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Tom Servo
12-30-2010, 09:21 AM
Every year you hear the phrase "the safest pick in the draft" being thrown around. Who is it this year?

I'm thinking Cam Heyward myself, maybe Wisniewski

thegreatone
12-30-2010, 09:28 AM
Not exactly a first round talent, but Lee Ziemba seems like a very safe 2nd to 3rd rounder.

He'll be an average RT at worst.

Halsey
12-30-2010, 09:29 AM
That depends on what you mean by safe. Andrew Luck might not be as 'safe' a pick in some ways as some other players, but if he declares it would be a huge risk for a team to pass on him, so I say Luck.

Tom Servo
12-30-2010, 09:35 AM
Thought about Luck, as he does seem a sure thing, but I'm reluctant to call any QB a safe pick

Tom Servo
12-30-2010, 09:36 AM
Agreed on Ziemba, but primarily focused on the first round

thegreatone
12-30-2010, 09:45 AM
In that case, I would agree with Wisniewski.

Blackmon seems like a safe pick to as well.

JPP90
12-30-2010, 09:46 AM
AJ Green. Stud WR and you know what you're getting. I give him the nod over Luck because its lot easier for Green to go out and catch passes than Luck to quarterback a bad team. Both are pretty safe to me but Green is a slam dunk.

wonderbredd24
12-30-2010, 09:49 AM
Prince Amukamara

LonghornsLegend
12-30-2010, 09:53 AM
I don't like this term, because recently when you hear it thrown around that guy ends up being average or sucking. Aaron Curry and Brian Robiske immediately popped into my head. Give me the guys with tremendous potential that need coached up vs the "safe" picks.


I know that wasn't what you asked, but just my random thought about it.

wonderbredd24
12-30-2010, 10:00 AM
I don't like this term, because recently when you hear it thrown around that guy ends up being average or sucking. Aaron Curry and Brian Robiske immediately popped into my head. Give me the guys with tremendous potential that need coached up vs the "safe" picks.


I know that wasn't what you asked, but just my random thought about it.
Robiskie has been decent as of late. This is certainly not the path anyone expected him to take in the NFL, but at least he has shown flashes he's not a UFL guy as of late. Hopefully he can build on this for next year.

Halsey
12-30-2010, 10:01 AM
It's not safe to pass on a potential franchise changing QB for a stud WR, DB or whatever. AJ Green, for example, just doesn't have the potential to do for an organization what Luck does. Ask Arizona how much a star WR can do without a quality starting QB. AJ Green couldn't prevent UGA from being mediocre the past 2 years. Stanford has had two great years with Luck.

JPP90
12-30-2010, 10:09 AM
It's not safe to pass on a potential franchise changing QB for a stud WR, DB or whatever. AJ Green, for example, just doesn't have the potential to do for an organization what Luck does. Ask Arizona how much a star WR can do without a quality starting QB. AJ Green couldn't prevent UGA from being mediocre the past 2 years. Stanford has had two great years with Luck.

Yeah that's an urban legend. Ask Oakland about passing on a slam dunk WR for a potential franchise QB. Calvin Johnson's doing a little bit better than Jamarcus Russell now. I'm not saying Green will go first but I think he's the safer pick.

wonderbredd24
12-30-2010, 10:10 AM
It's not safe to pass on a potential franchise changing QB for a stud WR, DB or whatever. AJ Green, for example, just doesn't have the potential to do for an organization what Luck does. Ask Arizona how much a star WR can do without a quality starting QB. AJ Green couldn't prevent UGA from being mediocre the past 2 years. Stanford has had two great years with Luck.
You're a Georgia fan. You should know better.

This year Georgia was 1-3 without him and 5-3 with him.

Halsey
12-30-2010, 10:15 AM
You're a Georgia fan. You should know better.

This year Georgia was 1-3 without him and 5-3 with him.

Stanford was 11-1 with Luck this year, and their only loss came to Oregon.

Monomach
12-30-2010, 10:24 AM
For someone who could go in the first round, I'd go Wisniewski.

Morton
12-30-2010, 10:34 AM
Da'Quan Bowers.

There's no way he doesn't turn into a Julius Peppers type of player in the NFL.

thebow305
12-30-2010, 10:38 AM
I'd probably say A.J. Green in the 1st round.

But I also think Mark Ingram is a safe pick in the 1st, as is Kendall Hunter outside the 1st.

That's if I HAD to pick. But if you know the draft well, you know there is a no SAFE pick.

wicket
12-30-2010, 10:46 AM
Da'Quan Bowers.

There's no way he doesn't turn into a Julius Peppers type of player in the NFL.

exactly the same was said of gaines adams, supremely athletic DEnds are never safe picks.

If there was a top rated linebacker id go there but as it is I think AJ Green is about as safe as they come, he might not be a stud but he will always be a decent wideout

Shane P. Hallam
12-30-2010, 10:47 AM
I'll go Anthony Castonzo. Safe to contribute somewhere, but definitely not a superstar.

Aaron Curry and Brian Robiske immediately popped into my head

And I think people were right. They were safe to contribute, not be great. Both are doing just that.

Morton
12-30-2010, 10:54 AM
exactly the same was said of gaines adams, supremely athletic DEnds are never safe picks.


I wouldn't say that.

I'd say that as long as they are elite athletes, the chances they don't become above-average players at some point are very slim. At a certain level of athleticism, the player can get by simply on that alone to some degree.

Look at Jason Pierre-Paul from last year. Supremely athletic but lots of questions about his playing time and his inteligence, among other things. But he's playing at the highest level of all of the DEs picked last year and looks like a future Pro Bowler.

no bare feet
12-30-2010, 10:56 AM
Da'Quan Bowers.

There's no way he doesn't turn into a Julius Peppers type of player in the NFL.

You just jinxed him, he is now bound to bust.

D-Unit
12-30-2010, 12:15 PM
Ummm no mention of Patrick Peterson. For shame on this forum!!!

JustDezIT
12-30-2010, 12:18 PM
In that case, I would agree with Wisniewski.

Blackmon seems like a safe pick to as well.


He's the farthest thing from a safe pick. He's had one good year.

killxswitch
12-30-2010, 12:33 PM
Cam Newton, Marvin Austin, or Malcolm Floyd.

Tom Servo
12-30-2010, 12:35 PM
^^^
I'm pretty skeptical of Blackmon myself, think he's a boom or bust type dude. I realize tho that the Browns desperately need that no.1 reciever. Don't know that any of this crop of wrs are safe picks really

tenorx
12-30-2010, 12:59 PM
Safest picks usually turn into average guys (Gallery, Curry, Robiskie, etc.)

FuzzyGopher
12-30-2010, 01:38 PM
Ummm no mention of Patrick Peterson. For shame on this forum!!!

Agreed. You can put him at corner and if he struggles you have the ability to move him to safety. I think guys with the flexibility to play multiple positions offer more safety than say, a quarterback, who would only be playing that position his whole career.

I also like Prince as a fairly safe pick, I just love the way he plays in run support and he plays with good technique.

JPP90
12-30-2010, 01:42 PM
Cam Newton, Marvin Austin, or Malcolm Floyd.

Beofre I throw my lunch up in my mouth, I'm gonna assume you made a funny.

killxswitch
12-30-2010, 02:19 PM
Beofre I throw my lunch up in my mouth, I'm gonna assume you made a funny.

That was the goal but I'm not sure it came across that way. Also, I meant Michael, not Malcolm.

thebow305
12-30-2010, 05:45 PM
Ummm no mention of Patrick Peterson. For shame on this forum!!!

Damn you're right. Peterson is gonna be a stud, no doubt about it!

LonghornsLegend
12-30-2010, 05:54 PM
And I think people were right. They were safe to contribute, not be great. Both are doing just that.

Brian Robiske was said to be a very strong ROY candidate. A contributor from day one, and at worst a solid #2 WR. He's struggled to really do anything well but at least recently he's tried to do something.


Curry has struggled alot more then people expected to. While he was safe he was supposed to be a really solid LB just maybe not an all pro, he hasn't even got to the point where he's really good.


Both are under performing and could still be considered bust, they are far from the "safe" label people gave them.

umphrey
12-30-2010, 06:11 PM
Justin Blackmon
JJ Watt
Nick Fairley
Ryan Kerrigan
AJ Greene
Andrew Luck
Patrick Peterson

Somewhere in that order. Although I expect Luck to stay and JJ Watt is a 50/50 stay/go.

I'd say Gabe Carimi and Prince Amukamara, but there is a decent chance Carimi gets drafted as a LT and the coaching staff settles on using him as a RT or guard. Similarly with Prince he might get drafted as a corner and move to safety, a la Antrel Rolle.

Safest picks usually turn into average guys (Gallery, Curry, Robiskie, etc.)
I disagree. There are some guys that aren't athletic enough to be good in the NFL and they don't get drafted in the first or second round because they only project to backups. I've seen a lot of "safe" picks made by the Packers in the last 5 years that turned out to be way better than expected. I think Clay Matthews comes to mind. Greg Jennings definitely. AJ Hawk supports your point, but then again, he's playing at a high level, just under pro bowl standards this year.

etk
12-30-2010, 06:32 PM
Leonard Hankerson. Great work ethic, good size and speed. It's funny that Robiskie was mentioned because Hankerson is a more talented, harder working version of Robiskie.

RaiderNation
12-30-2010, 06:57 PM
Luck is the first guy off the top my head. I also think guys like Gabe Carimi, Adrian Clayborn and AJ Green are guys I cant see being less than above average players

ellsy82
12-30-2010, 07:51 PM
Clayborn eh? He's been the most inconsistent first round prospect I've seen all year. Played the Misso game with no heart. Was he double/triple teamed most of the time? Sure, but I didn't see the effort. And that wasn't my first Iowa game I've seen this year where that happened.

Safest Picks?
Amukamara
Dareus
Watt

49erNation85
12-30-2010, 08:48 PM
I am still very surprised no one dropped Jake Locker in this mix so I am going too.I know hes had a bad season at Washington and all.But I really think hes going to come out strong in the senior bowl week and just go all out in the work outs and everything make it back into the top ten picks as so many teams are in need a QB this year .I would take him over Newton , but that is just me.The Huskies are just such a bad team this year it hurts him.

JPP90
12-30-2010, 09:15 PM
I am still very surprised no one dropped Jake Locker in this mix so I am going too.I know hes had a bad season at Washington and all.But I really think hes going to come out strong in the senior bowl week and just go all out in the work outs and everything make it back into the top ten picks as so many teams are in need a QB this year .I would take him over Newton , but that is just me.The Huskies are just such a bad team this year it hurts him.

I think most GMs would take him over Newton too. When it comes down to it and your job is linked to it, its tough to take a guy like Newton top 15. You won't see a guy like Holmgren or Pioli doing it...it'll take a renegade/dipshit like Al Davis or Buddy Nix.

umphrey
12-30-2010, 11:38 PM
I am still very surprised no one dropped Jake Locker in this mix so I am going too.I know hes had a bad season at Washington and all.But I really think hes going to come out strong in the senior bowl week and just go all out in the work outs and everything make it back into the top ten picks as so many teams are in need a QB this year .I would take him over Newton , but that is just me.The Huskies are just such a bad team this year it hurts him.
what.

Jake Locker is my #1 QB and I'm a big supporter of him. However he's had some terrible, terrible games this year. He has flaws in his game. Coachable flaws, but in the wrong hands it could get ugly. Also, he's a QB, which is the least reliable position. Andrew Luck is the only QB I could put on my "sure thing" list in recent memory, and he barely makes the cut.

49erNation85
12-31-2010, 12:26 AM
umphrey,
As I very much agree you .I'm just saying probably 80% or what ever the number may be is on the Newton ass bandwagon because he is the SEC and crap . I love the watching the sec just like the rest of us .But he only has to make certain reads and then takes off , just like many times Tebow did .I love Locker and dear god I hope the 49ers draft and get a better coaching staff in there .He could be a great QB in the NFL . Let Buffalo have Newton lol

WiSeIVIaN
12-31-2010, 06:48 AM
I'm a Luck lover, but I'd never ever ever ever name a QB the safest pick in the draft. There is just so much that goes into the jump from NCAA to NFL, and it's impossible to tell how a player will react to a change in system, the pressure of fans (top prospect), relationships with older teammates, film study, ect ect.

Luck has no warning signs, but I'll be damned if he's the "safest guy in the draft".


I'll go with Prince since worst case he's still a solid starter at CB.

WiSeIVIaN
12-31-2010, 06:50 AM
what.

Jake Locker is my #1 QB and I'm a big supporter of him. However he's had some terrible, terrible games this year. He has flaws in his game. Coachable flaws, but in the wrong hands it could get ugly. Also, he's a QB, which is the least reliable position. Andrew Luck is the only QB I could put on my "sure thing" list in recent memory, and he barely makes the cut.

I completely agree with this. There is no way on earth that locker should be mentioned in a "safest pick" thread. Are some of you really so in love with locker that you can't help but mention him in every thread?


I'm gonna go make a "Best O-Lineman in the draft" thread, and I guarantee you someone is gonne mention Jake Locker...

LizardState
12-31-2010, 01:08 PM
Ummm no mention of Patrick Peterson. For shame on this forum!!!

Definitely Peterson.

Maybe Wisniewski too.

DBNYDP
12-31-2010, 01:32 PM
Mark Ingram is going to be a solid player.

Morton
12-31-2010, 02:23 PM
Clayborn eh? He's been the most inconsistent first round prospect I've seen all year. Played the Misso game with no heart. Was he double/triple teamed most of the time? Sure, but I didn't see the effort. And that wasn't my first Iowa game I've seen this year where that happened.

Safest Picks?
Amukamara
Dareus
Watt

Agree on Clayborn, but Dareus and Amukamara as safe picks? No way. Dareus has "motivational issues" written all over him, and Amukamara's inability to stay with elite WRs has made me wonder if he won't be one of these highly touted, technically sound CB prospects who ends up being a marginal NFL player due to lack of elite athleticism that is exposed on the next level.

Babylon
12-31-2010, 04:21 PM
That was the goal but I'm not sure it came across that way. Also, I meant Michael, not Malcolm.

I'm glad you cleared that up because i was like WTF! Floyd i feel good about out of those 3.

shylo3716
12-31-2010, 04:27 PM
Can't go wrong with A.J. Green

jrdrylie
12-31-2010, 04:33 PM
Can't go wrong with A.J. Green

Watching the Liberty Bowl, it has to be AJ Green. He is big, fast, and strong. If he can put on some more weight without losing speed, he will be one of the top WRs in the league.