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View Full Version : Common Draft Mistakes (Risk & Reward)


Highagain
04-18-2009, 12:58 PM
Mayock & Casserly Discuss Risk & Reward (http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80fd148f)

Very interesting dicussion. Here are some common draft mistakes they touched on:

Force a player up by need. It is often done subconsciously. Emphasize good aspects of prospect and downplay bad aspects. Backwards rationalization. Also rationalize by saying they won't be able to get that position later in the draft.

Emphasize "flashes". Anybody can look good on a 4 minute highlight tape. Guys can also flash good technique, speed, awareness, etc. However, it's a completely different thing to do those things consistently. Need to look at the whole body of work and not just emphasize the flashes.

Misleading workout numbers. Speed, strength, athleticism, etc. on the field is completely different than what workouts measure. Prospects often get big boosts to their stock because they post impressive combine results or their stock takes a big hit because of subpar results. Measure speed, strength, athleticism, etc. based on tape first, then use workout numbers to verify. If workouts are better than what tape shows, disregard (players are training for a track meet, doesn't necessarily translate to field). If workouts are worse than what tape shows, take a closer look to see why that is.

Not accounting for risk of injuries. Guys with chronic injuries should be moved down boards considerably or taken off all together. Prospects who are constantly missing practice or games will be a burden to the team. High picks with a lot of guaranteed money should have no injury concerns because the risk is simply too high. Can take risk after the big money picks, but do not be afraid to pass on an elite talent at the top of the draft if he has injury concerns.

Not accounting for off-the-field concerns. Selling drugs, using hard drugs, multiple failed drug tests, or abuse of women should remove a player from the draft board. Also, too much "stuff" should remove them as well. That means if you're constantly hearing their name in the news because they're getting caught up in something, don't draft them because it will be a constant headache.

Any thoughts on these points? Anybody you think has a good chance of being overdrafted or a bust based on this criteria?

Eben Britton, Brian Crushing, Vontae Davis, Percy Harvin, and Michael Johnson are guys that immediately come to mind.

Matthew Jones
04-18-2009, 01:27 PM
I'd think of these guys as people who for the most part will not receive first round grades from me but have been getting overrated places:

Percy Harvin
William Beatty
Robert Ayers
Michael Johnson
Peria Jerry
Brian Cushing (probably an exception)
Connor Barwin

Babylon
04-18-2009, 03:53 PM
I'd think of these guys as people who for the most part will not receive first round grades from me but have been getting overrated places:

Percy Harvin
William Beatty
Robert Ayers
Michael Johnson
Peria Jerry
Brian Cushing (probably an exception)
Connor Barwin

Except for Johnson i'll take them all starting about the middle of round 1 and you can have your choice of the rest.:)