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MetSox17
11-03-2009, 04:52 PM
Pick your top five locks of the week, with a little information on why. Might even help win yourself some straight cash homey (For those that are old enough to partake in completely legal betting).


Chiefs +6.5 @ Jaguars

Ravens -3 @ Bungles

Texans +9 @ Colts

Redskins +10 @ Falcons

Packers -10 @ Buccaneers

Cardinals +3 @ Bears

Dolphins +10.5 @ Patriots

Panthers +13.5 @ Saints

Lions +10 @ Seahawks

Titans +4 @ 49ers

Chargers +4.5 @ Giants

Cowboys +3 @ Eagles

Steelers -3 @ Broncos

MetSox17
11-03-2009, 04:57 PM
I'm liking Houston, Seattle, Cincinnati and Green Bay.

Houston always plays Indianapolis tough. Moats showed he can run, plus they have Slaton, Schaub and AJ. I'm liking their chances to keep it within 9.

The Lions and Buccaneers are just terrible and i'm expecting them to lose big.

The Bungles beat Baltimore on the road last week, with Benson coming off a great game and an extra week to prepare, i'm liking them to actually straight up beat Baltimore.

Babylon
11-03-2009, 05:06 PM
Pick your top five locks of the week, with a little information on why. Might even help win yourself some straight cash homey (For those that are old enough to partake in completely legal betting).


Chiefs +6.5 @ Jaguars

Ravens -3 @ Bungles

Texans +9 @ Colts

Redskins +10 @ Falcons

Packers -10 @ Buccaneers

Cardinals +3 @ Bears

Dolphins +10.5 @ Patriots

Panthers +13.5 @ Saints

Lions +10 @ Seahawks

Titans +4 @ 49ers

Chargers +4.5 @ Giants

Cowboys +3 @ Eagles

Steelers -3 @ Broncos

I'll take:

Seahawks -10 vs Detroit. Seattle beats up on patsies at home and Detroit is terrible.

Ravens -3 vs Cinci. I think the Bengals will feel the loss of Odom upfront and like the Ravens here, think they could be on a little run.

Texans +9 at Indy. Colts arent going 16-0 but they may win here, in a close one. I like the shift to Moats at RB, take Houston.

Saints -13.5 vs Panthers. A lot of points but Carolina is terrible despite beating the cards. 30-10 final.

Steelers -3 at Denver. The Broncos are returning to earth i think and will go Steelers by a TD.

MetSox17
11-03-2009, 05:10 PM
Michael Turner ran all over the Saints, i wouldn't touch that game. DeAngelo and J-Stew might shred them up and at the very least keep it close.

Rosebud
11-03-2009, 05:23 PM
Falcons, Packers, Cards, Phins and Eagles. Eagles are hte only won I'm iffy on but I think they'll win by a touchdown so I think they're a solid bet. Falcons and Packers should rape, I like the cards to beat the bears and the phins will keep it close if not win.

wicket
11-03-2009, 05:32 PM
Texans +9 @ Colts
With the way theyve been manhandling their opponents the Colts should be a way bigger fav at home

Redskins +10 @ Falcons
Any team should be a 10 point fav against the skins the way they are playing. Falcons can score, skins just cant.

Cardinals +3 @ Bears
Bears are undefeated at home and Cards are capable of losing to carolina

Dolphins +10.5 @ Patriots
Reverse lock, would touch this game
Panthers +13.5 @ Saints
Reverse lock, would touch this game
Titans +4 @ 49ers
Titans won their first game, whooptiedoo, still doesnt mean that the niners will take care of biz at home
Cowboys +3 @ Eagles
Eagles are the better team and they play at home and they just tanked a boatload of confidence in new york
Steelers -3 @ Broncos
The broncos finally showed that they werent that good after all

Smooth Criminal
11-03-2009, 05:37 PM
Panthers - +13.5 is huge. They got the run game going last week and I think theyl be able to establish that presence against New Orleans aswell.

Broncos +3 - Undefeated team at home plus points? I'll take that everyday.

Dolphins +10.5 - The Dolphins will run the ball all day to keep Brady and company off the field, similar to what they did to the Colts. Pats win, but not by 10.

Giants -4.5 - I like the Giants to rebound and have a big win over San Diego.

Bengals +3 - I like the bengals to beat a suspect Ravens secondary. That defense can't stop Palmer and company at home.

MetSox17
11-03-2009, 05:45 PM
No one else sees the Packers -10 versus the Bucs as the lock of the week????

Bengalsrocket
11-03-2009, 05:49 PM
Why the Ravens the favorite in this spread? The Bengals have beat the Ravens once already, have a better record, are coming off a bye week and they're 2 weeks removed from a completely dominating game.

I've always said divisional games are the toughest games to play in the regular season, regardless of talent, but seriously?

Vox Populi
11-03-2009, 06:33 PM
People putting faith in Ryan Moats is pretty funny... Guess where the Bills run defense ranks in the league?

MichaelJordanEberle (sabf)
11-03-2009, 08:06 PM
Why are the Broncos all of a sudden bad? No one thought they were a 16-0 team. Yeah it was a bad loss, but losses happen. And 3 weeks into the season, 90% of this board said the Ravens were bar none the best team in the league.

Rosebud
11-03-2009, 08:44 PM
No one else sees the Packers -10 versus the Bucs as the lock of the week????

ahem...ragnarok

Falcons, Packers, Cards, Phins and Eagles. Eagles are hte only won I'm iffy on but I think they'll win by a touchdown so I think they're a solid bet. Falcons and Packers should rape, I like the cards to beat the bears and the phins will keep it close if not win.

tjsunstein
11-03-2009, 09:22 PM
Green Bay.

Bet big.

PalmerToCJ
11-03-2009, 11:34 PM
Green Bay for sure.

Probably do a 2 liner and 3 liner.

Two liner big money
Packers -10
Falcons -10

Three liner moderate money
49ers -4
Bengals +3 (seriously, I mean we could lose for sure but I don't see how we aren't favorite here)... Also let me add I hate betting on the Bengals.
Steelers -3... Not huge on this one but I think the Steelers are rolling and Denver is coming back down to earth a little bit, not that that's a bad thing. Still not really pumped about this one.

aNYtitan
11-03-2009, 11:52 PM
Ravens -3 @ Bengals
I'll take the 3 and the straight out win with the Ravens here. I think beating down Denver makes them click.

Packers -10 @ Buccaneers
C'mon they are the Bucs. Aaron Rodgers will pick them apart after going to the limit against the Vikes, he might actually not see a pass rush all day. Blow out

Cardinals +3 @ Bears
Give me the bears and the striaght win, this one I take with trepidation

Dolphins +10.5 @ Patriots
Dolphins keep it close

Steelers -3 @ Broncos
Mile High, one of the best home stadiums in the league, I'll take the Broncos to win this one.

Brent
11-03-2009, 11:52 PM
I like the Niners' chances against the Titans because our run defense is so sick. That, and we're at home.

yo123
11-04-2009, 01:17 AM
There are a lot of lines this week that just look ridiculous to me.


I don't think New England has done near enough to be a double digit favorite against someone like Miami, who has proven to not be a cakewalk by any means, they should keep that game close.

Why the Ravens are -3 on the road in Cincy is beyond me. Cincy already beat them and are coming off a bye.

Pretty much the same thing with the Steelers/Broncos. Denver loses one game and now they're 3 point underdogs at home?

Texans/Colts line is too high, I think that game is a shootout, something like 35-31 Colts. Houston's offense has been to good for that many points.

Gimme the Packers, because the Bucs suck.

And I'm taking a sixth because I can't leave that 49ers/Titans game alone. San Fran hung with the Colts last week and now they're playing one of the worst teams in football at home. With that defense against Vince Young I'll take the Niners.

MetSox17
11-04-2009, 01:45 AM
I'm liking Houston, Seattle, Cincinnati and Green Bay.


I'm probably gonna put in a 4-game parlay with this ^^, and then put twice the amount i put on the parlay on Green Bay -10 against Tampa. Sounds like it makes sense.

tuan33
11-04-2009, 04:23 AM
Parlay bets are really stupid to make. It's great when you get lucky and it's that hole in 1 shot. The safer bet is just to make each bet and if you hit 3 out of 4, you get 2x your money back instead of losing it all because of one freak game.

abaddon41_80
11-04-2009, 06:18 AM
Redskins @ Falcons (-10)
Packers (-10) @ Buccaneers
Titans @ 49ers (-4)

If I was a betting man, these wold be 3 easy picks to make.

Steelers (-3) @ Broncos - The Steelers are playing well and I think they will easily cover the spread.

Chiefs (+6.5) @ Jaguars - Jacksonville is not that much better than KC.

LizardState
11-04-2009, 09:03 AM
Texans +9 @ Colts : Texans to beat the spread if not win. The 9ers showed the Colts can be had, disguised their pass rush vs Indy & gave Manning fits, threw him off his game bigtime. The Colts pass blocking isn't the same as before, they had to sub an UDFA o-linemen to keep Manning upright thru 4 qtrs. Houston s/b studying the SF game videos, they have enough defensive talent to do the same.

Redskins @ Falcons (-10) : Atlanta can cover 10 points on the Redskins, no o-line, no QB, no secondary, now now TE. Hey, that Dan Snyder can sure build a contender can't he?

Titans @ 49ers (-4) : Tennessee on a roll of.... uhh, one win. The 9ers lost Clements to a broken shoulderblade + an OL starter last wk vs indy, both out 6 wks.

Packers -10 @ Buccaneers : No pick. Be careful here, GB will win but they can't protect Rodgers worth a damn.

Too bad Cleveland is off this wk. Whoever they play next with whatever the spread, Cleveland will tank. Their idiot owner fired everybody this wk. in their FO but Mangini, guarantees they will beat the Lions, Rams or Tampa to the #1 pick. St. Louis is now only the 2nd most demoralized team in the NFL.

Brothgar
11-04-2009, 09:31 AM
Texans +9 @ Colts - Texans always play the Colts hard and they have the O to keep up.


Cardinals +3 @ Bears

The Cards have a decent chance to WIN without the points yeah it is in the windy city but I don't trust the bears secondary.

Lions +10 @ Seahawks

Homer throwing money away but Lofa is out I think Walter Jones is out if Truf is out and Calvin is back they should keep it close.

Titans +4 @ 49ers

CJ = MJ

Steelers -3 @ Broncos

Although they play well the steelers O-Line is going to have real trouble against DOOM! which means that the Steelers will have to keep guys in and lets not forget Champ and B-Dawk in the secondary.

FlyingElvis
11-04-2009, 09:55 AM
Be bold. Win big. Parlay the Falcons & Packers.

Redskins +10 @ Falcons - I will be shocked if this one doesn't climb to 14.5 by gameday. Skins in the Georgia dome without Cooley who has been their most consistent weapon - it's going to be ugly.

Packers -10 @ Buccaneers - Buccs are so bad they won't be able to capitalize on the bye week.

Chiefs +6.5 @ Jaguars - The Chiefs are not very good and MJD should tear them up.

Lions +10 @ Seahawks - Nothing fixes a team's problems like a date with the Lions. See: Rams, St. Louis.

Dolphins +10.5 @ Patriots - 2 big wins where Brady looked like his old self again to boost confidence and a bye week . . . yeah, the Phins won't keep this one close.


Just for the fun of it, here are my picks on the rest:
Cardinals +3 @ Bears
Panthers +13.5 @ Saints
Titans +4 @ 49ers
Chargers +4.5 @ Giants
Cowboys +3 @ Eagles
Steelers -3 @ Broncos
Ravens -3 @ Bungles
Texans +9 @ Colts

Brothgar
11-04-2009, 09:58 AM
I think the Phins game is a trap. The Phins made the Colts into a less than a touchdown game I think they can do the same to the pats as well.

FlyingElvis
11-04-2009, 10:03 AM
I think the Phins game is a trap. The Phins made the Colts into a less than a touchdown game I think they can do the same to the pats as well.

I think they can, but with NE coming off the bye I don't think they will.

But, fwiw, I only think the Falcons & Packers are true locks. The thread forced me to pick 5. ;)

MetSox17
11-04-2009, 12:53 PM
Parlay bets are really stupid to make. It's great when you get lucky and it's that hole in 1 shot. The safer bet is just to make each bet and if you hit 3 out of 4, you get 2x your money back instead of losing it all because of one freak game.

I'm betting small on parlays. Three weeks in a row i've hit three teamers, so it isn't as difficult as you're saying. Plus, if you're that unsure about it go with a progressive. It's the same deal.

When you're pretty confident on a few games, getting 6:1, 10:1 and 25:1 on your money is too good to pass up.

yo123
11-04-2009, 01:51 PM
Dolphins +10.5 @ Patriots - 2 big wins where Brady looked like his old self again to boost confidence and a bye week . . . yeah, the Phins won't keep this one close.

He played possibly the two worst secondaries in the NFL.

FlyingElvis
11-04-2009, 01:55 PM
He played possibly the two worst secondaries in the NFL.

I didn't mean he looked like his old self in terms of stats. He was missing badly on his passes downfield through the first 4 games regardless of DB quality. In the last 2 games he was on target again.

P-L
11-04-2009, 02:43 PM
He played possibly the two worst secondaries in the NFL.
Tampa Bay actually has the better pass defense than Miami. Tampa's is ranked 15th against the pass and Miami is ranked 21st against the pass.

yo123
11-04-2009, 02:54 PM
Tampa Bay actually has the better pass defense than Miami. Tampa's is ranked 15th against the pass and Miami is ranked 21st against the pass.


Hmmmm...I was under the impression that Tampa's secondary was terrible. Some of that can be contributed to the fact that Tampa is always behind and teams don't have to throw on them late though.

Smooth Criminal
11-04-2009, 03:47 PM
Teams have been forced to pass on Miami. Their run defense was dominating at the begining of the season.

Playing the Dolphins should pose a bigger challenge to brady than the Titans or the Bucs, still, Brady's gonna torch them.

Tebow_Nation
11-04-2009, 03:49 PM
I think the bye week might pull it off against the browns.

P-L
11-04-2009, 04:02 PM
I forgot the word "ranked" in there, between "better" and "pass." My point was not supposed to be that Tampa had a better secondary than Miami, just that Miami's is not very good either.

MetSox17
11-04-2009, 04:45 PM
Hey hey hey, no thread hijacking!

Anyone betting CFB?

OU is -6 against Nebraska. Get it while it's hot.

Okie Lite is -7.5 versus Iowa State.

Sniper
11-04-2009, 04:46 PM
Oregon -7 vs. Stanford. Cake.

MetSox17
11-04-2009, 04:53 PM
Oregon -7 vs. Stanford. Cake.

You have no idea how much i've been cracking my head over that game. It seems soooo easy, but i can also see how Stanford pulls an upset, or at least close to an upset and Oregon wins in the last second.

I got ****** over also for not putting my bet in on time because the line about a day and a half ago was -6.

Point is, it's a road game after a huge win for Oregon, and the Pac-10 is whack.

Sniper
11-04-2009, 05:03 PM
Michigan -6.5 vs. Purdue.

Brothgar
11-04-2009, 05:13 PM
I think the bye week might pull it off against the browns.

I heard that the browns got +14 points against the bye.

Dam8610
11-04-2009, 05:16 PM
Chargers +4.5

The Giants are struggling and giving up big games to QBs, Philip Rivers should be able to take advantage of this.

Lions +10

I like the points here, for some reason I don't see the Seahawks generating much offense.

49ers -4

I only give 4 and I get the 49ers (who could conceivably be 5-2) against the Titans (who could conceivably be 0-7)? I'll take it.

Steelers -3

Didn't we see this game last week? At least something similar to it.

Colts -9

The Colts have never lost to the Texans in Indy, and the Texans defense isn't performing all that well.

Sniper
11-04-2009, 05:17 PM
I heard that the browns got +14 points against the bye.

Bye easily covers.

d34ng3l021
11-05-2009, 10:25 AM
Watch out for the Falcons-Redskins game. The Skins are coming off of a bye and could pose a problem for the Falcons offense (just like the Bears and Cowboys did, when they had their bye to prepare for us). Our defense will shut down Washington's offense, but it might be a hard fought game, only because WAS had the bye.

Other games I like:

Packers -10 @ Buccaneers - Packers offense might be able to cover the spread against a Allen-less defense.

Panthers +13.5 @ Saints - We have a winner. The Saints starting DT is out for 6-8 weeks and Turner was able to gash them up the middle. Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams will have big days. If that isn't enough, look at the last times the Panthers went to New Orleans; John Fox hasn't lost to the Saints in an away game during his stay in CAR.

* 2008: Panthers, 33-31 (FG with :01 remaining)
* 2007: Panthers, 16-13 (FG with :00 remaining)
* 2006: Panthers, 31-21
* 2005: Panthers, 27-10 (at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, La.)
* 2004: Panthers, 32-21
* 2003: Panthers, 23-20 (FG with 10:25 left in OT)
* 2002: Panthers, 10-6 (eliminated Saints from playoffs)


Lions +10 @ Seahawks - Lions aren't covering this.

Titans +4 @ 49ers - The 49ers might be able to win big against the terrible Titans.

Chargers +4.5 @ Giants - Giants are really banged up and it shows in their play. They are having a hard time stopping an offense and I expect Chargers to put up a good fight, and maybe win.

yo123
11-05-2009, 02:08 PM
Yeah, that Carolina/New Orleans line is starting to look tempting. Carolina isn't as bad as I thought they were, they might be in the WC race at the end of the year and they should be able to run the ball on the Saints without Ellis.

MetSox17
11-07-2009, 04:15 PM
You have no idea how much i've been cracking my head over that game. It seems soooo easy, but i can also see how Stanford pulls an upset, or at least close to an upset and Oregon wins in the last second.

I got ****** over also for not putting my bet in on time because the line about a day and a half ago was -6.

Point is, it's a road game after a huge win for Oregon, and the Pac-10 is whack.

Hope no one bet on this game.

jackalope
11-07-2009, 05:37 PM
My pick five for this week was..

Texans +9 @ Colts

Redskins +10 @ Falcons

Packers -10 @ Buccaneers

Lions +10 @ Seahawks

Titans +4 @ 49ers

Sniper
11-07-2009, 05:39 PM
Hope no one bet on this game.

Ha, I r dumb.

Mr. Stiller
11-07-2009, 08:41 PM
I'll take:

Seahawks -10 vs Detroit. Seattle beats up on patsies at home and Detroit is terrible.

Ravens -3 vs Cinci. I think the Bengals will feel the loss of Odom upfront and like the Ravens here, think they could be on a little run.

Texans +9 at Indy. Colts arent going 16-0 but they may win here, in a close one. I like the shift to Moats at RB, take Houston.

Saints -13.5 vs Panthers. A lot of points but Carolina is terrible despite beating the cards. 30-10 final.

Steelers -3 at Denver. The Broncos are returning to earth i think and will go Steelers by a TD.

Even when Denver sucked they've always had our number in Denver. An improved OL will help but their offense is the exact style that annihilates our defense. The reliable short passing game.

roscoesdad27
11-08-2009, 05:49 AM
put your scratch on these.

i do unit bets using $25 units...current lines per sportsbook.

baltimore -3...3 units ($75)
the ravens are undefeated with gaither playing....plus the defense seems to have gotten their swagger back, bad news for benson....statement game.

s.f. -4...1 unit ($25)
i like the s.f. run defense led by p. willy against a titans team that is heavily reliant on the run...its worth some action.

s.f./tenn UNDER 40.5....3 units ($75)
i dont think tenn score more than 10 points and s.f. isnt going to excactly light it up either.

dallas ML (+120)...1 unit ($25)
a lil scratch on the premier game...picking dallas to win str8 up 25 against 30.

pitt/denver UNDER 40...2 units ($50)
i like how both defenses match up...denvers pass defense matches up perfectly with the steelers scheme and pitts run defense is bad news for a denver team that loves to run the ball.

MetSox17
11-08-2009, 04:15 PM
Ouch bro on that Ravens game. I thought the Bengals were good enough to win, and they were getting points, at home, against a team they had already beaten. I stayed away from that game.

The Packers ****** me though. Bad.

umphrey
11-08-2009, 04:17 PM
I thought people would lose money on that game. The Packers were embarrassing today. Horrible play on the line on both sides of the game and our GM and coach are losing my confidence more every week.

Rosebud
11-08-2009, 04:25 PM
Falcons, Packers, Cards, Phins and Eagles. Eagles are hte only won I'm iffy on but I think they'll win by a touchdown so I think they're a solid bet. Falcons and Packers should rape, I like the cards to beat the bears and the phins will keep it close if not win.

And this is why I no longer am allowed to gamble. Would've put most of my money on Green Bay, then won most of it back with the other games and then put big money on Philly to get me back in the black for the week, which would guarantee Dallas gets the W.

MetSox17
11-08-2009, 04:40 PM
Can't believe i didn't bet on the Falcons. Everyone was calling it.

Rosebud
11-08-2009, 04:49 PM
Can't believe i didn't bet on the Falcons. Everyone was calling it.

As an NFC East fan you should know better than anyone jut how terrible washington is.

MetSox17
11-08-2009, 04:58 PM
As an NFC East fan you should know better than anyone jut how terrible washington is.

I just didn't think the Falcons were gonna blow them out, they have a pathetic defense, and Matt Ryan came back down to earth.

Smooth Criminal
11-08-2009, 06:56 PM
Panthers - +13.5 is huge. They got the run game going last week and I think theyl be able to establish that presence against New Orleans aswell.

Broncos +3 - Undefeated team at home plus points? I'll take that everyday.

Dolphins +10.5 - The Dolphins will run the ball all day to keep Brady and company off the field, similar to what they did to the Colts. Pats win, but not by 10.

Giants -4.5 - I like the Giants to rebound and have a big win over San Diego.

Bengals +3 - I like the bengals to beat a suspect Ravens secondary. That defense can't stop Palmer and company at home.

3-1 so far with MNF to go.

FlyingElvis
11-09-2009, 10:27 AM
Can't believe i didn't bet on the Falcons. Everyone was calling it.
Everyone was calling the Packers, too. See my first line below . . . ;)


Be bold. Win big. Parlay the Falcons & Packers.

Redskins +10 @ Falcons - I will be shocked if this one doesn't climb to 14.5 by gameday. Skins in the Georgia dome without Cooley who has been their most consistent weapon - it's going to be ugly.

Packers -10 @ Buccaneers - Buccs are so bad they won't be able to capitalize on the bye week.

Chiefs +6.5 @ Jaguars - The Chiefs are not very good and MJD should tear them up.

Lions +10 @ Seahawks - Nothing fixes a team's problems like a date with the Lions. See: Rams, St. Louis.

Dolphins +10.5 @ Patriots - 2 big wins where Brady looked like his old self again to boost confidence and a bye week . . . yeah, the Phins won't keep this one close.


Just for the fun of it, here are my picks on the rest:
Cardinals +3 @ Bears
Panthers +13.5 @ Saints
Titans +4 @ 49ers
Chargers +4.5 @ Giants
Cowboys +3 @ Eagles
Steelers -3 @ Broncos
Ravens -3 @ Bungles
Texans +9 @ Colts

2 for 5 in my top 5. 3 for 7 in the others, too. Even if I'm right on the Steelers game I wouldn't break even. Which is probably why, when it comes to gambling establishments, Elvis left the building a few years back and doesn't plan to return.

Brothgar
11-09-2009, 11:01 AM
Texans +9 @ Colts - Texans always play the Colts hard and they have the O to keep up.


Cardinals +3 @ Bears

The Cards have a decent chance to WIN without the points yeah it is in the windy city but I don't trust the bears secondary.

Lions +10 @ Seahawks

Homer throwing money away but Lofa is out I think Walter Jones is out if Truf is out and Calvin is back they should keep it close.

Titans +4 @ 49ers

CJ = MJ

Steelers -3 @ Broncos

Although they play well the steelers O-Line is going to have real trouble against DOOM! which means that the Steelers will have to keep guys in and lets not forget Champ and B-Dawk in the secondary.

3 out of 4 with the only loss being due to a INT for TD in the final seconds.

MetSox17
11-09-2009, 01:10 PM
This was not a good weekend... **** you Packers. **** you.

MetSox17
11-09-2009, 01:13 PM
put your scratch on these.

i do unit bets using $25 units...current lines per sportsbook.

baltimore -3...3 units ($75)
the ravens are undefeated with gaither playing....plus the defense seems to have gotten their swagger back, bad news for benson....statement game.

s.f. -4...1 unit ($25)
i like the s.f. run defense led by p. willy against a titans team that is heavily reliant on the run...its worth some action.

s.f./tenn UNDER 40.5....3 units ($75)
i dont think tenn score more than 10 points and s.f. isnt going to excactly light it up either.

dallas ML (+120)...1 unit ($25)
a lil scratch on the premier game...picking dallas to win str8 up 25 against 30.

pitt/denver UNDER 40...2 units ($50)
i like how both defenses match up...denvers pass defense matches up perfectly with the steelers scheme and pitts run defense is bad news for a denver team that loves to run the ball.

This made me feel slightly better though. Good luck tonight man, you need it.

Rosebud
11-09-2009, 01:20 PM
And this is why I no longer am allowed to gamble. Would've put most of my money on Green Bay, then won most of it back with the other games and then put big money on Philly to get me back in the black for the week, which would guarantee Dallas gets the W.

lol, I know how this gambling thing works to screw me entirely to well. And with me no longer playing poker to cover any football loses things would get out of hand.

yo123
11-10-2009, 10:09 PM
Can anyone give me a reason why I shouldn't take New Orleans -13.5 over St. Louis this week?

Auron
11-10-2009, 10:20 PM
Can anyone give me a reason why I shouldn't take New Orleans -13.5 over St. Louis this week?

Saints have not covered against the spread I believe the past 2 weeks. Lately they have shown a tendency to turn the ball over early in games, which leads to the opposition generating favorable field position.

We're still trying to cope with the losses of our starting 2 Defensive Tackles, Sedrick Ellis will be out for a few more weeks, and we've also been without our starting SLB Fujita...and as a result we've had issues vs. the run. Turner 151 yards, 1 TD vs. Atlanta, & DeAngelo Williams 149 yards, 2 TD vs. Carolina. Rams RB, Steven Jackson is tied for 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards with 784 yards, averaging 4.8 YPC, although only 1 TD on the year. Although I'm hopeful we'll have Fujita back this week, have to check the injury report later in the week.

I'm not expecting the Saints to lose this game, but in all honesty despite how bad the Rams have been... if we keep having the turnover issues early in games it might keep the game closer then it has to be... but then again I'm more pessimistic then most fans.

jackalope
11-10-2009, 10:27 PM
Haven't made picks yet, but I like...

Denver -3.5 @ Washington

New Orleans -13.5 @St. Louis

Atlanta -1.5 @ Carolina

Philadelphia +2.5 @ San Diego

Baltimore -11 @ Cleveland

gpngc
11-10-2009, 10:49 PM
Can anyone give me a reason why I shouldn't take New Orleans -13.5 over St. Louis this week?

They are on top of the world right now. Regardless of what your coaches tell you, you do not enter a game like this with the same intensity and focus you do for other contests.

And Steven Jackson. He's a nightmare matchup for those OLBs coming out of the backfield and will pound between the tackles all game. Turner/D. Williams exposed their run defense. Even if the Saints win easily, I could definitely see a backdoor cover on a late touchdown drive. Remember, these terrible teams don't care how much they are down by, they will drive to score down by 20 with 25 seconds left if they can just to shed some light on another loss.

gpngc
11-10-2009, 10:50 PM
And if you want it, take it now. It'll be 14 or 15 by Sunday probably.

yo123
11-10-2009, 10:52 PM
What about Miami -10 over the Bucs? The Bucs run D is terrible and I could see the Miami wildcat running all over them.

I still think Tampa might be the worst team in the league.

Thinking about a 3 team teaser with the Saints, Dolphins, and Cowboys. Something will probably go wrong there though.

yodabear
11-11-2009, 11:42 AM
Here are some I think....

Some suspected blowouts
1. Detroit (+17) @ Minnesota
Detroit is awful, and Minnesota will beat them, but by 17 points, I don't think so. I am going by just 14 points.

2. Baltimore (-11) @ Cleveland
Cleveland is a mess. I think they are going to get embarassed on MNF, something like 24-0 or something like that. Why the **** is this game on MNF?

3. New Orleans (-13.5) @ St. Louis
New Orleans is really good, we are really bad= at least a 14 point victory for the undebeatable Saints.

My "Close, Ballsy" game pick
4. Dallas (-3) @ Green Bay
I know it is cold weather and all that, but Tony Romo is returning back home and I think he will put on a show.

My super uber duber lock....
5. Denver (-3.5) @ Washington
How the **** is this only at 3.5? Washington is terrible.

Just for shits and giggles, the rest of the picks.....
Chicago @ San Francisco (-3)
Jacksonville (+6.5) @ NY Jets
Cincinnati (+7) @ Pittsburgh, I think Pittsburgh will win it, but by a field goal or 4 points or something like that.
Buffalo @ Tennessee (-6.5)
Atlanta (-1.5) @ Carolina, This was a contender for the super uber lock, but Carolina > Washington.
Tampa Bay (+10) @ Miami, Still like the Dolphins to win, but by single digits. Miami isn't a team that blows people out.
Kansas City (+2) @ Oakland
Seattle @ Arizona (-8.5), This was one of the harder ones, not sure if I like picking Arizona by that many.
Philadelphia (+2.5) @ San Diego
New England (+3) @ Indianapolis

yo123
11-11-2009, 12:51 PM
I can't believe you just picked Detroit as a lock of the week Yoda haha. But that game is probably a stay away for me. We play down to our competition more than we should.

Here's mine

Vikings (-17) over Lions
Ravens (-11) over Browns
Saints (-13.5) over Rams
Cowboys (-3) over Packers
Broncos (-3.5, WTF?) over Redskins
49ers (-3) over Bears
Jaguars (+6.5) over Jets
Bengals (+7) over Steelers
Bills (+6.5) over Titans
Panthers (+1.5) over Falcons
Dolphins (-10) over Bucs
Chiefs (+2) over Raiders
Cardinals (-8.5) over Seahawks
Chargers (-2.5) over Eagles
Colts (-3) over Patriots


Bolded are locks.

FlyingElvis
11-11-2009, 01:57 PM
Thinking about a 3 team teaser with the Saints, Dolphins, and Cowboys. Something will probably go wrong there though.

Why not do a 3 team tease w/the Patriots (+3), Bengals (+7) & Eagles (+2.5)?


That's 3 of the better teams in the league @ 11 points, 11 points & a whopping 15 for the Bengals who have already beaten Pitt once.

(taking the point off each line since you can't push a tease)

MetSox17
11-11-2009, 02:49 PM
If the Broncos are only a 3.5 point favorite, it's probably for a reason. I'm not trusting Denver or Kyle Orton to get into a high scoring game with the Redskins. Three of the last four games, Washington has put up 17 points, and the past two games for Denver their highest scoring output was 10. They only scored 7 coming off a bye against Baltimore. I wouldn't trust it.

FlyingElvis
11-11-2009, 03:28 PM
If the Broncos are only a 3.5 point favorite, it's probably for a reason. I'm not trusting Denver or Kyle Orton to get into a high scoring game with the Redskins. Three of the last four games, Washington has put up 17 points, and the past two games for Denver their highest scoring output was 10. They only scored 7 coming off a bye against Baltimore. I wouldn't trust it.

Until they at least pretend to make some downfield attempts I'd say you're dead on. Just bet the under and rake in the dough.

MetSox17
11-11-2009, 04:03 PM
Until they at least pretend to make some downfield attempts I'd say you're dead on. Just bet the under and rake in the dough.

O/U is 37.5

Don't know how i feel about that yet.

What about the Bungles though? Man they get nooo love from Vegas. If by some reason the line moves to 7.5, that would be my lock of the week.

FlyingElvis
11-11-2009, 04:08 PM
It's two teams with good D and weak O. Like you said - Wash has put up 17 in the last few games and Denver struggles to put up 10. So how is this the game where they go for over 17 each?


But hey, I was 6 for 13 in last weeks picks so take it with a grain of salt.

MetSox17
11-11-2009, 05:49 PM
LOL, yeah, this past weekend wasn't good for me, so i'm being extra careful with what i say. But, a 21-17 game doesn't seem too far-fetched, so :/

UK_Cheesehead
11-12-2009, 07:18 AM
So I was looking at these teaser bets you guys were going on about and it appeals to me big time tbh. Being in the UK though is it easy to join an American site and transfer money easily? I've seen a couple of games I'd love to lump on with the teasers. Looked at sportinteraction.com but when I go to deposit money they have to send me a text or something with a verification code, anyone know if it's legit? Might try bodog too, I think they're american and they sponsor Fulham.

yodabear
11-12-2009, 10:09 AM
I can't believe you just picked Detroit as a lock of the week Yoda haha. But that game is probably a stay away for me. We play down to our competition more than we should.

I think once a team gets over a 14 point favorite thats a little much for me. Last year the score was 12-10 or something like that. But I do like the Vikings to win.

MetSox17
09-08-2010, 04:51 PM
I made this one a while back if you wanna use it instead.

umphrey
09-08-2010, 04:55 PM
Wasn't this the week where pretty much anyone who bet on football lost a bunch of money on GB over Tampa? That was such a nightmare game.

MetSox17
09-08-2010, 05:18 PM
Yeah, i believe that's when they were wearing the creamsickle uni's too.

CC.SD
09-08-2010, 06:13 PM
1. A man of faith, John Locke
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_wzzWfB4g7c0/Sg8-T-mVO1I/AAAAAAAAD-M/YVtf1lVGWDE/s400/locke+orange.jpg

2. A Man of enlightened thoughts, John Locke
http://www.liberal-vision.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/john-locke.jpg

3. Loch Ness Monster
http://www.glenrowanrestaurant.co.uk/loch_ness_monster.jpg

4. America's #1 choice in lock
http://www.taylorsecurity.com/assets/item/regular/number%20seven7.jpg

5. This movie is still badass
http://graphics.ink19.com/issues/may1999/covers/lock_stock_two.jpeg



(with spread:)
http://www.called2serve.com/products/ME-JAMM-001.jpg

Brent
09-08-2010, 06:26 PM
CC.SD, you win again, my friend.

vidae
09-08-2010, 06:32 PM
CC.SD, you are a genius.

tjsunstein
09-08-2010, 06:34 PM
This thread died when everyone lost on a 'lock.'

Scotty D
09-08-2010, 08:35 PM
Borat needs to start that betting thing he usually does every year.

CJSchneider
09-08-2010, 08:40 PM
CC.SD, that was ******* beautiful.

Woody56
09-08-2010, 10:44 PM
no such thing as a lock, but im on houston.

Woody56
09-12-2010, 03:18 PM
no such thing as a lock, but im on houston.

easy winner.