PDA

View Full Version : Gut Feelings on Prospects


BuddyCHRIST
02-26-2009, 05:33 AM
I tried to get Scott's input on this in his chat but didn't get an answer so I figured I'd ask everyone else and maybe Scott would answer to.

Everyone knows there's many boom/bust type picks in the draft, and even if you realize that they have high bust potential you rate them higher than guys with higher floors because of the ability.

The most obvious example is someone like Josh Freeman who has an immense ceiling but a good chance to be out of the league in 5 years.

What I question is how everyone see's the players actually ending up, not just how you rate them as prospects. Call it a gut feeling, because I have a feeling that Josh Freeman will be a big bust and flame out quickly, but I still have him rated as the 3rd best QB prospect and still think he is probably worth the risk of a 1st round pick. Even though I think other guys could atleast be valuable back ups for a long time.

I'll list a few guys people could answer and hope people add their own guys who they have gut feelings about regardless of how they actually view them as prospects.

Freeman - Bust, despite the great tools his production is severely lacking and he'll be forced to start before he's ready.

Vontae Davis - Bust, his attitude has me envisioning him as being a headcase for whoever drafts him and then someone takes a chance on him and regrets it.

Harvin - Boom, I think him being nicked up will always be an issue (like Westbrook is lately) but I think he'll be a gamebreaker when healthy.

Michael Johnson - Will be a nice player for a while, going against the grain since many people view him strictly as boom or bust. But I think he has a good head on his shoulders and just has a questionable motor. Guys like that have had success. I think his best fit is as a 4-3 end though, too stiff for a 3-4 OLB.

Stafford - HOF, I really have no questions that Stafford will be an elite QB. I've watched him extensively and I think he's the best QB prospect I've seen. Junior QB's don't have a great track record but he has as much experience as any QB prospects in recent memory when you consider that he's coming out of a pro style offense and played against the best defenses in the country.

Also keep in mind these don't have to be strictly boom or bust type situations.

DeathbyStat
02-26-2009, 06:09 AM
Just judging the prospects in Scott first round mock

Busts-maybe not out of the league in three years...true busts but won't live up to first round grades
Crabtree

Andre Smith

Sanchez

Oher

Maybin

Wells

Freeman

Laurinatis

Solid Players but not spectacular
Jenkins
Stafford
Moreno
Cushing
Mauluaga
Tyson Jackson
Pettigrew
Clay Matthews


Pro Bowlers
Monroe
Jason Smith
Curry
Orakpo
Raji

bitonti
02-26-2009, 07:54 AM
Stafford - HOF, I really have no questions that Stafford will be an elite QB. I've watched him extensively and I think he's the best QB prospect I've seen. Junior QB's don't have a great track record but he has as much experience as any QB prospects in recent memory when you consider that he's coming out of a pro style offense and played against the best defenses in the country.


did you just put stafford in canton?

JFLO
02-26-2009, 10:22 AM
Here are a couple of players that I have some gut feelings on:

I think Andre Smith is still going to be an elite offensive lineman when it comes to the next level. He certainly isn't showing his personal side to wells of far, but I think his game is going to transcend very well in the NFL, whether it is inside at guard or at right tackle.

I think all three USC linebackers are going to do pretty well at the next level, with the best being Maualuga. All three of them have very good instincts and are very disicplined when it comes to the game.

bitonti
02-26-2009, 10:35 AM
my gut is telling me clay matthews might actually be the best USC backer.

bored of education
02-26-2009, 10:36 AM
Gerald McGrath will be the 2nd best Lb in this class.

Babylon
02-26-2009, 11:03 AM
my gut is telling me clay matthews might actually be the best USC backer.

Not a stretch at all.

abaddon41_80
02-26-2009, 11:05 AM
My gut tells me that Crabtree is going to be a bust and that Sanchez is going to be worse than Leinart.

RaiderNation
02-26-2009, 11:16 AM
Stafford- Not a bust, not a boom. He isnt a elite QB in my eyes.
Crabtree-Boom, Top 10 WR for a long time
J.Smith-Boom, Pro Bowl LT for what ever team that drafts him
Raji-Boom, Is going to have a effect like Jenkins had with the Jets or Ngata did with the ravens
Sanchez- Same as Stafford
Eugene Monroe-Boom, not as good as J.Smith, but a pro bowler
Orakpo- Bust, I dont think he will fit as a 4-3DE or a 3-4 OLB
Jenkins- Bust, Unless he goes to a tampa 2 system
A.Smith-Boom, Ive always said he is going to good a OT.
Curry- Boom, Isnt going to be a dominant LB but will be a pro bowler
Oher- Bust, IDK what to say here, I just dont have a good feeling about him
Maualuga-Boom, gonna be a beast in a 3-4 ILB
Wells- Bust, injuries will hurt his career early
Moreno- Not a boom or bust, wont be a #1 RB but could be good in a combo

princefielder28
02-26-2009, 11:47 AM
Gerald McGrath will be the 2nd best Lb in this class.

winner winner chicken dinner

BuddyCHRIST
02-26-2009, 04:14 PM
did you just put stafford in canton?

My GUT did!

BeerBaron
02-26-2009, 04:51 PM
Oher won't bust....worst case scenario is you move him to RT where he could be even better than he ever could at LT.

SeanTaylorRIP
02-26-2009, 05:00 PM
My gut tells me Lawrence Sidbury will be a 10 sack a year player in 2 or 3 years. As a 43 DE btw. Although 34 OLB is intriguing with him.

holt_bruce81
02-26-2009, 05:38 PM
Tyrell Sutton will be a very solid Running Back in the NFL.

kwilk103
02-26-2009, 06:15 PM
freeman----boom or bust; i dont see a middle ground with him; i think he busts

sanchez---average starter, nothing special; maybe a pro bowl or 2

stafford----pro bowl player

pat white---G.O.A.T.

phlysac
02-26-2009, 07:14 PM
A Late Round/ UDFA RB that will find success as a change-of-pace-back... Tyrell Fenroy - Louisiana Lafayette

A likely UDFA QB that I feel will end up being at least a serviceable backup...
Tyler Lorenzen - Connecticut

Malaka
02-26-2009, 07:19 PM
Ramses Barden -Not perennial pro bowler but definitely a couple in his career.

Stafford- Average QB

Mark Sanchez- All-Pro

Josh Freeman- project that never develops

Michael Crabtree- All-Pro

Pat White- An Interesting yet successful NFL career, will help grow the Wildcat, start some games at QB, start mostly as a receiver, used a lot on trick plays, one or two pro bowls, pretty good NFL career.

SeanTaylorRIP
02-26-2009, 07:37 PM
A Late Round/ UDFA RB that will find success as a change-of-pace-back... Tyrell Fenroy - Louisiana Lafayette

A likely UDFA QB that I feel will end up being at least a serviceable backup...
Tyler Lorenzen - Connecticut

Helzz no man, Tyler Lorenzen is an awful QB, he was probably the worst QB in the country. He could run but has a noodle arm, throws floaters with no velocity, and has such a slow release.

phlysac
02-26-2009, 08:02 PM
Helzz no man, Tyler Lorenzen is an awful QB, he was probably the worst QB in the country. He could run but has a noodle arm, throws floaters with no velocity, and has such a slow release.

I never said he'd be great but his arm strength, release, and motion are nearly identical to Matt Leinart, for what that's worth. I think Leinart will be at best a serviceable backup.

Hickman561
02-26-2009, 08:23 PM
my gut is telling me clay matthews might actually be the best USC backer.

I second that

ChezPower4
02-26-2009, 08:36 PM
Pump the brakes on Stafford there...... He's an OK QB prospect IMO, Saying he's the best QB propect that you've ever seen???

Halsey
02-26-2009, 08:42 PM
Pump the brakes on Stafford there...... He's an OK QB prospect IMO, Saying he's the best QB propect that you've ever seen???

Sometimes for laughs I like to go back and look at what people were saying about Matt Ryan on these boards last year:

Need also has to be takin into consideration every year their are teams at the top of the draft board that need QBs wether those QBs deserve a top pick is debateable but I think that matt ryan is not a top 10 pick but i know that he will be takin in the top 10 because of need.

http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20527&highlight=Matt+Ryan

Many of the same people this year are saying Stafford is not a top QB prospect. Maybe that's a good thing for Stafford. :)

princefielder28
02-26-2009, 08:44 PM
Michael Johsnon will be a stud and Vontae Davis will be as successful as his brother

Brent
02-26-2009, 08:47 PM
Drew Willy is going to really outplay his draft position.

Bob Sanders Dreadlock
02-26-2009, 09:58 PM
Stafford- Won't take detroit to a championship game, but will be most successful QB in lions history.

James Laurinaitis- Joins the WWE

Pat White- can't put my finger on what he will do, but people will want to watch it

thetedginnshow
02-26-2009, 10:27 PM
Maclin will be the truth.

ThePudge
02-26-2009, 10:29 PM
Sometimes for laughs I like to go back and look at what people were saying about Matt Ryan on these boards last year:



http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20527&highlight=Matt+Ryan

Many of the same people this year are saying Stafford is not a top QB prospect. Maybe that's a good thing for Stafford. :)

haha I was laughed at when I had Matt Ryan #1 on my Big Board. He had that X-Factor, he had my gut feeling... which as we know, is as close to fact as anything. I was very public about my feelings about Matt Ryan and Matt Forte as NFL prospects... that being said, I had the gut feeling Sam Baker would drop big-time on draft day and be moved inside to Guard, good call for me there ;).

scottyboy
02-26-2009, 10:31 PM
Britt will be ridiculous.

I truly believe that Nicks will bust. dont know why, I truly believe he will...

TheBuffaloBills
02-26-2009, 10:42 PM
Brandon Pettigrew will be nothing special.

Jared Cook will be one of the best playmaking TE in the league along with Chase Coffman.

Mark Sanchez will be J.P. Losman 2.0

Johnny Knox will be one of the best WR in the draft.

Crabtree will be a star

Andre Smith will have a world of talent, but will have terrible off field problems done the line. Bust.

Everette Brown will be one of the best 4-3 DE in the league

Beanie Wells will be amazing in his prime in 4-5 years, but will go downhill after that due to injuries.

Moreno will be a pro bowler.

thule
02-26-2009, 10:50 PM
McCoy will be the first back off the board....not really a big eye opener...but something a lot of people aren't talking about....it'll be a lock likely if his 40 at his pro day is good....but i've felt this way for away.

jballa838
02-26-2009, 10:57 PM
Austin Collie makes the Pro Bowl multiple times in his career. DHB will bust.

Monomach
02-27-2009, 04:41 AM
Going by my gut? Well, ok...

My gut thinks that Mark Sanchez is going to be the regarded as the best player in this draft 10 years from now.

My gut likes Kenny Britt, Phil Loadholt, and Brian Robiskie to have very good careers.

My gut thinks Freeman will be a huge bust and that Detroit will ruin Matt Stafford.

wicket
02-27-2009, 04:48 AM
vontae will bust

OneToughGame
02-27-2009, 05:30 AM
Jarrett Dillard will be a pro bowler more then twice in his career. Probably will have a Wes Welker type impact as a slot receiver.

Sniper
02-27-2009, 08:53 AM
Helzz no man, Tyler Lorenzen is an awful QB, he was probably the worst QB in the country. He could run but has a noodle arm, throws floaters with no velocity, and has such a slow release.

For the last goddamn time, this guy was the worst QB in the country. It's not up for debate.

http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/09Nz2sL99YaWA/610x.jpg

wogitalia
02-27-2009, 09:31 AM
Interesting topic.

Andre Smith - I think Boom, especially if his "issues" cause him to fall and land with a better team. I think Boom regardless, I still see him as the best LT in this draft, I am really high on him.

Michael Oher - Agree with whoever said it, I get the bust vibe, just something that isn't quite right with him. I get a serious "contract year" player feel with him.

Jason Smith - Special, but will struggle early imo. Is a guy who needs a patient team, Detroit in many ways would be ideal, no one expects anything out of them anytime soon.

Eugene Monroe - Solid. Rock solid. Jake Long vibe. I don't think he is ever a star, but I cant see him failing to be honest. Probably the safest pick in the draft imo.

QB - I don't like any as a franchise guy. Freeman reminds me a lot of Flacco last year but I dont think in a good way. Just cant get a read on him. Sanchez needs to land in the right situation and I have no idea what that is, just know he needs it. Stafford needs to sit a year and even then, I just dont get a star vibe, I get the very solid career vibe. Pat White is actually my favourite QB in this draft, but I can't see him playing it and I really dont like him at WR, not the best prospect but he has that passion you want, Im probably the only guy who was very disappointed to see him waiver in his stance on playing something other than QB.

RB - Again, dont like them this year. Wells just never impressed me when I saw him outside his freshman year against Michigan. I kind of see his peak as being similar to what Jamal Lewis was last year. Moreno will be solid but I think he needs to land in the right place, I like him in somewhere like New England or Indy.

WR - DHB I really like, gives me the DRC feel from last year in that he is one of the rare workout warriors who will actually play up to it. Crabtree is a 2nd round value WR for me, not that he isn't talented but there are too many questions for the first round. Maclin and Harvin are both guys who need to land with the right teams or they will bust.

Raji - I get a mediocre feel on him. I don't know why, it's just the feeling I get. He will be a flash player, perpetually taunting the fans of whoever drafts him. One of those guys who will have patches where he dominates and patches where he does nothing.

Curry - Rock solid. Feels overrated to me but he is super talented.

Laurinatis - I really like him. Well I actually hate him, but I see boom. Along with Rey is the guy who is hurting the most from the complete lack of senior QBs this year. If there was a senior QB with legit prospects to cop all the overanalysing this year, Rey and Laurinatis are rated much higher, instead they are the two guys getting analsyed to death.

Rey - See above, Boom, bigtime boom. Better player than Tatupu from the first down.

Maybin - This guy is the flipside guy. As a 4-3 DE he is boom for me. As an OLB he is bust. I struggle to see a middle ground. Minnesota and Chicago are two teams I think he fits ideally with.

Jenkins - Will boom when he moves to FS. If he never moves, I see him being very solid but never elite. I struggle to see him bust out though.

nepg
02-28-2009, 10:14 AM
I like Pettigrew as a prospect, but I get a bad vibe about the guy's career. For some reason (probably Oklahoma State connection), he reminds me of Alonzo Mayes. Obviously, there's no MJ involved with Pettigrew (as far as we know), but from a football standpoint, it just doesn't feel like he'll work out for very long -- same with Mayes.
________
Child nexium (http://www.classactionsettlements.org/lawsuit/nexium/)

the decider13
02-28-2009, 10:56 AM
gut feelings on a couple of propects...

vontae will be a bust. Be lucky to be a nickelback in 5 years.

Kenny Britt will be a stud wr for years

McCoy will be the best RB of the class by far

Rhett Bomar will be a successful NFL starter down the line

Mark Sanchez will do aweful

Raji will be a beast for a long time...Ngata type impact (not as good, but similar impact)'

Curry- Solid but not spectacular, could find a job as a starter on any team

Rey- Boom, I think he is gonna be a man/beast

Maybin-Big time boom, ends up one of the top 5 at his position at some point

Orakpo- Big time bust, just doesnt work well

Jason Smith- Best lineman in the draft, perenial pro bowler


I think thats it


oooo and Stafford will be a stud if Detroit can protect him a little bit. Stafford to CJ has a lot of potential for a long long time.

Halsey
02-28-2009, 11:52 AM
I have a gut feeling that Rhett Bomar could develop into a nice NFL QB. He was a good college player who made some stupid decisions a few years ago, but hasn't gotten into trouble since. Hopefully he learned and got stronger from the adversity. He's a nice talent who might develop into a good pro QB. If my team needed a QB and couldn't get Stafford, he would be a nice pick in the 2nd.

I have a bad gut feeling about Everette Brown. A lot of that has to do with the track history of FSU pass rushers, so maybe I'm being unfair to Brown as an individual prospect, but I can't help it. It's just a gut feeling.

phlysac
02-28-2009, 01:14 PM
My gut feeling is that it is very peculiar that so many people have the same "gut" feelings.

TACKLE
02-28-2009, 01:18 PM
Everette Brown will be an elite pass rusher in the NFL.
Stafford will never live up to his draft selection.

BuddyCHRIST
02-28-2009, 02:40 PM
I forgot about Bomar but I agree I think he will be a starter in the league. Looks like Romo and I think the character issues are overblown.

hockey619
02-28-2009, 02:43 PM
I have a bad gut feeling about Stafford.

Like hes going to go to Detriot, get his *** handed to him for two years with tons of losses and hard hits taken and fall apart ala David Carr. Ive never been a big fan of his cause i didnt think he brought a lot of intangibles to the table, but ive backed off that stance a bit. I dont think hes got the personality and magnitism of a Sanchez but hes got the respect of his teamates and i see him as a bit like Eli in that way, like not the rah rah type but a good leader.

Hes just a little raw and ive got a feeling hes not gunna be given a fair chance to complete his develepment.

Falcon_from_E_Oakland
02-28-2009, 04:50 PM
great thread idea :)


Maualaga - be a very average LB but make enough big hits to still be a media darling. (I know, odd gut feeling but....)


Chris Wells - will be share time in the backfield through his whole career, combo back.


Stafford - will be a top 10 QB but int's will keep him out of the top 5.


Curry - pro bowl rookie


Maclin -solid #2 but nowhere near top 1st round talent

Crabtree - at his peak a top 15 WR in the league, not a fan of this WR class.

EVERETTE BROWN - will be sack machine at olb

ORAKPO - yes hes a physical freak, but doesnt have the moves....bust

Jared Cook - far and away the best TE prospect in this class......match up nightmare


MICHAEL JOHNSON - see orakpo


D. Ellerbe - will have very average rookie campaign, but will explode in his 2nd year.


Sean Smith - I just really like this kid

-

the decider13
03-01-2009, 07:18 PM
Glad to see that other people agree on bomar being a good starter. I watched him in his year at OU and he was the truth. I think him getting kicked off of OU says more about people giving him the no show jobs than bomar's character.

holt_bruce81
03-01-2009, 07:27 PM
Orakpo will go to multiple pro bowls.

Burger
03-01-2009, 08:23 PM
1) All 3 of the elite QB's will bust
2) Aaron Curry will be the next Keith Bulluck
3) Bomar will be above average
4) BJ Raji will be the next Warren Sapp/ John Randle
5) Jarret Dillard will be a #1
6) Cushing will be the best USC linebacker
7) 1 late round runningback will be neat year's Tim Hightower
8) Brown will be a probowl Pass rusher, but Orakpo will be manhandled by big Walter Jones
9) Alex Mack has Canton written all over him.