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View Full Version : Locker did not get first round grade...


drmoyer421
12-18-2009, 07:43 PM
From NBC's profootballtalk.com..

For those of you who admire the dedication and/or question the sanity of Washington quarterback Jake Locker for deciding not to enter the NFL draft in what could be the last year of the big-money windfalls at the top of the pecking order, the decision to stay in school isn't as honorable and/or stupid as previously believed.

As pointed out in the Associated Press article regarding Locker's decision not to forgo his final season of college eligibility, Locker had submitted his name for consideration to the NFL Collegiate Advisory Committee, which estimates where a player might be drafted.

Despite a proclamation by ESPN's Todd McShay that Locker would/should/could be the first overall pick, a league source tells us that Locker didn't receive a first-round grade from the Advisory Committee.

The source concedes that Locker might have still be drafted in round one given the value of the position, but the source insists that McShay was flat wrong in his assessment of Locker.

"That's the problem," the source opined. "McShay is clueless. Up until three weeks before the 2008 draft, he said that [Kentucky's] Andre Woodson would be a first-round pick. He went in the sixth and is out of the league."

And the source explained that these opinions come not from the same-old rant by NFL scouts that guys like McShay and Mel Kiper have the luxury of popping off with no accountability as long as it all sounds good (the same-old rant has a significant amount of accuracy, by the way), but from concerns that guys like McShay do kids a disservice by pumping up their expectations.

"The problem I have with people like McShay saying stupid things is parents and others who 'advise' these kids think McShay knows what he is talking about," the source said. "And they believe him before they believe the Advisory Committee. Then, when the kids go a lot lower than projected they are pissed and/or depressed. . . . This stuff happens every year and we have to deal with the broken hearts because people who don't know what they are talking about put visions of grandeur into young players' heads."

This item isn't intended to be a shot at McShay. But if the Advisory Committee didn't give a first-round grade to the guy that McShay had at the top of his board, then something is wrong with this picture. And we're inclined to think the defect doesn't come from the Committee made up of folks who scout players for a living -- and whose ongoing careers depend not on their ability to talk smoothly about their views, but on whether enough of the players whom they believe to be good players become good players.

Splat
12-18-2009, 07:46 PM
http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=37116&page=10

Its all ready been posted but ya McShay got owned.

CashmoneyDrew
12-18-2009, 11:47 PM
The advisory board is ridiculously conservative.

foozball
12-18-2009, 11:58 PM
...does that mean Scott was wrong about Jake too?

HeavyLeggedWaistBender
12-19-2009, 12:12 AM
...does that mean Scott was wrong about Jake too?

Have fun on your vacation ;)

BeerBaron
12-19-2009, 12:16 AM
The advisory board is ridiculously conservative.

The owner of a certain site we all enjoy also had Locker rated about as high as he could go....to have him completely out of the first round is just too conservative even for the advisory board...

Something just doesn't seem right in it all.

foozball
12-19-2009, 12:34 AM
Have fun on your vacation ;)

Pshh...it's no knock on SW. He had a blog post saying the same thing McShay said...that Locker would likely have been a top 5 pick. "There is little doubt that Locker was destined for the Top 5 and a very good chance he would've been the #1 overall pick in the 2010 NFL draft."

It wasn't just SW or McShay...EVERYONE had Locker going top 5.

ElectricEye
12-19-2009, 12:35 AM
The owner of a certain site we all enjoy also had Locker rated about as high as he could go....to have him completely out of the first round is just too conservative even for the advisory board...

Something just doesn't seem right in it all.

It's not surprising to me. I wish I could track down the link, but some of the things they say are flat out of line with the way most people think. The draft is relativity easy to predict from a broad perspective, especially after the college football season is over and underclassmen start declaring. I'm not saying you can be accurate, but you can paint a picture, like Scott does. The picture painted by the advisory committee is often completely out of line with the way things end up being and are perceived.

eaglesalltheway
12-19-2009, 12:58 AM
Methinks the Shark paid the advisory board to give him a low grade and bring him back. /end semi-sarcastic "rant".

FUNBUNCHER
12-19-2009, 01:38 AM
Does anyone really believe Locker would not have been selected in the 20, let alone the top 5??

The NFL Advisory Committee is on crack if they believe Locker would not have commanded a 1st round selection, if not #1 overall.

IMO this is a non-story.

NIN1984
12-19-2009, 01:56 AM
if McShay got owned we all got owned, who didn't have him going in the first round? hell, who didn't have him going in the top 10?

i disagree with the advisory committee, that's for sure.

TACKLE
12-19-2009, 02:00 AM
The advisory board is ridiculously conservative.

This is true. But its better that they be overly conservative than give someone the wrong information leading them to make a decision they'll later regret.

descendency
12-19-2009, 02:06 AM
LMAO@All of the McShay hate.

McShay isn't the idiot you all try to make him out to be. McShay has been right on Colt McCoy for over a year now.

niel89
12-19-2009, 02:23 AM
LMAO@All of the McShay hate.

McShay isn't the idiot you all try to make him out to be. McShay has been right on Colt McCoy for over a year now.

How has he been right on Colt McCoy? He hasn't even played a down in the NFL yet.

BroadwayJoe10
12-19-2009, 02:26 AM
LMAO@All of the McShay hate.

McShay isn't the idiot you all try to make him out to be. McShay has been right on Colt McCoy for over a year now.


It's not hate, but the source has an extremely valid point. If McShay pumps up some players' expectations, and they get dropped, like the source said, McShay doesn't have to deal with the repercussions. The advisory committee is looking out for the best interest of the player, McShay has nothing invested in the athlete.

I agree that they are overly conservative, but maybe there's something that we all don't know about the kid; it's not like the committee is trying to screw him over.

vikes_28
12-19-2009, 02:38 AM
Todd McShay just has a job so he can argue with Mel Kiper.

Scott Wright
12-19-2009, 02:55 AM
I posted this in another thread but it's probably worth repeating here:


Two Possible Explanations:

1) That Report Isn't Accurate

2) Teams Getting the Tape Late REALLY Hurt Their Evaluations

Now it's not as though I think Jake Locker is a sure-fire franchise quarterback. However, every "Real" NFL source I've spoken to talks GLOWINGLY about Locker. They love him. Locker not getting a Top 10 grade, let alone a first round grade, goes against everything I have heard.

They really went after McShay in that piece too. I think that was uncalled for.


Also, I certainly don't agree with McShay all the time but he seems like a pretty solid guy based on my brief interactions with him at the Senior Bowl. I think it's pretty low to take shots at a guy like that and not even be man enough to attatch your name to the quotes.

niel89
12-19-2009, 03:09 AM
I have to agree. McShay isn't my favorite but calling him out like that is wrong.

TitanHope
12-19-2009, 03:09 AM
I posted this in another thread but it's probably worth repeating here:



Also, I certainly don't agree with McShay all the time but he seems like a pretty solid guy based on my brief interactions with him at the Senior Bowl. I think it's pretty low to take shots at a guy like that and not even be man enough to attatch your name to the quotes.

Do I sense a little draftnik bromance? Cuz I think I do. ;)

Scott Wright
12-19-2009, 03:19 AM
Do I sense a little draftnik bromance? Cuz I think I do. ;)

Gotta stick up for my fellow draftniks! :)

Paranoidmoonduck
12-19-2009, 04:21 AM
I'm curious, because I think I can count on my fingers the number of times I've heard a first-round grade reported from a reliable source. It is my understanding that the draft advisory committee basically gives you your floor draft position, and the 2nd round would probably be the most realistic for Locker from that perspective.

I doubt either Clausen or Bradford wind up getting rated any higher, and I think all three would have probably wound up going in the first round. Surely an agent told Locker this, so this couldn't have been the biggest playing point in his decision.

RealityCheck
12-19-2009, 05:13 AM
The Underclassman Advisory Board sucks. They gave Greg Hardy a third-round grade, and now this?

prock
12-19-2009, 10:20 AM
Jake Locker doesn't get a first round grade? Who would be mad if their team spent a top 10 pick on him? This story is ridiculous.

PossibleCabbage
12-19-2009, 10:41 AM
The Underclassman Advisory Board sucks. They gave Greg Hardy a third-round grade, and now this?

Well, think about it.

1) The draft advisory board doesn't take into account things like team needs and position value. It's not worth their time to pay attention to which teams need what and what schemes make certain positions more valuable to some teams than others.

2) The draft advisory board gives a grade based on what would happen is everybody drafting is reasonable and well-informed (and lacks biases for or against certain positions.) The actual draft, as we know, is not conducted by purely reasonable agents. You can be pretty sure that they didn't give DHB a top 10 grade or Josh Freeman a first round grade last year, but here we are.

3) In the interest of advising underclassmen, it's only responsible to err on the side of conservatism. Since a player coming out earlier than he should and landing in a bad situation can have a profoundly negative effect on not only that guy's career, but that guy's life outside of football. You're advising 21 year olds, you don't want to push them towards any decisions that they might end up greatly regretting in a few years.

I'm personally curious as to how many QBs got first round grades this year. Since if Locker didn't get one, I don't think you can honestly give one to Bradford.

Scott Wright
12-19-2009, 10:45 AM
As I've always said the Underclassmen Advisory Board is extremely conservative. They don't want to tell a guy he's going to be a first round pick only to have him fall to the third round.

Also, keep in mind that due to a legal issue teams did not begin receiving this year's game film until very recently. Like within the last two to four weeks. That, combined with so many extra underclassmen requesting grades, has really put a strain on this year's process.

herbst
12-19-2009, 11:54 AM
Also, keep in mind that due to a legal issue teams did not begin receiving this year's game film until very recently. Like within the last two to four weeks. That, combined with so many extra underclassmen requesting grades, has really put a strain on this year's process.

Also keep in mind Locker submitted his application to the Advisory Committee on Monday 12/7, and early Monday 12/14, he made his decision. That's 5 working days and I doubt the committee is that quick, given they receive hundreds of applications each year. Locker's dad, his coach, himself have been interviewed by local reporters that he made his decision before receiving the grade (in fact, he withdrew his application).

The fact this blog writer not only blasts McShay as clueless (very unprofessional), but that he also is accusing Locker, a college kid who is making the right decision to come back based on a set of reasons detailed in a local newspaper, as being "not honorable." This is heresay, and libel.

If he's going to blast Locker for not being true in his decision, then he needs to have more information to back it up than one anonymous league source.

Read Seattle Times article on Locker's dad even asking Jake if he wasn't going to wait to hear from the Committee before making his decision that Monday 12/14.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/huskyfootballblog/2010527390_scott_locker_talks_about_jakes.html

jballa838
12-19-2009, 11:59 AM
if he isn't a first round grade QB, who the hell is?

TACKLE
12-19-2009, 12:05 PM
if he isn't a first round grade QB, who the hell is?

You know that other QB who has a big arm, 4.4 speed, excellent intangibles, played in a pro-style offense had carried his team on his back every week.

jballa838
12-19-2009, 12:09 PM
You know that other QB who has a big arm, 4.4 speed, excellent intangibles, played in a pro-style offense had carried his team on his back every week.
thats what i was thinking. how can i forget about that guy?

king2am
12-19-2009, 12:18 PM
So this means Tebow will be an undrafted free agent.

Babylon
12-19-2009, 12:53 PM
I would like to know who actually makes up this advisory board. Probably the same bunch that is putting together health care reform.

My guess is they just look at a player and give a very conservative grade and really dont look at it in terms of some mock draft. Locker probably gets a 2nd round grade not taking into account that there arent 32 players out there better than him, in this case probably not 5 players out there better.

BigBanger
12-19-2009, 12:58 PM
Second round grade is fair. I'd give him a late first, but I'm happy he made the right decision. Having top 10 potential and being worthy of a top 10 pick are two vastly different things. Locker would have been a top 10 pick based solely on the position he plays.

Babylon
12-19-2009, 01:06 PM
Second round grade is fair. I'd give him a late first, but I'm happy he made the right decision. Having top 10 potential and being worthy of a top 10 pick are two vastly different things. Locker would have been a top 10 pick based solely on the position he plays.

What would justify a second round grade? If it's based on experience in that offense there i could maybe see it but by any other criteria you can think of he isnt a 2nd round talent.

TACKLE
12-19-2009, 01:27 PM
Second round grade is fair. I'd give him a late first, but I'm happy he made the right decision. Having top 10 potential and being worthy of a top 10 pick are two vastly different things. Locker would have been a top 10 pick based solely on the position he plays.

Have you actually watched him play?

descendency
12-19-2009, 05:07 PM
You know that other QB who has a big arm, 4.4 speed, excellent intangibles, played in a pro-style offense had carried his team on his back every week.

Jimmy Clausen? :rolleyes:

Clausen, Bradford, McCoy? (I have him graded out as a 4th rounder), Tebow? (see McCoy), Ryan Mallett, Tony Pike? (graded as a second to third rounder), erm... I don't know.

How has he been right on Colt McCoy? He hasn't even played a down in the NFL yet.

How can he be wrong about anyone then? So that means he's just as good as the best draft analyst in 2009. I think that makes him the best draft analyst.

edit: Who is on the Advisory Board?

RealityCheck
12-19-2009, 06:14 PM
You know that other QB who has a big arm, 4.4 speed, excellent intangibles, and cries every week.
Fixed for the lolz.

yourfavestoner
12-19-2009, 07:57 PM
You know that other QB who has a big arm, 4.4 speed, excellent intangibles, played in a pro-style offense had carried his team on his back every week.

Jacory Harris has a big arm?

ElectricEye
12-19-2009, 08:16 PM
Jacory Harris has a big arm?

Jacory Harris has 4.4 speed?

niel89
12-19-2009, 08:32 PM
Jacory Harris has 4.4 speed?

Jacory Harris has a team?

TitanHope
12-20-2009, 12:52 AM
As I've always said the Underclassmen Advisory Board is extremely conservative. They don't want to tell a guy he's going to be a first round pick only to have him fall to the third round.

Also, keep in mind that due to a legal issue teams did not begin receiving this year's game film until very recently. Like within the last two to four weeks. That, combined with so many extra underclassmen requesting grades, has really put a strain on this year's process.

What legal issue? Can you elaborate, Scott?