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I KNOW IT ALL
02-23-2009, 04:58 PM
This forum makes no sense. Everytime I read it 95% of the people on here talk about how unimportant the combine is, particularly things like the 40, Bench, etc.

Yet, the combine comes up, and people can't stop making rash decisions on players based on the very drills they were calling largely unimportant.

All of a sudden a guy like Maybin is a 3rd round talent.

Heyward-Bey (who everybody knew had amazing track speed anyway!) is a lock for the first half of the 1st round.

Laurinaitis doesn't have the speed to play in space.

etc. etc. etc.

bored of education
02-23-2009, 04:59 PM
This forum makes no sense. Everytime I read it 95% of the people on here talk about how unimportant the combine is, particularly things like the 40, Bench, etc.

Yet, the combine comes up, and people can't stop making rash decisions on players based on the very drills they were calling largely unimportant.

All of a sudden a guy like Maybin is a 3rd round talent.

Heyward-Bey (who everybody knew had amazing track speed anyway!) is a lock for the first half of the 1st round.

Laurinaitis doesn't have the speed to play in space.

etc. etc. etc.


sadly I was gonna post the same exact thing

this thread=truth

coordinator0
02-23-2009, 05:01 PM
I agree. I think that the overall importance of the combine is right around the middle of "not important at all" and "your career is on the line if you don't do great."

Gay Ork Wang
02-23-2009, 05:04 PM
i dont see how its hypocrisy when they say the drills are unimportant but they are a lock because of that.

Themselves, they can believe in the drills being useless, doesnt mean the NFL teams evaluate that way and it doesnt mean it increases their stock

foozball
02-23-2009, 05:06 PM
its not really important, but when you see players like knowshon running so much slower than running backs from year's past, it makes you scratch your head a bit

bored of education
02-23-2009, 05:08 PM
it reminds me of a job interview..your resume speaks volumes but you can make or break your chance of a job during the interview process. sorta? lol

Crickett
02-23-2009, 05:10 PM
This forum makes no sense. Everytime I read it 95% of the people on here talk about how unimportant the combine is, particularly things like the 40, Bench, etc.

Yet, the combine comes up, and people can't stop making rash decisions on players based on the very drills they were calling largely unimportant.

All of a sudden a guy like Maybin is a 3rd round talent.

Heyward-Bey (who everybody knew had amazing track speed anyway!) is a lock for the first half of the 1st round.

Laurinaitis doesn't have the speed to play in space.

etc. etc. etc.

I'd say some of it is an overreaction and some of it is not. If a prospect is more potential than production and does poorly in the combine....... his draft stock is going to plummet. Thats the way it is and the way it should be. On the flip side, we all knew DHB was going to have an impressive 40, but how many really figured 4.3 flat and the fastest guy at the combine? We all knew he was fast, but at the very least I didn't think he was THAT fast.

josh07039
02-23-2009, 05:12 PM
There is a distinction. The combine is essential to draft stock, however, it isn't too important in terms of who everyone feels is a good player. At this point everyone knows who they think can play and who can't. The combine is most important for draft nuts in that it has such a profound impact on where people get drafted. However, it can also somewhat influence people's opinions on someone.

One example, small school prospects that beat up crappy competition can go to the combine and show that they have the tools to compete at ta higher level.

Brent
02-23-2009, 05:13 PM
I would love to see the interviews with players that teams conduct. I would think that those along with medical evaluations are probably the two most important things. I think the position drills are probably third.

PossibleCabbage
02-23-2009, 05:17 PM
The draft is kind of like the stock market. A lot of it is based on psychology. Company stocks frequently rise or drop not because they made or lost money, but because they lost less money than we thought they would or they didn't make as much money as we thought they would. It's the same thing with football players before the draft. Guys move up because they fail to live down to our expectations and guys move down because they don't live up to our expectations.

The important difference between the market and the draft, though, is that football is full of people who are fans and apologists, while the market is less so. There are all sorts of people in the world who think that USC is the best football team, and that any of USC's players are better than any player on any other football team. So when we get contradictory evidence for these theories, people tend to either be disappointed, or become apologists in the sense of "the combine just doesn't matter" or "all that matters is tape."

There's a grain of truth in "all that matters is tape", but there's a certain value in being able to compare players on equal grounds. Wake Forest doesn't have the same talent on defense as USC, so it's non-trivial to compare Curry to Maualuga (for example.) But when you have them both do the same drills that test football relevant ability, you notice things about their relative speed, fluidity, etc. that may be harder to get off of game film (particularly between those two, since they played different positions in college, but may be playing the same position in the pros.)

So the combine is neither the be-all and end-all, but neither is tape, since comparative talent levels are nowhere near level across NCAA football. People are going to be disappointed and/or apologists because they're fans, and a fundamental aspect of "fandom" is "irrationality" (since "fan" is etymologically derived from "fanatic"). People aren't really hypocrites, they're just fans; fans of players, fans of teams, whatever. There's nothing wrong with this, since football is more fun when you're a fan of someone or something, but it is going to leave you looking silly every once in a while. But it happens to everybody. If it happens to you too much, or too little you may want to re-evaluate some of the ways you look at things, but there's no real shame to be had here.

Babylon
02-23-2009, 05:19 PM
I think it's part of the process. Funny how it is important when someone is trying to make their case and unimportant when their guy doesnt do well.

In the end you have to evaluate their play on the field but if you have two or more players with seemingly equal grades it can seperate.

An example, my team is looking for a 3-4 OLB in the middle of round 1. My choices are Maybin, Matthews and Cushing. Matthews and Cushing have some experience playing in space and both run somewhat faster than Maybin, who has played with his hand on the ground. Who do you think i'm going to take?

superman
02-23-2009, 05:52 PM
it reminds me of a job interview..your resume speaks volumes but you can make or break your chance of a job during the interview process. sorta? lol

that's a good way to look at it

eaglesalltheway
02-23-2009, 05:54 PM
The draft is kind of like the stock market. A lot of it is based on psychology. Company stocks frequently rise or drop not because they made or lost money, but because they lost money than we thought they would or they didn't make as much money as we thought they would. It's the same thing with football players before the draft. Guys move up because they fail to live down to our expectations and guys move down because they don't live up to our expectations.

The important difference between the market and the draft, though, is that football is full of people who are fans and apologists, while the market is less so. There are all sorts of people in the world who think that USC is the best football team, and that any of USC's players are better than any player on any other football team. So when we get contradictory evidence for these theories, people tend to either be disappointed, or become apologists in the sense of "the combine just doesn't matter" or "all that matters is tape."

There's a grain of truth in "all that matters is tape", but there's a certain value in being able to compare players on equal grounds. Wake Forest doesn't have the same talent on defense as USC, so it's non-trivial to compare Curry to Maualuga (for example.) But when you have them both do the same drills that test football relevant ability, you notice things about their relative speed, fluidity, etc. that may be harder to get off of game film (particularly between those two, since they play different positions.)

So the combine is neither the be-all and end-all, but neither is tape, since comparative talent levels are nowhere near level across NCAA football. People are going to be disappointed and/or apologists because they fans, and a fundamental aspect of "fandom" is "irrationality" (since "fan" is etymologically derived from "fanatic"). People aren't really hypocrites, they're just fans; fans of players, fans of teams, whatever. There's nothing wrong with this, since football is more fun when you're a fan of someone or something, but it is going to leave you looking silly every once in a while. But it happens to everybody. If it happens to you too much, or too little you may want to re-evaluate some of the ways you look at things, but there's no real shame to be had here.

Agreed, with basically everything in this post. There are people that value the combine too much, and people that value tape too much, but what good scouts, and smart fans will do, is find the proper meshing of how valuable the tape and combine drills, interviews, etc. are. I don't go based off of solely what I've seen from a player on the field. I think it is slightly more importnat than the combine, but the combine has its importance just like you said, in exposing the differences on an even playing field between different yet similar players.

D-Unit
02-23-2009, 05:58 PM
The smart ones out there use the combine numbers to validate their grades on each player. If a player puts up good numbers, then that justifies their grades. If the numbers come back bad, then more research/consideration is required.

The dumb ones out there use the combine numbers to make their grades.

Splat
02-23-2009, 06:08 PM
This forum makes no sense. Everytime I read it 95% of the people on here talk about how unimportant the combine is, particularly things like the 40, Bench, etc.

Yet, the combine comes up, and people can't stop making rash decisions on players based on the very drills they were calling largely unimportant.

All of a sudden a guy like Maybin is a 3rd round talent.

Heyward-Bey (who everybody knew had amazing track speed anyway!) is a lock for the first half of the 1st round.

Laurinaitis doesn't have the speed to play in space.

etc. etc. etc.

I know in the back of my mind the combine is some what overrated while it is important what they did on the field is WAY more important.

That being said I'm such a football nut and crave any thing football its hard for me not to get sucked in to the hype so I'm guilty as charged sir.

DeathbyStat
02-23-2009, 06:11 PM
This forum makes no sense. Everytime I read it 95% of the people on here talk about how unimportant the combine is, particularly things like the 40, Bench, etc.

Yet, the combine comes up, and people can't stop making rash decisions on players based on the very drills they were calling largely unimportant.

All of a sudden a guy like Maybin is a 3rd round talent.

Heyward-Bey (who everybody knew had amazing track speed anyway!) is a lock for the first half of the 1st round.

Laurinaitis doesn't have the speed to play in space.

etc. etc. etc.



I didn't like Maybin and Laurinaitis before the combine and wouldn't have liked them if they blew up the combine

eaglesalltheway
02-23-2009, 06:23 PM
I didn't like Maybin and Laurinaitis before the combine and wouldn't have liked them if they blew up the combine

I'll second that, especially Maybin. Many people know of my dislike of Maybin as a NFL player. I'm a little relieved he didn't blow it up, because then I might have to really look back again at him, but considering I've seen all of his games, there wouldn't be much to see. I think his Combine will place him in hsi apropriate draft stock in that 2nd round range. He could go late first to early third, but I say he still ends up in the second which is where he should be considered...

DeathbyStat
02-23-2009, 06:24 PM
I'll second that, especially Maybin. Many people know of my dislike of Maybin as a NFL player. I'm a little relieved he didn't blow it up, because then I might have to really look back again at him, but considering I've seen all of his games, there wouldn't be much to see. I think his Combine will place him in hsi apropriate draft stock in that 2nd round range. He could go late first to early third, but I say he still ends up in the second which is where he should be considered...

Totally agree

Shane P. Hallam
02-23-2009, 06:26 PM
Well, we are talking about two different things here:


1. How WE view the prospects.

2. How THEY view the prospects

I think we have seen that there are a lot of NFL teams and scouts who put a lot of stock in the combine. Therefore, saying someone like DHB is now a first half of the first round lock is correct, because some NFL team will come in and love him and take him.

If I come in and say OMG JOHNNY KNOX IS THE BEST WR IN THE DRAFT NOW. Then yes, that is way off base. Often times people get confused because there become two different views on this forum: 1. What I personally think of a prospect and 2. Where I think a prospect will ultimately go. Calling users on this forum hypocratic for adjusting value, no matter how inflated, because some NFL team may do the same is ludicrous. I mean, hey, we are just doing what Al Davis is, and guess what, HE IS PICKING FOR A REAL TEAM!

So, there is a difference between someone saying "This proves Maybin has 3rd round value," yes, that is way offbase, or saying "I think this forces a team to take this guy in the Top 15," which may be true, because heck, some NFL TEAMS may overrate (or not, your choice,) the NFL combine.

I KNOW IT ALL
02-23-2009, 06:49 PM
Well, we are talking about two different things here:


1. How WE view the prospects.

2. How THEY view the prospects

I think we have seen that there are a lot of NFL teams and scouts who put a lot of stock in the combine. Therefore, saying someone like DHB is now a first half of the first round lock is correct, because some NFL team will come in and love him and take him.

If I come in and say OMG JOHNNY KNOX IS THE BEST WR IN THE DRAFT NOW. Then yes, that is way off base. Often times people get confused because there become two different views on this forum: 1. What I personally think of a prospect and 2. Where I think a prospect will ultimately go. Calling users on this forum hypocratic for adjusting value, no matter how inflated, because some NFL team may do the same is ludicrous. I mean, hey, we are just doing what Al Davis is, and guess what, HE IS PICKING FOR A REAL TEAM!

So, there is a difference between someone saying "This proves Maybin has 3rd round value," yes, that is way offbase, or saying "I think this forces a team to take this guy in the Top 15," which may be true, because heck, some NFL TEAMS may overrate (or not, your choice,) the NFL combine.

What did DHB's 40 tell us about him that we didn't already know? The guy is a track star. He can run fast on a track.

Shane P. Hallam
02-23-2009, 06:59 PM
I'm not saying it told us new information. But this 40 time DOES make scouts "ooh" and "aah" and put an actual number to his speed. By doing that, it makes them like him more and take him over some of the other WRs or skill position players in the draft.


So why fault us for adjusting his value a bit? Honestly, he was likely in the Top 20ish anyway.

I KNOW IT ALL
02-23-2009, 07:07 PM
I'm not saying it told us new information. But this 40 time DOES make scouts "ooh" and "aah" and put an actual number to his speed. By doing that, it makes them like him more and take him over some of the other WRs or skill position players in the draft.


So why fault us for adjusting his value a bit? Honestly, he was likely in the Top 20ish anyway.

See, I bet barely anybody had DHB as a top of the first round lock until after the combine...

LonghornsLegend
02-23-2009, 07:29 PM
Just because some people on these boards overrate the Combine doesn't mean that scouts do, it's just a piece of the puzzle, their still going back to the tape before they make any type of decision on a player. I just think it's even funnier when people around here call all these drills useless.


Coaches, GM's and Scouts use all that information to grade a player, just like Jon Gruden said Broad Jump wasn't high up on his board as far as determining what a player can do, but it helps gauge what type of explosion they have. They also can look at a guy and see what he's exception in, or what he's below average in, their not looking at combine drills and making their decision.


For as many guys that overrate the combine around here, there are just as many people underrating the combine and acting like it's not important...Their are always workout warriors who bust, and there are also guys like Rogers-Cromartie who make a name for themselves through drills, it's not the "be all, end all", it's just a big piece of the puzzle, and other then Al Davis I don't see too many teams freaking out from a few drills.

parrish_lemar24DBSkins
02-23-2009, 07:44 PM
Everyone gets a little crazy when it comes to projecting what kind of player someone will become in the NFL. We're all looking for that magic formula of height, weight, game tapes, and 40 times, indicators of ability, but not a sure-fire gauge of talent or performance at the next level.

We'll never know until they put the pads on, but there are clues we all look for.

I will say that for some positions, especially defensive players who have to play in space and cover a lot of ground, a 40 time can be an indication of a player's ability to be successful in the pros.
CBs who run slower than 4.55 usually have a difficult time covering in the NFL. LBs who run slower than 4.8 generally will struggle in the pros.

But we all know there are exceptions to this rule.

Kansas City DB Brandon Flowers out of Va Tech ran a terribly slow 40,
( high 4.5s), but his great anticipation, ball skills and quickness compensate for his lack of straight line speed.

A similar case can be made for Ty Law.

Same with Rey Maualuga. I expect him to make several pro bowls in his career despite his slow 40 speed, because of his size, strength, mental make-up, and instincts. Simply put, he's one helluva LB after kickoff.

But in general, slow corners, WRs, and LBs struggle to find success in the NFL.

We're not hypocrites, just fans of the game!!

Iamcanadian
02-23-2009, 11:32 PM
The combine was always important, people just like to think it isn't. At the least, the combine confirms what type of athlete you are, elite, very good, good, fair or poor. It will impact your ranking if your workouts show that you aren't the type of athlete normally associated with where you are on team's draft board or you can move up or stay the same by proving you are. Then there are the drills which clearly indicate where you excel or where you show problems, these are bound to impact you placement on team's draft boards.
Finally there is the physical exam and interview which also can greatly impact your ranking.
Teams have studied players quite extensively both at games and on film but after the combine, they go back over their film looking to see how a player utilizes his strengths and weaknesses seen in the combine since they are now confirmed.
Does the combine alone decide your fate, no, that is a ridiculous assumption, it has always been a combination of the combine and film with film as the main ingredient and the combine as the backup evidence which either re-enforces what you have seen on film or suggests you take another hard look at the prospect.
If you have a great combine you can move up, stay the same but never move down, if you have a bad combine, you can still stay the same if your review of game film still suggests your good enough or you can move down if a review of the game film raises serious questions that maybe weren't as noticeable before.
The draft is a process were every event has its importance and each event can and often does effect where you are picked. However people are human and each GM may give a different weight to each event. All we know for sure is that some GM's are great drafters, some are average drafters and some are incompetent drafters.

Bama9507
02-23-2009, 11:39 PM
This forum makes no sense. Everytime I read it 95% of the people on here talk about how unimportant the combine is, particularly things like the 40, Bench, etc.

Yet, the combine comes up, and people can't stop making rash decisions on players based on the very drills they were calling largely unimportant.

All of a sudden a guy like Maybin is a 3rd round talent.

Heyward-Bey (who everybody knew had amazing track speed anyway!) is a lock for the first half of the 1st round.

Laurinaitis doesn't have the speed to play in space.

etc. etc. etc.

Be prepared to get the neg rep ! It has ruined my life !