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View Full Version : Prospect of the Day: QB Christian Ponder, Florida State


Mr. Goosemahn
08-16-2010, 02:15 PM
Okay, so I got a bit behind on these and missed a couple, so I'll put them up right now:

To see previously discussed prospects, click here.
Jake Locker - http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?p=2230943
Cameron Heyward - http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=41890
Marvin Austin - http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=41892
Adrian Clayborn - http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=41919
Anthony Castonzo - http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=41929
Greg Romeus - http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=41940
Von Miller - http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?p=2238637
Mike Pouncey - http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=41959
Allen Bailey - http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=41971
Mark Herzlich - http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=41993
Prince Amukamara - http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=42000
Gabe Carimi - http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=42014
Patrick Peterson - http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=42030
Terrance Toliver - http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=42042
Noel Devine - http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=42053
DeAndre McDaniel - http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=42063
A. J. Green - http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=42070
Jonathan Baldwin - http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=42075
Michael Floyd - http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=42089
Joseph Barksdale - http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=42098
Bruce Carter - http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=42108
Rodney Hudson - http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=42122
Marcus Cannon - http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=42132
Jerrell Powe - http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=42149
Kyle Rudolph - http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=42196
Ryan Mallett - http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=42210


http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/sports_college_fsu/files/2010/07/0706christianponder.jpg

QB Christian Ponder, Florida State
6'3 - 228 lbs. - Senior

Highlights!

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A notch below Locker and Mallet, IMO, but a good QB nonetheless. Is he injury prone?

TACKLE
08-16-2010, 02:26 PM
In almost every mock I see, they have him going in the late first to the Vikings. My question is what separates a guy like Mark Sanchez, who was a top 10 pick, from Christian Ponder. If Ponder takes another step forward, he will be taken in the top 10-15 by a QB needy team.

prock
08-16-2010, 02:29 PM
I think the reason Ponder is going late is that the quarterback position looks to be so stacked at the top, with Mallet, Locker, and potentially Luck. In some years, he could be taken top 10, and he could go late first in this class. But I love Ponder, he just does everything well. He isn't flashy, but I see him as top 10-15 quarterback in this league for a long time.

AntoinCD
08-16-2010, 02:41 PM
In almost every mock I see, they have him going in the late first to the Vikings. My question is what separates a guy like Mark Sanchez, who was a top 10 pick, from Christian Ponder. If Ponder takes another step forward, he will be taken in the top 10-15 by a QB needy team.

I think the difference so far is after Stafford last year, the next best guy at QB was Sanchez. There was the possibility of Bradford coming out to be the top guy but I'm not sure it ever picked up enough steam. If you were to compare both years; Locker would be Stafford, Ponder would be Sanchez and Andrew Luck would be Bradford(a guy who may come out and throw the whole thing up in the air, but probably will stay in school). The one thing stopping Ponder going higher like Sanchez did is Ryan Mallett. As things stand Ponder needs to have a great year to get up to the top 10 as I don't see all 3 or maybe 4 QBs going that high. Somewhere around where Freeman was taken makes sense for Ponder right now


EDIT: Am I the only one who thinks Ponder doesn't seem to step into some of his throws? He always seems to be slightly leaning backwards which is maybe causing a loss of velocity on some balls

Razor
08-16-2010, 02:42 PM
In almost every mock I see, they have him going in the late first to the Vikings. My question is what separates a guy like Mark Sanchez, who was a top 10 pick, from Christian Ponder. If Ponder takes another step forward, he will be taken in the top 10-15 by a QB needy team.

I agree with this, but with Mallet and Locker (and potentially Luck) there are others that are better prospects with higher upside. However, Ponder is by far my favourite prospect at QB at this point. He's going to be succesful in the league because of his excellent intangibles and his skillset, which is perfectly suited for the NFL imo.

BeerBaron
08-16-2010, 02:44 PM
I think the reason Ponder is going late is that the quarterback position looks to be so stacked at the top, with Mallet, Locker, and potentially Luck. In some years, he could be taken top 10, and he could go late first in this class. But I love Ponder, he just does everything well. He isn't flashy, but I see him as top 10-15 quarterback in this league for a long time.

This.

Locker and Mallett are potentially two of the most elite QB prospects to come around in quite a while.

I think Ponder fits into the Matt Ryan, Alex Smith, Mark Sanchez category where he isn't an elite prospect, but in a down year with a needy team, he would get pushed up.

However, this year looks pretty stacked. Assuming they don't tank completely, Locker and Mallett should be top 5-7 locks, so two QB needy teams will be off the board there. In the (unlikely imo) chance that Luck comes out, he would have to have had a monster year and would likely be a top 10 lock as well.

Ponder isn't a slouch or bad prospect, but if the teams who need QBs end up getting the elite guys early, Ponder won't likley be pushed up the draft boards.

TACKLE
08-16-2010, 02:45 PM
I don't know why people think Luck is such a threat to Ponder's draft status. Ponder is clearly better.

BeerBaron
08-16-2010, 02:48 PM
I don't know why people think Luck is such a threat to Ponder's draft status. Ponder is clearly better.

I think that the only way Luck comes out is if he has a monster year, and that coupled with his better measurables will push him ahead.

That said, I don't expect Luck to come out this year. I think he might actually have a rough go as the offense's main weapon with Gerhart gone.

A Perfect Score
08-16-2010, 02:56 PM
I think at this point, unless Luck has an absolutely dominant season and shows significant progress in several key areas (especially his mid range accuracy), he won't declare. That leaves Ponder as the definite #3 QB and a guy I think is a top 20 pick. Love the athleticism, love the intangibles, and even though I do think his actual arm strength and accuracy both leave a little to be desired, Ive a feeling he will make due in the pros. A real good QB who we could see fall a bit due to the top heavy talent in Locker and Mallett.

TACKLE
08-16-2010, 02:56 PM
I think that the only way Luck comes out is if he has a monster year, and that coupled with his better measurables will push him ahead.

That said, I don't expect Luck to come out this year. I think he might actually have a rough go as the offense's main weapon with Gerhart gone.

Ya I'd be very surprised if he came out.

JHL6719
08-16-2010, 03:47 PM
Kinda reminds me of a more athletic/better scrambling version of Chad Pennington as a prospect.

A Perfect Score
08-16-2010, 03:49 PM
Kinda reminds me of a more athletic/better scrambling version of Chad Pennington as a prospect.

Thats actually a really good comparison. He's very Aaron Rodgers-esque in alot of his movements as well.

BeerBaron
08-16-2010, 04:04 PM
Thats actually a really good comparison. He's very Aaron Rodgers-esque in alot of his movements as well.

It might just be since he's been a starter, but I think Rodgers is all around a little 'quicker'...I don't remember how he looked in that department as a prospect though.

I like the Pennington comparison too btw. Similar in their lack of elite measurables too.

prock
08-16-2010, 04:57 PM
Pennington pre-shoulder surgeries.

Babylon
08-16-2010, 05:00 PM
He sort of reminds me more of a Jimmy Clausen, a guy who was good in many areas but not great in any one category.

As for Luck he'll throw more this year and when did a Stanford team not be able to get the ball to it's receivers, i look for him to come out.

marshallb
08-16-2010, 05:00 PM
Ponder's my favorite prospect of this class. I am very, very high on him, and I liken him to Aaron Rodgers or Tony Romo. I agree with TACKLE and prock in that most years he would be a top 10-15 pick, but this class isn't a normal QB class. Ponder doesn't have elite measurables, but his arm is strong enough, he's accurate, he's definitely plenty athletic, and is a great leader. My dream is for him to end up where he's going in almost every mock, Minnesota. He'd be a perfect fit for the west coast offense that the Vikings run, and would have an elite set of weapons at his disposal, and since I feel he will be very pro-ready by the time next fall rolls around he could step in quickly and keep the team at the top.

Texas Homer
08-16-2010, 06:01 PM
I've seen him play some, but I don't know too much about him. He is from Texas. I'm rooting for him.

yourfavestoner
08-16-2010, 06:28 PM
Ponder's my favorite prospect of this class. I am very, very high on him, and I liken him to Aaron Rodgers or Tony Romo. I agree with TACKLE and prock in that most years he would be a top 10-15 pick, but this class isn't a normal QB class. Ponder doesn't have elite measurables, but his arm is strong enough, he's accurate, he's definitely plenty athletic, and is a great leader. My dream is for him to end up where he's going in almost every mock, Minnesota. He'd be a perfect fit for the west coast offense that the Vikings run, and would have an elite set of weapons at his disposal, and since I feel he will be very pro-ready by the time next fall rolls around he could step in quickly and keep the team at the top.

<3 him as a prospect, desperately want him in Jacksonville. I've compared him to Romo as well.

Brent
08-16-2010, 06:51 PM
I love Ponder, right now. I hope he has a monster season and goes to a team that needs him, like Jacksonville. Though something tells me that ridiculous amount of UF fans in Jacksonville might make life hard for Christian Ponder.

marshallb
08-16-2010, 07:02 PM
I love Ponder, right now. I hope he has a monster season and goes to a team that needs him, like Jacksonville. Though something tells me that ridiculous amount of UF fans in Jacksonville might make life hard for Christian Ponder.

hey, hey now. Minnesota needs him more than anybody, I mean come on, we've got Tarvaris Jackson as our starting QB(and even he's a FA after this season), at least Jacksonville has David Garrard. ;)

BeerBaron
08-16-2010, 07:07 PM
You guys love Ponder quite a bit more than I do....His lack of elite measurables turns me off to him as a real high pick. I know they don't mean everything, but they definitely mean something, and he really isn't anything too special in that department, especially compared with his top competition in Locker and Mallett.

princefielder28
08-16-2010, 07:19 PM
He moves very well in the pocket and on his feet in general, but he lacks the necessary arm strength to make the good majority of throws in the NFL...by no means is he a bad quarterback prospect but I don't see as anything more than a game manager...I think he's a good fit to go in the early to mid second round

jrdrylie
08-16-2010, 07:47 PM
hey, hey now. Minnesota needs him more than anybody, I mean come on, we've got Tarvaris Jackson as our starting QB(and even he's a FA after this season), at least Jacksonville has David Garrard. ;)

As a Jacksonville native, I'm not really sure David Garrard is any better than Tarvaris Jackson. As for Ponder, I think he'll be the second QB taken. Locker will almost certainly go first. Redshirt Sophomores coming out is extremely rare for QBs. Players like Bradford and Rex Grossman could have come out after massive years, but decided to stay. I see the same thing with Luck.

I actually think Ryan Mallett is going to have a Jevan Snead type fall. Maybe not to the late rounds, but at the end of the day, I seriously doubt he is a first rounder. People are enamored with his huge arm, but other than that, he is an average prospect.

BeerBaron
08-16-2010, 07:57 PM
I strongly disagree about Mallett. Playing the SEC won't be a picnic, but as was pointed out in the prospect thread about him, he was in the top 8 in the nation in passer efficiency and the 3rd best out of the QBs in BCS conferences.

As long as he doesn't completely implode like Snead, and I don't think he will, his talent level makes him a top 10 caliber prospect. Ponder will definitely go behind him and Locker short of one of them getting hurt or tanking it.

jrdrylie
08-16-2010, 08:07 PM
I'd counter that not many people expected Snead to bomb like he did. His high level of passer rating is misleading as he plays in a very QB-friendly offense. What I really don't like about him is his low completion percentage (55.8). But like I said, I don't think his fall will be as bad Snead's. But I do think it will be somewhere between Rogers and Clausen, maybe as bad as Trent Edwards.

BeerBaron
08-16-2010, 08:19 PM
I'd counter that not many people expected Snead to bomb like he did. His high level of passer rating is misleading as he plays in a very QB-friendly offense. What I really don't like about him is his low completion percentage (55.8). But like I said, I don't think his fall will be as bad Snead's. But I do think it will be somewhere between Rogers and Clausen, maybe as bad as Trent Edwards.

So many college offenses are becoming QB friendly nowadays though. We just saw Sam Bradford go #1 coming out of a spread offense, and there have been very few college spread QBs to make the transition to the pros successfully, and those that do often take a few years to fully adjust (Brees, Orton, VY kinda....there really aren't many.)

Plus with his immense physical tools, someone will fall in love and think they can turn him into the next elite QB. Even an average type of season should still see him go fairly high.

yourfavestoner
08-16-2010, 08:25 PM
So many college offenses are becoming QB friendly nowadays though. We just saw Sam Bradford go #1 coming out of a spread offense, and there have been very few college spread QBs to make the transition to the pros successfully, and those that do often take a few years to fully adjust (Brees, Orton, VY kinda....there really aren't many.)

Plus with his immense physical tools, someone will fall in love and think they can turn him into the next elite QB. Even an average type of season should still see him go fairly high.

On the other hand, the most successful rookie/young QB in NFL history came from a primarily shotgun/spread offense (Roethlisberger).

I've been saying it for a long time, the only significant advantage that comes from playing in a pro style system in college is the QB/center exchange and footwork.

BeerBaron
08-16-2010, 08:29 PM
On the other hand, the most successful rookie/young QB in NFL history came from a primarily shotgun/spread offense (Roethlisberger).

I've been saying it for a long time, the only significant advantage that comes from playing in a pro style system in college is the QB/center exchange and footwork.

Marino made the pro bowl as a rookie ;)

But back to the main point, if the offense didn't hurt Bradford, it certainly won't hurt Mallett. I'd be totally shocked if Ponder were drafted ahead of him short an injury or meltdown.

And to the 2nd part, I think it hurts them when it comes to seeing the field. Taking every snap out of the shotgun means the QB never has to turn his back on the defense and doesn't have to scan the field while dropping back. And with the speed increase in the pro game meaning that things can change real quick, that spread QB is at a major disadvantage until they get used to it.

Paranoidmoonduck
08-16-2010, 08:30 PM
I really want to see more consistency from Ponder, but he's a really strong possibility for the 1st round. In a QB starved class, he'd be a top 15 threat (as some have said), but he's going to look pretty average next to the very toolsy Mallett and Locker.

There's a lot to like about Ponder. I'll be watching him as close as any player in the nation this season.

yourfavestoner
08-16-2010, 08:49 PM
Marino made the pro bowl as a rookie ;)

But back to the main point, if the offense didn't hurt Bradford, it certainly won't hurt Mallett. I'd be totally shocked if Ponder were drafted ahead of him short an injury or meltdown.

And to the 2nd part, I think it hurts them when it comes to seeing the field. Taking every snap out of the shotgun means the QB never has to turn his back on the defense and doesn't have to scan the field while dropping back. And with the speed increase in the pro game meaning that things can change real quick, that spread QB is at a major disadvantage until they get used to it.

Meh, it's not like being in the gun completely eliminates a drop back. It also doesn't force the QB to stay completely square to the LOS during his reads either. Most QBs will still open towards the side of their first read and scan across the field, the same way they would during a normal dropback. You are right, though, in that it's a completely new set of muscle memory that must be developed, and that takes time. It's not something that's impossible (or even that hard) to be learned, it's just a habit that must be developed through repetition.

I've said for a long, long time on this board that people have the mixed up the cause and effect of spread QB busts. Here are a couple posts I've made on the subject.

I think we have cause and effect mixed up when it comes to spread quarterbacks.

Look at the list you just provided. The only one on their that even comes close to having a physical skillset to succeed in the pros is Rex Grossman - and even he is seriously lacking in the height and decision making department.

It's not that the spread makes these the translation to the NFL harder, because most spread offenses require their quarterbacks to still make difficult reads and put the ball in the right place according to what the defense is doing. What the spread really does is hide a quarterback who is unable to push the ball downfield by stretching the field horizontally with multiple wide receivers. It requires them to make NFL type reads but not NFL type throws. The spread maximizes these quarterbacks strengths and hides their weaknesses.

I've said it time and time again: people have the cause and effect mixed up with spread quarterbacks. When a spread QB sucks in the NFL it's not because of the system he played in during college. It's because he always sucked, but the spread hid his deficiencies and his coaches didn't ask him to make throws he couldn't make. That's what's beautiful about the spread: you can literally attack any area of the field that you want to.

Also, look at Stafford/Sanchez. What they ran in college was as "pro style" as you could get, yet they still struggled mightily compared to Joe Flacco, a shotgun/spread QB (who played I-AA, at that).

Rosebud
08-16-2010, 09:03 PM
Kid reminds me of Trent Edwards who I liked a lot and looked like he was going to be a really good QB until he got concussed and scared.

katnip
08-17-2010, 01:01 PM
Didn't really impress me when I watched FSU vs 'Canes last fall/year. But I see the potential. A lot of it, to me

TACKLE
08-17-2010, 01:22 PM
Didn't really impress me when I watched FSU vs 'Canes last fall/year. But I see the potential. A lot of it, to me

He looked very impressive in that game. What game were you watching?

katnip
08-17-2010, 01:24 PM
He looked very impressive in that game. What game were you watching?

same game

maybe its cause i'm really biased vs the 'noles, and they lost. plus, I have a bad memory

619
08-17-2010, 01:54 PM
Didn't really impress me when I watched FSU vs 'Canes last fall/year. But I see the potential. A lot of it, to me

One of the most memorable college games of last season (at least for me) , and he was a big reason why. I don't know what you're talking about.

If it helps, he may also be one of the more intelligent QBs in next year's class, and it really shows on the field at times, too.

JeffSamardzijaIRISH
08-17-2010, 02:00 PM
Wow, most of you guys have Ponder rated very high, maybe too high.

As an FSU fan, I see him as a better Colt McCoy. Ponder is quicker, stronger, bigger, has a better arm, runs a similar offense(lots of screens and short throws), and is a very good college QB, but I don't know how much of that will translate to the pro's.

Ponder has certainly improved tenfold from his abortion of a sophomore year to a Heisman-contending junior year, but I'll have to see how he plays as a senior before considering him a top-15 or even first round pick.

619
08-17-2010, 02:16 PM
Wow, most of you guys have Ponder rated very high, maybe too high.

As an FSU fan, I see him as a better Colt McCoy. Ponder is quicker, stronger, bigger, has a better arm, runs a similar offense(lots of screens and short throws), and is a very good college QB, but I don't know how much of that will translate to the pro's.

Ponder has certainly improved tenfold from his abortion of a sophomore year to a Heisman-contending junior year, but I'll have to see how he plays as a senior before considering him a top-15 or even first round pick.

See, what you have to understand is that not every QB prospect is going to be like Stafford, or Locker and Mallett for that matter.

Based on everything you said, in the right system (WCO - Seattle?), why can't he be a first round pick? He does everything well, like a Sanchez for argument's sake, and is a very mature individual with the right intangibles and make-up for the position. I believe it's a no-brainer with this guy.

I know using McCoy draft situation last year is faulty logic, because every year is different, but to me it's quite apparent in watching college tape of each player whose skills translate best to the pro ranks.

descendency
08-17-2010, 02:58 PM
The only question I really have is how strong his arm really is. If it's better than Kyle Orton's, he's a potential top 10 QB (in the NFL, not all time) for quite a few years. If it's not, he could become Chad Pennington after leaving NY.

TACKLE
08-17-2010, 03:19 PM
The only question I really have is how strong his arm really is. If it's better than Kyle Orton's, he's a potential top 10 QB (in the NFL, not all time) for quite a few years. If it's not, he could become Chad Pennington after leaving NY.

I know its just a Youtube highlight clip but its a pretty impressive display of his arm strength.

B-Jar435rnc

BeerBaron
08-17-2010, 03:21 PM
The love for Ponder is getting a to be a bit much now. As I've said before, I think that in a different year without elite prospects at the position, Ponder could rise up like a Matt Ryan to a QB needy team. But with Locker and Mallett, barring injury or an unexpectantly terrible season for one of those guys, Ponder will be drafted after both.

Babylon
08-17-2010, 03:35 PM
The love for Ponder is getting a to be a bit much now. As I've said before, I think that in a different year without elite prospects at the position, Ponder could rise up like a Matt Ryan to a QB needy team. But with Locker and Mallett, barring injury or an unexpectantly terrible season for one of those guys, Ponder will be drafted after both.

Include Andre Luck, who would probably come out with a good year. Being the 4th best QB in a strong draft is going to land you in the middle of the 2nd round. He could have a nice career like a Tony Romo but to me his skill set and competion at the position screams 2nd rounder to me.

prock
08-17-2010, 04:29 PM
It screams late first round to the Vikings to me.

Mr. Offseason
08-18-2010, 09:43 AM
I really like Ponder and I think he is going to end up a top 15 pick, somewhere in that range. Locker and Mallett will go high if Mallett declares, especially if he improves this year, and Locker will do the same if he continues to progress like he did last year, but if Ponder progresses he could easily go top 15 because he is a good QB, he's very accurate, he is poised, he seems to be a good leader with good intangibles (obviously that is just my perception, I can't say for sure) and I think he could be one of the better QB's out of this draft class. I honestly like him as much as Locker and more than Mallett, just because he is a significantly lower risk than Mallett in my eyes.

BeerBaron
08-18-2010, 11:44 AM
I really like Ponder and I think he is going to end up a top 15 pick, somewhere in that range. Locker and Mallett will go high if Mallett declares, especially if he improves this year, and Locker will do the same if he continues to progress like he did last year, but if Ponder progresses he could easily go top 15 because he is a good QB, he's very accurate, he is poised, he seems to be a good leader with good intangibles (obviously that is just my perception, I can't say for sure) and I think he could be one of the better QB's out of this draft class. I honestly like him as much as Locker and more than Mallett, just because he is a significantly lower risk than Mallett in my eyes.

Significantly lower ceiling too compared with Mallett's immense tools. It's what will keep Mallett ahead of Ponder barring a complete meltdown or injury, as I've said a few times in this thread already.

D-Unit
08-18-2010, 12:48 PM
Closet FSU fan... but I love Ponder. Maybe it's a bias, but I don't see how Locker is that much better than him. Ponder is a better passer, is equally good on his feet. He's a fighter who doesn't want to give up. The only thing I don't like about Ponder is that he still makes one too many mental mistakes. I hope this year he turns the corner in that regard.

BeerBaron
08-18-2010, 01:06 PM
Closet FSU fan... but I love Ponder. Maybe it's a bias, but I don't see how Locker is that much better than him. Ponder is a better passer, is equally good on his feet. He's a fighter who doesn't want to give up. The only thing I don't like about Ponder is that he still makes one too many mental mistakes. I hope this year he turns the corner in that regard.

Disagree. Locker is also thicker with a stronger looking build and NFL arm strength. Remember, when he got hurt a couple of seasons ago, the team was thinking about playing him at S to get him back on the field faster. I don't think Ponder is nearly that athletic or strong.

It's not knock against Ponder I don't believe, but without self-destruction or injury to Locker and Mallett, I just don't foresee him being drafted ahead of either. He's a quality prospect in his own right, but those guys offer so much in terms of potential, and NFL coaches love that. Locker and Mallett have the physical tools to be Steve Young and John Elway-esque, and some NFL is going to try to be the guy who brings that out in either.

Babylon
08-18-2010, 01:07 PM
Closet FSU fan... but I love Ponder. Maybe it's a bias, but I don't see how Locker is that much better than him. Ponder is a better passer, is equally good on his feet. He's a fighter who doesn't want to give up. The only thing I don't like about Ponder is that he still makes one too many mental mistakes. I hope this year he turns the corner in that regard.

Probably going to get blasted for bringing Locker into the conversation but you brought it up....

I'm warming to Ponder but as of right now i think he's a poor man's Jake Locker. Not quite as big, or fast and doesnt have the arm. In terms of accuracy and going through their progressions they may be more similar.

JHL6719
08-18-2010, 01:12 PM
Locker and Mallet also have the potential to be the next Heath Shuler or Jim Druckenmiller too....

Ryan Leaf had more potential than Peyton Manning physically,... but Polian saw something in the the intangibles...

I just think that if a team gets skiddish about one of the next "golden boys" (Locker or Mallet) for some reason, that it's not out of the realm of possibility that one of them could slip and Ponder be the 2nd QB off the board..

...it's very unlikely that BOTH of Locker and Mallet could slip, but one of them certainly could.

BeerBaron
08-18-2010, 01:34 PM
Locker and Mallet also have the potential to be the next Heath Shuler or Jim Druckenmiller too....

Ryan Leaf had more potential than Peyton Manning physically,... but Polian saw something in the the intangibles...

I just think that if a team gets skiddish about one of the next "golden boys" (Locker or Mallet) for some reason, that it's not out of the realm of possibility that one of them could slip and Ponder be the 2nd QB off the board..

...it's very unlikely that BOTH of Locker and Mallet could slip, but one of them certainly could.

You're absolutely right, but it seems that NFL teams prefer taking the shot on the boom or bust guy than to go with the guy who probably won't be terrible but doesn't really have the elite physical tools either.

It's the answer to the whole "Why did Jamarcus Russel go #1" question. NFL teams see a guy who blows them away with his physical abilities, and they think that they can harness those abilities and make the the kid a superstar.

As recent as a year ago I would have disagreed with that philosophy. I wasn't a fan of boom or bust types and would rather take the safe guy.

But then, my team acquired a QB with elite physical skills and I was astounded. For a couple seasons, I watched Kyle Orton run the offense and would have defended him to the death as a quality QB who won't make mistakes and can play well enough to win games.

But then, in the very first game I watched Cutler play in as a Bear, I was blown away with what he could do. Say what you will about his flaws, but some of the throws he can make are just amazing. Throws that Orton couldn't dream of making.

So I've started to see why NFL teams will take the chance on the potential elite player over the guy who will only ever be solid. It just opens up the playbook so much more and allows you to do so much more.

And I think that is why we'll see both Mallett and Locker go ahead of Ponder short of a self-destruction or injury. Ponder might very well be a good player. He was compared to a more athletic Chad Pennington and I agree with that comparison. But like I just said, Mallett and Locker have arm strength, size, and athleticism to be absolutely elite, and I think most teams will take the chance on one of them rather than go with Ponder.

And Ponder is far from a guarantee...no draft prospect is ever truly safe I suppose. As has been mentioned a few times here, he will make mental mistakes and still has to show that he is improved this season before he can be talked about as a first round pick.

JHL6719
08-18-2010, 01:40 PM
Yes no draft pick is ever sure fire...

However, I believe there is a threshold that you have to cross pertaining to arm strength in order to play in the NFL, and/or be a high pick... he has to be able to make all the throws.

After you cross that threshold of arm strength.... the excess arm strength becomes overkill... and accuracy, decision making, and intangibles become much more important factors at that point.

I think Ponder crosses that threshold of arm strength to play in the NFL and be a 1st round pick rather comfortably.... it's going to boil down to what kind of season(s) all the QB's have and how certain teams feel each prospects fits best in their respective offense...

It's going to be interesting for sure..

Babylon
08-18-2010, 01:52 PM
Yes no draft pick is ever sure fire...

However, I believe there is a threshold that you have to cross pertaining to arm strength in order to play in the NFL, and/or be a high pick... he has to be able to make all the throws.

After you cross that threshold of arm strength.... the excess arm strength becomes overkill... and accuracy, decision making, and intangibles become much more important factors at that point.

I think Ponder crosses that threshold of arm strength to play in the NFL and be a 1st round pick rather comfortably.... it's going to boil down to what kind of season(s) all the QB's have and how certain teams feel each prospects fits best in their respective offense...

It's going to be interesting for sure..

In defense of your position i think Ponder is physically equal to a Mark Sanchez, the only differance is he'll have to climb over two guys and maybe a third in Andrew Luck. Not sure there are 4 teams wanting to spend a 1st on a QB in a strong draft like this one.

CashmoneyDrew
08-18-2010, 02:06 PM
Buffalo, Cleveland, Jacksonville, maybe Kansas City, Minnesota, Seattle, maybe the 49ers........

I could see 4 QBs going in the first in this next draft.

prock
08-18-2010, 02:20 PM
Yes no draft pick is ever sure fire...

However, I believe there is a threshold that you have to cross pertaining to arm strength in order to play in the NFL, and/or be a high pick... he has to be able to make all the throws.

After you cross that threshold of arm strength.... the excess arm strength becomes overkill... and accuracy, decision making, and intangibles become much more important factors at that point.

I think Ponder crosses that threshold of arm strength to play in the NFL and be a 1st round pick rather comfortably.... it's going to boil down to what kind of season(s) all the QB's have and how certain teams feel each prospects fits best in their respective offense...

It's going to be interesting for sure..

I agree to some extent. While I do think there is a threshold of necessary arm strength, having that elite arm strength is still an advantage. I agree with BB, after having **** quarterbacks for years (Brad Johnson, Gus Ferrotte, Tavaris Jackson, etc) and then having Favre, that elite arm strength really makes a difference. It adds whole new dimensions for a team. Having a threshold level arm is good, and I would love Ponder on the Vikings, but he won't get above Locker or Mallet because of that extra zip, unless one of them has a Snead-esque bomb of a year.

BeerBaron
08-18-2010, 02:22 PM
Buffalo, Cleveland, Jacksonville, maybe Kansas City, Minnesota, Seattle, maybe the 49ers........

I could see 4 QBs going in the first in this next draft.

Well, let's just apply some draft logic to all those teams.

I'd say that at least two of them come away not needing a QB. Maybe Alex Smith plays well for the 49ers, Cassel improves for the Chiefs, Garrard for the Jags. Or, maybe Delhomme plays well enough to buy another season as starter and allows them to develop McCoy some more, or Hasselbeck plays well enough for the Seahawks to buy him another year and time to develop Whitehurst further. I'd be willing to say that maybe two of those scenarios work out.

And it seems that every year, at least one or two surprise QBs emerge somewhere in the league and look appealing as starters. Maybe a start QB gets hurt and his backup plays well, creating an opportunity for one of them to be traded, like the Cassel and Brady situation. I'm not sure who or where it could happen...maybe Dennis Dixon gets a shot to play and plays real well, making he or Ben have good trade value. Something like that....so maybe one or two of those teams finds their QB of the future that way.

So let's just say that 4 of those teams find a starter by some other means, and they don't draft one in the first round. So that leaves the 4 others. And if we learned anything by Clausen taking a tumble last year, or Rodgers and Quinn in years before that, it's that some teams might just not like the guy and will pass on him.

So even though there are quite a few teams that could in theory need a first round QB, maybe only 2 or 3 would actually take one. And there's the chance that some other QBs surprise and move up draft boards, or these teams might prefer guys who could be around in the 2nd or 3rd round...

I do think that Locker, Mallett and Ponder will be first rounders, but I expect the first two to go to the first two needy teams while Ponder slides. It's just how I see things as of right now at least....a long season still ahead could switch that up though.

D-Unit
08-20-2010, 03:53 PM
Disagree. Locker is also thicker with a stronger looking build and NFL arm strength. Remember, when he got hurt a couple of seasons ago, the team was thinking about playing him at S to get him back on the field faster. I don't think Ponder is nearly that athletic or strong.

It's not knock against Ponder I don't believe, but without self-destruction or injury to Locker and Mallett, I just don't foresee him being drafted ahead of either. He's a quality prospect in his own right, but those guys offer so much in terms of potential, and NFL coaches love that. Locker and Mallett have the physical tools to be Steve Young and John Elway-esque, and some NFL is going to try to be the guy who brings that out in either.
That's true. Locker is a much better runner and he has the better build for it. That never attracted me much as a trait for an NFL QB though. Locker has a stronger arm too, but Ponder has plenty enough range and has more touch. Scouts go gaga over arm strength, but it has fooled them many times too.

I don't know who the best QB prospect is yet, but there's no clear cut guy for me right now. Locker has A LOT to prove. He didn't make the step that I thought he would last year "passing wise" with Sarkisian. If Sark can help him make big strides this year, then we can talk about an elite QB talent. Right now he is not.

BeerBaron
08-20-2010, 04:33 PM
I don't know who the best QB prospect is yet, but there's no clear cut guy for me right now. Locker has A LOT to prove. He didn't make the step that I thought he would last year "passing wise" with Sarkisian. If Sark can help him make big strides this year, then we can talk about an elite QB talent. Right now he is not.

All 3 of the top guys have a great deal to prove. And this is the first draft in a while that I can recall not having a clear cut favorite early in the process. I do think that Locker and Mallett's superior physical tools are going to give them an advantage over Ponder though.

If he shows improvement this year, he can definitely be a first round pick, and in other years without those guys with elite physical tools, he could even work himself into the top QB spot. But he's going to have a hard time of that this year in my mind.

marshallb
08-20-2010, 08:17 PM
All 3 of the top guys have a great deal to prove. And this is the first draft in a while that I can recall not having a clear cut favorite early in the process. I do think that Locker and Mallett's superior physical tools are going to give them an advantage over Ponder though.

If he shows improvement this year, he can definitely be a first round pick, and in other years without those guys with elite physical tools, he could even work himself into the top QB spot. But he's going to have a hard time of that this year in my mind.

I agree with you a lot here, I don't think that Ponder can jump both Locker and Mallett, and he probably won't leapfrog either of them. I do think that he's still a very good QB prospect and will make some playoff team looking to extend their run or some near playoff team, who could use a QB upgrade, very happy in the late 1st, or if he does fall to the early 2nd, whatever team that passed on or missed out on Mallett and Locker will be ecstatic and will be a step further ahead in the rebuilding process as long as they make the right decision in the first round.

Ponder's a guy that I don't really see being an elite QB, but I also don't see him busting. Same way that I've felt with Rodgers, Quinn, Ryan, and Clausen in recent years. Rodgers has gone on to be elite, Quinn has busted, Ryan seems like he's gonna fall into that very solid category, and we don't know yet with Clausen.