Matthew Jones
08-26-2008, 08:16 PM
Throwing away money: Studying running backs with blockbuster deals
Today I decided to conduct a study of all running backs (to my knowledge - I'm pretty sure I covered most of them) who, in the last few years, have received a large contract (over $20 million, or $5 million per season), and what they have done since receiving that contract. And it's not pretty. Some teams should be very, very afraid. That includes Atlanta (Michael Turner), Philadelphia (Brian Westbrook), and St. Louis (Steven Jackson.) The results are as follows:
Jets RB Thomas Jones
Is considered to be potentially in line to be replaced if he can't find the end zone or up his yards per carry.
Signed a four-year, $20 million extension with New York after being traded.
Year before contract: 296-1210-6 (4.1 ypc)
Year after contract: 310-1119-1 (3.6 ypc)
Now: N/A
Years earned contract: 1/1, three years remaining
The verdict: incomplete, not looking good.
Patriots RB Corey Dillon
Helped New England win a Super Bowl after being aquired in a trade, but did not return to the form shown in his first season.
Signed a five-year, $25 million extension with New England after 2004 season.
Year before contract: 138-541-2 (3.9 ypc)
Year after contract: 345-1635-12 (4.7 ypc)
Now: N/A, retired
Years earned contract: 3/5, retired
The verdict: success, as the Patriots won a Super Bowl.
Bengals RB Rudi Johnson
Is being shopped for a wide receiver, and appears a long shot to make the team's roster after an awful 2007 season.
Signed a five-year, $26 million extension with Cincinnati after 2005 season.
Year before contract: 337-1458-12 (4.3 ypc)
Year after contract: 341-1309-12 (3.8 ypc)
Now: 170-497-3 (2.9 ypc)
Years earned contract: 1/2, three years remaining
The verdict: incomplete, not looking good.
Ravens RB Jamal Lewis
Awarded a large three-year deal after a disappointing 2005, bounced back in 2006, but is no longer with team.
Signed a three-year, $26 million contract with Baltimore after 2005 season.
Year before contract: 269-906-3 (3.4 ypc)
Year after contract: 314-1132-9 (3.6 ypc)
Now: 298-1304-9 (4.4 ypc) (with Cleveland)
Years earned contract: 1/3, no longer with team
The verdict: failure, less than half of contract fulfilled.
Ravens RB Willis McGahee
After a big trade that landed him in Baltimore, McGahee signed a big contract and the jury is still out on him.
Signed a seven-year, $40.1 million contract after the 2006 season.
Year before contract: 259-990-6 (3.8 ypc)
Year after contract: 294-1207-7 (4.1 ypc)
Now: N/A
Years earned contract: 1/1, six years remaining
Texans RB Ahman Green
Signed a big deal with Houston last year and immediately was injured after a few mediocre games, fighting with Steve Slaton for a job.
Signed a four-year, $23 million contract with Houston after 2006 season.
Year before contract: 266-1059-5 (4.0 ypc)
Year after contract: 70-260-2 (3.7 ypc)
Now: N/A
Years earned contract: 0/1, three years remaining
The verdict: incomplete, almost certain failure.
Texans RB Domanick Williams
Signed what was then a massive contract with the Texans but has since been unable to make it onto a team's roster.
Signed a four-year, $22 million contract after 2004 season.
Year before contract: 302-1188-13 (3.9 ypc)
Year after contract: 230-976-2 (4.2 ypc)
Now: Free agent
Years earned contract: 0/4, no longer with team
The verdict: failure, failed to fulfill expectations any year.
Broncos RB Travis Henry
Was considered a prize catch and someone that would put Denver over the top. They failed to make the playoffs and he was released.
Signed a five-year, $22.5 million contract after 2006 season.
Year before contract: 270-1211-7 (4.5 ypc)
Year after contract: 167-691-4 (4.1 ypc)
Now: Free agent
Years earned contract: 0/5, no longer with team
The verdict: failure, already released from team.
Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson
Signed a large contract with the Chargers after the 2004 season - is considered an all-time great, but still without a ring.
Signed an eight-year, $60 million contract after the 2003 season.
Year before contract: 313-1645-13 (5.3 ypc)
Year after contract: 339-1335-17 (3.9 ypc)
Now: 315-1474-15 (4.7 ypc)
Years earned contract: 4/4, four years remaining
The verdict: success, is one of the best NFL running backs.
Chiefs RB Priest Holmes
Signed a four-year deal worth at least $20 million after a number of successful seasons, then battled injuries and is retired.
Signed a four-year, $20+ million contract after 2002 season.
Year before contract: 313-1615-21 (5.2 ypc)
Year after contract: 320-1420-27 (4.4 ypc)
Now: 46-137-0 (3.0 ypc), retired
Years earned contract: 2/4, no longer with team (retired)
The verdict: success, followed up extension with record season.
Chiefs RB Larry Johnson
Was considered to be one of the top running backs in the league after monster 2006, but struggled in 2007 battling injuries.
Signed a six-year, $45 million contract after the 2006 season.
Year before contract: 416-1789-17 (4.3 ypc)
Year after contract: 158-559-3 (3.5)
Now: N/A
Years earned contract: 0/1, five years remaining
The verdict: incomplete, not looking good but could turn around.
Raiders RB LaMont Jordan
After the 2004 season, signed a deal with the Raiders, only to struggle after one season and is now with New England.
Signed a five-year, $27.5 million contract after the 2004 season.
Year before contract: 93-479-2 (5.2 ypc)
Year after contract: 272-1025-9 (3.8 ypc)
Now: 144-549-3 (3.8 ypc)
Years earned contract: 1/5, no longer with team (New England)
The verdict: failure, one good season out of a potential five.
Giants RB Tiki Barber
After 2004 season, signed a two-year extension (for 2007 and 2008) and retired after two seasons, before the Giants won the Super Bowl.
Signed a two-year, $12+ million extension after the 2004 season.
Year before contract: 357-1860-9 (5.2 ypc) (year before extension)
Year after contract: 327-1662-5 (5.1 ypc)
Now: N/A, retired
Years earned contract: 1/2, retired
The verdict: success, put together a solid final season.
Redskins RB Clinton Portis
Is considered to be one of the NFL's better running backs, but not as good as he was in Denver after being traded for Champ Bailey.
Signed an eight-year, $50.5 million contract after the 2003 season.
Year before contract: 290-1591-14 (5.5 ypc)
Year after contract: 343-1315-5 (3.8 ypc)
Now: 325-1262-11 (3.9 ypc)
Years earned contract: 3/4, four years remaining
The verdict: success, although maybe not exactly what they wanted.
Panthers RB Stephen Davis
After a then-record nine-year, $90.75 million contract in 2000 (which he completely failed to honor), Davis signed with Carolina and failed.
Signed a 4-5 year deal worth an estimated $3 million per year after the 2002 season.
Year before contract: 207-820-7 (4.0 ypc)
Year after contract: 318-1444-8 (4.5 ypc)
Now: N/A, retired
Years earned contract: 1/4-5, retired
The verdict: failure, but did play well in Super Bowl season in 2003.
Cardinals RB Edgerrin James
Signed a four-year deal with Arizona after three straight solid seasons with the Colts and has seen his production dip.
Signed a four-year, $30.5 million contract after the 2005 season.
Year before contract: 360-1506-13 (4.2 ypc)
Year after contract: 337-1159-6 (3.4 ypc)
Now: 324-1222-7 (3.8 ypc)
Years earned contract: 2/2, two years remaining
The verdict: success, has done a good job considering.
49ers RB Kevan Barlow
After outplaying Garrison Hearst, received a big extension, which he then played his way out of almost immediately.
Signed a five-year, $20 million contract after the 2003 season.
Year before contract: 201-1024-6 (5.1 ypc)
Year after contract: 244-822-7 (3.4 ypc)
Now: 131-370-6 (2.8 ypc) (New York Jets)
Years earned contract: 0/5, no longer with team (Steelers)
The verdict: failure, although it wasn't as big a deal as some.
49ers RB Frank Gore
Has shown no ill effects from his two torn ACLs in college and has become one of the better running backs in the league.
Signed a four-year, $28 million contract after the 2006 season.
Year before contract: 312-1695-8 (5.4 ypc)
Year after contract: 260-1102-5 (4.2 ypc)
Now: N/A
Years earned contract: 1/1, three years remaining.
The verdict: incomplete, but it was looking good before Martz.
Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander
After winning the league MVP award, signed a huge deal with the Seahawks, which they're probably regretting right now.
Signed an eight-year, $62 million extension after the 2005 season.
Year before contract: 370-1880-27 (5.1 ypc)
Year after contract: 252-896-7 (3.6 ypc)
Now: 207-716-4 (3.5 ypc) (Free agent)
Years earned contract: 0/8, no longer with team
The verdict: failure, miserable seasons since extension.
In conclusion, only a few players (Dillon, Portis, James, and Tomlinson) completely lived up to expectations, while a number (Holmes, etc.) helped out for a short amount of time. The rest flamed out. So unless you know you're getting an elite player without too much tread on his tires, I'd say avoid the running backs, people. I have been outspoken in the past around my college and high school against giving running backs large extensions, and this seems like a pretty good indicator that most players just can't keep up their performances. Running backs have short shelf lives, so it's better to draft one early if you can, than to risk it all on someone who's been a workhorse in the past. If I forgot any running backs who have signed a big deal in the last five years, let me know! Obviously, I didn't include Jackson, Westbrook, etc. because they have not played with their new contracts yet.
EDIT #1: Added Ravens RB Willis McGahee.
EDIT #2: Added 49ers RB Kevan Barlow.
EDIT #3: Added 49ers RB Frank Gore.
Today I decided to conduct a study of all running backs (to my knowledge - I'm pretty sure I covered most of them) who, in the last few years, have received a large contract (over $20 million, or $5 million per season), and what they have done since receiving that contract. And it's not pretty. Some teams should be very, very afraid. That includes Atlanta (Michael Turner), Philadelphia (Brian Westbrook), and St. Louis (Steven Jackson.) The results are as follows:
Jets RB Thomas Jones
Is considered to be potentially in line to be replaced if he can't find the end zone or up his yards per carry.
Signed a four-year, $20 million extension with New York after being traded.
Year before contract: 296-1210-6 (4.1 ypc)
Year after contract: 310-1119-1 (3.6 ypc)
Now: N/A
Years earned contract: 1/1, three years remaining
The verdict: incomplete, not looking good.
Patriots RB Corey Dillon
Helped New England win a Super Bowl after being aquired in a trade, but did not return to the form shown in his first season.
Signed a five-year, $25 million extension with New England after 2004 season.
Year before contract: 138-541-2 (3.9 ypc)
Year after contract: 345-1635-12 (4.7 ypc)
Now: N/A, retired
Years earned contract: 3/5, retired
The verdict: success, as the Patriots won a Super Bowl.
Bengals RB Rudi Johnson
Is being shopped for a wide receiver, and appears a long shot to make the team's roster after an awful 2007 season.
Signed a five-year, $26 million extension with Cincinnati after 2005 season.
Year before contract: 337-1458-12 (4.3 ypc)
Year after contract: 341-1309-12 (3.8 ypc)
Now: 170-497-3 (2.9 ypc)
Years earned contract: 1/2, three years remaining
The verdict: incomplete, not looking good.
Ravens RB Jamal Lewis
Awarded a large three-year deal after a disappointing 2005, bounced back in 2006, but is no longer with team.
Signed a three-year, $26 million contract with Baltimore after 2005 season.
Year before contract: 269-906-3 (3.4 ypc)
Year after contract: 314-1132-9 (3.6 ypc)
Now: 298-1304-9 (4.4 ypc) (with Cleveland)
Years earned contract: 1/3, no longer with team
The verdict: failure, less than half of contract fulfilled.
Ravens RB Willis McGahee
After a big trade that landed him in Baltimore, McGahee signed a big contract and the jury is still out on him.
Signed a seven-year, $40.1 million contract after the 2006 season.
Year before contract: 259-990-6 (3.8 ypc)
Year after contract: 294-1207-7 (4.1 ypc)
Now: N/A
Years earned contract: 1/1, six years remaining
Texans RB Ahman Green
Signed a big deal with Houston last year and immediately was injured after a few mediocre games, fighting with Steve Slaton for a job.
Signed a four-year, $23 million contract with Houston after 2006 season.
Year before contract: 266-1059-5 (4.0 ypc)
Year after contract: 70-260-2 (3.7 ypc)
Now: N/A
Years earned contract: 0/1, three years remaining
The verdict: incomplete, almost certain failure.
Texans RB Domanick Williams
Signed what was then a massive contract with the Texans but has since been unable to make it onto a team's roster.
Signed a four-year, $22 million contract after 2004 season.
Year before contract: 302-1188-13 (3.9 ypc)
Year after contract: 230-976-2 (4.2 ypc)
Now: Free agent
Years earned contract: 0/4, no longer with team
The verdict: failure, failed to fulfill expectations any year.
Broncos RB Travis Henry
Was considered a prize catch and someone that would put Denver over the top. They failed to make the playoffs and he was released.
Signed a five-year, $22.5 million contract after 2006 season.
Year before contract: 270-1211-7 (4.5 ypc)
Year after contract: 167-691-4 (4.1 ypc)
Now: Free agent
Years earned contract: 0/5, no longer with team
The verdict: failure, already released from team.
Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson
Signed a large contract with the Chargers after the 2004 season - is considered an all-time great, but still without a ring.
Signed an eight-year, $60 million contract after the 2003 season.
Year before contract: 313-1645-13 (5.3 ypc)
Year after contract: 339-1335-17 (3.9 ypc)
Now: 315-1474-15 (4.7 ypc)
Years earned contract: 4/4, four years remaining
The verdict: success, is one of the best NFL running backs.
Chiefs RB Priest Holmes
Signed a four-year deal worth at least $20 million after a number of successful seasons, then battled injuries and is retired.
Signed a four-year, $20+ million contract after 2002 season.
Year before contract: 313-1615-21 (5.2 ypc)
Year after contract: 320-1420-27 (4.4 ypc)
Now: 46-137-0 (3.0 ypc), retired
Years earned contract: 2/4, no longer with team (retired)
The verdict: success, followed up extension with record season.
Chiefs RB Larry Johnson
Was considered to be one of the top running backs in the league after monster 2006, but struggled in 2007 battling injuries.
Signed a six-year, $45 million contract after the 2006 season.
Year before contract: 416-1789-17 (4.3 ypc)
Year after contract: 158-559-3 (3.5)
Now: N/A
Years earned contract: 0/1, five years remaining
The verdict: incomplete, not looking good but could turn around.
Raiders RB LaMont Jordan
After the 2004 season, signed a deal with the Raiders, only to struggle after one season and is now with New England.
Signed a five-year, $27.5 million contract after the 2004 season.
Year before contract: 93-479-2 (5.2 ypc)
Year after contract: 272-1025-9 (3.8 ypc)
Now: 144-549-3 (3.8 ypc)
Years earned contract: 1/5, no longer with team (New England)
The verdict: failure, one good season out of a potential five.
Giants RB Tiki Barber
After 2004 season, signed a two-year extension (for 2007 and 2008) and retired after two seasons, before the Giants won the Super Bowl.
Signed a two-year, $12+ million extension after the 2004 season.
Year before contract: 357-1860-9 (5.2 ypc) (year before extension)
Year after contract: 327-1662-5 (5.1 ypc)
Now: N/A, retired
Years earned contract: 1/2, retired
The verdict: success, put together a solid final season.
Redskins RB Clinton Portis
Is considered to be one of the NFL's better running backs, but not as good as he was in Denver after being traded for Champ Bailey.
Signed an eight-year, $50.5 million contract after the 2003 season.
Year before contract: 290-1591-14 (5.5 ypc)
Year after contract: 343-1315-5 (3.8 ypc)
Now: 325-1262-11 (3.9 ypc)
Years earned contract: 3/4, four years remaining
The verdict: success, although maybe not exactly what they wanted.
Panthers RB Stephen Davis
After a then-record nine-year, $90.75 million contract in 2000 (which he completely failed to honor), Davis signed with Carolina and failed.
Signed a 4-5 year deal worth an estimated $3 million per year after the 2002 season.
Year before contract: 207-820-7 (4.0 ypc)
Year after contract: 318-1444-8 (4.5 ypc)
Now: N/A, retired
Years earned contract: 1/4-5, retired
The verdict: failure, but did play well in Super Bowl season in 2003.
Cardinals RB Edgerrin James
Signed a four-year deal with Arizona after three straight solid seasons with the Colts and has seen his production dip.
Signed a four-year, $30.5 million contract after the 2005 season.
Year before contract: 360-1506-13 (4.2 ypc)
Year after contract: 337-1159-6 (3.4 ypc)
Now: 324-1222-7 (3.8 ypc)
Years earned contract: 2/2, two years remaining
The verdict: success, has done a good job considering.
49ers RB Kevan Barlow
After outplaying Garrison Hearst, received a big extension, which he then played his way out of almost immediately.
Signed a five-year, $20 million contract after the 2003 season.
Year before contract: 201-1024-6 (5.1 ypc)
Year after contract: 244-822-7 (3.4 ypc)
Now: 131-370-6 (2.8 ypc) (New York Jets)
Years earned contract: 0/5, no longer with team (Steelers)
The verdict: failure, although it wasn't as big a deal as some.
49ers RB Frank Gore
Has shown no ill effects from his two torn ACLs in college and has become one of the better running backs in the league.
Signed a four-year, $28 million contract after the 2006 season.
Year before contract: 312-1695-8 (5.4 ypc)
Year after contract: 260-1102-5 (4.2 ypc)
Now: N/A
Years earned contract: 1/1, three years remaining.
The verdict: incomplete, but it was looking good before Martz.
Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander
After winning the league MVP award, signed a huge deal with the Seahawks, which they're probably regretting right now.
Signed an eight-year, $62 million extension after the 2005 season.
Year before contract: 370-1880-27 (5.1 ypc)
Year after contract: 252-896-7 (3.6 ypc)
Now: 207-716-4 (3.5 ypc) (Free agent)
Years earned contract: 0/8, no longer with team
The verdict: failure, miserable seasons since extension.
In conclusion, only a few players (Dillon, Portis, James, and Tomlinson) completely lived up to expectations, while a number (Holmes, etc.) helped out for a short amount of time. The rest flamed out. So unless you know you're getting an elite player without too much tread on his tires, I'd say avoid the running backs, people. I have been outspoken in the past around my college and high school against giving running backs large extensions, and this seems like a pretty good indicator that most players just can't keep up their performances. Running backs have short shelf lives, so it's better to draft one early if you can, than to risk it all on someone who's been a workhorse in the past. If I forgot any running backs who have signed a big deal in the last five years, let me know! Obviously, I didn't include Jackson, Westbrook, etc. because they have not played with their new contracts yet.
EDIT #1: Added Ravens RB Willis McGahee.
EDIT #2: Added 49ers RB Kevan Barlow.
EDIT #3: Added 49ers RB Frank Gore.