toonsterwu
03-08-2007, 10:42 AM
Quick One round, no trade. Wasn’t planning on doing another mock until the heavy part of free agency was over, but since this is a very lazy week, I decided to post the rough first round of mine so far. A lot likely will change, and potentially real soon.
1. Oakland Raiders
It’s getting awful close, as for once, I’m not dead sold on the Russell pick. Calvin Johnson is pushing hard … but at the end of the day, I think, for now, the nod is still Russell.
Pick: QB Jamarcus Russell, LSU
2. Detroit Lions
Based on their current offseason additions, the nod here goes to Calvin Johnson. They have options at OT, RB, DE now. Sure, if they move any of the players or sign someone (say Kevin Curtis), then the dynamics shift. But they need another WR.
Pick: WR Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech
3. Cleveland Browns
The indications prior to my leaving the country had shifted back towards Joe Thomas again, and that’s the nod here for now. It very well could be Peterson, but I’d look for them to add a RB later to develop behind Lewis. They do seem to be trying to shore up their OL.
Pick: OT Joe Thomas, Wisconsin
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
CJ is off the board. As such, as tempting as Quinn may be, they look to fix that defense. A dominant edge guy like Gaines Adams might entice, but the instinct goes back to Okoye, who Gruden seemed to fall in love with at the Senior Bowl, and because a dominant interior player is more important than a dominant edge player in the scheme, so if they view Okoye as a dominant 3-tech, his value, IMO, is higher.
Pick: DT Amobi Okoye, Louisville
5. Arizona Cardinals
There’s no Joe Thomas on the board, and Levi Brown likely won’t be high enough to warrant such a selection. As such, they look elsewhere. While Laron Landry may tempt, Gaines Adams is too good to pass up here, as his combine work largely exceeded expectations and sewed up a top 5 grade.
Pick: DE Gaines Adams, Clemson
6. Washington Redskins
We’ll have to see how the Denver issue plays out. The pick will likely be on the DL, as long has been expected. Okoye and Adams would be guys they have interest in. Carriker is a guy that can be a base end for them and slide inside on pass-rushing downs, addressing 2 key needs for them last year, especially if they end up releasing Renaldo Wynn for more cap space.
Pick: DL Adam Carriker, Nebraska
7. Minnesota Vikings
While WR is their biggest need, the values here are iffy. Landry’s dominant workout potentially sews up a top 10 spot for him, and they could use a potentially dominant safety in the scheme, which they currently lack. Ends may garner attention, but with Adams off the board, I don’t see it.
Pick: S Laron Landry, LSU
8. Houston Texans
The growing nod has been towards Quinn. They do need a QB of the future, and Quinn could very well be that. Being in a tough division, the leadership has some leeway to develop a QB. Look for Sage Rosenfels (or another veteran) to play the role of Jake Plummer (very well could be Jake Plummer himself if something can get worked out with Tampa Bay) and Brady Quinn to play the role of Jay Cutler last year for Denver.
Pick: QB Brady Quinn, Notre Dame
9. Miami Dolphins
Toughest top 10 pick to figure so far. Largely because, are they resetting , which if they are, as some suggest, would merit a surprise based on Huzienga’s proclivity to a win now philosophy? Or are they simply clearing out some contracts? The guess is
thus based on a measure of team need, Mueller’s history at the top of the draft, and the potential Cameron inclinations based on affiliation, along with the coordinators potential preferences. Not sure what the fans really want here, although I think Finfan prefers Branch. While Mueller does have a history of drafting DL early, the bulk of the moves seem geared towards pass rushers. Furthermore, a cursory glance of recent Capers history leads me to think that Branch is not an ideal 5-tech/3-4 DE fit for him, and the pedigree of Cameron leads me to somewhat wonder if he would make that move. No other DL talent warrants such a high pick, and the signing of Porter, while not completely removing a rush backer off the board, likely pushes it down a bit. Safety isn’t likely in the first round, but CB is a possibility, even though I personally wouldn’t go that route. Offensively, they could use a WR, and while I like Dwayne Bowe a lot, as well as Ted Ginn Jr., neither one really is great value here, although Bowe could fit their needs. Meachem might work his way here … but I don’t think he’s an ideal system fit, and an ideal skill need. RB is a no, and with Quinn off, QB lacks value. OL and TE could merit value. At the end, I’m looking at a threesome of Leon Hall, Greg Olsen, and Levi Brown. Tough call, but the nod here, for now, goes to CB Leon Hall.
Pick: CB Leon Hall, Michigan
10. Atlanta Falcons
They could use help on the lines, and in the secondary. Reggie Nelson and Chris Houston aren’t bad values here; they aren’t great values either. Levi Brown is a thought, and Alan Branch and a couple ends could draw consideration. If Adrian Peterson is on the board, though, they won’t pass. I should also state, if I was doing trades, someone would’ve moved up to secure Peterson already. I think it’s possible Peterson falls out of the top 5, but I think someone would move up to secure his services, and a team from 6-9 would likely have moved down.
Pick: RB Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma
11. San Francisco 49ers
I already know that the majority of Niners fans won’t like the pick. I will first off say, if Adam Carriker was here, he would draw long consideration. Gut feeling right now is they prefer to land Laron Landry, and they may move up to try and get him, as they have additional ammo. Yes, they could use DL help, but personally
a) I’m not sold that it’s a 11th overall pressing need
b) I’m not sold Alan Branch is a fit.
Maybe I’m dead wrong on Branch as a fit, but I don’t see him as a fit for Nolan and Manusky. That said, Nolan does have ties to Baltimore, which was able to utilize Ngata at DE, but they also have a stronger defensive core around to push Ngata to play hard. It’s possible that Branch is the nod, but I don’t buy it for now. So what’s next? There’s S, where Reggie Nelson is decent value. An inside backer might draw consideration, but arguably, it’s still a bit high for that. So yes, Niners fans can go ahead and boo, but the nod goes to Dwayne Bowe, as I still fully believe a lead receiver is a key need for Alex Smith to develop (you can be a run first team, but your QB is still the most important cog in that offense long run), and they lack the weapons around to help him. I don’t see, say, Meachem because, well, they have Meachem in Ashley Lelie. I don’t see Ted Ginn Jr. on account of fit. If Landry is within range, though, I believe they make the move up, but this is a no-trader.
Pick: WR Dwayne Bowe, LSU
12. Buffalo Bills
The impending move of Willis McGahee means that RB is a need. Sure, they could land a veteran to start this year, but that would only be as a placeholder. Yes, they have other needs, such as LB and CB, but there’s enough depth to address that later. No, I don’t see Branch as a fit for them, but that’s me. WR is a peripheral thought, because RB would rate higher on the offensive charts if there was a need. The nod goes to Marshawn Lynch, who could be really good with how Fairchild would ostensibly like his offense to look.
Pick: RB Marshawn Lynch, California
13. St. Louis Rams
They’ve made two really nice additions in Drew Bennett and James Hall. Not only are they sound talents (and in Hall, great value for what they gave up), they filled key needs offering them flexibility in the draft. LB and DT could draw consideration, but with Witherspoon likely to be back in the middle again, unless it’s a huge bluff, the nod goes to Alan Branch here for now. They try again at DT, hoping that Branch is everything that Jimmy Kennedy was thought to potentially be. They could certainly use the run-stuffing help.
Pick: DT Alan Branch, Michigan
14. Carolina Panthers
No significant losses … but no significant additions so far. This is a critical year for John Fox, and they have several areas of need. Gut feeling is that, while they won’t go into the year depending on Dan Morgan, his restructure likely pushes LB down a bit. CB is a no, and DT is a no. DE could warrant consideration here, as could safety. Offensively, TE could use a look, now that Henning is gone, and Levi Brown could garner some consideration. A WR might also draw interest, but the depth at WR, combined with what their actual needs are, may push it back a little. Those seem to be the first round options, especially since QB value is likely off. The chic pick seems to be Greg Olsen, and he is certainly a consideration. I think Jamaal Anderson and Reggie Nelson could draw looks, and as noted, Levi Brown. Olsen is awfully tempting, but in the end, the nod here goes to Jamaal Anderson, as a dominant DL to work with the secondary is the cornerstone behind their success, and with the surrounding talent, Anderson could have success. I’m not huge on Anderson, as I think he’s been somewhat overrated and was too hit or miss, but with the surrounding talent here, he could be good. Safety can be looked later, and OL isn’t pressing, as health is the most critical aspect.
Pick: DE Jamaal Anderson, Arkansas
15. Pittsburgh Steelers
Tomlin has done a fairly solid job of hiding his plans, throwing a bunch of names out there into the wind. That said, there are several areas which seem more likely. OL could use another piece. Kendall Simmons could slide to center, opening up a spot at guard, or they could look for a center and keep Simmons put. Best guess is Simmons moves to guard. They seem to like Willie Colon a lot. While Levi Brown may get considered, I think they wait on the OL. Another WR would be nice … but it’s not a top of the draft need. Thus, the pick likely is one defense. DL value is iffy, so they are likely looking at LB value, or CB. Depth of CB could make them wait … but Houston could garner consideration. At the end of the day, long run, Tomlin likely moves to a 4-3, and with corner depth, I don’t see it here. The nod goes to LB, and in particular, an edge guy. They clearly need pass rushing help, and Jarvis Moss should top the list here. Yes, he has his flaws, but he should be able to be effectively utilized as a pass rushing OLB soon … and develop as a 4-3 DE. When they eventually move to a 4-3 look, Moss should be able to put his hands down with success.
Pick: OLB/DE Jarvis Moss, Florida
16. Green Bay Packers
RB value is currently off the board right now, as they could definitely use someone. With the way things are going, I expect them to try and move up for a RB. For all the talk about the system being able to develop RB’s, that’s a big gamble and the talent after the top 2 is iffy. But for now, it’s no trade, and no RB’s of value. There’s talk of DL, but I don’t buy it. LB is a no. CB could use help, and safety could use help. Offensively, they could use another WR, and they could use a TE. Secondary talent is fine later, so the look is to offense. As tempting as a WR might be, a top target like Greg Olsen may be too good to pass up (especially since they have Greg Jennings and Donald Driver at WR already).
Pick: TE Greg Olsen, Miami
17. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Tony Pashos signing as a good one, but an intriguing one. That said, OL wasn’t going to be a draft focus in all likelihood. The signing of Northcutt may remove WR as an early look for them. The look is defense, where CB depth can likely be addressed later, but an impact safety is needed sooner. The other big area would probably be defensive end. The nod here goes to Reggie Nelson as a potential impact safety that’s ready to step in.
Pick: S Reggie Nelson, Florida
18. Cincinnati Bengals
It’s been an interesting offseason so far. They lose a leader in Simmons. Sure, he had declined a bit, but with all the off-field issues, losing locker room leaders like Simmons is a risky move. Loss of Wilkins removes depth, but should be adequately filled, and loss of Steinbach should be filled fine with Whitworth. DB or LB are probably the looks. As tempting as LB might be, the guess here is still that they wait till later to add a piece, if at all. There’s talk of moving Madieu Williams to CB, so if this was a trade mock, things may be different. But I’m not sold on Michael Griffin’s value here, and as such, the nod goes to Chris Houston as the 2nd corner off the board.
Pick: CB Chris Houston, Arkansas
19. Tennessee Titans
I think they’ve had a smart offseason. They know better than to get in the cap woes that they were in before, and as such, they made some tough decisions. Offensively, they need a WR. Bad. David Givens is supposedly not going to be ready at the beginning of the year. That leaves a motley crew of Brandon Jones (some improvement, but still better off as a depth receiver than a starter), Courtney Roby, Jonathan Orr, and Roydell Williams, none of the three having done much. Defensively, they could help almost anywhere. For all the talk about DE, Antwan Odom had shown flashes in his first two years before being injured last year. I think they may wait a bit at DE. DT value is lacking. S value (Griffin) is iffy. CB could use someone with the Pacman issues. Do they really need to add a LB here? Tulloch showed flashes, and LB is deep in this draft. Gut feeling is no. As such, I’m looking at WR and CB. The lean here is with WR, as the development of Vince Young should be at the forefront of concerns. It’s Meachem or Ginn Jr.. The nod, for now, still goes to Ted Ginn Jr., who could be their returner if they make a decision on Pacman.
Pick: WR Ted Ginn Jr., the Ohio State
20. New York Giants
It’s been a fairly tumultuous offseason in New York, with a GM change and some subsequent player cuts. All the cuts had valid reasons behind it, but it does create some more questions. OL now could garner consideration, and Levi Brown would likely get a look. RB value is off here, so the other options here would likely be defense. LB is a thought, as is CB. For them to run the defense that Spagnuolo likely wants, they’ll likely need to level CB play. What’s the call? Tough one. Posluszny has worked his way into warranting a look here. Willis doesn’t really fit here. McCauley and Wright are tempting, but there are non-football concerns with both, and Coughlin and Pat Hill are extended parts of a tree. Darrelle Revis just doesn’t seem to me to be the type of corner Spagnuolo would like, and I’m not sold on Ross either. What’s the call? The nod here goes to Levi Brown, although I’m not a big fan of the move. I think Wilkinson will get a shot at the job, although some competition is likely brought in, but I think they wait, and I don’t like the corner values here, and while I mocked Josh Wilson here once, I have second thoughts on that. While Whimper and Diehl could perhaps suffice, can they really depend on those two to protect Eli Manning’s blindside in a critical developmental year for Eli?
Pick: OT Levi Brown, Penn State
21. Denver Broncos
So far, I think it’s been a solid offseason for the Broncos. They’ve brought in some offensive veterans to surround Cutler and help him develop. They’ll likely add a RB, but probably later. This pick, if they are here, is likely to be on the defensive side. For now, Bly is there, so CB is off, and LB is off, meaning the look is likely DL, as safety depth can be dealt with later. DT value is lacking so it’ll likely be the best end talent. The nod goes to Anthony Spencer as a potential edge talent that Jim Bates can utilize.
Pick: DE Anthony Spencer, Purdue
22. Dallas Cowboys
They made a big splash … literally, with Leonard Davis. Brad Johnson gives them a veteran backup QB. Offensive needs will likely wait, as I don’t see them going OG this early. Thus, it’s likely on defense, and in the back 7, as DL values for the 3-4 are iffy here. While I’m not big on Quinn Pitcock, he does have some similarities to Luis Castillo (albeit, not as good), so I’d watch that one, but for now, I can’t pull the trigger. Another edge guy might be intriguing, but I’m not sold on anyone here. Thus, it’s DB. In the end, for all the talk about Anthony Henry, I think they’ll look on their board and take the best DB out there, whether it be safety or corner, and figure things out after that. After all … they very well could add TWO DB’s, as CB depth is probably still warranted. It’s a tough call … and I don’t like it … but the nod here is to Michael Griffin in a slight edge over whatever corner you want to toss out there (as several could be considered decent values here). I’m still not sold that Griffin is worth it here.
Pick: S Michael Griffin, Texas
23. Kansas City Chiefs
I like the two additions they’ve made so far in McIntosh and Harris. Harris gives them a starting MIKE, which was an area that needed a look, and McIntosh gives them a tackle option so they won’t have to force any moves and make desperate decisions. QB is likely not a drafting concern this high even if they move Trent Green. Despite the addition of McIntosh, another OT could still be used. A playmaking WR is certainly something that deserves consideration. Defensively, based on the board, they could use corner depth, but that can wait. Thus, the look is offense, with WR or OT. Tough call … and I am tempted to go with a WR, and probably Meachem, but they can probably find one later. I stay with the pick I made in my last mock, and that is, Joe Staley.
Pick: OT Joe Staley, Central Michigan
24. New England Patriots f/ Seattle Seahawks
A very effective offseason so far, and I fully expect them to continue to be active, in particular, with their picks. That said, it’s a no-trade mock, so 2 first round selections will be made. WR could draw consideration, because as of this writing, they haven’t added Stallworth or Moss yet, so they still lack a top target. A guy like Brian Leonard could draw interest. Defensively, an ILB ranks high on the board in regards to needs. They could always just pick who they think is the best player here, considering it to be a luxury move. I don’t believe Patrick Willis will be able to be the coverage linebacker that they desire to replace Tedy Bruschi … but he could be a very solid run-stuffing linebacker that’s passable in coverage. There’s a very good possibility someone (New Orleans comes to mind, although their attention could be shifting to CB), makes a move up for Willis. I still hear that Siler is someone they love, and I think his value is warranted in the first round. That said, the nod here is to Willis, because, if they give him a year to develop, they could always slide Vrabel over into the heavier coverage role ILB spot to let Willis have less to deal with, and more developmental time to correct a lot of his flaws.
Pick: LB Patrick Willis, Mississippi
25. New York Jets
I can’t understate how huge I think the move for Thomas Jones was. This likely pushes offense off the board here, unless value is exemplary, as there isn’t a pressing need outside of TE, but value is lacking there anyways. Thus, the look is defense. What do they look for? They could use pass rushing help, DL help, and CB help. Gut feeling says that they wait on CB, due to Mangini’s background and pedigree, along with system utility. They should be able to address CB with one of their late 2nd rounders. DL value is possible here, if Justin Harrell has an excellent workout, but for now, it’s questionable. Thus, it’s a pass rusher, and there are some options. Victor Abiamiri rates up there as a possible consideration, and Mangini does have ties with Weis. I’ll get a lot of howls on this one … but the nod here goes to Brian Robison, who was a 2nd/3rd round guy pre-combine, and now may warrant a value grade of late 1st/early 2nd for me. As noted, this is a rough mock. Robison has all the qualities that Mangini may desire off the edge, though.
Pick: OLB/DE Brian Robison, Texas
26. Philadelphia Eagles
I’ve learned to somewhat tone out most Eagles fans … but Griffin is off the board, so all the Griffin lovers can’t go on and on about it. What next? They could look at DE, where they could add a guy stouter against the run. If a linebacker warrants it, they could look there. CB could draw a look, and with Stallworth not there, WR deserves some consideration. What’s the nod? Not sure how this will play with Eagles fans, but the nod is to Charles Johnson, who compares favorably to a young Darren Howard. He didn’t work out as well as the rumors indicated, but some guys playing speeds are better than their workout times, and I still think Charles Johnson is one of the better ends in the draft. He offers a guy that’s a bit more stout against the run, and a good pass rushing acumen. They typically like addressing the lines early, and with Howard and Kearse both slowing down a bit, they could use some depth there for the long run.
Pick: DE Charles Johnson, Georgia
27. New Orleans Saints
I love their offseason so far. Losing Joe Horn loses a nice veteran, but his play had declined. I love the gamble on Eric Johnson, and while Brian Simmons isn’t who he once was, he’s still a solid talent that’s a good leader. Good, good gambles, IMO. What’s next? TE value is lacking here, so, while they may give consideration to a WR, the depth of WR may allow them to wait a bit. Thus, the pick, for now, is focused on the defensive side of the ball. Based on the board and their own needs, they’ll likely look LB or CB here. What’s the nod? A lot of CB options with Wright (off-field may push him to round 2), McCauley, Ross, Revis. But the nod goes to adding another LB and waiting on CB. Posluszny is the tough, hard-nosed type of guy that Payton may fall in love with. After all, most indications were that, had Reggie Bush gone 1, they would’ve gone with AJ Hawk last year, and while Posluszny is no Hawk, he’s a solid talent who has stabilized his value. There’s enough CB depth to wait, and Ross/Revis are questionable fits, IMO, and McCauley’s work ethic and issues with the coaching staff may scare some off, although someone will reach for him (and Wright’s off-field issues are well-noted).
Pick: LB Paul Posluszny, Penn State
28. New England Patriots
As noted, I expect them to be active with their picks, but for now, it’s no-trade. After adding Willis earlier, the guess is they look WR here. Remember, as of this writing, the only WR they’ve added is Welker. What’s the nod? They’ve shown a proclivity to drafting athletes early on at the skill positions (Ben Watson, Chad Jackson). Robert Meachem has a lot of work to do to develop into a top level WR, but his numbers solidified a first round grade, and he might be the type of player the Patriots gamble on with his top level athleticism. He would also offer a bigger target, and perhaps more significantly, a downfield target. Brian Leonard was a long consideration, and if they did sign another WR, and I was doing another no-trade, Leonard could get the nod.
Pick: WR Robert Meachem, Tennessee
29. Baltimore Ravens
As of this writing, the RB issue hasn’t been addressed. They could use a CB, allowing Rolle to move to a more suitable nickel role. Offensive line merits huge consideration with Pashos gone. As usual, Ozzie will likely take the guy who is one of the top guys on the board when their pick roles around. What’s the nod? As intriguing as any RB might be, I think they’ll end up making that McGahee trade. The OL values seem iffy relative to RT needs, and Terry could end up stepping in there just fine. I’m not a fan of the talent, but some team will gamble on him, and the Ravens could definitely use a CB. As such, the nod is to Marcus McCauley. They aren’t as connected as other teams to Pat Hill, and they have a strong defensive cast, coaching and personnel, that has shown an ability to keep guys in check as well as develop raw talents. This could be an ideal situation for McCauley.
Pick: CB Marcus McCauley, Fresno State
30. San Diego Chargers
Resigning Dielman was the big move they needed to make happen. This means they can be patient on OL instead of reaching for someone. They could look OL here, though, as Ben Grubbs might garner consideration. WR could garner some looks, with several solid options. Defensively, they could use safety help, but it’s doubtful, IMO, that AJ Smith goes with Meriweather, and potentially a bit high, and any other safety is a bit of a reach. They could very well end up moving one of their big corners (Jammer, Florence) to safety, opening up a spot for Cromartie, and moving McCree to the more ideal SS role for him. Based on the board as of now, it’s an interesting dilemma. I end up going with Dwayne Jarrett, who I question if his value is warranted here, but he is the type of big, physical receiver that might draw interest from Norv Turner that has the steady hands to help the young QB.
Pick: WR Dwayne Jarrett, University of Southern California
31. Chicago Bears
The Thomas Jones move was going to happen at some point, and having 2 picks in this range offers a lot of flexibility. They likely won’t look RB this high. TE lacks value at 31. WR is a possible look, but my guess is that it would have to be exceptional value to warrant a pick. OL could get consideration here. Defensively, LB could garner some thought. S value is lacking. I wouldn’t rule out CB, with Hester likely playing more offense based on the reports. DL is likely for later unless there’s an exceptional value. An extremely tough team to make a call for based on the board at hand. I’m looking at Timmons/Beason/Ugoh/Blalock/Grubbs mainly, with some WR’s and RB’s sprinkled in. This isn’t a pretty situation for the Bears, IMO. Gut feeling says that Ruben Brown returns for one more year, and thus, the move here is likely a future move. What’s the call? Long run, Briggs won’t be here. If an injury happened this year, the depth would end up being Jamar Williams, who is still an unknown (though I love the potential). The nod here goes, grudgingly, towards LB, although the talent decision goes to a guy I like a lot in Jon Beason. Beason somewhat reminds me of Lance Briggs. With Beason/Williams, the Bears are set for the future at LB, whenever Briggs/Hillenmeyer move on.
Pick: LB Jon Beason, the U
32. Indianapolis Colts
If the board shakes out this way, the Colts will be left with interesting decisions. There will be solid CB value. Timmons would be a solid LB value if they opted that route, and with Abiamiri on the board, along with Crowder, there’s some end options. Justin Harrell could garner a look inside. They could look offensive line as well, although that’s probably for later. There’s a lot of solid WR values here, which could draw some interest as Harrison is aging. What’s the call? While it’s not a pressing need, if Darrelle Revis is here, the value may be too good to pass up, and he gets the nod over Abiamiri.
Pick: CB Darrelle Revis, Pittsburgh
1. Oakland Raiders
It’s getting awful close, as for once, I’m not dead sold on the Russell pick. Calvin Johnson is pushing hard … but at the end of the day, I think, for now, the nod is still Russell.
Pick: QB Jamarcus Russell, LSU
2. Detroit Lions
Based on their current offseason additions, the nod here goes to Calvin Johnson. They have options at OT, RB, DE now. Sure, if they move any of the players or sign someone (say Kevin Curtis), then the dynamics shift. But they need another WR.
Pick: WR Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech
3. Cleveland Browns
The indications prior to my leaving the country had shifted back towards Joe Thomas again, and that’s the nod here for now. It very well could be Peterson, but I’d look for them to add a RB later to develop behind Lewis. They do seem to be trying to shore up their OL.
Pick: OT Joe Thomas, Wisconsin
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
CJ is off the board. As such, as tempting as Quinn may be, they look to fix that defense. A dominant edge guy like Gaines Adams might entice, but the instinct goes back to Okoye, who Gruden seemed to fall in love with at the Senior Bowl, and because a dominant interior player is more important than a dominant edge player in the scheme, so if they view Okoye as a dominant 3-tech, his value, IMO, is higher.
Pick: DT Amobi Okoye, Louisville
5. Arizona Cardinals
There’s no Joe Thomas on the board, and Levi Brown likely won’t be high enough to warrant such a selection. As such, they look elsewhere. While Laron Landry may tempt, Gaines Adams is too good to pass up here, as his combine work largely exceeded expectations and sewed up a top 5 grade.
Pick: DE Gaines Adams, Clemson
6. Washington Redskins
We’ll have to see how the Denver issue plays out. The pick will likely be on the DL, as long has been expected. Okoye and Adams would be guys they have interest in. Carriker is a guy that can be a base end for them and slide inside on pass-rushing downs, addressing 2 key needs for them last year, especially if they end up releasing Renaldo Wynn for more cap space.
Pick: DL Adam Carriker, Nebraska
7. Minnesota Vikings
While WR is their biggest need, the values here are iffy. Landry’s dominant workout potentially sews up a top 10 spot for him, and they could use a potentially dominant safety in the scheme, which they currently lack. Ends may garner attention, but with Adams off the board, I don’t see it.
Pick: S Laron Landry, LSU
8. Houston Texans
The growing nod has been towards Quinn. They do need a QB of the future, and Quinn could very well be that. Being in a tough division, the leadership has some leeway to develop a QB. Look for Sage Rosenfels (or another veteran) to play the role of Jake Plummer (very well could be Jake Plummer himself if something can get worked out with Tampa Bay) and Brady Quinn to play the role of Jay Cutler last year for Denver.
Pick: QB Brady Quinn, Notre Dame
9. Miami Dolphins
Toughest top 10 pick to figure so far. Largely because, are they resetting , which if they are, as some suggest, would merit a surprise based on Huzienga’s proclivity to a win now philosophy? Or are they simply clearing out some contracts? The guess is
thus based on a measure of team need, Mueller’s history at the top of the draft, and the potential Cameron inclinations based on affiliation, along with the coordinators potential preferences. Not sure what the fans really want here, although I think Finfan prefers Branch. While Mueller does have a history of drafting DL early, the bulk of the moves seem geared towards pass rushers. Furthermore, a cursory glance of recent Capers history leads me to think that Branch is not an ideal 5-tech/3-4 DE fit for him, and the pedigree of Cameron leads me to somewhat wonder if he would make that move. No other DL talent warrants such a high pick, and the signing of Porter, while not completely removing a rush backer off the board, likely pushes it down a bit. Safety isn’t likely in the first round, but CB is a possibility, even though I personally wouldn’t go that route. Offensively, they could use a WR, and while I like Dwayne Bowe a lot, as well as Ted Ginn Jr., neither one really is great value here, although Bowe could fit their needs. Meachem might work his way here … but I don’t think he’s an ideal system fit, and an ideal skill need. RB is a no, and with Quinn off, QB lacks value. OL and TE could merit value. At the end, I’m looking at a threesome of Leon Hall, Greg Olsen, and Levi Brown. Tough call, but the nod here, for now, goes to CB Leon Hall.
Pick: CB Leon Hall, Michigan
10. Atlanta Falcons
They could use help on the lines, and in the secondary. Reggie Nelson and Chris Houston aren’t bad values here; they aren’t great values either. Levi Brown is a thought, and Alan Branch and a couple ends could draw consideration. If Adrian Peterson is on the board, though, they won’t pass. I should also state, if I was doing trades, someone would’ve moved up to secure Peterson already. I think it’s possible Peterson falls out of the top 5, but I think someone would move up to secure his services, and a team from 6-9 would likely have moved down.
Pick: RB Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma
11. San Francisco 49ers
I already know that the majority of Niners fans won’t like the pick. I will first off say, if Adam Carriker was here, he would draw long consideration. Gut feeling right now is they prefer to land Laron Landry, and they may move up to try and get him, as they have additional ammo. Yes, they could use DL help, but personally
a) I’m not sold that it’s a 11th overall pressing need
b) I’m not sold Alan Branch is a fit.
Maybe I’m dead wrong on Branch as a fit, but I don’t see him as a fit for Nolan and Manusky. That said, Nolan does have ties to Baltimore, which was able to utilize Ngata at DE, but they also have a stronger defensive core around to push Ngata to play hard. It’s possible that Branch is the nod, but I don’t buy it for now. So what’s next? There’s S, where Reggie Nelson is decent value. An inside backer might draw consideration, but arguably, it’s still a bit high for that. So yes, Niners fans can go ahead and boo, but the nod goes to Dwayne Bowe, as I still fully believe a lead receiver is a key need for Alex Smith to develop (you can be a run first team, but your QB is still the most important cog in that offense long run), and they lack the weapons around to help him. I don’t see, say, Meachem because, well, they have Meachem in Ashley Lelie. I don’t see Ted Ginn Jr. on account of fit. If Landry is within range, though, I believe they make the move up, but this is a no-trader.
Pick: WR Dwayne Bowe, LSU
12. Buffalo Bills
The impending move of Willis McGahee means that RB is a need. Sure, they could land a veteran to start this year, but that would only be as a placeholder. Yes, they have other needs, such as LB and CB, but there’s enough depth to address that later. No, I don’t see Branch as a fit for them, but that’s me. WR is a peripheral thought, because RB would rate higher on the offensive charts if there was a need. The nod goes to Marshawn Lynch, who could be really good with how Fairchild would ostensibly like his offense to look.
Pick: RB Marshawn Lynch, California
13. St. Louis Rams
They’ve made two really nice additions in Drew Bennett and James Hall. Not only are they sound talents (and in Hall, great value for what they gave up), they filled key needs offering them flexibility in the draft. LB and DT could draw consideration, but with Witherspoon likely to be back in the middle again, unless it’s a huge bluff, the nod goes to Alan Branch here for now. They try again at DT, hoping that Branch is everything that Jimmy Kennedy was thought to potentially be. They could certainly use the run-stuffing help.
Pick: DT Alan Branch, Michigan
14. Carolina Panthers
No significant losses … but no significant additions so far. This is a critical year for John Fox, and they have several areas of need. Gut feeling is that, while they won’t go into the year depending on Dan Morgan, his restructure likely pushes LB down a bit. CB is a no, and DT is a no. DE could warrant consideration here, as could safety. Offensively, TE could use a look, now that Henning is gone, and Levi Brown could garner some consideration. A WR might also draw interest, but the depth at WR, combined with what their actual needs are, may push it back a little. Those seem to be the first round options, especially since QB value is likely off. The chic pick seems to be Greg Olsen, and he is certainly a consideration. I think Jamaal Anderson and Reggie Nelson could draw looks, and as noted, Levi Brown. Olsen is awfully tempting, but in the end, the nod here goes to Jamaal Anderson, as a dominant DL to work with the secondary is the cornerstone behind their success, and with the surrounding talent, Anderson could have success. I’m not huge on Anderson, as I think he’s been somewhat overrated and was too hit or miss, but with the surrounding talent here, he could be good. Safety can be looked later, and OL isn’t pressing, as health is the most critical aspect.
Pick: DE Jamaal Anderson, Arkansas
15. Pittsburgh Steelers
Tomlin has done a fairly solid job of hiding his plans, throwing a bunch of names out there into the wind. That said, there are several areas which seem more likely. OL could use another piece. Kendall Simmons could slide to center, opening up a spot at guard, or they could look for a center and keep Simmons put. Best guess is Simmons moves to guard. They seem to like Willie Colon a lot. While Levi Brown may get considered, I think they wait on the OL. Another WR would be nice … but it’s not a top of the draft need. Thus, the pick likely is one defense. DL value is iffy, so they are likely looking at LB value, or CB. Depth of CB could make them wait … but Houston could garner consideration. At the end of the day, long run, Tomlin likely moves to a 4-3, and with corner depth, I don’t see it here. The nod goes to LB, and in particular, an edge guy. They clearly need pass rushing help, and Jarvis Moss should top the list here. Yes, he has his flaws, but he should be able to be effectively utilized as a pass rushing OLB soon … and develop as a 4-3 DE. When they eventually move to a 4-3 look, Moss should be able to put his hands down with success.
Pick: OLB/DE Jarvis Moss, Florida
16. Green Bay Packers
RB value is currently off the board right now, as they could definitely use someone. With the way things are going, I expect them to try and move up for a RB. For all the talk about the system being able to develop RB’s, that’s a big gamble and the talent after the top 2 is iffy. But for now, it’s no trade, and no RB’s of value. There’s talk of DL, but I don’t buy it. LB is a no. CB could use help, and safety could use help. Offensively, they could use another WR, and they could use a TE. Secondary talent is fine later, so the look is to offense. As tempting as a WR might be, a top target like Greg Olsen may be too good to pass up (especially since they have Greg Jennings and Donald Driver at WR already).
Pick: TE Greg Olsen, Miami
17. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Tony Pashos signing as a good one, but an intriguing one. That said, OL wasn’t going to be a draft focus in all likelihood. The signing of Northcutt may remove WR as an early look for them. The look is defense, where CB depth can likely be addressed later, but an impact safety is needed sooner. The other big area would probably be defensive end. The nod here goes to Reggie Nelson as a potential impact safety that’s ready to step in.
Pick: S Reggie Nelson, Florida
18. Cincinnati Bengals
It’s been an interesting offseason so far. They lose a leader in Simmons. Sure, he had declined a bit, but with all the off-field issues, losing locker room leaders like Simmons is a risky move. Loss of Wilkins removes depth, but should be adequately filled, and loss of Steinbach should be filled fine with Whitworth. DB or LB are probably the looks. As tempting as LB might be, the guess here is still that they wait till later to add a piece, if at all. There’s talk of moving Madieu Williams to CB, so if this was a trade mock, things may be different. But I’m not sold on Michael Griffin’s value here, and as such, the nod goes to Chris Houston as the 2nd corner off the board.
Pick: CB Chris Houston, Arkansas
19. Tennessee Titans
I think they’ve had a smart offseason. They know better than to get in the cap woes that they were in before, and as such, they made some tough decisions. Offensively, they need a WR. Bad. David Givens is supposedly not going to be ready at the beginning of the year. That leaves a motley crew of Brandon Jones (some improvement, but still better off as a depth receiver than a starter), Courtney Roby, Jonathan Orr, and Roydell Williams, none of the three having done much. Defensively, they could help almost anywhere. For all the talk about DE, Antwan Odom had shown flashes in his first two years before being injured last year. I think they may wait a bit at DE. DT value is lacking. S value (Griffin) is iffy. CB could use someone with the Pacman issues. Do they really need to add a LB here? Tulloch showed flashes, and LB is deep in this draft. Gut feeling is no. As such, I’m looking at WR and CB. The lean here is with WR, as the development of Vince Young should be at the forefront of concerns. It’s Meachem or Ginn Jr.. The nod, for now, still goes to Ted Ginn Jr., who could be their returner if they make a decision on Pacman.
Pick: WR Ted Ginn Jr., the Ohio State
20. New York Giants
It’s been a fairly tumultuous offseason in New York, with a GM change and some subsequent player cuts. All the cuts had valid reasons behind it, but it does create some more questions. OL now could garner consideration, and Levi Brown would likely get a look. RB value is off here, so the other options here would likely be defense. LB is a thought, as is CB. For them to run the defense that Spagnuolo likely wants, they’ll likely need to level CB play. What’s the call? Tough one. Posluszny has worked his way into warranting a look here. Willis doesn’t really fit here. McCauley and Wright are tempting, but there are non-football concerns with both, and Coughlin and Pat Hill are extended parts of a tree. Darrelle Revis just doesn’t seem to me to be the type of corner Spagnuolo would like, and I’m not sold on Ross either. What’s the call? The nod here goes to Levi Brown, although I’m not a big fan of the move. I think Wilkinson will get a shot at the job, although some competition is likely brought in, but I think they wait, and I don’t like the corner values here, and while I mocked Josh Wilson here once, I have second thoughts on that. While Whimper and Diehl could perhaps suffice, can they really depend on those two to protect Eli Manning’s blindside in a critical developmental year for Eli?
Pick: OT Levi Brown, Penn State
21. Denver Broncos
So far, I think it’s been a solid offseason for the Broncos. They’ve brought in some offensive veterans to surround Cutler and help him develop. They’ll likely add a RB, but probably later. This pick, if they are here, is likely to be on the defensive side. For now, Bly is there, so CB is off, and LB is off, meaning the look is likely DL, as safety depth can be dealt with later. DT value is lacking so it’ll likely be the best end talent. The nod goes to Anthony Spencer as a potential edge talent that Jim Bates can utilize.
Pick: DE Anthony Spencer, Purdue
22. Dallas Cowboys
They made a big splash … literally, with Leonard Davis. Brad Johnson gives them a veteran backup QB. Offensive needs will likely wait, as I don’t see them going OG this early. Thus, it’s likely on defense, and in the back 7, as DL values for the 3-4 are iffy here. While I’m not big on Quinn Pitcock, he does have some similarities to Luis Castillo (albeit, not as good), so I’d watch that one, but for now, I can’t pull the trigger. Another edge guy might be intriguing, but I’m not sold on anyone here. Thus, it’s DB. In the end, for all the talk about Anthony Henry, I think they’ll look on their board and take the best DB out there, whether it be safety or corner, and figure things out after that. After all … they very well could add TWO DB’s, as CB depth is probably still warranted. It’s a tough call … and I don’t like it … but the nod here is to Michael Griffin in a slight edge over whatever corner you want to toss out there (as several could be considered decent values here). I’m still not sold that Griffin is worth it here.
Pick: S Michael Griffin, Texas
23. Kansas City Chiefs
I like the two additions they’ve made so far in McIntosh and Harris. Harris gives them a starting MIKE, which was an area that needed a look, and McIntosh gives them a tackle option so they won’t have to force any moves and make desperate decisions. QB is likely not a drafting concern this high even if they move Trent Green. Despite the addition of McIntosh, another OT could still be used. A playmaking WR is certainly something that deserves consideration. Defensively, based on the board, they could use corner depth, but that can wait. Thus, the look is offense, with WR or OT. Tough call … and I am tempted to go with a WR, and probably Meachem, but they can probably find one later. I stay with the pick I made in my last mock, and that is, Joe Staley.
Pick: OT Joe Staley, Central Michigan
24. New England Patriots f/ Seattle Seahawks
A very effective offseason so far, and I fully expect them to continue to be active, in particular, with their picks. That said, it’s a no-trade mock, so 2 first round selections will be made. WR could draw consideration, because as of this writing, they haven’t added Stallworth or Moss yet, so they still lack a top target. A guy like Brian Leonard could draw interest. Defensively, an ILB ranks high on the board in regards to needs. They could always just pick who they think is the best player here, considering it to be a luxury move. I don’t believe Patrick Willis will be able to be the coverage linebacker that they desire to replace Tedy Bruschi … but he could be a very solid run-stuffing linebacker that’s passable in coverage. There’s a very good possibility someone (New Orleans comes to mind, although their attention could be shifting to CB), makes a move up for Willis. I still hear that Siler is someone they love, and I think his value is warranted in the first round. That said, the nod here is to Willis, because, if they give him a year to develop, they could always slide Vrabel over into the heavier coverage role ILB spot to let Willis have less to deal with, and more developmental time to correct a lot of his flaws.
Pick: LB Patrick Willis, Mississippi
25. New York Jets
I can’t understate how huge I think the move for Thomas Jones was. This likely pushes offense off the board here, unless value is exemplary, as there isn’t a pressing need outside of TE, but value is lacking there anyways. Thus, the look is defense. What do they look for? They could use pass rushing help, DL help, and CB help. Gut feeling says that they wait on CB, due to Mangini’s background and pedigree, along with system utility. They should be able to address CB with one of their late 2nd rounders. DL value is possible here, if Justin Harrell has an excellent workout, but for now, it’s questionable. Thus, it’s a pass rusher, and there are some options. Victor Abiamiri rates up there as a possible consideration, and Mangini does have ties with Weis. I’ll get a lot of howls on this one … but the nod here goes to Brian Robison, who was a 2nd/3rd round guy pre-combine, and now may warrant a value grade of late 1st/early 2nd for me. As noted, this is a rough mock. Robison has all the qualities that Mangini may desire off the edge, though.
Pick: OLB/DE Brian Robison, Texas
26. Philadelphia Eagles
I’ve learned to somewhat tone out most Eagles fans … but Griffin is off the board, so all the Griffin lovers can’t go on and on about it. What next? They could look at DE, where they could add a guy stouter against the run. If a linebacker warrants it, they could look there. CB could draw a look, and with Stallworth not there, WR deserves some consideration. What’s the nod? Not sure how this will play with Eagles fans, but the nod is to Charles Johnson, who compares favorably to a young Darren Howard. He didn’t work out as well as the rumors indicated, but some guys playing speeds are better than their workout times, and I still think Charles Johnson is one of the better ends in the draft. He offers a guy that’s a bit more stout against the run, and a good pass rushing acumen. They typically like addressing the lines early, and with Howard and Kearse both slowing down a bit, they could use some depth there for the long run.
Pick: DE Charles Johnson, Georgia
27. New Orleans Saints
I love their offseason so far. Losing Joe Horn loses a nice veteran, but his play had declined. I love the gamble on Eric Johnson, and while Brian Simmons isn’t who he once was, he’s still a solid talent that’s a good leader. Good, good gambles, IMO. What’s next? TE value is lacking here, so, while they may give consideration to a WR, the depth of WR may allow them to wait a bit. Thus, the pick, for now, is focused on the defensive side of the ball. Based on the board and their own needs, they’ll likely look LB or CB here. What’s the nod? A lot of CB options with Wright (off-field may push him to round 2), McCauley, Ross, Revis. But the nod goes to adding another LB and waiting on CB. Posluszny is the tough, hard-nosed type of guy that Payton may fall in love with. After all, most indications were that, had Reggie Bush gone 1, they would’ve gone with AJ Hawk last year, and while Posluszny is no Hawk, he’s a solid talent who has stabilized his value. There’s enough CB depth to wait, and Ross/Revis are questionable fits, IMO, and McCauley’s work ethic and issues with the coaching staff may scare some off, although someone will reach for him (and Wright’s off-field issues are well-noted).
Pick: LB Paul Posluszny, Penn State
28. New England Patriots
As noted, I expect them to be active with their picks, but for now, it’s no-trade. After adding Willis earlier, the guess is they look WR here. Remember, as of this writing, the only WR they’ve added is Welker. What’s the nod? They’ve shown a proclivity to drafting athletes early on at the skill positions (Ben Watson, Chad Jackson). Robert Meachem has a lot of work to do to develop into a top level WR, but his numbers solidified a first round grade, and he might be the type of player the Patriots gamble on with his top level athleticism. He would also offer a bigger target, and perhaps more significantly, a downfield target. Brian Leonard was a long consideration, and if they did sign another WR, and I was doing another no-trade, Leonard could get the nod.
Pick: WR Robert Meachem, Tennessee
29. Baltimore Ravens
As of this writing, the RB issue hasn’t been addressed. They could use a CB, allowing Rolle to move to a more suitable nickel role. Offensive line merits huge consideration with Pashos gone. As usual, Ozzie will likely take the guy who is one of the top guys on the board when their pick roles around. What’s the nod? As intriguing as any RB might be, I think they’ll end up making that McGahee trade. The OL values seem iffy relative to RT needs, and Terry could end up stepping in there just fine. I’m not a fan of the talent, but some team will gamble on him, and the Ravens could definitely use a CB. As such, the nod is to Marcus McCauley. They aren’t as connected as other teams to Pat Hill, and they have a strong defensive cast, coaching and personnel, that has shown an ability to keep guys in check as well as develop raw talents. This could be an ideal situation for McCauley.
Pick: CB Marcus McCauley, Fresno State
30. San Diego Chargers
Resigning Dielman was the big move they needed to make happen. This means they can be patient on OL instead of reaching for someone. They could look OL here, though, as Ben Grubbs might garner consideration. WR could garner some looks, with several solid options. Defensively, they could use safety help, but it’s doubtful, IMO, that AJ Smith goes with Meriweather, and potentially a bit high, and any other safety is a bit of a reach. They could very well end up moving one of their big corners (Jammer, Florence) to safety, opening up a spot for Cromartie, and moving McCree to the more ideal SS role for him. Based on the board as of now, it’s an interesting dilemma. I end up going with Dwayne Jarrett, who I question if his value is warranted here, but he is the type of big, physical receiver that might draw interest from Norv Turner that has the steady hands to help the young QB.
Pick: WR Dwayne Jarrett, University of Southern California
31. Chicago Bears
The Thomas Jones move was going to happen at some point, and having 2 picks in this range offers a lot of flexibility. They likely won’t look RB this high. TE lacks value at 31. WR is a possible look, but my guess is that it would have to be exceptional value to warrant a pick. OL could get consideration here. Defensively, LB could garner some thought. S value is lacking. I wouldn’t rule out CB, with Hester likely playing more offense based on the reports. DL is likely for later unless there’s an exceptional value. An extremely tough team to make a call for based on the board at hand. I’m looking at Timmons/Beason/Ugoh/Blalock/Grubbs mainly, with some WR’s and RB’s sprinkled in. This isn’t a pretty situation for the Bears, IMO. Gut feeling says that Ruben Brown returns for one more year, and thus, the move here is likely a future move. What’s the call? Long run, Briggs won’t be here. If an injury happened this year, the depth would end up being Jamar Williams, who is still an unknown (though I love the potential). The nod here goes, grudgingly, towards LB, although the talent decision goes to a guy I like a lot in Jon Beason. Beason somewhat reminds me of Lance Briggs. With Beason/Williams, the Bears are set for the future at LB, whenever Briggs/Hillenmeyer move on.
Pick: LB Jon Beason, the U
32. Indianapolis Colts
If the board shakes out this way, the Colts will be left with interesting decisions. There will be solid CB value. Timmons would be a solid LB value if they opted that route, and with Abiamiri on the board, along with Crowder, there’s some end options. Justin Harrell could garner a look inside. They could look offensive line as well, although that’s probably for later. There’s a lot of solid WR values here, which could draw some interest as Harrison is aging. What’s the call? While it’s not a pressing need, if Darrelle Revis is here, the value may be too good to pass up, and he gets the nod over Abiamiri.
Pick: CB Darrelle Revis, Pittsburgh