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V.I.P
03-10-2010, 10:57 PM
Okay, so you've got a back. He's built exactly the same as guys like LT and Shaun Alexander (5'11 220). He was one of the most productive backs in California prep history. Last year, he turned in one of the best seasons ever as an NCAA runner. He ran a 4.45 at the combine. He can catch. His running style - fluid, compact, no wasted motion, no dancing - is perfect for the NFL. To my knowledge, there aren't any character concerns or major injury flags, either.

So, why isn't Ryan Mathews a top ten prospect?

FUNBUNCHER
03-10-2010, 11:03 PM
Because since 2000 RB has been one of the deepest positions annually in the draft.

There will be undrafted guys who make practice squads who are capable of running for 1100 yards.
The value just isn't there, unless the prospect has Bo Jackson athletic ability, and even then some teams wouldn't take him.

RedVision
03-10-2010, 11:03 PM
WAC runners don't get any respect. That's about it.

RedVision
03-10-2010, 11:04 PM
^^

plus what FunBuncher said.

YotoJets007
03-10-2010, 11:07 PM
RB value goes down lately, I guess.

niel89
03-10-2010, 11:13 PM
The only guys that are really ranked ahead of him are 2 players that are seen a gamebreakers (Spiller, Best). The guy still is going to be a 1st rounder.

TACKLE
03-10-2010, 11:30 PM
1. This draft is very strong so very good players are getting pushed back.

2. RB's don't carry the same value as they used to. Very few teams rely on one guy to carry the load. Also its a very deep RB class and the feeling is teams can get a high quality back later.

3. One Year Wonder.


But don't worry. Mathews is the second best back in the draft and will be the second RB off the board. His stock is continuing to rise and I think we could see him go anywhere from New England at #22 to Detroit at #34. In a weaker draft he probably could have been a top 15-20 prospect and probably would have been one this year if he had more consistent production over his career.

wogitalia
03-11-2010, 12:36 AM
The NFL has changed is the main reason.

It is a passing league so the ability to catch out of the backfield has fallen secondary to the ability to line up out of the backfield. It is all about matchups and a RB who can play WR is more dangerous.

Check the top RB prospects for the last few years. McFadden, Bush, Johnson and Felix Jones are all that type of back. Guys like Wells fall to the end of the 1st and that is the type you describe from a big program. This year the top 2 are both as much WR as they are running back in how they are built and athletically.

Game has changed away from the power back to the speed back also. Top rushers last year weren't the run you over type. Even the guys like Peterson, Jones-Drew and Rice are speed backs to a degree.

There is another major reason. RB depth the last few drafts. There are so few teams with a need at RB right now which helps to drive up the value of RBs and guys like Benson, Williams, Jones and Grant last year are just showing you can pick up backs for very little and have success, the value is going on the OL players instead.

I don't expect this to change until defenses start to shut down the spread and it's workings. The league is getting closer and closer to a team that runs it full time as their offense and you already have many teams that are implementing it and when you go with a matchup based offense, you place higher value on RBs who can create matchups that are favourable. So the ability to completely change position like Bush, Spiller and co create. The guy who can run, block or catch in the backfield just isn't as valuable now.

Thumper
03-11-2010, 12:45 AM
I know what you're missing, you're missing the major injury flags. If he wasn't so injury prone, he would be a top 20 pick. MAJOR durability concerns.

And he isn't a one year wonder btw Tackle, had he been healthy all 3 years in college, he would've ran for 1000 yards all 3 years.

Bosanac01
03-11-2010, 01:02 AM
C.J Spiller and Jahvid Best both have MAJOR durability concerns.

YAYareaRB
03-11-2010, 01:16 AM
I don't know if it's me but I think the main reason that RB's value is going down is that with the introduction of this 2 back system idea, the durability of each RB goes up. Everyone I can think of is pretty set at the RB position, from the worst team to best team. When it comes to drafting RBs now days its a "rich get richer situation"

Don Vito
03-11-2010, 01:19 AM
It takes a lot to be a top 10 overall prospect if you are a back these days, the league isn't what it used to be even a few years ago. Backs taken in the top 10 in the last 4 years are D-Mac, AD, and Bush. The year before that (2005) saw Ronnie Brown, Benson, and Caddy all go top 5. Prior to that you need to go back to LT in 2001 and Jamal Lewis/Thomas Jones in 2000 to find backs that were top 10 picks.

Matthews is a good looking prospect, but the fact of the matter is that the running back position is not quite what it used to be as far as draft value is concerned. Also I think most would agree that Matthews simply is not the prospect that those guys were when you look at physical talent, production, level of competition, consistency, skill set, and durablility.

Also, LT was the only back from a non BCS conference taken in the top 10 the past decade. Marshall Faulk was the last before him. He finished his TCU career with 5,263 yards and capped it off with 2,158 yards and 22 TD's as a senior. He won all sorts of awards in college, etched his name in the record books, and proved he could play against the best when he won senior bowl MVP.

Matthews is no slouch when it comes to production and put up great numbers in Indy, but I don't know if he is a top 15 prospect when you look at the talent in this draft that can be found at positions that tend to carry more draft value.

SKim172
03-11-2010, 08:52 AM
Because he spells "Mathews" with only one T. If he had that double T, he'd be top ten for sure.

bitonti
03-11-2010, 09:13 AM
you said it yourself he ran a 4.45 at the combine

that's not good enough for top 10. Adrian Peterson ran in the 4.3's

bigfreak314
03-11-2010, 09:16 AM
Does anybody think San Diego drafts this guy if Spiller is off the board?

SeanTaylorRIP
03-11-2010, 09:22 AM
C.J Spiller and Jahvid Best both have MAJOR durability concerns.

But they also have that playmaking ability which every team in the NFL is trying to find nowadays with the multiple spread out wide receiver sets teams are running. Teams no longer are looking solely for a workhorse back. They value much higher a game breaker who gets 15-20 touches a game both rushing and receiving. It's easier to find a power back to pair with one of these playmakers than to rely on a workhorse back for an extended period of time.

Brothgar
03-11-2010, 09:24 AM
My take is that Mathews is the best pure runner in this draft and best rb overall.

TheMorningZoo
03-11-2010, 09:27 AM
I agree with what a lot of people have said already, but it is true the value of the RB position has gone down. A few years ago (05) it was funny because we had three rb's in the top 5 (Ronnie Brown, Benson, Cadillac Williams), but it seemed to drop off after that. Hell, even prospects like Beanie Wells were at once mentioned in the top 10 (to the Browns if I recall), but he dropped to the end of Round 1 (wish Chargers could of had him this year >_<). I also think the fact you can find quality runners in the later rounds, it really takes the emphasis off trying to find an "all-world" back.

SeanTaylorRIP
03-11-2010, 09:29 AM
My take is that Mathews is the best pure runner in this draft and best rb overall.

As do I but to be a top 15 RB selection you need to have special speed or power. I think Matthews and Hardesty could very well end up being consistent 1000 yard backs, but in today's NFL game first round RB's will be reserved for backs with rare speed and change of pace ability, i.e. Spiller, Best, McFadden, AD, etc.

yourfavestoner
03-11-2010, 10:45 AM
I didn't get to watch a whole lot of him, but how does he compare to Rashard Mendenhall? Measurables seem similar, and they were both one year wonders in college.

Supporting Caste
03-11-2010, 10:55 AM
No, Mathews was not a one year wonder. He played in an extremely crowded backfield but he always was a big producer.

Mathews is a beast. I think he'll be a lot like Corey Dillon in the NFL.

Something about the Mendenhall comparison doesn't work for me...not sure what. I think Mathews is much more polished as an inside-the-tackles runner and makes more cuts in general.

Babylon
03-11-2010, 11:00 AM
Okay, so you've got a back. He's built exactly the same as guys like LT and Shaun Alexander (5'11 220). He was one of the most productive backs in California prep history. Last year, he turned in one of the best seasons ever as an NCAA runner. He ran a 4.45 at the combine. He can catch. His running style - fluid, compact, no wasted motion, no dancing - is perfect for the NFL. To my knowledge, there aren't any character concerns or major injury flags, either.

So, why isn't Ryan Mathews a top ten prospect?

I guess that would imply that Alexander was a top ten pick which he wasnt, i think high teens to the end of round 1 is realistic for Mathews.

reading the first paragraph there i thought this was another Toby Gerhart thread.

SenorGato
03-11-2010, 11:04 AM
I have him as a sleeper for our first round pick at 29...at the end of the first with no one to trade down with a talented RB can never hurt unless he gets hurt.

I think SD would also be interested in him if they can't get a DL or whatever they're looking for...

There's a legit chance he goes in the first IMO...he profiles as a feature type back and that's going to be a plus for teams, even in the 2 back era.

Defsoul
03-11-2010, 11:35 AM
I would be really pissed if New England took him in the first round. He can't pass block, he is not a good receiver and his o-line created hugh runing lanes for him. Basically, he is Laurence Maroney 2.0...

superfly69
03-11-2010, 01:21 PM
He's coming out of Fresno State and he is a Junior. Underclassmen from non BCS schools don't get the love.

Addict
03-11-2010, 01:23 PM
solid running backs are dime a dozen in the NFL.

K Train
03-11-2010, 01:34 PM
i havent seen much of matthews, except when he and he alone allowed fresno to hang with boise...he looked good in that game lol

the_dark_knight
03-11-2010, 01:57 PM
C.J Spiller and Jahvid Best both have MAJOR durability concerns.

I have to disagree with Spiller having injury concerns especially major ones. Best has the concussion of coursebut nothing outside of that and literally every player has the same risk Best does

RealityCheck
03-11-2010, 05:40 PM
Because the talent at RB in the NFL is so deep right now nobody needs one.

HotRod35
03-13-2010, 03:38 PM
I think he is an excellent prospect, and one of the two most consistently productive backs in 2009. He certainly is not over-looked as a running back as everyone I have seen have him in the top 5 with most in the top 3, and some in the top 3.

As far as being in the top 10 I think it has to do mostly with what others are saying regarding the perceived value of drafting any running back.

As far as him being in the WAC, it is true he did not face major competition most weeks, but the Bulldogs face more than most from the lower level conferences. Most importantly, there is a track record there against BCS level teams and he did quite well.