PDA

View Full Version : B-U-S-T Potential


JHL6719
01-18-2011, 03:40 PM
Without discussing names like Tyrod Taylor, etc. (who in my opinion has approximately 0% chance of playing quarterback in the NFL) and guys like him that are going to be later round picks, if drafted at all, who are the players that are likely to be selected in the first 3 rounds or so that have the highest B-U-S-T potential?

It could be because of overrated talent, immaturity, attitude, character concerns, lack of work ethic, lack of durability, lack of physicality, one year wonder, etc... any number of things.

What are everyone's opinions on who the highest of high risk prospects are in this draft?


I'm looking at guys like:

Cam Newton
Ryan Mallett
Greg Little
Jonathan Baldwin
Nate Solder
Ras-I Dowling
Rahim Moore
DeAndre McDaniel
Akeem Ayers
Marvin Austin
Nick Fairley
Da'Quan Bowers



These are the main prospects who when I just try to take everything into consideration, seem like they come with the most B-U-S-T potential.

Thoughts?

BeerBaron
01-18-2011, 03:42 PM
Unless there is a sudden significant injury that derails their career, I don't see Fairley or Bowers having a high bust potential. The rest of your list I can agree with.

Morton
01-18-2011, 03:44 PM
Fairley has significant bust potential due to character and motivational concerns. He's the anti-Suh in that regard: Suh was an elite talent with flawless character, but Fairley is an elite talent with sketchy character.

Bowers probably won't ever be a complete scrub, but I could easily see him "only" being a 4-5 sack a year type of run-stopping DE.

D-Unit
01-18-2011, 03:45 PM
I think Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbard have more bust potential than Andy Dalton, Pat Devlin and Christian Ponder.

BeerBaron
01-18-2011, 03:45 PM
Outside of Fairley recently saying he didn't want to play in the cold, what else has he done to give him character concerns?

Morton
01-18-2011, 03:48 PM
Outside of Fairley recently saying he didn't want to play in the cold, what else has he done to give him character concerns?

- He's been known to make "dirty" plays on field.

- He's not especially bright. Listening to him speak and comparing it to the way Suh handled himself in interviews last year you are struck by the huge disparity between the two

- He takes plays off, which points to motivational factors which will come to light when he gets a big "payday"

- He's a JUCO transfer. Now, normally you shouldn't hold that against people, but the fact of the matter is, these guys do tend to struggle more than traditional athletes that went through a four year school

JHL6719
01-18-2011, 03:53 PM
D-Unit nailed what I was looking for in a way. I don't think anyone would argue that Devlin, Ponder, or Dalton are more talented than Mallett, Locker, or Gabbert.... but he makes a great point about those guys that could potentially be selected in the first 3 rounds or so having significantly less bust potential than the other 3, even if they're less likely to be stars.


I've just always been leary of one year wonders at any position.. and especially at defensive tackle. Fairley wasn't even a starter last year, and according to his own coaches never really showed the motivation to be one. I think they were more surprised by Fairley's break out season than anyone.

Not to mention his penchant for playing "dirty" and taking cheap shots at quarterbacks... I don't know, Fairley just seems like a risky pick to me.

Menardo75
01-18-2011, 04:03 PM
Fairley is a one year wonder which always scares me since those guys never seem to work out. Also Locker for the obvious reasons but also huge durability concerns.

keylime_5
01-18-2011, 04:26 PM
Da'Quan Bowers has pretty high bust potential. Takes plays off, doesn't have the best motor you want in a top 5 pick at DE, but he'll be a starter for a long time even if he doesn't produce the amount of QB pressure and sacks that he did at Clemson this year b/c of his size and athleticism.

diabsoule
01-18-2011, 04:27 PM
Players who strike me as busting: Cam Newton, DaQuan Bowers, Nate Solder, Adrian Clayborn, Blaine Gabbert, and Ryan Mallett. I'm on the fence about Robert Quinn and Cameron Heyward

Prowler
01-18-2011, 04:38 PM
Rahim Moore is safe. He had a ton of ints a year ago, but teams knew who he was this year. He basically took this year and honed his in the box skills. IMO, he can do it all now. He can still cover, and is now a better tackler.

Tom Servo
01-18-2011, 04:45 PM
Definitely the Auburn two. Fairley has Gerard Warren written all over him. Newton, I think is more dependent on where he goes. Dude plays balls out but needs to land in the right system, though thats pretty much true for all qbs

SimonRath
01-18-2011, 05:28 PM
- He's a JUCO transfer. Now, normally you shouldn't hold that against people, but the fact of the matter is, these guys do tend to struggle more than traditional athletes that went through a four year school

this totally means hes gonna be a bust. everyone knows JUCO transfers cant play in the NFL.

FUNBUNCHER
01-18-2011, 05:52 PM
Can't be a 'bust' unless you're selected in the first 4 rounds IMO, since a 'bust' is a prospect who's drafted with very lofty expectations and fails to reach or even approach that plateau.

All the top QB prospects have the same 'bust' potential, when looking at their pros/cons.

PossibleCabbage
01-18-2011, 06:50 PM
I think Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbard have more bust potential than Andy Dalton, Pat Devlin and Christian Ponder.

Isn't that obviously the case? Since we measure "bust" largely by comparing expectations and results. If someone is drafted in the first round, much more is expected of him than someone drafted in the fifth round. People don't even bat an eye when a sixth round pick fails to make it out of camp.

GB12
01-18-2011, 07:05 PM
Von Miller. He's going to get destroyed by NFL tackles.

D-Unit
01-18-2011, 07:30 PM
Isn't that obviously the case? Since we measure "bust" largely by comparing expectations and results. If someone is drafted in the first round, much more is expected of him than someone drafted in the fifth round. People don't even bat an eye when a sixth round pick fails to make it out of camp.
I think you're talking about bust risk. The busk risk is higher for the first round candidates because of the cost of the investment. But the bust factor imo, is relatively the same for all. Bust factor is irregardless of draft position. Bust factor, it's just how you would rate them based off their tools and ability to succeed in the league. At least that's how I look at it.

Usually, the players taken earlier in the draft have less bust potential. That's WHY they go when they go. The risk is lessened. But obviously this year's QB draft is not your typical one. The bust factors of the guys being mentioned in the first round are unusually high, but their success factors make them attractive. Newton, Locker, Mallet, Gabbard could all be very successful or all be complete busts. Their bust factors are high and their bust risks is high. Where as the guys like Dalton, Devlin and Ponder may not have as high ceilings, but their floors are higher and since they will be taken later, they have less bust risk.

Hope that makes sense.

Halsey
01-18-2011, 07:40 PM
(insert top QB prospect) is overrated! (insert mid to late round QB prospect) is being way underrated!

BeerBaron
01-18-2011, 08:00 PM
(insert top QB prospect) is overrated! (insert mid to late round QB prospect) is being way underrated!

We've had our disagreements but this got me to chuckle a bit because it is pretty much the truth around these parts for many people.

D-Unit
01-18-2011, 08:02 PM
We've had our disagreements but this got me to chuckle a bit because it is pretty much the truth around these parts for many people.
It got me to laugh too. But the Locker vs Newton debates have been the exception.

cajuncorey
01-18-2011, 10:20 PM
hmm allen baileys name hasnt been suggested yet. wierd considering hes a complete workout warrior. (i am a big fan though)

wogitalia
01-18-2011, 11:08 PM
this totally means hes gonna be a bust. everyone knows JUCO transfers cant play in the NFL.

I think it depends on why they went to a JUCO as to whether it is relevant or not. Guys like Rodgers who were unrecruited out of HS I don't see it as a genuine concern. Guys who couldn't be bothered/were too stupid to get the grades to be eligible for college then I do feel that it is a pretty solid character concern. I believe that Fairley fits in the second category but I'm happy to be proven wrong.

He does have character concerns and I'm always worried about 1 year wonders who come out of nowhere and then declare.

For mine the guys with the most bust potential are the 4 quarterbacks who all have massive concerns.

Mallett, Newton, Gabbert and Locker all are massive risk/reward guys. They could all be franchise QBs and they could all bust out and I really don't have a feeling on any of them other than that for some reason I feel best about Gabbert but still don't feel great.

jrdrylie
01-18-2011, 11:41 PM
Newton, Mallet, Solder, and Baldwin for me. Newton's offense doesn't translate at all to the NFL, Mallet has character, accuracy, and intelligence issues. Solder looks like a top-ten pick sometimes and others he looks like a late rounder. And Baldwin might be one-dimensional.

I don't understand people saying Bowers might bust. I think he is one of the safest picks. I don't think he will ever be a 15 sack guy, but whoever drafts him should be able to stick him in the starting lineup and get 8-10 sacks for the next decade.

Bald_81
01-19-2011, 12:32 AM
I'm surprised no one has said Julio Jones yet. Does he not have some qualities about him that exude the "bust" label?

TACKLE
01-19-2011, 12:40 AM
I'm surprised no one has said Julio Jones yet. Does he not have some qualities about him that exude the "bust" label?

I used to think so but I've definitely changed my tune on him. I actually don't think he has that great of a downside at all. Even if he doesn't play up to the level of where he is selected, he can still be a big bodied presence and a physical possession receiver who can move the chains.

AntoinCD
01-19-2011, 02:38 AM
I'm surprised no one has said Julio Jones yet. Does he not have some qualities about him that exude the "bust" label?

I would actually say Julio Jones is one of the safer WR prospects. I think he has less chance of busting than AJ Green. As TACKLE said, even if Julio doesn't become a perennial pro bowler or 1000 yard WR he will still be a big, strong target who can block and will therefore find a role in the NFL.

GaMeTiMe
01-19-2011, 02:45 AM
Tyron Smith..Mark Ingram..all the QBs..Marcus Cannon..Ras I-Dowling

AntoinCD
01-19-2011, 02:54 AM
Tyron Smith..Mark Ingram..all the QBs..Marcus Cannon..Ras I-Dowling

Ingram??? Im surprised to see his name here. I don't think he will ever become an elite back in the NFL but I definitely see him being a 20 carry/ 4 ypa kinda guy

Iamcanadian
01-19-2011, 11:27 AM
[QUOTE=JHL6719;2485228]

Cam Newton --- small bust potential, obviously has a huge upside due to pocket presence and mental toughness.
Ryan Mallett --- huge bust potential due to having no escapability in the pocket, very poor feet
Greg Little
Jonathan Baldwin
Nate Solder
Ras-I Dowling
Rahim Moore
DeAndre McDaniel
Akeem Ayers
Marvin Austin
Nick Fairley --- no bust potential unless injuries come into the equation. Likely to go 1/2 in the draft along with Bowers. remember, they are just juniors with their best years still ahead of them.
Da'Quan Bowers --- little bust potential unless again injuries raise their ugly head.

The rest are not considered super great prospects and these types always carry some risk.

Nalej
01-19-2011, 12:25 PM
Allen Bailey

GaMeTiMe
01-19-2011, 12:47 PM
Ingram??? Im surprised to see his name here. I don't think he will ever become an elite back in the NFL but I definitely see him being a 20 carry/ 4 ypa kinda guy

I'm not a fan of Ingram. A back doesn't have to be elite all-around to garner intrest from me as a prospect, but he just doesn't have "it". I don't doubt his ability to be a very good backup RB in the league for a while, but a team like Miami that drafts him as a starter shouldn't expect more than 60-80 YPG with a typical lead-back workload. I think Chester Taylor.

Iamcanadian
01-19-2011, 03:14 PM
I'm not a fan of Ingram. A back doesn't have to be elite all-around to garner intrest from me as a prospect, but he just doesn't have "it". I don't doubt his ability to be a very good backup RB in the league for a while, but a team like Miami that drafts him as a starter shouldn't expect more than 60-80 YPG with a typical lead-back workload. I think Chester Taylor.

Gee, 60 yards a game = 960yds for the season and 80yds a game = 1280 yards for the season, hardly bust #'s.

DeathbyStat
01-19-2011, 03:34 PM
Cam Newton-agreed high bust ability

Ryan Mallett-agreed, could be Derek Anderson or Byron Leftwich like

Jonathan Baldwin-haven't had this confirmed but seems to have a poor attitude, immense physical talent might be able to fit it together

Nate Solder-might be too tall to get proper leverage on small fast defenders like Clay Matthews, Dwight Freeney and James Harrison

Ras-I Dowling-better at free safety?

DeAndre McDaniel-his luster as a prospect has worn off by now so he can't be considered that big of a bust. Might be a mid round pick

Akeem Ayers-depends on the scheme, I think he is a weak side line backer in the 4-3 not a rush 3-4 backer like some have him pegged

Marvin Austin-never lived up to high school hype, why would the pros be any different. I bet the bengals take him.

Nick Fairley-Could be great, could lead the league in personal foul penalties and be a slug like Albert Haynesworth. Typical boom or bust. Much better in the 4-3

Da'Quan Bowers-Don't think he will completely bust, could not live up to expectations kinda like Mario Williams early in his career, but won't be out of the league after three seasons

wogitalia
01-19-2011, 11:14 PM
Cam Newton --- small bust potential, obviously has a huge upside due to pocket presence and mental toughness.
Ryan Mallett --- huge bust potential due to having no escapability in the pocket, very poor feet
Greg Little
Jonathan Baldwin
Nate Solder
Ras-I Dowling
Rahim Moore
DeAndre McDaniel
Akeem Ayers
Marvin Austin
Nick Fairley --- no bust potential unless injuries come into the equation. Likely to go 1/2 in the draft along with Bowers. remember, they are just juniors with their best years still ahead of them.
Da'Quan Bowers --- little bust potential unless again injuries raise their ugly head.


You don't work for the Bengals by an chance do you? You have completely thrown character concerns out the window on any of your guys, Newton, if he was a different person would be an amazing prospect but it's his character concerns that make him only a very good prospect and that give him the massive bust potential.

SenorGato
01-19-2011, 11:56 PM
Allen Bailey

This. I call him the Vernon Gholston of this draft.

Others:

Nick Fairley - Just because supposedly he's kind of a prick.
Phil Taylor - Penn State and Baylor...not exactly my dream schools for a badass NT type prospect.
AJ Green - I worry that he's not stout enough right now and might be open to injury early in his career...obviously a minor knock based on bs but I'm not sure I believe he's the best player in this draft as he's ranked by Scott. Doesn't mean bust, probably more overrated...
Bowers - Looks like Tarzan and plays like Jane.
Gabbert - 1st round just seems high to me right now...
Adrian Clayborn - Not as good as he was hyped to be last year, and was arguably the 3rd best DL for Iowa this year behind Ballard and Klug.
Locker - How beat up is he mentally and physically? Hopefully very very little.

critesy
01-20-2011, 12:08 AM
technically everyone ?

Nebula
02-16-2011, 06:32 PM
Akeem Ayers. A crappier version of Aaron Curry, really

J255979-11nine
02-16-2011, 07:24 PM
Akeem Ayers. A crappier version of Aaron Curry, really

Except bigger and softer...

ellsy82
02-16-2011, 10:00 PM
Mel Kiper.

SimonRath
02-16-2011, 10:06 PM
[QUOTE=JHL6719;2485228]


Nick Fairley --- no bust potential unless injuries come into the equation. Likely to go 1/2 in the draft along with Bowers. remember, they are just juniors with their best years still ahead of them.


to say he has NO bust potential is a little crazy talk.