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View Full Version : Which game tomorrow could be a upset special?


BleedBurgundy96
11-21-2009, 02:21 PM
Tomorrow in the NFL there will be alot of games where one team is favored to win by a big margin. As of today there are 8 games where a team is favored by 9 or more points.

Which one of these games do you think could be a upset special and why? You dont have to predict one of these teams to win. Im just asking which one do you think could be a upset.

Im going to go with the Bucs over the Saints. I also like the Redskins to beat the Cowboys tomorrow. I think the Bucs game has a better chance of happening though.

Over the last couple weeks the Bucs have played pretty good with Josh Freeman at QB. I like the direction this Bucs team is going. The Saints also have alot of injuries heading into this game. Sooner or later it will take a toll on them. I also look for the Bucs corners to play well tomorrow and give Brees some problems.

I know most people probably think the Saints will blow the Bucs out but I really believe the Bucs can pull the upset of the undefeated Saints.

So which game do you think could be a upset special?

Beans
11-21-2009, 02:23 PM
bucs over saints. book it

BleedBurgundy96
11-21-2009, 02:37 PM
bucs over saints. book it

Great minds think alike.

Gay Ork Wang
11-21-2009, 02:40 PM
i think the rams could make it

Auron
11-21-2009, 02:40 PM
Bucs over Saints is very possible I am concerned a bit with all the injuries we're having. Reggie Bush, Lance Moore, Sedrick Ellis, Tracy Porter and Jabari Greer all ruled out. That's both starting Corners, DT, our punt returner/RB specialist, and one our role player WRs. So yeah we're hurting..

and the Bucs haven't looked bad the past few weeks, since Freeman stepped in they look rejuvenated and are playing hard.

BleedBurgundy96
11-21-2009, 02:41 PM
i think the rams could make it

They did play well vs the Saints last week. The Cards have been up and down at different times during the season. It wouldnt shock me if the Rams did pull the upset.

Bengalsrocket
11-21-2009, 04:54 PM
Chiefs over Steelers, calling it now!

BleedBurgundy96
11-21-2009, 05:07 PM
Chiefs over Steelers, calling it now!

Now thats really going out on a limb lol. I dont see anyway the Chiefs upset the Steelers. Then again ive said that before then the other team pulls the upset.

BmoreBlackByrdz
11-21-2009, 05:09 PM
Bucs over Saints is very possible I am concerned a bit with all the injuries we're having. Reggie Bush, Lance Moore, Sedrick Ellis, Tracy Porter and Jabari Greer all ruled out. That's both starting Corners, DT, our punt returner/RB specialist, and one our role player WRs. So yeah we're hurting..

and the Bucs haven't looked bad the past few weeks, since Freeman stepped in they look rejuvenated and are playing hard.

My thoughts EXACTLY. Saints have been playing ugly football and pulling out wins thanks to Brees, but I think if they play another poor game and Tampa plays the way they've played recently, I think this could be a HUGE upset.

Jvig43
11-21-2009, 05:17 PM
I'm going with chiefs steelers.

Iamcanadian
11-21-2009, 05:17 PM
Houston may well upset Indy tomorrow. Indy was exceptionally high for the NE game and could easily come out flat for Houston. This is the type of situation that often produces upsets or the reason a team like Houston at least covers the spread.
It is my experience that when 2 top teams play each other the winner is often flat for the following game.
Cincy would be another good example after beating the Steelers. That is why the Raiders beat the Eagles earlier in the season.
Teams get up for the better teams on their schedule, it is the weaker teams that cause them to come out flat and this is particularly true after playing a top team.

Jvig43
11-21-2009, 05:20 PM
Houston may well upset Indy tomorrow. Indy was exceptionally high for the NE game and could easily come out flat for Houston. This is the type of situation that often produces upsets or the reason a team like Houston at least covers the spread.
It is my experience that when 2 top teams play each other the winner is often flat for the following game.

Indy plays the Ravens tomorrow

Bengalsrocket
11-21-2009, 05:22 PM
It is my experience that when 2 top teams play each other the winner is often flat for the following game.

This is interesting, do you have any data to back it up?

RaiderNation
11-21-2009, 05:25 PM
Gradkowskizzzzzz for the win!

BleedBurgundy96
11-21-2009, 05:30 PM
This is interesting, do you have any data to back it up?

It doesnt always happen. I have seen it alot though since ive been watching football. Look at the Cowboys last week. They lost in Green Bay to the Packers 7-17 after winning a huge NFC East game in Philly on SNF 20-16.

It usually happens more to teams that are either not use to winning or dont have top leadership at key positions/head coach. You usually dont see it from teams like the Colts and Patriots.

Iamcanadian
11-21-2009, 05:33 PM
Indy plays the Ravens tomorrow

Oops but the theory still holds.

BleedBurgundy96
11-21-2009, 05:36 PM
Oops but the theory still holds.

The Colts do play the Texans after the Ravens game so I can see why you got mixed up. It happens.

Shane P. Hallam
11-21-2009, 05:37 PM
Oops but the theory still holds.

The Ravens are favored by 1 point.

Bengalsrocket
11-21-2009, 05:37 PM
Oops but the theory still holds.

You still have no data backing this theory up lol. I'm honestly interested in this subject, but I just don't see it having any merit being based off your "experience" and memory.

PalmerToCJ
11-21-2009, 05:39 PM
Bengals have had all kinds of big wins this year and not come out flat. If anything you could argue not having Benson would hurt things, that would be a relevant argument.

No way the Steelers lose two in a row, especially to the Chiefs.

BleedBurgundy96
11-21-2009, 05:39 PM
The Ravens are favored by 1 point.

The Ravens were favored by 1 when the line opened. In todays paper it has the Colts now favored by 1.

I think it just depends where you look.

Ravens1991
11-21-2009, 05:40 PM
The Ravens are favored by 1 point.

I am still shocked that is the line.

Shane P. Hallam
11-21-2009, 05:42 PM
Bengals have had all kinds of big wins this year and not come out flat. If anything you could argue not having Benson would hurt things, that would be a relevant argument.

No way the Steelers lose two in a row, especially to the Chiefs.

Or that they have never won in Oakland.

Bengalsrocket
11-21-2009, 05:44 PM
Or that they have never won in Oakland.

I hate stats like these. The last 9 games in Oakland were different teams, with different schemes and different personnel. These kind of stats are only relevant to teams that play nearly every year or are in the same division.

T-RICH49
11-21-2009, 05:45 PM
Chiefs over Steelers, calling it now!

I'm as big a homer as it gets and evem I think that's crazy

Iamcanadian
11-21-2009, 05:50 PM
This is interesting, do you have any data to back it up?

All I can tell you is that over the years I have won a lot of money based on this theory in every sport. Of course, nothing works 100% of the time, strange circumstances happen all the time in games, an interception run back for a TD or a fluke play like the one where Denver beat Cincy can spoil the upset. However if you believe that emotion plays a big part in winning football games then it is just common sense that Indy and NE were both particularly high emotionally when they played, ditto for Cincy and Pittsburgh and that it won't be easy for the HC to get his players fired up for the following game provided it isn't against another top NFL team. The losing team is more likely to be fired up since they lost a big game but the winning team usually comes out pretty flat for their next game unless they are playing say a New Orleans or a Minny type team, then all bets are off.
The best situation occurs when a top teams plays another top team followed by a weak team followed by another top team. In these circumstances, it is really tough for a HC to keep his players high for the middle team. Players think the middle game is an easy victory and come out flat looking ahead to the following tougher team. In these circumstances I have had an exceptionally winning record in predicting upsets although both situations do produces a high rate of covering the spread even if the top team holds on for a victory.

BleedBurgundy96
11-21-2009, 05:56 PM
Iamcanadian I agree with what you are saying to a extent. I have seen this happen over the years. The upset doesnt always happen but teams after a big win sometimes do play down to their opponent the next week. It happens more with teams that really needed the win the week before and got it only to lose to a team they shouldnt have the next week.

My Redskins have done it alot over the last 15 years. They win a big game or get on a hot streak and then fall flat and lose to a terrible team. The Skins loss in 2008 to the Rams is a perfect example.

I do think its more rare if it happens to a team with a good Head Coach or Quarterback. Usually their leadership doesnt allow things like this to happen.

djp
11-21-2009, 05:59 PM
I could see Minnesota being dealt a good game by Seattle. Hasselbeck can get hot and Houshmanzadeh was really good last week.

gsorace
11-21-2009, 06:14 PM
The Jets WILL beat the Pats...again

BleedBurgundy96
11-21-2009, 07:17 PM
I could see Minnesota being dealt a good game by Seattle. Hasselbeck can get hot and Houshmanzadeh was really good last week.

Agreed.

I dont think Seattle will win but they will give Minnesota a good game.

CJSchneider
11-21-2009, 07:25 PM
Bucs over Saints is very possible I am concerned a bit with all the injuries we're having. Reggie Bush, Lance Moore, Sedrick Ellis, Tracy Porter and Jabari Greer all ruled out. That's both starting Corners, DT, our punt returner/RB specialist, and one our role player WRs. So yeah we're hurting..

and the Bucs haven't looked bad the past few weeks, since Freeman stepped in they look rejuvenated and are playing hard.

Rodger that. Injuries have me worried about our chances this week.

Rosebud
11-21-2009, 07:27 PM
Redskins will beat the spread, but I don't know if they'll actually get the win. It's an NFC East game and the cowboys are coming off of a miserable performance.

BleedBurgundy96
11-21-2009, 07:33 PM
Redskins will beat the spread, but I don't know if they'll actually get the win. It's an NFC East game and the cowboys are coming off of a miserable performance.

It should be a close game.

I think the Skins will pull out a 20-17 win. Then again im a Skins fan so im biased LOL.

Rosebud
11-21-2009, 07:36 PM
It should be a close game.

I think the Skins will pull out a 20-17 win. Then again im a Skins fan so im biased LOL.

It's the NFC East, we usually end up splitting our season serieses somehow so I expect Washington to give Dallas a game.

BleedBurgundy96
11-21-2009, 07:55 PM
It's the NFC East, we usually end up splitting our season serieses somehow so I expect Washington to give Dallas a game.

Yeah I agree 100%. The Skins/Boys are 5-5 over the last 10 games in the series. 7 of the last 10 have been decided by 5 pts or less. It should be a good game.

vidae
11-21-2009, 07:59 PM
I'm as big a homer as it gets and evem I think that's crazy

Hah, exactly.

Matthew Jones
11-21-2009, 08:06 PM
I picked the Rams - they've been playing pretty well and I think the Cardinals are a little bit overrated. They've got home-field advantage in the game, too.

Bengalsrocket
11-21-2009, 08:17 PM
All I can tell you is that over the years I have won a lot of money based on this theory in every sport. Of course, nothing works 100% of the time, strange circumstances happen all the time in games, an interception run back for a TD or a fluke play like the one where Denver beat Cincy can spoil the upset. However if you believe that emotion plays a big part in winning football games then it is just common sense that Indy and NE were both particularly high emotionally when they played, ditto for Cincy and Pittsburgh and that it won't be easy for the HC to get his players fired up for the following game provided it isn't against another top NFL team. The losing team is more likely to be fired up since they lost a big game but the winning team usually comes out pretty flat for their next game unless they are playing say a New Orleans or a Minny type team, then all bets are off.
The best situation occurs when a top teams plays another top team followed by a weak team followed by another top team. In these circumstances, it is really tough for a HC to keep his players high for the middle team. Players think the middle game is an easy victory and come out flat looking ahead to the following tougher team. In these circumstances I have had an exceptionally winning record in predicting upsets although both situations do produces a high rate of covering the spread even if the top team holds on for a victory.

That's a pretty interesting theory, I'm going to keep my eye out for it the rest of the season. I really never took notice to it in the past, weird.

619
11-21-2009, 08:45 PM
Bengals have had all kinds of big wins this year and not come out flat. If anything you could argue not having Benson would hurt things, that would be a relevant argument.

Keep telling yourself that. You don't understand Oakland, they are a team that rides completely on emotion. If the offense under Gradkowski manages to get key first downs and a couple of scores it will more than likely light the spark needed to get our defense going again like it is capable of. Either way I'm expecting us to keep it close in a low-scoring game much like when we faced the Chargers the last time around.

Hines
11-21-2009, 09:02 PM
I am torn between the Bucs over Saints and Raiders over the Bengals. Bengals have never won in Oakland and Oakland does have a good defense. I can see the Bengals being one dimensional tomorrow with Benson being out.

Jughead10
11-21-2009, 10:47 PM
I am still shocked that is the line.

It was a terrible line by Vegas. The fact that it moved two full points so quickly shows this.

ThePudge
11-21-2009, 10:49 PM
I am torn between the Bucs over Saints and Raiders over the Bengals. Bengals have never won in Oakland and Oakland does have a good defense. I can see the Bengals being one dimensional tomorrow with Benson being out.

You think they'll run Bernard Scott/Brian Leonard/Larry Johnson too much? I'm fairly sure they'll be pretty conservative in Oakland tomorrow and let Carson work off his run game.

BleedBurgundy96
11-21-2009, 10:54 PM
You think they'll run Bernard Scott/Brian Leonard/Larry Johnson too much? I'm fairly sure they'll be pretty conservative in Oakland tomorrow and let Carson work off his run game.

I think he means the Bengal run game will be shutdown and it will force Palmer to have to make more plays to win the game. I could be wrong but I think that is what he was saying in his post.

Hines
11-21-2009, 11:09 PM
You think they'll run Bernard Scott/Brian Leonard/Larry Johnson too much? I'm fairly sure they'll be pretty conservative in Oakland tomorrow and let Carson work off his run game.

I think he means the Bengal run game will be shutdown and it will force Palmer to have to make more plays to win the game. I could be wrong but I think that is what he was saying in his post.

What BB96 said.

LonghornsLegend
11-21-2009, 11:13 PM
Cardinals pretty easily, I easy have the Rams winning this week.

They are coming off a pretty impressive performance, and you never know which Cardinals team will show up week to week, 5 INT Kurt Warner or 5 TD Kurt Warner. Either way, I think the Rams have got some momentum going into this week.

bored of education
11-21-2009, 11:16 PM
I really think the Chiefs will win. The Steelers have lost that loving feeling. I HATE WHEN SHE DOES THAT!

Jvig43
11-22-2009, 12:03 AM
The Jets WILL beat the Pats...again

Pats are either going to come out flat, and have a very meh season, or come out firing on all cylinders and turn it on for the rest of the season after that loss sunday night. Ususally how it goes. I wouldnt take the Jets beating us twice, let alone at home.

BleedBurgundy96
11-22-2009, 12:11 AM
Pats are either going to come out flat, and have a very meh season, or come out firing on all cylinders and turn it on for the rest of the season after that loss sunday night. Ususally how it goes. I wouldnt take the Jets beating us twice, let alone at home.

The Patriots will...

1) Get revenge on Rex Ryan and the Jets for all the hype that surrounded the first meeting this season.

2) Want to come out and destroy the Jets after the sour taste left in their mouth from the loss last week to the Colts.

I am pretty sure Belichick and Brady will lay it on a Jets team that has pretty much fallen apart. Before the first meeting Rex Ryan was talking smack but now his team is weak and he was crying like a girl in the locker room.

Im pretty sure the Patriots will blow out the Jets tomorrow.

vikes_28
11-22-2009, 01:09 AM
I could see Minnesota being dealt a good game by Seattle. Hasselbeck can get hot and Houshmanzadeh was really good last week.

Isn't this the Vikings story every week?

AussieBoy
11-22-2009, 01:57 AM
My Cards are due to lay another egg against a much lower credentialled team.

BleedBurgundy96
11-22-2009, 02:06 AM
After looking at how the votes have been spread out so far it really does show you the state of parody in the NFL nowadays. Even with 8 games where teams are favored by 9 or more points most of them have a solid amount of votes.

Only the Steeler and Viking games seem to be safe. Watch both lose tomorrow LOL.

Iamcanadian
11-22-2009, 03:56 AM
Originally Posted by PalmerToCJ
Bengals have had all kinds of big wins this year and not come out flat. If anything you could argue not having Benson would hurt things, that would be a relevant argument.


H...mmm, they beat Pittsburgh in their 1st match and the next week they beat the ugh, Browns by 3 points. If that isn't an example of what often happens after a big win, my theory is wrong but it sure looks like it proves my point.

BleedBurgundy96
11-22-2009, 03:25 PM
Congrats to the 3 people who picked the Chiefs. Insane pick. Nice job.

bored of education
11-22-2009, 03:28 PM
I had faith, lots and lots of faith in my Chiefs!

Bengalsrocket
11-22-2009, 03:30 PM
Chiefs over Steelers, calling it now!

I was the first, because I'm a complete genius.

Splat
11-22-2009, 03:34 PM
I had faith, lots and lots of faith in my Chiefs!

I'm still in shock.

MetSox17
11-22-2009, 03:38 PM
It was all because of Jamaal Football.

D-Unit
11-22-2009, 03:39 PM
Look at these fools that picked the Redskins! Caaamaaaan man! These are the CowboyZZzzzzzzz!

BamaFalcon59, CT Bronco Fan, FuzzyGopher, Go_Eagles77, Hurricanes25, j05son, princefielder28, Raider_fan_Canada, Rosebud, skinzzfan25, The Dynasty, vidae, wicket

T-RICH49
11-22-2009, 03:39 PM
I was the first, because I'm a complete genius.

lottery numbers...NOW :)

Flyboy
11-22-2009, 03:42 PM
You guys were saying? lawlz

Big Lob
11-22-2009, 03:59 PM
The Bucs looked very very bad today. Surprised they got the second most picks.

BleedBurgundy96
11-22-2009, 04:02 PM
Look at these fools that picked the Redskins! Caaamaaaan man! These are the CowboyZZzzzzzzz!


Fools? The only fools were the people in Vegas making the Cowboys 11 pt favs and the Cowboys fans on this forum predicting a blowout LOL.

Auron
11-22-2009, 04:03 PM
In all fairness though the Bucs came out today and looked very strong out the gates... Freeman kept plays alive, moved very well, made plays with his legs, and got the Bucs an early score. It wasn't until Greg Williams started bringing the heat that Freeman really started to struggle. Kind of surprising to see Williams be passive at the start.

If Brees doesn't lead that excellent Two minute drill at the end of the first half to put the Saints up 17-7... that game could have been a lot closer than the game it ended up being... that quick drive really took the wind of the Bucs sails... and they came out in the 2nd half looking like a different team than the one that started the game.

BleedBurgundy96
11-22-2009, 04:05 PM
The Bucs looked very very bad today. Surprised they got the second most picks.

They had played well in their last couple games vs GB and MIA. The Saints also had alot of injuries leading up to this game and hadnt been looking as good in their recent games.

Bengalsrocket
11-22-2009, 06:23 PM
lottery numbers...NOW :)

Well I also assumed the Bengals would blow out the Raiders, so I'm not psychic.

Iamcanadian
11-22-2009, 06:30 PM
Originally Posted by Iamcanadian
All I can tell you is that over the years I have won a lot of money based on this theory in every sport. Of course, nothing works 100% of the time, strange circumstances happen all the time in games, an interception run back for a TD or a fluke play like the one where Denver beat Cincy can spoil the upset. However if you believe that emotion plays a big part in winning football games then it is just common sense that Indy and NE were both particularly high emotionally when they played, ditto for Cincy and Pittsburgh and that it won't be easy for the HC to get his players fired up for the following game provided it isn't against another top NFL team. The losing team is more likely to be fired up since they lost a big game but the winning team usually comes out pretty flat for their next game unless they are playing say a New Orleans or a Minny type team, then all bets are off.
The best situation occurs when a top teams plays another top team followed by a weak team followed by another top team. In these circumstances, it is really tough for a HC to keep his players high for the middle team. Players think the middle game is an easy victory and come out flat looking ahead to the following tougher team. In these circumstances I have had an exceptionally winning record in predicting upsets although both situations do produces a high rate of covering the spread even if the top team holds on for a victory.

Looks like my theory held up pretty well. Baltimore covered the spread against Indt and Cincy lost to the Raiders.

Shane P. Hallam
11-22-2009, 06:32 PM
Baltimore didn't cover any spread I have seen... Best for them was +1 I think. Didn't hit +2 until right before kickoff, and they still didn't cover.

Bengalsrocket
11-22-2009, 06:34 PM
Looks like my theory held up pretty well. Baltimore covered the spread against Indt and Cincy lost to the Raiders.

For 1 week, I'll give it to you. Like I said, I'll be watching all year to see if it holds up.

yo123
11-22-2009, 06:49 PM
Baltimore didn't cover any spread I have seen... Best for them was +1 I think. Didn't hit +2 until right before kickoff, and they still didn't cover.



Yeah I had the Colts -1.5

wicket
11-22-2009, 07:09 PM
crap i had the skins, just missed

BleedBurgundy96
11-23-2009, 09:27 PM
I forgot to say congrats to the guys who picked the Raiders in the upset yesterday.

Congrats once again to the guys who called the Chiefs win also.

CC.SD
11-23-2009, 11:55 PM
Okay the Raiders beat the Eagles so downing Cincy wasn't impossible, but whoever picked the Chiefs over the Steelers should get a ******* medal.

except Bengalsrocket who was clearly just looking for some karma :D