PDA

View Full Version : Any locks for the week?


General Zod
09-08-2010, 07:01 AM
Ive been know to bet on a game here and there through the week if I like the spread. And I figured we have a pick the winner thread, why not have a point spread thread too. For people like me :-)

So who's the locks for this week?


Favorites listed on the left; underdogs on the right. Home teams in capital letters.

NEW ORLEANS 5 Minnesota 48
NY GIANTS 7 Carolina 41
Miami 3 BUFFALO 39
Atlanta 2 PITTSBURGH 37
CHICAGO 7 Detroit 43
NEW ENGLAND 4 Cincinnati 45
TAMPA BAY 3 Cleveland 37
JACKSONVILLE 2 Denver 40
Indianapolis 2 HOUSTON 47
TENNESSEE 6 Oakland 40
Green Bay 3 PHILADELPHIA 47
San Francisco 3 SEATTLE 37
Arizona 4 ST LOUIS 39
Dallas 4 WASHINGTON 40

Monday, Sep. 13
NY JETS 2 Baltimore 36
San Diego 4 KANSAS CITY 45

tjsunstein
09-08-2010, 08:07 AM
There are never locks but I do like quite a few spreads.

Indianapolis -2.
Sam Francisco -3.
Green Bay -3.
Dallas -4.

nepg
09-08-2010, 08:09 AM
I'd take that Detroit spread all day long.

Others:
Miami
Indy
Dallas
SF

abaddon41_80
09-08-2010, 08:33 AM
With those spreads Miami (-3), Indy (-2), San Francisco (-3), New England (-4.5), and Baltimore (+2.5) are my top 5 "locks"

Smooth Criminal
09-08-2010, 09:04 AM
Take the under in the GB Philly game as long as its raining.

tjsunstein
09-08-2010, 09:27 AM
The weather is highly overlooked when placing bets. Always check the forecast.

xxxxxxxx
09-08-2010, 10:07 AM
The colts have the super bowl losers curse.. beware.

RufusMcDaniel
09-08-2010, 11:38 AM
Jimmy says the Denver/Jacksonville game is too close to call. ``But
if you're one of those compulsive types who just has to bet, well,
I don't know... um... Denver.''

yourfavestoner
09-08-2010, 11:50 AM
Jimmy says the Denver/Jacksonville game is too close to call. ``But
if you're one of those compulsive types who just has to bet, well,
I don't know... um... Denver.''

Dunno what the weather has been like in Denver the past month, but teams historically have a very, very, very hard time playing in hot, humid Jacksonville in September. I think the spread is just about right on that one.

vidae
09-08-2010, 11:54 AM
I'm going to the MNF game at Arrowhead against the Chargers, so I guarantee that one of the teams will walk out of there with a W.

prock
09-08-2010, 11:56 AM
I will take those Minny, Indy, and Detroit spreads every day.

FlyingElvis
09-08-2010, 12:05 PM
NY GIANTS 7 Carolina 41

Miami 3 BUFFALO 39

TENNESSEE 6 Oakland 40

San Diego 4 KANSAS CITY 45


I like these four favorites to destroy the spreads.

Smooth Criminal
09-08-2010, 12:12 PM
The weather is highly overlooked when placing bets. Always check the forecast.

Me and my friends bet the under with rain last season and it almost always won. Most betters don't take weather into account, so the over/under is usually far too high for a game in the rain.

General Zod
09-08-2010, 02:02 PM
NY GIANTS

San Diego 4 KANSAS CITY 45


I like these four favorites to destroy the spreads.

I dont know, seems like KC always plays SD tight at home.

Bucs_Rule
09-08-2010, 04:12 PM
Many people expect the Bills to be the league's worst team. They should get beat by double digits by a good Dolphins team.

I initially was going to say the Chargers should beat KC by a lot, but I worry about how big the loss of Jackson and McNeil will be. The Chargers also start off very slowly.

Shiver
09-08-2010, 04:21 PM
I would put my money on San Francisco destroying Seattle.

umphrey
09-08-2010, 04:41 PM
Green Bay, Atlanta, San Diego, in that order.

Green Bay matches up excellent with the Eagles on both sides of the ball. It's a case where strengths and weaknesses work heavily in our advantage. Kevin Kolb won't be able to keep up with Aaron Rodgers in his first game, not even close.

Atlanta is consistent, they have a reliable QB, the offense can move the ball. I am completely confident that the Steelers offense is going to be the worst, #32 in the league, for the first 4 weeks. They should have started Batch.

San Diego will show up on Monday night. They are talented, like always, and the Chiefs are definitely not. Philip Rivers is going to tear it up even though he's missing some players. Rivers is an absolute stud. He doesn't need Vincent Jackson to rip apart even a good defense.

Bonus: Indy over Houston. Indy has a ridiculous regular season record and they are true professionals that will show up in regular season form week 1. Not sure that's true about Houston. Also Houston has been getting a lot of hype all offseason. Wouldn't be surprised if they came out flat, maybe open the season 4-4 very similar to the Packers last year.

P-L
09-08-2010, 04:47 PM
Bonus: Indy over Houston. Indy has a ridiculous regular season record and they are true professionals that will show up in regular season form week 1. Not sure that's true about Houston. Also Houston has been getting a lot of hype all offseason. Wouldn't be surprised if they came out flat, maybe open the season 4-4 very similar to the Packers last year.
I wouldn't be so confident in Indy. Like Shiver mentioned in another thread, they will likely be starting UDFA Jeff Linkenbach at left tackle and he'll be going up against Mario Williams most of the game.

umphrey
09-08-2010, 04:52 PM
I wouldn't be so confident in Indy. Like Shiver mentioned in another thread, they will likely be starting UDFA Jeff Linkenbach at left tackle and he'll be going up against Mario Williams most of the game.

That's good to know. I knew they had some new holes in their line this year. I'm pretty sure Peyton will still put together good drives all game but I wouldn't put money on it. They might have to use Dallas Clark as a blocker most of the game.

Shiver
09-08-2010, 04:59 PM
Houston took them to the brink twice last year. If I am not mistaken they had the lead against the Colts in both games. It will be tough to knock them off in their home opener, let alone with such a terrible situation on their O-Line. I have a feeling Houston makes a huge statement and knocks off the Colts.

21ST
09-08-2010, 05:04 PM
The steelers should beat the falcons straight up atlanta just isnt very impressive

umphrey
09-08-2010, 05:25 PM
What are the games you wouldn't touch either way?

CC.SD
09-08-2010, 05:26 PM
Indy 2 over Texans is a huuuuge lock.

Sniper
09-08-2010, 05:27 PM
Charles Woodson skull******* Kevin Kolb is a solid bet.

yourfavestoner
09-08-2010, 05:27 PM
What are the games you wouldn't touch either way?

I would run like hell from NE-Cincy and Ari-Stl.

tjsunstein
09-08-2010, 05:57 PM
I would run like hell from NE-Cincy and Ari-Stl.
Well, I like the over in the New England game. The Patriots will have to throw like hell to keep up with the Bengals especially if the Bengals expose the Pats secondary like I think they should and will.

Brodeur
09-08-2010, 06:03 PM
Detroit is going to beat Chicago, so I'd make them a lock to be the spread.

Brent
09-08-2010, 06:25 PM
Ari-Stl.
I like the upset potential in this one. Who knows what kind of QB play the Cards are going to get and there are so many new faces in STL.

That, and I kind of just want to see STL win that game.

umphrey
09-08-2010, 06:31 PM
Well, I like the over in the New England game. The Patriots will have to throw like hell to keep up with the Bengals especially if the Bengals expose the Pats secondary like I think they should and will.

I like that one too and I think if Detroit loses it will be by a field goal. Too scared to bet on it though because I don't know exactly what the Bears are going to look like this year and even though the Lions dwarf them on talent it's a young team that's used to losing and they can lose to the worst team in the league any given Sunday just because they aren't mentally prepared.

tjsunstein
09-08-2010, 06:33 PM
I like that one too and I think if Detroit loses it will be by a field goal. Too scared to bet on it though because I don't know exactly what the Bears are going to look like this year and even though the Lions dwarf them on talent it's a young team that's used to losing and they can lose to the worst team in the league any given Sunday just because they aren't mentally prepared.
I could see a blowout by Chicago, or a close win by either team. I think it's sloppy regardless. Screams no action to me.

CashmoneyDrew
09-08-2010, 06:54 PM
-Baltimore
-Dallas
-Tennessee
-Indy
-Detroit

CC.SD
09-08-2010, 06:57 PM
-Baltimore
-Dallas
-Tennessee
-Indy
-Detroit

Voodoo you are doing a crappy job quitting this board, I like it

General Zod
09-08-2010, 07:01 PM
Well im getting good responses, so you all might be helping me fuel my betting addiction! lol

I might make a thread like this every week. :-)

Werowance
09-08-2010, 07:49 PM
Green Bay matches up excellent with the Eagles on both sides of the ball. It's a case where strengths and weaknesses work heavily in our advantage. Kevin Kolb won't be able to keep up with Aaron Rodgers in his first game, not even close.

Woah there, I agree the Packers win but the match-ups are hardly "heavily in our (Packers) advantage."

One huge Eagles advantage is the Eagles pass rush, the Eagles with a depleted pass rush still managed 44 sacks and now the Eagles upgraded their front seven immensely with the additions of Brandon Graham, Darryl Tapp, Daniel Teo`-Neshiem, Antwan Barnes along with a healthy Stewart Bradley and Akeem Jordan. The reason I bring linebackers in is because statistically, the Eagles were the team that blitzed the most in the NFL last season. Now consider that the Packers gave up 51 sacks last season along with 93 QB hits, the Eagles very clearly have the advantage in the trenches. And the Eagles clearly have the advantage on special teams as well. A good pass rush and good special teams has swung games in the past and the Eagles are favored in both of those match-ups.

And the Packers really don't have any huge advantages, the Packers have a good run game -> the Eagles have one of the best run defenses in the NFL, the Packers have a good secondary -> the Eagles have very good pass catching options. This pass rush of the Packers isn't "heavily favored" either, the Eagles have handled guys like Ware, Orakpo, Carter, Haynesworth, Osi, Tuck, Kiwi, Ratliff and Spencer in the past so I doubt the Eagles are terribly afraid of Clay Matthews, especially considering Jason Peters shut DeMarcus Ware down twice last season and Ware is infinitely better than Matthews. And, the Packers lost Jolly for the year due to suspension and the Packers pass rush wasn't all that impressive to begin with. The match-up is pretty even outside of the QB match-up.

And the one match-up issue that both teams have in common is that neither team can defend a good tight end, the Packers were killed by guys like Vernon Davis, Jason Witten, Kellen Winslow and Heath Miller last season and the Eagles are perennially one of the worst tight end defending teams in the NFL.

The Packers will win because of Aaron Rodgers is infinitely better than Kolb. If you think the Packers are going to blow the Eagles out, you'll be sorely disappointed. The Packers will win because of the Rodgers to Finley combination and because Kolb will make about 2 mistakes that he shouldn't make especially when facing Charles Woodson and Nick Collins.

Brodeur
09-08-2010, 07:51 PM
The Packers don't have a good secondary.

Werowance
09-08-2010, 07:55 PM
The Packers don't have a good secondary.

5th ranked pass defense in the NFL last season, that is manned by the reigning NFL DPOY, one of the best ball hawking safeties in the NFL (Collins), a stud rookie in Burnett and a guy the Packers organization is really high on in Tramon Williams at CB. I wouldn't say they're great because one could argue their passing yards per game is a fluke but what you can't argue is that there is talent in the Packers defensive backfield.

Bucs_Rule
09-08-2010, 08:11 PM
5th ranked pass defense in the NFL last season, that is manned by the reigning NFL DPOY, one of the best ball hawking safeties in the NFL (Collins), a stud rookie in Burnett and a guy the Packers organization is really high on in Tramon Williams at CB. I wouldn't say they're great because one could argue their passing yards per game is a fluke but what you can't argue is that there is talent in the Packers defensive backfield.

Except in the only game that mattered.

I expect they will have fixed a lot of their problems with bunched formations, but the Eagles would add wrinkles to complicate matters.

I do agree that they have talent, they were just so confused in the playoff game.

The eagles have a great offense with speedy receivers. That can give older corners problems, at some point Harris and Woodson will start to slow down.

The Colts have owned the Texans. Recently it was due to the Texans choking. Super Bowl losers have really struggled the following year. The only two recently to make the playoffs were in the horrible NFC West and Seattle was much worse.

CC.SD
09-08-2010, 08:21 PM
5th ranked pass defense in the NFL last season, that is manned by the reigning NFL DPOY, one of the best ball hawking safeties in the NFL (Collins), a stud rookie in Burnett and a guy the Packers organization is really high on in Tramon Williams at CB. I wouldn't say they're great because one could argue their passing yards per game is a fluke but what you can't argue is that there is talent in the Packers defensive backfield.

Yikes.

Woodson is going to need to have a monster year again especially with how the GB offense is going to point up points

wogitalia
09-09-2010, 06:04 AM
Am I the only one who really likes the Saints over my Vikes?

Just seems like an ideal matchup for them with our suspect secondary and serious doubts about our WRs?

FlyingElvis
09-09-2010, 09:38 AM
Well, I like the over in the New England game. The Patriots will have to throw like hell to keep up with the Bengals especially if the Bengals expose the Pats secondary like I think they should and will.

The secondary is going to be solid. It's the total lack of pass rush the Bengals will expose. But, yes, the over should be an easy pick in what should turn into a shootout.

wogitalia
09-09-2010, 10:51 PM
Am I the only one who really likes the Saints over my Vikes?

Just seems like an ideal matchup for them with our suspect secondary and serious doubts about our WRs?

So did anyone take my advice? I unfortunately got greedy and moved the line to +6 to deal with my OCD regarding whole numbers... Luckily had twice the amount on the regular line as I did on the +6 to still ended up overall...

Also, I learned that it is a disgusting dirty feeling to bet against your own team, especially on the line where you can get the double whammy of your team losing and your bet losing...

Ravens vs Jets is my next "lock" not a fan of what the Jets have done this offseason. They are entirely reliant on Shonn Greene improving significantly for the running game to be as good as last year. Revis hasn't practiced, no Holmes or Pace, 2nd year QB.

Basically the Ravens have improved everywhere but their secondary and I don't think the Jets have the pieces to take advantage of that weakness.

Also really like Green Bay to cover against the Eagles. Too many weapons on offense and good matchups on defense.

wogitalia
09-12-2010, 07:55 PM
Also really like Green Bay to cover against the Eagles. Too many weapons on offense and good matchups on defense.

So didn't factor in Vick, but still got the pick.

So 2 of 2 with the Ravens to take me to 3 of 3 hopefully tomorrow.

Throw in College with LSU over UNC, Boise over VT and Bama over Penn St and I've have a nice little start to the season!

If only I hadn't had a horrible end to the AFL season over here to offset it, I'd have retired by now ;)

Jvig43
09-12-2010, 09:36 PM
Well, I like the over in the New England game. The Patriots will have to throw like hell to keep up with the Bengals especially if the Bengals expose the Pats secondary like I think they should and will.

This post is win.

FlyingElvis
09-13-2010, 10:05 AM
NY GIANTS 7 Carolina 41

Miami 3 BUFFALO 39

TENNESSEE 6 Oakland 40

San Diego 4 KANSAS CITY 45


I like these four favorites to destroy the spreads.

I am, as Dan Patrick is known to say, en fuego. Chargers could put me at four for four, even if Miami failed to "destroy" the spread.

nepg
09-13-2010, 10:32 AM
I'd take that Detroit spread all day long.

Others:
Miami
Indy
Dallas
SF
Wow... Well at least I got a couple and was money with the Detroit one.

General Zod
09-14-2010, 04:26 PM
Well, how did you do?

NEW ORLEANS 5 Minnesota 48 push
NY GIANTS 7 Carolina 41
Miami 3 BUFFALO 39
Atlanta 2 PITTSBURGH 37
CHICAGO 7 Detroit 43
NEW ENGLAND 4 Cincinnati 45
TAMPA BAY 3 Cleveland 37 push
JACKSONVILLE 2 Denver 40
Indianapolis 2HOUSTON 47
TENNESSEE 6 Oakland 40
Green Bay 3 PHILADELPHIA 47
San Francisco 3 SEATTLE 37
Arizona 4 ST LOUIS 39 push
Dallas 4 WASHINGTON 40

Monday, Sep. 13
NY JETS 2 Baltimore 36
San Diego 4 KANSAS CITY 45

wogitalia
09-14-2010, 07:51 PM
3 for 3 for me. Baltimore, Green Bay and the Saints all covered their lines.

tjsunstein
09-14-2010, 07:52 PM
Well, I like the over in the New England game. The Patriots will have to throw like hell to keep up with the Bengals especially if the Bengals expose the Pats secondary like I think they should and will.

I could see a blowout by Chicago, or a close win by either team. I think it's sloppy regardless. Screams no action to me.
Well, I was right on both my posts. Maybe what I thought what would happen didn't but the over hit and no action on the Chicago game was a good idea.

This week:

Philadelphia -3.5
Green Bay -13.5
Minnesota -5.5
Minnesota/Miami O40
New Orleans -5