2009 MLB Discussion Thread

[IndyColtScout]

the Cubs most certainly are the best team in the NL... good thing for the rest of the NL however that the Cubs don't have the greatest postseason history around.

Cubs are not the best team in the NL. They are the team with the most talent.

It's like saying the Yankees are the best team in the AL. No they are not, they are the team with the most talent in the AL.

[Brodeur]

Posted this in the Phillies forum:



That is how I see it, and I consider myself a pretty realistic fan. I'm not going to say that the Mets aren't better. At the same time, their overall rotation doesn't impress me much. KRod is a huge upgrade, but what Beltran will we see? What Reyes will show up? Can Delgado really do it again? Lots to consider. I think the Mets and Phils will battle it out this year for the division, but I think the Cubs are the best team in the NL (based on talent).

What Beltran will we see? He had one mediocre year 4 years ago for god sakes. And the Reyes that the Mets will get will be the 2nd best SS in the majors.

Also, Burrell has been the better fielder over the last few years so there is zero upgrade there. Zero.

[VoteLynnSwan]

Cubs are not the best team in the NL. They are the team with the most talent.

It's like saying the Yankees are the best team in the AL. No they are not, they are the team with the most talent in the AL.

They were the best team in the regular season last year... no one has gotten that much better, it's not unreasonable to think that they'd be the best team this year as well. However as is abundantly obvious... it doesn't really matter who the best team was during the regular season once you get to October.

[bsaza2358]

Phillies pitching staff is borderline terrible (Cole MF Hamels excluded of course).

Yes, the team with the lowest team ERA in the NL in 2008 has a terrible pitching staff. Good point...

[IndyColtScout]

When are the Mets going to call up that stud 19 year old OF? Can't remember his name but he is spanish/latino.

[Tha Wootster]

Fernando Martinez ?

[IndyColtScout]

They were the best team in the regular season last year... no one has gotten that much better, it's not unreasonable to think that they'd be the best team this year as well. However as is abundantly obvious... it doesn't really matter who the best team was during the regular season once you get to October.

I don't think we can call anyone the best team until June at least.

[Tampa 2 4 life]

Ibanez 2008: .293 avg, .358 obp, 23 HR, 110 RBI career average: .283
Burrell 2008: .250 avg, .367 OBP, 33 HR, 86 RBI career average .257

Not to mention there's no way in hell Ibanez has worse range than Burrell and Burrell put up those stats despite being in one of the game's best lineups, where Ibanez was in one of the worst

Batting Average sucks like Raul ibanez, and his range is in fact worse.

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/9711/RaulError3.gif

[nobodyinparticular]

When are the Mets going to call up that stud 19 year old OF? Can't remember his name but he is spanish/latino.

Fernando Martinez. He probably needs another year or two before he's ready. That said, I could see the Mets calling him up in July.

[IndyColtScout]

Fernando Martinez ?

yea what's going on with him? Why isn't he a Met yet?

[bsaza2358]

The Cubs had the most talent last year and have a better team this year IMO in terms of raw talent. In baseball, the most talented team tends to win. The Cubs had the best record in the NL. They should be great again this year if they stay healthy.

[Tampa 2 4 life]

What Beltran will we see? He had one mediocre year 4 years ago for god sakes. And the Reyes that the Mets will get will be the 2nd best SS in the majors.

Also, Burrell has been the better fielder over the last few years so there is zero upgrade there. Zero.

WILL WE SEE THE BEST CF IN BASEBALL OR THE THIRD BEST TO GRADY AND BJ???

[nobodyinparticular]

Batting Average sucks like Raul ibanez, and his range is in fact worse.

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/9711/RaulError3.gif

Fangraphs lists Ibanez' UZR/150 as slightly better than Burrell last year.

[nobodyinparticular]

yea what's going on with him? Why isn't he a Met yet?

Well, he's only 20 years old (young for baseball prospects) and he was just barely above average in AA last year. He's not a bad prospect, but he needs more seasoning before he's ready for major league pitchers.

[bsaza2358]

I think the Mets are a good team and probably should win the East. That being said the Phillies are quite solid and have a lot of swagger and confidence. Winning helps...

[Brodeur]

Batting Average sucks like Raul ibanez, and his range is in fact worse.

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/9711/RaulError3.gif

HEY, I posted 4 GIF's first.

[bsaza2358]

You show 1 video and 4 GIF's and Ibanez is worse than Burrell? Remember that more range is needed to cover Seattle's LF than Philly's. In addition, the Phils have Victorino to help cover for Ibanez (just like Burrell). Over the last 3 years, Burrell has the lowest +/- rating of all MLB LF's, and Ibanez is about 38 better (per Bill James).

[Tampa 2 4 life]

Fangraphs lists Ibanez' UZR/150 as slightly better than Burrell last year.

Use three year averages. He's worse, although slightly better than Manny, so thats something I guess.

[IndyColtScout]

I'm sure none of you care about the Bucs but I have see McCutchen play a lot here in Indy and he is a stud defensive player (as well as getting around the bases). He doesn't have much power right, but he is so exciting to watch.

I am also curious to see when those two Indian guys (from India not Indianapolis Indians) whom are new pitchers from crickett. Wonder how long until they get to triple AAA?

[Tampa 2 4 life]

You show 1 video and 4 GIF's and Ibanez is worse than Burrell? Remember that more range is needed to cover Seattle's LF than Philly's. In addition, the Phils have Victorino to help cover for Ibanez (just like Burrell). Over the last 3 years, Burrell has the lowest +/- rating of all MLB LF's, and Ibanez is about 38 better (per Bill James).

UZR is better than both of those and park factored.

[Brodeur]

I'm sure none of you care about the Bucs but I have see McCutchen play a lot here in Indy and he is a stud defensive player (as well as getting around the bases). He doesn't have much power right, but he is so exciting to watch.

Quiet down because Hines is lurking around.

[IndyColtScout]

Quiet down because Hines is lurking around.

Cutch literally reminds me of Willy Mays Hayes before the power swing (and ego).

[Tampa 2 4 life]

Well, the stats speak for themselves when it comes to proving who's better between Burrell and Ibanez.

And as for our rotation:

Blanton is a quality innings eater. The Phillies lost a grand total of 4 games in 13 starts which he started last year. There's a slightly better than 2/3 chance we'll win when he starts. Not to mention he came through big whenever we needed him. He's a glorified #3 starter, that's what we thought of him when we traded for him and that's what he is, and he's a damn good one.

He's barely better than Edwin Jackson.

[bsaza2358]

Fair enough. Hard to argue with in-depth statistical analysis. That being said, Burrell was declining rapidly in terms of his overall skills in the field. He was a liability, and he was never so clutch in big situations. I'm sorry to see him go because he's been such a mainstay. At the same time, I'm not personally thrilled with Ibanez. I wanted a righty bat, and I wish the Phils would have a righty.

That being said, I would say the Phillies should still contend for the NL East and a playoff spot.

[bsaza2358]

He's barely better than Edwin Jackson.

Blanton is a solid #3 in the NL. I'd be happier with him as my #4, but I'll take him at #3 with Moyer at #4 and Happ or Park at #5 with the knowledge that Carlos Carrasco could be an awesome midseason call-up.

[Tampa 2 4 life]

Fair enough. Hard to argue with in-depth statistical analysis. That being said, Burrell was declining rapidly in terms of his overall skills in the field. He was a liability, and he was never so clutch in big situations. I'm sorry to see him go because he's been such a mainstay. At the same time, I'm not personally thrilled with Ibanez. I wanted a righty bat, and I wish the Phils would have a righty.

That being said, I would say the Phillies should still contend for the NL East and a playoff spot.

The second year of the Burrell contract scares me.

[bsaza2358]

As a DH, he's great. He works counts, he has power, he will get on base, he isn't afraid to walk. He isn't a bad clubhouse guy either. He also has a ton to prove to everyone after getting a small dollar contract...

[Brodeur]

Blanton is a solid #3 in the NL. I'd be happier with him as my #4, but I'll take him at #3 with Moyer at #4 and Happ or Park at #5 with the knowledge that Carlos Carrasco could be an awesome midseason call-up.

Park is no longer a starter in this league.

[bsaza2358]

He's there and he's an arm. I'm fine with Happ and Kendrick until Carrasco can get up there.

[IndyColtScout]

As a DH, he's great. He works counts, he has power, he will get on base, he isn't afraid to walk. He isn't a bad clubhouse guy either. He also has a ton to prove to everyone after getting a small dollar contract...

Has Burrell ever played any 1B?

[bsaza2358]

He did a little back in 1999 or so when the team got Travis Lee. He was a 3B at Miami, but he's been LF for a while. Not like he's gonna displace Pena in TB...

[Brodeur]

He's there and he's an arm. I'm fine with Happ and Kendrick until Carrasco can get up there.

Kendrick is bad beyond description.

[Borat]

My bad. I'll rephrase. Philly's rotation is slightly above terrible (Cole MF Hamels excluded of course)

[bsaza2358]

He is acceptable for his salary, and if he puts in the work, he can be a functional #5. Period.

[bsaza2358]

My bad. I'll rephrase. Philly's rotation is slightly above terrible (Cole MF Hamels excluded of course)

Philly's rotation outside of Hamels is average/slightly below average for an NL team. Their bullpen is incredibly strong, and Rich Dubee is a great pitching coach.

[IndyColtScout]

He did a little back in 1999 or so when the team got Travis Lee. He was a 3B at Miami, but he's been LF for a while. Not like he's gonna displace Pena in TB...

No doubt, I was just thinking maybe in case Pena got hurt. Wasn't Floyd used as like a backup 1B last year even though he was an OF for the majority of his career?

[bsaza2358]

Burrell could play there if you needed him, but he's there to help mentor the young guys about plate discipline and to hit as a righty platoon DH.

[Tampa 2 4 life]

No doubt, I was just thinking maybe in case Pena got hurt. Wasn't Floyd used as like a backup 1B last year even though he was an OF for the majority of his career?

You're thinking of Hinske.

[IndyColtScout]

You're thinking of Hinske.

Any word on the decision to keep Niemann or Hammell?

[Tampa 2 4 life]

Any word on the decision to keep Niemann or Hammell?

I have no idea. Maybe we could try to sneak Hammel through waivers.

[bsaza2358]

Hammel has a chance, but I would assume someone would try to claim him because of his lower cost.

[bsaza2358]

Zero chance Niemann makes it through. He's too well known and still has excellent upside. I think the Rays would be best off if they traded him for other prospects in areas of need. Perhaps a SS of the future in case Brignac can't turn it around?

[Brodeur]

Zero chance Niemann makes it through. He's too well known and still has excellent upside. I think the Rays would be best off if they traded him for other prospects in areas of need. Perhaps a SS of the future in case Brignac can't turn it around?

There's this guy named Tim Beckham they have...

[bsaza2358]

Can you guys wait for him for 3 years with Bartlett? Beckham is a great talent, but he needs 3 years AT LEAST. You know that.

[bsaza2358]

And BJ Upton was a SS of the future, and now he's a CF. You never know if he has to switch to 2B or 3B or RF... 18 year old players are rarely good enough to be what they're going to be at that age...

[D-Unit]

Burrell could play there if you needed him, but he's there to help mentor the young guys about plate discipline and to hit as a righty platoon DH.
You must be sad that he left town.. I think he was one of your favorite Phillies... right?

[IndyColtScout]

And BJ Upton was a SS of the future, and now he's a CF. You never know if he has to switch to 2B or 3B or RF... 18 year old players are rarely good enough to be what they're going to be at that age...

It would awesome if they had Beckham's name and pic in the Show 09, but I am sure that won't happen. DRays are going to be such a sick franchise mode.

[bored of education]

Arod gained some points in my eyes by admitting that he was stupid for doing so. No excuse for doing it, but at least he admitted it. Good for him. Now move on and dont hit .198 in September!

[bsaza2358]

You must be sad that he left town.. I think he was one of your favorite Phillies... right?

I like the guy. I've met him at a strip club, and he bought me a lap dance (ha). Was always good with the media, was accountable in terms of making mistakes or not playing as well as he's wanted, etc. He's a good team guy, but his skills didn't match with what the Phillies needed anymore.

[iowatreat54]

So in case anyone didn't know, ARod is already > Bonds just because of today.

[IndyColtScout]

So in case anyone didn't know, ARod is already > Bonds just because of today.

I hope Pujols beats them all.

[bored of education]

So in case anyone didn't know, ARod is already > Bonds just because of today.

I def. agree. Props to AROD for manning up to his **** ups.

[bored of education]

I hope Pujols beats them all.

what if he is one of the 103? :D

[IndyColtScout]

I def. agree. Props to AROD for manning up to his **** ups.

His lawyer wrote him a script I could tell. Yeah he manned up and admitted he cheated, but I think he is lying about the timeline. I think it was longer than three years.

[IndyColtScout]

what if he is one of the 103? :D

Then I will be dissapointed in him as well, and it will be left to the Upton Brothers.

[bored of education]

Then I will be dissapointed in him as well, and it will be left to the Upton Brothers.

I understand about previous post, he only had to apologize for the 2003 issue which he did. Timeline for now doesn't matter for me unless he has other positive tests. And The Uptons will take ovaaa

[iowatreat54]

I hope Pujols beats them all.

I would laugh if it comes out to Pujols did steroids. But if he admits it after it comes out like ARod did, I will at least still respect him.

[bsaza2358]

A-Rod is savvy enough to realize that apologizing and admitting to something way in the past while still doing whatever in the future. I have no doubt that he and everyone else has moved on to the next less detectable substance. Unlike everyone else, I've just written off the era as steroid-ridden. It's a level playing field because everyone is on them. It's a sad fact. It's all about money and greed for everyone, and we can't go backwards. I just don't care...

[iowatreat54]

Also, all this said, if players like ARod or if Bonds finally admits to it, if they get in the HoF then Pete Rose sure as hell be right there along side of them or it will be a travesty.

[IndyColtScout]

I still don't think drug testing is good enough.

These guys make lots of money. Where is the problem with getting weekly blood test? The teams can afford it, and players need to look at this as part of earning their cash. Blood testing should be mandatory in every sport even debatable sports like bowling, pool, golf, etc...

[twista6002]

you did not quote the RISP numbers... you were basing your argument off BA and RBIs.

I didn't realize I was going to need to go so in depth to prove something simple like Ibanez being better than Burrell.

[bored of education]

I didn't realize I was going to need to go so in depth to prove something simple like Ibanez being better than Burrell.

You are new here and will come to realize you need to bring ever stat to the table even vORP, ISIQ, eVc squared etc Welcome!

[twista6002]

Posted this in the Phillies forum:



That is how I see it, and I consider myself a pretty realistic fan. I'm not going to say that the Mets aren't better. At the same time, their overall rotation doesn't impress me much. KRod is a huge upgrade, but what Beltran will we see? What Reyes will show up? Can Delgado really do it again? Lots to consider. I think the Mets and Phils will battle it out this year for the division, but I think the Cubs are the best team in the NL (based on talent).

Talent wise the Mets and the Cubs might be better than the Phillies. But like I said, game aren't won in paper. Last year the Phillies weren't supposed to win the NL East and they did. They weren't supposed to beat the Dodgers, and they did. And then they weren't supposed to beat the Rays, and they did. My point is the best team isn't measured in big names and publicity, but more who plays better as a team and who can win a big game, something the Mets and Cubs are awful at and something the Phillies have mastered. That being said, the Phillies are the best team in the NL after convincingly winning the NL pennant and doing nothing but upgrade this offseason. Not to mention we have a phenomenal batch of young players ready to make a splash.

[twista6002]

Phillies pitching staff is borderline terrible (Cole MF Hamels excluded of course).

:rolleyes: typical

remind me again of what team gave up the 3rd fewest runs in baseball despite playing in a hitter friendly park

[nobodyinparticular]

A-Rod is savvy enough to realize that apologizing and admitting to something way in the past while still doing whatever in the future. I have no doubt that he and everyone else has moved on to the next less detectable substance. Unlike everyone else, I've just written off the era as steroid-ridden. It's a level playing field because everyone is on them. It's a sad fact. It's all about money and greed for everyone, and we can't go backwards. I just don't care...

I was a part of the "everyone else" until this news about A-rod came up. Now I have joined you.

[twista6002]

Who had the better OPS last year twista?

Burrell--.874
Ibanez--.837

wOBA
Burrell--.374
Ibanez--.356

UZR/150
Burrell-- (-14.7)
Ibanez-- (-11.0)

Ibanez is about 3 runs less bad than Burrell defensively, but Burrell more than makes up for that with his .018 wOBA advantage.

It's not a blowout, but it looks like Burrell is slightly better than Ibanez. And the Phillies lost a draft pick, paid more for Ibanez, traded out a much-needed righty for a lefty stick, and got the guy who is 4 years older.

The Phillies made a bad choice.

To win games, you need to score runs. It's an ancient concept that goes as far back as baseball has ever been around. Ibanez drove in more runs, and scored more. Despite being in one of the worst lineups in baseball and being in a pitcher friendly park. Not to mention and I can't emphasize this enough, his average was 100 points higher than Burrell with runners on.

[twista6002]

What Beltran will we see? He had one mediocre year 4 years ago for god sakes. And the Reyes that the Mets will get will be the 2nd best SS in the majors.

Also, Burrell has been the better fielder over the last few years so there is zero upgrade there. Zero.

Good thing I was mostly refering to his offense...

[twista6002]

I think the Mets are a good team and probably should win the East. That being said the Phillies are quite solid and have a lot of swagger and confidence. Winning helps...

You know that's funny...I've heard people say the same things for two years now. So many people say that, by golly it's the darndest thing they're never right.

[Tampa 2 4 life]

To win games, you need to score runs. It's an ancient concept that goes as far back as baseball has ever been around. Ibanez drove in more runs, and scored more. Despite being in one of the worst lineups in baseball and being in a pitcher friendly park. Not to mention and I can't emphasize this enough, his average was 100 points higher than Burrell with runners on.

The amount of runs a team scores correlates more towards wOBA to batting average, On Base, RBIs or anything else.


By the way, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Shane Victorino were the keys to the Phillies run prevention, not the mediocre at best pitching staff.

PPS: Chad Bradford out 3-4 months. :<

[twista6002]

He's barely better than Edwin Jackson.


http://i63.photobucket.com/albums/h145/Twista6002/fail-1.gif

[Borat]

:rolleyes: typical

remind me again of what team gave up the 3rd fewest runs in baseball despite playing in a hitter friendly park

Care to wager that they're worse this year?

[twista6002]

Kendrick is bad beyond description.

And chances are he won't be in the rotation so it's a moot point.

[Tampa 2 4 life]

Dumb oversized picture.

Blanton: K/9 = 5.05, BB/9 = 3.01, HR/9 = 1, 35% Fly Balls
Jackson: K/9=5.30, BB/9 = 3.78, HR/9 = 1.13, FB% = 40%

SOOO MUCH BETTER.

Andy Sonnanstine pwns them both.

[Tampa 2 4 life]

what if he is one of the 103? :D

He very well could be.

[M.O.T.H.]

All this Burrell/Ibanez talk...please, yall are just jealous of the greatness that is the potential of a Matt Diaz/Brandon Jones platoon in left. Oh yes. :(

In all seriousness, though. Hopefullly, BJ has put in some good work this off-season. At one time, he was on the fast track to becoming a very good player...He doesnt look to be one of Bobby's favorites, though...so, he's going to have to work twice as hard as everyone else. Once Bobby makes up his mind, it isnt easy to win him over.

As for Diaz...I used to love him but, his injuries sure did mount and his balance was all out of whack at the plate a year ago for some reason or another. Hopefully, he'll be able to make a stong return.

This of course, if we dont add a power hitting left fielder. Heard we're still a little interested in Nick Swisher (ugh) and Xavier Nady.

[Tampa 2 4 life]

Talent wise the Mets and the Cubs might be better than the Phillies. But like I said, game aren't won in paper. Last year the Phillies weren't supposed to win the NL East and they did. They weren't supposed to beat the Dodgers, and they did. And then they weren't supposed to beat the Rays, and they did. My point is the best team isn't measured in big names and publicity, but more who plays better as a team and who can win a big game, something the Mets and Cubs are awful at and something the Phillies have mastered. That being said, the Phillies are the best team in the NL after convincingly winning the NL pennant and doing nothing but upgrade this offseason. Not to mention we have a phenomenal batch of young players ready to make a splash.

...Because a random sampling of ~15-20 games is a look into a team's true talent?

[twista6002]

The amount of runs a team scores correlates more towards wOBA to batting average, On Base, RBIs or anything else.


By the way, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Shane Victorino were the keys to the Phillies run prevention, not the mediocre at best pitching staff.

PPS: Chad Bradford out 3-4 months. :<

Tampa fan I see. I sense bitterness...

So 2 gold glovers automattically takes a significant amount of runs of the board? I could've sworn after his demotion Myers came back and was throwing 95+ on the paint and wicked curve balls. I could've sworn Blanton and Moyer was getting guys to roll over and hit into double plays whenever it was a tight and clutch situation. I could've sworn we had the worst defensive left fielder in baseball. Heck I could've sworn our ridiculously small field maybe blows up our pitchers stats and makes them look worse than they really are. But what do I know, I'm just a crazy homer?

[bsaza2358]

Fact: The Phillies pitching staff lacks big names (outside of Lidge and Hamels), but they have been really efficient thanks to excellent up the middle D plus some really good play in RF from Werth and Feliz at 3B. The pitchers pitch to contact, and the fielders tend to field, despite big fielding holes in Howard and Burrell/Ibanez. Stop calling a team that (as was already stated) gave up the 3rd fewest runs in 2008 mediocre. It's idiotic based on facts.

[twista6002]

Care to wager that they're worse this year?

Wager? Well I'm kind of poor because I'm a college student. What did you have in mind?

[Tampa 2 4 life]

Tampa fan I see. I sense bitterness...

So 2 gold glovers automattically takes a significant amount of runs of the board? I could've sworn after his demotion Myers came back and was throwing 95+ on the paint and wicked curve balls. I could've sworn Blanton and Moyer was getting guys to roll over and hit into double plays whenever it was a tight and clutch situation. I could've sworn we had the worst defensive left fielder in baseball. Heck I could've sworn our ridiculously small field maybe blows up our pitchers stats and makes them look worse than they really are. But what do I know, I'm just a crazy homer?

Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins alone take off 30 runs. I don't care about that other stuff you said that is either off topic or already has been rebutted.

[bsaza2358]

If you guys are going to wager, what are you wagering on? Number of runs surrendered? Rank? Team ERA? You have to set some form of standards.

[Brodeur]

To win games, you need to score runs. It's an ancient concept that goes as far back as baseball has ever been around. Ibanez drove in more runs, and scored more. Despite being in one of the worst lineups in baseball and being in a pitcher friendly park. Not to mention and I can't emphasize this enough, his average was 100 points higher than Burrell with runners on.

Yet he had more opportunities with guys in scoring position, and Safeco is very friendly to left handed hitters. It blows for righties though.

[bsaza2358]

Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins alone take off 30 runs. I don't care about that other stuff you said that is either off topic or already has been rebutted.

So you're going to kill the Phillies because they built a home-grown up the middle defensive group that is very good or even excellent? Even if you discount this fact, the Phillies pitchers were excellent in 2008 (particularly down the stretch and in October) about pitching to contact and getting the hitters to put the ball in play to the strong fielders. No one is going to K 27 guys a night. Good pitchers pitch to contact and control the game through pitch location, speed, tilt, etc.

[bsaza2358]

How about we stop wasting time discussing Raul Ibanez (who is barely worth mentioning) and move on. We'll see if he was worth the investment very shortly.

[Tampa 2 4 life]

So you're going to kill the Phillies because they built a home-grown up the middle defensive group that is very good or even excellent? Even if you discount this fact, the Phillies pitchers were excellent in 2008 (particularly down the stretch and in October) about pitching to contact and getting the hitters to put the ball in play to the strong fielders. No one is going to K 27 guys a night. Good pitchers pitch to contact and control the game through pitch location, speed, tilt, etc.

I am saying that the phillies are mediocre pitching and great fielding, End of story. By the way, pitching to contact is only good if you're getting ground balls.

[twista6002]

Blanton: K/9 = 5.05, BB/9 = 3.01, HR/9 = 1, 35% Fly Balls
Jackson: K/9=5.30, BB/9 = 3.78, HR/9 = 1.13, FB% = 40%

SOOO MUCH BETTER.

Andy Sonnanstine pwns them both.

I never said anything about Sonnastine, but success isn't measured in strikeouts and home runs given up.

Games are measured when your team needs you to get a guy out or late in the season when you need one of your backend starters to come up big.

Guys hit .246 after the all-star break against Blanton where it was .320 against Jackson. After pitch 61, guys hit .243 against him. Those are arguably the most important parts of the season and game. Not to mention Blanton was brilliant in the playoffs.

The difference between Blanton and Jackson is kind of like the difference between the Phils and the rest of the NL. Sure we're not flashly, but when a game or season is on the line we're your best bet.

[Tampa 2 4 life]

I never said anything about Sonnastine, but success isn't measured in strikeouts and home runs given up.

Games are measured when your team needs you to get a guy out or late in the season when you need one of your backend starters to come up big.

Guys hit .246 after the all-star break against Blanton where it was .320 against Jackson. After pitch 61, guys hit .243 against him. Those are arguably the most important parts of the season and game. Not to mention Blanton was brilliant in the playoffs.

The difference between Blanton and Jackson is kind of like the difference between the Phils and the rest of the NL. Sure we're not flashly, but when a game or season is on the line we're your best bet.

David Eckstein and Derek jeter are the best players ever!!!!!!!!! ^_^

Also, I don't give a **** about Batting Average.

[bsaza2358]

I am saying that the phillies are mediocre pitching and great fielding, End of story. By the way, pitching to contact is only good if you're getting ground balls.

I would say that the Phillies have excellent defense in key areas (C, 2B, SS, CF), excellent defense at 3B with Feliz, and acceptable D in RF. LF and 1B are holes. Either way, I'm not certain how much better the Phils D up the middle is than other teams. TB has excellent up the middle D, which is part of how they were able to turn around so well. At the end of the day, pitchers are paid to get guys out by whatever legal means they have available. The Phillies in 2008 let in the third fewest runs and had the best bullpen ERA by far in the majors. Defense helps, but over 162 games, the statistics are pretty telling. Your argument might be based on K rate, WHIP, etc, but ERA is a pretty damn solid indicator of success over those innings. I don't think your argument carries that much weight.

[twista6002]

Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins alone take off 30 runs. I don't care about that other stuff you said that is either off topic or already has been rebutted.

Yes you are bitter.

If 2 guys take off 30 runs, then how many runs does an awful left fielder like Burrell put on?

[twista6002]

Yet he had more opportunities with guys in scoring position, and Safeco is very friendly to left handed hitters. It blows for righties though.

Opportunities don't mean jack if there's a .100 descrepency in your average with guys on.

[bsaza2358]

Yes you are bitter.

If 2 guys take off 30 runs, then how many runs does an awful left fielder like Burrell put on?

Per the Bill James +/- numbers for fielders, Utley and Rollins combined for +70 and Burrell was a -20. Net = +50 for the Phils at those 3 positions.

[Tampa 2 4 life]

I would say that the Phillies have excellent defense in key areas (C, 2B, SS, CF), excellent defense at 3B with Feliz, and acceptable D in RF. LF and 1B are holes. Either way, I'm not certain how much better the Phils D up the middle is than other teams. TB has excellent up the middle D, which is part of how they were able to turn around so well. At the end of the day, pitchers are paid to get guys out by whatever legal means they have available. The Phillies in 2008 let in the third fewest runs and had the best bullpen ERA by far in the majors. Defense helps, but over 162 games, the statistics are pretty telling. Your argument might be based on K rate, WHIP, etc, but ERA is a pretty damn solid indicator of success over those innings. I don't think your argument carries that much weight.

Jason Bartlett wasn't supergreat, Aki was average, but I digress.

I like how your argument pretty much is, "Facts aside, using the worst possible way of measuring, we were pretty good."

[twista6002]

I am saying that the phillies are mediocre pitching and great fielding, End of story. By the way, pitching to contact is only good if you're getting ground balls.

Then if pitching to contact is only good for ground balls, and you're implying the Phils pitchers give up fly balls like I think you are, then I'd say Rollins and Utley are a little more irrelevant then you say because an outfielder, a la the worst defensive left fielder in the game, has fly ball responsibilites, and would surely be more influential in runs scored and such. If the Phils pitchers didn't get ground balls as many ground balls as you feel they didn't, then Rollins and Utley are almost moot.

[iowatreat54]

Wait, I'm confused. Since when have the Phils had this world renown reputation for being the most clutch team of all time? They won one WS and all of a sudden they win every big game in every situation ever.

I mean, I understand, the Phillies are good, definitely a top 3 team in the NL right now. But how can you prove that last year wasn't a fluke. They've made the postseason twice in 5 years, winning the WS just last year. How have they proven to win big games? I could say the Cardinals are more proven, since they have made the playoffs more and won just as many WS as the Phils recently.

[twista6002]

David Eckstein and Derek jeter are the best players ever!!!!!!!!! ^_^

Also, I don't give a **** about Batting Average.

Well, if you don't, then you're in no position to differentiate or contrast Blanton and Jackson.

[D-Unit]

So funny... on the day A-rod admits to steroids... we talked about it for about 3 posts before moving on.

With Bonds and Clemens not admitting, we probably have at least 30 pages of discussion... and could easily have 30 more if we wanted to talk about it.

[Brodeur]

Opportunities don't mean jack if there's a .100 descrepency in your average with guys on.

When you pick a meaningless stat like batting average, sure why not. Small sample sizes don't prove a thing.

[Tampa 2 4 life]

Per the Bill James +/- numbers for fielders, Utley and Rollins combined for +70 and Burrell was a -20. Net = +50 for the Phils at those 3 positions.

I don't think you realize how plus minus works and why you can't convert it to runs...

[bsaza2358]

Jason Bartlett wasn't supergreat, Aki was average, but I digress.

I like how your argument pretty much is, "Facts aside, using the worst possible way of measuring, we were pretty good."

What are you talking about? ERA is the ultimate measure of the quality of a team's pitching. If you don't allow runs, you stand a better chance of winning than if you don't. There is some luck either way with fair/foul, hitters missing bad mistakes, etc. At the same time, over 162 games, all that balances out. Third fewest runs allowed, #1 in bullpen ERA. How can you possibly argue against real results on the field?

I'm not saying the Phillies are the best. I'm saying they are a capable staff with an ace and a closer. How hard is it to admit that they performed well as a group in 2008 and could do the same in the future? You can even say they overperformed in 2008. Just admit that they pitched well as a group.

[ATLDirtyBirds]

Opportunities don't mean jack if there's a .100 descrepency in your average with guys on.


I'm going to have to ask you to stop talking or leave. ASAP preferably. Thanks so much.

[bsaza2358]

I don't think you realize how plus minus works and why you can't convert it to runs...

I'd be happy for an explanation.

[Tampa 2 4 life]

Then if pitching to contact is only good for ground balls, and you're implying the Phils pitchers give up fly balls like I think you are, then I'd say Rollins and Utley are a little more irrelevant then you say because an outfielder, a la the worst defensive left fielder in the game, has fly ball responsibilites, and would surely be more influential in runs scored and such. If the Phils pitchers didn't get ground balls as many ground balls as you feel they didn't, then Rollins and Utley are almost moot.

According to the amount of plays they made, they were 30 runs better than a replacement player. I don't know how to make it clearer than that.

[Tampa 2 4 life]

Well, if you don't, then you're in no position to differentiate or contrast Blanton and Jackson.

BAA is seriously probably the worst way to evaluate pitchers.

[bsaza2358]

Okay, with 1500+ innings pitched, what effect on ERA does 30 runs have? Simple math = 0.02. The Phillies had a team ERA of 3.88 with their current players, good for 6th in the MLB. Even with replacement defenders, the Phils had a team ERA of 3.90, good for .08 better than Arizona.

Next argument?

[twista6002]

Wait, I'm confused. Since when have the Phils had this world renown reputation for being the most clutch team of all time? They won one WS and all of a sudden they win every big game in every situation ever.

I mean, I understand, the Phillies are good, definitely a top 3 team in the NL right now. But how can you prove that last year wasn't a fluke. They've made the postseason twice in 5 years, winning the WS just last year. How have they proven to win big games? I could say the Cardinals are more proven, since they have made the playoffs more and won just as many WS as the Phils recently.

The Phillies won the world series. Convincingly. They did it while making outs when they needed and getting big hits when they needed. And I never said anything about a larger context, right now I don't think it's unreasonable to say the Phillies are the most clutch team in baseball. And how can I prove last year wasn't a fluke? Do we need to move to the Bronx and get purchased by an old senile narcisist? We won every series in the playoffs convincingly. Milwaukee wasn't close, Dodgers weren't close, Rays weren't close. We came we saw we conquered. I don't understand how it's so unreasonable to perhaps think this team is the best in the NL, if not baseball.

[twista6002]

BAA is seriously probably the worst way to evaluate pitchers.

Well, all I know is when Blanton is on the mound we win, and he gives up hits less often then other pitchers as the season goes on and as the game progresses. To even say Edwin Jackson can hold his jock is borderline trolling.

[Tampa 2 4 life]

I'd be happy for an explanation.

A player gets credit (a "plus" number) if he makes a play that at least one other player at his position missed during the season, and he loses credit (a "minus" number) if he misses a play that at least one player made. The size of the credit is directly related to how often players make the play. Each play is looked at individually, and a score is given for each play. Sum up all the plays for each player at his position and you get his total plus/minus for the season. A total plus/minus score near zero means the player is average. A score above zero is above average and a negative score is below average. Adam Everett turned in the highest score we’ve had in four years of using the system with a +43 at shortstop in 2006. That means he made 43 more plays than the average MLB shortstop would make.



A: First of all, that is an incredibly vague and subjective way of measuring.
B: 43 plays does not equal 43 runs.

[bsaza2358]

A player gets credit (a "plus" number) if he makes a play that at least one other player at his position missed during the season, and he loses credit (a "minus" number) if he misses a play that at least one player made. The size of the credit is directly related to how often players make the play. Each play is looked at individually, and a score is given for each play. Sum up all the plays for each player at his position and you get his total plus/minus for the season. A total plus/minus score near zero means the player is average. A score above zero is above average and a negative score is below average. Adam Everett turned in the highest score we’ve had in four years of using the system with a +43 at shortstop in 2006. That means he made 43 more plays than the average MLB shortstop would make.



A: First of all, that is an incredibly vague and subjective way of measuring.
B: 43 plays does not equal 43 runs.

Appreciate it. How do you get the 30 runs? Did you use VORP or a defensive component of VORP? Even then, defensive rankings are based on plenty of subjective findings.

[twista6002]

According to the amount of plays they made, they were 30 runs better than a replacement player. I don't know how to make it clearer than that.

30 runs in 162, 9-inning games is nothing.

[Tampa 2 4 life]

Okay, with 1500+ innings pitched, what effect on ERA does 30 runs have? Simple math = 0.02. The Phillies had a team ERA of 3.88 with their current players, good for 6th in the MLB. Even with replacement defenders, the Phils had a team ERA of 3.90, good for .08 better than Arizona.

Next argument?

You can't do what you just did, because it doesn't take into account men on base, walks, errors, or anything. You can't fit a round peg in a square hole.

[Tampa 2 4 life]

Appreciate it. How do you get the 30 runs? Did you use VORP or a defensive component of VORP? Even then, defensive rankings are based on plenty of subjective findings.

UZR: Basically, similar to Plus/Minus except using clearly defined zones and balancing for position/park/etc.

[bsaza2358]

Okay, so you say because JRoll and Utley were 30 runs better than replacement, the Phillies pitching staff wasn't good. 30 runs = .02 ERA based on 1500 innings in 1 season. That is fact. How can you just make the statement, then refuse to hear any practical application of your assessment?

[Tampa 2 4 life]

30 runs in 162, 9-inning games is nothing.

See my reply to the bsaza post.

[iowatreat54]

The Phillies won the world series. Convincingly. They did it while making outs when they needed and getting big hits when they needed. And I never said anything about a larger context, right now I don't think it's unreasonable to say the Phillies are the most clutch team in baseball. And how can I prove last year wasn't a fluke? Do we need to move to the Bronx and get purchased by an old senile narcisist? We won every series in the playoffs convincingly. Milwaukee wasn't close, Dodgers weren't close, Rays weren't close. We came we saw we conquered. I don't understand how it's so unreasonable to perhaps think this team is the best in the NL, if not baseball.

They had a phenomenal postseason, and are one of the top teams in the league, that is without question. However, you can't use last year as proof that last year wasn't a fluke. They have now had 1 year where they made the playoffs and were swept first round, and another year where they made the playoffs and won 3 series convincingly. Tell me, other than one being more recent, how can you prove which season was the fluke?

[twista6002]

See my reply to the bsaza post.


So some run totals may vary but it's still a tiny amount and has very little influence on a pitcher's ERA. The Phils have one of the better pitching staffs in baseball quit being so bitter.

[bsaza2358]

If you're estimating a 30 run differential between the Phils' SS and 2B vs. replacement, yet with the players in place, the team had the 6th best ERA in the league and the third fewest runs allowed, plus the best bullpen ERA. Sure, without those 2 guys, the Phillies are worse off defensively and would likely have a higher ERA. But how much higher that you can claim they're terrible?

[Tampa 2 4 life]

Okay, so you say because JRoll and Utley were 30 runs better than replacement, the Phillies pitching staff wasn't good. 30 runs = .02 ERA based on 1500 innings in 1 season. That is fact. How can you just make the statement, then refuse to hear any practical application of your assessment?

Because those 30 runs are not according to earned runs. Lets have a scenario:

David Eckstein is playing 2B, and Derek Jeter is at SS. Bases Loaded. 2 Outs.

Groundball to ss, jeter bobbles it, but he like gets it back and tosses it off the base to eckstein, who like throws it wildly to cf because he's drunk or something. all 4 runs score, but their would be 0 ER. But obviously, the fielders deserve blame for it.

[Tampa 2 4 life]

So some run totals may vary but it's still a tiny amount and has very little influence on a pitcher's ERA. The Phils have one of the better pitching staffs in baseball quit being so bitter.

See above, and haha, no they don't.

[bored of education]

Because those 30 runs are not according to earned runs. Lets have a scenario:

David Eckstein is playing 2B, and Derek Jeter is at SS. Bases Loaded. 2 Outs.

Groundball to ss, jeter bobbles it, but he like gets it back and tosses it off the base to eckstein, who like throws it wildly to cf because he's drunk or something. all 4 runs score, but their would be 0 ER. But obviously, the fielders deserve blame for it.

so that 30 runs is more a of a knock on the fielders than the pitchers..is that what you are saying? or i should say could be mroe of a knock on the fielders. its all relative to the situation at hand etc

[bsaza2358]

Okay, so how does the fact that Rollins and Utley are above average defensively mean specifically that the Phillies' pitchers as a group are "slightly above terrible"? What measure are you using to determine that?

[twista6002]

They had a phenomenal postseason, and are one of the top teams in the league, that is without question. However, you can't use last year as proof that last year wasn't a fluke. They have now had 1 year where they made the playoffs and were swept first round, and another year where they made the playoffs and won 3 series convincingly. Tell me, other than one being more recent, how can you prove which season was the fluke?

Baseball is a 162 game season and 10 games minumum for those who make it to the world series. Teams don't just catch lightning in a bottle or get good out of the blue to the point they win the world series and dominate September two years in a row. A team's character is evidenced by how it finishes. And the last 2 Septembers the Phils have dominated. The Rays and the Rockies of 2007 would be an exception except they didn't finish what they started and crashed and burned, proving they weren't that good to begin with. The Rays could very well be this year's Phillies, but on the same token they could be this year's Rockies. Until blatantly proven otherwise, there is no way the Phils aren't the best team in baseball.

[Brodeur]

So some run totals may vary but it's still a tiny amount and has very little influence on a pitcher's ERA. The Phils have one of the better pitching staffs in baseball quit being so bitter.

Better pitching staffs than the Phillies:
Rays
Red Sox
Yankees
Blue Jays
Twins
Angels
Mets
Braves
Cubs
Dodgers
Giants
D'Backs

That would be at least 12 of 30.

[twista6002]

So in the end how much will this vary a team's ERA? Dude, get over it

[Tampa 2 4 life]

If you're estimating a 30 run differential between the Phils' SS and 2B vs. replacement, yet with the players in place, the team had the 6th best ERA in the league and the third fewest runs allowed, plus the best bullpen ERA. Sure, without those 2 guys, the Phillies are worse off defensively and would likely have a higher ERA. But how much higher that you can claim they're terrible?

See the difference between the fielders and the ERA of the 2003 Seattle Mariners to the 2004 Seattle Mariners. They went from Carlos Guillen to Rich Aurillia at SS, Winn/Cameron/Suzuki to Ibanez/Winn/Suzuki, and very little change in the pitching staff. Using your own stats, they went from an ERA+ of 103 to 95.

[twista6002]

Better pitching staffs than the Phillies:
Rays
Red Sox
Yankees
Blue Jays
Twins
Angels
Mets
Braves
Cubs
Dodgers
Giants
D'Backs

That would be at least 12 of 30.

So we're better than average, I was under the impression we had a terrible staff :rolleyes:

How many of those teams play in hitter friendly parks?

And I'd love to hear how the Mets have a better staff than the Phils.

[bsaza2358]

Better pitching staffs than the Phillies:
Rays--agreed
Red Sox--agreed
Yankees--on paper agreed
Blue Jays--debatable IMO
Twins--I'm not totally on board, but we can discuss
Angels--Probably
Mets--Maybe on paper, but I'm not that keen.
Braves--Nope.
Cubs--Absolutely
Dodgers--Likely
Giants--Debatable, but probably skewed based on their overall performance as a team.
D'Backs--Perhaps their starters, but the bullpen far below.

I'm a Phillies fan, and I agree with you on 8 of the 12, with 1 strong disagreement and 3 maybes. I'm not saying they're world-beaters. Even putting them at #13 means they aren't "terrible". Also note that with their offense (assuming full health), they don't need to have the best pitching staff to win 90+ games and make the playoffs.

[twista6002]

See the difference between the fielders and the ERA of the 2003 Seattle Mariners to the 2004 Seattle Mariners. They went from Carlos Guillen to Rich Aurillia at SS, Winn/Cameron/Suzuki to Ibanez/Winn/Suzuki, and very little change in the pitching staff. Using your own stats, they went from an ERA+ of 103 to 95.


a .008 difference? all this fuss for a .008 difference

[Tampa 2 4 life]

So we're better than average, I was under the impression we had a terrible staff :rolleyes:

How many of those teams play in hitter friendly parks?

And I'd love to hear how the Mets have a better staff than the Phils.

I said mediocre.

Also, are you kidding me?

Johan is equal if not better than cole, Pelfrey and Maine are better than anything else you have.

[Tampa 2 4 life]

a .008 difference? all this fuss for a .008 difference

It's not .008 you bloody moron, 100 is average, 95 is 5% below aberage, 105 is 5% below. THAT IS AN 8% DROP.

[bsaza2358]

See the difference between the fielders and the ERA of the 2003 Seattle Mariners to the 2004 Seattle Mariners. They went from Carlos Guillen to Rich Aurillia at SS, Winn/Cameron/Suzuki to Ibanez/Winn/Suzuki, and very little change in the pitching staff. Using your own stats, they went from an ERA+ of 103 to 95.

In the end, the Phillies have a very strong team top to bottom, which is why they've won the last 2 NL East Crowns and won the World Series. I freely admit that they don't have the best staff in the MLB, but I'm happy with what they are and with other players coming up who could contribute (particularly Carrasco). Surely the team could improve, but no team is perfect.

[twista6002]

I said mediocre.

Also, are you kidding me?

Johan is equal if not better than cole, Pelfrey and Maine are better than anything else you have.

I sense more bitterness. Pelfrey isn't bad but I'd rather have Myers and I'd rather have Blanton than Maine.

[bsaza2358]

I said mediocre.

Also, are you kidding me?

Johan is equal if not better than cole, Pelfrey and Maine are better than anything else you have.

The Mets have a nice 1-2-3, and I am a fan of Perez at #4. Their starters on paper are better. I give the Phils a significant edge in middle relief, which I think offsets the SP's, and I'd have to call KRod vs. Lidge a wash. It would probably come down to defense, and I also think that is pretty close.

[twista6002]

It's not .008 you bloody moron, 100 is average, 95 is 5% below aberage, 105 is 5% below. THAT IS AN 8% DROP.


So if a team's ERA is 4.00 what would it be with Utley and Rollins?

[bsaza2358]

I sense more bitterness. Pelfrey isn't bad but I'd rather have Myers and I'd rather have Blanton than Maine.

I'm a Phils fan, and I'd rather have the Mets 1-4 than the Phillies. Period.

[Brodeur]

I'm a Phillies fan, and I agree with you on 8 of the 12, with 1 strong disagreement and 3 maybes. I'm not saying they're world-beaters. Even putting them at #13 means they aren't "terrible". Also note that with their offense (assuming full health), they don't need to have the best pitching staff to win 90+ games and make the playoffs.

Nope on the Braves?

Lowe < Hamels (although it is much closer than some think)
Jurrjens > Myers
Vazquez > Blanton
Kawakami = Moyer (bah, I think Kawakami will be better this year but not exactly proven so)
Whoever the hell the Braves throw out there for the 5th day/Hudson if he comes back this year > same for Phillies

[Tampa 2 4 life]

So if a team's ERA is 4.00 what would it be with Utley and Rollins?

If they went from replacement level, it would be 3.68.

[M.O.T.H.]

5th guy will be Tommy Glavine or Tommy Hanson.

Of course, Reyes and Morton have their shots but, blah. Most likely Glavine if he signs. If it was Reyes, I'd give Kendrick the nod. HA.

[twista6002]

I'm a Phils fan, and I'd rather have the Mets 1-4 than the Phillies. Period.

It's understandable to want Santana over Hamels, but if Myers is like he was after his demotion next year, he'll be good enough to be a #1 for some teams. And like most Phillies, he gets better as the season and game goes on, polar opposite of the Mets. Same with Blanton and Maine. I basically want pitchers that are going to win me a game when the team needs it not lose.

[awfullyquiet]

They had a phenomenal postseason, and are one of the top teams in the league, that is without question. However, you can't use last year as proof that last year wasn't a fluke. They have now had 1 year where they made the playoffs and were swept first round, and another year where they made the playoffs and won 3 series convincingly. Tell me, other than one being more recent, how can you prove which season was the fluke?

if the mets didn't know what collapse was. we wouldn't have this conversation right now.

and then we'd say, hey, this was a fluke. and really? it probably is. the phils did the right thing at the right time and won the WS. the cards did it a few years ago. and that was a fluke. just ask yoda or BB if he ever gets unbanned.

simply stated. the team is about as good as last year. which is still third. fourth banana in the league. i'd say right now... the yankees, bosox, and cubs are all better, more complete teams...

[bsaza2358]

Nope on the Braves?

Lowe < Hamels (although it is much closer than some think)
Jurrjens > Myers
Vazquez > Blanton
Kawakami = Moyer (bah, I think Kawakami will be better this year but not exactly proven so)
Whoever the hell the Braves throw out there for the 5th day/Hudson if he comes back this year > same for Phillies

I had totally forgotten about Javy Vasquez. That changes everything. I give.

[bsaza2358]

It's understandable to want Santana over Hamels, but if Myers is like he was after his demotion next year, he'll be good enough to be a #1 for some teams. And like most Phillies, he gets better as the season and game goes on, polar opposite of the Mets. Same with Blanton and Maine. I basically want pitchers that are going to win me a game when the team needs it not lose.

Pelfrey had a better 2007 and 2008 than Myers as a starter. Period. Maine has a stronger skill set. If he had Dubee coaching him, I'd give him an edge over Blanton in CB Park. It's not even close really.

[awfullyquiet]

I had totally forgotten about Javy Vasquez. That changes everything. I give.

at least javy doesn't suffer from jose contreras syndrome.

[Brodeur]

at least javy doesn't suffer from jose contreras syndrome.

Being really old?

[twista6002]

If they went from replacement level, it would be 3.68.

But that's assuming the 4.00 was with the worst infielders. See there's too many variables in this. The fact of the matter is those of us who actually watch the Phillies know Myers, Blanton, Moyer are all quality pitchers. Happ should be up there too. Other fans who act like they've watched the Phillies try to ration our team's accomplishments, most likely out of bitterness of losing the divsion to us or the world series. We couldn't have even gotten where we were if we only had mediocre pitching. It's impossible. How many world series champs have had mediocre pitching staffs? In all seriousness I don't think you or Brodeur have watched more than a dozen Phillies games so I guess I can't knock you.

[twista6002]

Pelfrey had a better 2007 and 2008 than Myers as a starter. Period. Maine has a stronger skill set. If he had Dubee coaching him, I'd give him an edge over Blanton in CB Park. It's not even close really.

Yea but Myers has better stuff than Pelfrey and he pitched like a man on fire after the demotion. People don't remember that. He even carried it through the postseason. If Myers even pitches close to that this year, there's no way in hell Pelfrey is better. And Blanton is much more of a reliable clutch pitcher than Maine. In a broad spectrum he might not look as good, but if you want to win a game in September, I'd much rather go Blanton.

[D-Unit]

You guys are talking nonsense... Don't you know the only meaningful baseball stat is their Overall ESPN Fantasy Rankings?

Sheesh.. I swear sometimes... people just don't get it.

[iowatreat54]

Baseball is a 162 game season and 10 games minumum for those who make it to the world series. Teams don't just catch lightning in a bottle or get good out of the blue to the point they win the world series and dominate September two years in a row. A team's character is evidenced by how it finishes. And the last 2 Septembers the Phils have dominated. The Rays and the Rockies of 2007 would be an exception except they didn't finish what they started and crashed and burned, proving they weren't that good to begin with. The Rays could very well be this year's Phillies, but on the same token they could be this year's Rockies. Until blatantly proven otherwise, there is no way the Phils aren't the best team in baseball.

So, essentially, because the Phils won the WS last year, they are the best team in baseball for 09? That's pretty much your argument, because the last 2 years the Phillies were no more dominant than the Cubs or Dodgers in September, so that point is irrelevant.

[bsaza2358]

Yea but Myers has better stuff than Pelfrey and he pitched like a man on fire after the demotion. People don't remember that. He even carried it through the postseason. If Myers even pitches close to that this year, there's no way in hell Pelfrey is better. And Blanton is much more of a reliable clutch pitcher than Maine. In a broad spectrum he might not look as good, but if you want to win a game in September, I'd much rather go Blanton.

You didn't ask me who I'd want on the mound in a need to win game in September/October. I'll take the guys that have already shown up and won... I think Pelfrey will be better than Myers this year, and I'd probably take Maine over Blanton over the entire season as well.

[holt_bruce81]

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/32EA0199DADBAD4E86257558006575D7?OpenDocument

JUPITER, Fla. -- The Cardinals have abruptly reversed course, releasing second baseman Adam Kennedy and declaring an open competition for the position, the Post-Dispatch has learned.

The move, apparently made at the strong urging of manager Tony La Russa, represents a 180-degree shift from the position staked out by the club in December after failing to find a trade partner for the veteran second baseman.

Love the news!

[bsaza2358]

So, essentially, because the Phils won the WS last year, they are the best team in baseball for 09? That's pretty much your argument, because the last 2 years the Phillies were no more dominant than the Cubs or Dodgers in September, so that point is irrelevant.

I'll say that the Phillies were the best start-to-finish team in baseball in 2008, and they are a contender to win again in 2009 if they have similar luck and unity that helped them get there in the first place.

[M.O.T.H.]

I'm kind of surprised that the Kelly Johnson for "insert Cardinals Outfielder here" proposals havent resurfaced.

The Kelly to left field talks have since been silenced as well.

[Brodeur]

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/32EA0199DADBAD4E86257558006575D7?OpenDocument



Love the news!

Kennedy's a great defensive second baseman, not exactly great news considering the value he brings with that.

[bsaza2358]

I'm surprised it wasn't a done deal during the winter meetings...

[Brodeur]

I'm kind of surprised that the Kelly Johnson for "insert Cardinals Outfielder here" proposals havent resurfaced.

The Kelly to left field talks have since been erased as well.

I think the Braves should try to trade for Marlon Byrd and then sign Adam Dunn when it finally winds down. Just some suggestions.

[bsaza2358]

Where is Dunn going to play? LF when they have Jones and Diaz? 1B instead of Kotchman? I don't think so...

[M.O.T.H.]

I think the Braves should try to trade for Marlon Byrd and then sign Adam Dunn when it finally winds down. Just some suggestions.

Why Marlon Byrd?

I'm fairly confident that Schafer or Anderson will do a good job in center this year.

Big question is...will Schafer lead off if he is the center fielder? Anderson surely would but, it's up in the air w/ Schafer...I wouldnt call him an ideal leadoff hitter, he can certainly do it, like a Steve Finley you can probably hit him anywhere. Not really, the leadoff hitter Bobby has been seeking, though. Hence, why we went after Furcal.

[Brodeur]

Where is Dunn going to play? LF when they have Jones and Diaz? 1B instead of Kotchman? I don't think so...

Jones is clearly not ready to be a full time major leaguer and Diaz certainly shouldn't get in the way of signing Dunn. Sign Dunn and trade for Byrd, and run with:

LF: Adam Dunn
CF: Marlon Byrd
RF: SuckCouer/Jones/Diaz/who the hell cares

[M.O.T.H.]

Where is Dunn going to play? LF when they have Jones and Diaz? 1B instead of Kotchman? I don't think so...

They were interested in Dunn...and they would have surely handed him that LF position. He was just asking for too much and given his defense, they didnt want to invest that much into him. You're right that if we went into the season today, we'd have a Diaz/Jones platoon but, the Braves are still actively looking for a power hitter to play every day in left. Nady and Swisher are still believed to be on their radar.

[bsaza2358]

I like the Byrd signing because of cost/benefit, but I don't see the Braves investing that much to bring Dunn in. I would think the Angels or Dodgers would be a stronger grab for them. Adding Dunn would be the Braves expecting to win with their current lineup. I'm not sure they believe that they can.

[bsaza2358]

They were interested in Dunn...and they would have surely handed him that LF position. He was just asking for too much and given his defense, they didnt want to invest that much into him. You're right that if we went into the season today, we'd have a Diaz/Jones platoon but, the Braves are still actively looking for a power hitter to play every day in left. Nady and Swisher are still believed to be on there radar.

I'd rather have either than Dunn based on cost/benefit. At the same time, I'd be comfortable rolling as is if I were the Braves. That's just me.

[Brodeur]

I like the Byrd signing because of cost/benefit, but I don't see the Braves investing that much to bring Dunn in. I would think the Angels or Dodgers would be a stronger grab for them. Adding Dunn would be the Braves expecting to win with their current lineup. I'm not sure they believe that they can.

Byrd's on Texas right now and because they are so clotted with outfielders, he would be pretty cheap. And Byrd is a good defender and solid hitter for cheap.

[bsaza2358]

I meant acquisition. If the Rangers want to roll with Andruw Jones in CF and move Hamilton to RF, Byrd isn't worth a roster spot to them as a LF. I'm sure he could be had for a pitching prospect of some sort, maybe even Brandon Jones and other prospects...

[M.O.T.H.]

The Braves arent looking for a center fielder. Anderson or Schafer will be manning the position....or Gregor Blanco but, Gregor isnt all that good, really. So, it'll be Anderson or Schafer.

[Brodeur]

The Braves arent looking for a center fielder. Anderson or Schafer will be manning the position....or Gregor Blanco but, Gregor isnt all that good, really. So, it'll be Anderson or Schafer.

Byrd would still be an upgrade at right.

[mqtirishfan]

I would be totally for getting both Byrd and Dunn, because a defender like Byrd would take some of the pain of Dunn in Left away.

[M.O.T.H.]

Byrd would still be an upgrade at right.

Who isnt? haha.

Frenchy is here to stay sadly.

[M.O.T.H.]

I would be totally for getting both Byrd and Dunn, because a defender like Byrd would take some of the pain of Dunn in Left away.

Schafer would do the same.

[twista6002]

if the mets didn't know what collapse was. we wouldn't have this conversation right now.

and then we'd say, hey, this was a fluke. and really? it probably is. the phils did the right thing at the right time and won the WS. the cards did it a few years ago. and that was a fluke. just ask yoda or BB if he ever gets unbanned.

simply stated. the team is about as good as last year. which is still third. fourth banana in the league. i'd say right now... the yankees, bosox, and cubs are all better, more complete teams...

Maybe on paper, but we know games aren't played on paper. The Phils won the title, convincingly to say the least. What would they have to do for people to give them credit, morph into a giant taco that poops ice cream?

[Brodeur]

Maybe on paper, but we know games aren't played on paper. The Phils won the title, convincingly to say the least. What would they have to do for people to give them credit, morph into a giant taco that poops ice cream?

I give them credit for being the best team in the playoffs last season, that's plenty of enough from me. I just do not believe they are the best team in the MLB or NL or NL East this year.

[Turtlepower]

Maybe on paper, but we know games aren't played on paper. The Phils won the title, convincingly to say the least. What would they have to do for people to give them credit, morph into a giant taco that poops ice cream?

Since the Angels won the World Series in 2002, only the 05 and 08 Red Sox made the postseason after winning a world series. Just one of the many reasons why people don't see the Phillies making another title run.

[D-Unit]

I love Marlon Byrd. Was a little afraid he wasn't going to get re-signed. He's just one of those unsung players who go out, do the dirty work, fit in with the ballclub and not be a major liability. The great thing about him is he can produce consistent numbers without consistent play. He's always in and out of the line up... at least it seemed that way.

There's not much pressure at all on Andruw Jones to come in and be talked about as the starting CF. If he happens to be ready for the majors at some point in the season, then Josh Hamilton will probably move to RF. The thought has already been discussed on the Rangers team site.

I'm really anxious to see if Nelson Cruz can actually be a good major league force.

David Murphy is an underrated player. I like him because he doesn't create waves and fights hard for playing time.

[Tampa 2 4 life]

Detroit Tigers
Signed: RHP Ruddy Lugo


The Detroit Tigers: Trying to be the 2007 Devil Rays since the Casey Fossum signing.

[yodapoop]

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/32EA0199DADBAD4E86257558006575D7?OpenDocument



Love the news!

On top of that, it looks like Braden Looper is gonna go to a division rival! WOO-HOO!

[Giantsfan1080]

Yea but Myers has better stuff than Pelfrey and he pitched like a man on fire after the demotion. People don't remember that. He even carried it through the postseason. If Myers even pitches close to that this year, there's no way in hell Pelfrey is better. And Blanton is much more of a reliable clutch pitcher than Maine. In a broad spectrum he might not look as good, but if you want to win a game in September, I'd much rather go Blanton.

Go look at Maine's last pitched game in 2007 against the Marlins when we needed a W big time. He almost threw a no hitter. Also go back to the 2006 playoffs and Maine who didn't even know he was going to pitch as a SP in the playoffs threw 3 pretty good games. Game 6 NLCS if we didn't win we were going to be eliminated and Maine came through big time. To say he isn't a clutch pitcher is nonsense, that your making up.

[twista6002]

Go look at Maine's last pitched game in 2007 against the Marlins when we needed a W big time. He almost threw a no hitter. Also go back to the 2006 playoffs and Maine who didn't even know he was going to pitch as a SP in the playoffs threw 3 pretty good games. Game 6 NLCS if we didn't win we were going to be eliminated and Maine came through big time. To say he isn't a clutch pitcher is nonsense, that your making up.

And that one start was his only good one in September. Despite that game, he posted a 5.93 ERA in September. If not for that game, his September ERA would have been 8.24 :eek: And as for his 2006 postseason, he wasn't bad but Blanton was arguably just as effective in the 2008 postseason.

While not perfect, Blanton is a lot more reliable in September. When he's on Maine is excellent, but you never know what you're going to get. Blanton is the opposite, when he's on, he might be just above average, but he'll be the same pitcher the majority if not all of his starts.

[twista6002]

Since the Angels won the World Series in 2002, only the 05 and 08 Red Sox made the postseason after winning a world series. Just one of the many reasons why people don't see the Phillies making another title run.

Manuel might be a better manager then any of the WS winning teams since 2002 besides Francona and LaRusa. Teams like the 04 Marlins lost a ton of their players, the 2006 White Sox lost one of their best players, not to mention their heart and soul in Aaron Rowand, and the Cardinals best pitcher was hurt throughout all of 2007. The Phillies only somewhat significant loss is Burrell and we upgraded in his spot, and it looks like Utley will only be out until June and Romero is only gone for less than 1/3 of the season. Forgive me for being so cocky but you have to be a Philly hater to say this team shouldn't be favored to win it again.

[scottyboy]

Manuel might be a better manager then any of the WS winning teams since 2002 besides Francona and LaRusa. Teams like the 04 Marlins lost a ton of their players, the 2006 White Sox lost one of their best players, not to mention their heart and soul in Aaron Rowand, and the Cardinals best pitcher was hurt throughout all of 2007. The Phillies only somewhat significant loss is Burrell and we upgraded in his spot, and it looks like Utley will only be out until June and Romero is only gone for less than 1/3 of the season. Forgive me for being so cocky but you have to be a Philly hater to say this team shouldn't be favored to win it again.

they shouldn't. they got slightly worse, other teams got better. end of discussion

[twista6002]

I give them credit for being the best team in the playoffs last season, that's plenty of enough from me. I just do not believe they are the best team in the MLB or NL or NL East this year.

I've been hearing that about the Mets for two years now. If Santana can't get them over the hump I don't think baseball's most flamboyant choke artist has a chance. Sorry, but you're a

http://i63.photobucket.com/albums/h145/Twista6002/simp2006_HomerArmsCrossed_f.jpg

[twista6002]

they shouldn't. they got slightly worse, other teams got better. end of discussion

How did they get worse? They lost Burrell. The argument has been squashed.

NEXT!

[Brodeur]

Manuel might be a better manager then any of the WS winning teams since 2002 besides Francona and LaRusa. Teams like the 04 Marlins lost a ton of their players, the 2006 White Sox lost one of their best players, not to mention their heart and soul in Aaron Rowand, and the Cardinals best pitcher was hurt throughout all of 2007. The Phillies only somewhat significant loss is Burrell and we upgraded in his spot, and it looks like Utley will only be out until June and Romero is only gone for less than 1/3 of the season. Forgive me for being so cocky but you have to be a Philly hater to say this team shouldn't be favored to win it again.

Heart and soul in Aaron Rowand? Are you Jay Mariotti or something?

[scottyboy]

How did they get worse? They lost Burrell. The argument has been squashed.

NEXT!

replaced with Raul Ibanez. Ibanez. The guy the Mariners didn't freaking want, and look at their outfield. grossness. Ibanez is trash, just god awful.

Plus, after Sexy Cole, your staff is mediocre. Other teams got better, and improved over the Phils, it's as simple as that.

[iowatreat54]

Aaron Rowand was not the heart and soul of the 05-06 White Sox. He was a fan favorite, but Konerko, Dye, and the whole pitching staff meant a lot more to that team than Rowand.

Why do you have to be a hater? I actually like the Phillies, but they are not cut and dry the best team in the NL, let alone the MLB, just because they are defending champions. I mean, even as of last week, Vegas has the Yankees (5/2), Red Sox (15/2), Cubs (7/1), and Mets (7/1) as more favored to win the WS than the Phillies (11/1). Is that because they are Phillies haters as well?

[twista6002]

replaced with Raul Ibanez. Ibanez. The guy the Mariners didn't freaking want, and look at their outfield. grossness. Ibanez is trash, just god awful.

Plus, after Sexy Cole, your staff is mediocre. Other teams got better, and improved over the Phils, it's as simple as that.

Oh lord I'm not explaining this again, go back and read the last 8 or 9 pages. Saying Ibanez is worse than Burrell is borderline trolling. Mets fan I'm guessing?

[Giantsfan1080]

And that one start was his only good one in September. Despite that game, he posted a 5.93 ERA in September. If not for that game, his September ERA would have been 8.24 :eek: And as for his 2006 postseason, he wasn't bad but Blanton was arguably just as effective in the 2008 postseason.

While not perfect, Blanton is a lot more reliable in September. When he's on Maine is excellent, but you never know what you're going to get. Blanton is the opposite, when he's on, he might be just above average, but he'll be the same pitcher the majority if not all of his starts.

He had 3 very good starts and 2 terrible starts in 2007 in Sept. We didn't lose because of him. In 2006 he was a rookie and did very well in the playoffs considering everything. Last year he had a huge bone spur in his shoulder(one of the biggest Dr. Andrews ever took out) and still posted decent number because of his toughness. I'll guarantee you Maine has a better year than Blanton in 2009.

[scottyboy]

Oh lord I'm not explaining this again, go back and read the last 8 or 9 pages. Saying Ibanez is worse than Burrell is borderline trolling. Mets fan I'm guessing?

hahahahha fail. not even close to a Mets fan. I'm actually a disgruntled Yankees fan who is pissed at the Yankees for signing Tex and pretty much Burnett. In baseball, I'm only a homer for Posada, Mo, and Robby Cano. that's it. so i'm totally unbiased for once. And seeing plenty of Phils game on local channels and Ibanez playing the Yankees, I can say Burrell is better overall than Ibanez. Although I'm pretty sure they both suck major Chien-Mien...

[Giantsfan1080]

Oh lord I'm not explaining this again, go back and read the last 8 or 9 pages. Saying Ibanez is worse than Burrell is borderline trolling. Mets fan I'm guessing?

Actually Scottyboy is a Yankees fan so for him to have defend the Mets is probably killing him.

[Brodeur]

hahahahha fail. not even close to a Mets fan. I'm actually a disgruntled Yankees fan who is pissed at the Yankees for signing Tex and pretty much Burnett. In baseball, I'm only a homer for Posada, Mo, and Robby Cano. that's it. so i'm totally unbiased for once. And seeing plenty of Phils game on local channels and Ibanez playing the Yankees, I can say Burrell is better overall than Ibanez. Although I'm pretty sure they both suck major Chien-Mien...

Robinson Cano blows, and Tex was a terrific signing. Get off it whorebag.

[twista6002]

Aaron Rowand was not the heart and soul of the 05-06 White Sox. He was a fan favorite, but Konerko, Dye, and the whole pitching staff meant a lot more to that team than Rowand.

Why do you have to be a hater? I actually like the Phillies, but they are not cut and dry the best team in the NL, let alone the MLB, just because they are defending champions. I mean, even as of last week, Vegas has the Yankees (5/2), Red Sox (15/2), Cubs (7/1), and Mets (7/1) as more favored to win the WS than the Phillies (11/1). Is that because they are Phillies haters as well?

How am I being a hater? I'm just angry people are disrspecting the defending champs. They only won the world series in extremely convincing fashion. And they upgraded their lineup this offseason. And yes, Vegas oddsmakers are Philly haters. They said the Dodgers would beat us, didn't happen, and they said the Rays would beat us, didn't happen. There's always been a New York bias in oddsmaking, hence the Jets having better odds of winning the super bowl than the Eagles. I don't think it's so unreasonable to maybe, just maybe say, that they could possibly be the best team in baseball, and until someone else proves they're better on the field, still are.

[twista6002]

He had 3 very good starts and 2 terrible starts in 2007 in Sept. We didn't lose because of him. In 2006 he was a rookie and did very well in the playoffs considering everything. Last year he had a huge bone spur in his shoulder(one of the biggest Dr. Andrews ever took out) and still posted decent number because of his toughness. I'll guarantee you Maine has a better year than Blanton in 2009.

In the long run, Maine will probably put up better numbers, but I can guarantee in September, Blanton will give his team a better chance to win.

[twista6002]

hahahahha fail. not even close to a Mets fan. I'm actually a disgruntled Yankees fan who is pissed at the Yankees for signing Tex and pretty much Burnett. In baseball, I'm only a homer for Posada, Mo, and Robby Cano. that's it. so i'm totally unbiased for once. And seeing plenty of Phils game on local channels and Ibanez playing the Yankees, I can say Burrell is better overall than Ibanez. Although I'm pretty sure they both suck major Chien-Mien...

I go to Rutgers live in New Brunswick and Phils games are never on! Unless you're a commuter from south Jersey I don't know what local channels you're talking about. And as for Ibanez not being better, read through the previous 8 pages and tell me he's not.

[Brodeur]

And as for Ibanez not being better, read through the previous 8 pages and tell me he's not.

You mean where it was you arguing against about 5 to 6 posters about that point despite mounds of evidence to the contrary?

[iowatreat54]

I never said you were being a hater...

So pretty much, everyone who doesn't think Philly is great is a Philly hater because Philly is great at everything? Let's see, the Cubs are a significantly better offensive team, have a better starting rotation, the relievers are prolly a wash at best, and Lidge on paper is better than Marmol. So, outside that the Phils won the World Series, the Cubs have proven to be a better team than the Phils. Yes, what happens in the postseason is what matters, but based on performance outside of 15ish games, the Phillies aren't a better team.

EDIT: Scotty doesn't go to Rutgers yet. Fail again.

[Giantsfan1080]

In the long run, Maine will probably put up better numbers, but I can guarantee in September, Blanton will give his team a better chance to win.

Maine's the better pitcher. One month of pitching doesn't matter across the board when you're mediocre the other 5 months. A game in May counts just as much as it does in September.

[twista6002]

You mean where it was you arguing against about 5 to 6 posters about that point despite mounds of evidence to the contrary?

Like what? An OBP 9 points higher? LOL. No one's been able to refute the fact Ibanez's BA with guys on is 100 points higher than Burrell's. Still waiting...

[twista6002]

I never said you were being a hater...

So pretty much, everyone who doesn't think Philly is great is a Philly hater because Philly is great at everything? Let's see, the Cubs are a significantly better offensive team, have a better starting rotation, the relievers are prolly a wash at best, and Lidge on paper is better than Marmol. So, outside that the Phils won the World Series, the Cubs have proven to be a better team than the Phils. Yes, what happens in the postseason is what matters, but based on performance outside of 15ish games, the Phillies aren't a better team.

EDIT: Scotty doesn't go to Rutgers yet. Fail again.

Isn't postseason success what the game is measured on? That's the goal. Not to have the best record, heck in some cases not even to win your division. Every team's goal starting from spring training is to win a world series. I'm sure teams last year had better teams on paper, doesn't make them a better team though.

[comahan]

Yes, yes it does.

[iowatreat54]

Isn't postseason success what the game is measured on? That's the goal. Not to have the best record, heck in some cases not even to win your division. Every team's goal starting from spring training is to win a world series. I'm sure teams last year had better teams on paper, doesn't make them a better team though.

So, the 2007 Rockies were the 2nd best team in the MLB?

The goal is to win the World Series, but that doesn't mean the best team always wins the World Series. So, if a team like the Dodgers has the best record in the MLB from start to finish, but goes cold in the LCS, loses to a Cubs team that barely won the worst division in baseball but is on an incredible hotstreak. Obviously the Cubs are overall the better team, despite being worse in every statistical category besides being able to win 4 games in October, correct?

[twista6002]

Maine's the better pitcher. One month of pitching doesn't matter across the board when you're mediocre the other 5 months. A game in May counts just as much as it does in September.

Jerry Manuel is that you?

Maybe in the standings yes, but a win is a lot more important in September. At that point, May is water under the bridge.

EDIT: Actually looking at it, Blanton usually gives his team a better chance of winning in general. When Blanton started the Phils were 9-4, Maine the Mets were 13-12. Maine got 5.12 runs per game and Blanton 5.61 but that's just under half a run. The likelyhood of winning (69.2%) with Blanton vs Maine (52%) outweights the amount of runs each received. And with the Phils Blanton put up nearly an identical ERA despite pitching in a hitter friendly park.

[twista6002]

So, the 2007 Rockies were the 2nd best team in the MLB?

The goal is to win the World Series, but that doesn't mean the best team always wins the World Series. So, if a team like the Dodgers has the best record in the MLB from start to finish, but goes cold in the LCS, loses to a Cubs team that barely won the worst division in baseball but is on an incredible hotstreak. Obviously the Cubs are overall the better team, despite being worse in every statistical category besides being able to win 4 games in October, correct?

Well, I hate the phrase cold streak, hotstreak, etc. But if you were supposedly the best team in baseball and can't beat a team you're supposed to beat, then you probably weren't the best team in baseball to begin with. You can make all kinds of hypothetical situations saying Tampa, Angels, even the Cubs were the best team in baseball. But like I said your purpose is to win a world series, I don't care if you win 130 games, if you don't win the world series and someone else does, somebody is better than you. They won when it mattered.

[twista6002]

Yes, yes it does.

Okay, so Dallas and San Diego had the best teams on paper in football. Were they the best teams?

[comahan]

I have no idea, I just find the conversation annoying and think its utterly pointless and idiotic. So I disagreed with you just to do so.

[Stash]

Like what? An OBP 9 points higher? LOL. No one's been able to refute the fact Ibanez's BA with guys on is 100 points higher than Burrell's. Still waiting...
It's not just the OBP, Burrell is also superior in SLG. Last year SLG:
Burrell .507
Ibanez .479

Then when you combine that with how much PHI payed for Ibanez compared to how much Burrell got it was a bad deal. The fact that you continue to deny it and continue to slurp your team only shows how big of a homer you are.

[twista6002]

It's not just the OBP, Burrell is also superior in SLG. Last year SLG:
Burrell .507
Ibanez .479

Then when you combine that with how much PHI payed for Ibanez compared to how much Burrell got it was a bad deal. The fact that you continue to deny it and continue to slurp your team only shows how big of a homer you are.

Slugging is nice, but it is moot considering there's a .100 descrpency is AVG with guys on. To win games you need to score runs, not hit doubles with no one on and strike out with guys on.

And as for me being a homer. I guess saying the team that is the defending champ, who won in dominant fashion and only upgraded might be the best team in baseball makes me a homer :rolleyes: okay

[comahan]

They won in dominant fashion against the Rays.

Ew.

[iowatreat54]

So, just to clarify, the team that plays better baseball for 3 weeks is better than the team that plays better baseball for 6 months because those 3 weeks rate higher on the highly praised importance meter?

Look, I know the World Series title is all that matters, I get it. But if you honestly think that the best team wins the World Series every single year, that is the worst argument I've heard in a long time.

[comahan]

So, just to clarify, the team that plays better baseball for 3 weeks is better than the team that plays better baseball for 6 months because those 3 weeks rate higher on the highly praised importance meter?

Look, I know the World Series title is all that matters, I get it. But if you honestly think that the best team wins the World Series every single year, that is the worst argument I've heard in a long time.

ding ding ding

[twista6002]

So, just to clarify, the team that plays better baseball for 3 weeks is better than the team that plays better baseball for 6 months because those 3 weeks rate higher on the highly praised importance meter?

Look, I know the World Series title is all that matters, I get it. But if you honestly think that the best team wins the World Series every single year, that is the worst argument I've heard in a long time.

Then what would your measurement be as to who's the best team?

[Giantsfan1080]

Jerry Manuel is that you?

Maybe in the standings yes, but a win is a lot more important in September. At that point, May is water under the bridge.

EDIT: Actually looking at it, Blanton usually gives his team a better chance of winning in general. When Blanton started the Phils were 9-4, Maine the Mets were 13-12. Maine got 5.12 runs per game and Blanton 5.61 but that's just under half a run. The likelyhood of winning (69.2%) with Blanton vs Maine (52%) outweights the amount of runs each received. And with the Phils Blanton put up nearly an identical ERA despite pitching in a hitter friendly park.

Like I said he had a huge bone spur in his arm all of last year. Now that it's fully healed I think we'll see him put up numbers like he did in the first half of 2007. As a side note if Jerry Manuel was the managre for the whole year in 2008 we would have ran away with the division.

[Stash]

Slugging is nice, but it is moot considering there's a .100 descrpency is AVG with guys on. To win games you need to score runs, not hit doubles with no one on and strike out with guys on.

And as for me being a homer. I guess saying the team that is the defending champ, who won in dominant fashion and only upgraded might be the best team in baseball makes me a homer :rolleyes: okay
RISP is not a good way to judge players. There is too much luck involved. If you're gonna sit there and tell me that Ibanez has a magical switch that he turns on when there is a runner in scoring position that makes him hit better then you are nuts. The Phillies didn't upgrade, they overpaid for a downgrade.

[twista6002]

ding ding ding


http://i63.photobucket.com/albums/h145/Twista6002/TROLLING.jpg

[twista6002]

Like I said he had a huge bone spur in his arm all of last year. Now that it's fully healed I think we'll see him put up numbers like he did in the first half of 2007. As a side note if Jerry Manuel was the managre for the whole year in 2008 we would have ran away with the division.

Interesting, because he was the manager when they had the had the lead with a few weeks left and when all they had to do was win their last game to get in.

[iowatreat54]

Then what would your measurement be as to who's the best team?

There is not set equation that says "the ___ are the best team in 2008." Were the Phillies one of the best teams in 2008? Yes. Were they cut and dry, black and white, hands down, the best team in 2008? No. You look at postseason performance, regular season performance, strength of division, injuries, overall statistics, etc. Even more so, there is even less of a finite way to say who is the best team preseason. Whether you like to acknowledge it or not, there are such things as hot streaks and cold streaks. The 2007 Colorado Rockies had one of, if not the hottest streak in baseball history and rode it all the way to the WS. That doesn't mean overall they were better than every other team in the NL, but for 30ish/190ish games, or 15% of games in their season, they were. Similarly, the Mets went incredibly cold, or choked, late in 2008. Does that mean they were not one of the better teams in the NL? No.

[twista6002]

RISP is not a good way to judge players. There is too much luck involved. If you're gonna sit there and tell me that Ibanez has a magical switch that he turns on when there is a runner in scoring position that makes him hit better then you are nuts. The Phillies didn't upgrade, they overpaid for a downgrade.

RISP isn't a good way to judge players but SLG and OBP are? Am I the only one who sees a problem with this?

It's obviously not as simple as you put it, but Ibanez is a much more relaxed and willing to shorten his swing, whereas Burrell presses and tries to kill the ball. And luck? Did you seriously say luck? How much luck could possibly be involved with a .100 descrpency? That's almost as ridiculous as Dallas fans saying a 44-6 win is "luck.

[twista6002]

There is not set equation that says "the ___ are the best team in 2008." Were the Phillies one of the best teams in 2008? Yes. Were they cut and dry, black and white, hands down, the best team in 2008? No. You look at postseason performance, regular season performance, strength of division, injuries, overall statistics, etc. Even more so, there is even less of a finite way to say who is the best team preseason. Whether you like to acknowledge it or not, there are such things as hot streaks and cold streaks. The 2007 Colorado Rockies had one of, if not the hottest streak in baseball history and rode it all the way to the WS. That doesn't mean overall they were better than every other team in the NL, but for 30ish/190ish games, or 15% of games in their season, they were. Similarly, the Mets went incredibly cold, or choked, late in 2008. Does that mean they were not one of the better teams in the NL? No.

I agree that the Phils weren't black and white the best. But you can agree that there was a tier of the best teams in baseball. And you can also agree the Phils were in it. So if they come out on top of a fight between those teams, is it really a stretch to say they were the best?

[mqtirishfan]

Jerry Manuel is that you?

Maybe in the standings yes, but a win is a lot more important in September. At that point, May is water under the bridge.


1 less win is needed in September if you win a game in May, idiot.

[Giantsfan1080]

Interesting, because he was the manager when they had the had the lead with a few weeks left and when all they had to do was win their last game to get in.

That's great but when he took over the team was in the dumps and he got them back to playing good ball. It's not Manuel's fault his closer got hurt and then the bullpen started to implode totally after that. Everyone was terrible in the bullpen in September and he did all he could to fix it. Last year wasn't really a collapse considering everything the team went through. The Phillies are the favorites this year but the Mets have a pretty good chance to beat them. It's going to hurt you possibly not having Utley for the first 2 months.

[mqtirishfan]

RISP isn't a good way to judge players but SLG and OBP are? Am I the only one who sees a problem with this?

Yes, you are. Probably because you're the only one who doesn't understand statistics.

It's obviously not as simple as you put it, but Ibanez is a much more relaxed and willing to shorten his swing, whereas Burrell presses and tries to kill the ball. And luck? Did you seriously say luck? How much luck could possibly be involved with a .100 descrpency? That's almost as ridiculous as Dallas fans saying a 44-6 win is "luck.

Fun with stupid statistics time...

Career OBP with RISP:
Burrell- .386
Ibanez- .380

Career HRs with RISP:
Burrell- 58
Ibanez- 49

Career Doubles with RISP:
Burrell- 93
Ibanez- 76

Career OPS with RISP/2 Outs (ZOMG, SUPERCLUTCH):
Burrell- .856
Ibanez- .854

[twista6002]

1 less win is needed in September if you win a game in May, idiot.

No need for name calling. Come on man, how old are you?

Keep in mind Blanton ain't no loser. As I pointed out earlier, when Blanton pitches his team is more likely to win. So yea there'll be a win in September and in May. Sweet.

[twista6002]

That's great but when he took over the team was in the dumps and he got them back to playing good ball. It's not Manuel's fault his closer got hurt and then the bullpen started to implode totally after that. Everyone was terrible in the bullpen in September and he did all he could to fix it. Last year wasn't really a collapse considering everything the team went through. The Phillies are the favorites this year but the Mets have a pretty good chance to beat them. It's going to hurt you possibly not having Utley for the first 2 months.

That isn't to say the team would have played that well the portion of the season Randolph managed. Keep in mind he was just barely above .500 as a manager before this year. It's completely hypothetical.

[mqtirishfan]

No need for name calling. Come on man, how old are you?

Keep in mind Blanton ain't no loser. As I pointed out earlier, when Blanton pitches his team is more likely to win. So yea there'll be a win in September and in May. Sweet.

This has absolutely nothing to do with the point you were going for in the post I quoted. You specifically said that a win in September is more important than a win in May. However, both wins count the same toward making the playoffs.

[Giantsfan1080]

That isn't to say the team would have played that well the portion of the season Randolph managed. Keep in mind he was just barely above .500 as a manager before this year. It's completely hypothetical.

Reyes and Delgado didn't like Willie too much and it showed. Unforunately for Willie his firing coinincided with Reyes and Delgado playing like they are capable which was above average. This argument is going to go in circles so hopefully April gets here quick.

[twista6002]

Yes, you are. Probably because you're the only one who doesn't understand statistics.



Fun with stupid statistics time...

Career OBP with RISP:
Burrell- .386
Ibanez- .380

Career HRs with RISP:
Burrell- 58
Ibanez- 49

Career Doubles with RISP:
Burrell- 93
Ibanez- 76

Career OPS with RISP/2 Outs (ZOMG, SUPERCLUTCH):
Burrell- .856
Ibanez- .854

Most of Burrell's damage was done pre-2006. Look at the same stats for the last 3 years.

But these stats shouldn't matter, there's too much luck involved ;)

[iowatreat54]

I agree that the Phils weren't black and white the best. But you can agree that there was a tier of the best teams in baseball. And you can also agree the Phils were in it. So if they come out on top of a fight between those teams, is it really a stretch to say they were the best?

They were one of the best. But, and I'm not trying to be a homer, when the Cubs are better than the Phillies in nearly every single team statistic, came out of arguably a tougher division, but since the Phillies played better for 3 ******* weeks, they are a better team? Again, I know the playoffs and World Series is how you determine a champion, and the Phillies were the better team when it was most important, but just because they won a selection of games that another team didn't doesn't mean they are better. Being better for 156 games (the Phils took 4 of 7 vs. the Cubs) is usually considered better than being better for 20 games; at least, I've always been taught 156>20, give or take some.

Postseason success is a determining factor, but it isn't the determining factor, or act as a "tie breaker." By saying a team is in a top tier of the best teams, that doesn't mean all those teams are equal. Say all the factors, such as regular season record, overall team statistics, etc. are weighted heavier combined than the weight that the post season carries; if that is true, then the extra benefit brought by the Phillies post season success is not enough to overcome how much better the Cubs were during the regular season in nearly every category.

Yes, the Phillies have the hardware that matters, and I'm not trying to hang my hat on being the regular season champion, but you really need to realize that just because a team or individual, in any sport, plays better for less than 20% of total games in an overall season, regardless of what those games determine, it does not mean they are the better team. It just means they were better at that given time.

[Giantsfan1080]

It's a shame you are a Phillies fan. You go to Rutgers, like I did, which usually puts people in my good graces but I guess we'll be battling it out all baseball season.

[mqtirishfan]

Most of Burrell's damage was done pre-2006. Look at the same stats for the last 3 years.

But these stats shouldn't matter, there's too much luck involved ;)

They don't matter. They're cherry-picked stats I used to make Burrell look more clutch. Sound familiar?

[twista6002]

This has absolutely nothing to do with the point you were going for in the post I quoted. You specifically said that a win in September is more important than a win in May. However, both wins count the same toward making the playoffs.

Obviously from a broad context they do, but when September rolls around May is water under the bridge. Regardless of what happened in May, games are of epically higher importance in September.

[twista6002]

They don't matter. They're cherry-picked stats I used to make Burrell look more clutch. Sound familiar?

Yea it does matter, because Burrell is a shell of the player he used to be. If you want to talk relevant stats prove to me Ibanez isn't as good of a clutch hitter today.

[Borat]

Blanton sucks.

[mqtirishfan]

Obviously from a broad context they do, but when September rolls around May is water under the bridge. Regardless of what happened in May, games are of epically higher importance in September.

The broad context is all that matters. By winning that game in May, a team does not have to worry quite as much about that super important game in September.

[twista6002]

It's a shame you are a Phillies fan. You go to Rutgers, like I did, which usually puts people in my good graces but I guess we'll be battling it out all baseball season.

What campus did you live on? And yes, Kenny Britt is a 1st rounder.

[mqtirishfan]

Yea it does matter, because Burrell is a shell of the player he used to be. If you want to talk relevant stats prove to me Ibanez isn't as good of a clutch hitter today.

Burrell isn't a shell of himself; in fact, he's been consistently better over the past 4 years. However, this does go to show how much luck is involved when dealing with RISP. His hitting has stayed the same or better, but his RISP numbers have dipped over the past 2 years. This is because one of the 6/10 times he's bound to fail to produce just happened to come at an unlucky time.

[twista6002]

The broad context is all that matters. By winning that game in May, a team does not have to worry quite as much about that super important game in September.

Well, in the broad context, Blanton is more likely to get his team a win than Maine.

[twista6002]

Burrell isn't a shell of himself; in fact, he's been consistently better over the past 4 years. However, this does go to show how much luck is involved when dealing with RISP. His hitting has stayed the same or better, but his RISP numbers have dipped over the past 2 years. This is because one of the 6/10 times he's bound to fail to produce just happened to come at an unlucky time.

Um yea, he is. I've probably watched 130+ Phils games for a year for the last 10 years or so and he's declined. We wanted him benched at one point. He presses with guys on. Even moreso this past year. He swings at bad pitches and tries to kill the ball. There was a stretch when he couldn't even hit a sac fly. Ibanez won't have the same OBP or SLG but he'll hit for contact more and stay within himself, therefore you see a higher avg, and more runs. This is why he's an upgrade over Burrell.

[mqtirishfan]

Well, in the broad context, Blanton is more likely to get his team a win than Maine.

First of all, why the **** do I care? I'm not a part of the Blanton v. Maine debate, although Maine's stats are generally much better, which means he's giving his team a greater opportunity to win. It's not Maine's fault that Blanton must have got more run support.

[mqtirishfan]

Um yea, he is. I've probably watched 130+ Phils games for a year for the last 10 years or so and he's declined.

He must have had some fantastic performances in those other 50 games, because the stats (you know, those things that track what happened in those games) disagree with you.

Jesus Christ, whose turn is it next?

[Stash]

Um yea, he is. I've probably watched 130+ Phils games for a year for the last 10 years or so and he's declined. We wanted him benched at one point. He presses with guys on. Even moreso this past year. He swings at bad pitches and tries to kill the ball. There was a stretch when he couldn't even hit a sac fly. Ibanez won't have the same OBP or SLG but he'll hit for contact more and stay within himself, therefore you see a higher avg, and more runs. This is why he's an upgrade over Burrell.
Are you suggesting a higher average leads to more runs? OBP and SLG have much more correlation to runs scored and Burrell is superior in both. If you can't understand that then you have a lot to learn young padawan.

[nobodyinparticular]

Um yea, he is. I've probably watched 130+ Phils games for a year for the last 10 years or so and he's declined. We wanted him benched at one point. He presses with guys on. Even moreso this past year. He swings at bad pitches and tries to kill the ball. There was a stretch when he couldn't even hit a sac fly. Ibanez won't have the same OBP or SLG but he'll hit for contact more and stay within himself, therefore you see a higher avg, and more runs. This is why he's an upgrade over Burrell.

Philly fans have wanted to bench Pat the Bat almost every season he's been in Philadelphia.

[Forenci]

Slugging is nice, but it is moot considering there's a .100 descrpency is AVG with guys on. To win games you need to score runs, not hit doubles with no one on and strike out with guys on.

And as for me being a homer. I guess saying the team that is the defending champ, who won in dominant fashion and only upgraded might be the best team in baseball makes me a homer :rolleyes: okay

Alright, we get it. You're super casual fan who thinks the only thing that matters in baseball is September and disregard stats that have more relevance (like OBP and Slugging %) and use ones that that tell you nothing (like batting average). This is coming from someone who's not a sabermetric stat nut like Tampa either, but you're being extremely naive and foolish.

Plus you're contradicting yourself repeatedly. You're saying we're all morons and everyone of us wrong because A) You say Ibanez is better than Burrell despite everyone disagreeing with you (and posting relevant stats that you disregard) and B) We all think your rotation is crap (outside of Cole) but because say Blanton is 'clutch' it means we're all wrong too.

Not to mention anyone who has anything remotely related to the city of New York in their sigs or mentions the Mets you claim is a Mets homer for whatever reason. Fact is, despite everyone who isn't a Phillies fan (and even Bsaza to some extent who is one) saying you're not that great a team doesn't mean they're homers or are disregarding the fact the Phillies won the World Series last year.

Unlike a lot of other sports, it doesn't matter what the **** you did last year. It's a widely unpredictable sport that varies every year. Can you (or anyone outside of Tampa) honestly tell me you thought the Rays would be a World Series team last year? Hell, did anyone think the Phillies would win the World Series last year? Not many, thats for sure.

[Borat]

Joe Blanton is teh suck.

[bsaza2358]

Are we seriously still spending all this time on Blanton and Burrell? Sheesh, there must be no news in baseball...

[Sniper]

Joe Blanton is teh suck.

kq-nNYr0h7Y&feature=related

Win.

[Sniper]

Burrell's range in left field is non-existent. I won't pretend to have watched enough of Ibanez to judge him, but I don't see how his range could be any worse.

That being said, the Phils overpaid a lot for Ibanez. He is in no way worth $10 million per year. Then again, this is the same organization that thought paying Adam Eaton $24 million for 3 years was a good idea.

[VoteLynnSwan]

the "I watch the... therefore I know everything about them, and you don't" line is probably the stupidest thing anyone can say.

[fischbowl]

Are we seriously still spending all this time on Blanton and Burrell? Sheesh, there must be no news in baseball...

Well the Padres invited Gabe DeHoyos to Spring Training. Discuss........

[Sniper]

I don't know if it's been posted yet, but Johan Santana won't be in the WBC.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090210&content_id=3813624&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

[tjsunstein]

Wow, did I miss the once a year discussion involving the Phillies? Damnit!

[Jughead10]

I saw a post on the NYYFans message board saying they wish Aaron Boone had never gotten hurt playing basketball. Man some Yankee fans are ******* idiots (strangely though, none on this forum).

Sorry for pulling this back up from a bunch of pages back, but I've been away for the last 2-3 days and missed all the talk. Obviously A-Rod helps us win so much more than Boone would. However Boone's HR is one of the greatest moments in what is now the old Yankee Stadium. In 3 months Boone had a bigger hit than A-Rod has in 5 years. Yankee fans are just very sentimental. The few times he has come back with other teams, Boone has gotten standing ovations.

[Jughead10]

I don't know if it's been posted yet, but Johan Santana won't be in the WBC.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090210&content_id=3813624&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

It's the right move. Their is the rule that if you finish the season on the DL, you can't play in it. Although Johan didn't finish on the DL, he was hurt and had surgery immediately after the season. He owes not playing to the Mets.

[bsaza2358]

Wow, did I miss the once a year discussion involving the Phillies? Damnit!

I'm sure we'll be discussing how much they suck around April 25...

[Brent]

Joe Blanton is teh suck.
Better than Barry "10-17" Zito... I'm bitter; we havent won a WS title since '54!