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View Full Version : Top 10 teams to make the jump to a BCS conference.


bearsfan_51
05-28-2010, 07:58 PM
First of all, I recognize that technically non- automatic qualifying schools are also in BCS conferences, but you know what I mean.

This is not just based on my own feelings, but rather a quantitative analysis involving four separate factors.

1) Athletic performance This is NOT just for football
2) Academic/Research reputation
3) Athletic department budget/revenue (not always available for private schools, but there are educated guesses)
4) Room for growth/size of market

With that being said, here's what I came up with. I was surprised at some of the stuff I came up with, particularly in terms of the large debt that some teams have.

1) Texas Christian University
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/9a/TCUHornedFrogs.png

2) University of Utah
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/6c/Utah_Utes_logo.png

3) University of New Mexico
http://alumnifashions.com/images/University-of-New-Mexico-Lobos-logo.gif

4) Brigham Young University
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fc/BYUlogo.png

5) University of Hawaii
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/e6/HawaiiWarriors.png

6) University of Central Florida
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/93/CentralFloridaLogo.png

7) University of Houston
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_JKD5BZC4VY8/THfYjI1t15I/AAAAAAAAI6Q/8WPZhsh-Kfg/s320/blog+47.gif

8) San Diego State University
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/8/8f/SDSU_athletics_logo_larger.png

9) Boise State University
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/2/2c/Boisestatelogo.png

10) Villanova University
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/47/VillanovaWildcats.png

wonderbredd24
05-28-2010, 08:23 PM
The population of Idaho is 1.5 million people... as good as their program might be, that's a huge problem. Hawaii is not even as big as Idaho and the time zone doesn't help their cause either. To compare, San Diego has about 3 million and Houston has 2.2

And has there been any inclination that Villanova would even want to be in the FBS? They are a championship program in FCS and probably nothing more than mediocre in the FBS.

I'd also have BYU and Utah ahead of New Mexico

OSUGiants17
05-28-2010, 08:27 PM
Boise State NEEDS to be in a BCS conference, stat

bearsfan_51
05-28-2010, 08:27 PM
The population of Idaho is 1.5 million people... as good as their program might be, that's a huge problem. Hawaii is not even as big as Idaho and the time zone doesn't help their cause either. To compare, San Diego has about 3 million and Houston has 2.2
True, and population figures help San Diego and Houston. But those are pro-cities, and most people that live in those respective cities could care less about both programs. It's hard to say if that would change.

And has there been any inclination that Villanova would even want to be in the FBS? They are a championship program in FCS and probably nothing more than mediocre in the FBS.
None that I'm aware. They would need to build a new stadium if they were to do so. This isn't who I think will get picked, however, but the best options currently. Villanova is already in the Big East in everything else, just the football program would need work.

I'd also have BYU and Utah ahead of New Mexico
I do have Utah ahead of New Mexico. BYU is hurt by the religion issue, fair or not.

wonderbredd24
05-28-2010, 08:30 PM
eh... personally, I think the Mormon thing helps BYU's case, because it's a fan base that stretches to various parts of the country, so from the perspective of a Big Ten type network, those are potential customers, which would be good for the PAC-10 for example.

Shane P. Hallam
05-28-2010, 08:39 PM
eh... personally, I think the Mormon thing helps BYU's case, because it's a fan base that stretches to various parts of the country, so from the perspective of a Big Ten type network, those are potential customers, which would be good for the PAC-10 for example.

They don't play games on Sundays, which is killer for basketball in a major conference.

wonderbredd24
05-28-2010, 08:40 PM
They don't play games on Sundays, which is killer for basketball in a major conference.

If I'm not mistaken, isn't Utah in the same boat?

bearsfan_51
05-28-2010, 08:46 PM
Utah is a public university.

wonderbredd24
05-28-2010, 08:49 PM
Utah is a public university.

I thought it was Utah that forfeited a championship that was gonna be played on a Sunday this past year; a decision made by the student athletes on the team

YAYareaRB
05-28-2010, 10:37 PM
What are the rules of mid major conferences becoming BCS?

I wish Boise was in the Mountain West.

RealityCheck
05-30-2010, 10:40 AM
Boise State has to be on the top of the list.
They do have a serious shot at the NC this year, and if they actually win it, the NCAA will be rushing their asses to make them jump to the Big Ten or other BCS conference.

Better, make the WAC a BCS conference already.

Much better, make the WAC and the MWC a single conference.

Way better, end this stupid BCS system.

P-L
05-30-2010, 10:54 AM
Boise State has to be on the top of the list.
They do have a serious shot at the NC this year, and if they actually win it, the NCAA will be rushing their asses to make them jump to the Big Ten or other BCS conference.

Better, make the WAC a BCS conference already.

Much better, make the WAC and the MWC a single conference.

Way better, end this stupid BCS system.
BF51 said he was taking all sports into consideration, and Boise State is terrible at everything besides football.

bearsfan_51
05-30-2010, 11:08 AM
Boise State has to be on the top of the list.
They do have a serious shot at the NC this year, and if they actually win it, the NCAA will be rushing their asses to make them jump to the Big Ten or other BCS conference.

Better, make the WAC a BCS conference already.

Much better, make the WAC and the MWC a single conference.

Way better, end this stupid BCS system.
You obviously have no idea how college athletics works.

neko4
05-30-2010, 12:37 PM
Hey BF51, what are the prospects of James Madison making the jump? I remember there were some small rumors going around my area when the new stadium was being built. JMU appears to only be good in football and for the most part its a party school so academic reputation isnt too high, but there are only two teams in VA that are FBS and ODU just joined FCS. I was just curious if you had any thoughts on the subject.

bearsfan_51
05-30-2010, 01:21 PM
Making the jump to FBS or to a BCS conference? There are a few schools in the CAA that I could see making the jump, but I doubt as high as to the Big East or the ACC.

YAYareaRB
05-30-2010, 01:54 PM
Yeah Boise State doesn't even have a baseball team. That really hurts their move to the MWC.

RealityCheck
05-30-2010, 02:08 PM
Yeah Boise State doesn't even have a baseball team. That really hurts their move to the MWC.
True, true, true.

But seeing the best team in the country being unable to be in the national title game hurts.

Brent
05-30-2010, 02:40 PM
I have to say this is a pretty fantastic list. FIU isnt a bad school but they're not up to par with some of those listed.

Isn't UMass supposed to be a pretty good research institute?

neko4
05-30-2010, 07:51 PM
Making the jump to FBS or to a BCS conference? There are a few schools in the CAA that I could see making the jump, but I doubt as high as to the Big East or the ACC.

I suppose FBS in general, though that is kinda off-topic.

gstock05
05-31-2010, 02:09 AM
I've always been surprised TCU isn't in the Big 12. By their reputation, history (yes, they actually have a history beyond the 1990's) and academics, they would fit the bill as a mid-tier Big 12 school at the very least. They would certainly be better than Baylor.

YAYareaRB
05-31-2010, 01:35 PM
I've always been surprised TCU isn't in the Big 12. By their reputation, history (yes, they actually have a history beyond the 1990's) and academics, they would fit the bill as a mid-tier Big 12 school at the very least. They would certainly be better than Baylor.

I don't think the rest of their sports would match up with the Big 12 tho. Baylor is always good at basketball.

wonderbredd24
05-31-2010, 02:09 PM
I don't think the rest of their sports would match up with the Big 12 tho. Baylor is always good at basketball.

I'm always of the opinion that football rules the world, especially when it comes to college athletics and money. I think the thing that hurts TCU the most is it's another Texas school. If it was in ANY other state, it would be a slam dunk. I still think it's destined for the Big XII, but they'd like to expand their reach a little farther than Fort Worth

YAYareaRB
05-31-2010, 02:22 PM
I dunno. I think Texas teams playing Texas teams in conference would maximize ticket sales.

bearsfan_51
05-31-2010, 02:49 PM
TCU is hurt by the fact that it's a private, Christian, school (ditto Baylor).Texas is certainly large enough (and growing) to support 5 BCS schools.

Let's stretch that argument out a bit more. Add up the populations of Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, South Carolina, and Kentucky. That's still less than the amount of people who live in Texas. So we're looking at 10 BCS schools in those 6 states, versus 4 in Texas. Still think they can't add one or two more?

Generally, if a conference is going to want a smaller private school, it's going to be because it excels at academics (Vanderbilt, Northwestern, Stanford) because the alumni presence is never going to be there to sell tickets.

wonderbredd24
05-31-2010, 03:21 PM
I dunno. I think Texas teams playing Texas teams in conference would maximize ticket sales.

Consider the reach of any other BCS Conference. The PAC 10 has the entire Pacific Coast line and is looking to move east. The Big Ten currently stretches from Iowa to Pennsylvania and will be likely be moving west into Nebraska and east into New Jersey. The ACC stretches from Massachussetts to Florida. The Big East has Ohio, Florida, and at least for the moment, New Jersey. The SEC goes from Kentucky to Arkansas to Florida.

The Big XII has Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Iowa... other than the fact that Texas is an enormous state, the Big XII's reach is relatively small and while adding another power within Texas wouldn't be a bad thing, they'd certainly like to stretch their aura of influence, which is why Arkansas has come up in conversations. I don't disagree at all that the Big XII can support another BCS school within the state, but how much does it do for TV audiences, recruiting, or recognition? Not much. And generally, Texas can support 2 good football programs at a time. Right now, it's Texas and TCU.

YAYareaRB
05-31-2010, 03:22 PM
Stanford has never been in a slouch in basketball either though.

bearsfan_51
05-31-2010, 03:25 PM
The PAC 10 has the entire Pacific Coast line and is looking to move east.
The Pac 10 covers four states, the Big 12 covers seven.

YAYareaRB
05-31-2010, 03:26 PM
I just don't know. If California can support 3 BCS schools in one conference, then I'm sure Texas can support 4.

bearsfan_51
05-31-2010, 03:31 PM
California already has 4, so does Texas.

wonderbredd24
05-31-2010, 07:06 PM
The Pac 10 covers four states, the Big 12 covers seven.
Population and having an entire coast line is a little more important

wonderbredd24
05-31-2010, 07:07 PM
I just don't know. If California can support 3 BCS schools in one conference, then I'm sure Texas can support 4.

They can support 20 BCS schools if they want to, but only a couple will be good at any given time.

Texas can support 2 very good football programs at one time. California appears able to match that.

bearsfan_51
05-31-2010, 07:36 PM
Population and having an entire coast line is a little more important
Coast line is important because? Are they going fishing?

And NOW population matters? Honestly, I'm having a hard time understanding what you're talking about.

wonderbredd24
05-31-2010, 07:40 PM
Coast line is important because? Are they going fishing?

And NOW population matters? Honestly, I'm having a hard time understanding what you're talking about.
When did population not matter? I mentioned both the populations of Idaho and Hawaii as disastrous to their case. Dallas/Fort Worth has the population, but adding ANOTHER Texas team to a conference that already includes Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Baylor doesn't do much in terms of TV or recruiting. I'm sure TCU has a pretty loyal fanbase, but are they going to take any fans away from those other teams? Seems unlikely.

As for the coastline, it only matters from the standpoint that no one can go west of them... or north or south for that matter. It's a built in advantage for the PAC 10 to only have to worry about moving East.

Outside of the south, the Big XII is competing on all fronts, but that also provides them an opportunity to spread out in any of the other three directions.

YAYareaRB
06-01-2010, 02:09 AM
I think Texas vs Texas match ups will always sell.. seats and on TV.

bearsfan_51
11-30-2010, 07:08 AM
Check and Check on 1 and 2. New Mexico's plummet in football takes them down the list. Is Central Florida next to go up?

wicket
11-30-2010, 07:11 AM
Check and Check on 1 and 2. New Mexico's plummet in football takes them down the list. Is Central Florida next to go up?

Nova would be a solid guess iyam, good in football, plays in big east in each other sport anyway

bearsfan_51
11-30-2010, 07:14 AM
Well Nova already got the invite, so it's there if they want it. I remember thinking originally that they either had no business being on the list, or should have been much higher. Obviously the latter.

They are also really helped by the fact that the Big East doesn't want to add any more teams in the non-football sports.

Brent
11-30-2010, 07:34 AM
SD State is in a rather unfortunate location. They'll probably never get to join a major conference. Also, Houston to the Big 12 will probably be a likely landing spot in the future. If SMU can dig itself out of a hole, they'd be a decent choice, too.

bearsfan_51
11-30-2010, 07:37 AM
SMU has some SERIOUS debt issues. Not sure if that's what you meant by hole, but yeah. I remember that's why they weren't on the list in the first place.

Brent
11-30-2010, 07:40 AM
SMU has some SERIOUS debt issues. Not sure if that's what you meant by hole, but yeah. I remember that's why they weren't on the list in the first place.
Oh I know about the debt, but what do you expect when you charge 45k in-state tuition and a large chunk of your students are on scholarship because so few people could even afford to attend that school? Not to mention, the Park cities do EVERYTHING they can to make sure that it's nearly impossible for students to live off campus unless they commute.

MassNole
11-30-2010, 08:49 AM
eh... personally, I think the Mormon thing helps BYU's case, because it's a fan base that stretches to various parts of the country, so from the perspective of a Big Ten type network, those are potential customers, which would be good for the PAC-10 for example.
BYU already has it's own network on DirecTV and Dish.