PDA

View Full Version : JBond's Fantasy Football Symposium: Week 2 The Goal Is Not To Score The Most Points!


Shane P. Hallam
05-09-2008, 08:49 PM
See Week 1 here: http://nfldraftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=22234

Every week until September I'll be bringing you a weekly article I write about fantasy football. The topics will range from beginner to expert in terms of quality. I'll do articles about things to help you draft, trade, show you mock drafts, rankings, as well as some things to look for during drafts and throughout the year:

Week 2: The Goal Of FF Is Not To Score The Most Points


I know it is an odd title, but it is true. The goal of Fantasy Football is NOT to score the most points, it is to score more than your opponent. This is what you have to remember going into a draft. How does this work? We always here people saying “Go RB in the first, pick Rbs early, etc.” Why is that? They don’t score the most points, Qbs generally do that. The reason is, a top RB will drastically outperform the 30th best RB, While the Top QB won’t drastically outperform the 12th best QB.

Let’s look at a standard Yahoo League and the breakdown of final results:

RB standings:

1. LaDanian Tomlinson - 293
2. Brian Westbrook – 269
3. Adrian Peterson - 222
4. Joseph Addai – 222
5. Clinton Portis – 210
6. Jamal Lewis - 207
7. Marion Barber – 187
8. Edgerrin James – 172
9. Willis McGahee – 174
10. Frank Gore - 170
11. Earnest Graham – 167
12. Marshawn Lynch - 167
13. Maurice Jones-Drew - 161
14. Steven Jackson – 154
15. Willie Parker – 141
16. Ryan Grant - 146
17. Fred Taylor – 146
18. LenDale White – 145
19. Kenny Watson - 142
20. Brandon Jacobs - 139
21. Chester Taylor – 134
22. Thomas Jones – 132
23. Justin Fargas - 129
24. Reggie Bush - 125
25. Laurence Maroney – 125
26. Kevin Jones - 113
27. DeAngelo Williams – 108
28. DeShaun Foster – 105
29. Warrick Dunn - 105
30. Maurice Morris - 101
31. Shaun Alexander – 99
32. Larry Johnson - 92
33. Derrick Ward – 92
34. Travis Henry – 91
35. LaMont Jordan - 90
36. Selvin Young – 86
37. Jerious Norwood - 85
38. Rudi Johnson - 74
39. Kolby Smith - 63
40. Cedric Benson - 61


QB standings:

1. Tom Brady - 386
2. Tony Romo - 302
3. Peyton Manning - 282
4. Derek Anderson – 262
5. Drew Brees – 262
6. Ben Roethlibberger - 259
7. Brett Favre – 252
8. Matt Hasselbeck – 243
9. Carson Palmer - 241
10. Kurt Warner – 216
11. Jay Cutler – 212
12. Donovan McNabb – 204
13. Jon Kitna - 195
14. Eli Manning - 194
15. Phillip Rivers – 183
16. David Garrard - 178
17. Vince Young - 159
18. Jeff Garcia – 149
19. Marc Bulger - 115


Using ADP (http://nfldraftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=22234):

You can get the 12th best RB in the early second (1st round has generally been 10/11 Rbs, 1/2 QB) or the 3rd best QB. Who do you take?

Looking at the point total, you can get Peyton Manning with 282 points or Marshawn Lynch at 167. Seems like you should take Manning, right? The answer is no.

Why? Because let’s fast forward to the 8th round. Now, in the 8th, at the beginning of the 8th, you can get the 10th best QB or the 34th best RB. So, it is either Kurt Warner with 216 or Travis Henry with 91.

Look at it this way.

You can end up with Marshawn Lynch (167) and Kurt Warner (216) = 383

Your opponent can end up with Peyton Manning (282) and Travis Henry (91)= 371

You are getting a 12 points bump by waiting on a QB, and will outscore your opponent at those positions when you play him. Take into effect a whole draft, and that is a 5-7 point advantage each week.

What this means is, it isn’t about picking who will score the most points. If so, at #1 overall, you should take Tom Brady. If you do that though, you’ll be waiting until the end of Round 2 to get your Rbs and end up with some combination of Willie Parker/Jamal Lewis/Reggie Bush instead of Tony Romo, LT and your choice of Parker, Lewis, or Bush. This could really hurt you in the long run of a league, especially with QB play so variable.



Now, Tom Brady had a freakish year at QB, something we see VERY rarely, making him very valuable. This really hurts my argument, and makes the impact a little more minimal. Take a look at 2006 with no major QB at the top, and you’ll have even MORE reason as to why to wait on positions with more depth.

Qbs generally have very little difference between #1 and #14 as compared to Rbs, etc. Wrs have a wide margin, but often it is hard to pinpoint exactly who the top Wrs are. TEs are similar to Qbs except with even less difference between them.


The moral of the story:
Get RBs early and often since there is a huge drop off later. Be aware that the goal isn’t to score the most points, but to score more than anyone else. Therefore, if you weigh your options, you’ll be fine :)

Brothgar
05-09-2008, 09:13 PM
If you are sitting at #1 overall pick I would be right with you. But when you are sitting at 8 or 9 and 7/8 RBs are taken ahead of you and there are 2/4 picks till your next one I'd take the QB. If worse case scenario happens and 9 and 10 take 2 RBs each you already have the best QB now you can get the best WR as well. That is unlikely I'm willing to bet that 9 and 10 will take at least one other position so you can have #1 QB and # 10 or 11 RB I'd take it.

SuperMcGee
05-09-2008, 09:17 PM
If you are sitting at #1 overall pick I would be right with you. But when you are sitting at 8 or 9 and 7/8 RBs are taken ahead of you and there are 2/4 picks till your next one I'd take the QB. If worse case scenario happens and 9 and 10 take 2 RBs each you already have the best QB now you can get the best WR as well. That is unlikely I'm willing to bet that 9 and 10 will take at least one other position so you can have #1 QB and # 10 or 11 RB I'd take it.

You'd suggest if you're the only player that hasn't picked a RB by the time it is your pick in the 2nd round (13th or so), to pass on a RB for a WR with that pick?

Brothgar
05-09-2008, 09:24 PM
You'd suggest if you're the only player that hasn't picked a RB by the time it is your pick in the 2nd round (13th or so), to pass on a RB for a WR with that pick?

Not all the time but yeah I could suggest that which sounds crazy if not a bit risky. Yes you could easily be sitting in round 3 looking for scraps (if by some weird sense of stupidity everyone picks RBs round 1 and 2. But really you aren't going to get a leg up on the competition If you are sitting behind a bunch of players and they are picking a position in front of you. Which also is why I always fill my roster before getting backups. But that is a different topic.

djp
05-09-2008, 09:25 PM
Good article for someone JUST starting to play FF, but this seems really basic..

Any FF player knows that the game is all about scarcity...

scottyboy
05-09-2008, 09:27 PM
sitting at number one, I grab Peyton, but that's just me. the thing that I disagree on a bit Bond is that with SO many injuries to RB's, you could sign a guy or pick up someone off of waivers and he could come in, get you 100 yards and a TD. A back up RB is more likely to you more points than a backup QB would. In a game, who'd get more points if needed? Ahmad Bradshaw, or Andre Woodson/JLoad/Carr(who ever the hell the giants choose)

That's just the way I see it.

djp
05-09-2008, 09:31 PM
sitting at number one, I grab Peyton, but that's just me. the thing that I disagree on a bit Bond is that with SO many injuries to RB's, you could sign a guy or pick up someone off of waivers and he could come in, get you 100 yards and a TD. A back up RB is more likely to you more points than a backup QB would. In a game, who'd get more points if needed? Ahmad Bradshaw, or Andre Woodson/JLoad/Carr(who ever the hell the giants choose)

That's just the way I see it.

???

Taking Peyton Manning #1 is probably the dumbest thing you can do in fantasy.

He wasn't even the highest scoring QB last year... that is taking a huge gamble on your team. Like JBond said, the difference between the top RB and a middle of the pack RB is so much bigger than the top QB and the middle of the pack QB...

Here is the thing though... most of the RB's who will get points are owned almost all the time throughout the season, and there are always starting QB's on the waiver wire.

Who will score more points through the season?

Jason Campbell or Ahmad Bradshaw? Think of it that way..

Brothgar
05-09-2008, 09:31 PM
sitting at number one, I grab Peyton, but that's just me. the thing that I disagree on a bit Bond is that with SO many injuries to RB's, you could sign a guy or pick up someone off of waivers and he could come in, get you 100 yards and a TD. A back up RB is more likely to you more points than a backup QB would. In a game, who'd get more points if needed? Ahmad Bradshaw, or Andre Woodson/JLoad/Carr(who ever the hell the giants choose)

That's just the way I see it.

You also have to look at the bust factor in RB's look at how many of the top rated RB's at the beginning of last season lived up to their rankings. LT did and always does but Adrian Peterson was a 6th round pick. Barber went in the 3rd in my league. Where as Gore and Jackson were taken in the 1st.

djp
05-09-2008, 09:33 PM
PS, JBond, if I make my own series on fantasy football, can I get it stickied too?

Not that I am really opposed to it, but I am just wondering why you get your threads stickied..

LonghornsLegend
05-09-2008, 09:34 PM
Just a little plan I started doing in a few leagues, I would draft ALL RB's in the first 4-5 rounds, seriously, before I got a WR or QB or TE at times...Then from there build my team up by need, so at the end of the draft I won't have all my needs filled or I will be weak at positions, but I'll have the likes of Steven Jackson, Jamal Lewis, Marshawn Lynch, and Marion Barber...While some other team might have Edgerrin James and crap behind him, not only that, when injuries start to pile up guys become desperate and need a back and will pay more for one.


This is only for leagues where there is alot of activity for trades, or guys who don't mind managing their roster to that point, but I start out that way alot and fill in spots with guys off the waiver wire who slip through the cracks every year...I'll end up trading off one of my backs for alot of 2 for 1 deals, a WR1 and a serviceable RB, or a WR2 and a stud TE, I'm a guy who loves to trade, and knowing how valuable the "full-time" RB's are I scoop them up as fast as I can and wait till guys start losing games and panick.


But great write up Jbond, I follow that strategy in most leagues, my 1st qbs are middle tier guys and/or sleepers, this past season I drafted guys like Cutler, Leinart, Rivers, Schaub, guys who are around in the middle of the draft and could either end up great or bust, but you are better off grabing positions that have a deep drop off early on.


Another thing I do is follow the draft tendency, everytime I come up to pick I look at each and every position and see how stacked it is, and how it will look when it comes back around to me, if I haven't got a #1 WR yet and there are only a handful of guys left at my pick I'll make sure I take one, but if there are alot of guys left I know I can grab later I'll pass and maybe grab one of the top 4 TE's or 2nd tier QB's left.

SuperMcGee
05-09-2008, 09:34 PM
Not all the time but yeah I could suggest that which sounds crazy if not a bit risky. Yes you could easily be sitting in round 3 looking for scraps (if by some weird sense of stupidity everyone picks RBs round 1 and 2. But really you aren't going to get a leg up on the competition If you are sitting behind a bunch of players and they are picking a position in front of you. Which also is why I always fill my roster before getting backups. But that is a different topic.

I'm hardly a guy who thinks it's FF law to go RB-RB, but I could never come away without at least one after the first two rounds.

Xiomera
05-09-2008, 09:36 PM
This stuff is golden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I am eating it all up.

djp
05-09-2008, 09:40 PM
But yes, this is the strategy you should be taking if you want to be consistently in the top half of your leagues.

For instance, in a couple of my leagues, my first 4 rounds went..

League 1
1 - RB Reggie Bush
2 - RB Cedric Benson
3 - WR Marvin Harrison
4 - RB Adrian Peterson

League 2
1 - RB Rudi Johnson
2 - RB Marion Barber
3 - RB Adrian Peterson
4 - WR Larry Fitzgerald

League 3
1 - RB Frank Gore
2 - RB Marion Barber
3 - QB Tom Brady
4 - RB Edgerrin James

Shane P. Hallam
05-09-2008, 09:41 PM
sitting at number one, I grab Peyton, but that's just me. the thing that I disagree on a bit Bond is that with SO many injuries to RB's, you could sign a guy or pick up someone off of waivers and he could come in, get you 100 yards and a TD. A back up RB is more likely to you more points than a backup QB would. In a game, who'd get more points if needed? Ahmad Bradshaw, or Andre Woodson/JLoad/Carr(who ever the hell the giants choose)

That's just the way I see it.

Well, a back-up RB is also going to be on a team. Ahmad Bradshaw will get drafted in fantasy leagues this year. Obviously a Giants back-up won't.

You are comparing apples and oranges with this though. There will be QBs who shoot out of the woodwork too. Derek Anderson, Garrard, Garcia all were low key names, the first two always undrafted.

Also, there are 12 QBs starting in your league a week with 24-36 RBs. That's a major difference.

Ahmad Bradshaw was on waivers, so was Derek Anderson. You can't compare a back-up RB to a back-up QB.


DJP, understood, but as you already see, lots of people disagreeing.

Broth:


Let's say you are sitting at 9th out of 12 (as most league do/should have 12 teams,):

You can get: Clinton Porter (1.09)/Marshawn Lynch (1.10 ADP) (Pick who you like) and Peyton Manning (2.02 ADP)

Or you can get: Tom brady: 1.09 ADP and Maurice Jones-Drew/Ryan Grant (2.03)


Here's what we get:

Either a RB you know will be #1, by himself with no worries of production really and the 2nd best QB in the league

OR

A very good QB who you are chancing has last year's numbers and a guy who either will: Split carries or Risk of being a one-year wonder.

Now, I'd take #1 in a second nabbing Portis and Peyton rather than chance Brady and Grant.

scottyboy
05-09-2008, 09:42 PM
???

Taking Peyton Manning #1 is probably the dumbest thing you can do in fantasy.

He wasn't even the highest scoring QB last year... that is taking a huge gamble on your team. Like JBond said, the difference between the top RB and a middle of the pack RB is so much bigger than the top QB and the middle of the pack QB...

Here is the thing though... most of the RB's who will get points are owned almost all the time throughout the season, and there are always starting QB's on the waiver wire.

Who will score more points through the season?

Jason Campbell or Ahmad Bradshaw? Think of it that way..

see this is where opinion and personal strategy matters. I myself, go for consistancy, which Peyton excels in. Year in and year out. Never hurt, LOW LOW LOW bust factor. Whereas opposed to RB's, they are often hurt and have relatively high bust factors.

And who'll get more points next year, Campbell or Bradshaw? the thing is, i'm highly inclined to say Bradshaw, and you could nab him late. He'll basically split carries while Campbell is coming off an injury. So that example wasn't a very good one.

Shane P. Hallam
05-09-2008, 09:44 PM
see this is where opinion and personal strategy matters. I myself, go for consistancy, which Peyton excels in. Year in and year out. Never hurt, LOW LOW LOW bust factor. Whereas opposed to RB's, they are often hurt and have relatively high bust factors.

And who'll get more points next year, Campbell or Bradshaw? the thing is, i'm highly inclined to say Bradshaw, and you could nab him late. He'll basically split carries while Campbell is coming off an injury. So that example wasn't a very good one.


Once again, it isn't about who gets MORE points, as Campbell will likely be riding your bench even if he is outscoring Bradshaw.

And LT has a high bust factor?

Your strategy plays it EXTREMELY safe. What this usually means is a 6 out of 12 finish.

Brothgar
05-09-2008, 09:55 PM
Broth:


Let's say you are sitting at 9th out of 12 (as most league do/should have 12 teams,):

You can get: Clinton Porter (1.09)/Marshawn Lynch (1.10 ADP) (Pick who you like) and Peyton Manning (2.02 ADP)

Or you can get: Tom brady: 1.09 ADP and Maurice Jones-Drew/Ryan Grant (2.03)


Here's what we get:

Either a RB you know will be #1, by himself with no worries of production really and the 2nd best QB in the league

OR

A very good QB who you are chancing has last year's numbers and a guy who either will: Split carries or Risk of being a one-year wonder.

Now, I'd take #1 in a second nabbing Portis and Peyton rather than chance Brady and Grant.

Well regardless of the position you are banking your pick on last years numbers. Ask anyone who took Frank Gore as the 2nd RB off the board. Now in that situation given the choice I'd take option 1 as well mostly because Clinton Portis and Peyton Manning are more reliable than Brady and Lynch although I can't say you could go wrong either way.

Shane P. Hallam
05-09-2008, 10:02 PM
It was Brady and Grant/MJD.

And you were arguing the other way ;)

Brothgar
05-09-2008, 10:07 PM
It was Brady and Grant/MJD.

And you were arguing the other way ;)

Yeah I know and if I knew the other teams would get Brady instead of Peyton I'd be happy taking a RB. That's neither here nor there. I should say it depends on who is there at the pick. If an every down back who is starting for a good team is sitting there I will take that back if I have reason to believe that I could get a reliable QB in the next round.

bored of education
05-09-2008, 11:30 PM
You are godly

scottyboy
05-10-2008, 05:59 AM
Once again, it isn't about who gets MORE points, as Campbell will likely be riding your bench even if he is outscoring Bradshaw.

And LT has a high bust factor?

Your strategy plays it EXTREMELY safe. What this usually means is a 6 out of 12 finish.

eh, last year I was very safe with guys like Peyton, and Holt. I had Ronnie Brown as well, who dominated but got hurt which screwed my season.(when you lose your 1st rounder, you're ******)

I'd rather take the top of the 12 QB's and grab 2 next tier RB's. Points wise, I'm proven wrong, but I don't feel comfortable with my fantasy team going in a season with a Jeff Garcia, Derek Anderson or Kurt Warner, but that's just me.

It really is about your league and how the draft has fallen so far.

Shane P. Hallam
05-10-2008, 12:05 PM
eh, last year I was very safe with guys like Peyton, and Holt. I had Ronnie Brown as well, who dominated but got hurt which screwed my season.(when you lose your 1st rounder, you're ******)

I'd rather take the top of the 12 QB's and grab 2 next tier RB's. Points wise, I'm proven wrong, but I don't feel comfortable with my fantasy team going in a season with a Jeff Garcia, Derek Anderson or Kurt Warner, but that's just me.

It really is about your league and how the draft has fallen so far.

Well, I'm not taking Garcia or Warner either.

Here are the Top 12 QBs:

Brady (1.09), Manning (2.03), Romo (2.07), Brees (3.02), Palmer (4.06), Roethlisberger (4.08), Derek Anderson (5.04) Matt Hasselbeck (5.09) Donovan McNabb (6.01) Marc Bulger (6.08) Vince Young (6.12), Jay Cutler (7.12)

Then after you have Manning at 8.06, Garrard at 8.06.


I'd MUCH rather have top tier RBs, and grab Palmer or Roethlisberger in the 4th. Heck, even Cutler in the 7th or 8th would be excellent and build up the rest of your team.

scottyboy
05-10-2008, 12:26 PM
Well, I'm not taking Garcia or Warner either.

Here are the Top 12 QBs:

Brady (1.09), Manning (2.03), Romo (2.07), Brees (3.02), Palmer (4.06), Roethlisberger (4.08), Derek Anderson (5.04) Matt Hasselbeck (5.09) Donovan McNabb (6.01) Marc Bulger (6.08) Vince Young (6.12), Jay Cutler (7.12)

Then after you have Manning at 8.06, Garrard at 8.06.


I'd MUCH rather have top tier RBs, and grab Palmer or Roethlisberger in the 4th. Heck, even Cutler in the 7th or 8th would be excellent and build up the rest of your team.

I agree with you there, but in a lot of my leagues, QB's go late 1st-early 2nd. A lot of times I'm hard pressed to nab Eli. It depends how your draft is going.