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View Full Version : JBond's Weekly Fantasy Football Symposium: Week 1 ADP


Shane P. Hallam
05-01-2008, 11:58 PM
Every week until September I'll be bringing you a weekly article I write about fantasy football. The topics will range from beginner to expert in terms of quality. I'll do articles about things to help you draft, trade, show you mock drafts, rankings, as well as some things to look for during drafts and throughout the year:


Week 1: ADP

A few of you may know LONG before I was into the draft, fantasy football was my love. This will actually be my 14th year playing in a fantasy football league and I used to be even more hardcore into FF than anything else. In fact, my forum of choice was www.fanball.com and that is where I met Creek, who introduced me to NFLDC. I now run a $50 keeper league, an ultra dynasty league, and I join many every year. I consider myself VERY knowledgeable in fantasy football.

All of us know the NFL draft here and know that teams have to balance value with need. Likewise, we know that teams that have better value on draft day generally come out with the better draft as a whole. A fantasy draft is no different. You want to know the value of the players going in and where they are likely to go in your draft. You figure this out by something called ADP: Average Draft Position.


The Average Draft position should be your bible going into any fantasy draft. There are numerous sites to get various ADP charts, but my favorite free one is: http://www.AntSports.com/adp.aspx. Though not much to see yet, when we get into draft time, it will show you the average round and pick # for every pick. You can also set some options to get close to your scoring system and line-up.

Take a look at this example of an ADP chart from last year: http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2007/adp

You can basically take a look at where your picks will stack up against the ADP, then when the time comes you can see who you want and who may fall to you with your next pick. Continue using this throughout the draft. If you want RBs early, but the value isn't good, don't hesitate to take another position! If you follow the ADP chart, you should come out with a pretty spanking team that will give you plenty of trade bait if there are guys YOU don't like.

ADP may seem like a simple procedure, but many people will:

1. Reach for players on their favorite teams

2. Reach for rookies or younger players who may not produce right away.

3. Reach for guys who had big seasons last year/big name recognition who may not perform.


Keep ADP in your back-pocket, don't be that guy, and make trades later if there are guys you want.


Finally, if you are using Yahoo or a similar Live draft, get into the lobby early and see where Yahoo ranks guys. If there are players who are too low on their rankings but higher on your ADP, circle them or mark them down to remember. Maybe you can get them a little lower than their ADP depending on their draft position. Keep an eye out for any steals, and don't be afraid to take some players for value over need!



As always, feel free to reply with questions, comments, etc. I'll try to answer anything. Also, if you'd like to submit any questions for a short FAQ after next week's article, feel free to e-mail them to hallam.14@osu.edu!

Caddy
05-02-2008, 12:06 AM
I consider myself VERY knowledgeable in fantasy football.



And you are so modest too :) .

Otherwise it was a good read. I'm a pretty big FF guy too and have been competing in leagues for a while. Not as long as you, but still long enough that I consider myself relatively knowledgeable. If you start an NFLDC league, I'm in for shizzle.

devinhester=R.O.Y 2006
05-02-2008, 12:20 AM
Very nice writeup JBond. I look forward to reading this in the future.

WMD
05-02-2008, 01:01 AM
Fantasy Football is my third love; behind the Draft and Walter Herrmann.

LonghornsLegend
05-02-2008, 02:41 AM
Great write up, and you are correct sir about reaching for favorite players, because everyone in my leagues know I will KILL if I don't get Marion Barber on my team, last year I took him in rd 2 which was considered a reach, now that he is the sure-fire goal line back I would have to have a top 2-3 pick to pass him up now.


I'll be looking forward to these though, fantasy football is my crack addiction :(

scottyboy
05-02-2008, 05:00 PM
so I assume you'd criticize me for taking Brian Leonard round one last year?

neko4
05-02-2008, 05:04 PM
This year im playing for money so i expect to win big, your advice should help Jbond

UKfan
05-02-2008, 05:37 PM
Nice read, I don't play overly seriously, but it's always nice to get some help, I started 0-6 last year haha.

Gay Ork Wang
05-03-2008, 04:19 AM
Can u actually play a keeper league without paying?

Caddy
05-03-2008, 05:57 AM
Can u actually play a keeper league without paying?

You can do a free keeper league with ESPN. It is a ton of fun with active participants.

Gay Ork Wang
05-03-2008, 06:27 AM
i wanna do one :(

Caddy
05-03-2008, 08:26 AM
i wanna do one :(

Make one then! I'll join.

UKfan
05-03-2008, 08:39 AM
Same here.

neko4
05-07-2008, 04:47 AM
You can do a free keeper league with ESPN. It is a ton of fun with active participants.
We should get people on NFLDC to do one

619
05-07-2008, 07:31 AM
Great write up, and you are correct sir about reaching for favorite players, because everyone in my leagues know I will KILL if I don't get Marion Barber on my team, last year I took him in rd 2 which was considered a reach, now that he is the sure-fire goal line back I would have to have a top 2-3 pick to pass him up now.


I'll be looking forward to these though, fantasy football is my crack addiction :(

I always reach for favorite players! Reggie Bush round one last year lol.

Jughead10
05-07-2008, 08:05 AM
I'm not crazy about ADP. Mainly because too many people use it. Thus it almost becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. "Experts" whether it be at Yahoo, roto, wherever come out with the rankings when its around the time these drafts occur. Too many people use these rankings as gospel and thus these ADP charts look very similar. No one in their right mind can convince me of taking McFadden late round 1 or early round 2 in any scoring system this year. Yet that is where he will be taken in many drafts. Where as last year Lynch was ranked ahead of Peterson. We see how that worked. Peterson will be taking 1 or 2 this year in almost all drafts.

However it also can be useful in other ways to plan against other people drafting using it. If you think a guy is going to outperform where he is ranked you know roughly when you have to take him to stay ahead of everyone else if you really want him.

Shane P. Hallam
05-07-2008, 08:46 AM
I'm not crazy about ADP. Mainly because too many people use it. Thus it almost becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. "Experts" whether it be at Yahoo, roto, wherever come out with the rankings when its around the time these drafts occur. Too many people use these rankings as gospel and thus these ADP charts look very similar. No one in their right mind can convince me of taking McFadden late round 1 or early round 2 in any scoring system this year. Yet that is where he will be taken in many drafts. Where as last year Lynch was ranked ahead of Peterson. We see how that worked. Peterson will be taking 1 or 2 this year in almost all drafts.

However it also can be useful in other ways to plan against other people drafting using it. If you think a guy is going to outperform where he is ranked you know roughly when you have to take him to stay ahead of everyone else if you really want him.



Here is the thing, Rankings are MUCH different than ADP. You take a look at expert rankings, and they will differ from ADP.

I'm not saying not take a guy you think will overperform, but don't reach for him.


Think of it like this:

2006 NFL Draft. If I tell the Texans "Hey, Marques Colston will be a star and will likely go after your final pick of the draft." Do they take him in the first round? Or do they take him in the 6th or 7th? Obviously in the 6th or 7th, or one pick before the Saints.

This is the same with ADP. If you love Marion Barber like Longhorns, and is slated for a late 2nd rounder, you don't take him at #8 overall, you take him in the 2nd round.

ADP is a tool. It is a bible that you need to follow so you don't have major reaches. Your quote at the end of your post is EXACTLY why to use ADP. You don't just pick a guy though he is ahead in ADP, but you have a range of who you SHOULD take. You know when you can wait on a QB or something if the top tier is gone and you have a round or two until the next guy should come off the board.

Like I said, these will range from beginner to advanced, so we will see!

Jughead10
05-07-2008, 08:58 AM
I guess I just look at Fantasy different than most. I think of these rankings as something people use who don't follow the actual sport as closely as I or others do. Thus you just use it to stay ahead of them like you said. But I consistently "reach" for Tom Brady every year according to guys in the league I run with my friends. Yet it is always good move for me. Keeper leagues can also throw these rankings off. Again I "reached" for Calvin Johnson last year. Didn't turn out as well as I hope in '07, but it could pay off big time in '08, '09, and further down the road. But I'm also in a different situation as I know that the keepr league I run won't be ending anytime soon. Should be something that goes on for the next 10+ years.

Gay Ork Wang
05-07-2008, 09:03 AM
i think there are different ADP for leagues say e.g. Keeper Leagues and PPR Formats

Shane P. Hallam
05-07-2008, 09:18 AM
i think there are different ADP for leagues say e.g. Keeper Leagues and PPR Formats

Yeah, keeper and dynasty fetch different stuff man.

As for reaching for Brady, last year was probably the only year it really worked out.

Jughead10
05-07-2008, 09:38 AM
Yeah, keeper and dynasty fetch different stuff man.

As for reaching for Brady, last year was probably the only year it really worked out.

Well last year it worked out to an extreme proportion. With the scoring system in my league QBs always outperform RBs in general. Making the elite QBs very worthy of a pick anywhere in the mid to late first, all the way through the second round.

But at the same time, Brady probably won't live up to where he will be ranked this year on these things.

Hines
05-07-2008, 10:07 AM
If you guys do a keeper league, I will be happy to join. I love playing with IDP players because those make it fun IMO. My philosophy is going BPA in the first few rounds regardless of position, which leads me to stud running backs but not really good quarterbacks. I guess I should go quarterbacks early so I can grab a stud one.

neko4
05-07-2008, 04:18 PM
Yeah, keeper and dynasty fetch different stuff man.

As for reaching for Brady, last year was probably the only year it really worked out.

I reached for Favre and Jennings in one league, that worked out well :)
Too bad i didnt pick Ryan Grant in the 3rd


If you guys do a keeper league, I will be happy to join. I love playing with IDP players because those make it fun IMO. My philosophy is going BPA in the first few rounds regardless of position, which leads me to stud running backs but not really good quarterbacks. I guess I should go quarterbacks early so I can grab a stud one.

I might start one in june

Shane P. Hallam
05-07-2008, 04:33 PM
Well last year it worked out to an extreme proportion. With the scoring system in my league QBs always outperform RBs in general. Making the elite QBs very worthy of a pick anywhere in the mid to late first, all the way through the second round.

But at the same time, Brady probably won't live up to where he will be ranked this year on these things.

Ah, you are hitting on my next article ;)

Gay Ork Wang
05-07-2008, 04:38 PM
when is the next one coming out?

Shane P. Hallam
05-07-2008, 04:49 PM
Every week, Fridays

farfromforgotten
05-07-2008, 06:02 PM
I've done FF for 13 years now. I havent found many people that are as dedicated to it as myself. When the season ends I make my player rankings for the next year right away and update it through the off season and draft. I'm down for any and all FF leagues if you guys want to do one, I'm in.

JBond, do you participate in any live drafts in the Columbus area? I always did live drafts with a bunch of buddies when I lived in WV, but when I moved away it fell apart and we dont have enough for a league anymore. We used to get together at someones house on a saturday or sunday and spend all day drafting, eating and doing some drinking. I always enjoyed that. I have only done online drafts the past few years. It always cracks me up when users online complain about someone taking the whole two minutes to select a player. We literally took all day and would study over things every round and plan ahead. I loved it.

Shane P. Hallam
05-09-2008, 08:49 PM
I've done FF for 13 years now. I havent found many people that are as dedicated to it as myself. When the season ends I make my player rankings for the next year right away and update it through the off season and draft. I'm down for any and all FF leagues if you guys want to do one, I'm in.

JBond, do you participate in any live drafts in the Columbus area? I always did live drafts with a bunch of buddies when I lived in WV, but when I moved away it fell apart and we dont have enough for a league anymore. We used to get together at someones house on a saturday or sunday and spend all day drafting, eating and doing some drinking. I always enjoyed that. I have only done online drafts the past few years. It always cracks me up when users online complain about someone taking the whole two minutes to select a player. We literally took all day and would study over things every round and plan ahead. I loved it.

Don't know enough people for Live drafts, but it sounds amazing :) If I did do a live thing, I'd actually rather start an auction league.

SuperMcGee
05-09-2008, 09:22 PM
Don't know enough people for Live drafts, but it sounds amazing :) If I did do a live thing, I'd actually rather start an auction league.

Live auction drafts are really fun, that's what my keeper league used to do. But geographical differences have now limited it to a chat room. I'd definitely recommend it, though. Auction keeper is pretty fun with a good group of managers.
Standard live drafts are also fun, doing it at a place like Wild Wings or someone's house, always a good time.

LonghornsLegend
05-09-2008, 09:40 PM
We should get people on NFLDC to do one

I've been waiting for someone from NFLDC to start up a keeper league, I just want to make sure I'm down when it happens.

Hines
05-09-2008, 09:52 PM
I've been waiting for someone from NFLDC to start up a keeper league, I just want to make sure I'm down when it happens.

Renji is making one.