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princefielder28
06-07-2008, 03:56 PM
Big Brown has the first two legs of the Triple Crown and shortly he will go for the third and final leg in the Belmont Stakes. The Belmont is the longest of the three legs at 1.5 miles. Big Brown's biggest competitor Casino Drive has been scratched from the race so the field is down to 9.

Who you got?

As a sleeper I will have to go with Icabad Crane, but with Casino Drive out I don't see a horse that can legitimately contend. Of course in 2004 no one would have predict Birdstone would be the one to upset Smarty Jones.

M.O.T.H.
06-07-2008, 03:59 PM
I was supposed to be there but, one of my buddies couldnt make it so, we just sold our tickets made a heafty profit, though. ha.

Anyway, I think Big Brown has it in the bag...even w/ the hoof and the 1st post position, the field is terrible.

princefielder28
06-07-2008, 04:00 PM
1 Big Brown Kent Desormeaux Rick Dutrow 2-5
2 Guadalcanal Javier Castellano Fred Seitz 50-1
3 Macho Again Garrett Gomez Dallas Stewart 20-1
4 Denis of Cork Robby Albarado David Carroll 12-1
5 Casino Drive Edgar Prado Kazuo Fujisawa 7-2
6 Da'Tara Alan Garcia Nick Zito 30-1
7 Tale of Ekati Eibar Coa Barclay Tagg 20-1
8 Anak Nakal Julien Leparoux Nick Zito 30-1
9 Ready's Echo John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 30-1
10 Icabad Crane Jeremy Rose Graham Motion 20-1


here's the horses with the morning lines

princefielder28
06-07-2008, 04:02 PM
I was supposed to be there but, one of my buddies couldnt make it so, we just sold our tickets made a heafty profit, though. ha.

Anyway, I think Big Brown has it in the bag...even w/ the hoof and the 1st post position, the field is terrible.

I would say the 1st post position isn't as a big of a deal for the Belmont Stakes as it could be for other races. The track is 1.5 miles so there's plenty of time to make up any space that a horse may fall behind with the inside spot and there's only 9 horses so the traffic isn't as great

art vandelay
06-07-2008, 04:06 PM
I'm going with Guadalcanal just because he's 50-1.

M.O.T.H.
06-07-2008, 04:10 PM
I would say the 1st post position isn't as a big of a deal for the Belmont Stakes as it could be for other races. The track is 1.5 miles so there's plenty of time to make up any space that a horse may fall behind with the inside spot and there's only 9 horses so the traffic isn't as great

True...he may have to push a little early though, just to get in a better position...but, it really shouldnt be a problem.

M.O.T.H.
06-07-2008, 04:14 PM
I'm kind of glad I'm not there...Sure, I could have seen history take place live but, the real feel temperture is over 100 degrees...then you factor in all the people bunched together. People are probably dying there right now.

Shane P. Hallam
06-07-2008, 04:18 PM
I'm betting Denis of Cork cleans up and wins. Who wants it?

TitleTown088
06-07-2008, 04:21 PM
Secretariat

MetSox17
06-07-2008, 04:40 PM
Will you all consider this horse with the likes of Secretariat and Affirmed and all the other Triple Crown-ers as legit? With the 'roids and the weak field, and everything considered? I mean i know it doesn't happen often, but this is one of those things that isn't feeling to me like such a great feat, because of the circumstances.

princefielder28
06-07-2008, 04:47 PM
Will you all consider this horse with the likes of Secretariat and Affirmed and all the other Triple Crown-ers as legit? With the 'roids and the weak field, and everything considered? I mean i know it doesn't happen often, but this is one of those things that isn't feeling to me like such a great feat, because of the circumstances.

Big Brown is not on the scale of a Secretariat or Seattle Slew, but he's definitely one of the finest horses regardless of the drugs.

Crickett
06-07-2008, 05:05 PM
I don't know, but if he put on 50 pounds and switched positions, I wonder if he could compete in nascar. I'm j/k. I'm j/k. :D

Just keep in mind, what was the last time you saw a sporting even with the odds Big Brown is getting?
The New England Patriots winning the Superbowl

EvilMonkey
06-07-2008, 05:11 PM
I'll go with Ready's Echo with a late charge at the end

DragonFireKai
06-07-2008, 05:13 PM
Will you all consider this horse with the likes of Secretariat and Affirmed and all the other Triple Crown-ers as legit? With the 'roids and the weak field, and everything considered? I mean i know it doesn't happen often, but this is one of those things that isn't feeling to me like such a great feat, because of the circumstances.

But the weak field is somewhat offset by the sheer number of horses he's beaten. If he wins, he'll have beaten out by far the largest field ever faced by a triple crown winner. When you start to get above 35 or so horses in a field, the odds that one horse can consistently out run all of them is pretty small.

He's not facing the same challenges as Big Red, or other Triple Crown Winners. But he is facing a unique challenge, which is every bit as difficult.

As for the Winstrol Cycles, assuming that they're telling the truth when they say they stopped the cycles just before the Derby, then the bonus he gets is nil. With a medium distance horse like Big Brown, you use winstrol to shorten recovery time, and to attempt to limit injury.

If I had to pick an upset, I'd go with Da'Tara.

M.O.T.H.
06-07-2008, 05:34 PM
Guess we know how much guarantees are worth in horse racing now.

Crickett
06-07-2008, 05:35 PM
But the weak field is somewhat offset by the sheer number of horses he's beaten. If he wins, he'll have beaten out by far the largest field ever faced by a triple crown winner. When you start to get above 35 or so horses in a field, the odds that one horse can consistently out run all of them is pretty small.

He's not facing the same challenges as Big Red, or other Triple Crown Winners. But he is facing a unique challenge, which is every bit as difficult.

As for the Winstrol Cycles, assuming that they're telling the truth when they say they stopped the cycles just before the Derby, then the bonus he gets is nil. With a medium distance horse like Big Brown, you use winstrol to shorten recovery time, and to attempt to limit injury.

If I had to pick an upset, I'd go with Da'Tara.

Good call.

Paul
06-07-2008, 05:35 PM
Well that was Anticlimactic.

SuperMcGee
06-07-2008, 05:36 PM
Me and my dad both had $5 on Da' Tara!!! YES!

KCJ58
06-07-2008, 05:37 PM
Big Brown sux

ATLDirtyBirds
06-07-2008, 05:40 PM
That sucks. Have to feel for the horse somewhat.

M.O.T.H.
06-07-2008, 05:40 PM
$50 million dollars for breeding rights. Crazy.

art vandelay
06-07-2008, 05:40 PM
Big Brown laid a big brown.

keylime_5
06-07-2008, 05:46 PM
That's what, the 10th horse in a row to lose after winning the first two? Okay not really but that's what it seems like. It's beginning to be routine now, you'd think the betters would be smart to bet the field instead of the favorite. I thought this was gonna be the year though b/c the competition doesn't seem like it was as strong as in recent years and it is exactly 30 years since the last triple crown winner, nice even number.

Brent
06-07-2008, 05:47 PM
haha, ESPN spent all that time hyping up that stupid horse and it choked. hilarious.

DragonFireKai
06-07-2008, 05:47 PM
$50 million dollars for breeding rights. Crazy.

Well, they got screwed over. As a triple crown winner, Big Brown would be commanding $300,000 per live cover. As a horse that won the Derby and Preakness, but not the Belmont, that fee drops about 30 fold. Charismatic, the 1999 Derby and Preakness winner only commands $7,000 per live cover. I'd expect Big Brown to command closer to $10K or $12K. By losing that race, the purchasers went from covering their investment in a little over a year and a half, to possibly losing about $40 mil.

DragonFireKai
06-07-2008, 05:54 PM
That's what, the 10th horse in a row to lose after winning the first two? Okay not really but that's what it seems like. It's beginning to be routine now, you'd think the betters would be smart to bet the field instead of the favorite. I thought this was gonna be the year though b/c the competition doesn't seem like it was as strong as in recent years and it is exactly 30 years since the last triple crown winner, nice even number.

Actually, Big Brown the 11th horse to lose the Belmont after winning the first two since Affirmed won the Triple Crown in 1978.

MetSox17
06-07-2008, 06:09 PM
My dad, who was big on the ponies back in his day, told me right off the bat that he didn't seem like himself (Big Brown). He referenced him taking a dump on the track while he was being trotted around. I thought nothing of it and shrugged it off, but he said that that's a sign of nervousness. Well what do ya know, he comes out and he's not the horse everyone knows he can be.

StripedWalrus
06-07-2008, 06:37 PM
My dad, who was big on the ponies back in his day, told me right off the bat that he didn't seem like himself (Big Brown). He referenced him taking a dump on the track while he was being trotted around. I thought nothing of it and shrugged it off, but he said that that's a sign of nervousness. Well what do ya know, he comes out and he's not the horse everyone knows he can be.

I go to Keenland alot since I live in the Lexington Kentucky area and I notice that a horse that takes a "dump" right before a race never wins. My cousin once argued with me over it. He said that a Horse that takes one before the race is lighter LOL and will run faster. SO never bet on a horse that feels the need to relieve itself before a big race =).

MetSox17
06-07-2008, 11:16 PM
I go to Keenland alot since I live in the Lexington Kentucky area and I notice that a horse that takes a "dump" right before a race never wins. My cousin once argued with me over it. He said that a Horse that takes one before the race is lighter LOL and will run faster. SO never bet on a horse that feels the need to relieve itself before a big race =).

That's exactly what my dad said. He used to bet often on the ponies and said he's never seen a horse that takes a crap win the race.

StripedWalrus
06-07-2008, 11:35 PM
That's exactly what my dad said. He used to bet often on the ponies and said he's never seen a horse that takes a crap win the race.

It's interesting what you can learn from people that regularly bet on horses. I knew by the way they were hyping him up before the race that something was wrong. Honestly I think there was a bit of a conspiracy in this race. There was multi millions bet on this horse...and everyone that bet on him lost money. I think the didnt tell the truth about his foot. I think the crack was worse than they said it was too. It was a gambling world conspiracy so the Belmont would make money!!!! heh.

fischbowl
06-08-2008, 12:14 AM
I just wanted to see a Triple Crown in my lifetime. Da Tara is an amazing colt, and I agree with Desormeaux for slowing Big Brown. Something wasn't right

jayceheathman
06-08-2008, 12:19 AM
Its pretty obvious that his foot was a lot worse than the trainers said. There is no way you can go from winning every race by like 7 lengths to getting last. He had a quarter sized hole in his hoof and everyone says its no big deal? It seems like the owner put his horse at risk just for some $$$$$$$$$$$$.

Forenci
06-08-2008, 12:21 AM
I just wanted to see a Triple Crown in my lifetime. Da Tara is an amazing colt, and I agree with Desormeaux for slowing Big Brown. Something wasn't right

I agree with that sentiment too. Clearly Big Brown was either over exhausted or something else was going on, but either way he did the right thing slowing him up at the end.

Perhaps the fact Big Brown couldn't prepare as much as some of the other horses because of the crack in his hoof led to the lack of conditioning.

It's too bad, while the trainer for Big Brown was a total douche you have to feel bad for Kent and his son.

M.O.T.H.
06-08-2008, 12:28 AM
Some think that taking him off of his monthly steroid dosage could have taken a toll on his body. The hoof didnt seem to be the problem...he just seemed tired, they said...it could have been the heat as well. What was it? 110 on the track?

MetSox17
06-08-2008, 12:48 AM
Yeah, i don't think it had anything to do with the hoof.

It's more of the way these horses are bred now a days. Too much emphasis on speed and quickness, that they're basically created for short track racing. A mile and a half is just way too much for a horse that's used to blazing out of the gates.

DragonFireKai
06-08-2008, 01:09 AM
Yeah, i don't think it had anything to do with the hoof.

It's more of the way these horses are bred now a days. Too much emphasis on speed and quickness, that they're basically created for short track racing. A mile and a half is just way too much for a horse that's used to blazing out of the gates.

The distance is an issue, but it's not the big issue. The difference between the Belmont's 1.5 miles, and the Derby's 1.25 miles isn't huge. It really isn't going from the 100 m to the marathon, like ESPN would have you believe. And a fast start versus stalking isn't the issue either, both are valid strategies, and you'll notice that Da'tara led the race wire to wire.

The real issue goes back to the large total field Big Brown faced, as I pointed out earlier.

What is taxing on the horse is running three races in five weeks, not so much having to run 1.5 miles.

When you have a large total field, what happens is that there are very few horses who actually go through all three races. The derby usually has the largest field, this is because it's the first race. Racing has become a business more than a sport, and the difference between having a horse who wins one AC race, and a horse that wins 2 AC races is miniscule compared to both the gap between 2 AC wins and the Triple Crown, or no AC wins and one AC win. So what winds up happening is that the horses that don't win the Derby, focus on winning a single race, rather than trying to win both remaining races, which is what the Derby winner is focusing on.

Who here can guess how many horses actually ran all three races this year?

Forenci
06-08-2008, 01:35 AM
Yeah, i don't think it had anything to do with the hoof.

It's more of the way these horses are bred now a days. Too much emphasis on speed and quickness, that they're basically created for short track racing. A mile and a half is just way too much for a horse that's used to blazing out of the gates.

True, but if I'm not mistaken Big Brown was meant to be a mile and a half horse which was the most surprising thing about it all.

djp
06-08-2008, 01:41 AM
Who wants to bet Toonster put his life savings on Da Tara?

I bet he knew that horse was going to win months ago.