Betting on the Draft

[jumbo]

On one of the sites I use they have some early prop bets for the draft. I didnt want to list the site because i dont want to break any rules of this site. Trying to get some of DCs opinions on the bets i made or anything i missed.

QBs drafted in round 1 over 2 -600 under 2 + 400
RBs drafted in round 1 over 1 1/2 -340 Under + 260
WR/TEs drafted in 1 over 2 1/2 +130 Under -160
# Offensive Linemen over 6 1/2 -180 Under +150
# DTs taken Rd 1 Over 4 1/2 +220 Under -300
# DEs taken RND 1 Over 3 1/2 Under +120

Who will be drafted first
Suh -400 McCoy +300
Joe Haden -215 Earl Thomas +165
Demaryius Thomas -280 Golden Tate +210
Russel Okung -500 Brian Bulaga + 350


My thoughts. Bet max Okung vs Buluga at 5-1. I just dont see anyway that Okung is not the first OT off the board and expect Williams to go before Buluga.

The over on QBs is basically a freeroll. Regardless of what mcshay says Clausen is going in the first round. Most likely this ends up being a push with the hopes tebow gets taken in the first. Or pray some team moves up into the first for McCoy.

Over on the number of Offensive Linemen taken in the first. Okung, Williams, Buluga, Davis are for sure first rounders. Campbell, Pouncey, Illuiti, Brown and even Vlad are possible first rounders. Out of that list I see 7 or 8 being selected in the first.

I kinda like the under of RBs drafted in 1. Spiller is a first rounder. That leaves the possibility that SD Takes matthews with their pick. alot of mocks have matthews falling to 40 for SD and taking a DT here. I cant see any team taking a RB in the 1.

I like the under on DTs taken in RD 1. I can think of only 4 that should be 1st rounders. Suh Mccoy Williams Otrick. Your basically betting against either price and Cody getting selected RD1

What do you all think. I already bet over on QBs, Okung vs Buluga, and over on OLine. Looking to see anything else im missing. Kinda like haden against thomas but that is alot of juice to lay with hadens falling as of late.

[Shane P. Hallam]

DT isn't a bad bet. I like the DE bet DEPENDING on where they list players. Kindle, Graham, etc, DE or LB?

[jumbo]

I skipped over the DE bet for that reason. It does not say who is listed at OLB or DE, so my guess is they would score the bet on what it has on NFL.com on draft day. So Kindle would be a OLB, Graham is a DE. Still it should only be morgan, JPP, and graham drafted RD 1 as DEs. With an outside chance everson griffin goes in the first.

I also hate to admit it, but I want to bet McCoy vs Suh at +300. If they are really 1 and 1a, Det has interest in McCoy, this is a good bet. I think its worth taking a flier getting 3-1. The problem is the only team to take McCoy over Suh is Det and they should take Okung. TB will take Suh if given the chance.

[umphrey]

Was going to say the same thing about DE.

I like
Suh over McCoy
QBs in R1
Haden over Thomas

Okung over Bulaga isn't bad but it's riskier than you think. Players fitting Okung's profile tend to free fall occasionally while Bulaga won't.

RBs in R1 wouldn't be bad because they are a favorite of the teams picking late in the first trying to add that last piece to push them into the superbowl. Especially with Best and Matthews, those guys could easily go in the first.

[DJC]

I'd take the over on DT's

Suh, McCoy, and Dan Williams are sure fire 1st rounders. I'd put Odrick's probablity of going in the 1st in the 90%s. So you're basically betting that atleast one of Cody or Price will be a 1st rounder. I like those odds.

[gpngc]

I think the OL over is the best bet.

The odds on D. Thomas vs. Tate make me think NFL people are really higher on Thomas than we realize. I would think Tate but those are weird odds.

I would never touch the DT one. There's a great chance Cody and Price aren't drafted in the first.

I too might take a stab at the RB under. RBs fall usually and if Matthews falls past Houston and SD, I definitely see only Spiller going in first.

[jumbo]

Okung is now -700 vs buluga. For some reason I never think of Houston taking a RB in the first. I know that is a major need with Slaton's play last year, but they need a DE, CB and saftey more. I think RB is more of a 2/3 round need for them.

[ChiFan24]

Redskins - Trent Williams
Chiefs - Brian Bulaga
Seahawks - Russell Okung

Not out of the question, I'd stay away from that Okung bet. The over/unders on OL and RB both seem like pretty solid bets.

[Mr.Regular]

Over on OLinemen for sure. Thats the best bet there I think.

Okung, Bulaga, Williams, Davis, Pouncey, Iupati are absolute locks.
Campbell is a vitual certainty.
Brown is very likely.
And there are guys like Saffold who could also sneak in.

[akvikefan89]

That QB +2 in round 1 is interesting. You'd have to think some team will trade up in the first and take Tebow (possibly even McCoy).

RB +1.5 I would think was a lock. CJ Spiller and Ryan Matthews is all you need.

[umphrey]

Been thinking about the RBs in round 1 and I realized it actually puts a lot of pressure on the Chargers or Jets to take a RB. Most teams picking in the 20s won't even look at running backs.

Houston: Probably not, they've had success with middle round running backs and passed on Reggie Bush
Cincinatti: Probably not with Benson's resurgence
New England: Probably not with other needs and after they drafted Maroney just to see the same or more success out of little known guys
Green Bay: Possibly, but Ted Thompson seems to hate RBs in the first
Philadelphia: Little to no chance, they'll ride McCoy
Baltimore: No chance, they love Ray Rice
Arizona: No chance, took Beanie last year
Dallas: No chance, they have 2 starters competing for carries already
San Diego: Here, there is a chance
New York Jets: Maybe, might want to complement a stellar OL or might be content with Greene from last year
Minnesota: No chance, Peterson
Indianapolis: No chance, already paying 2 first round RBs
New Orleans: No chance, won't pay for Reggie Bush's backup

[DiG]

ill be in Vegas throughout the entire draft! Probably hit up the Venetian sports book and lay down a few bets Thursday afternoon.

[gpngc]

Where Are They This Year!?!?!

[DiG]

i know over/under on qbs is 3.5 and over/under on rbs is .5

ill get more

[DiG]

Number of Quarter Backs taken in Round One (Position Per NFL.com) - O/U 3.5

Number of Running Backs taken in Round One (Position Per NFL.com) - O/U 0.5

Number of Wide Receivers+Tight Ends taken in Round One (Position Per NFL.com) - O/U 2.5

Number of Offensive Linemen taken in Round One (Position Per NFL.com) - O/U 6.5

Number of Defensive Tackles taken in Round One (Position Per NFL.com) - O/U 4.5

Number of Defensive Ends taken in Round One (Position Per NFL.com) - O/U 7.5

Cam Newton - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be - O/U 1.5

Blaine Gabbert - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be - O/U 4/5

AJ Green - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be - O/U 4/5

Total SEC Players Drafted in the 1st Round - O/U 8

[descendency]

Gabbert - the number will be greater than >5