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zinna
05-04-2009, 03:53 PM
Hi,

This is the first draft I have followed and there is alot of talk about someone being good value in whatever round and so on. My question is what you consider to be good value for a pick in the middle of round 1,2,3,4-5 and 6-7.

For example your answer could look like this

Mid round 1 pick: Solid starter for at least 8 years
Mid round 2 pick: Average starter for at least 6 years
Mid round 3 pick: Average starter or solid backup for at least 6 years
Round 4-5 pick: Average backup and good special teamer
Round 6-7 pick: Average backup or solid special teamer

What im trying to find out is what you could expect from a certain draft pick when they retire some years down the road.

sbh15
05-04-2009, 04:26 PM
You want a first rounder to be at least a worthy Pro Bowler a couple of times.

A second rounder is more of a solid starter for a while, a 3rd you want at least average.

Look at the players going in the mid-first round. Larry English, Percy Harvin, Josh Freeman - all are risky picks with huge ceilings. Teams aren't taking these guys thinking "oh, hopefully they'll be solid for 8 years", they're taking them thinking "if this kid pans out, he could be something special that we remember long after he's gone".

Matthew Jones
05-04-2009, 04:51 PM
1st - Pro Bowler
2nd - Quality starter
3rd - Average starter
4th/5th - Quality backup
6th/7th - Quality special teamer

pr0d1gy
05-04-2009, 05:13 PM
Good value, in relation to a draft pick, has nothing to do with how they perform in the NFL. In fact, when we say a pick has good value that means that the player was rated higher than where your team picked him. For instance, this year Ray Mualuaga (sp?) was slated to be a mid to late first round pick. The Bengals picked him in the second round, thus making that a good value pick for that team because they got him a decent amount later than everyone thought he would go.

There are many different factors that can go into calling someone a good value, but this should give the info you need going forward. You should be able to figure the rest out.

CC.SD
05-04-2009, 05:17 PM
1st - Pro Bowler
2nd - Quality starter
3rd - Average starter
4th/5th - Quality backup
6th/7th - Quality special teamer

This is good, probably can't ask for a more concise or accurate description IMO.

Any of the later rounds could include boom-or-bust type flyers, as well, or just developmental players in general.

zinna
05-04-2009, 05:41 PM
Good value, in relation to a draft pick, has nothing to do with how they perform in the NFL. In fact, when we say a pick has good value that means that the player was rated higher than where your team picked him. For instance, this year Ray Mualuaga (sp?) was slated to be a mid to late first round pick. The Bengals picked him in the second round, thus making that a good value pick for that team because they got him a decent amount later than everyone thought he would go.

There are many different factors that can go into calling someone a good value, but this should give the info you need going forward. You should be able to figure the rest out.

I understand this but the important part is still how they perform in the NFL, if Rey sucks big time and leaves the NFL after 3 years its obv bad value no matter what we thought before the draft

pr0d1gy
05-04-2009, 05:44 PM
I understand this but the important part is still how they perform in the NFL, if Rey sucks big time and leaves the NFL after 3 years its obv bad value no matter what we thought before the draft

Yes, but you are asking what good value means in a draft forum, so I have laid out the answer for you a plain and detailed manner. If you want to know what good value means on a draft forum, then just look at the lengthy description i wrote for you. That is exactly what we mean when we say "good value" when discussing the draft, drafted players, and picks made during the draft.

initial_flo
05-04-2009, 07:14 PM
I understand this but the important part is still how they perform in the NFL, if Rey sucks big time and leaves the NFL after 3 years its obv bad value no matter what we thought before the draft

Nah all value has to do with is, reach vs getting a guy late then expected. Prodigy is exactly right, it all has to do with draft day itself and picking the players themselves and the ratings.

You take Rey at 37, when he was perceived as a 15-25 guy is a 'good value'. [Because you got him later then expected.]

You take Mike Mitchell at 47 when he was a perceived 7th rounder and that is a 'poor value'. [Because you could have gotten him later or someone else better rated at the time.]

Beyond the draft the draft it's more of a boom/bust type deal. Like the Maualuga example in the quote.



[Now that I said all that, value technically means nothing. No one can tell the future and the worst value ever could turn into Jesus on the football field.]

zinna
05-05-2009, 05:20 AM
Ok, I might have asked the wrong the question then.

If you are running a team, what are you hoping for with a draft pick. Same picks as earlier.

BigBanger
05-05-2009, 05:39 AM
Ok, I might have asked the wrong the question then.

If you are running a team, what are you hoping for with a draft pick. Same picks as earlier.
No, it's not the wrong question and there is no right answer even though you have a couple of responses that believe there is. What is good value? Teams and people are going to see Robert Ayers at 18 and say it was one of the best value picks in the draft. Why? Because he's the best defensive player in this class. Does everyone agree with that? No.

Good value is a term coined by talking heads that means next to nothing. Was Rey good value? Michael Johnson good value? No, they weren't because they kind of suck, but since their profiles are so big, people assume it's good value without realizing that they dropped for a reason.

What is good value? It's all in the eyes of the person who values the player in question. There is no consensus. Alex Smith was terrible value in 2005. Atrocious value. So wasn't Joey Harrington. DHB was terrible value this year.

BigBanger
05-05-2009, 05:44 AM
If you are running a team, what are you hoping for with a draft pick. Same picks as earlier.
A top 10 pick should be a franchise player. An Adrian Peterson, a Calvin Johnson or a Joe Thomas.

A first rounder should be a starter that plays for a long time and has a successful career. Pro Bowl caliber that's regarded as one of the best players at his position.

A second round pick should be a starter as well that sees similar success to a first rounder.

A third round pick should be a starter, but not necessarily a Pro Bowl player. If you have a hole at RB, and you take a RB in round 3, you should feel as though you have filled that need. Are you getting a star? You shouldn't expect it, but you should find a productive player.

Rounds 4 through 7 range from rotational guys (Round 4) and backups (Round 4) to special teams guys (Round 5) all the way to projects that have little chance of seeing or making your team (Rounds 6 and 7).

Anyone who looks at a teams picks in round 6 and 7 and talks about value needs their head checked, because you're talking about a majority of guys that will never make an NFL roster.

zinna
05-05-2009, 08:06 AM
A top 10 pick should be a franchise player. An Adrian Peterson, a Calvin Johnson or a Joe Thomas.

A first rounder should be a starter that plays for a long time and has a successful career. Pro Bowl caliber that's regarded as one of the best players at his position.

A second round pick should be a starter as well that sees similar success to a first rounder.

A third round pick should be a starter, but not necessarily a Pro Bowl player. If you have a hole at RB, and you take a RB in round 3, you should feel as though you have filled that need. Are you getting a star? You shouldn't expect it, but you should find a productive player.

Rounds 4 through 7 range from rotational guys (Round 4) and backups (Round 4) to special teams guys (Round 5) all the way to projects that have little chance of seeing or making your team (Rounds 6 and 7).

Anyone who looks at a teams picks in round 6 and 7 and talks about value needs their head checked, because you're talking about a majority of guys that will never make an NFL roster.

Thx, This is what I was looking for

foozball
05-06-2009, 02:50 AM
I understand this but the important part is still how they perform in the NFL, if Rey sucks big time and leaves the NFL after 3 years its obv bad value no matter what we thought before the draft

no. rey in the 2nd is good value no matter what. he was a potential top 10 pick dating back to last year and the bengals got him in the 2nd round. 5 years from now even if he sucks, he was still a good value in relation to where they drafted him

Crickett
05-06-2009, 03:15 AM
You want a first rounder to be at least a worthy Pro Bowler a couple of times.

Eh, for the mid to late first, I think that's asking a bit much. Case in point, i don't expect Dustin Keller to ever be a pro bowler for the Jets, but I do expect him to be a very good starting tight end. Some other examples I would cite any #2 running back or any right tackle drafted in the first round. There have been maybe 3 right tackles this decade who have made it to the pro bowl. How many running back duos have made it to the pro bowl recently?

zinna
05-06-2009, 05:00 AM
no. rey in the 2nd is good value no matter what. he was a potential top 10 pick dating back to last year and the bengals got him in the 2nd round. 5 years from now even if he sucks, he was still a good value in relation to where they drafted him

This cant be right, this is not a madden fantasy draft where a 98 player in the second round is obv a steal because he will preform as a 98 player. Even though everyone thought Rey would go earlier and there for right now is good value he cant be considered good value in 5 years if he sucked for all 5 years.

Am I the only one who thinks like this?