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bigbluedefense
04-15-2008, 03:03 PM
I was just thinking earlier about SB predictions, and I noticed that early predictions for the following SB almost always favor the Conference Championship teams. This year that would include the Giants, Packers, Patriots and Chargers.

A lot of us expect those teams (in particular the ones that lost the championship game) to "take the next step" and make it to the SB the following year. And rightfully so, afterall if all things are equal and they improve in the draft, why not right?

So I went back and looked at the Championship game teams, and what they did the following year. The results may surprise you.

2007: Bears/Saints and Colts/Pats
result: 2 teams made the playoffs the following year: Colts and Pats

2006: Steelers/Broncos and Seattle/Carolina
result: Only the Seahawks made the playoffs the following year

2005: Eagles/Falcons and NE/Pittsburgh
result: the Pats and Steelers made it to the playoffs the following year

If the past 3 years are any indication of the future, 2 teams will make the playoffs, and 2 wont.

So of those 4 teams, assuming that this stat holds true, which 2 teams do you see from this past Conference Championships making the playoffs? Why? Which won't and why?

DragonFireKai
04-15-2008, 03:06 PM
I was just thinking earlier about SB predictions, and I noticed that early predictions for the following SB almost always favor the Conference Championship teams. This year that would include the Giants, Packers, Patriots and Chargers.

A lot of us expect those teams (in particular the ones that lost the championship game) to "take the next step" and make it to the SB the following year. And rightfully so, afterall if all things are equal and they improve in the draft, why not right?

So I went back and looked at the Championship game teams, and what they did the following year. The results may surprise you.

2007: Bears/Saints and Colts/Pats
result: 2 teams made the playoffs the following year: Colts and Pats

2006: Steelers/Broncos and Seattle/Carolina
result: Only the Seahawks made the playoffs the following year

2005: Eagles/Falcons and NE/Pittsburgh
result: the Pats and Steelers made it to the playoffs the following year

If the past 3 years are any indication of the future, 2 teams will make the playoffs, and 2 wont.

So of those 4 teams, assuming that this stat holds true, which 2 teams do you see from this past Conference Championships making the playoffs? Why? Which won't and why?

I think the Pats, Chargers, and Packers will all make the playoffs.

bigbluedefense
04-15-2008, 03:09 PM
I think the Pats, Chargers, and Packers will all make the playoffs.

3 of the 4 teams have question marks. The Packers have a new qb in what seems to be a division thats developing into a competitive one, the Giants play the NFC East and have to prove they werent a fluke, the Chargers qb is coming into the season recovering from an ACL injury. Even the Pats have issues in the secondary, although I think they have the least worries of the 4 teams.

Gay Ork Wang
04-15-2008, 03:10 PM
Giants and Chargers would be my choice, the AFC West is really weak and well SB Champs tend to make the playoffs (well the steelers didnt). I just hope the SB loser curse strikes again...

Crazy_Chris
04-15-2008, 03:15 PM
I would have to say patriots(obviously) and the Chargers(good team pretty weak divison). I think the Giants will get in too but they have a rougher divison so they are less likely to make it than the Patriots or the Chargers. Green Bay has a big ? at QB so that seemingly would make them most likely of those 4 teams not to make it.

San Diego Chicken
04-15-2008, 03:19 PM
If forced to chose I think both NFC teams are more likely to miss the playoffs if for no other reason that the Chargers and Patriots will be favored big time to win their divisions. I still think the Giants will make the playoffs though. The Packers I'm not so sure about.

Yatta!
04-15-2008, 03:20 PM
Interesting stat, but a bit worrying for me. I can't see the Chargers or Pats missing the playoffs. That would mean that the Packers would miss out and that could happen if Rodgers doesn't perform and the Giants as well, and their division is one of the toughest in football. Still it could be the year that the stat gets broken.

CC.SD
04-15-2008, 03:26 PM
The Pats and Chargers divisions just don't have much going on, so for that reason if no other I don't believe they'lll miss.

619
04-15-2008, 03:27 PM
It's certainly atleast a possibility with the Packers of course but even the Giants scare me as a team that could potentially falter in such a deep division.

bigbluedefense
04-15-2008, 03:38 PM
I can see the Giants or Packers or both not making it. It wouldnt shock me. Im not as sure about the Chargers as you guys are though. That ACL is risky business, Tomlinson is getting near that age, Norv Turner is still the HC, and well...the rest of the West can't be THAT bad can it?

The only team that i have as a lock right now is the Patriots.

San Diego Chicken
04-15-2008, 03:58 PM
I can see the Giants or Packers or both not making it. It wouldnt shock me. Im not as sure about the Chargers as you guys are though. That ACL is risky business, Tomlinson is getting near that age, Norv Turner is still the HC, and well...the rest of the West can't be THAT bad can it?

The only team that i have as a lock right now is the Patriots.

Who in the West is going to step it up though? Denver? Both of their lines have issues. KC needs a solution at QB and LT. The Raiders are probably still two more drafts away and they're complicating things by giving away huge contracts.

The Chargers don't have personnel issues, they just have health issues and from everything I've read Rivers will be fine by training camp.

Burns336
04-15-2008, 04:00 PM
I think the Giants are a lock.

Reese has proven to be great in the draft, they only lost a few guys and might possibly lose Strahan.

The biggest thing for them is that Eli must have all the confidence in the world. New York loves him now, his teammates have his back. He should be very solid and I would expect a Pro Bowl year.

Giants, Pats, Chargers should all get in. I would say Greenbay would be most likely to fall off. Aaron Rodgers could suck.

BeerBaron
04-15-2008, 04:03 PM
another thing to look at when finding teams to replace those who don't make it back from the championship games is to look at the teams picking top 5 in the draft.

seems like each year one of them turns it around and makes it. the bucs last year picked #4 overall and made it. the saints before that at #2 overall and before them, the jets when they took d'brickashaw.

from this year....i would say a healthy rams team would have the best shot honestly

Bengalsrocket
04-15-2008, 04:11 PM
Patriots are the only division lock imo. Colts are a play off lock, but not even a division lock.

AFC West is almost a lock with the chargers, but you never know what the raiders are going to do now. Raiders have possibly the best CB tandem in the league, playing against 3 teams with young QB's (Croyle, Cutler, Rivers). Fargas showed last season he can run a little bit, and as much as I hate that J. Russel was the number 1 overall pick, I have no idea how well he'll do.

NFC has no locks in my opinion. Giants certainly are not a lock with how tough the NFC East is - Eagles / Cowboys / Redskins can all be great teams.

TheGreatEscape
04-15-2008, 05:56 PM
Giants and Chargers make it. The pack's O takes a step backwards under Rodgers and the Pats get hit by injuries while the bills prey on an easy schedule. We're not even at the draft yet so wtf not!

TheGreatEscape
04-15-2008, 05:59 PM
Although Norv Turner makes me think the Chargers start really slow or struggle once they hit the wall.

neko4
04-15-2008, 07:04 PM
Green Bay's deciding factor will be Aaron Rodgers
So long as he plays above average Green Bay should be in the playoffs

Bengalsrocket
04-15-2008, 07:17 PM
Green Bay's deciding factor will be Aaron Rodgers
So long as he plays above average Green Bay should be in the playoffs

GB could probably squeeze by even if he played just below average =P

Thunder&Lightning
04-15-2008, 07:42 PM
I would have to say patriots(obviously) and the Chargers(good team pretty weak divison). I think the Giants will get in too but they have a rougher divison so they are less likely to make it than the Patriots or the Chargers. Green Bay has a big ? at QB so that seemingly would make them most likely of those 4 teams not to make it.

ya i couldnt agree more

KCJ58
04-15-2008, 07:57 PM
I only see the 2 AFC teams back 2 the playoffs

regoob2
04-15-2008, 07:59 PM
Chargers and pats both have cake schedules. They're my picks.

BaLLiN
04-15-2008, 08:47 PM
if the chargers and pats didnt have easy schedules, id say that no conference team would likely make it.

I think the giants scrape in another wild card playoff spot, pats will pretty much win their division, broncos may surprise the chargers but ultimately i think the chargers win their division, green bay finishes 3rd in their division.

FizzyFalcons
04-15-2008, 11:27 PM
If Brett doesnt come back, the Vikes will probably win the North. And I dont really see the Pack making the wild card. The Chargers seem like they'll make it, but you never know. I'm thinkin the Giants dont make the playoffs this year. They barely did last year and the Cowboys are gonna get younger and more athletic with the draft and maybe Pacman, plus the Eagles, **** even the Redskins.

Yeah, No Packers and Giants this year.

The Great Jonathan Vilma
04-15-2008, 11:35 PM
Pats and Chargers for me.

Packers new QB issues make it mcuh tougher, plus i'm still not sold on the Giants. I know that doesn't make sense since they won the SB and beat an undefeated team, but thats just me.....

DeathbyStat
04-16-2008, 08:01 AM
If i need to go with two to make the playoffs I'm going Chargers and Pats.

If not Chargers and Pats

I'll go Pats and Giants I don't feel the Pack will make the playoffs

On a side note I think Cleveland will be the trendy pick this year to at least make to the conference champioship.

tjpackers
04-16-2008, 11:55 AM
colts( the pats have lost lots of players including samuels) and the pack ( even with brett gone they are good and eli isn't consistint with his play. ill admitt he did good in last year but i don't c it happening again

Turtlepower
04-16-2008, 11:58 AM
I'm going to say the Giants and the Chargers. The Chargers play in the worst division in football (next season) and the Giants are just awesome. The Pats will not make the playoffs because the Jets and Bills will both be teams over .500 next year and they might lose another couple games here of there. I'm just hoping for a meltdown from them.

On a side note, one team that I believe will make the playoffs and possibly win its division with 10 games is the Rams.

Geo
04-16-2008, 12:54 PM
Colts are going to use 2007 to fuel them this year like they used 2005 to fuel them for 2006. Mark my words.

Both the Chargers and Patriots have great front sevens, but you can pass on them. Which the Colts have done and will do.

Turtlepower
04-16-2008, 12:57 PM
Really off-topic here, but with all of this talk about the playoffs, one team that I am thinking might be overrated is the Jags or mroe specifcally David Garrard. Is it really a coincidence that Garrard has a great season when a new OC comes into play?

Also, Dirk Koetter made Andrew Walter seem like an NFL starting QB. Keep that in mind.

Geo
04-16-2008, 01:00 PM
I like Garrard, his big mistake in 2006 was turnovers (as Jags fans calling him Captain Turnover can attest), but he cut that out in 2007. He's not sabotaging the franchise like Leftwich did, Garrard can play. They don't have a big playmaker who can receive, but they have a lot of talented guys and just need an accurate guy to deliver the ball around to them.

Damix
04-16-2008, 05:13 PM
The more interesting stat is in the last 4 years 8 different teams have been in the NFC championship game.

SuperMcGee
04-16-2008, 05:21 PM
I can't see any of these AFC East teams overtaking the Patriots in the division. I'd love to see it happen, but none of them are that close to closing the gap.

umphrey
04-16-2008, 05:34 PM
I think the Patriots are going to be similar to the 04 Colts when Manning threw for 49 TDs but they had almost no defense whatsoever.

Their secondary has to give, last year it started to. Run defense will still be ok.

Damix
04-16-2008, 05:35 PM
I can't see any of these AFC East teams overtaking the Patriots in the division. I'd love to see it happen, but none of them are that close to closing the gap.

^ And I'm pretty sure the Patriots have been there twice in the last 4 years


NFC, sorry.

skinzzfan25
04-16-2008, 05:38 PM
I've got a better stat.

Every year the Giants win a Superbowl, the skins win the year after (XXV, XXI).

ChezPower4
04-16-2008, 10:12 PM
I think the Giants are a lock.

Reese has proven to be great in the draft, they only lost a few guys and might possibly lose Strahan.

The biggest thing for them is that Eli must have all the confidence in the world. New York loves him now, his teammates have his back. He should be very solid and I would expect a Pro Bowl year.

Giants, Pats, Chargers should all get in. I would say Greenbay would be most likely to fall off. Aaron Rodgers could suck.

Nothing is a lock in the NFL and the Giants were the wildcard last season so they didn't exactly play that great. To me Eli still has to prove that he can be a good QB for a long period of time. Playing well for 5 or 6 games last year does not mean he'll make the pro bowl next year.

Just because Resse had a great draft last year doesn't mean he'll hit all his picks this year your giving the guy way to much credit...but i guess things like that happen when you win a Super Bowl