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hockey619
07-07-2010, 01:28 PM
What do you think is a large contributer to victories in the NFL?

Let me explain the situation. Im running a regression for my class. For those that havent taken any statistics or econometrics courses the regression ill explain more below, but it will be set equal to the number of wins a team gets. On the other side I will have their statistical rank of their offense and defense based on points allowed/for as well as turnover ratings. The program will run it and tell me what things most closely correlate with wins (i.e. itll show how much each statistic is responsible for an increase in wins).


Im kinda cruising through this stuff now and its a bit of a pain and tedious but I plan on posting my results here when Im completely done in a couple of days. As of now im putting in D and O ranks according to points scored against and points for. Im also going to put in turnovers forced and turnovers if I can find the numbers, pretty sure I can.


Now my question for all of you:

What things do you think are important to winning games?

Id like to know so I can put it into my regression and test your theories as well. What else should I add in your opinion? Almost anything can be quantified (seriously, youd be amazed) but it has to be in order for this to work.

Hawk
07-07-2010, 01:30 PM
http://media.sacbee.com/static/weblogs/raiders/vince-young-shirtless.jpg

He just wins games

tjsunstein
07-07-2010, 01:36 PM
Too broad of a question.

Joecool
07-07-2010, 01:37 PM
Scoring more points then the other team.

prock
07-07-2010, 01:38 PM
^^^ What this guy said.

Narrow down your question.

hockey619
07-07-2010, 01:47 PM
Too broad of a question.



How so?

Do you think offense or defense is more important to winning? Do you think winning the turnover battle is most important? Special teams? Sacks? Do you think there is a magical yard number (100 rushing yards) that is often there when a team wins? This isnt to broad at all, you just have to think a little bit.

tjsunstein
07-07-2010, 01:57 PM
Exactly my point. There are hundreds of sub questions.

There are millions of answers to 'What wins games..' varying from gameplanning to personnel to in game coaching to execution.

Offense and defense play a complimentary role. One isn't as effective without the right partner.

Winning the turnover battle helps, yes.

Special teams can make or break games but it isn't necessary to have an elite unit, see Packers 2009. Some could argue field position wins games but that's contingent on your other units and how effective they are.

Typically anytime you rush for over 150 yards, I'd say you have a 75% chance of winning. Just a raw guess. But there are too many variables!

CJSchneider
07-07-2010, 01:59 PM
What do you think is a large contributer to victories in the NFL?


Now my question for all of you:

What things do you think are important to winning games?


Touchdowns

tjsunstein
07-07-2010, 02:01 PM
I don't think there is any secret formula to winning games other than having more points on the board than the other team when the final whistle is blown. A game can be won a million ways, kind of the reason we watch. Sure, if you do all the right things, the odds are in your favor but you're never guaranteed anything.

hockey619
07-07-2010, 02:04 PM
Exactly my point. There are hundreds of sub questions.

There are millions of answers to 'What wins games..' varying from gameplanning to personnel to in game coaching to execution.

Offense and defense play a complimentary role. One isn't as effective without the right partner.

Winning the turnover battle helps, yes.

Special teams can make or break games but it isn't necessary to have an elite unit, see Packers 2009. Some could argue field position wins games but that's contingent on your other units and how effective they are.

Typically anytime you rush for over 150 yards, I'd say you have a 75% chance of winning. Just a raw guess. But there are too many variables!


Variables. Thats what Im looking for. Ive put in rank of defense, rank of offense (both by points), ill put in special teams I think to help with field position, and turnovers for each offense and defense(forced) and probably playoff wins. The program runs to show you how much each really does effect the changes in the wins column.

It is a tough question to answer as a whole but im just running some numbers to see if they dissapprove the defense wins championships expression, that sort of thing.

yourfavestoner
07-07-2010, 02:06 PM
John Clayton has done some statistical work re: elite qbs records vs non-elite qbs. His conclusion is that having an elite qb helps you win. A lot.

hockey619
07-07-2010, 02:07 PM
I don't think there is any secret formula to winning games other than having more points on the board than the other team when the final whistle is blown. A game can be won a million ways, kind of the reason we watch. Sure, if you do all the right things, the odds are in your favor but you're never guaranteed anything.



Very true and not dissagreeing at all. What this does is it shows just how responsible each of those little things is. Maybe one of them is much more important and relevant than anyone realized and thats why im testing it. So is there any youd like to see about, or any you feel are undervalued (special teams for example)?

hockey619
07-07-2010, 02:08 PM
John Clayton has done some statistical work re: elite qbs records vs non-elite qbs. His conclusion is that having an elite qb helps you win. A lot.


This is a good one. Id have to decide what made an elite qb elite, but that would be a good one for sure. I couldnt use record to determine which one is elite cause im using record as the effected variable.

prock
07-07-2010, 02:12 PM
I dunno, you can win a game by any means. I would say the most important two things are quarterback play and winning the turnover battle. But there isn't a formula to win games. You can win with a suspect defense, and just outscore the other team. You can win with a poor offense, and have a stellar defense.

Having a good, clutch kicker is supremely important.

I would say you have a much better chance at winning if you can get at least one special team or defensive touchdown.

Third downs are also crucial. If you can convert on third down and stop the opponent from doing so, you have a much better chance of winning.

Is that good? You need anything else?

CJSchneider
07-07-2010, 02:14 PM
Are you going to look at variables such as complexity of offensive and defensive schemes used, individual player variables and coaching/front office personnel?

prock
07-07-2010, 02:19 PM
I feel like it is going to be almost impossible to quantify all this data. There are a million different variables. Individual players, coaches, you have to take into account players having good or bad games and figure out what percentage of their games they are playing well, matchups, weather, crowds, officiating (good and bad calls), schemes, and THEN you get into the **** I listed above. Football is too complicated of a sport.

Michigan
07-07-2010, 02:28 PM
These days all you need is a passing game and a pass rush. Kinda stupid but I guess that's what Goodell and crew want to feed us.

hockey619
07-07-2010, 02:58 PM
Are you going to look at variables such as complexity of offensive and defensive schemes used, individual player variables and coaching/front office personnel?

I feel like it is going to be almost impossible to quantify all this data. There are a million different variables. Individual players, coaches, you have to take into account players having good or bad games and figure out what percentage of their games they are playing well, matchups, weather, crowds, officiating (good and bad calls), schemes, and THEN you get into the **** I listed above. Football is too complicated of a sport.



I agree completely, there is too much going on during a game that statistics dont account for. But all those variables are why every team produces different numbers, you know what I mean? so im just gunna assume theyre accounted for maybe go hardcore and try it another time but ive got too much of a time constraint right now. I just want the raw numbers to see if they can tell us anything or if their only value is fantasy football. Maybe there are some stats that do tell us something, but im pessimistic, thus why im running it.



These days all you need is a passing game and a pass rush. Kinda stupid but I guess that's what Goodell and crew want to feed us.

I could test for it but the thing is I can only do five variables as of now for my project. I can add more later but for now im just focusing on five, now what those are are TBD, ive got two for sure (points allowed D rank/points for O rank). now its to test some other cool ones.

prock
07-07-2010, 03:03 PM
Alright, then it sounds like you have a lot of research to do. You are gonna have to do a lot of calculating. Just calculating what your chances of winning a game is with an elite quarterback compared to a non-elite quarterback won't cut it. You will have to do elite QB + elite offensive line vs. non-elite QB + average line, average QB + elite line vs. Elite QB + average line, and so on and so on. This is a pretty ******* massive undertaking. This is too much for one person to do.

tjsunstein
07-07-2010, 03:25 PM
Staying healthy doesn't hurt. See what I did there?

RealityCheck
07-07-2010, 03:28 PM
Points.10chars

wonderbredd24
07-07-2010, 03:35 PM
The more stuff changes, the more it stays the same... line play is what wins.

Those who can run the ball and stop the run as well as protect their quarterback and put pressure on the opposing team's QB win.

hockey619
07-07-2010, 03:50 PM
Today 04:03 PM
prock Alright, then it sounds like you have a lot of research to do. You are gonna have to do a lot of calculating. Just calculating what your chances of winning a game is with an elite quarterback compared to a non-elite quarterback won't cut it. You will have to do elite QB + elite offensive line vs. non-elite QB + average line, average QB + elite line vs. Elite QB + average line, and so on and so on. This is a pretty ******* massive undertaking. This is too much for one person to do.



Yeah, i know it is, **** school, totally ruins my day. Anyway yeah I could calculate for that stuff but itd take an eternity to do all that so Im just sticking to the basics for now and seeing what they show. Maybe at some point I can break it down like that but itd be hard to do without bias and more importantly my eyes are already burning out of my skull from all this typing and stuff so im trying to keep it simple for now.


Staying healthy doesn't hurt. See what I did there?

haha nice, yeah im gunna try to find weeks missed due to injury and see how that effects things but thats gunna be a ***** and a half to find i think.


Points.10chars


Yeah im checking for that just to test which is more important, Offense or Defense. Simple yet itd be cool to prove tv guys wrong or just how right they are.


The more stuff changes, the more it stays the same... line play is what wins.

Those who can run the ball and stop the run as well as protect their quarterback and put pressure on the opposing team's QB win.


Line play is definitely the most important as far as im concerned but more in the form of pass blocking as i think passing is becoming more the way of the league for now anyway. Itd be tough to calculate but if i could somehow find sacks/hurries and sack/hurries allowed (maybe by finding the number of times each qb was sacked/hurried). Rushing could be calculated by avg per rush and avg per game i guess, not too complicated.

JFLO
07-07-2010, 04:11 PM
I believe there is only one person who knows the answer to this question and he has never played in the NFL and most likely doesn't even know what football is...


bce, whenever you get a sec.

Splat
07-07-2010, 04:28 PM
It's all about the QB having one protecting him and getting to the other teams QB.

M.O.T.H.
07-07-2010, 04:28 PM
Sexy players with hot girl friends, they just win baby.

See Romo, Reggie, Brady, Austin, etc.

PackerLegend
07-07-2010, 04:31 PM
If you videotape your opponents signals that always helps.

Bucs_Rule
07-07-2010, 04:35 PM
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/

They deal with sports data.

hockey619
07-07-2010, 05:06 PM
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/

They deal with sports data.



Very legit, that has some cool stuff that could really help. Thanks a lot man



Today 05:28 PM
M.O.T.H. Sexy players with hot girl friends, they just win baby.

See Romo, Reggie, Brady, Austin, etc.


I could actually run that, my teacher knows a student who did something like that before, playboy foldouts' boob size to how the economy is doing. He found that the boobs are smaller during bad years because guys find girls who can help make money more attractive during those times and associate bigger boobs with less useful for making dough. big boobs were more popular during good economic times. That would be a fun test, rank the ladies on the classic 1-10 scale and go from there haha

trkaline
07-07-2010, 05:31 PM
Very legit, that has some cool stuff that could really help. Thanks a lot man



Today 05:28 PM
M.O.T.H. Sexy players with hot girl friends, they just win baby.

See Romo, Reggie, Brady, Austin, etc.


I could actually run that, my teacher knows a student who did something like that before, playboy foldouts' boob size to how the economy is doing. He found that the boobs are smaller during bad years because guys find girls who can help make money more attractive during those times and associate bigger boobs with less useful for making dough. big boobs were more popular during good economic times. That would be a fun test, rank the ladies on the classic 1-10 scale and go from there haha

I call bullucks on that sir! I personally give more money to chicks with big uns.

descendency
07-07-2010, 05:45 PM
Ball control, consistency, and superior talent at the core positions. (QB, LT, DE, CB, and maybe one or two others)

edit: By "ball control" I mean that you are neither turning the ball over on offense or giving up a ton on defense. Balance basically.

contento
07-07-2010, 06:43 PM
They call 3rd down the "money down" for a reason...aside from winning the turnover battle I'd say how effective your offense is on 3rd down(or how good your defense is at getting off the field on 3rd down) could play a major role in winning.

Of course I haven't looked up any of the stats so I could be blowing smoke

Shiver
07-07-2010, 09:08 PM
The great thing about the NFL is that it is a team sport, through and through. I would say QB is at the top of the priority list, but teams have shown an ability to win in a lot of different ways.

fenikz
07-07-2010, 09:14 PM
Special Teams.

scottyboy
07-07-2010, 09:22 PM
Rutgers players

M.O.T.H.
07-07-2010, 09:26 PM
Rutgers players

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3011/3074662331_fb54cb3065.jpg

Oh Yeah!

FUNBUNCHER
07-07-2010, 10:29 PM
TDs and (lack of) turnovers.

Halsey
07-07-2010, 10:35 PM
Cliches

If teams can say things like "defense wins championships" and "pass to score, run to win" they will win.

Job
07-07-2010, 11:47 PM
What do you think is a large contributer to victories in the NFL?

Let me explain the situation. Im running a regression for my class. For those that havent taken any statistics or econometrics courses the regression ill explain more below, but it will be set equal to the number of wins a team gets. On the other side I will have their statistical rank of their offense and defense based on points allowed/for as well as turnover ratings. The program will run it and tell me what things most closely correlate with wins (i.e. itll show how much each statistic is responsible for an increase in wins).


Im kinda cruising through this stuff now and its a bit of a pain and tedious but I plan on posting my results here when Im completely done in a couple of days. As of now im putting in D and O ranks according to points scored against and points for. Im also going to put in turnovers forced and turnovers if I can find the numbers, pretty sure I can.


Now my question for all of you:

What things do you think are important to winning games?

Id like to know so I can put it into my regression and test your theories as well. What else should I add in your opinion? Almost anything can be quantified (seriously, youd be amazed) but it has to be in order for this to work.

Your name suggests me you like hockey. Why do you not post in the hockey thread?

yodabear
07-07-2010, 11:57 PM
Scoring more points then the other team.

Only four posts in and I think we have found the answer.

TACKLE
07-08-2010, 12:00 AM
Having players with dreadlocks.

Texas Homer
07-08-2010, 12:09 AM
Mistake free football is nice for starters.

Brent
07-08-2010, 12:14 AM
first downs.

I bet if you looked at who had the most first downs in a game, it would likely be the winning team more often than not

PACKmanN
07-08-2010, 12:34 AM
that why we...

Auron
07-08-2010, 04:07 AM
If you want a general answer I'd say experienced veteran leadership, strength at the Quarterback position, a disciplined team that know the NFL is a long season and can take it 1 game a time (ties into no.1), smart coaching that can come up with effective schemes and adapt and adjust to situations as they come up during games, and at the end there has to be some raw talent there.

Really there are a whole slew of qualities that will win you games in the NFL those are just a few a team needs to be successful in my opinion.

tjsunstein
07-08-2010, 07:39 AM
Penalties, lack there of rather.

Fico
07-08-2010, 11:01 AM
College, but still might be useful.

http://barkingcarnival.fantake.com/2010/06/24/adjusted-stats-2009-year-in-review-part-i/

BigDawg819
07-08-2010, 11:16 AM
What things do you think are important to winning games?


You play to win the game. Hello? You play to win the game.

BeerBaron
07-08-2010, 02:38 PM
Take a look in my sig. That's my opinion on the matter.

TitanHope
07-08-2010, 02:54 PM
1. QB play
2. Turnover margin
3. Not making stupid Avy bets. :(

badgerbacker
07-08-2010, 02:54 PM
If you're only doing 5 variables, I would say go Points scored, points allowed, turnover differential, average time of possession, and maybe penalty yardage. Obviously lots of things influence wins, but I think those would be 5 easy ones to look at.

JF4
07-08-2010, 03:04 PM
1. Trenches
2. QB play
3. Coaching

BigDawg819
07-08-2010, 03:24 PM
Las Vegas oddsmakers and the Mafia

nepg
07-09-2010, 09:33 AM
Aside from the obvious (score more points than the other team)...

Ball control, and field position...

Addict
07-09-2010, 09:51 AM
how much you pay Roger Goodell?

hell if we knew the answer to that question this would be a forum full of head coaches.

yourfavestoner
07-09-2010, 11:59 AM
how much you pay Roger Goodell?

hell if we knew the answer to that question this would be a forum full of head coaches.

Roger Goodell, son of a former NY senator, his father in law was White House Chief of Staff under Bush Sr. Dude's got connections.

Although, I will say that he's not quite as intimidating as Stern. Stern is on the CFR. If you piss him off, he has the connections to make you disappear in the middle of the night, and you'll wake up in Guantanamo.