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OTS
04-26-2009, 01:10 AM
As you can tell by my post count, I do not post very often, and as a result of time constraints due to grad school obligations I do not have the time needed to follow all of the draft prospects like some of you do. However, I do follow SEC football very closely, and to that end I wanted to add a few thoughts on some of the players I've followed closely over the past several years:

* I'm simply not a fan of the Stafford pick, and I fail to see his upside. Yes he does have a huge arm, but I've struggled to find many positives with him aside from that. His accuracy is not overly special, his decision-making is quite often bad, his pocket presence isn't the greatest, and now he is going to be stick in an almost impossible situation with arguably the worst organization in all of professional sports. And as a closing point, I'd like to add that I've never put any real merit in the notion that if you don't have a franchise quarterback, don't pass on one. That is, of course, true to an extent -- if we are discussing true franchise quarterbacks, like a Peyton Manning -- but that does not necessarily mean you select who is generally regarded as the best quarterback prospect in a particular draft class, if you do not have a proven star quarterback. Being generally considered as the top prospect in a particular draft class does not mean you are a franchise quarterback, or that you even have a particularly good chance of becoming one.

* The Tyson Jackson selection at #3 was a bit perplexing to me. He was a good defender at LSU, but he was always surrounded by a ton of talent -- every LSU starting defensive lineman for years on end now has ended up in the NFL -- and his production was never anything overly special. The guy has racked up all of eight sacks over his past twenty-six games at LSU, and while I fully understand that the SEC has a high level of competition, a lot of those sacks came against the East Popcorn States of the world and the bottom of the barrel in terms of SEC offensive tackles. I find it particularly telling that in the Alabama and Ole Miss games of 2008, where those two teams combined to throw over 60 passes, Jackson had a grand total of zero sacks and zero hurries. I don't necessarily think it's a terrible pick, mind you, and I imagine that Jackson turns into a pretty solid player for the Chiefs, but I do not see him performing to the level that will justify the 30+ million he will be guaranteed.

* From the outset, in the interests of full disclosure, I will say that I am an Alabama graduate, but with that said... I liked the pick of Andre Smith at #6. I know his past couple of months were terrible by any measurement, but he was a great kid the three years prior to that, and he was absolutely dominant. I do think he'll be a good left tackle in the NFL, but even if not there I still see him being a very high quality player somewhere. I think he could play right tackle if needed, and he could be a great guard with his run-blocking abilities as well. Call me a homer if you wish, but I have a hard time seeing Andre Smith not make a pretty big contribution somewhere.

* Knowshown Moreno was a pick I completely did not get at #12, and at this stage if I'm a Broncos' fan I am seriously questioning the competence of Josh McDaniels. I think Moreno could be a pretty good player in the NFL, but frankly I never saw anything out of him that would justify the massive amount of hype that the CBS sports team put on him every single week. To hear Verne Lundquist tell it, he was the logical extension of the likes of Herschel Walker and Bo Jackson, and I just never saw it. Besides, this one was a head-scratcher to me just because I believe the Broncos could have gotten Moreno even while trading down, just at a lower price tag with more picks in the end.

* Robert Ayers had a great senior season, and every single Alabama offensive lineman this season said that they had more trouble handling Ayers than any other player they faced all season long. I know that consistency is the big issue with him, but if the Broncos can get him to play like he did this past season in Knoxville, this one will be a very big steal for the Broncos.

* Percy Harvin is a bit of a reach to me, but oddly the pick makes perfect sense to me. Harvin is no doubt an elite athlete, and arguably the best pure skill athlete in the draft, but he does have some injury concerns in the past, the failed drug test, and several other character issues in the background. Moreover, at least of what I saw of the Gators the past three years, most of the big plays Harvin made seemingly came out of the backfield, and not as a receiver. In the long-term, I think he's just a really risky product. On the other hand, if you are Brad Childress, who cares about the long term? He's fighting to stave off a pink slip, and Harvin's explosiveness in space can really help out a team that is probably guaranteed to see more eight man fronts than any other team in the league.

* Michael Oher seemed to be a very good fit with the Ravens, and from a personality perspective it just seems to me that he fits in perfectly with the Ravens organization. Either way, you cannot help but be overjoyed for him. If you cannot pull for this guy, something is wrong.

* Peria Jerry might not be a superstar in the NFL, but he is a pick that I really like. He moves well laterally, and is very stout against the run, but he can also give you a bit of a pass rushing presence on the inside. Again, I'm not sure he'll be a superstar, but as the #24 pick to a team that clearly needs to address their run defense, I think it's a great value pick.

Texas Homer
04-26-2009, 01:22 AM
I was surprised the Lions did not take Oher with their 2nd 1st round pick.

farfromforgotten
04-26-2009, 02:22 AM
...And as a closing point, I'd like to add that I've never put any real merit in the notion that if you don't have a franchise quarterback, don't pass on one. That is, of course, true to an extent -- if we are discussing true franchise quarterbacks, like a Peyton Manning -- but that does not necessarily mean you select who is generally regarded as the best quarterback prospect in a particular draft class, if you do not have a proven star quarterback. Being generally considered as the top prospect in a particular draft class does not mean you are a franchise quarterback, or that you even have a particularly good chance of becoming one.

So what do you believe the Lions should have done? What QB in college right now do you believe will be labeled as a Manning type - cant miss - franchise QB? Bradford? McCoy? Snead? I'd say no. And if you want to wait even further than that what are the chances that the Lions would finish with the #1 pick that year and be in position to even draft that QB? All it takes is having 1 more win than another team.

There is no guarantee with any prospect coming out of college. Not even when Peyton Manning came out. There just isnt, so I never buy that argument.

BlindSite
04-26-2009, 03:01 AM
Stafford was the pick of the litter QB wise and he would've been my pick, I wouldn't have let Oher get passed my 2nd first if I were in charge.

Based on who came off and when Detroit could've had a starting QB (stafford), DE(brown) and OT(oher) in their first three picks and instead they have a QB, TE and Safety.

Realistically Detroit could have taken the three I listed and got Johnson tomorrow with the opening 3rd rounder and been far better off IMO than they are at the moment.

McBain
04-26-2009, 03:33 AM
Cool story, bro. I really enjoyed your preface.

Scotty D
04-26-2009, 03:43 AM
Stafford was the pick of the litter QB wise and he would've been my pick, I wouldn't have let Oher get passed my 2nd first if I were in charge.

Based on who came off and when Detroit could've had a starting QB (stafford), DE(brown) and OT(oher) in their first three picks and instead they have a QB, TE and Safety.

Realistically Detroit could have taken the three I listed and got Johnson tomorrow with the opening 3rd rounder and been far better off IMO than they are at the moment.

Cliff Avril is going to be big for us. Brown wouldn't make an impact. We drafted 3 starters that were ranked #1 at their position by Scott.

Oher fell kind of far for a reason, look at the other teams that passed.

LizardState
04-26-2009, 09:42 AM
I agree 100% about Andre Smith, I went to Alabama too. The Outland trophy award is not a beauty contest, & I would think any NFL team would want their #1 pick OLT to have an attitude if he's taking on the best speedrushers in the business on 3rd & long.

I also liked the Oher pick to B-more, he was a steal for them to protect Flacco's big arm from the blindside.

CC.SD
04-26-2009, 11:02 AM
Ze draft, eet ees not over!

wogitalia
04-26-2009, 12:11 PM
Really liked the Andre Smith pick, though not a good place to land as the Bengals really lack leadership and I think he just needs someone who will inspire him to stay working. Talent wise, I have no doubts that he is the best LT and I really like Jason Smith as a human and prospect. Eugene is that rock solid guy that will slip under the radar, but I think he is the 3rd best prospect.

As for the Lions, I'm a big fan of their draft so far. Stafford was a pick they had to make, I dont see any QB prospect over the next 2 years that is any better than him, certainly not next year where I can't see a first round grade QB. Stafford has the tools. Now I think Oher would have been a better pick with the 2nd first, but Pettigrew is just about the next best thing, they got their QB and they got him his security blanket. With CJ as a deep and Pettigrew a safety valve, it should make the NFL adjustment as good as they can behind what was never going to be a good line. Delmas is a good safety prospect, with great intangibles, that means they got their leader on both sides of the ball, I think Laurinaitis, Maualaga and Delmas are the 3 guys they had to pick from and that they couldn't go wrong on any of them.

LizardState
04-26-2009, 12:36 PM
Here's an interesting trend I noticed from going over my draft sheet of the 1st two rds: did you know 4 of the 1st 42 players drafted have an NFL father or brother? It's true, the pedigree gives visibility to scouts :


Pick #25 - Vontae Davis CB to the Fins -- His brother is 9ers TE Vernon Davis
#26 - LB Clay Matthews to the Packers -- His father & uncle played in the NFL
#36 - WR Brian Robiskie to the Browns -- His father was also an NFL WR
#42 - DB Jarius Byrd to the Patriots -- His father was SD Chargers DB Gill Byrd


That's almost one out of ten players in this draft with NFL bloodlines.

Nationally we're basically a country of family businesses, & for some families, fb is the family business.

the decider13
04-26-2009, 12:48 PM
any iowa fans know anything about seth olsen?

Race for the Heisman
04-26-2009, 10:34 PM
Here's an interesting trend I noticed from going over my draft sheet of the 1st two rds: did you know 4 of the 1st 42 players drafted have an NFL father or brother? It's true, the pedigree gives visibility to scouts :


Pick #25 - Vontae Davis CB to the Fins -- His brother is 9ers TE Vernon Davis
#26 - LB Clay Matthews to the Packers -- His father & uncle played in the NFL
#36 - WR Brian Robiskie to the Browns -- His father was also an NFL WR
#42 - DB Jarius Byrd to the Patriots -- His father was SD Chargers DB Gill Byrd


That's almost one out of ten players in this draft with NFL bloodlines.

Nationally we're basically a country of family businesses, & for some families, fb is the family business.

Aaron Curry's father, Reggie Pinkney, played safety for Baltimore (when they were still the Colts) and Detroit.

Some other players who have had relatives (including cousins) playing in the league are:

- Rashad Jennings
- Conredge Collins
- Brandon Gibson
- Chase Coffman
- Cecil Newton Jr.
- Peria Jerry
- Jarron Gilbert
- Darius Butler
- Londen Fryar

BigBanger
04-26-2009, 11:20 PM
I also liked the Oher pick to B-more, he was a steal for them to protect Flacco's big arm from the blindside.
Flacco is a right hander. He wont be protecting his blind side. Jared Gaither is already doing that, and at a Pro Bowl level. Oher is going to be their RT.

That's how NFL teams viewed him. That's why the Lions passed on him. If he was a LT, they would have taken him. Oher will be a RT and he'll solidify that line making the Ravens offensive line one of the best in all of football.

RCAChainGang
04-27-2009, 01:08 AM
I also follow SEC football, OTS

I agree with you thoughts there bud.

LizardState
04-27-2009, 08:54 AM
pls delete post

LizardState
04-27-2009, 08:56 AM
Aaron Curry's father, Reggie Pinkney, played safety for Baltimore (when they were still the Colts) and Detroit.

Some other players who have had relatives (including cousins) playing in the league are:

- Rashad Jennings
- Conredge Collins
- Brandon Gibson
- Chase Coffman
- Cecil Newton Jr.
- Peria Jerry
- Jarron Gilbert
- Darius Butler
- Londen Fryar

Thanks to RftH for the enhancement. I knew about 3rd-rounder Jarron Gilbert's NFL pedigree, his father Daren was at his San Jose St. Pro Day workout when I interviewed him, his father is like 6-7 & 350 pounds & is an ex-NO Saints o-lineman. Darius Butler too? He went 1 pick ahead of Byrd. I knew there was a reason I marked him on the rds. 1 & 2 draft sheet with highlighter for this post, I thought I was too drunk by the 2nd rd. & had made a mistake but the ESPN crew pointed out his bloodline as well. That makes 5 of the 1st 42 players drafted with the NFL pedigree, so that's more than 10% of this draft, probably a new league rcd.

Race for the Heisman
04-27-2009, 11:26 AM
Thanks to RftH for the enhancement. I knew about 3rd-rounder Jarron Gilbert's NFL pedigree, his father Daren was at his San Jose St. Pro Day workout when I interviewed him, his father is like 6-7 & 350 pounds & is an ex-NO Saints o-lineman. Darius Butler too? He went 1 pick ahead of Byrd. I knew there was a reason I marked him on the rds. 1 & 2 draft sheet with highlighter for this post, I thought I was too drunk by the 2nd rd. & had made a mistake but the ESPN crew pointed out his bloodline as well. That makes 5 of the 1st 42 players drafted with the NFL pedigree, so that's more than 10% of this draft, probably a new league rcd.

Darius Butler is cousins with Willis McGahee, so it's a little different. Peria Jerry is the same story (two cousins - Eddie Strong, Dwayne Rudd - not quite on the same level as the others).

JHG722
04-27-2009, 12:35 PM
Aaron Curry's father, Reggie Pinkney, played safety for Baltimore (when they were still the Colts) and Detroit.

Some other players who have had relatives (including cousins) playing in the league are:

- Rashad Jennings
- Conredge Collins
- Brandon Gibson
- Chase Coffman
- Cecil Newton Jr.
- Peria Jerry
- Jarron Gilbert
- Darius Butler
- Londen Fryar

And my dude, WR/KR Travis Shelton who was signed as an UDFA by the Broncos is Devin Hester's cousin :)

OTS
04-29-2009, 01:29 PM
So what do you believe the Lions should have done? What QB in college right now do you believe will be labeled as a Manning type - cant miss - franchise QB? Bradford? McCoy? Snead? I'd say no. And if you want to wait even further than that what are the chances that the Lions would finish with the #1 pick that year and be in position to even draft that QB? All it takes is having 1 more win than another team.

There is no guarantee with any prospect coming out of college. Not even when Peyton Manning came out. There just isnt, so I never buy that argument.

Well, I think what you are saying makes sense, but only if you accept the argument that the only way you can get the QB you need is by selecting one very high in the draft (the top five, at least, and perhaps a bit higher). If you accept that argument, then Stafford probably makes sense because there is no guarantee you will find yourself in that situation again in the near future, i.e. holding a top five pick with a big-time QB you really want.

However, the problem I have is that I just do not see where that argument holds merit. I think this whole notion of a "franchise" quarterback gets entirely too much play... useless labels notwithstanding, what you really need is a good, accurate quarterback who can post good production over the course of many years (and obviously, as an aside, the ability to stay healthy is a prerequisite for that).

Of course, though, there is really no evidence that you need to take a QB in the top five, or first overall, like the Lions did with Stafford in order to be able to find that caliber of quarterback. In fact, if you go through and look at most of the NFL's top quarterbacks, the overwhelming majority of them came later in the draft. For example, let's look at those quarterbacks in 2008 who finished in the top 15 in Football Outsiders in DYAR, and see where those quarterbacks were drafted:

(1) Drew Brees: 2nd round
(2) Peyton Manning: #1 overall
(3) Philip Rivers: #4 overall
(4) Kurt Warner: Undrafted free agent
(5) Jay Cutler: #11 overall
(6) Chad Pennington: #18 overall
(7) Matt Ryan: #3 overall
(8) Donovan McNabb: #12 overall
(9) Eli Manning: #1 overall
(10) Aaron Rodgers: #24 overall
(11) Tony Romo: Undrafted free agent
(12) Matt Schaub: Late 3rd round
(13) Jake Delhomme: Undrafted free agent
(14) David Garrard: 4th round
(15) Kerry Collins: #5 overall

As you can see, only five of the top fifteen QB's last year were drafted in the top ten, and one of those guys (Kerry Collins) is far from a ringing endorsement for selecting quarterbacks high. Moreover, there are just as many quarterbacks in the top fifteen who were drafted in the second round or lower. Meanwhile, this is happening against the backdrop of players like Mike Vick, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, Alex Smith, and Vince Young -- all of which should be near the peak of their careers now -- either being in prison, complete busts, or seemingly on their way to being busts. And that is not even beginning to hit on other late round gems like Matt Hasselbeck and Tom Brady.

I just do not see why you would take Stafford. If I could get him at 15th, then yes I would have, but I just do not see giving a player like him 40+ million dollars and betting the entire fate of my franchise and my career on him. You just cannot afford to miss in a situation like that, and history just tells us that is such a high probability at that position that I do not think I could pull the trigger. I know that, like you mentioned, even a guy like Peyton Manning was not a lock, but it's not necessarily an either-or question. Manning was not a lock, but I do not think you would find anyone who would argue that he was not an immeasurably safer pick than someone like Stafford.

As for what I would have done, I would have taken Aaron Curry at a premium discount. The biggest problem I had with taking him was giving 40 million guaranteed to someone who does not play a money position, but with him willing to sign for what Long did last year, that is no longer an issue.

As a result, I would have signed Curry #1 overall at the discount, taken Michael Oher at #19, and then taken Everette Brown at #33 to improve the non-existent pass rush. For a quarterback, I would have taken either Stephen McGee or Rhett Bomar in the fourth round. I would have bet that by moving Backus back inside to guard, with Oher and Cherilus at the tackle position and Megatron to throw to on the outside, that a guy like Culpepper or Stanton could be at least relatively viable at the QB position right now, while I tried to develop either Stanton or McGee / Bomar moving forward. And if I didn't like how it was working out, I think the odds are very good that I would have a high enough of a draft pick in 2010 to possibly take a crack at Bradford, Tebow, Snead, et al.

Babylon
04-29-2009, 01:38 PM
any iowa fans know anything about seth olsen?

We have a bigtime Iowa honk on here that will sing his praises but from what i've seen of him and what Denver does with offensive linemen he'll play for 10 years and might make a pro bowl someday.