looks terrible because of that injury which is causing innacuracy.

Smith definitely has his faults (shoddy mechanics) but i think they would stick with him and hopefully Martz will mold him. If the 49ers had the #7 pick, i think Martz would play a big factor. Smith hasnt been traded like Harrington was in Detroit after Martz came aboard and no attempt has been made to sign a QB in FA other than J.T. O'Sullivan getting a small deal to be the 3rd QB. Hopefully Smith gets his act together...he was looked at as a breakout player this time last year.

As for the Staley trade...during the season i hated it. It was embarassing because at one point the 49ers had the #2 pick and at times Staley played downright awful. But looking back he only had 3 bad games (Browns, Giants, Cardinals week 1) and he was otherwise average-good. Staley is more a LT than a RT, and hopefully he makes the transition smoothly.

toonsterwu
04-11-2008, 04:18 PM
Oh, I don't think Smith is a bust at all. I think there were extenuating circumstances. Certainly, a level of blame should be placed on Smith, but not all of it. Nolan deserves a lot of blame as well, as he made the decision to go with Hostetler.

That said, I think they would give awful long thought to Ryan. I mean, Smith would've entered his 4th year with one good year under his belt. Albeit, there would be 4 more years (assuming they had picked it up as they did) and Smith is awfully young (only 24 later this year, I think). That said, maybe they would go Ot and then look at a Brohm, or move up for him (and there are still rumors they may look at QB, particularly if the board doesn't shake out how they want it). Short of it is, I think pondering a QB would've been a facotr. Not saying they would or would've, but it had to be a consideration.

But this is, well, just a hypothetical.

no love
04-11-2008, 05:47 PM
When is the last time you have seen a Martz offense run by a high-round pick though...

thebow305
04-11-2008, 07:36 PM
Damn San Fran! Now the Pats have the 7th overall pick because of JOE STALEY. I don't care what is said, any way you look at it, it's bad!

Larry121283
04-11-2008, 07:55 PM
Still gets an N/A from me.

He did allow 9 sacks last year as a first year player. It isn't D'Brickashaw Ferguson bad, but obviously you'd want to see better play there in pass protection.

He also was average in run blocking ranking 16th in the league in runs behind the left tackle.

Still have a long ways to wait and see on this one. I won't jump the gun on it. Ugoh proved to have a great, GREAT year as a rookie, however, the Colts' scheme and coaching staff could have been the reason for that (coupled with Ugoh's play, obviously.

The good news...only 2 false starts and 1 holding penalty all year.

Would he have been the #7 overall player in the draft this year? Probably not. So, that is making me lean toward "no" at the moment...but we will see as time comes and goes on this one where Staley ends up in regards to this class.

ninerfan
04-11-2008, 10:25 PM
I love Staley and his rookie year. I think he'll be a star for us for years so I'm not unhappy with the trade. Our pathetic year means that he will spend his career with that trade hanging over his head which is unfortunate. At pick #7 its iffy but what if we had of performed to mild expectations and the pick was #15 or performed better and it was pick #21 ?

Whats the pick number that most people would be happy with this trade ?

BlindSite
04-11-2008, 10:49 PM
Oh, I don't think Smith is a bust at all. I think there were extenuating circumstances. Certainly, a level of blame should be placed on Smith, but not all of it. Nolan deserves a lot of blame as well, as he made the decision to go with Hostetler.

That said, I think they would give awful long thought to Ryan. I mean, Smith would've entered his 4th year with one good year under his belt. Albeit, there would be 4 more years (assuming they had picked it up as they did) and Smith is awfully young (only 24 later this year, I think). That said, maybe they would go Ot and then look at a Brohm, or move up for him (and there are still rumors they may look at QB, particularly if the board doesn't shake out how they want it). Short of it is, I think pondering a QB would've been a facotr. Not saying they would or would've, but it had to be a consideration.

But this is, well, just a hypothetical.

Matt Ryan is exactly one year younger than Alex Smith and it would probably take him a year to be at Smith's level of development.

I agree they'd look but I think they'd realise they'd break the bank for a guy less developed and just a year younger than their current starter.

MidwayMonster31
04-12-2008, 12:07 AM
The jury's still out.
A lot of it will depend on what the Patriots turn that pick into. Especially considering how much stronger (hypothetically) last year's class was. Staley can turn into a very good left tackle. He probably won't be elite, but very good. I also agree with Toonster that the 49ers wanted to make more progress for the present.
The same thing was said about the Eli Manning trade, now the Chargers have everything, except for the super bowl ring Manning has.

Iamcanadian
04-12-2008, 01:31 AM
IMO, the trade stunk. Nolan was in charge of San Fran's draft and he is getting desperate to save his job and made a ridiculous trade which can only be discribed as a disaster for San Fran.
Staley is no sure thing to be a solid LT while New England will get a real stud. That's why it is always dangerous to allow a HC to run your draft. If he's in trouble, he can panic and set a franchise back considerably. Overall, Nolan has been a disaster for San Fran at the draft table. I've said for a long time that he reminds me of Butch Davis, the ex Cleveland HC.

farfromforgotten
04-12-2008, 07:04 AM
IMO, the trade stunk. Nolan was in charge of San Fran's draft and he is getting desperate to save his job and made a ridiculous trade which can only be discribed as a disaster for San Fran.
Staley is no sure thing to be a solid LT while New England will get a real stud. That's why it is always dangerous to allow a HC to run your draft. If he's in trouble, he can panic and set a franchise back considerably. Overall, Nolan has been a disaster for San Fran at the draft table. I've said for a long time that he reminds me of Butch Davis, the ex Cleveland HC.

Can only be described as a disaster? It seems that out of all of these posts you are the only one to think that way so far. At the time it was a very good trade. This was a young team on the way up.

What real stud will New England get at pick #7? There is a good chance that Jake Long, Chris Long, Glenn Dorsey, Darren McFadden, Vernon Gholston and Sedrick Ellis could all be off the board by the time they pick and they would have to pay someone else #7 draft money.

I'm not a big fan of Nolans but he has brought in Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Joe Staley, Patrick Willis and Manny Lawson in recent drafts. I consider that pretty good drafting. We had the misfortune of picking #1 in need of a QB in a year that there were no real franchise QBs available and ended up with Alex Smith.

Iamcanadian
04-12-2008, 10:07 AM
Can only be described as a disaster? It seems that out of all of these posts you are the only one to think that way so far. At the time it was a very good trade. This was a young team on the way up.

What real stud will New England get at pick #7? There is a good chance that Jake Long, Chris Long, Glenn Dorsey, Darren McFadden, Vernon Gholston and Sedrick Ellis could all be off the board by the time they pick and they would have to pay someone else #7 draft money.

I'm not a big fan of Nolans but he has brought in Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Joe Staley, Patrick Willis and Manny Lawson in recent drafts. I consider that pretty good drafting. We had the misfortune of picking #1 in need of a QB in a year that there were no real franchise QBs available and ended up with Alex Smith.

Unfortunately, they went down, and if you don't think New England will get a real stud at #7, then you are kidding yourself. I still think the trade was a very poor decision considering that the current crop of OT's is the best in 20 years and he could have made the trade this year selecting a far superior OT prospect at #7 and then trading up to fill another position of need if he wanted. He jumped the gun and there is no guarantee that Staley will make a smooth transition to LT.
I still really like Alex Smith but let's face it, it is a make or break season for him under QB guru Martz. If Martz can bring him up to snuff, then San Fran has a legitimate chance to compete but if he doesn't breakout, San Fran becomes a team that will be a bottom feeder for at least 3 or 4 more seasons until they solve that QB position.

bruschis4all
04-12-2008, 10:26 AM
This is the classic. I'm glad she's my girlfriend. Instead of that other *****(hotter chick) because she can cook better. Don't forget the Pats got an extra 4th. Which turned out to be R.Moss. They may not even use the 7th pick. They could trade down again. What about 7 for both Dallas firsts. Say, NE on the clock at 29 and someone has to move up for B.Brohm. OK, we want your 2nd this year and first in 09. That's how you work the draft.

YAYareaRB
04-12-2008, 10:41 AM
Unfortunately, they went down, and if you don't think New England will get a real stud at #7, then you are kidding yourself. I still think the trade was a very poor decision considering that the current crop of OT's is the best in 20 years and he could have made the trade this year selecting a far superior OT prospect at #7 and then trading up to fill another position of need if he wanted. He jumped the gun and there is no guarantee that Staley will make a smooth transition to LT.
I still really like Alex Smith but let's face it, it is a make or break season for him under QB guru Martz. If Martz can bring him up to snuff, then San Fran has a legitimate chance to compete but if he doesn't breakout, San Fran becomes a team that will be a bottom feeder for at least 3 or 4 more seasons until they solve that QB position.

Well, in general, anyone moving from RT to LT is obviously gonna have questions about the transition. Can they play with the opposite hand down? How good are they river siding their mechanics to fit the position? But I'll tell you, Joe Staley has great mechanics. His footwork is up to par if not better than most of the OTs in this draft.

I think Nolan does a great job drafting. He's very aggressive in getting what he wants. There's no way telling that this year's OT class would have been as good as it is last year. But in terms of the 07 OT Class, Joe Staley has performed just as well if not better than Brown or Thomas.

WhatWouldBillyBajemaDo?
04-12-2008, 11:01 AM
IMO, the trade stunk. Nolan was in charge of San Fran's draft and he is getting desperate to save his job and made a ridiculous trade which can only be discribed as a disaster for San Fran.
Staley is no sure thing to be a solid LT while New England will get a real stud. That's why it is always dangerous to allow a HC to run your draft. If he's in trouble, he can panic and set a franchise back considerably. Overall, Nolan has been a disaster for San Fran at the draft table. I've said for a long time that he reminds me of Butch Davis, the ex Cleveland HC.

At the time of the deal Nolan was not desperate to save his job. He had SF coming off a season where they stayed in playoff race till the second to last game of the season. The team was showing strides of improvement and I really can't fault him for making the move. Plus with how terrible Kwame Harris had played and how oftened Jones Jennings is injured he needed to bring some stability to the line. Personally, at the time, I thought at worst the 49ers would be picking 14 or 15 in this year's draft. So that is why I really had no issue with the trade.

Also I don't agree with the Butch Davis comparison. I have been very pleased with the draft classes Nolan-McCloughan have put together. The biggest issue they have run into is injury. All the core guys have missed time with significant injuries. To me this is make or break for the '05 class because they finally have all the day one picks (Smith, Baas, Gore, Snyder) starting and it will give us an idea of how well they did on that draft.

MasterShake
04-12-2008, 12:25 PM
Unfortunately, they went down, and if you don't think New England will get a real stud at #7, then you are kidding yourself. I still think the trade was a very poor decision considering that the current crop of OT's is the best in 20 years and he could have made the trade this year selecting a far superior OT prospect at #7 and then trading up to fill another position of need if he wanted. He jumped the gun and there is no guarantee that Staley will make a smooth transition to LT.
I still really like Alex Smith but let's face it, it is a make or break season for him under QB guru Martz. If Martz can bring him up to snuff, then San Fran has a legitimate chance to compete but if he doesn't breakout, San Fran becomes a team that will be a bottom feeder for at least 3 or 4 more seasons until they solve that QB position.

Staley is a natural LT and was playing out of position last year cause you don't want rookies protecting the blindside. Staley is already proven over the course of last year that he is going to be a good player in this league at minimum, his upside is still great.

So the question is would I want a LT who is already proven not to be a bust and could be great for 2 mil a year....or risk 6 mil a year on a LT or other player who has a historically 50% chance to bust?

The answer to me is obvious...I know in your mind the #7 player drafted is automatically a STUD, but he isn't he is a risky investment. Especially in this draft, it seems like #7 could be the worst spot in the whole draft for risk/reward.

CC.SD
04-12-2008, 01:11 PM
I love these kind of retrospectives when their done well. The best one I've seen was a 5 year retrospective look at the Tomlinson Vick trade done by FO. They figured out that both teams were worse off than they would have been not making the trade.

Uh...WHAT? I would challenge you to find anyone to agree with you.

Brent
04-12-2008, 01:29 PM
Overall, Nolan has been a disaster for San Fran at the draft table. I've said for a long time that he reminds me of Butch Davis, the ex Cleveland HC.
2005:
1 1 Alex Smith QB Utah
2 33 David Baas G Michigan
3 65 Frank Gore RB Miami (Fla.)
3 94 Adam Snyder T Oregon
5 137 Ronald Fields DT Mississippi State
5 174 Rasheed Marshall WR West Virginia
6 205 Derrick Johnson CB Washington
7 215 Daven Holly DB Cincinnati
7 223 Marcus Maxwell WR Oregon
7 248 Patrick Estes T Virginia
7 249 Billy Bajema TE Oklahoma State

6 out of 11 players are still on the team.

2006:
1 6 Vernon Davis TE Maryland
1 22 Manny Lawson OLB North Carolina State
3 84 Brandon Williams WR Wisconsin
4 100 Michael Robinson RB Penn State
5 140 Parys Haralson DE Tennessee
6 175 Delanie Walker TE Central Missouri State
6 192 Marcus Hudson DB North Carolina State
6 197 Melvin Oliver DE Louisiana State
7 254 Vickiel Vaughn DB Arkansas

7 out of 9 still on the roster.

2007:
1 11 Patrick Willis ILB Mississippi
1 28 Joe Staley OT Central Michigan
3 76 Jason Hill WR Washington State
3 97 Ray McDonald DE Florida
4 104 Jay Moore LB Nebraska
4 126 Dashon Goldson SAF Washington
4 135 Joe Cohen DT Florida
5 147 Tarell Brown CB Texas
6 186 Thomas Clayton RB Kansas State

9 out of 9 players still on the roster.

I'd say that's pretty good drafting, since 22 out of 29 (75.86%) players are still on the team.

CC.SD
04-12-2008, 01:47 PM
2005:
1 1 Alex Smith QB Utah
2 33 David Baas G Michigan
3 65 Frank Gore RB Miami (Fla.)
3 94 Adam Snyder T Oregon
5 137 Ronald Fields DT Mississippi State
5 174 Rasheed Marshall WR West Virginia
6 205 Derrick Johnson CB Washington
7 215 Daven Holly DB Cincinnati
7 223 Marcus Maxwell WR Oregon
7 248 Patrick Estes T Virginia
7 249 Billy Bajema TE Oklahoma State

6 out of 11 players are still on the team.

2006:
1 6 Vernon Davis TE Maryland
1 22 Manny Lawson OLB North Carolina State
3 84 Brandon Williams WR Wisconsin
4 100 Michael Robinson RB Penn State
5 140 Parys Haralson DE Tennessee
6 175 Delanie Walker TE Central Missouri State
6 192 Marcus Hudson DB North Carolina State
6 197 Melvin Oliver DE Louisiana State
7 254 Vickiel Vaughn DB Arkansas

7 out of 9 still on the roster.

2007:
1 11 Patrick Willis ILB Mississippi
1 28 Joe Staley OT Central Michigan
3 76 Jason Hill WR Washington State
3 97 Ray McDonald DE Florida
4 104 Jay Moore LB Nebraska
4 126 Dashon Goldson SAF Washington
4 135 Joe Cohen DT Florida
5 147 Tarell Brown CB Texas
6 186 Thomas Clayton RB Kansas State

9 out of 9 players still on the roster.

I'd say that's pretty good drafting, since 22 out of 29 (75.86%) players are still on the team.


I seriously disagree with this system of judging drafting ability. Particularly when you include a completely blown #1 overall pick as a good pick because they haven't had the balls to cut him yet.

ninerfan
04-12-2008, 05:29 PM
I seriously disagree with this system of judging drafting ability. Particularly when you include a completely blown #1 overall pick as a good pick because they haven't had the balls to cut him yet.

Completely disagree with this blown no.1 pick crap. The problem is that the 9ers dont know how good Alex could be 4 yrs in. They've botched the OC position soooo much Alex is onto his 4th Co Ordinator in 4 years. The kids never had a chance. The next 2 years will be the test.

luee
04-12-2008, 06:44 PM
I love these kind of retrospectives when their done well. The best one I've seen was a 5 year retrospective look at the Tomlinson Vick trade done by FO. They figured out that both teams were worse off than they would have been not making the trade.

They got a top RB and a good starting QB for a player now in jail. It also allowed them the freedom to make the Eli trade. They became a play-off regular from doormats. Ask the Cons if they would make that trade now.

CC.SD
04-12-2008, 06:47 PM
Completely disagree with this blown no.1 pick crap. The problem is that the 9ers dont know how good Alex could be 4 yrs in. They've botched the OC position soooo much Alex is onto his 4th Co Ordinator in 4 years. The kids never had a chance. The next 2 years will be the test.

I guess so. It's pretty telling though that Aaron Rodgers hasn't started a game and 95% of this board would take him over Alex Smith right now though. and he's a freaking Tedford QB.

49ersfan_87
04-12-2008, 09:35 PM
Completely disagree with this blown no.1 pick crap. The problem is that the 9ers dont know how good Alex could be 4 yrs in. They've botched the OC position soooo much Alex is onto his 4th Co Ordinator in 4 years. The kids never had a chance. The next 2 years will be the test.

Not just the OC, although 3 OC's in 3 years (soon to be 4 in 4 years) has killed him...look at this stat i found

http://sfo.scout.com/a.z?s=69&p=2&c=687001

1. Alex Smith (20.4 percent) - What happened to the 49ers wide receivers? After posting the third-least drops in the league last year, they've been killing Smith and the San Francisco offense by dropping 11 out of 54 catchable throws. They're making Seattle's league-worst 12.5 percent from last year look good. Seven different receivers have drops so far, with running back Frank Gore (http://sfo.scout.com/a.z?s=69&p=8&c=1&nid=2985229) leading the group with 3 drops in just four games. Smith separated his shoulder last weekend, so veteran Trent Dilfer gets his chance

This is after 4 weeks.

Smith actually looked pretty accurate early on in the year...but the drops killed him. 20% is just a staggering rate. And these are catchable balls too, so its not like Smith hanging them out to dry.

Couple that with Smith being sacked 10 times in just over 3 games. That includes the sack in the first drive of week 4 against Seattle, where DT Rocky Bernard split between C Eric Heitmann and LG Larry Allen untouched, seperating Smith's shoulder. The QB just wont improve in circumstances like that.

Smith definitely needs to improve though. Id say his mechanics need a major overhaul, and he needs to develop better pocket presence. We'll see if he improves in those areas or stagnates.

toonsterwu
04-12-2008, 09:51 PM
Alex Smith isn't a bust ... yet. I think this upcoming season is a make or break year. Now, certainly, he does deserve some blame, but hiring Hostler was a poor move. Some of their personnel decisions backfired and they had a lot of injuries.

It's easy to forget that, a year ago, Alex was coming off a year where he had shown good improvement. Of course, that year was under Norv, one of the better OC's in recent memory. But Alex had his completion percentage up to 58, had a QB rating of around 75. Not great numbers, but for a 2nd year QB adjusting to a pro style offense and only 22 years old at the time? Not bad, not bad at all.

Now, this upcoming year, though, is absolutely crucial. That said, I would like to see the Niners add more talent around him. He still doesn't really have a lead receiver, and there's really only one guy on the roster that has lead receiver potential (Jason Hill) but it may be asking too much for Hill to develop so quickly. Vernon Davis has been inconsistent. I imagine Martz will try and adjust to incorporate Vernon in. I'd like to see them get a better backup RB, though, in case Gore goes down. And they still need to shore up the OL with at least a RT, if not another guard.

That said, they do have defensive needs as well, so it'll be tough manuvering. I would try to shore up that offense as much as possible, though. DL value in that 4th/5th range might be alright for depth purposes.

DragonFireKai
04-12-2008, 10:25 PM
They got a top RB and a good starting QB for a player now in jail. It also allowed them the freedom to make the Eli trade. They became a play-off regular from doormats. Ask the Cons if they would make that trade now.

I don't think that San Diego would care if they swapped Drew Brees and Mike Vick now. Vicks in Jail, and Drew Brees hasn't been a Charger for three years. And the 2001 trade didn't have any real bearing on the 2004 trade.

Anyways, they looked at it this way. By keeping the first overall pick and selecting Vick, they would already have a QB, and wouldn't need to select Brees in the Second round. They Assumed that the Falcons knew not to rely on Jamal Anderson due to injuries, and picked Tomlinson with the fifth pick. That brought up San Diego with the first pick in the second round, picking the first running back that was taken in the first round would be a stretch, so they take another need, WR. In this case, Chad Johnson, who would have been selected with the fifth pick. Then Atlanta, with the fourth pick in the second round would have most likely attempted to fill the hole at QB, by selecting Drew Brees. Moving onto the next years draft, Atlanta needs to fill holes at WR, so they take Ashliy Lelie and Reche Caldwell. The Chargers still have the same rationale for taking Jammer and Fonoti.

FO then pro rates the DPAR of the players based on snaps played, and comes out that Atlanta would have been significantly better over the next five years, and San Diego would have been slightly better.

DragonFireKai
04-12-2008, 10:29 PM
Completely disagree with this blown no.1 pick crap. The problem is that the 9ers dont know how good Alex could be 4 yrs in. They've botched the OC position soooo much Alex is onto his 4th Co Ordinator in 4 years. The kids never had a chance. The next 2 years will be the test.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, if a QB doesn't produce an average season within two years of starting, they're pretty much garunteed to never become a servicable starter.

toonsterwu
04-12-2008, 10:32 PM
Thing is, Alex Smith has produced an average season. I'm not saying Alex Smith will end up being a serviceable starter or not, but I think there were definitely extenuating circumstances last year that should be taken into judgment. Now, if he struggles this year, then I'd be really worried.

DragonFireKai
04-12-2008, 10:39 PM
Thing is, Alex Smith has produced an average season. I'm not saying Alex Smith will end up being a serviceable starter or not, but I think there were definitely extenuating circumstances last year that should be taken into judgment. Now, if he struggles this year, then I'd be really worried.

He's never thrown more TDs than INTs. Never had a passer rating in the top 20. Never had an Adjusted yards per attempt over 6.0. He's never had an average season.

Vernon Davis
04-12-2008, 10:52 PM
The niners have done a horrible job bringing Smith a long. In a situation that screams for the need of stability the Niners have had the offensive system in constant flux.

When Smith came out, Meyer said that Smith would struggle until he spends years in the system and masters every thing to the detail. It is pretty hard to do this when the offensive system has changed four out of four years.

Smith hasn't been put into a good situation. Ask Matt Hasselbeck if he would like to be learning a new offense every year. Its hard for a veteran. Nearly impossible for a rookie.

The offensive line regressed last year. The WRs regressed last year.

My biggest fear as an avid 49er fan would be that Martz does a good job and then gets hired the VERY next year to be a HC.

Iamcanadian
04-13-2008, 11:05 PM
2005:
1 1 Alex Smith QB Utah
2 33 David Baas G Michigan
3 65 Frank Gore RB Miami (Fla.)
3 94 Adam Snyder T Oregon
5 137 Ronald Fields DT Mississippi State
5 174 Rasheed Marshall WR West Virginia
6 205 Derrick Johnson CB Washington
7 215 Daven Holly DB Cincinnati
7 223 Marcus Maxwell WR Oregon
7 248 Patrick Estes T Virginia
7 249 Billy Bajema TE Oklahoma State

6 out of 11 players are still on the team.

2006:
1 6 Vernon Davis TE Maryland
1 22 Manny Lawson OLB North Carolina State
3 84 Brandon Williams WR Wisconsin
4 100 Michael Robinson RB Penn State
5 140 Parys Haralson DE Tennessee
6 175 Delanie Walker TE Central Missouri State
6 192 Marcus Hudson DB North Carolina State
6 197 Melvin Oliver DE Louisiana State
7 254 Vickiel Vaughn DB Arkansas

7 out of 9 still on the roster.

2007:
1 11 Patrick Willis ILB Mississippi
1 28 Joe Staley OT Central Michigan
3 76 Jason Hill WR Washington State
3 97 Ray McDonald DE Florida
4 104 Jay Moore LB Nebraska
4 126 Dashon Goldson SAF Washington
4 135 Joe Cohen DT Florida
5 147 Tarell Brown CB Texas
6 186 Thomas Clayton RB Kansas State

9 out of 9 players still on the roster.

I'd say that's pretty good drafting, since 22 out of 29 (75.86%) players are still on the team.

Instead of looking at the draft picks, look at San Fran's record with those draft picks. Anybody can start for a losing team, that doesn't make them NFL legit starters. Staley didn't come close to playing as well as Thomas or Brown and isn't close to the OL prospects in this year's draft, and Nolan should have known that. He also should have known whether his team was ready for a breakout season before he made the trade. He has failed as a HC, he failed to properly assess his team before making a highly risky trade and if Smith turns out to be a flop, then San Fran is looking at another 3 or 4 years before they will be a competitive team because it takes around 3 season before any new QB he drafts will be truly effective. He rolled the dice in the trade and came up looking rather stupid.

Iamcanadian
04-13-2008, 11:11 PM
He's never thrown more TDs than INTs. Never had a passer rating in the top 20. Never had an Adjusted yards per attempt over 6.0. He's never had an average season.

I have to agree with Toonsterwu, There were extenuating circumstances last year which severely limited Smith ability to compete. He still has the potential to be a very decent NFL QB, but Toonsterwu is correct, with QB guru Martz as his OC and in good health, Smith should if he truly has the talent, have a brealout year, and if he doesn't then it is fair to label him a flop.

toonsterwu
04-13-2008, 11:18 PM
I have a hard time faulting Nolan on the moves he made. I can fault Nolan for his poor management of the team, as you don't let issues with your QB get that heated. Furthermore, I can fault him for turning it over to Hostler. Sure, he was stuck in a bad position with the late move, but he should've given Hostler more help at the very least. I understood the rationale behind giving Hostler the job (maintain continuity) but he didn't have the playcalling experience.

But everyone's judging on the benefit of hindsight now. It's hard to criticize his moves last offseason. Alex Smith showed good progress in his 2nd year. Frank Gore was coming off a good year. Let's look at their offensive moves. They went after Staley, although rumors suggest that they really wanted Bowe, but he went too high. Staley made sense. I think he would've been the 5th OT this year, still a likely first rounder. They needed OT help then, and Staley had a solid rookie year while playing out of position. They went after Jackson. Sure, that one blew up in their face, but on the surface, how can you not disagree with that move at the time? 4th rounder for, on paper, a solid WR so that your QB can have better targets? Defensively, they went aggressively after Clements and landed him. A CB upgrade was nice. Michael Lewis - Bleh, that one I didn't like.

I don't remember the rest of their moves at the time, but we have the benefit of hindsight to judge history, and it's never accurate to judge within said prism. I don't find huge fault with his personnel moves last offseason. I think they were fine for the most part, as the team looked like it was on the upswing. Fault him on the Hostler move. Hard to fault him on injuries, but eh, perhaps fault him there as well. The only personnel move I would fault him on is adding Tully Banta-Cain as your pass rush upgrade when Manny Lawson was raw, and there was Haralson, but I don't remember if anything else was all that realistic off the top.

Now, in terms of his drafting, I don't like the whole "who's left on the roster argument". I will say, overall, I think they've done a good job getting value and talent in the draft, but they haven't really drafted to protect their young QB (no top WR pick).

Iamcanadian
04-13-2008, 11:31 PM
I have a hard time faulting Nolan on the moves he made. I can fault Nolan for his poor management of the team, as you don't let issues with your QB get that heated. Furthermore, I can fault him for turning it over to Hostler. Sure, he was stuck in a bad position with the late move, but he should've given Hostler more help at the very least. I understood the rationale behind giving Hostler the job (maintain continuity) but he didn't have the playcalling experience.

But everyone's judging on the benefit of hindsight now. It's hard to criticize his moves last offseason. Alex Smith showed good progress in his 2nd year. Frank Gore was coming off a good year. Let's look at their offensive moves. They went after Staley, although rumors suggest that they really wanted Bowe, but he went too high. Staley made sense. I think he would've been the 5th OT this year, still a likely first rounder. They needed OT help then, and Staley had a solid rookie year while playing out of position. They went after Jackson. Sure, that one blew up in their face, but on the surface, how can you not disagree with that move at the time? 4th rounder for, on paper, a solid WR so that your QB can have better targets? Defensively, they went aggressively after Clements and landed him. A CB upgrade was nice. Michael Lewis - Bleh, that one I didn't like.

I don't remember the rest of their moves at the time, but we have the benefit of hindsight to judge history, and it's never accurate to judge within said prism. I don't find huge fault with his personnel moves last offseason. I think they were fine for the most part, as the team looked like it was on the upswing. Fault him on the Hostler move. Hard to fault him on injuries, but eh, perhaps fault him there as well. The only personnel move I would fault him on is adding Tully Banta-Cain as your pass rush upgrade when Manny Lawson was raw, and there was Haralson, but I don't remember if anything else was all that realistic off the top.

Now, in terms of his drafting, I don't like the whole "who's left on the roster argument". I will say, overall, I think they've done a good job getting value and talent in the draft, but they haven't really drafted to protect their young QB (no top WR pick).

I think you are missing the forrest for the trees. HC's are responsible and accountable for 1 thing, 'winning', there they are at fault no matter how one tries to explain it away. If Nolan does what he did and the team wins, then he is a genius, otherwise he's a bum, and right now the bum side of the ledger is carrying a lot more weight. It's not just a make or break season for Smith, it's a make or break season for Nolan and sadly for San Fran.

bigbluedefense
04-14-2008, 08:36 AM
im just grateful the Giants didn't get him. the whole month mocks had him coming to us, and i remember when we were on the clock i was saying "please, anyone but Joe Staley"

when Ross's name was called i was so relieved.

supposedly he's playing better than i thought, but to be honest, from the 3 games ive seen of him, i wasn't that impressed at all.

49ersfan_87
04-16-2008, 03:22 PM
im just grateful the Giants didn't get him. the whole month mocks had him coming to us, and i remember when we were on the clock i was saying "please, anyone but Joe Staley"

when Ross's name was called i was so relieved.

supposedly he's playing better than i thought, but to be honest, from the 3 games ive seen of him, i wasn't that impressed at all.

Which 3 games were those? I'm assuming two of them you saw were the Giants and Cardinals (Week 1) game. Those 2, along with the Browns games, were the worst games of his career. Strahan/Berry/McGinest really made Staley look bad, but he held his own for the most part during the rest of the season.

ninerfan
04-16-2008, 04:31 PM
I'll admit that Staley got schooled by Strahan and the Giants but thats the only game I feel he let us down. To get a solid and potentially spectacular LT for late Rd 1 $ is a huge win. No probs with the trade here.