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View Full Version : Prospects that will probably come out when they shouldn't??


DreadedDatSkinsFan
12-21-2009, 06:52 PM
Every year you have a ton of Redshirt Sophmores and Juniors that enter the draft and as soon as you hear/read their name, you sit there with the WTF face. Of course it's gonna happen this year, so my question is what players do you see making a mistake coming out too early???

The first player that comes to mind is.......

Joe McKnight- I believe if he went back to school for his SR year he may have a chance of being drafted in the late first- early second round granted he were to have a great season. This year I see him falling to perhaps the 6th round (similar to Chauncey Washington, although he returned to school)

murdamal86
12-21-2009, 07:18 PM
This should be good

phlysac
12-21-2009, 08:42 PM
Greg Romeus - DE - Pittsburgh.

Already has stock that may land him in the 1st round. With that said, he still lacks enough rush technique that allows him to be swallowed up at times. He can also sometimes lose focus of setting the edge in the run game.

All of these issues, I believe are simply a symptom of his inexperience.

He's an amazing talent already considering he's only been playing football since his Sr year of highschool.

Iamcanadian
12-22-2009, 12:08 AM
Every year you have a ton of Redshirt Sophmores and Juniors that enter the draft and as soon as you hear/read their name, you sit there with the WTF face. Of course it's gonna happen this year, so my question is what players do you see making a mistake coming out too early???

The first player that comes to mind is.......

Joe McKnight- I believe if he went back to school for his SR year he may have a chance of being drafted in the late first- early second round granted he were to have a great season. This year I see him falling to perhaps the 6th round (similar to Chauncey Washington, although he returned to school)

If McKnight has any pro talent, he'll show it in the post season draft process, if he doesn't it really won't matter when he comes out.
People laughed at Sanchez for coming out but he showed in the post season that he had plenty of talent and shot up draft boards at a tremendous rate.
The pros really don't care that much about your college production, that will get you an invite to the Senior Bowl and the Combine but you had better produce when you get there or you'll drop like a stone. Similarly, if you show up at the combine and dominate, you'll shoot up draft boards at an accelerated rate.
Many players who declare have either eligibility problems and won't get to play if they return to school or have no intension of returning to school.
The only players who shouldn't declare are maybe top 10 potential talents who have been informed that in this draft, they won't go that high, the difference in money may make it well worth their time to return to school.

holt_bruce81
12-22-2009, 12:13 AM
I understand the decision for Jimmy Clausen to enter the draft, I mean he'll probably be a top 10 pick. But he could use another year in college, he has a lot of maturing to do IMO.

superman8456
12-22-2009, 12:15 AM
Earl Thomas shouldnt.

He's a great player, but he's not going to go very high because of the depth at safety this year. Also, he has the negative of not having ideal height/weight.

JRTPlaya21
12-22-2009, 12:39 AM
Major Wright & Ahmad Black. And Earl Thomas will more then likely get that first round grade that he covets.

CashmoneyDrew
12-22-2009, 12:55 AM
Dennis Rogan. He'll be a 5th rounder at best IMO, but if he stayed one more year he could probably go in the third.

JFLO
12-22-2009, 05:05 AM
Earl Thomas shouldnt.

He's a great player, but he's not going to go very high because of the depth at safety this year. Also, he has the negative of not having ideal height/weight.

Earl Thomas is going to be picked in the Top 20, maybe even before Taylor Mays, depending on where the dart lands in Oakland.

My player would be either Evan Royster or Carlos Dunlap.

Day One Pick
12-22-2009, 05:26 AM
Greg Romeus - DE - Pittsburgh.

Already has stock that may land him in the 1st round. With that said, he still lacks enough rush technique that allows him to be swallowed up at times. He can also sometimes lose focus of setting the edge in the run game.

All of these issues, I believe are simply a symptom of his inexperience.

He's an amazing talent already considering he's only been playing football since his Sr year of highschool.

Romeus could be a very high pick in the 2011 draft. Right now with all the talented DE prospects, most of whom are more polished at this point I can't see Romeus getting drafted any higher than about 25th overall and that's best case scenario. More realistically he would probably fall to the top of the 2nd. Next year he could be as high as 15th with an outside shot at the top 10.

Day One Pick
12-22-2009, 05:27 AM
Earl Thomas is going to be picked in the Top 20, maybe even before Taylor Mays, depending on where the dart lands in Oakland.

My player would be either Evan Royster or Carlos Dunlap.

I agree, Thomas should come out now. I also agree he could get drafted ahead of Mays.

PickedOffTwice
12-22-2009, 06:00 AM
Dennis Rogan. He'll be a 5th rounder at best IMO, but if he stayed one more year he could probably go in the third.

yeah. But try to see where some of these guys are coming from. Many football players don't come from a lot. If he goes pro now, he will be signed for 5th round money, like probably 500k a year. Now I don't know how many real jobs you know, that pay like that. Especially fresh outta University. I don't know any. (Probably had the wrong major, though. ;-P).

If he's going back and is going to injure himself, as a projected 5th rounder this year, he's probably not going to get drafted at all. And then he's bound to find a real job with his college degree.

Depending on your background and / or your desire for money, it's the smart move to come out asap.

Day One Pick
12-22-2009, 06:41 AM
yeah. But try to see where some of these guys are coming from. Many football players don't come from a lot. If he goes pro now, he will be signed for 5th round money, like probably 500k a year. Now I don't know how many real jobs you know, that pay like that. Especially fresh outta University. I don't know any. (Probably had the wrong major, though. ;-P).

If he's going back and is going to injure himself, as a projected 5th rounder this year, he's probably not going to get drafted at all. And then he's bound to find a real job with his college degree.

Depending on your background and / or your desire for money, it's the smart move to come out asap.

Some good points in this post.

Could you immagine the anxiety thinking about NFL money and trying to impress scouts but at the same time not get hurt and lose it all? I really feel for the few guys every year who see their dream and financial security go out the window because of an injury. It's the mid to late round guys who are all or nothing. When a highly touted prospect gets hurt his draft stock suffers and he loses money, but generally still gets drafted and still gets some money.

PickedOffTwice
12-22-2009, 06:54 AM
Some good points in this post.

Could you immagine the anxiety thinking about NFL money and trying to impress scouts but at the same time not get hurt and lose it all? I really feel for the few guys every year who see their dream and financial security go out the window because of an injury. It's the mid to late round guys who are all or nothing. When a highly touted prospect gets hurt his draft stock suffers and he loses money, but generally still gets drafted and still gets some money.

Thats' exactly the point. The mid round guys are the quiet victims in this game. A guy like Sam Bradford goes back to college, hurts his throwing shoulder and still gets projected in the first round.

Mid round guys should come out as soon as they are sure to be drafted.

Day One Pick
12-22-2009, 07:25 AM
Thats' exactly the point. The mid round guys are the quiet victims in this game. A guy like Sam Bradford goes back to college, hurts his throwing shoulder and still gets projected in the first round.

Mid round guys should come out as soon as they are sure to be drafted.

It's almost like playing the stock market.

Mr.KnowItAll
12-22-2009, 08:59 AM
Guys who will come out it looks like:
Chris Rainey
Shawnbrey McNeal
Von Miller- will get drafted in the first two rounds because of speed but has top 15 talent.
Travis Lewis- Same reason as Von Miller above

GaMeTiMe
12-22-2009, 09:02 AM
I think Anthony Davis and Bruce Campbell made the wrong decision. Both could go anywhere between 10-35 as of right now, but probably could have made the case to go #1 and #2 (like Suh and McCoy..?) next year, depending on who picked there.


I don't know if this topic is restricted to who will come out and not who already has, but in that case I'd say Brian Price. He can probably improve his stock into the top-15 if he goes nuts, but could be a top-10 lock next season.

Mr.KnowItAll
12-22-2009, 09:33 AM
If were adding players that declared already then Benn made a bad decision. He was right with Dez Bryant at the start of the season. Plus Illinois finally has a good offensive coordinator in Petrino coming in.

Day One Pick
12-22-2009, 11:11 AM
I think Anthony Davis and Bruce Campbell made the wrong decision. Both could go anywhere between 10-35 as of right now, but probably could have made the case to go #1 and #2 (like Suh and McCoy..?) next year, depending on who picked there.


I don't know if this topic is restricted to who will come out and not who already has, but in that case I'd say Brian Price. He can probably improve his stock into the top-15 if he goes nuts, but could be a top-10 lock next season.

Davis could go 5th to the Redskins or 6th to the Bills (depending on where they actually end up picking) Either way, I think he's safely in the top 10.

descendency
12-22-2009, 12:57 PM
Toby Gerhart = college level game speed, potential to come back and be in an elite offense with Andrew Luck. Not an NFL player in my opinion.

Ryan Mallett = He could go top 10 or he could go second round. If he's second round material, he DEFINITELY should return. He'll compete for the first QB taken and 1st overall.

Jevan Snead = See Ryan Mallett (minus the top 10 talk, he's a second to third round pick).

Any Center. Their ceiling is round 1.5 (late round 1). You just don't really lose that much.

Mid round guys should come out as soon as they are sure to be drafted.

There isn't much of a difference going in the 3rd than going undrafted. It's not worth having to work every day when you could live up the frat party life in college because you are a football player. (or whatever academic thing you want to claim)

jimbo
12-22-2009, 01:03 PM
I think Anthony Davis and Bruce Campbell made the wrong decision. Both could go anywhere between 10-35 as of right now, but probably could have made the case to go #1 and #2 (like Suh and McCoy..?) next year, depending on who picked there.


I don't know if this topic is restricted to who will come out and not who already has, but in that case I'd say Brian Price. He can probably improve his stock into the top-15 if he goes nuts, but could be a top-10 lock next season.

You think of Anthony Davis a lot higher than I do. He's a late first round pick.

superman8456
12-22-2009, 01:05 PM
You think of Anthony Davis a lot higher than I do. He's a late first round pick.

I highly doubt that Anthony Davis will slide past the 15th pick.

jimbo
12-22-2009, 01:16 PM
I highly doubt that Anthony Davis will slide past the 15th pick.

He's the 4th best tackle in this class, he probably will. If Detroit passes on a tackle, Anthony Davis is not going top 15.

descendency
12-22-2009, 01:34 PM
He's the 4th best tackle in this class, he probably will. If Detroit passes on a tackle, Anthony Davis is not going top 15.

Lots of people after detroit need a tackle. Right now Detroit is 2nd overall.

superman8456
12-22-2009, 01:36 PM
He's the 4th best tackle in this class, he probably will. If Detroit passes on a tackle, Anthony Davis is not going top 15.

Behind Okung and..........?

Babylon
12-22-2009, 01:59 PM
I think Anthony Davis and Bruce Campbell made the wrong decision. Both could go anywhere between 10-35 as of right now, but probably could have made the case to go #1 and #2 (like Suh and McCoy..?) next year, depending on who picked there.


I don't know if this topic is restricted to who will come out and not who already has, but in that case I'd say Brian Price. He can probably improve his stock into the top-15 if he goes nuts, but could be a top-10 lock next season.

I dont see Davis and Campbell ever being thought of that highly. If they stay till next years draft (i doubt they will) they'd be ranked well below guys like Locker, Mallett, Ingram and about 4 Wrs and that is just on that side of the ball.

eagles6606
12-22-2009, 02:08 PM
Cambell may have made the wrong decision, but Anthony Davis definately didn't. He is the most talented tackle prospect in this draft and, in my opinion, will go in the top 10. I would not be suprised to see Davis go over Okung if someone falls in love with Davis's humongous potential.

hagy34
12-22-2009, 02:15 PM
Does anyone know what Jahvid Best will do? That head injury was brutal....

descendency
12-22-2009, 02:25 PM
Does anyone know what Jahvid Best will do? That head injury was brutal....

His draft stock, in my opinion, is as high as it is going to go. He should declare. I don't know what NFL teams will think of him though.

Babylon
12-22-2009, 03:01 PM
Does anyone know what Jahvid Best will do? That head injury was brutal....

CJ Spiller is going to be the top speed back and Best would be trying to be second. His 40 time i think in that category would be critical.

phlysac
12-22-2009, 03:06 PM
Yeah, if concussions are an issue in determining his future, he should come out. Plating a full season in college next year isn't going to give him less concussions before he is drafted.

RealityCheck
12-22-2009, 03:09 PM
Ahmad Black, Earl Thomas and Major Wright, Travis Lewis and Cameron Heyward. They should all stay.

jimbo
12-22-2009, 05:15 PM
Behind Okung and..........?

Bruce Campbell... Bryan Bulaga... Davis isn't as good as some of you think.

Babylon
12-22-2009, 05:19 PM
Bruce Campbell... Bryan Bulaga... Davis isn't as good as some of you think.

Too early i think on Campbell also. I've stated before i think this group of OTs has some depth but is not great at the top of the draft. I think some are really going to reach based on team need. From what i've seen i would go with:

Okung
Bulaga
Davis
Fox
Williams

ThePudge
12-22-2009, 05:37 PM
Bruce Campbell... Bryan Bulaga... Davis isn't as good as some of you think.

Campbell's not good at football yet and Bulaga had a down year. Bulaga is seen as a RT prospect somewhat comparable to Gosder Cherilus in his strengths and weaknesses. Davis is pretty good, has an absolutely tremendous frame, and comes with both power and good feet. He needs to tighten up some loose screws in his technique and overall consistency, but will benefit greatly from NFL coaching and a new found pressure to succeed. Davis' combination of size, feet, and success at the college level IMO puts him #2 or #3 behind Russell Okung and possibly Trent Williams who is catching an awful rep on these boards, but still seems to be highly thought of. A top 15 likelihood.

holt_bruce81
12-22-2009, 11:20 PM
Toby Gerhart = college level game speed, potential to come back and be in an elite offense with Andrew Luck. Not an NFL player in my opinion.

Ryan Mallett = He could go top 10 or he could go second round. If he's second round material, he DEFINITELY should return. He'll compete for the first QB taken and 1st overall.

Jevan Snead = See Ryan Mallett (minus the top 10 talk, he's a second to third round pick).

Any Center. Their ceiling is round 1.5 (late round 1). You just don't really lose that much.



There isn't much of a difference going in the 3rd than going undrafted. It's not worth having to work every day when you could live up the frat party life in college because you are a football player. (or whatever academic thing you want to claim)

Yeah but his stock won't get any higher than where it's at right now.

superman8456
12-22-2009, 11:23 PM
ten characters

scottyboy
12-23-2009, 12:00 AM
You think of Anthony Davis a lot higher than I do. He's a late first round pick.

since when did top 10 become late 1st round?

foozball
12-23-2009, 01:51 AM
A chance at the Heisman again would be pretty tempting.

Isn't Gerhart a senior???

descendency
12-23-2009, 02:33 AM
Yeah but his stock won't get any higher than where it's at right now.
I guess. I just don't think he has any hope in the NFL. However, he could stay in college one more year and potentially win something.

He could play baseball too.

Prophet
12-23-2009, 02:46 AM
I understand the decision for Jimmy Clausen to enter the draft, I mean he'll probably be a top 10 pick. But he could use another year in college, he has a lot of maturing to do IMO.

Another year in college won't fix any of his off the field issues.
He gaines nothing from returning. Not only is he the clear cut #1 with Locker out of the picture but he has so much experience at the college level already that another year won't do him any favors. Not to mention he would be forced to learn an entierly new system and get acustomed to a brand new coaching staff. And with Tate leaving as well as much of his o-line, leaving was certainly his best option.

BeerBaron
12-23-2009, 09:07 AM
Another year in college won't fix any of his off the field issues.
He gaines nothing from returning. Not only is he the clear cut #1 with Locker out of the picture but he has so much experience at the college level already that another year won't do him any favors. Not to mention he would be forced to learn an entierly new system and get acustomed to a brand new coaching staff. And with Tate leaving as well as much of his o-line, leaving was certainly his best option.

Agreed. Going back into the mess that ND surely will be at first would be a bad idea for him. He made the right decision in coming out and will likely be the 1st QB selected. Even if he doesn't seem like an elite QB, we've seen other "second tier" type QBs get pushed up draft boards when no clear cut #1, "elite" guy is available (see Ryan, Matt...and he's worked out pretty well.)

I don't blame Clausen for jumping at all.

Iamcanadian
12-23-2009, 10:59 AM
I don't think a lot of you guys get it. If you return to school, you are just as likely to fall in the draft than improve your positioning and you will be another year older and your body will have taken another year of punishment.
If you declare, you get to go to the combine if the pros see talent in you. At the combine juniors and small college players can make the most impact if they have real talent and often shoot up draft boards substantially. A 5th rounder this year is more likely to slip next year not move up. Another year of college ball isn't going to make you more appealing to pro teams, far more likely the opposite is true. And that doesn't include the injury risk you are taking.
When you come out as a junior, the scouts aren't looking at a finished product and will give you points for potential but when you come out as a senior, they are much clearer on where your potential ceiling is and that can spell real doom for a lot of prospects. The scouts spend endless hours scouting seniors but only give casual attention to juniors till they declare, this gives the juniors an edge up on the seniors, on ceiling potential at the combine and often results in juniors moving up while seniors either remain stagnant or move down. The 1st round is a perfect example where seniors often get ignored for promising juniors, and then fall to round 2.
The assumption that you become more appealing to scouts and GM's with another year of college ball under your belt and will move up as a result is a myth, again the opposite is far more likely to occur.

BeerBaron
12-23-2009, 11:28 AM
... A 5th rounder this year is more likely to slip next year not move up. Another year of college ball isn't going to make you more appealing to pro teams, far more likely the opposite is true. And that doesn't include the injury risk you are taking...
...The assumption that you become more appealing to scouts and GM's with another year of college ball under your belt and will move up as a result is a myth, again the opposite is far more likely to occur.

I mostly agree with you, but wanted to comment on some exceptions to these parts.

Let's say you are a junior RB this year who started to get some playing time and made the most of it while sharing the load with another back(s), then you have a chance as a senior to be the primary ball carrier. If you make the most of that opportunity, you will almost certainly look more appealing as you became your team's go-to back. CJ Spiller is a good example of this I think. Last year, he split carries with James Davis and, had he entered the draft, may have been a late first rounder. This year, he was the primary playmaker on offense and really excelled, and now, I see some mocks where he is a Top 10 pick.

Same goes for say, a receiver. As a junior maybe you did pretty well and would be a mid-rounder if you came out, but the senior who started across from you has graduated. Assuming some things happen (like your QB returns and most of the o-line,) you can raise your stock by excelling for a year as your team's #1 receiver. An example of this I think is Jordan Shipley. Had he entered the draft last year, he would have been a mid-late round pick who would have added some depth, maybe be a future slot guy if he was lucky. Now, he wasn't a junior last year, but he did qualify for an extra year of eligibility and made the most of it. Now, I've seen him projected as high as the mid-late 2nd round, and a lot of the time, in the 3rd round. That's a nice improvement for him as well.

So while I agreed with what you said mostly, there are some exceptions that should be considered imo.

I personally believe that if you are going to be a top 3 round pick, you should come out. Obviously, theres no guarantee or anything like that on where you go, but that would be a good guideline I think. If you're projected later than that, and the situation you'd return to at school is one where you can be productive, I'd say go back and fight like hell to improve your stock.

Iamcanadian
12-23-2009, 11:58 AM
I mostly agree with you, but wanted to comment on some exceptions to these parts.

Let's say you are a junior RB this year who started to get some playing time and made the most of it while sharing the load with another back(s), then you have a chance as a senior to be the primary ball carrier. If you make the most of that opportunity, you will almost certainly look more appealing as you became your team's go-to back. CJ Spiller is a good example of this I think. Last year, he split carries with James Davis and, had he entered the draft, may have been a late first rounder. This year, he was the primary playmaker on offense and really excelled, and now, I see some mocks where he is a Top 10 pick.

Same goes for say, a receiver. As a junior maybe you did pretty well and would be a mid-rounder if you came out, but the senior who started across from you has graduated. Assuming some things happen (like your QB returns and most of the o-line,) you can raise your stock by excelling for a year as your team's #1 receiver. An example of this I think is Jordan Shipley. Had he entered the draft last year, he would have been a mid-late round pick who would have added some depth, maybe be a future slot guy if he was lucky. Now, he wasn't a junior last year, but he did qualify for an extra year of eligibility and made the most of it. Now, I've seen him projected as high as the mid-late 2nd round, and a lot of the time, in the 3rd round. That's a nice improvement for him as well.

So while I agreed with what you said mostly, there are some exceptions that should be considered imo.

I personally believe that if you are going to be a top 3 round pick, you should come out. Obviously, theres no guarantee or anything like that on where you go, but that would be a good guideline I think. If you're projected later than that, and the situation you'd return to at school is one where you can be productive, I'd say go back and fight like hell to improve your stock.

I agree in a few cases although Shipley might not go as high as people think as I believe he is pretty old and given that WR's can be slow to develop in the pro game given all the things a WR has to learn at the next level, Shipley might take an unexpected fall on draft day due to his age.
I do agree that if you have some real talent but happen to find yourself in a top program with an All American ahead of you on the depth chart or if you are sharing playing time, returning to school might be the best business decision for you.
As a side point, one factor some people don't realize is than in any draft, there are likely to be no more than a dozen prospects who have the measurables and college production to be considered 1st round talents, the next 20 picks will have to show scouts that they have the talent and mental makeup at the Senior Bowl practice, the combine or on their pro days in ensure that they will be 1st rounders and that is why the Player's Advisory Committee is so conservative in its projections before these events have taken place. The Player's Advisory Committee doesn't know how prospects will perform at these events and are therefore very reluctant to give the last 20 potential 1st rounders a 1st round grade since this group can change dramatically with their performance at these events.

Babylon
12-23-2009, 02:44 PM
Isn't Gerhart a senior???

I guess because of an injury a couple of years ago he has another year of eligibility. He wont be going back to Stanford at least to play football. If he gets to the combine and enough people tell him he isnt an NFL tailback he'll go play baseball, (probably join the Stanford baseball team in the spring).

BeerBaron
12-23-2009, 04:19 PM
I guess because of an injury a couple of years ago he has another year of eligibility. He wont be going back to Stanford at least to play football. If he gets to the combine and enough people tell him he isnt an NFL tailback he'll go play baseball, (probably join the Stanford baseball team in the spring).

Yeah, I believe his year of eligibility only applies to baseball.....at least I'm pretty sure I've heard that said before.

phlysac
12-23-2009, 10:36 PM
I understand the decision for Jimmy Clausen to enter the draft, I mean he'll probably be a top 10 pick. But he could use another year in college, he has a lot of maturing to do IMO.

Interesting thought from another draft stock writer...
Many feel Clausen has maxed out physically as well as on the football field.
I realize it's unsubstantiated with names of who the "many" are but most rumors have to start somewhere.