PDA

View Full Version : My early general draft expectations


Big_Pete
01-13-2010, 12:17 AM
To get an idea on the depth and strengths of the draft, I did up a general positional approximation (by round) of how I expect the draft to unfold at this early stage.

Round 1

QB: Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen
RB: CJ Spiller, Jahvid Best
WR: Dez Bryant, Arrelius Benn, Golden Tate
TE: Anthony Hernandez, Jermaine Gresham
T: Russel Okung, Trent Williams, Anthony Davis, Bruce Campbell, Vladimir Ducasse
G: Mike Iupati

DE: Derrick Morgan, Carlos Dunlap, Jason Pierre-Paul, Everson Griffen
DT: Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Brian Price, Dan Williams
OLB: Serio Kindle, Sean Weatherspoon
ILB: Rolando McClain
CB: Joe Haden, Patrick Robinson, Kareem Jackson
S: Eric Berry, Earl Thomas, Taylor Mays


Round 2

QB: Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy
RB: Jonathan Dwyer, Ryan Matthews
WR: Damian Williams, Brandon LaFell, Mardy Gillard, Jordan Shipley
TE: Ron Gronkowski, Anthony McCoy
T: Bryan Bulaga, Charles Brown
G: Jon Asamoah
C: Maurkice Pouncey, JD Walton

DE: Greg Hardy, Corey Wootton
DT: Jared Odrick, Terrance Cody, Arthur Jones
OLB: Eric Norwood, Novarro Bowman, Jerry Hughes
ILB: Brandon Spikes, Daryl Washington
CB: Donovan Warren, Dominique Franks, Amari Spievey, Perrish Cox
S: Chad Jones, Morgan Burnett, Nate Allen


Round 3

QB: Tony Pike, Jevan Snead
RB: Darius Marshall, Anthony Dixon, Montario Hardesty
FB: Toby Gerhart
WR: Mike Williams, Carlton Williams, Demaryius Thomas, Jeremy Williams
TE: Ed Dickson, Garret Graham
T: Tony Washington, Jason Fox, Kyle Calloway
G: Mike Johnson, Roger Saffold
C: Matt Tennant

DE: Lindsay Witten, Jermaine Cunningham
DT: D'Anthony Smith, Tyson Aluala, Geno Atkins
OLB: Ricky Sapp, Brandon Graham, Thad Gibson, Roddrick Muckelroy
ILB: Sean Lee
CB: Kyle Wilson, Brandon Ghee, Jerome Murphy
S: Reshad Jones, Major Wright, Rennie Curran (SS), Robert Johnson

*Assuming 3 Compensation picks


Round 4

QB: Sean Canfield, Levi Brown
RB: Ben Tate, Charles Scott
FB: Rashawn Jackson
WR: Antonio Brown, Eric Decker, Danario Alexander, Chris Bell
TE: Dennis Pitta, Colin Peek, Jimmy Graham, Michael Hoomanawanui
T: Selvish Capers, Ciron Black
G: Zane Beadles, Sergio Render
C: Ted Larsen

DE: Willie Young, George Selvie, Jason Worilds
DT: Lamarr Houston, Abe Koroma, Al Woods
OLB: Justin Cole, Brandon Lang, Darryl Sharpton
ILB: Pat Angerer, Jamar Chaney
CB: Syd'Quan Thompson, Trevard Lindley, Javier Arenas
S: Darrell Stuckey, Myron Lewis, TJ Ward, Larry Asante, Akwasi Owusu-Ansah

*Assuming 4 Compensation picks


Round 5

QB: Daryll Clark, Tim Hiller
RB: Joe McKnight, Dexter McCluster, Chris Brown
WR: Mico McSwain, Jacoby Ford, Riley Cooper, Andre Roberts
TE: Nate Byham, Jameson Konz
T: Jared Veldheer, Adam Ulatoski, Ed Wang
G: John Jerry, Shawn Lauvao
C: Eric Olsen

DE: Austin Lane, CJ Wilson, Alex Carrington
DT: Jeff Owens, Mike Neal, Boo Robinson
OLB: Kevin Basped, Dekoda Watson, O'Brien Schofield, AJ Edds, Dexter Davis
ILB: Micah Johnson, Mike McLaughlin
CB: Devin Courtney, Alterraun Verner, Walter Thurmond III
S: Kam Chancellor, Harry Coleman, Barry Church

*Assuming 4 Compensation picks


Round 6

QB: John Skelton, Dan LeFevour
RB: James Starks, Stafon Johnson, Andre Anderson
FB: Manas Tonga
WR: Chris McGaha, Taylor Price, Armanti Edwards, Dexter McCluster
TE: Richard Dickson, Andrew Quarless
T: Kevin Haslam, Sam Young, Cole Pemberton
G: Mitch Petrus, Reggie Stephens
C: John Estes

DE: Rahim Alem, Antonio Colemen, Jamie Kirlew
DT: Kade Weston, Vince Oghabaase, Aleric Mullins
OLB: Rico McCoy, Larry Hart, Cameron Sheffield
ILB: Ryan D'Imperio, Joe Pawelek
CB: Brian Jackson, Devin Ross, Sherrick McManus
S: Terrell Skinner, Darian Stewart, Kyle McCarthy, Myron Rolle

*Assuming 4 Compensation picks


Round 7

QB: Mike Kafka, Zac Robinson
RB: Javarris James, LeGarette Blount, Lonyae Miller
FB: Dorin Dickerson, Cody Slade
WR: Namaan Roosevelt, Bryan Anderson, Blair White
TE: Dedrick Epps, Tony Moeaki
T: Chris Scott, Casy Knips, Derek Hardman
G: Cord Howard, Brandon Carter
C: Chris Hall, Kenny Alfred

DE: Jeffrey Fitzgerald, Greg Middleton, Eric Moncur
DT: DeMarcus Granger, Cam Thomas, Corey Peters
OLB: Koa Misi, Dexter Davis, Perry Riley
ILB: Reggie Carter, Reed Williams
CB: Walter McFadden, Chris Cooke, Jamar Wall, Nolan Carroll
S: Justin Woodall, Jonathan Amaya, Russell Anderson, Kurt Coleman

K: Leigh Tiffin, Aaron Pettrey
P: Zoltan Mesko

*Assuming 9 Compensation picks

LickaMahfeetz
01-13-2010, 01:57 AM
You need to get Brandon Graham in there.

Nice list though.

wicket
01-13-2010, 03:45 AM
i dont get navarro bowman over sean weatherspoon

Big_Pete
01-13-2010, 05:09 AM
You need to get Brandon Graham in there.

Nice list though.

Apologies, that has been fixed.

Naturally there will be various different opinions etc

but for me it gives a rough idea of the depth of the various positions and a basis for my estimation of where players will go rather than a straight, this player will go in round x without considering the positional depth or the strengths of other positions.

Big_Pete
01-13-2010, 05:14 AM
i dont get navarro bowman over sean weatherspoon

imho both are roughly in the same late 1st/early-mid 2nd range and could go either way. I can see where you are coming from and am happy to flip them.

Please remember these are my very preliminary guess-timations and it is all very fluid. Obviously we will have a much better idea after the senior bowl, combine and workouts.

hopefully it gives some general idea of the various strengths and weaknesses of the drafts.

This is obviously a work in progress, I am happy to take any feedback or suggestions; constructive criticism is also welcome

DreadedDatSkinsFan
01-13-2010, 09:52 AM
Nice list but I think the some of the tackles u have in the mid rounds will go earlier (Selvish Capers & Ciron Black). Over all the list is pretty good tho..

DiG
01-13-2010, 10:39 AM
a few surprises that im not sure i agree with and some close calls.

To get an idea on the depth and strengths of the draft, I did up a general positional approxiation (by round) of how I expect the draft to unfold at this early stage.

Round 1
RB: Jonathan Dwyer combine will dictate
TE: Anthony Hernandez, Jermaine Gresham unlikely both go in the first imo
OLB: Eric Norwood very surprised that you have Norwood in rd1
CB: Donovan Warren, Patrick Robinson these two are tough. i personally dont think either are first rounders but I think a team will reach on one of them

Round 2

DE: Everson Griffen I am not sure Griff will slip out of rd 1
OLB: Jerry Hughes Another surprise to see in rd2 considering the value of good pass rushers
CB: Dominique Franks, Amari Spievey, Perrish Cox Interesting list. I think Cox is a rd 1 talent above Warren and Robison and I think Franks and Spievey are more rd 3 guys

Round 3

QB: Tony Pike, Jevan Snead
RB: Darius Marshall, Anthony Dixon, Ben Tate Hardesty? With a good combine Hardesty will be valued ahead of all 3 of these guys. Ive got him ahead of them all already
OLB: Thad Gibson, Roddrick Muckelroy, Brandon Graham wow graham rd 3?!

phlysac
01-13-2010, 11:07 AM
I truly don't see Iupati falling out of Rd1. He's one of the most dominant OG prospects ever and he could play OT. Too much value.

But great list. Alot of work.

GoHuskers
01-13-2010, 11:15 AM
I truly don't see Iupati falling out of Rd1. He's one of the most dominant OG prospects ever and he could play OT. Too much value.

But great list. Alot of work.

I agree he should go R1, especially since someone like Williams is in there as a pure RT prospect.

D-Unit
01-13-2010, 12:23 PM
I really like the stuff you post Big Pete.

descendency
01-13-2010, 12:47 PM
I like the sentiment of the list, but I think you have some people a round too high (Dwyer, Tate, etc) and some too low (Tebow, Pike).

I like your assessment of their talents, but I don't like this from a where they will be drafted perspective.

FUNBUNCHER
01-13-2010, 12:53 PM
Awesome thread!!!

Toby Gerhart is gonna MAKE you love him!!!

3rd round FB?? No, no, no.......

prock
01-13-2010, 01:21 PM
this is a good ass list. impressive work.

Babylon
01-13-2010, 02:00 PM
Nice list. As a whole i think the draft is good, deep too. If the criteria for a great draft is super QBs, OT's DEs and cover corners (all vital positions) then i would say it's not outstanding but looks like there are a lot of good football players out there.

ToldLikeItIs
01-13-2010, 02:09 PM
Hawkeye stuff

Bulaga - 1st
Spievey - 2nd
Moeaki, Edds, Calloway - 3rd
Angerer - 4th

Kirk has outright come out and said Moeaki is the best TE he's ever coached. I've been told, on separate occassions, he's also the best athlete on Iowa's team, by a large margin.

Edds has too much size, experience, and will put up decent enough combine numbers to last any further than the 3rd. I could see him being drafted before Spievey actually.

Angerer holds all of the Iowa linebacker speed and vertical records, those, coupled with extensive game film and, again, experience should have him come off the board no later than the 4th.

Calloway played guard in the Orange Bowl. That means he's played LT, RT, and RG as a Hawkeye. NFL teams like versatility. He could go in the 2nd if he tests well, which, he won't, but does have the prototypical RT size.

Bulaga is a physical freak, as a sophomore he put up 35 reps, and ran a 4.8; however, that was pre thyroid condition. I think the whole thing kind of disenfranchised him.

D-Unit
01-13-2010, 03:26 PM
Hawkeye stuff

Bulaga - 1st
Spievey - 2nd
Moeaki, Edds, Calloway - 3rd
Angerer - 4th

Kirk has outright come out and said Moeaki is the best TE he's ever coached. I've been told, on separate occassions, he's also the best athlete on Iowa's team, by a large margin.

Edds has too much size, experience, and will put up decent enough combine numbers to last any further than the 3rd. I could see him being drafted before Spievey actually.

Angerer holds all of the Iowa linebacker speed and vertical records, those, coupled with extensive game film and, again, experience should have him come off the board no later than the 4th.

Calloway played guard in the Orange Bowl. That means he's played LT, RT, and RG as a Hawkeye. NFL teams like versatility. He could go in the 2nd if he tests well, which, he won't, but does have the prototypical RT size.

Bulaga is a physical freak, as a sophomore he put up 35 reps, and ran a 4.8; however, that was pre thyroid condition. I think the whole thing kind of disenfranchised him.
Angerer is the fastest LB ever to play at Iowa?

rockio42
01-13-2010, 03:28 PM
I love he list but I just can't see three RB's going in the first round, right now the NFL is at a premium of RB's and three in the first doesn't seem plausible (at this point) considering certain team needs. But that just my opinion...

ToldLikeItIs
01-13-2010, 03:29 PM
D-Unit, Yep, according to Spring testing.

SenorGato
01-13-2010, 03:33 PM
I think I'd shyte my pants in joy if Oghobaase fell to the 6th (therefore the 5th, where we have 2 picks).

Steal...

Is it just me or has Dan Williams become the most overrated prospect in the nation? Good, solid player but damn...

Big_Pete
01-13-2010, 04:57 PM
I truly don't see Iupati falling out of Rd1. He's one of the most dominant OG prospects ever and he could play OT. Too much value.

But great list. Alot of work.

Talent wise he is probably worth going in the late 1st round. But there will be a few players with 1st round talent in the second round. At this stage I think have him going at the top of the 2nd. But like I said earlier anything can happen, for example I wouldn't be overly surprised if Iupati went in the first and a OT like Bryan Bulaga or Bruce Campbell slipped to the second. A strong case can be made for Iupati in the first round at present, I will flip Bulaga and Iupati, that seems a reasonable consensus so far.

I really want to see the combine, senior bowl and prodays to get a better feel for how everyone shapes up as a draft prospect.

I adjusted Hardesty up slightly, that is a fair point.

It is great to hear the feeback, thanks

Big_Pete
01-13-2010, 05:04 PM
I really like the stuff you post Big Pete.

Thanks, I hope people find this interesting

This is a different way to break down the general depth of the draft.

It looks like there will be some quality UDFAs as well

phlysac
01-13-2010, 05:19 PM
Talent wise he is probably worth going in the late 1st round. But there will be a few players with 1st round talent in the second round. At this stage I think have him going at the top of the 2nd. But like I said earlier anything can happen, for example I wouldn't be overly surprised if Iupati went in the first and a OT like Bryan Bulaga or Bruce Campbell slipped to the second. A strong case can be made for Iupati in the first round at present, I will flip Bulaga and Iupati, that seems a reasonable consensus so far.

I really want to see the combine, senior bowl and prodays to get a better feel for how everyone shapes up as a draft prospect.

I adjusted Hardesty up slightly, that is a fair point.

It is great to hear the feeback, thanks

Your opinion is valid and I'm not arguing it. My perspective is that Iupati is such a RARE OG prospect that he may go top-15, not just "find his way into the 1st"

Big_Pete
01-13-2010, 06:50 PM
I really like the stuff you post Big Pete.

Thanks, I hope people find this interesting

This is a different way to break down the general depth of the draft.

It looks like there will be some quality UDFAs as well

Big_Pete
01-13-2010, 06:57 PM
Your opinion is valid and I'm not arguing it. My perspective is that Iupati is such a RARE OG prospect that he may go top-15, not just "find his way into the 1st"

Interesting, I am keen to see how he goes in workouts etc

top 15 would be really tough for a guard imho, but who knows
anyways Iupati is in the 1st round in my list now

It is good to see different points of view, that is what makes the draft fun.

Hopefully with help I will be able to refine the list a fair bit

LonghornsLegend
01-13-2010, 07:47 PM
Iupati seems like a late 1st, early 2nd guy, but you can't really pinpoint anymore exact then that because what other teams do dictates how the draft will go and there are surprises every year, it's never an exact science.


I think the same for Warren, he seems like an early 2nd prospect but someone picking late 1st could opt to lean towards him, I like Warren and Iupati for the Cowboys and wouldn't mind either since Earl Thomas will probably be gone.

CC.SD
01-13-2010, 08:28 PM
Very good stuff.

LickaMahfeetz
01-13-2010, 08:30 PM
Nice list but I think the some of the tackles u have in the mid rounds will go earlier (Selvish Capers & Ciron Black). Over all the list is pretty good tho..
I could see Ciron going earlier and to me he's a much better OG prospect than he is an OT one.

Capers I can't see though. 4th looks too high even. I question whether the guy can even pass block at the next level. He certainly didn't look capable at times at WVU. He'll be a combine guy, who gets drafted higher than his talent suggests simply because of the measureables.

LickaMahfeetz
01-13-2010, 08:33 PM
I truly don't see Iupati falling out of Rd1. He's one of the most dominant OG prospects ever and he could play OT. Too much value.

But great list. Alot of work.
I've seen you talk about Iupati a lot. You seem like you're probably this guys biggest fan on here. Just curious how much you've seen him play though? The few times I've seen him play he never blew me away as one of the most dominate OG prospects ever, not even close. Seems raw to me actually. Another guy who should test well at the combine, which will improve his stock.

Anyways, I don't think he's a lock anywhere, especially as a 1st rounder. I just don't see it. However it only takes one team to believe it to make it happen.

LickaMahfeetz
01-13-2010, 08:37 PM
Is it just me or has Dan Williams become the most overrated prospect in the nation? Good, solid player but damn...
I was kind of thinking the same thing. Nice prospect. Has a good future I think but damn, some of the negatives just stand out so much (ex: Leverage and base on short yardage plays) that it makes me wonder why he gets rated so highly.

LickaMahfeetz
01-13-2010, 08:39 PM
OLB: Brandon Graham, Thad Gibson, Roddrick Muckelroy
I'd be extremely happy to see Graham drop to the 3rd round but I don't see it happening. I think he could actually push his way into the 1st round if things go well for him between now and April but even if they don't, I don't see him getting out of the 2nd round. Somebody will take him, even as a 43 DE.

phlysac
01-13-2010, 09:13 PM
I've seen you talk about Iupati a lot. You seem like you're probably this guys biggest fan on here. Just curious how much you've seen him play though? The few times I've seen him play he never blew me away as one of the most dominate OG prospects ever, not even close. Seems raw to me actually. Another guy who should test well at the combine, which will improve his stock.

Anyways, I don't think he's a lock anywhere, especially as a 1st rounder. I just don't see it. However it only takes one team to believe it to make it happen.

I will never lie and say I've analyzed tons of film. I have, however seen him play in about a half dozen or so games over over the past few seasons. He is raw as you claim, which is why he's an even bigger prospect. I can't name many OG prospects that move within the run game like he does. His feet can be inconsistent and again, that's why I love him. It's ridiculous how good he is while still having room to improve. Year after year we see OL prospects that have all the athletic tools in the world and may have decent technique but lack the killer and aggressive instinct I like. Iupati is the poster-boy for an aggressive blocker. He looks like he's trying to break his opponent in half when he punches. Yes, he hasn't always played the best opposition but he played well against the likes of Boise State, Washington, USC, to name a few. It is special when a player stands out on an absolutely terrible team. Idaho has been that throughout most of Iupati's time there, and even in the one-sided contests I've witnessed, he always stood out to me as a special talent.

Also, I openly admit to not being a professional evaluator. I regularly tend to watch prospects based on the needs of the 49ers. They need versatile and aggressive players at OG and RT and it is not just possible but likely that my excitement for a player like Iupati is affected by how he fits those missing pieces.

I appreciate your post, though because I long to hear opposing views on players I like too much or hate too much.

I've been crying out for a Trent Williams advocator for weeks now.

JRTPlaya21
01-13-2010, 10:04 PM
This really is a great thread. I wouldn't mind seeing more of these in the future as we approach draft day.

vidae
01-13-2010, 10:10 PM
Good read. Good job. I agree that Iupati is probably a first round lock at this point, but I wouldn't be too upset if he fell to the top of the second. ;)

Big_Pete
01-13-2010, 10:29 PM
This really is a great thread. I wouldn't mind seeing more of these in the future as we approach draft day.

I have enjoyed doing this list. Initially I did it for myself to help with mock drafts etc

But I am glad other people find it useful as well.

At the very least it is a starting point for some interesting discussion

DiG
01-14-2010, 06:57 AM
I have enjoyed doing this list. Initially I did it for myself to help with mock drafts etc

But I am glad other people find it useful as well.

At the very least it is a starting point for some interesting discussion

i personally think its too restrictive and doesnt take into account guys who are in the borderline area. to try and class only 32 guys into the first round, second round, etc at this point is absurd. probably at least 7/8 of each at this point are swing players that could go either way and i feel its more worthwhile to include that in these types or rankings. just some thought for next time.

Big_Pete
01-14-2010, 07:45 AM
i personally think its too restrictive and doesnt take into account guys who are in the borderline area. to try and class only 32 guys into the first round, second round, etc at this point is absurd. probably at least 7/8 of each at this point are swing players that could go either way and i feel its more worthwhile to include that in these types or rankings. just some thought for next time.

fair comment, but that is inevitable, players will fluctuate alot between rounds and alot of guys could be considered borderline (perhaps most)

how would you represent that on a comprehensive list without excessive complexity?

I am very open on ideas or suggestions to improve things for next time around

RealityCheck
01-14-2010, 10:33 AM
To get an idea on the depth and strengths of the draft, I did up a general positional approximation (by round) of how I expect the draft to unfold at this early stage.

Round 1

QB: Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen
RB: CJ Spiller, Jonathan Dwyer, Jahvid Best
WR: Dez Bryant, Arrelius Benn, Golden Tate
TE: Anthony Hernandez, Jermaine Gresham
T: Russel Okung, Trent Williams, Anthony Davis, Bruce Campbell
G: Mike Iupati

DE: Derrick Morgan, Carlos Dunlap, Jason Pierre-Paul
DT: Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Brian Price, Dan Williams
OLB: Serio Kindle, Sean Weatherspoon, Eric Norwood
ILB: Rolando McClain
CB: Joe Haden, Donovan Warren, Patrick Robinson
S: Eric Berry, Earl Thomas, Taylor Mays

Warren, Norwood, Hernandez, Dwyer? No.
Ducasse, Graham, Gilyard, Spikes? Yes.

Big_Pete
01-14-2010, 05:09 PM
I have made some ninor adjustments including adding Ron Gronkowski and Kevin Basped.

Keep the comments coming

Malaka
01-14-2010, 06:20 PM
No Vince Oghobaase? I think he has 2nd round potential.

LickaMahfeetz
01-14-2010, 06:43 PM
No Vince Oghobaase? I think he has 2nd round potential.
He's there. You just didn't look down far enough.

LickaMahfeetz
01-14-2010, 06:44 PM
I will never lie and say I've analyzed tons of film. I have, however seen him play in about a half dozen or so games over over the past few seasons. He is raw as you claim, which is why he's an even bigger prospect. I can't name many OG prospects that move within the run game like he does. His feet can be inconsistent and again, that's why I love him. It's ridiculous how good he is while still having room to improve. Year after year we see OL prospects that have all the athletic tools in the world and may have decent technique but lack the killer and aggressive instinct I like. Iupati is the poster-boy for an aggressive blocker. He looks like he's trying to break his opponent in half when he punches. Yes, he hasn't always played the best opposition but he played well against the likes of Boise State, Washington, USC, to name a few. It is special when a player stands out on an absolutely terrible team. Idaho has been that throughout most of Iupati's time there, and even in the one-sided contests I've witnessed, he always stood out to me as a special talent.

Also, I openly admit to not being a professional evaluator. I regularly tend to watch prospects based on the needs of the 49ers. They need versatile and aggressive players at OG and RT and it is not just possible but likely that my excitement for a player like Iupati is affected by how he fits those missing pieces.

I appreciate your post, though because I long to hear opposing views on players I like too much or hate too much.

I've been crying out for a Trent Williams advocator for weeks now.
Well, it seems as if you have a pretty good read on him. I can respect that. It's easy to see some of the reactions/projections people have but even better when you know where they are coming from. Perspective is everything.

FUNBUNCHER
01-14-2010, 10:45 PM
If Kentucky ILB Micah Johnson can run a sub 4.75, I think he sneaks into the 2nd round.

Such a hot prospect at the beginning of the college football season, 6'2, 258#, with little buzz surrounding him after the bowl games.

phlysac
01-14-2010, 11:24 PM
If Kentucky ILB Micah can run a sub 4.75, I think he sneaks into the 2nd round.

Such a hot prospect at the beginning of the college football season, 6'2, 258#, with little buzz surrounding him after the bowl games.

One of few legitimate 3-4 TED prospects in the top part of the draft. He and Spikes, not much else.

Big_Pete
01-15-2010, 05:04 PM
I have updated the lists to include the latest juniours, any thoughts?

DaBrowns41
01-15-2010, 05:12 PM
I could see Ciron going earlier and to me he's a much better OG prospect than he is an OT one.

Capers I can't see though. 4th looks too high even. I question whether the guy can even pass block at the next level. He certainly didn't look capable at times at WVU. He'll be a combine guy, who gets drafted higher than his talent suggests simply because of the measureables.

I think Black is a better RT prospect then a guard. He's a good run blocker. His problem is in pass protection.